AuthorTopic: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014  (Read 3938 times)

Offline RE

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Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« on: November 09, 2014, 02:52:31 PM »
NEW CAFE!

Guests Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum & Gail Tverberg plus me & Monsta

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/BnByO2E1Y4w?feature=player_detailpage" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/BnByO2E1Y4w?feature=player_detailpage</a>

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Offline JoeP

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2014, 07:44:32 PM »
NEW CAFE!

Guests Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum & Gail Tverberg plus me & Monsta


Well done. Very Nice.  Are you and Steve predicting a collapse in the financial system within the next year? Sure sounds like it.  Almost seems like you're guaranteeing it. Reminds me of Ilargi and his visions of a completely failed Europe that did not pan out.

 
just my straight shooting honest opinion

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2014, 07:54:15 PM »
NEW CAFE!

Guests Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum & Gail Tverberg plus me & Monsta


Well done. Very Nice.  Are you and Steve predicting a collapse in the financial system within the next year? Sure sounds like it.  Almost seems like you're guaranteeing it. Reminds me of Ilargi and his visions of a completely failed Europe that did not pan out.

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.

Nobody can predict when the financial system will finally crack.  However, it's not looking too good for the Yen, Euro and Rouble at the moment.

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Offline JoeP

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2014, 08:04:15 PM »

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.


Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.
 
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Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2014, 08:19:15 PM »

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.


Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.

80% of the electorate in Catalonia would not agree with you.

Catalan voters favor independence from Spain, early results show

Catalonia independence vote
ElectionsNelson Mandela
In unofficial secession vote, more than 80% favor Catalan independence, initial results show
Spanish official: Catalonia's nonbinding secession vote was 'a useless, sterile simulation'

More than 80% of voters participating in Catalonia's weekend independence poll endorsed breaking away from Spain, initial results showed early Monday.

The northeastern region held an unofficial, nonbinding secession vote Sunday, in violation of Spanish law. The poll was administered by 40,000 volunteers rather than civil servants.

Catalonia independence vote

Catalan officials said about 2.25 million people cast ballots — roughly half of eligible voters in the region of 7.5 million. It was one of the biggest endorsements of Catalan independence; in regional elections in 2012, 1.7 million Catalans voted for secessionist parties.

“In my opinion the turnout has been excellent, outstanding, even impressive,” Catalan President Artur Mas told reporters. “Like Quebec, like Scotland, Catalonia also wants to decide its political future — and we have the same right to decide it.”

With most ballots counted, just under 81% of voters answered “yes, yes” on Sunday's two-part ballot, Catalan Vice President Joana Ortega announced.

The questions: “Do you want Catalonia to be a state? If so, do you want that state to be independent?”

Just 4.5% of voters said no to both questions.

Despite a drizzle, long lines of voters snaked through Barcelona’s Gothic Quarter, and turned out at more than 1,300 polling stations regionwide. The Catalan capital had been transformed into a giant get-out-the-vote rally, with outdoor concerts and speeches, and whole families draped in Catalan flags. On a wide central thoroughfare closed to traffic, monitors played video of the Berlin Wall coming down 25 years ago and Nelson Mandela campaigning against apartheid in South Africa, mixed in with images from Catalonia's own history.

In my opinion the turnout has been excellent, outstanding, even impressive. - Catalan President Artur Mas

Organizers hoped a robust turnout might force Madrid to negotiate more autonomy for Catalonia. But Spanish Justice Minister Rafael Catala called Sunday's vote “a useless, sterile simulation.”

“The [Spanish] government believes we have seen a day of political propaganda organized by pro-independence forces, lacking any kind of democratic validity,” Catala said in a televised statement.

cComments
  • Here is a well known 19th century painting that has been used by the Catalan city of Reus as a poster. Reus is celebrating the 200th anniversary of their native son General Prim. Unable to state the obvious, he was a victorious Spanish general in the African campaign in the painting,...
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Catalans have long sought autonomy from the Spanish central government in Madrid, but this was the first time they voted explicitly on it. Many were on the losing side of Spain's 1936-39 Civil War, and suffered repression under the nearly four decades of military rule that followed, during which their language and local holidays were banned. More recently, in Spain's economic crisis, many Catalans believed their wealthy region was unfairly subsidizing poorer parts of the country.

In the short term, it was unlikely Spain's Constitution would be amended to allow for a U.S.-style federal system in which Madrid might grant statehood to Catalonia, said Sofia Perez, a Spanish political scientist at Boston University.

