AuthorTopic: Oil Price Crash!!!  (Read 39326 times)

Offline g

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #135 on: January 09, 2015, 05:29:21 AM »
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When those contracts get renegotiated by the supermarket bean counters, if you think supermarkets are going to drop their prices because of lower up front transportation costs, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  8)

Of course AG, and the airline cartel has already stated publically to forget about lower fares from the oil price crack, and they are goosing the baggage again.   :'(

Oh dont think I havent noticed that GO, its illegal anticompetetive price fixing. Assholes.

I don't fly Unc, so my bitch is yours, obvious price fixing by a cartel. Like all things in our corrupt system, no on does a thing about it unless TPTB are affected.

People cry that capitalism and the free market don't work. We haven't had any, but mostly predatory monopolistic corporations and cartels with nothing but gouging on their mind. The private sector is corrupt as well. No competition, all the doctors, lawyers, oil distributors, dentists, even barbers form so called associations where they meet to supposedly discuss problems in their so called industry, but the real reason is to fix prices. It is filtered down to plumbers, electricians, movie theaters, gin mills, you name it.

There are of course exceptions, but they are dwindling in number. These friggin auto dealers in my area have all gotten together and charge what is called a documentation fee to buy a friggin car of 300 bucks. It is nothing more than a charge they dreamed up to charge you to pay for their employee that write up the bill of sale, and they tack on an extra 250 to line their own pocket. Every one of those low lifes charge it. and every single one of them, no matter what the car brand does it. Call 10 different GM dealers around here for the price of the exact car and thir isn't 10 dollars difference. Who is kidding who?? :'( :exp-angry:

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #136 on: January 09, 2015, 05:31:11 AM »
Oh, I believe Steve is correct. However, I don't think the coming deflation will be a symmetrical event.

My considered opinion is that in spite of the oil patch fiasco, my town will continue to be an aberration. For instance, in 2008, although property values did fall a little, rents never even declined at all.

I think that on a short term time horizon (like ten years) that demographics will actually continue to push more people here from other areas, like CA and the eastern rust belt states. For that reason, we will weather the coming storm better than most places.

Would now be a good time to cash out of the house? Yes, except that a lot of people live there.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #137 on: January 09, 2015, 05:43:00 AM »
Oh, I believe Steve is correct. However, I don't think the coming deflation will be a symmetrical event.

My considered opinion is that in spite of the oil patch fiasco, my town will continue to be an aberration.

Call this "Austin Exceptionalism::)

Quote
I think that on a short term time horizon (like ten years) that demographics will actually continue to push more people here from other areas, like CA and the eastern rust belt states. For that reason, we will weather the coming storm better than most places.

How'z that water table doing there?  People are gonna move from CA to ANOTHER place with dried up lakes?  What?

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Would now be a good time to cash out of the house? Yes, except that a lot of people live there.

You could house all the same folks in a luxury Rental property, paid for on the profit taken from selling out on the current digs, if you can get a Chinese Investor to cough up big bucks for it while the getting is good.

Your choice here.  I am just trying to save you a few $100K at least.  Worst case scenario I am wrong, you STILL got  big pile of money and paid off bizness and toothstead.  However, I am not wrong, and neither is Steve.

RE
« Last Edit: January 09, 2015, 05:45:32 AM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #138 on: January 09, 2015, 05:58:19 AM »
The water situation here is not critical, in spite of the drought. It will be eventually, but it's not here yet, and my guess is that it'll be 20 years before we are in the shape CA is in now.

You could house all the same folks in a luxury Rental property, paid for on the profit taken from selling out on the current digs, if you can get a Chinese Investor to cough up big bucks for it while the getting is good.

I have even better options than that, but I really ought to be less public about my private life, I suppose. But I'm inclined to try to rent the house rather than sell it, if I have to deleverage.

