AuthorTopic: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies  (Read 11022 times)

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2014, 08:21:27 PM »
When some 7 trillion barrels additional…compared to 1.2 trillion used…can be had at real prices (2008$) under $150/bbl, well, "unlimited money" isn't the issue at all.
The real issue is, how many people can afford to pay roughly 50% more for oil?  Last time prices got around $140 a barrel, we had a Great Recession.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2014, 08:41:26 PM »
When some 7 trillion barrels additional…compared to 1.2 trillion used…can be had at real prices (2008$) under $150/bbl, well, "unlimited money" isn't the issue at all.
The real issue is, how many people can afford to pay roughly 50% more for oil?  Last time prices got around $140 a barrel, we had a Great Recession.

Whether or not it was caused by oil prices is debatable.

There is also the question of how much oil we use rather than just the price.

Offline RE

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2014, 08:45:12 PM »
Quote from: Wolf Richter
The sweeps of creative destruction have broken down. Instead, the boundless stream of money has been searching for a place to go, and it went to an economic activity – fracking – where money goes to die. What’s left is debt, and wells, especially gas wells, that will never produce enough to pay off the debt that was incurred to drill them.

Not often do you get to hear the voice of Prophecy.

There it is.

A nice article from Wolf chock full of data.

2 posts in response from Moriarty with absolutely ZERO data which went to DN & F

Quote from: Moriarty
And no one has even mentioned Haliburton, what with their 60+ years of experience doing this horrible, debt laden, stock value destroying..thing?  :icon_sunny:

Why don't you present Halliburton's Annual Report with your analysis and we can discuss it.  Thanks.

RE
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2014, 09:34:25 PM »
Whether or not it was caused by oil prices is debatable.
What causes a forest fire?
A. Oxygen
B. Lack of rain
C. A build up of dead woody material
D. A spark

What causes a gun to be fired?
A. A bullet being loaded in the chamber
B. The safety being disengaged
C. The trigger being pulled

The real answer of course to both those questions is "all of the above", but in most cases when people talk about the cause, they are just talking about the thing that most immediately triggered the event, otherwise known as the proximate cause, which in both cases is the final answer.

The Great Recession similarly had many causes.  But if you ask, what really changed dramatically immediately beforehand that most likely explains the timing, I think the spike in oil prices really fits best as the proximate cause.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2014, 04:15:05 AM »
Whether or not it was caused by oil prices is debatable.
What causes a forest fire?
A. Oxygen
B. Lack of rain
C. A build up of dead woody material
D. A spark

What causes a gun to be fired?
A. A bullet being loaded in the chamber
B. The safety being disengaged
C. The trigger being pulled

The real answer of course to both those questions is "all of the above", but in most cases when people talk about the cause, they are just talking about the thing that most immediately triggered the event, otherwise known as the proximate cause, which in both cases is the final answer.

The Great Recession similarly had many causes.  But if you ask, what really changed dramatically immediately beforehand that most likely explains the timing, I think the spike in oil prices really fits best as the proximate cause.

Hi JD, Yes, you may well be right.

My view is different. My studies leave me to believe it was the bursting of a bubble of the great credit lending into the surreal real estate orgy of speculation that had overtaken the country. The no money down and no income verification part of it having run it's course.

My problem with the oil price scenario is that I have witnessed it go from 19 cents to 4 dollars a gallon over my driving days. and it having little to do with the big resource drain and growth in the process.

Offline azozeo

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM »
The next big bubble to burst will be the auto loan bubble.
Currently, the auto loan market is super e-z to qualify for.
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Online Surly1

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2014, 12:25:31 PM »
The next big bubble to burst will be the auto loan bubble.
Currently, the auto loan market is super e-z to qualify for.

Good call. Someone posted something about that a couple of weeks ago--- memory fails, an all too common occurrence.
Maybe someone else will remember.

Lot of zero per cent loans out there. Fog a mirror, get zero per cent for 60 months.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline MKing

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2014, 04:11:07 PM »

Run of the mill Chevy's don't get 213 mpg. Please put down the crack pipe  ::)

Mine does. Could do even better if I could get the wife and kids to pay attention to their trip timing. Better yet, I've got all the local businesses scoped out that give away fuel for free!!! Can't beat free….

Gizmo Geeks…changing the world…one personal transport owner at a time!!

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Offline MKing

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2014, 04:22:15 PM »
When some 7 trillion barrels additional…compared to 1.2 trillion used…can be had at real prices (2008$) under $150/bbl, well, "unlimited money" isn't the issue at all.
The real issue is, how many people can afford to pay roughly 50% more for oil?  Last time prices got around $140 a barrel, we had a Great Recession.

Which was caused by idiot American home owners thinking that housing bubbles are a great way to borrow money they can't afford to repay. And the banks encouraging such ignorance for their own benefit.

The good news being, people have become quite accustomed to the $100 oil range…and are still flying here and there for mundane items, buying trucks and cars, hell even Doomers have RVs as spare vehicles to use as escape vehicles during the Zombiepocalypse that is taking it owns sweet time in arriving! Fuel prices can't even stop big rigs from doing their JIT delivery thing!!
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2014, 06:16:01 PM »
The next big bubble to burst will be the auto loan bubble.
Currently, the auto loan market is super e-z to qualify for.