Catalonia independence vote

“More likely, I think, is a return to negotiations over the way in which Catalonia is financed, and some sort of compromise that would allow Catalonia to retain a larger share of the income taxes that are raised in Catalonia,” Perez said.

A team of international observers led by a British member of the European Parliament, Ian Duncan, visited several polling stations in Catalonia on Sunday and issued a report saying the process “took place in a calm and open manner where no one was coerced or intimidated.”

Because voters knew ahead of time that the poll's results would be nonbinding and unrecognized, experts said results were likely to be skewed toward independence, drawing more participation by those in favor of change, than the status quo.

“The problem is that people who don't want this are afraid to speak out,” said Susana Beltran, a member of Catalan Civil Society, a local group opposed to Sunday's vote. “They don't want problems with their friends, with their jobs, in life in general.”

Beltran did not vote and encouraged others to stay home. Among those who did vote was Clara Sen, 41, who took her two young daughters with her to a polling station in Barcelona.

“We try to explain that this is a peaceful process, and that it's important to say what you think,” she said.

Frayer is a special correspondent.

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Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2014, 12:42:40 AM »

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.


Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.

Ambrose thinks otherwise also.

RE

Mario Draghi's efforts to save EMU have hit the Berlin Wall

If the ECB tries to press ahead with QE, Germany's central bank chief will resign. If it does not do so, the eurozone will remain stuck in a lowflation trap and Mario Draghi will resign

President of European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaks during a press conference following the meeting of the governing council in Frankfurt, Germany, Thursday, Feb. 6, 2014
Image 1 of 3
Mario Draghi seems to have hit the limits of European power politics  Photo: AP
 
 

Mario Draghi has finally overplayed his hand. He tried to bounce the European Central Bank into €1 trillion of stimulus without the acquiescence of Europe's creditor bloc or the political assent of Germany.

The counter-attack is in full swing. The Frankfurter Allgemeine talks of a "palace coup", the German boulevard press of a "Putsch". I write before knowing the outcome of the ECB's pre-meeting dinner on Wednesday night, but a blizzard of leaks points to an ugly showdown between Mr Draghi and Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann.

They are at daggers drawn. Mr Draghi is accused of withholding key documents from the ECB's two German members, lest they use them in their guerrilla campaign to head off quantitative easing. This includes Sabine Lautenschlager, Germany's enforcer on the six-man executive board, and an open foe of QE.

The chemistry is unrecognisable from July 2012, when Mr Draghi was working hand-in-glove with Ms Lautenschlager's predecessor, Jorg Asmussen, an Italian speaker and Left-leaning Social Democrat. Together they cooked up the "do-whatever-it-takes" rescue plan for Italy and Spain (OMT). That is why it worked.

We now learn from a Reuters report that Mr Draghi defied an explicit order from the governing council when he seemingly promised to boost the ECB's balance sheet by €1 trillion. He also jumped the gun with a speech in Jackson Hole, giving the very strong impression that the ECB was alarmed by the collapse of the so-called five-year/five-year swap rate and would therefore respond with overpowering force. He had no clearance for this.

The governors of all northern and central EMU states - except Finland and Belgium - lean towards the Bundesbank view, foolishly in my view but that is irrelevant. The North-South split is out in the open, and it reflects the raw conflict of interest between the two halves.

The North is competitive. The South is 20pc overvalued, caught in a debt-deflation vice. Data from the IMF show that Germany’s net foreign credit position (NIIP) has risen from 34pc to 48pc of GDP since 2009, Holland's from 17pc to 46pc. The net debtors are sinking into deeper trouble, France from -9pc to -17pc, Italy from -27pc to -30pc and Spain from -94pc to -98pc. Claims that Spain is safely out of the woods ignore this festering problem.

David Marsh, author of a book on the Bundesbank and now chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, says the Bundesbank has been quietly seeking legal advice on whether it can block full-scale QE. It is looking at Articles 10.3 and 32 of the ECB statutes, arguably relevant given the scale of liabilities.

The let-out clauses would make QE the sole decision of the 18 national governors - shutting out Mr Draghi - based on the shareholder weightings. Germany would have 26pc of the votes, easily enough to mount a one-third blocking minority. Mr Draghi would not even have a say.

Mr Marsh said this has echoes of the "Emminger Letter" invoked in September 1992 to justify the Bundesbank's refusal to uphold its obligation to defend the Italian lira in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. The lira crashed. The Italians were stunned. One of them was the director of the Italian Treasury, a young Mario Draghi.

