AuthorTopic: Fourth Turning Accelerating  (Read 4956 times)

Offline Surly1

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Re: Fourth Turning Accelerating
« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2014, 01:11:24 AM »


Of course you do my dear, dear William. To those standing there with their bronze shield being bashed in by an iron spear, it certainly looked like doom as well. Might have very well been Doom, personal Doom.//

As long as "doom" is just the bitching and whining and complaints of those who don't like change, sure, doom here, doom there, doom everywhere. But that kind of no more restraint on RE driving his SUV around at the extreme end of the supply chain for liquid fuels beyond price…availability hasn't been an issue since the REAL energy crisis of the 70's when rationing was instituted in the US…but that happened because the government was interfering with the market, rather than letting it work itself out as it did during the last pseudo crisis of 2008.

Oh, my dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear  Emmie... One wonders aloud, once again, why a person would frequent "doom" boards when one so disagrees with the premises. Your tone of open mockery and your penchant for consistent disinformation put us in mind of your boss. No, not the extractive industries that pay your fees, but your ultimate boss. Your real boss.

Quote
You are of your father the devil, and you want to do the desires of your father. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not stand in the truth because there is no truth in him. Whenever he speaks a lie, he speaks from his own nature, for he is a liar and the father of lies.  -John 8:44

Speaking thus "from your own nature," you would have readers believe that the oil companies did not have a role in constructing an automobile- and gasoline-dependent society. You beggar history. Unfortunately for Emmie the King, there are people on this board who were alive during the 70s oil shocks, and who remember that the causes of them were not, as King says, "government interference in the markets," (the favored bugaboo of cartel-worshippers everywhere) but the OPEC oil embargo:

Quote
There were a series of energy crises between 1967 and 1979 caused by problems in the Middle East but the most significant started in 1973 when Arab oil producers imposed an embargo.

The decision to boycott America and punish the west in response to support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war against Egypt led the price of crude to rise from $3 per barrel to $12 by 1974.

Read the entire Guardian article at your leisure here to acquaint yourself with the facts, and to clease your palate of MKing's constant sour disinfo.

And if you don't like the guardian, there is Wikipedia:
Quote
The two worst crises of this period were the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis, caused by interruptions in exports from the Middle East, for example in 1979 due to the Iranian Revolution.[2]

The crisis period began to unfold as a result of events at the end of the 1960s. It was during this time that petroleum production in major producers like the United States and some other parts of the world peaked.[3] Subsequent to the Seventies, world oil production per capita peaked.[4]

The major industrial centers of the world were forced to contend with escalating issues related to petroleum supply. Western countries relied on the resources of potentially unfriendly countries in the Middle East and other parts of the world.

The crisis led to stagnant economic growth in many countries as oil prices climbed. Though there were genuine issues with supply, part of the run-up in prices resulted from the perception of a crisis. The combination of stagnant growth and price inflation during this era led to the coinage of the term stagflation.[5]

By the 1980s, both the recessions of the 1970s and adjustments in local economies to become more efficient in petroleum usage, controlled demand sufficiently enough for petroleum prices worldwide to return to more sustainable levels.


So the lesson to be learned here is, when MKing makes any supposedly factual statement of any sort, turn your fact checker on. The merest search will immediately reveal the Potemkin village aspect of his assertions.

« Last Edit: June 20, 2014, 02:36:14 AM by Surly1 »
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Offline MKing

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Re: Fourth Turning Accelerating
« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2014, 07:24:25 AM »
And the oil age ends because people are making a conscience decision, or forced by their governments aka elected representatives with fascist tendencies (modern version of getting ones head cut off), to emit less CO2 during their discretionary wanderings to and fro, Little Johnny to Little League, Little Johnny to school when the temps go under 55F, goodness knows otherwise he might get a cold. Just as the Bronze age did not end evenly or all at once, so to the oil age is not ending evenly, or all at once.

No, the Age of Oil is not coming to a close because people are making a conscience decision to use less OR because Goobermints are forcing them to emit less CO2, the Age of Oil is coming to a close because J6P has been bankrupted by it, and so have Goobermints and Corporations.

Oh please. With the ability to print money, no goobermint is required to be bankrupted by anything, a common misconception once applied to Helicopter Ben as well and what were perceived as his tendencies to "save" the country, turns out, it was everyone else who thought printing money was bad who were wrong.

