AuthorTopic: Oil Price Crash!!!  (Read 43702 times)

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #120 on: January 08, 2015, 04:37:46 PM »
I was debt free on the practice, which you're right, is the most important area to be debt free. But I just had to finally buy 20K worth of new digital x-ray equipment to bring us into the modern world. It isn't much debt, and I'll pay it off in 2 years easily (famous last words), but I don't like it. But two years interest free financing made it better than paying cash up front.

I have a lot of mortgage debt, but I also own a lot of assets free and clear. They will have a hard time taking me down completely. But I expect that it will take a lot of discipline to stay moderately financially healthy as we spin down here.

The other way they get guys like me is through tax audits, which are basically just exploratory fishing expeditions to extort revenue from sources likely to still have enough fat left for the government to trim off a little piece. You're rocking along thinking you might have an extra 100K in the bank...and then poof, it's gone, like that. It happens. It's happened to me, more than once.

Ed can I ask how this works out compared to sending patients away for imaging? Surely u dont hire your own radiologist. Did u or a nurse get a license training in imaging tech sufficient. Surely if it is not u doing it the tech would take at least 100K year, otherwise they can go and do that full time for more than u pay as they are in demand. Also are patients paying up front and then claiming back on the insurance or are u providing service and then waiting for when or if the insurance pays u, or does the governor or obama pay for scans?
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #121 on: January 08, 2015, 04:41:25 PM »
At least you held on to it for a little while, hope you didn't get too attached to it.  :exp-laugh: :exp-laugh:

The real key is to make yourself be disciplined enough to have the money in the bank, just in case. That way you can write a check and start over. Much better than plan B, which is Chapter 11.

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Offline agelbert

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #122 on: January 08, 2015, 04:43:37 PM »
Eddie said,
Quote
But the fact is that we haven't been in a truly inflationary environment since 2008.



Tell that to my grocery bill. :(

I have not purchased any clothing for over ten years. I save water to the point of not flushing unless it is number two (even though I DO NOT pay for water - it's part of my lot rent).

I am frugal to a fault. I stopped using kerosene to heat my house over ten years ago and have saved a bundle MAINLY in avoiding the furnace inspection and maintenance SCAM annual costs of over $150. Do you know what it costs to have one of those fine fellows show up when you have "NO HEAT" in the dead of winter? NINETY DOLLARS BEFORE any parts or labor.

FUCK THAT and fuck the heating oil price gougers in the service of fossil fuels every year. I have used ZERO fossil fuels to cut my grass and shovel my snow.

My wife has been combining errands so fastidiously that we have used as much gasoline in ten years as the average American does in one.  :icon_mrgreen: In short, I have given the GIANT FINGER to fossil fuels, but I CANNOT control the price of food and CANNOT grow my own because of park regulations. 

I buy LOCAL as much as possible and organic, no matter the cost.

Food has had a LOT of inflation since 2008. And right now, trucking companies servicing supermarkets are making tidy profits on their contracts.

When those contracts get renegotiated by the supermarket bean counters, if you think supermarkets are going to drop their prices because of lower up front transportation costs, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  8)
« Last Edit: January 08, 2015, 04:47:11 PM by agelbert »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #123 on: January 08, 2015, 04:48:06 PM »
Tell that to my grocery bill.  :(

Yeah, I know AG. But I was talking about asset inflation.

We have plenty of cost-push inflation in food, clothing, durable goods...we have inflation in the things we need to buy, and deflation in the things we own. Worst of both worlds.
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Offline MKing

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!! Mounting Debt for Oil Drillers
« Reply #124 on: January 08, 2015, 04:49:16 PM »
The problem is that oil prices won’t rise until there is a cutback in production. But with more debt to pay off, no company can afford to reduce production now. Indeed, drillers are even more desperate to maintain or boost production so that they can substitute lost value with more volume.   ::) ::) :icon_scratch:


I think it is absolutely hysterical that people need to relearn this one each time it happens. Completely true statement, and happening the same time as folks are deciding which of the warm bodies they acquired during the boom are the first out the door…like I said..cutting the fat during the first round of reductions isn't the problem, it is cutting the meat that hurts.

The issue ALWAYS being, when it comes time to swing back into action, do you have enough muscle left to outrun the other survivors to prepare for the next big opportunity.