Lena Komileva, from G+ Economics, says the ECB is heading for a crisis of legitimacy whatever happens. If the bank tries to press ahead with a QE-blitz, Mr Weidmann will resign. If it does not do so, the eurozone will remain stuck in a lowflation trap and the ECB will go the way of the Bank of Japan in the late 1990s, in which case Mr Draghi will resign.

Mr Draghi's balance sheet pledge was muddled and oversold from the start. Much of it was predicated on banks taking out super-cheap loans (TLTROs) from the ECB, but they have so far spurned it. You cannot make a horse drink. These loans are not the same as QE money creation in any case. They are an exchange for collateral.

The asset purchases are what matter and the package announced so far is modest, bordering on trivial. It is unlikely to exceed €10bn a month as currently designed. The "buyable" market for covered bonds and asset-backed securities is too small to move the macro-economic dial. If the ECB wanted to match the Bank of Japan in its latest effort to drive down the yen and export deflation, it would have to launch €130bn of asset purchases every month (1.4pc of GDP).

Hawks claim that QE would make no difference because interest rates are already near zero, and the German 10-year Bund is already the lowest in history. This is eyewash. Central banks can print money to buy gold, land, oil for strategic reserves (why not?) or Charollais cattle. Or they can print to build roads or windmills. They can hand the money out as cash envelopes. If they did this, even the dimmest wits would see that QE is a monetary device and can always defeat deflation as a mathematical principle. It does not have to work through interest rates, nor should it.

The ECB's North-South clash mirrors the political breakdown of monetary union after six years of depression and mass unemployment. France's Front National now has twice as many Euro-MPs as the ruling Socialists. Euro defenders invariably insist that the triumph of Marine Le Pen - currently leading presidential polls at 30pc - has nothing to do with her pledge to restore the franc and take back French economic sovereignty.

Whether or not this is true - and that smacks of presumption - she is snatching enough votes from the Socialists to threaten their survival as a political movement. If they let perma-slump drift on until 2017, they will meet the fate of Greece's PASOK, and deserve it.

Italy is also edging closer to an inflexion point. The Five Star movement of Beppe Grillo - which won a quarter of the vote in 2013 - has grasped the elemental point that zero inflation and falling nominal GDP is pushing Italy into a debt-compound trap. For a long time Mr Grillo wrestled with the EMU issue. There is no longer any doubt. "We must leave the euro as soon as possible,” he says.

Spain's insurgent Podemos party has come from nowhere to top the polls at 28pc. It is not anti-euro. Its wrath is directed against a corrupt "Casta". Yet the party's reflation drive and furious critique of Spain's "internal devaluation" is entirely at odds with EMU imperatives, as is its €145bn plan for a universal basic income, which would lift Spain's fiscal deficit to 20pc of GDP. Podemos reminds one of France's Front Populaire in 1936. Leon Blum did not perhaps intend to leave the Gold Standard, but he knew his policies would bring it about in short order.

Mr Draghi is of course right to force the issue. The ECB is missing its 2pc inflation target by a mile, with crippling effects on the crisis states. This itself is a violation of the ECB's legal mandate. The refusal of the German-led hawks to do anything serious about this is indefensible, and remarkably stupid unless their intention is to break up EMU, a possibility one can no longer exclude.

The European Commission's Autumn forecast this week is a cri de coeur. It warns of a "snowball effect" as deflationary forces causes debt trajectories to accelerate upwards by mechanical effect.

Brussels admits that something has gone horribly wrong, obliquely blaming stagnation on the "policy response to the crisis". It halved the growth estimate for France to 0.7pc next year, and for Italy to 0.6pc, a ritual with each report.

It says the eurozone faces a "home-grown" malaise, left behind as the US and Britain pull away. "It is becoming harder to see the dent in recovery as the result of temporary factors only. Trend growth has fallen even lower due to low investment and higher structural unemployment," it said. Now they tell us.

The collapse of investment is not some form of witchcraft. It is entirely due to the folly of deep cuts in public investment - pushed by the Commission itself - at a time of private sector deleveraging, all made much worse by monetary paralysis. Italy's rate of investment fell by 7.4pc in 2012 and 5.4pc in 2013. Even Germany's fell 0.7pc in each year.

Tucked away in the report is a nugget that Britain alone accounted for almost all the EU's growth in 2013, half in 2014, and will still be the biggest contributor by far in 2015. This implies that the UK's net payments to the EU budget - already up fourfold since 2008 - will become ever more skewed. Or put another way, the more EMU makes a mess of its affairs, the more Britain must pay to prop it up.

