AuthorTopic: Putin Advisor Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance" To Halt US Aggression Abroad  (Read 11060 times)

Offline Randy C

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From Zerohedge.  Interesting piece, worthy of discussion.
Randy C

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-18/putin-advisor-proposes-anti-dollar-alliance-halt-us-foreign-aggression

It has been a while since both Ukraine, and the ongoing Russian response to western sanctions (which set off the great Eurasian axis in motion, pushing China and Russia close together, and accelerating the "Holy Grail" gas deal between the two countries) have made headlines. It is still not clear just why the western media dropped Ukraine coverage like a hot potato, especially since the civil war in Ukraine's Donbas continues to rage and claim dozens of casualties on both sides. Perhaps the audience has simply gotten tired of hearing about mixed chess/checkers game between Putin vs Obama, and instead has reverted to reading the propaganda surrounding just as deadly events in the third war of Iraq in as many decades.

However, "out of sight" may be just what Russia's political elite wants. In fact, as VoR's  Valentin Māndr??escu reports, while the great US spin and distraction machine is focused elsewhere, Russia is already preparing for the next steps. Which brings us to Putin advisor Sergey Glazyev, the same person who in early March was the first to suggest Russia dump US bonds and abandon the dollar in retaliation to US sanctions, a strategy which worked because even as the Kremlin has retained control over Crimea, western sanctions have magically halted (and not only that, but as the Russian central bank just reported, the country's 2014 current account surplus may be as high as $35 billion, up from $33 billion in 2013, and a far cry from some fabricated "$200+ billion" in Russian capital outflows which Mario Draghi was warning about recently). Glazyev was also the person instrumental in pushing the Kremlin to approach China and force the nat gas deal with Beijing which took place not necessarily at the most beneficial terms for Russia.

It is this same Glazyev who published an article in Russian Argumenty Nedeli, in which he outlined a plan for "undermining the economic strength of the US" in order to force Washington to stop the civil war in Ukraine. Glazyev believes that the only way of making the US give up its plans on starting a new cold war is to crash the dollar system.

As summarized by VoR, in his article, published by Argumenty Nedeli, Putin's economic aide and the mastermind behind the Eurasian Economic Union, argues that Washington is trying to provoke a Russian military intervention in Ukraine, using the junta in Kiev as bait. If fulfilled, the plan will give Washington a number of important benefits. Firstly, it will allow the US to introduce new sanctions against Russia, writing off Moscow's portfolio of US Treasury bills. More important is that a new wave of sanctions will create a situation in which Russian companies won't be able to service their debts to European banks.

According to Glazyev, the so-called "third phase" of sanctions against Russia will be a tremendous cost for the European Union. The total estimated losses will be higher than 1 trillion euros. Such losses will severely hurt the European economy, making the US the sole "safe haven" in the world. Harsh sanctions against Russia will also displace Gazprom from the European energy market, leaving it wide open for the much more expensive LNG from the US.

Co-opting European countries in a new arms race and military operations against Russia will increase American political influence in Europe and will help the US force the European Union to accept the American version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a trade agreement that will basically transform the EU into a big economic colony of the US. Glazyev believes that igniting a new war in Europe will only bring benefits for America and only problems for the European Union. Washington has repeatedly used global and regional wars for the benefit of  the American economy and now the White House is trying to use the civil war in Ukraine as a pretext to repeat the old trick.

Glazyev's set of countermeasures specifically targets the core strength of the US war machine, i.e. the Fed's printing press. Putin's advisor proposes the creation of a "broad anti-dollar alliance" of countries willing and able to drop the dollar from their international trade. Members of the alliance would also refrain from keeping the currency reserves in dollar-denominated instruments. Glazyev advocates treating positions in dollar-denominated instruments like holdings of junk securities and believes that regulators should require full collateralization of such holdings. An anti-dollar coalition would be the first step for the creation of an anti-war coalition that can help stop the US' aggression.

Unsurprisingly, Sergey Glazyev believes that the main role in the creation of such a political coalition is to be played by the European business community because America's attempts to ignite a war in Europe and a cold war against Russia are threatening the interests of big European business. Judging by the recent efforts to stop the sanctions against Russia, made by the German, French, Italian and Austrian business leaders, Putin's aide is right in his assessment. Somewhat surprisingly for Washington, the war for Ukraine may soon become the war for Europe's independence from the US and a war against the dollar.

Offline Surly1

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It only matters if you get paid in, have savings or investments in, or hold assets denominated in dollars.

 :icon_mrgreen:

Yet try to engage the general run of folks on this subject. And let us know how it goes. If you're anything like me, people will look at you like you've grown a second head or a pair of horns.