It would all be simpler if I had a nice dwelling on the stead, but i'm just not there yet.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #139 on: January 09, 2015, 06:08:28 AM »
you missed what Eddie's wife did....and that was the ADDITIONAL mint he could have created by doing the very basic scheme that I have been quite happy with the results of for decades now.

Yes, you and my wife were right about equities. I never said that buying equities at the bottom in 2008-2009 was going to be a bad strategy. I just said it was high risk. At some point in life it's better to reduce your risk, especially if you think you don't need huge returns.

I decided in 2009-2010 that i could achieve my goals primarily by saving rather than gambling, and sleep better at night.  It caused me to make some serious changes in the way i was allocating my so called retirement funds.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #140 on: January 09, 2015, 06:09:16 AM »
The water situation here is not critical, in spite of the drought. It will be eventually, but it's not here yet, and my guess is that it'll be 20 years before we are in the shape CA is in now.

You could house all the same folks in a luxury Rental property, paid for on the profit taken from selling out on the current digs, if you can get a Chinese Investor to cough up big bucks for it while the getting is good.

I have even better options than that, but I really ought to be less public about my private life, I suppose. But I'm inclined to try to rent the house rather than sell it, if I have to deleverage.

It would all be simpler if I had a nice dwelling on the stead, but i'm just not there yet.

Well, you probably will not agree with my assessment in the next Rant then.  LOL.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #141 on: January 09, 2015, 06:22:04 AM »
Hehehe.

It's the timeline that none of us is sure of. It's easy to see the trends, and i won't argue about those. The trends are awful.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2015, 06:27:16 AM by Eddie »
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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #142 on: January 09, 2015, 06:26:11 AM »
Hehehe.

It's the timelines that none of us is sure of. It's easy to see the trends, and i won't argue about those. The trends are awful.

Not really a timeline question in this case, relatively timeline independent.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #143 on: January 09, 2015, 06:32:29 AM »
The timeline is critical, where water is concerned. We have a minor problem at the moment. it will no doubt get worse. But until it does, and it won't be in the next 3-5 years, the demographic shift into Texas will almost certainly continue.

Jobs may tank, but we have this huge wave of boomers who are pulling the plug on work, and they're going to move out of states with high taxes and look for good deals on property in a warm place somewhere. Like here.

Long term that's probably a terrible choice. But people aren't that smart, to make their decisions based on good sense.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline MKing

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #144 on: January 09, 2015, 07:04:39 AM »

Jobs may tank, but we have this huge wave of boomers who are pulling the plug on work, and they're going to move out of states with high taxes and look for good deals on property in a warm place somewhere. Like here.

And as they age, they need their teeth fixed.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #145 on: January 09, 2015, 08:38:16 AM »


And as they age, they need their teeth fixed.


Not my target market, but some work is better than no work.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline MKing

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #146 on: January 09, 2015, 08:56:09 AM »


And as they age, they need their teeth fixed.


Not my target market, but some work is better than no work.

I feel exactly the same way. Take 100% of the oil and gas products demanded by fine upstanding consumers like JRM and Surly and Anthony, cut it by even 40% with increasing efficiency on the part of same consumer, substitution by renewables, and the hit to industry would be even higher…say you axe 65% of industry personnel, needing only 35% of remaining personnel to supply that 60% to consumers. Based on demographics, I'm pretty confident I would be one of the folks still around, thanking my stars that fine consumers like those previously mentioned will use the product until the day they die. Or until I die. Just have to keep the kids out of the business is all.
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Offline Karpatok

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #147 on: January 09, 2015, 09:13:22 AM »
Oh, I believe Steve is correct. However, I don't think the coming deflation will be a symmetrical event.

My considered opinion is that in spite of the oil patch fiasco, my town will continue to be an aberration.

Call this "Austin Exceptionalism::)

Quote
I think that on a short term time horizon (like ten years) that demographics will actually continue to push more people here from other areas, like CA and the eastern rust belt states. For that reason, we will weather the coming storm better than most places.

