AuthorTopic: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....  (Read 73469 times)

Offline azozeo

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Hat Tip to AG
« Reply #840 on: August 11, 2017, 03:18:49 PM »
Good to have that link handy. Thanks.

The Schumann resonance link is on that corresponding thread as well.
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #841 on: August 11, 2017, 03:22:31 PM »
2017-08-09 - 1100 cattle suddenly die at farm in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil):
http://g1.globo.com/mato-grosso-do-sul/noticia/morte-de-11-mil-cabecas-de-gado-por-suspeita-de-botulismo-causa-prejuizo-de-aproximadamente-r-2-milhoes-em-ms.ghtml
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fg1.globo.com%2Fmato-grosso-do-sul%2Fnoticia%2Fmorte-de-11-mil-cabecas-de-gado-por-suspeita-de-botulismo-causa-prejuizo-de-aproximadamente-r-2-milhoes-em-ms.ghtml&edit-text=&act=url

Az,
I watched the video. I don't speak Portugese but it is enough like Spanish that I understood most of it. Those cattle are special cattle. Unlike most of the cattle in the USA, those cattle are heat tolerant Brahman cattle (the ones in India that those folks think are sacred). Most tropical areas imported them for beef and milk in the 20th century because they do well in the heat.

Butolism is suspected in these cows. But whatever it was that poisoned them, I'm sure there is a link to Catastrophic Climate Change. The fact is that increased heat helps the worse kind of microscopic life (and fungi) to make life more miserable for macroscopic life.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 03:35:40 PM by agelbert »
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #842 on: August 11, 2017, 03:30:07 PM »
Good to have that link handy. Thanks.

The Schumann resonance link is on that corresponding thread as well.


I didn't know what that was so I looked it up. Thanks for the  information. I suspect Global Warming will jack up the Schuman Resonance, which will cause more frequent fires.  :( I'll be watching that too.


For other readers not in the know:

Schumann Resonance

SNIPPET:

At any given moment about 2,000 thunderstorms roll over Earth, producing some 50 flashes of lightning every second. Each lightning burst creates electromagnetic waves that begin to circle around Earth captured between Earth's surface and a boundary about 60 miles up. Some of the waves - if they have just the right wavelength - combine, increasing in strength, to create a repeating atmospheric heartbeat known as Schumann resonance. This resonance provides a useful tool to analyze Earth's weather, its electric environment, and to even help determine what types of atoms and molecules exist in Earth's atmosphere.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/gallery/schumann-resonance.html


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Offline K-Dog

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #843 on: August 11, 2017, 11:55:13 PM »
2017-08-07 - High-rise five-star hotel damaged by fire in the Marina District in coastal Dubai (UAE):
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-dubai-fire-idUKKBN1AN0NM
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-08/07/c_136506202.htm
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-no-casualties-reported/448532.html
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/third-dubai-fire-in-days-forces-evacuation-of-hotel-near-marina-district-1734463
http://zeenews.india.com/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-marina-third-blaze-within-a-week-2030861.html
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/08/07/Fire-breaks-out-again-in-Dubai-Marina-third-blaze-in-a-week.html
http://gulfbusiness.com/fire-breaks-out-movenpick-jbr/

Quote: "A fire erupted at a Dubai five-star hotel in the Marina tourist hotspot on Monday, with no casualties or injuries reported. The fire in Movenpick Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) Hotel, which was quickly brought under control, was the third blaze in less than a week in Dubai, reports Xinhua news agency."

Quote: "On Sunday, another minor fire occurred on a balcony at the Tiger Tower, causing the building to be evacuated. No injuries were reported. It followed a massive blaze across the road at Torch Tower early on Friday morning – the second time the 86-floor building has caught fire in two years."

Note: So three high-rise fires in four days in Dubai, plus some vehicle fires too...


Great catch! 

What I find amazing about the Dubai fires is that, even though high ambient temperatures always aid in spontaneous combustion, the CO2 levels there are very high, which tends to inhibit combustion. This link is to a continuosly updated global graphic data set for temperatures, GHG levels, jet stream, ocean currents, wave heights, etc.

I just went over there right now. The CO2 level in Dubai is 407 PPM. Of course that is peanuts compared to the area in Canada I just checked out where there is a lot of fire (and tar sands piggery). THAT area has 446 PPM of CO2!  :o :P

I have a hard time believing that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 which are always well below a tenth of one percent (for now) can possible be a significant modulator of spontaneous combustion.   A tenth of one percent is 1000 ppm.  Temperature has a far more significant effect.  Things which are not really comparable can''t balance each other out.  Temperature impacts the rate of chemical reactions which are the very causes of spontaneous combustion.  CO2 will only displace a tiny amount of oxygen and trying to measure the difference CO2 does cause would be very difficult.