Now, devaluing currency, as GO would tell you if he were permitted, is a bad thing. But that is often a choice of goobermints over bankruptcy, just devalue the standard of living of every citizen by some amount until things balance.

Certainly oil has proven that $100 is quite a sustainable price, economically speaking, and you filling up your tank is just as much proof of it as Sulry filling up his...those of us who use other fuels as part of the new transition having already seen the iron spear tip going through your bronze shield, so to speak. Evolution in action.

Quote from: RE
I already dropped on the exponential graphs for debt at all levels, this seems to not have penetrated your damaged brain.  The entire industrial economy is oversaturated with debt, and you can't sell Oil or Natural Gas at ANY price to BROKE PEOPLE.

And just as you once claimed that average income was approaching zero in your "i was right" prediction days, obviously people aren't broke enough to STOP buying all those old fashioned liquid fuels. You. Your friends. Your neighbors. Everyone in suburbia. While graphs are nice in representing trends, they are also not near as useful as even the most cursory comparison to reality, reality trumping poorly digested information, no matter how pretty a graph. And reality says folks are buying millions of barrels a day of refined products, have been, will be tomorrow, and your graph cant stop that, and might not even be relevant. As far as what nothing but your relative words like "oversaturated" even mean, I would refer again to Helicopter Ben. People claiming the same thing you are now have already proven they don't know what the saturation point even is. What you haven't produced, NEVER as best I can tell going back through your work here and at PO.com, is anything resembling a cost of supply or demand curve to make your point. Standard for economists to explain how shifts take place, shifts for everything really, and a technique that anyone who deals with real economists understands pretty well. Needed to even speak their language..any blogger can take a graph from an insurance actuary, frame a story around it for doom...or not....and then pretend they know...well....something. Call it the fallacy of digested information, versus those of us who do science from first order principles.

Quote from: RE
Entire Nation-States particularly in the PIIGS nations are being triaged off the credit bandwagon, so those populations are close to done as consumers of Oil and NG.

Can you explain how this shifts the supply and demand curves, thereby predicting price? It is quite easy, and would at least add veneer of authenticity to your grndstanding. Would you like some help? I could probably recommend some Econ101 texts for all the theory you need to understand how the basics work, and then perhaps a spreadsheet program allowing you to move them around until you can speak pigdin economics? While I am admittedly not an educator, this one is even within my grasp to show others.

Quote from: RE
"Conservation by Other Means" as Steve refers to it on Economic Undertow.

perhaps because he can't show the supply and demand curves either? Certainly in Econ 101 you learn what price is, why it exists, what it means. Some people have claimed that high prices "ration" a thing, obviously they don't understand price at all. The economics of conservation and substitution are well known, and covered in Econ 101 as well. This all then relates  back to the marginal barrel cost...does he mention that as well? Because as any resource economist will tell you, we KNOW where those marginal barrels are in the future. That's the easy part, the engineering perspective is the cost to surface of those barrels. IEA answered that one back in about 2009, putting the upper constraint on this system. The good news being it isn't all that much higher than prices today, and the EIA in their future price projections appears to be a little more pessimistic, but not all that much. I assume Steve covers all these pieces, rather than just using some cool sounding words that make a real economist cringe in the misapplication?

Quote from: RE
As the economic system collapses, less credit is available in total, and credit extended to drillers to drill is less credit available for consumers to consume.

Good thing the economic system is no more collapsing now, than when you thought it was, then. Then being 2008.

Quote from: RE
This of course will not last long either, since said Goobermints will also collapse in a Smoking Pile of Rubble, just like the Coal Mine Canaries Greece & Ukraine.

So plays out the End of the Age of Industrialization.

RE

Goobermints have been collapsing before Colin Campbell kicked off the modern peak oil fear meme in 1989, or Hirsch proclaimed the great oil scare of the early-1990's because of OPEC market dominance, or Richard Duncan declared the Olduvai Gorge in 2008, or Ehrlich proclaimed the great food dieoff in the 70's, or the tree's disappeared in the early 1900's, iron was exhausted in the late 1800's, or there wasn't enough food according to Malthus in the early 1800's. Certainly REAL collapsing governments (versus the more local skirmishes and lowering of standards of living you refer to) haven't even really been able to stop population growth, or economic growth, or the development of ever more complex systems allowing ever more higher population levels to be supported. Perhaps I am too strict with what "collapse" means, as has been discussed previously, I don't distract easily with political disruption no different than what humans have been causing for themselves for centuries now.