Good call. Someone posted something about that a couple of weeks ago--- memory fails, an all too common occurrence.
Maybe someone else will remember.

Lot of zero per cent loans out there. Fog a mirror, get zero per cent for 60 months.
If only they were just zero percent... and no money down....

I know people who are adding the payoff from their old car loans from the cars they are trading in to get negative-equity loans on their new cars.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline MKing

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2014, 06:31:41 PM »

I know people who are adding the payoff from their old car loans from the cars they are trading in to get negative-equity loans on their new cars.

Sure. When money is costing 0%, I would rather roll over some amount of inequity than pull some money out of an appreciating asset or fund.

This one doesn't even require a calculator to think about it first, you just DO it.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2014, 06:35:24 PM »
When some 7 trillion barrels additional…compared to 1.2 trillion used…can be had at real prices (2008$) under $150/bbl, well, "unlimited money" isn't the issue at all.
The real issue is, how many people can afford to pay roughly 50% more for oil?  Last time prices got around $140 a barrel, we had a Great Recession.

Which was caused by idiot American home owners thinking that housing bubbles are a great way to borrow money they can't afford to repay. And the banks encouraging such ignorance for their own benefit.
Good thing we've learned our lesson and aren't giving out car loans and student loans to people who can't afford to repay them  ::)

Quote
The good news being, people have become quite accustomed to the $100 oil range…and are still flying here and there for mundane items, buying trucks and cars, hell even Doomers have RVs as spare vehicles to use as escape vehicles during the Zombiepocalypse that is taking it owns sweet time in arriving! Fuel prices can't even stop big rigs from doing their JIT delivery thing!!

That's why I really like the forest fire analogy.  You can have all the lightning strikes you want in the Sahara, you will never get a forest fire there.  Nor in the middle of the rainy season in the Pacific Northwest.  ALL the conditions have to be right.  Likewise, it takes time to build up a gargantuan load of junk debt.  And even then nothing is likely to happen while people are being rational.  Disruptions occur and people deal with them... until one day they stop being rational and start panicking.  Oil price spikes are good candidates, as are pandemics and severe grain shortages, to name three sparks.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline MKing

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2014, 06:59:13 PM »
Good thing we've learned our lesson and aren't giving out car loans and student loans to people who can't afford to repay them  ::)

We? You've got a different human species in your pocket? Some people never learn, and there is a sucker born every minute, and that certainly hasn't changed since the last orgy of the ignorant. There is hope they learn for the next time, certainly SOME of us have learned from our past experiences in recessions, investing, buying cars, whatever.

Quote from: jdwheeler42
Quote
The good news being, people have become quite accustomed to the $100 oil range…and are still flying here and there for mundane items, buying trucks and cars, hell even Doomers have RVs as spare vehicles to use as escape vehicles during the Zombiepocalypse that is taking it owns sweet time in arriving! Fuel prices can't even stop big rigs from doing their JIT delivery thing!!

That's why I really like the forest fire analogy.  You can have all the lightning strikes you want in the Sahara, you will never get a forest fire there.  Nor in the middle of the rainy season in the Pacific Northwest.  ALL the conditions have to be right.  Likewise, it takes time to build up a gargantuan load of junk debt.  And even then nothing is likely to happen while people are being rational.  Disruptions occur and people deal with them... until one day they stop being rational and start panicking.  Oil price spikes are good candidates, as are pandemics and severe grain shortages, to name three sparks.

Sparks are good. Forest fires are even better as learning experiences. Others tend to shy away from these types of learning experiences, but there is nothing quite like a full blown economic meltdown to teach people lessons they should have learned from their parents, grandparents, or less exciting life events...if only to be prepared.

Grandma always used to say, if you wanna learn how to wrestle a bear, sooner or later, your gonna have to wrestle a bear. A somewhat demented "that which doesn't kill you makes you stronger" angle, but who can argue with someone who survived the Depression in Appalachia? That old bird taught me how to kill chickens, advocated to my anti-gun mother that "that boy is old enough for his first raffle..." when I was about 9...bought me my first briefcase upon graduation. Only grandchild to complete college, she was always proud of that.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline azozeo

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2014, 08:03:01 PM »
The one problem with the new plastic cars that run on batteries is :
LITHIUM IS FRICKIN POISONOUS TO HUMANS
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline RE

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Re: US Energy Sources and Uses Show Limits of Renewable Energy Strategies
« Reply #29 on: September 03, 2014, 09:44:19 PM »

Grandma always used to say, if you wanna learn how to wrestle a bear, sooner or later, your gonna have to wrestle a bear. A somewhat demented "that which doesn't kill you makes you stronger" angle, but who can argue with someone who survived the Depression in Appalachia? That old bird taught me how to kill chickens, advocated to my anti-gun mother that "that boy is old enough for his first raffle..." when I was about 9...bought me my first briefcase upon graduation. Only grandchild to complete college, she was always proud of that.

How many times can you regurgitate your brag about being an Appalachian Horatio Alger? At least I keep my autobiographical articles down to 2 or 3 a year, you rehash Appalachia 2 or 3 times a week.   ::)

RE
« Last Edit: September 03, 2014, 11:29:48 PM by RE »
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