Science could prove me wrong but I doubt it.  Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 11:57:16 PM by K-Dog »

Offline agelbert

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2017-08-07 - High-rise five-star hotel damaged by fire in the Marina District in coastal Dubai (UAE):
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-dubai-fire-idUKKBN1AN0NM
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-08/07/c_136506202.htm
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-no-casualties-reported/448532.html


http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/third-dubai-fire-in-days-forces-evacuation-of-hotel-near-marina-district-1734463
http://zeenews.india.com/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-marina-third-blaze-within-a-week-2030861.html
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/08/07/Fire-breaks-out-again-in-Dubai-Marina-third-blaze-in-a-week.html
http://gulfbusiness.com/fire-breaks-out-movenpick-jbr/

Quote: "A fire erupted at a Dubai five-star hotel in the Marina tourist hotspot on Monday, with no casualties or injuries reported. The fire in Movenpick Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) Hotel, which was quickly brought under control, was the third blaze in less than a week in Dubai, reports Xinhua news agency."

Quote: "On Sunday, another minor fire occurred on a balcony at the Tiger Tower, causing the building to be evacuated. No injuries were reported. It followed a massive blaze across the road at Torch Tower early on Friday morning – the second time the 86-floor building has caught fire in two years."

Note: So three high-rise fires in four days in Dubai, plus some vehicle fires too...


Great catch! 

What I find amazing about the Dubai fires is that, even though high ambient temperatures always aid in spontaneous combustion, the CO2 levels there are very high, which tends to inhibit combustion. This link is to a continuosly updated global graphic data set for temperatures, GHG levels, jet stream, ocean currents, wave heights, etc.

I just went over there right now. The CO2 level in Dubai is 407 PPM. Of course that is peanuts compared to the area in Canada I just checked out where there is a lot of fire (and tar sands piggery). THAT area has 446 PPM of CO2!  :o :P

I have a hard time believing that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 which are always well below a tenth of one percent (for now) can possible be a significant modulator of spontaneous combustion.   A tenth of one percent is 1000 ppm.  Temperature has a far more significant effect.  Things which are not really comparable can''t balance each other out.  Temperature impacts the rate of chemical reactions which are the very causes of spontaneous combustion.  CO2 will only displace a tiny amount of oxygen and trying to measure the difference CO2 does cause would be very difficult.

Science could prove me wrong but I doubt it.  Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place.


K-Dog, WHY do you have such difficulties reading what is written (by me )?

Yes, of course the ambient temperature, AS I POINTED OUT, is the main issue in spontaneous combustion. But, lo and behold, CO2 molecules, even in teeny tiny amounts, TRAP HEAT, don't they, K-Dog? So, ANY added amount of CO2 contributes to INCREASE the ambient temperature somewhat. So your claim that the "relatively tiny" increase in CO2 concentration is "irrelevant" to spontaneous combustion, if that is what is indeed going on in Dubai, is scientifically inaccurate because any amount of heat increase is relevant to enabling spontaneous combustion. Please do not lecture me on the energy of activation needed to initiate an exothermic chemical reaction. Anyone with a science background (as well as anybody with common sense) knows that combustion is one of those chemcial reactions that just happens to occur much easier when it is hotter out there.

A tiny amount of CO2 PPM increase (as opposed to all the other atmospheric gases), as this graphic from a lecture by an IPCC scientist clearly states, causes a HUGE increase in atmospheric heating. If YOU do not think a 10 PPM CO2 increase is a large amount, then you are in error.


And I also POINTED OUT that the CO2 level in Dubai is PEANUTS compared with Canada where some fires and tar sands piggery is going on.

If you had been objective, you might have mentioned the one thing I missed (on any of those fires that started in daylight hours, of course). That is, that reflection from glass surfaces on skyscrapers might have aided in combustion on other buildings. I missed that one. So did you.

K-Dog SAID, "Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place."

It is clear that you are NOT in the know about how MUCH CO2 PPM (and CO PPM, by the way) concentrations vary from place to place.

After you go to the site at this link, you may admit at your leisure that SCIENCE just proved you wrong on that incorrect assumption (not just Agelbert  ;D ). No need to rush to admit your error, K-Dog. I understand that you have always been rather reticent to admit  I am right about anything.  ;)

But if you don't admit it within 24 hours, I will return to this thread with screen shots of CO, CO2, SO2, and maybe some particulate matter concentrations in different parts of the globe DIRECTLY CAUSED by the BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS, which are the irrefutable cause of Global Warming caused Catastrophic Climate change (for you to try to talk your way around).

