AuthorTopic: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014  (Read 2259 times)

Offline RE

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Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« on: December 07, 2014, 03:40:35 PM »
EXCELENTO Collapse Cafe today with Guests Ugo Bardi from Resource Limits, Steve Ludlum from Economic Undertow and Ron Patterson from Peak Oil Barrel.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/o65-kZu2Owg?feature=player_embedded" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/o65-kZu2Owg?feature=player_embedded</a>

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Offline azozeo

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2014, 04:05:23 PM »
Thanks for posting RE
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why youíre here. Youíre here because you know something. What you know you canít explain, but you feel it. Youíve felt it your entire life, that thereís something wrong with the world.
You donít know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2014, 04:54:59 PM »
Thanks AZ.

This one is doing really well, 124 Views already!  :emthup:

The prior one also has good legs, and is now past 600 Views.  :icon_sunny:

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Offline roamer

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2014, 07:26:25 PM »
Thanks RE for coordinating the convergence of these doomstars.  I think Ron is a bit off about active rig count increasing in the bakken, its been fairly flat last i checked and as i have mentioned before i know of a couple of rigs that have been stacked out and some that will be stacked out when current wells are completed.  Of course all that really is worth keeping an eye on is active rig count https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/riglist.asp .  I personally expect changes to occur there at the start of the fiscal year based on warnings the small service provider i work for has given us about upcoming work.  It is truly hard to fathom how funds can continually be allocated to drilling wells in the bakken at current rate when it is in all likelihood being done at a net loss. 

If drilling does not decrease in bakken at current prices I think it indicates an even more dire situation than if there is a bust as it would seem that we are doubling up our bets on increasing oil prices and then spreading the financial risks out in the greater system.  That wouldn't end well.  So i personally am hoping for a pretty big bust here,  followed by a resurgence of interest in peak oil, and a MASSIVE expenditure to transition to an increasingly feasible solar PV future.  Of course flying pigs may be an equally likely outcome....

Offline roamer

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2014, 09:01:43 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/DhKVych80ME&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/DhKVych80ME&fs=1</a>
« Last Edit: December 08, 2014, 09:12:23 PM by roamer »

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2014, 03:52:53 AM »
Now @ the 200 Views Mark on this Vidcast! In ONE DAY!!!!!

Also back down to 73K FSoA on Alexa!

16 LISTENS already on the Mark Garavan Interview!

We are COOKING WITH GAS!  :emthup: :icon_sunny:

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Offline roamer

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2014, 07:57:16 PM »
Worth keeping an eye on bakken rig count https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/riglist.asp I know for a fact that at least 10 rigs are going to be stacked out upon well completion.  Those numbers are likely to start to slide real soon....

Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2014, 08:13:06 PM »
Worth keeping an eye on bakken rig count https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/riglist.asp I know for a fact that at least 10 rigs are going to be stacked out upon well completion.  Those numbers are likely to start to slide real soon....

Likely to accelerate here as WTI now down to around $61, with the $50s likely in the next week.

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It's Different This Time... Rig-Count Edition

Tyler Durden's picture



 

In July 2008, crude oil prices peaked and began to fall quickly. After 2 months they had dropped 30%, but being the smartest extrapolators in the room, producers piled on the rig count driving it higher and higher until around 5 months after oil prices peaked... the rig count completely collapsed. Today, it has now been almost 6 months since oil peaked and began its accelerating free-fall and rig counts have just started to drop (still 2% above the June peak oil levels)...  

 

There is always a lag... and with permits down 40%, let's just see if it's different this time...

 

Of course, it's different this time... it's way worse! All these rigs are backed by massive debt loads at drastically lower costs of funding than is possible now... but we should ignore that, right?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Offline roamer

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2014, 08:24:25 PM »
Yeah it doesn't look good, thinking mass exodus start of the new year...   Its going to be awfully interesting to see just how much exposure the financial system has to the HY bonds that have fueled some of the bakkens growth.  Even without much exposure the loss of drilling activity in the bakken is going to be rather profound. 

Offline MKing

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2014, 01:39:05 PM »
Yeah it doesn't look good, thinking mass exodus start of the new year...   Its going to be awfully interesting to see just how much exposure the financial system has to the HY bonds that have fueled some of the bakkens growth.  Even without much exposure the loss of drilling activity in the bakken is going to be rather profound.

Depends on how the price of natural gas holds up. Any decent walker rig capable of what, 750K hookload, top drive system and decent triplex pumps can go to work back east as fast as it can be moved. Will depend on company exposure and hedging on their wet/dry gas locations I imagine, but what appears to be disappearing is the BTU premium on the liquids that generated much activity and interest in the first place. About time the differential got back to historical norms.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline RE

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Re: Collapse Cafe 12/7/2014
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2014, 07:58:07 PM »
Latest Cafe is now up to 405 Views in 4 Days, averaging 100/day!  :icon_sunny:  Looks like it will top the prior one @ 619 Views sometime next week.

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