Quote from: Golden Oxen
For bigger companies, “capital discipline” is the name of the game, meaning a large cut in capital spending for exploration this year. While that may not affect production in the short-term – there is a backlog of oil wells that are nearing completion – by the end of 2015 [10] production could begin to dip. The U.S. may finally see the shale boom begin to reverse.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com   :icon_study:

Amazing that it might be an entire year before working rigs, existing wells, completion backlogs and pipeline connections are worked through before production might come down.
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Offline g

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #125 on: January 08, 2015, 04:51:45 PM »
Quote
When those contracts get renegotiated by the supermarket bean counters, if you think supermarkets are going to drop their prices because of lower up front transportation costs, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  8)

Of course AG, and the airline cartel has already stated publically to forget about lower fares from the oil price crack, and they are goosing the baggage again.   :'(

Offline MKing

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #126 on: January 08, 2015, 04:53:23 PM »
Earth is our home.

OUR home.

Get it?

Nothing belongs to us.

We belong to Earth. Which is our home.

A bit curious, who's computer did you use to type this post….the earth's? Can you tell me where I might find the earth making these things…might come in handy if mine craps out.

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #127 on: January 08, 2015, 05:07:32 PM »
Ed can I ask how this works out compared to sending patients away for imaging? Surely u dont hire your own radiologist. Did u or a nurse get a license training in imaging tech sufficient. Surely if it is not u doing it the tech would take at least 100K year, otherwise they can go and do that full time for more than u pay as they are in demand. Also are patients paying up front and then claiming back on the insurance or are u providing service and then waiting for when or if the insurance pays u, or does the governor or obama pay for scans?

Radiologists are physicians and they don't know shit about reading dental x-rays, trust me on that one. Dentists read their own films.

Generally insurance pays for dental x-rays, but only according to whatever guidelines the insurance company dictates,like maybe a full set of films every 3-5 years and bite-wing (cavity checking) films once a year. We also take two other films in the office, which are the Panogram that shows the full jaw and all the teeth, but at lower resolution. This one is used to check tooth eruption on kids and then on adults we use it to evaluate wisdom teeth and folks who might need full mouth extractions and dentures.

We take the lateral cephalogram for kids going into braces.

The tiny films (or these days digital sensors) are the bite-wings and periapicals. Eighteen of those to get a full adult survey.

Sending patients out for imaging is impractical unless you might be in or near a building with such a service. And it's lost revenue, although it might work out okay for someone trying to keep costs really low. In general X-ray equipment pays for itself because you use it on pretty much every patient, the reimbursement is within reason.

A big part of dentistry is rapidly diagnosing painful conditions, and there is no substitute for x-ray data there. It usually instantly lets us see the problem, whereas without it we might not be able to pinpoint the problem. So you need it, need it right now, don't have time to wait, etc.

My problem with going to digital was mostly a logistical one, or I'd have done it some time back. My office is very small, as RE can tell you.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2015, 05:09:35 PM by Eddie »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #128 on: January 08, 2015, 05:28:51 PM »
It isnt bad design if it is doing what it was designed to do.

On some level, it was by design, and yes, it is a shining success at doing what it does: empower and enrich a few at the cost of everything and everyone else.

But while it is partly by design, it is also largely created by bricolage, and very shoddily -- and thus its various weaknesses and fragilities.

It's ultimate power is merely the illusions it projects onto the walls.  "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" - Wizard of Oz

When we believe these illusions it has power. When we see that the emperor is naked, he's shivering in the cold.

"We" keep the illusion real by killing dreamers like you. John Lennon, Bob Marley, Socrates, Che Guevera, Ghandi, Abe Lincoln, Reddit Dude, MLK, Jesus, JFK, JRM.

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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #129 on: January 08, 2015, 05:40:28 PM »
Quote
When those contracts get renegotiated by the supermarket bean counters, if you think supermarkets are going to drop their prices because of lower up front transportation costs, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  8)

Of course AG, and the airline cartel has already stated publically to forget about lower fares from the oil price crack, and they are goosing the baggage again.   :'(

Oh dont think I havent noticed that GO, its illegal anticompetetive price fixing. Assholes.
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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #130 on: January 08, 2015, 05:46:56 PM »

I am frugal to a fault. I stopped using kerosene to heat my house over ten years ago and have saved a bundle MAINLY in avoiding the furnace inspection and maintenance SCAM annual costs of over $150. Do you know what it costs to have one of those fine fellows show up when you have "NO HEAT" in the dead of winter? NINETY DOLLARS BEFORE any parts or labor.

What are you heating with?  Wood stove?

You could save some money on food by doing some gardening on your lot.