How'z that water table doing there?  People are gonna move from CA to ANOTHER place with dried up lakes?  What?

Quote
Would now be a good time to cash out of the house? Yes, except that a lot of people live there.

You could house all the same folks in a luxury Rental property, paid for on the profit taken from selling out on the current digs, if you can get a Chinese Investor to cough up big bucks for it while the getting is good.

Your choice here.  I am just trying to save you a few $100K at least.  Worst case scenario I am wrong, you STILL got  big pile of money and paid off bizness and toothstead.  However, I am not wrong, and neither is Steve.

RE
   Well,RE, you beat me to it because I live in California and am very worried about future lack of water but no way in Hell would I or anyone I know here dream of moving to Texas for water reasons plus many more, such as political climate, general cultural ethos, etc. Ditto Nevada, Arizona for instance. Ever heard of out of the frying pan into the fire? Plus I know all about debt and good intentions and then margin calls. First you have the good intentions and keep rolling it over as they suck you in, and then one day when it's increasingly hard to service it all because like the red queen you are running at top speed and are still losing ground, you simply say, "To hell with it" And the only thing that counts is what you have is with you at all times only known to yourself. It's very obvious that you could never leave a million cash in the bank because the IRS would never give up until they got most of it or it is whopped by a bail in. People should not even brag on the internet about what they've got because it will be sought and some of it taken.Karpatok

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #148 on: January 09, 2015, 09:38:23 AM »
 no way in Hell would I or anyone I know here dream of moving to Texas for water reasons plus many more, such as political climate, general cultural ethos, etc.

I have no argument with your logic or your general distaste for BAU in Texas, but nevertheless, approximately 1000 people a day are relocating to Texas each and every day. More than 100 to Austin alone. And that number is NET, and subtracts out those moving away.

Completely stupid and unsustainable. But it is what it is.

Don't construe my rants here as bragging. I'm as worried as anyone, and I'm not immune to collapse. I just like to discuss these things, and I'm not afraid of anyone taking whatever I have. If TSHTF, I intend to share what I have, as far as I am able. Those intending to take it away from me will be met with resistance, however. I might lose, but I'll go down fighting. As good a way to die as any (although i was hoping to quietly pass away in my sleep, this incarnation.  :)  )
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Karpatok

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #149 on: January 09, 2015, 09:57:42 AM »
no way in Hell would I or anyone I know here dream of moving to Texas for water reasons plus many more, such as political climate, general cultural ethos, etc.

I have no argument with your logic or your general distaste for BAU in Texas, but nevertheless, approximately 1000 people a day are relocating to Texas each and every day. More than 100 to Austin alone. And that number is NET, and subtracts out those moving away.

Completely stupid and unsustainable. But it is what it is.

Don't construe my rants here as bragging. I'm as worried as anyone, and I'm not immune to collapse. I just like to discuss these things, and I'm not afraid of anyone taking whatever I have. If TSHTF, I intend to share what I have, as far as I am able. Those intending to take it away from me will be met with resistance, however. I might lose, but I'll go down fighting. As good a way to die as any (although i was hoping to quietly pass away in my sleep, this incarnation.  :)  )
     I am not pointing out you necessarily but you know there has been a lot of chest beating here in regard to money, abilities, knowledge and so forth. I grew up in another time and place where it was not considered proper or desirable to discuss one's wealth or property with practically anyone else. Especially looked down upon were ostentatious displays and pretentiousness. That was considered very parvenue and belonging to people of relatively low origins. Of course I have always said that everyone coming to this land in the first place were of necessity of low origins otherwise why would they have come? Exception being perhaps original land grants from the sovereign. I will never forget how my father pointed out privately to me how many individual families around us were neck deep in debt and striving to hold on through pretense. Too bad I didn't learn enough from him. He was quite self made and taught himself as he went along. And he always did it his way.  Karpatok

 

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