Dinner is served, K-dog:

« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 10:59:08 AM by agelbert »
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Offline azozeo

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #845 on: August 12, 2017, 12:47:37 PM »
There could be methane releases as well as sulfur dioxide.
I'm limited in my chemistry knowledge, however those two gases are combustible.
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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #846 on: August 12, 2017, 12:58:45 PM »
2017-08-10 - Heatwave broils Iraq and Kuwait, birds dropping dead from the sky:
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=HT-20170812-59443-IRQ
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/index.php?pageid=event_update&edis_id=HT-20170812-59443-IRQ

Quote: "The Middle East has been hit with an 'ungodly' heatwave so extreme Iraq's government ordered all of its civil servants to go home on Thursday, when temperatures rose above 50C. Temperatures are expected to stay above 45C for the next week, with the UK Met office predicting temperatures as high as 49C this weekend. Meanwhile Kuwait will see highs of 47C and 44C in Riyadh. It comes after temperatures above 48C every day this month in the Iraqi capital."

Quote: "Birds in Kuwait have reportedly been dropping from the sky as temperatures soar to 50C across the Middle East."
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Offline K-Dog

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #847 on: August 12, 2017, 05:32:38 PM »
There could be methane releases as well as sulfur dioxide.
I'm limited in my chemistry knowledge, however those two gases are combustible.

Wind mixes it.  It will only vary if there is a feed.  Even if there were no wind diffusion would mix it but that would take a long time.  It is like mixing two fluids, the difference being gases mix themselves.  I always liked the kinetic theory of gases.  So pure simple and satisfying.

I don't have to take this abuse.  I graduated college physics.  Radiant energy from the sun to which the atmosphere is transparent hits the earth and is converted into heat.  Heat is then radiated back out into space but small concentrations of CO2 trap heat photons on the way as to get to outer space many miles of atmosphere must be transversed.  The probability is high that a photon will be trapped and released several times along the way despite a low concentration of atmospheric CO2 because of the large distance involved.  The situation will find and balance about a point where an increase in surface temperature steps up the rate of energy radiated away from the earth so that once again the amount of energy radiated out equals the amount coming in less what plants and solar panels store.  It is always a balanced equation.  With the new balancing point being a hotter earth.  A computer should be able to model the effect just fine which had climate change deniers hearts, souls, and most particularly, brains would be another blow against them.

A part per thousand of CO2 in the air is not going to do twiddly didily squat about spontaneous combustion.  Global warming is a macro phenomena because of the size of the petri dish we live in.  I make a legitimate contribution and the green eyed monster goes apeshit on me seeing a pattern of fires that is most likely random chance.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 05:41:57 PM by K-Dog »

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #848 on: August 12, 2017, 06:04:27 PM »
So multiple high rise skyscrapers in Dubai catching fire in a few weeks  isn't a big deal  ?

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Offline agelbert

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K-Dog, your 24 hours are up.
« Reply #849 on: August 13, 2017, 01:17:58 PM »
There could be methane releases as well as sulfur dioxide.
I'm limited in my chemistry knowledge, however those two gases are combustible.

Wind mixes it.  It will only vary if there is a feed.  Even if there were no wind diffusion would mix it but that would take a long time.  It is like mixing two fluids, the difference being gases mix themselves.  I always liked the kinetic theory of gases.  So pure simple and satisfying.

I don't have to take this abuse.  I graduated college physics.  Radiant energy from the sun to which the atmosphere is transparent hits the earth and is converted into heat.  Heat is then radiated back out into space but small concentrations of CO2 trap heat photons on the way as to get to outer space many miles of atmosphere must be transversed.  The probability is high that a photon will be trapped and released several times along the way despite a low concentration of atmospheric CO2 because of the large distance involved.  The situation will find and balance about a point where an increase in surface temperature steps up the rate of energy radiated away from the earth so that once again the amount of energy radiated out equals the amount coming in less what plants and solar panels store.  It is always a balanced equation.  With the new balancing point being a hotter earth.  A computer should be able to model the effect just fine which had climate change deniers hearts, souls, and most particularly, brains would be another blow against them.

A part per thousand of CO2 in the air is not going to do twiddly didily squat about spontaneous combustion.  Global warming is a macro phenomena because of the size of the petri dish we live in.  I make a legitimate contribution and the green eyed monster goes apeshit on me seeing a pattern of fires that is most likely random chance.

The above was an excellent example of a straw grasping, arrogant, appeal to authority fallacious debating technique that deliberately dances around K-Dog's woeful denial of the DATA I pointed out to him. Az did not, and I did not, claim that spontaneous combustion is the known cause of all those fires. But K-Dog continues to ridicule the mere POSSIBILITY of it having occurred, and adds a BROWN colored ( ;)) screaming stuffed toy to underline the fact that he will NOT accept ANYTHING comin' from folks like me. Besides the usual racist fun and games which have no place at all in this discussion, but racists like to use to undermine the argument of an opponent of color, the issue that K-Dog does NOT want to address, is the connection of Global Warming with the Burning of Fossil Fuels. So, he arm waves in as many slightly, but mostly insignificant, distracting relevant directions as possible. K-Dog is a Bad Doggie but he ain't stupid. 