No one can wrap their heads around the implications of NOT having the dollar as the reserve. Been a fact of life for so long, any other alternative is unimaginable.

There was discussion in the bowels of the forum a couple of years ago about what really backstops the FSoA currency is not gold but the nuclear arsenal. It will be interesting to see what kind of hardball the neocons driving the bus are willing to play, all on our "behalf."
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Randy C

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It only matters if you get paid in, have savings or investments in, or hold assets denominated in dollars.

 :icon_mrgreen:

Yet try to engage the general run of folks on this subject. And let us know how it goes. If you're anything like me, people will look at you like you've grown a second head or a pair of horns.

No one can wrap their heads around the implications of NOT having the dollar as the reserve. Been a fact of life for so long, any other alternative is unimaginable.

There was discussion in the bowels of the forum a couple of years ago about what really backstops the FSoA currency is not gold but the nuclear arsenal. It will be interesting to see what kind of hardball the neocons driving the bus are willing to play, all on our "behalf."

Surly1, that's what happened to me when I was looking at things in a different way when I was at DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency).  Don't ever suggest that the accepted story is wrong!  It doesn't matter.  Pick your topic.  Yes, questioning the status quot will get you branded as a "one eye one horned flying purple people eater!"  So, I get your point.  We can't image what the world will look like without the dollar.  I don't know if the Russians can do it but interest in a change in the international reserve currency is growing.

Perhaps, gold is not that important any more, if there was anything else to base the dollar on it would be oil, but the US is kind of short on that, so what is left is international influence and that is driven by military and economic power.  As time goes on the economic power continues to fade but the military power remains, at least for a while yet. 

As to the neocons, they are not going to give up any time soon.  Having done a masters degree under one of them I have an appreciation for how they see the world and what they are capable of.  Dr. William R. Van Cleave never saw a nuclear weapon he didn't like.

Offline Eddie

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It only matters if you get paid in, have savings or investments in, or hold assets denominated in dollars.


Ever try explaining to your wife why you should trade in your dollars and buy Norwegian Krone? (Which is currently falling in value, I might add.)

Deer in the headlights look, followed by change of subject. She's already mad at me for getting out of the stock market and missing the QE ride.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline jdwheeler42

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No one can wrap their heads around the implications of NOT having the dollar as the reserve. Been a fact of life for so long, any other alternative is unimaginable.
Logically, there are only two other alternatives:

1. Something else becomes the reserve currency.
2. Nothing else becomes the reserve currency.

In the first case, this leads directly to the question, what?  Gold? Maybe... if it goes to $100,000 an ounce.  Otherwise there simply isn't enough of it.  The renmibi?  Maybe... if China becomes an independent economic powerhouse.  As long as it is depending on the US as its primary customer, that'll never work.  A basket of currencies?  Please! That's almost the same as none.  A single world currency?  Maybe... if there is a world dictatorship.  Otherwise, look at all the trouble the Euro is having.

If you can think of any other candidates for a world reserve currency, I'd love to hear them.

What does the second case mean?  The end of the global marketplace as we know it.  You could no longer "sell" one commodity and "buy" another, you would have to make the physical trades, because no one would be trusting any pieces of paper anymore to hold value in between.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline MKing

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Ever try explaining to your wife why you should trade in your dollars and buy Norwegian Krone? (Which is currently falling in value, I might add.)

Deer in the headlights look, followed by change of subject. She's already mad at me for getting out of the stock market and missing the QE ride.

Betting against doom certainly has been wildly successful, she ought to be mad at you. You could have paid for a Volt in cash and kept all the givebacks on the tax credits, built out more garden, hired a semi-legal worker to tend the hunting cabin when you aren't there, and keep the place all ready to go like some folks do with hobby farms in New England.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline steve from virginia

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Quote
Glazyev's set of countermeasures specifically targets the core strength of the US war machine, i.e. the Fed's printing press. Putin's advisor proposes the creation of a "broad anti-dollar alliance" of countries willing and able to drop the dollar from their international trade.

Glazyev does not know how finance works.

 - The Fed (and other central banks) don't print money. (Zero Hedge does not know how finance works, either.) Dollar finance comes from Wall Street and the ten- or so large banks that do most of dollar lending. Central banks cannot make unsecured loans, if they do their entire financing regime collapses.

 - If countries cannot issue their own credit in their own currency they must use some other country's currency or remain undeveloped. It is the provision of credit -- over time -- that determines if a country industrializes or not. Countries are forced to borrow overseas because they lack the infrastructure needed to create their own, organic credit.

