AuthorTopic: Argentina Likely to Default  (Read 837 times)

Offline Eddie

  • Administrator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15832
    • View Profile
Argentina Likely to Default
« on: July 30, 2014, 08:10:29 AM »
US courts have been trying to put the screws to Argentina. It isn't going to work.


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/as-talks-falter-bond-default-by-argentina-appears-likely/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Administrator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15832
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 11:01:11 AM »
It's official. Argentina is bankrupt again.

http://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-default-2014-7
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Ka

  • Global Moderator
  • Waitstaff
  • *****
  • Posts: 887
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 01:23:02 PM »
It's official. Argentina is bankrupt again.

http://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-default-2014-7

Unfortunately, they are looking for ways to get back to normal, so to speak (ZH had something about JPMorgan helping out to avoid getting hit with CDS defaults). I am waiting for some country to realize that they can get a headstart on what's coming down by defaulting and then withdrawing from the international monetary system. I would think Argentina, as a food exporter, has a better-than-most chance to do this. Russia and Brazil are also possible. So is the US, though convincing its populace would be an order of magnitude more difficult.

Offline Eddie

  • Administrator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15832
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 01:49:12 PM »
convincing its populace would be an order of magnitude more difficult.

I don't know. An awful lot of Americans have filed personal bankruptcy. One in 55 families in 2005 alone.

Yeah, I read the story about JPM, and I hope they have to pay out to Singer et.al....out the wazoo. I wonder what their exposure really is.

I used to bank with JPM. Yesterday I took  the last of those funds and put them in a large local military credit union.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Ashvin

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 2381
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 03:09:52 PM »
convincing its populace would be an order of magnitude more difficult.

I don't know. An awful lot of Americans have filed personal bankruptcy. One in 55 families in 2005 alone.

Does that take into account how many file but don't get a discharge? I know a good % of people don't make it through their ch 13 plans. Either because they repeat the same mistakes or their circumstances simply deteriorate, usually a combination of both. Then you have people who file ch 7 but don't get a discharge because they fail to disclose assets or other silly such things. And then of course you have the people who get discharges and use it as an opportunity to load up on debt again, but this time they are prevented from filing again.

So I'm not sure filing is at all a good indicator of people "waking up" and distancing themselves from the debt-dollar system.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 03:12:25 PM by Ashvin »

Offline Eddie

  • Administrator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15832
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2014, 11:01:21 AM »
That statistic is just one I found on filings. I have no idea how many cases were discharged.

I'd guess that most chapter 7 filings do get discharged, unless there's obvious misstatement of assets. It's quick and done, and I don't think BR judges spend a lot of time checking for malfeasance. It's a reboot for poor people.

 Chapter 13's are a very different kettle of fish, because they typically involve substantial assets and a five year payment plan.

 I know because I've been through it, thanks to the IRS. When you're in business, and they come after you, they put a lien on your checking account and you can't make your payroll. Not very nice. Bankruptcy is the best tool for fighting that. Professionals are considered by IRS agents to be low hanging fruit. Keep that in mind. :)

I made it through the five years, and paid all my creditors 100% in full. I did have to sell some real estate I would have preferred to keep.

My point was just that Americans are generally willing to take advantage of any situation that benefits them financially. And if they understand that default is something that helps them, they might quickly get over any stuffiness about it. Of course, the MSM will tell them it's dishonorable and unpatriotic, I'm sure.



What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Ashvin

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 2381
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2014, 02:20:34 PM »
I'd guess that most chapter 7 filings do get discharged, unless there's obvious misstatement of assets. It's quick and done, and I don't think BR judges spend a lot of time checking for malfeasance. It's a reboot for poor people.

They will if the Trustee asks them to. And I've seen quite a few ch 7 Trustees who get really anal about "assets". Usually those things get resolved with a decent atty, but then again some debtors can't even afford that.

Also a lot of semi-poor debtors get screened out of ch 13 by the 2005 "means test" and/or can't afford to give up their primary residence or vehicle for work, so they may get forced into ch 13.

Quote
Chapter 13's are a very different kettle of fish, because they typically involve substantial assets and a five year payment plan.

 I know because I've been through it, thanks to the IRS. When you're in business, and they come after you, they put a lien on your checking account and you can't make your payroll. Not very nice. Bankruptcy is the best tool for fighting that. Professionals are considered by IRS agents to be low hanging fruit. Keep that in mind. :)

I made it through the five years, and paid all my creditors 100% in full. I did have to sell some real estate I would have preferred to keep.

Yeah, it obviously all depends on what kind of assets and debts are involved. Some people have a lot of assets which can be exempted and debts which are dischargeable, but some are not so fortunate. But most debtors can't afford a 100% plan or even a 50% plan.

Quote
My point was just that Americans are generally willing to take advantage of any situation that benefits them financially. And if they understand that default is something that helps them, they might quickly get over any stuffiness about it. Of course, the MSM will tell them it's dishonorable and unpatriotic, I'm sure.

I don't think there's much of a stigma with filing bankruptcy anymore. I'm just saying there are a lot of factors which don't make it as much of a "reboot" as people think. I also wouldn't count out further pro-creditor changes to the law. It's definitely better than nothing though!

Offline Eddie

  • Administrator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15832
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2014, 05:21:02 PM »
Are you representing bankruptcy clients? Good for you! I consider my BR Attorney to have been a godsend. He really pulled my chestnuts out of the fire. He also became a friend.

I think we went way wrong when we made student loans exempt from bankruptcy. Chapter 7 bankruptcy is a necessary pressure release valve that keeps our debt based money system from being completely destabilized. It benefits the banks most of all, because it allows them to continue the sheep shearing. Without BR we get the kind of serious default situation we're seeing in student loans. That sort of debt, the kind that has to be serviced no matter what, is dangerous for the fabric of society.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Ashvin

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 2381
    • View Profile
Re: Argentina Likely to Default
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2014, 03:36:56 AM »
Are you representing bankruptcy clients? Good for you! I consider my BR Attorney to have been a godsend. He really pulled my chestnuts out of the fire. He also became a friend.

I think we went way wrong when we made student loans exempt from bankruptcy. Chapter 7 bankruptcy is a necessary pressure release valve that keeps our debt based money system from being completely destabilized. It benefits the banks most of all, because it allows them to continue the sheep shearing. Without BR we get the kind of serious default situation we're seeing in student loans. That sort of debt, the kind that has to be serviced no matter what, is dangerous for the fabric of society.

Yes exactly!  :emthup:

Personally, I think it's critical to have a BK system in place, one which functions effectively and discharges the debts which need to be discharged, but it's even more essential to have the moral understanding which underlies the system, the one we read about in the original BK system of the Old Testament.

Both creditors and debtors in this current system view it as a temporary relief valve so that they can get a brief respite before continuing on with the same old ways of irresponsible finance. I try to stress with clients that they need to take it seriously and as an opportunity to change their mentality about their finances, but unfortunately it's very difficult to get that message to stick.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 03:38:29 AM by Ashvin »

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
0 Replies
336 Views
Last post April 10, 2015, 06:40:43 PM
by Palloy
1 Replies
767 Views
Last post August 17, 2015, 12:38:59 PM
by agelbert
1 Replies
370 Views
Last post February 03, 2018, 06:24:34 AM
by Nearingsfault