The "pattern of fires" CO2 PPM HIGH Concentrations I pointed out to him is NOT "random chance". If he had bothered to look all over the globe, he would have learned that uttering that added bit of ignorance makes him look rather silly. K-Dog has much confusion in his head about the physics of gases. He probably learned about molecular diffusion, Brownian movement and such in college, which both tend to scatter molecules of gases and liquids until they are thoroughly and proportionately mixed. That leads K-Dog to the incorrect assumption that gases do not concentrate appreciably anywhere in the atmosphere.

You see, depending on their HEIGHT (i.e. atmospheric pressure variances and wind velocities affect both dispersion and concentration of gases) above the surface of the earth, gases VARY in the amount they diffuse equally in the atmosphere. But K-Dog, if he has been exposed to that info, passes it off as irrelevant to his ass-u-me-ption that gases MUST be equally distributed because, "that's what he learned in physics". If that's all K-Dog learned about how gases diffuse, K-Dog had a lousy teacher!



2017-08-07 - High-rise five-star hotel damaged by fire in the Marina District in coastal Dubai (UAE):
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-dubai-fire-idUKKBN1AN0NM
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-08/07/c_136506202.htm
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-no-casualties-reported/448532.html


http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/third-dubai-fire-in-days-forces-evacuation-of-hotel-near-marina-district-1734463
http://zeenews.india.com/world/fire-breaks-out-in-dubai-hotel-marina-third-blaze-within-a-week-2030861.html
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/08/07/Fire-breaks-out-again-in-Dubai-Marina-third-blaze-in-a-week.html
http://gulfbusiness.com/fire-breaks-out-movenpick-jbr/

Quote: "A fire erupted at a Dubai five-star hotel in the Marina tourist hotspot on Monday, with no casualties or injuries reported. The fire in Movenpick Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) Hotel, which was quickly brought under control, was the third blaze in less than a week in Dubai, reports Xinhua news agency."

Quote: "On Sunday, another minor fire occurred on a balcony at the Tiger Tower, causing the building to be evacuated. No injuries were reported. It followed a massive blaze across the road at Torch Tower early on Friday morning – the second time the 86-floor building has caught fire in two years."

Note: So three high-rise fires in four days in Dubai, plus some vehicle fires too...


Great catch! 

What I find amazing about the Dubai fires is that, even though high ambient temperatures always aid in spontaneous combustion, the CO2 levels there are very high, which tends to inhibit combustion. This link is to a continuosly updated global graphic data set for temperatures, GHG levels, jet stream, ocean currents, wave heights, etc.

I just went over there right now. The CO2 level in Dubai is 407 PPM. Of course that is peanuts compared to the area in Canada I just checked out where there is a lot of fire (and tar sands piggery). THAT area has 446 PPM of CO2!  :o :P

I have a hard time believing that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 which are always well below a tenth of one percent (for now) can possible be a significant modulator of spontaneous combustion.   A tenth of one percent is 1000 ppm.  Temperature has a far more significant effect.  Things which are not really comparable can''t balance each other out.  Temperature impacts the rate of chemical reactions which are the very causes of spontaneous combustion.  CO2 will only displace a tiny amount of oxygen and trying to measure the difference CO2 does cause would be very difficult.

Science could prove me wrong but I doubt it.  Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place.


K-Dog, WHY do you have such difficulties reading what is written (by me )?

Yes, of course the ambient temperature, AS I POINTED OUT, is the main issue in spontaneous combustion. But, lo and behold, CO2 molecules, even in teeny tiny amounts, TRAP HEAT, don't they, K-Dog? So, ANY added amount of CO2 contributes to INCREASE the ambient temperature somewhat. So your claim that the "relatively tiny" increase in CO2 concentration is "irrelevant" to spontaneous combustion, if that is what is indeed going on in Dubai, is scientifically inaccurate because any amount of heat increase is relevant to enabling spontaneous combustion. Please do not lecture me on the energy of activation needed to initiate an exothermic chemical reaction. Anyone with a science background (as well as anybody with common sense) knows that combustion is one of those chemcial reactions that just happens to occur much easier when it is hotter out there.

A tiny amount of CO2 PPM increase (as opposed to all the other atmospheric gases), as this graphic from a lecture by an IPCC scientist clearly states, causes a HUGE increase in atmospheric heating. If YOU do not think a 10 PPM CO2 increase is a large amount, then you are in error.


And I also POINTED OUT that the CO2 level in Dubai is PEANUTS compared with Canada where some fires and tar sands piggery is going on.