RE
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Offline Bot Blogger

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #131 on: January 08, 2015, 05:49:09 PM »
The issue I see is if you advocate for a true policy of sustainability (i.e. a policy that minimises consumption) people will not believe in it because you are making an argument for a recession.

Analyzed from within the perspective (beliefs, attitudes, assumptions) of the currently popular paradigm (See end note), a "recession" can only be a bad thing, can only be a diminishment of the quality of life, can only have negative social and personal consequences....

It takes a lot of studious work to acquire another set of intellectual and spiritual goggles, to discover a perfectly rational and intellectually defensible alternative to the dominant paradigm and its view on this particular issue about what a recession or depression must be. But once one begins to see the world through this alternate lens, the old paradigm looks silly, paltry and ridiculous. And it becomes very possible to imagine a genuinely possible world where people are much happier, healthier and better off even with a dramatic reduction in the current money economy.

The key to getting a fresh pair of goggles here is to think in terms -- mainly -- of nature's own physical systems. I promise you if you do this very thoughtfully and carefully over time you will begin to see a possible world in which we humans can thrive and have glorious lives together even if "the economy" were to go belly up -- provided it does not do so all at once, of a sudden.

One clue: In nature, Waste Is Food.

In industrial civilization, waste is pollution, is land fills, is toxic, is deadly....

Nature has plenty more clues. Study nature.


End Note:

The paradigm I have in mind is multi-disciplinary -- not contained by any single "discipline" such as economics, but distributed across many sciences and embedded deeply in our culture as a whole)


Ok you are starting to talk like Garbage Warrior!!


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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #132 on: January 08, 2015, 10:56:21 PM »
I was debt free on the practice, which you're right, is the most important area to be debt free. But I just had to finally buy 20K worth of new digital x-ray equipment to bring us into the modern world. It isn't much debt, and I'll pay it off in 2 years easily (famous last words), but I don't like it. But two years interest free financing made it better than paying cash up front.

I have a lot of mortgage debt, but I also own a lot of assets free and clear. They will have a hard time taking me down completely. But I expect that it will take a lot of discipline to stay moderately financially healthy as we spin down here.

I was thinking about this issue today, and it seems to me that since we KNOW that with the collapse of the Fracking Boom that recession (at least) is coming to Texas AND Property Values will start to tumble in the aftermath of that, this would be the time to SELL OUT on all your TX properties besides the Toothstead and the Bizness.  SELL IT ALL while the prices are still high, use the profit to pay off the Toothstead AND the Digital X-Ray Equipment, then to keep the Wife happy, rent an even NICER McMansion or Condo than you currently are living in in a Ritzy neighborhood of Austin.  DELEVERAGE NOW!  Sell at the Market High Point!

You probably even will pocket enough to buy a fully equipped 34' Trimaran and a 1-Ton Pickup modified for Electric with a full set of Li-I Batteries to tow it with, AND take a class to get your Class A CDL and set up a Towing Bizness of which you are the sole employee so you can tow wide vehicles on TX Highways!  I think I covered everything here.   :icon_mrgreen:

Or you could wait until the market collapses and have a bunch of properties you owe ever increasing TAXES on with an ever decreasing income from clients who can't pay for a new smile.  Something to ponder on there.  :icon_scratch:

RE
« Last Edit: January 08, 2015, 11:20:30 PM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #133 on: January 09, 2015, 04:35:28 AM »
I am very well aware that deleveraging now is a good option. Unfortunately, it just ain't that simple.

Instead I've doubled up on paying everything off. I'm betting on being able to continue to service my debt for a few more years. Hope I'm right.
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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash!!!
« Reply #134 on: January 09, 2015, 04:54:48 AM »
I am very well aware that deleveraging now is a good option. Unfortunately, it just ain't that simple.

Instead I've doubled up on paying everything off. I'm betting on being able to continue to service my debt for a few more years. Hope I'm right.

Nothing in life is simple.

However, TODAY, if you dropped your McMansion on the market, you might get some idiot to buy it for $1M or so.  A Chinese idiot probably.

If you WAIT until 2016, my best guess is you won't have that opportunity to exit at that price.

I am reminded of Mom selling out on the Queens McHovel.  She got around $165K for it, but prior to that she could have got $300K.

Basically, it comes down to whether you believe Steve and me are RIGHT or not.  If you think we are right, the time to get out is NOW.  You don't have to leave the Bizness, you don't have to leave Texas.  You just have to deleverage.

RE
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