 - If borrowing countries do not use the dollar they must use some other credit issuer's currency such as pound-sterling, euro or yen. These are reserve currencies.

 - International credit providers issue reserve currency: in the main, borrowers use some of the foreign currency for trade and hold the rest as 'reserves'; amounts in excess of that needed for day-to-day operations. Reserve currencies are issued by nations that run ongoing trade deficits ... which is how the currencies are distributed into circulation. The US not only is the world's greatest credit provider but up until recently the world's consumer of last resort.

 - At the same time, dollar reserves are good for the dollar importers: funds gained by way of trade are used as collateral for the issuance of the country's own currency, doubling purchasing power in the process. Spurning dollars is self-defeating for Russia: fewer dollars means shrinking purchasing power in roubles => bankruptcy as roubles become too scarce- or worth too little to be used to service rouble-denominated debts.

 - Well managed countries with necessary credit infrastructure are not reserve currency providers when they are too small: Switzerland, Singapore, Taiwan.

 - Nations borrow foreign currency if they cannot provide credit in their own, or they rely on foreign currency to set the price of their own so as to maintain a mercantile trade advantage. Foreign currency is borrowed to manage currency costs associated with trade between countries with illiquid currencies, such as between Malaysia and india.

Because Russia is a petro-state it has no choice but to accept foreign currencies. These are shuffled to elites who remove them from Russia for their own use: mansions in London and New York, mega-yachts, artworks, etc. Losers are ordinary Russian citizens who have little access to foreign exchange but are stuck with increasing rouble debts on one hand, diminished ability to service and retire them on the other. Tycoons borrow which is how they become tycoons, they compel or trick others to repay. Whether the others struggle to do so is irrelevant to the tycoons. 

The advantage of dollars is they are always available on the world's currency markets in any quantity, also there is a vast, liquid US bond market where dollars can be swapped for interest-bearing bonds on demand. Europe's bond market is wildly distorted due to absent risk premium; the yen bond market is broken; sterling market is too small relative to the size of Russian fuel trade ... that leaves the dollar as default. No dollar and Russia cannot sell its fuel without offering a big discount = bankruptcy for underwater Russian drillers.

BTW: neither Russia nor China are credit providers, they lack needed infrastructure components. On the plus side: they both have their own currencies, China has a strong banking system, Russia does not; both countries have central bank lenders of last resort, both have treasuries able to issue debt, that is, both countries' governments borrow. On the minus side: yuan does not trade freely on currency exchange markets, the rouble not at all; Russia has no bond market and China's is constricted; Russia recognizes private property, China to a modest extent; neither country is possessed of the rule of law; there are no enforceable contracts in either country. Loans in roubles and yuan tend to be predatory and one-sided with little-or-no recourse for borrowers, both governments are autocratic, jurisprudence is arbitrary and/or farcical, there are no useful courts or redress or means to settle disputes, both countries are absolutely and totally corrupt from top to bottom. China pegs its currency to the dollar and maintains the peg by purchasing US securities to secure the trade advantage. Both depend on dollar- and euro loans to keep their massive cost structures afloat.

Any sort of energy conservation policy in this country would crush both economies along with those of other autocrats in Saudia, Iran, across the Middle East and elsewhere. The autocrats blow up- grasp at straws because there is inadvertent conservation by other means.

Outside of oil and gas Russia has little to offer anyone, including its own citizens. Russia = empty, bored and dispirited country. Why the government chose to start an adventure in Ukraine is unknown but no smarter than the US govt adventure begun in the Middle East. Perhaps the Russians want to repeat American errors. After decades of Soviet failure and ennui Russians find themselves engulfed in post-Soviet Putinista version larded with the same hollow, nationalist rhetoric. The difference between Soviets and Putin is the latter has no ideals to promote, no chains of history to break, not even ideology. Instead, there is steady decay and fear of what comes next.

The 'super deal' between Russia and China will not bear fruit for another ten years. It is not likely there will be any gas to ship to China nor industries in China to use the gas in ten years.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2014, 08:45:18 AM by steve from virginia »

Offline Palloy

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The rules at the IMF say every vote needs more than 85% to pass, so 15+% is a blocking vote. There is only one country with a blocking vote at the moment - US with 16.75%. Under the 2010 Reforms, agreed to by Obama, but not ratified by Congress, US's 16.75% will be reduced to 16.5%, so still a blocking vote, but it is now within 10% of no longer being a blocking vote. 

The impact of the end of the petrodollar could well see inflation in the US rising, as petrodollars flow back to NY. Buyers of Treasury Bonds would offer to pay less for them, to make the yield rise, making repaying even the interest on government debt impossible. At this point the US would have to go to the IMF and ask for a bail-out. The dynamics would be completely different then, with the US not wanting to exercise its veto power under any circumstances.