If you had been objective, you might have mentioned the one thing I missed (on any of those fires that started in daylight hours, of course). That is, that reflection from glass surfaces on skyscrapers might have aided in combustion on other buildings. I missed that one. So did you.

K-Dog SAID, "Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place."

It is clear that you are NOT in the know about how MUCH CO2 PPM (and CO PPM, by the way) concentrations vary from place to place.

After you go to the site at this link, you may admit at your leisure that SCIENCE just proved you wrong on that incorrect assumption (not just Agelbert  ;D ). No need to rush to admit your error, K-Dog. I understand that you have always been rather reticent to admit  I am right about anything.  ;)

But if you don't admit it within 24 hours, I will return to this thread with screen shots of CO, CO2, SO2, and maybe some particulate matter concentrations in different parts of the globe DIRECTLY CAUSED by the BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS, which are the irrefutable cause of Global Warming caused Catastrophic Climate change (for you to try to talk your way around).

Dinner is served, K-dog:




K-Dog, your 24 hours are up.


As predicted, Mr. ARROGANCE INCORPORATED, K-Dog, refuses to admit that he is WRONG. WRONG and, in case I forgot to mention it, WRONG.   

Quote
K-Dog SAID, "Besides which the overall concentration of CO2 can't possibly vary much from place to place."  

The following screen shot is from  this link. Those readers who, unlike the bad Doggie K-Dog, respect objective scientific data, instead of splitting irrelevant hairs about "random readings" or "faulty climate models" or using pejoritive (see: diddly squat - darn! that sounds just like MKing!), may wish to peruse our sad climate situation. Please pass it on, but not to closet defenders of the fossil fuel polluting status quo like K-Dog.     



Saturday, 12 August 2017

Inhuman temperatures birds dropping from the sky as the mercury in Kuwait and Iraq soar above 50 deg C +122 deg F

Birds in Kuwait have reportedly been dropping from the sky as temperatures soar to 50C across the Middle East.

The temperature in Kuwait has been consistently above 45C but the added humidity in the region is making it seem even hotter, creating extremely difficult living conditions for both humans and wildlife.

The Middle East has been hit with an 'ungodly' heatwave so extreme Iraq's government ordered all of its civil servants to go home on Thursday, when temperatures rose above 50C.

Temperatures are expected to stay above 45C for the next week, with the UK Met office predicting temperatures as high as 50C this weekend.

Meanwhile Kuwait will see highs of 47C and 44C in Riyadh.

It comes after temperatures above 48C every day this month in the Iraqi capital. Iraq's underfunded power network is struggling to cope with the increased demand from air conditioning and water coolers.

"It's really hard because of the lack of electricity, at home electricity is not good. We use 60 per cent of electricity from generators," said Baghdad resident Murtada Faisal. Mr Faisal said public showers offered by the Government as a means to battle the heat were "like a bandage".

"What we need is a long term solution like trees and water tunnels," he said. Mr Faisal said green spaces had been lost to new housing developments in and around Baghdad and there was not enough water to sustain the trees that the Government had planted.

The heatwave is also taking its toll on Iraq's military, who often spend long periods standing outside. Mr Faisal said he noticed increased friction between soldiers and civilians in the extreme weather. "It's really bad, it makes them angry.

When I go outside in Summer, I see more problems between people at the border," he said.

Another Baghdad resident, Mohanad, described the heat as "ungodly".
"The generator in my neighbourhood that provides electricity for about 300 houses has caught fire from the heat.

All it generates is smoke," he told the Guardian. "We don't know what to do. Men can go to the pool here but what do we do with our women, elderly and our babies?
Even the ACs in the car aren't working properly.
It's over 53 degrees today."

"It's disgusting. The government cannot do anything to help us even if they tried; the electricity generators were built in the 1960s and haven't been changed or modified since."

The heatwave in the Middle East comes after a heatwave dubbed 'Lucifer' fanned forest fires in Europe this week.

Both the Middle East and Europe have experienced extreme heatwaves this summer, which scientists warn is the result of global warming. In Iraq, temperatures in Baghdad have reached 50C, prompting the government to declare a mandatory holiday to allow state workers to stay at home.

Europe is battling a heatwave dubbed "Lucifer" which has seen temperatures climb above 40C across the continent.

The sweltering weather in Italy has caused wildfires and at least two people have died from the extreme heat in Romania and Poland. Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia have been the worst hit, with people being warned to stay indoors, avoid long journeys and drink plenty of fluids.

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2017/08/inhuman-temperatures-birds-dropping.html

« Last Edit: August 13, 2017, 01:20:22 PM by agelbert »
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Offline K-Dog

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24 hours my Ass Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #850 on: August 13, 2017, 03:22:01 PM »
24 hours!