Europe's leaders and officials have run monetary union into the ground. Mr Draghi has bravely tried to bring them to their senses and contain the damage. He seems to have hit the limits of European power politics.

There is another job waiting for him in Rome as Italian president, should he wish to take it. The offer must be tempting, if only for sweet revenge.

His departure would shatter market confidence in the euro overnight. He could then lead his country to recovery, with a correctly-valued lira, and inflict a massive trade shock on his tormentors in the North for good measure.

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Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2014, 01:01:27 AM »

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.


Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.

Paul Mason has some issues here with the Euro economy as well.

JoeP however assures us 80% of Catalans are wrong and Ambrose and Paul are too.

JoeP Researching European Collapse Issues



RE

Tuesday 07 Oct 2014
Is Europe’s economic house of cards about to collapse?

Germany suffered its sharpest drop in industrial production since 2009 in August: factory output fell by 4 per cent – surprising analysts who had expected it to fall more slowly, and boosting fears that Germany will enter recession.

07 germany industry g w Is Europes economic house of cards about to collapse?

Industrial production is just one economic indicator but, as Germany is the workshop of Europe, the slowdown reflects a wider problem hitting Eurozone economies: stagnation.

Italy, France and Germany - the three core economies - are all hovering around either zero growth (for the first two) or growth way below par in Germany’s case. The IMF, in its updated World Economic Outlook, said there was a even a one-in-three chance of the whole Eurozone entering recession this year.

07 recession w Is Europes economic house of cards about to collapse?

And the reason is pretty clear: demand in the Eurozone is suppressed by its busted banking system, which is being made to mend itself, and therefore cannot stimulate the economy through lending.

Unlike Britain the Eurozone’s central bank can’t do quantitative easing (printing money). Nor are the core Eurozone economies prone to cheap labour and property speculation, which have allowed Britain to create hundreds of thousands of jobs without raising wages, and the property market to help revive the rest of the economy.
‘A blank IOU’

So all eyes are now on the European Central Bank. It has promised to re-start “unconventional” monetary policies – buying up pieces of paper called “asset backed securities” to put ready cash into the banks.

But few economists believe this will be enough. On the ECB’s stated aim, of pumping about three trillion euros worth of cash into the economy, it will need around another trillion – and that will have to come through outright QE.

Technically the ECB is not allowed to do this: it would be like Germany signing a blank IOU to the rest of the Eurozone economies. Privately much of the German political class - which has resisted Euro-QE - is coming round to printing money.

But the German electorate is getting very antsy: 12 per cent support for the anti-Euro Alliance for Germany party in two regional elections in September are a signal of that.
No time for schadenfreude

So what people in the markets think is this: the ECB’s boss, Mario Draghi, will do everything he can short of printing money until the new year. Then, as their beloved vorsprung durch technik economy slides into recession, the Germans will come around to letting him print one trillion euros and give it to the banks.

Draghi has already spelled out what the alternative is: abandon the tight austerity targets Europe imposed on itself after the 2010 crisis. But this, too, is deemed politically unacceptable.

So the Eurozone economy remains becalmed – by the aftermath of the banking crisis and the continued inability of policymakers to do the right thing at the right time. The full ghastly picture will come out when the European Commission releases its monthly update on the economy on Thursday.

If you’re thinking of unleashing schadenfreude, don’t. Germany is a big export market for Britain, as is the whole of the Eurozone. If they don’t grow, ultimately, large parts of the UK economy does not grow either. And if that happens, under the fiscal rules set by the coalition government, there would have to be more austerity into the future.

And if the sicker parts of the Eurozone go into deflation – Italy and France are on the brink of that – then the whole Eurocrisis will be back on.
- See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/europes-economic-house-cards-collapse/2427#sthash.NUR5jhOp.dpuf
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2014, 09:50:51 PM »
Europe is looking pretty failed to me.
Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.
FerFAL says of his experience in Argentina that Life after an Economic Collapse is the Same only Worse.  I think this is an excellent article and a good starting point for what to expect in the very near future for Japan and Southern Europe and the moderately near future for Northern Europe and the US.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2014, 10:18:16 PM »
Europe is looking pretty failed to me.
Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.
FerFAL says of his experience in Argentina that Life after an Economic Collapse is the Same only Worse.  I think this is an excellent article and a good starting point for what to expect in the very near future for Japan and Southern Europe and the moderately near future for Northern Europe and the US.