The IMF would insist on severe austerity measures, naturally, which would push the US below the 15% blocking threshold, and end its stranglehold on IMF business for ever.  China (along with all the BRICS) has been pushing for an increased role for Special Drawing Rights to replace the Dollar as reserve currency. If the world's economy is still functioning at all in this chaos, SDRs would work OK, and would be the only solution immediately available.

So what could trigger the end of the petrodollar?  Well, Saudi Arabia is mightily pissed off with the US over its continued support for Israel, the on-going war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, the on-going use of drones in Pakistan, its failure to support ISIS in Syria, the rapprochement with Iran,  and now the threatened use of air power against ISIS in Iraq.  So Saudi (along with most of the GCC) could break the petrodollar at a stroke, and indirectly, force the infidels to withdraw from the Middle East without a fight.

If Russia were to trigger this "anti-dollar alliance", that could well be enough to make Saudi go for its own plan.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2014, 09:26:52 PM by Palloy »
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Offline RE

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The IMF would insist on severe austerity measures

The IMF is in no position to insist on anything.  They are broke.

RE
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Offline Palloy

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The IMF would insist on severe austerity measures

The IMF is in no position to insist on anything.  They are broke.

RE
Evidence?

If the US loses its "faith and credit", the IMF will be the only institution that the world can turn to, so they will not lose their "faith and credit", and so they will not be broke when put to the test.

The international elite have no special loyalty to each other, and certainly none to US Government.  Austerity in the US will create lots of opportunities for predatory activities there.  After hubris, nemesis.
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Offline RE

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The IMF would insist on severe austerity measures

The IMF is in no position to insist on anything.  They are broke.

RE
Evidence?

If the US loses its "faith and credit", the IMF will be the only institution that the world can turn to, so they will not lose their "faith and credit", and so they will not be broke when put to the test.

The international elite have no special loyalty to each other, and certainly none to US Government.  Austerity in the US will create lots of opportunities for predatory activities there.  After hubris, nemesis.

If the FSoA loses "Faith & Credit", so does Germany, Japan, UK etc.  The main funding for the IMF comes from these countries, which all are themselves fundamentally BK.

Christine LaGarde has been jawboning moving IMF HQ to China, looking for China as a backstop to the IMF.  Problems there are first that China is also broke, particularly if all their USTs are worthless toilet paper.  Besides that, Steve already dropped in to explain why neither China or Russia can step up to the plate as a provider of organic credit.

When Da Fed collapses, the IMF, the World Bank and the BIS all collapse with it. They are all parts of the same credit system established in the aftermath of WWII.  When the Dollar finally does collapse, it is the end of this sort of monetary system for quite a long time; to quite likely forever.  Neither our Illuminati friends in Brussels nor Vlad the Impaler or China can fix Humpty Dumpty once he comes toppling down off the wall.

"All the Kings Horses and all the Kings Men
Could not put Humpty Dumpty Together Again."



I thought I made this clear by explaining how The Money Valve works.  Guess I need to try again.

RE

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Offline Surly1

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The IMF would insist on severe austerity measures

The IMF is in no position to insist on anything.  They are broke.

RE

Being broke will not stop them from insisting. Insisting is what they do.

Every country still has some publicly held assets to privatize. "Privatization" is part of the agenda for the new world order, or haven't you kept up? As long as there remains a crust of bread with which to feed the poor child, the IMF cry will continue to be "Austerity!" "Privatize!" "Knuckle Under!" Just a global version of the "gangsters coup" that ensued right here in the FS of A in 2008.

It's STILL a big club, and you ain't in it.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Being broke will not stop them from insisting. Insisting is what they do.

Every country still has some publicly held assets to privatize. "Privatization" is part of the agenda for the new world order, or haven't you kept up? As long as there remains a crust of bread with which to feed the poor child, the IMF cry will continue to be "Austerity!" "Privatize!" "Knuckle Under!" Just a global version of the "gangsters coup" that ensued right here in the FS of A in 2008.

It's STILL a big club, and you ain't in it.

No Surly, NO COUNTRY has "assets" left to Privatize, they all only have Liabilities left over from the Age of Oil.  Electrical Grid and Power Companies? Endless money sink the consumers cannot pay for anymore.  Road System?  People can't afford the fucking GAS, you think they can afford to pay Tolls too?

This juggernaut is GOING DOWN here now.  Glad I opted out of the club.  Dumbkopfs!