You are not the boss of me and I already demonstrated how global warming works and why a small change in CO2 concentration makes significant changes in surface temperature.  I have no time for your junk science.  I am doing my own things today.

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Re: Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #851 on: August 13, 2017, 03:39:14 PM »
So multiple high rise skyscrapers in Dubai catching fire in a few weeks  isn't a big deal  ?

Actually it is not.  It is coincidence most likely.  Humans are built to find patterns and the brain processes more than a million 'events' in a month.  The statistical chance of six fires in Dubai over this time period is not significant.  Statistical analysis could determine the truth of what I allege but it looks like the Texas sharpshooter fallacy to me.  We all pay attention to what is significant and ignore the rest.

Quote
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Misconception: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect.

The Truth: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause.



Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were both presidents of the United States, elected 100 years apart. Both were shot and killed by assassins who were known by three names with 15 letters, John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, and neither killer would make it to trial.

Spooky, huh? It gets better.

Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy, and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln.

They were both killed on a Friday while sitting next to their wives, Lincoln in the Ford Theater, Kennedy in a Lincoln made by Ford.

Both men were succeeded by a man named Johnson – Andrew for Lincoln and Lyndon for Kennedy. Andrew was born in 1808. Lyndon in 1908.

What are the odds?

In 1898, Morgan Robertson wrote a novel titled “Futility.”

Written 14 years before the Titanic sank, 11 years before construction on the vessel even began, the similarities between the book and the real event are eerie.

The novel describes a giant boat called the Titan which everyone considers unsinkable. It is the largest ever created, and inside it seems like a luxury hotel – just like the as yet unbuilt Titanic.

Titan had only 20 lifeboats, half than it needed should the great ship sink. The Titanic had 24, also half than it needed.

In the book, the Titan hits an iceberg in April 400 miles from Newfoundland. The Titanic, years later, would do the same in the same month in the same place.

The Titan sinks, and more than half of the passengers die, just as with the Titanic. The number of people on board who die in the book and the number in the future accident are nearly identical.

The similarities don’t stop there. The fictional Titan and the real Titanic both had three propellers and two masts. Both had a capacity of 3,000 people. Both hit the iceberg close to midnight.

Did Robertson have a premonition? I mean, what are the odds?

In the 1500s, Nostradamus wrote:

    Bêtes farouches de faim fleuves tranner
    Plus part du champ encore Hister sera,
    En caige de fer le grand sera treisner,
    Quand rien enfant de Germain observa.

This is often translated to:

    Beasts wild with hunger will cross the rivers,
    The greater part of the battle will be against Hister.
    He will cause great men to be dragged in a cage of iron,
    When the son of Germany obeys no law.

That’s rather creepy, considering this seems to describe a guy with a tiny mustache born about 400 years later. Here is another prophecy:

    Out of the deepest part of the west of Europe,
    From poor people a young child shall be born,
    Who with his tongue shall seduce many people,
    His fame shall increase in the Eastern Kingdom.

Wow. Hister certainly sounds like Hitler, and that second quatrain seems to drive it home. Actually, Many of Nostradamus’ predictions are about a guy from Germania who wages a great war and dies mysteriously.

What are the odds?

If any of this seems too amazing to be coincidence, too odd to be random, too similar to be chance, you are not so smart.

You see, in all three examples the barn was already peppered with holes. You just drew bullseyes around the spots where the holes clustered together.

Allow me to explain.

Say you go on a date, and the other person reveals they drive the same kind of car you do. It’s a different color, but the same model.

Well, that’s sort of neat, but nothing amazing.

Let’s say later on you learn their mom’s name is the same as your mom’s, and your mothers have the same birthday.

Hold on a second. That’s pretty cool. Maybe the hand of fate is pushing you toward the other person. Later still, you find out you both own the box set of Monty Python’s Flying Circus, and you both grew up loving Rescue Rangers. You both love pizza, but hate rutabagas.

This is meant to be, you think. You are made for each other.

But, take a step back. Now, take another.

How many people in the world own that model of car? You are both about the same age, so your mothers are too, and their names were probably common in their time. Since you have similar backgrounds and grew up in the same decade, you probably share the same childhood TV shows. Everyone loves Monty Python. Everyone loves pizza. Many people hate rutabagas.

Looking at the factors from a distance, you can accept the reality of random chance.

When you desire meaning, when you want things to line up, you forget about stochasticity. You are lulled by the signal. You forget about noise. With meaning, you overlook randomness, but meaning is a human construction.

You have just committed the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

The fallacy gets its name from imagining a cowboy shooting at a barn. Over time, the side of the barn becomes riddled with holes. In some places there are lots of them, in others there are few. If the cowboy later paints a bullseye over a spot where his bullet holes clustered together it looks like he is pretty good with a gun.