The difference is that in the Argentinian collapse, there was still a functioning Global economy, and functioning currencies like the Euro and Dollar for the Black Market to use.  Ferfal himself was able to have a semi-normal life because he had access to offshore Euros, in a Spanish bank account as I recall.

If/When the Euro & Dollar collapse, it's hard to figure what will be used for black market currency, and it is unlikely to be PMs because there are so few of them around and so few people have any great supply.

RE
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Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2014, 11:47:21 PM »
This Cafe is doing REALLY well!

222 Views so far!

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2014, 06:51:07 AM »
Europe is looking pretty failed to me.
Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.
FerFAL says of his experience in Argentina that Life after an Economic Collapse is the Same only Worse.  I think this is an excellent article and a good starting point for what to expect in the very near future for Japan and Southern Europe and the moderately near future for Northern Europe and the US.

Excellent piece, and much to be learned there. Did you notice this?

A voltage elevator is also a necessary investment so as to compensate for the low voltage “dirty” power that at times is useless.

I think here we'd call that a voltage amplifier. I think you need that to run something like a well pump off of PV, if you aren't using batteries. It's a tech I need to acquire.

I guess i should get a concealed carry permit. Goes against the grain, though.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline JoeP

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2014, 04:23:41 PM »

Europe is looking pretty failed to me.


Not completely. Not many stories of folks out there protesting in the hundreds of thousands. Acceptance by the masses? Must not be too bad.

Paul Mason has some issues here with the Euro economy as well.

JoeP however assures us 80% of Catalans are wrong and Ambrose and Paul are too.

JoeP Researching European Collapse Issues


So tell us, what exactly does the 80% vote get them? A bit of confidence? Not much more as I understand it. You're really the Drama Queen, aren't you RE? It's gonna be more like the sequence laid out in JD's excellent article he hooked us up with, so slow, ya jus don't know? So slow...nobody starts a REAL revolution.  That's my point.  Just kidding 'bout the drama queen stuff - more like a drama girl. Seriously, you were all over ebola out of the gate, and the way you were pitching it, you'd think some Diners might be speculating like 80% of us would be DEAD by now. And a few weeks later, it's not really on the FSA map as a major thang to worry over no mo. What up girl?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 04:36:57 PM by JoeP »
just my straight shooting honest opinion

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2014, 05:20:20 PM »
Joe, I motice a lot of guys now who like a serious conversation talking about everything in decline and where its all leading, and nobody else now says its just negative or gloomy. People saying it without me talking about it first, and others not challenging it. Youre in the Bowie Slow Burn school of thought, but things can take a sudden turn for the worse, fiddle while it burns is the best we can do.

the walls shall have ears and the doors shall have eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkjOXSNBqKo



« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 05:31:42 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2014, 05:29:44 PM »
It's gonna be more like the sequence laid out in JD's excellent article he hooked us up with, so slow, ya jus don't know? So slow...nobody starts a REAL revolution.  That's my point.
I think Cyprus was the real inflection point for the collapse.  TPTB were testing just how fast a collapse people would tolerate.  And they got TWO answers.  If it affects them directly, yeah, people are going to react very badly.  But if it doesn't, they don't care.  After the precedent was set with the bail-in, smart people all over the world would have massively pulled their money out of any banks that were shaky in their investments.  But like lambs to the slaughter, they just wait patiently, maybe bleating ineffectually, but not bolting for the exits.

That's how TPTB will try to make it play out, picking off people and nations one-by-one.  Whether they will be successful is the question.
Quote
Seriously, you were all over ebola out of the gate, and the way you were pitching it, you'd think some Diners might be speculating like 80% of us would be DEAD by now. And a few weeks later, it's not really on the FSA map as a major thang to worry over no mo.
The irony of the self-defeating prophet...  The reason why Ebola isn't such a big deal is because PEOPLE TOOK ACTION!  Specifically, I heard recently that 13 of the treatment centers that the US Army is building in West Africa are already completed.

If we took such a pro-active stance toward every problem we faced, we could completely avoid a collapse.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 11/9/2014
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2014, 06:03:27 PM »
Joe, I motice a lot of guys now who like a serious conversation talking about everything in decline and where its all leading, and nobody else now says its just negative or gloomy. People saying it without me talking about it first, and others not challenging it. Youre in the Bowie Slow Burn school of thought, but things can take a sudden turn for the worse, fiddle while it burns is the best we can do.

the walls shall have ears and the doors shall have eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkjOXSNBqKo

Forget it UB, it's not a collapse until Joe loses his job.

RE
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