Certainly I understand the comfort it gives folks to be able to point at some example of...something...and proclaim that folks, this...IS IT!!!! Such theatrics were the basics of LATOC, and allowed Matt to monetize his notoriety into BAU, as you have expressed hopes in doing. Counterbalancing his success as a BAU astrologer is the story of Ruppert. Don't know if you've been following Jenna's account of his psychological issues, paranoia, dependency issues, daily suicidal interludes, crying, drinking, involuntary committments, abject inability to even socialize with other humans, about every symptom you can have for being a ward of the state. Some would characterize this as something akin to "when you stare into the abyss, sometimes the abyss stares back" kind of thing, but it certainly discredits nearly everything he has ever done, explains his involvement with the likes of Vreeland, and perhaps explains why his early ability to monetize theatrical doom collapsed. I wonder if Martenson doesn't have the best business model for monetizing Doom, maybe there is something there you can investigate?

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline RE

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Re: Fourth Turning Accelerating
« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2014, 02:27:45 PM »
With the ability to print money, no goobermint is required to be bankrupted by anything

Goobermints don't print money Moriarty, Banksters do.  Here in the FSoA, it's Da Fed, in Europe it's the ECB.  In both cases private corporations owned by the TBTF Banks.  This right was signed over to the TBTF Banks by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  I suggest you get caught up on your History.

What Goobermints issue is DEBT, which the Banksters buy with money they print.  YOU are expected to service this debt by paying taxes.  However, when the debt service becomes greater than Da Goobermint can collect in tax revenue, it most certainly can go bankrupt.  Just look at Argentina, Greece, Ireland etc etc etc.  In the case of these small countries, they get bailed out by the IMF, which itself is BK and funded by BK countries.

If Goobermints didn't have to worry about going BK, why would anyone care how big the Federal Deficit is?  Just keep issuing more debt forever!  Which of course is what they are doing, but you live in la-la land if you think this gimmickry works in perpetuity.

Stick to geochemistry.  Your understanding of economics obviously comes from an Econ 101 class at an Energy Industry Trade School.

RE
« Last Edit: June 21, 2014, 12:26:17 AM by RE »
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Offline MKing

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Re: Fourth Turning Accelerating
« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2014, 03:55:42 PM »
Oh, my dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear  Emmie... One wonders aloud, once again, why a person would frequent "doom" boards when one so disagrees with the premises.

Easy answer….ridiculous ramblings ignoring reality are not a "premise" of Doom, and it is b because I feel the same, skin crawling disgust that SOMETHING needs to be done…felt it this very weekend at one of those shopping centers that exists only to spend money to prove that the person has money to spend. Wanton surplus, WASTING surplus, just…because.

Certainly any scientist will tell you that examining all possibilities is nothing but due diligence within the profession. Against all odds a blogger might come along with an independent thought of value, the data, a concept, something to show that yep…that explains it.

In the world of physical science, highly skewed probability distributions are the norm, so I am the last person to discount the effect and value of low probability, high impact events.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline RE

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Re: Fourth Turning Accelerating
« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2014, 08:56:48 PM »
low probability, high impact events.

The Diner in a NUTSHELL.  :icon_sunny:

Now at 356K on Alexa!



RE
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Offline RE

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New Quote of the Month!
« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2014, 12:52:48 AM »
With the ability to print money, no goobermint is required to be bankrupted by anything

Goobermints don't print money Moriarty, Banksters do.  Here in the FSoA, it's Da Fed, in Europe it's the ECB.  In both cases private corporations owned by the TBTF Banks.  This right was signed over to the TBTF Banks by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  I suggest you get caught up on your History.

What Goobermints issue is DEBT, which the Banksters buy with money they print.  YOU are expected to service this debt by paying taxes.  However, when the debt service becomes greater than Da Goobermint can collect in tax revenue, it most certainly can go bankrupt.  Just look at Argentina, Greece, Ireland etc etc etc.  In the case of these small countries, they get bailed out by the IMF, which itself is BK and funded by BK countries.

If Goobermints didn't have to worry about going BK, why would anyone care how big the Federal Deficit is?  Just keep issuing more debt forever!  Which of course is what they are doing, but you live in la-la land if you think this gimmickry works in perpetuity.

Stick to geochemistry.  Your understanding of economics obviously comes from an Econ 101 class at an Energy Industry Trade School.

RE

I dropped this one on a Quote of the Month:icon_mrgreen:

RE
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