By painting a bullseye over a bullet hole the cowboy places artificial order over natural random chance.

If you have a human brain, you do this all of the time. Picking out clusters of coincidence is a predictable malfunction of normal human logic.

When you are dazzled by the idea of Nostradamus predicting Hitler, you ignore how he wrote almost 1,000 ambiguous predictions, and most of them make no sense at all. He seems even less interesting when you find out Hister is the Latin name for the Danube River.

When you marvel at the similarities between the Titan and the Titanic, you disregard that in the novel only 13 people survived, and the ship sank right away, and the Titan had made many voyages, and it had sails. In the novel, one of the survivors fought a polar bear before being rescued.

When you are befuddled by the Lincoln and Kennedy connections, you neglect to notice Kennedy was Catholic and Lincoln was born Baptist. Kennedy was killed with a rifle, Lincoln with a pistol. Kennedy was shot in Texas, Lincoln in Washington D.C. Kennedy had lustrous auburn hair, while Lincoln wore a haberdasher’s wet dream.

With all three examples there are thousands of differences, all of which you ignored, but when you draw the bullseye around the clusters, the similarities – whoa.

If hindsight bias and confirmation bias had a baby, it would be the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

When reality shows are filmed, the producers have hundreds of hours of footage. When they condense that footage into an hour, they paint a bullseye around a cluster of holes. They find a narrative in all the mundane moments, extracting the good bits and tossing aside the rest. This means they can create any orderly story they wish from their reserves of chaos.

Was that one girl really a horrific bitch? Was that guy with the tattoos really that dumb? Unless you can pull back and see the entire barn, you’ll never know.

The reach of the fallacy is far greater than reality shows, presidential trivia and spooky coincidences. When you use the sharpshooter fallacy to determine cause from effect, it can harm people.

One of the reasons scientists form a hypothesis and then try to disprove it with new research is to avoid the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Epidemiologists are especially wary of it as they study the factors which lead to the spread of disease.

If you look at a map of the United States with dots assigned to where cancer rates are highest, you will notice areas of clumping. It looks like you have a pretty good indication of where the groundwater must be poisoned, or high-voltage power lines are bombarding people with damaging energy fields, or where cell phone towers are frying people’s organs, or where nuclear bombs must have been tested.

A map like that is a lot like the side of the sharpshooter’s barn, and presuming there must be a cause for cancer clusters is the same as drawing bullseyes around them.

More often than not, cancer clusters have no scary environmental cause.

    “A community that is afflicted with an unusual number of cancers quite naturally looks for a cause in the environment – in the ground, the water, the air. And the correlations are sometimes found: the cluster may arise after, say, contamination of the water supply by a possible carcinogen. The problem is that when scientists have tried to confirm such causes, they haven’t been able to. Raymond Richard Neutra, California’s chief environmental health investigator and an expert on cancer clusters, points out that among hundreds of exhaustive, published investigations of residential clusters in the United States, not one has convincingly identified an underlying environmental cause. Abroad, in only a handful of cases has a neighborhood cancer cluster been shown to arise from an environmental cause. And only one of these cases ended with the discovery of an unrecognized carcinogen.”

    The Cancer Cluster Myth, The New Yorker, Feb. 1999

There are many agents at work. People who are related tend to live near each other. Old people tend to retire in the same areas. Eating, smoking and exercise habits tend to be similar region to region. And, after all, one in three people will develop cancer in their lifetime.

To accept something like residential cancer clusters are often just coincidence is deeply unsatisfying. The powerlessness, the feeling you are defenseless to the whims of chance, can be assuaged by singling out an antagonist. Sometimes you need a bad guy, and The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is one way you can create one.

According to the Centers for Disease Control the number of autism cases among 8-year-olds increased 57 percent from 2002 to the 2006. Looking back over the last 20 years, the rates of autism have gone up 200 percent. Today, 1 in 70 male children has some form of autism spectrum disorder.

When those numbers were released, it seemed absolutely nuts. Parents around the world panicked. Something must be causing autism numbers to rise, right?

Early on, a bullseye was painted around vaccines because symptoms seemed to show up about the same time as kids were getting vaccinated. Once they had a target, a cluster, they failed to see all the other correlations. After years of research and millions of dollars, vaccines have been ruled out, but some parents and celebrities refuse to accept the findings. Singling out vaccines while ignoring the millions of other factors is the same as noting the Titan hit an iceberg but omitting it had sails.

Lucky streaks at the casino, hot hands in basketball, a tornado sparing a church – these are all examples of humans finding meaning after the fact, after the odds are tallied and the numbers have moved on. You are ignoring the times you lost, the times the ball missed the basket and all the homes the tornado blindly devoured.