The Emperor is going Naked here now, and quite a fast Strip Tease too at this point.  I mean REALLY, Michelle Obama-sama doing Twitter Diplomacy?  This is the best they can muster up here?  My fucking rants are better than that.  ::)

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Being broke will not stop them from insisting. Insisting is what they do.

Every country still has some publicly held assets to privatize. "Privatization" is part of the agenda for the new world order, or haven't you kept up? As long as there remains a crust of bread with which to feed the poor child, the IMF cry will continue to be "Austerity!" "Privatize!" "Knuckle Under!" Just a global version of the "gangsters coup" that ensued right here in the FS of A in 2008.

It's STILL a big club, and you ain't in it.

No Surly, NO COUNTRY has "assets" left to Privatize, they all only have Liabilities left over from the Age of Oil.  Electrical Grid and Power Companies? Endless money sink the consumers cannot pay for anymore.  Road System?  People can't afford the fucking GAS, you think they can afford to pay Tolls too?

This juggernaut is GOING DOWN here now.  Glad I opted out of the club.  Dumbkopfs!

The Emperor is going Naked here now, and quite a fast Strip Tease too at this point.  I mean REALLY, Michelle Obama-sama doing Twitter Diplomacy?  This is the best they can muster up here?  My fucking rants are better than that.  ::)

RE

You are either missing my point, or being intentionally obtuse.

There are still public lands. Individuals still own houses, and farmland. There are still public parks. There are public school systems. There are roads and bridges, although here in Virginia we did a superb job of transferring effective ownership of two important bridge systems in Norfolk to Swedish chance for 59 years, in return for a construction project on one of them and a handful of magic beans. It was only because the clock ran out on Gov. transvaginal ultrasound and his cronies that they were not able to successfully transfer ownership of the port of Virginia to private hands.

Look under the hood of these coming "free trade" agreements and you will see that the agenda for the so-called New World order involves  privatization of public assets. These assets remain on the public books whether they fit your theory or not.

No, they are not done looting us yet by a long shot. Any time you have to deal with the public agency that has privatized some aspect of its operations, say towing a car for nonpayment of personal property tax, and you will find yourself falling down a rat hole of inscrutable fees paid to entities accountable to no one. This is what your future looks like.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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You are either missing my point, or being intentionally obtuse.

There are still public lands. Individuals still own houses, and farmland. There are still public parks. There are public school systems. There are roads and bridges, although here in Virginia we did a superb job of transferring effective ownership of two important bridge systems in Norfolk to Swedish chance for 59 years, in return for a construction project on one of them and a handful of magic beans. It was only because the clock ran out on Gov. transvaginal ultrasound and his cronies that they were not able to successfully transfer ownership of the port of Virginia to private hands.

Look under the hood of these coming "free trade" agreements and you will see that the agenda for the so-called New World order involves  privatization of public assets. These assets remain on the public books whether they fit your theory or not.

No, they are not done looting us yet by a long shot. Any time you have to deal with the public agency that has privatized some aspect of its operations, say towing a car for nonpayment of personal property tax, and you will find yourself falling down a rat hole of inscrutable fees paid to entities accountable to no one. This is what your future looks like.

I'm not missing the point, nor am I being intentionally obtuse.  I don't agree the privatization meme will work for any number of reasons.

Start with the bridges sold to Sven & Lars over in Stockholm.  Now they are stuck with doing the maintenance on these bridges.  When user fees from Tolls dry up because nobody can afford the gas to drive over them, they have nothing but a rotting bridge a few 1000 miles from where they live.

What are investors going to do with Public Parks they buy?  Build new Malls?  There are empty Malls all over the country they can buy for pennies on the Dollar.


Far as towing off cars goes, if you can't afford the property tax on it you can't afford the gas either so them towing it off saves you the cost of the tow!  LOL.  What are they going to do with this car?  Sell it?  To who?  There are millions of unsold cars already in the channel stuffing pipeline.


It's like with repoing foreclosed on McMansions.  What do you do with it once you got it?  You can't sell it, if it was saleable the person who was foreclosed on would have sold it.  You can't drop the prices on them without further crashing the RE market.  So now the investor in the foreclosed on McMansions is stuck with a lot of maintenance bills, or a demolition bill.

Now, granted the nonsense here will persist a while longer, but I'm looking at the Big Picture here of where it is going in the medium term.  The so-called "assets" of the Age of Oil, whether held publicly or privately are in fact liabilities.  The BEST thing you can do is divest yourself of most of it, or at least not have debt on it so when it goes bye-bye you don't still owe money on it.

This remains a main reason I don't own any land.  Property taxes are bound to rise to unaffordable levels.  Only if you have a community of people on the land might you stand a chance of holding onto it.

RE
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