In World War II, Londoners took notice when bombing raids consistently missed certain neighborhoods. People began to believe German spies lived in the spared buildings. They didn’t. Analysis afterward by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed the bombing strike patterns were random.

Anywhere people are searching for meaning, you will see the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. For many, the world loses luster when you accept the idea random mutations can lead to eyeballs or random burn patterns on toast can look like a person’s face.

If you were to shuffle a deck and draw out 10 cards, the chances of the sequence you drew coming up are in the trillions, no matter what they are. If you drew out an ordered suit, it would be astonishing, but the chances are the same as any other set of 10 cards. The meaning is a human construct.

Look outside. See that tree? The chances of it growing there on that spot, on this planet, circling this star in this galaxy among the billions of galaxies in the known universe are so incredibly small it seems to have meaning, but that meaning is only a figment of your imagination. You are drawing a bullseye around a cluster on a vast barn.

It  is no less astronomical the odds of it being there than the patch of dirt beside it. The same is true if you looked out onto a desert and found a lizard, or into the sky and found a cloud, or into space and saw nothing but hydrogen atoms floating alone. There is a 100 percent chance something will be there, be anywhere, when you look, but only the need for meaning changes how you feel about what you see.

    For as long as there been humans we have searched for our place in the cosmos. Where are we? Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a hum-drum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people. This perspective is a courageous continuation of our penchant for constructing and testing mental models of the skies; the Sun as a red-hot stone, the stars as a celestial flame, the Galaxy as the backbone of night.

    – Carl Sagan

To admit the messy slog of chaos, disorder and random chance rules your life, rules the universe itself, is a painful conceit. You commit the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy when you need a pattern to provide meaning, to console you, to lay blame.

You mow your lawn, arrange your silverware, comb your hair. Whenever possible, you oppose the forces of entropy and thwart their relentless derangement.

Your drive to do this is primal. You need order. Order makes it easier to be a person, to navigate this sloppy world.

Pattern recognition leads to food, protects you from harm. You are born looking for clusters where chance events have built up like sand into dunes. You are able to read these words because your ancestors recognized patterns and changed their behavior to better acquire food and avoiding becoming it.

Carl Sagan said in the vastness of space and the immensity of time it was a joy to share a planet and epoch with his wife. Even though he knew fate didn’t put them together, it didn’t take away the wonder he felt when he was with her.

You see patterns everywhere, but some of them are formed by chance and mean nothing. Against the noisy background of probability things are bound to line up from time to time for no reason at all. It’s just how the math works out. Recognizing this is an important part of ignoring coincidences when they don’t matter and realizing what has real meaning for you on this planet, in this epoch.


Offline azozeo

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Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Gas, Gas....
« Reply #852 on: August 14, 2017, 12:23:50 PM »
Thanks K-Dog,

I'd seen that Kennedy/Lincoln parallel years ago. Coincidence, perhaps.

One note of interest is that those high rise towers in Dubai are climate controlled sealed systems.
Granted, people like to party in hotels. Hookers n' blo, right ?
You get to smokin' and drinkin' & shit starts to fall apart. Coincidence, perhaps.

What is your take on spontaneous human combustion.
 
If you're 1 step ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a genius.

If you're 2 steps ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a lunatic.

Offline azozeo

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Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Bring It K-Dog !
« Reply #853 on: August 14, 2017, 01:11:41 PM »
2017-08-12 - 220 wildfires erupt in one day in Portugal:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/portugal-fights-record-number-wildfires-day-2017-49174546

Quote: "Portugal is fighting to put out a spate of wildfires after the southern European country hit a year high of outbreaks for a single day on Friday, authorities say. Portugal's Civil Protection Agency, which coordinates its firefighting efforts, said Saturday that it recorded a record for this year of 220 separate wildfires on Friday."
If you're 1 step ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a genius.

If you're 2 steps ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a lunatic.

Offline azozeo

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Jumpin' Jack Flash - It's a Gas, Pyrosomes Gone WILD !
« Reply #854 on: August 14, 2017, 01:14:27 PM »
2017-08-12 - Huge numbers of tropical pyrosomes invading beaches from California to Alaska:
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Gelatinous-Sea-Creatures-Land-on-California-Coast--430965483.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-pyrosomes-idUSKBN19I145

Quote: "The Guardian reported that NOAA research biologist Rick Brodeur, along with marine biologist expert Dr. Lisa-ann Gershwin, suspect increasing water temperatures may be related."

Quote: "They are more commonly found in tropical waters but have been spotted since 2015 in increasing numbers along the Northern California Current, which spans Northern California to Oregon and Washington, according to  the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

Quote: "Some pyrosomes — which can glow in the dark — have even been spotted as north as Alaska, according to Reuters."
If you're 1 step ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a genius.

If you're 2 steps ahead of the crowd, you're considered
a lunatic.

 

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