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Archives of Reverse Engineering
« on: December 11, 2014, 10:52:28 AM »
Roamer asked me for some proof of my predictions about Deflation and China over in the Chinese Toast thread, which got me cruising through the archives on Reverse Engineering.  This is a Private Group and I can't make it public, the Yahoo system doesn't let you do that.

Periodically though, I'll look for fun stuff from there to repost here.  This one is a CLASSIC!  I actually even got EXTINCTION into this one, long before reading any Guy McPherson!  I got a longer timeline than him on it though.  LOL.

RE

Hyperinflation Geopolitics

    reverseengineer77
    Nov 9, 2010

    There has been a lot of heavy Paranoia being tossed around the blogosphere by some Economic Pundits with predictions of incipient Hyperinflation (Can-U-Spell G-O-N-Z-A-L-O L-I-R-A? LOL. Are you out there reading this Gonzalo?), particularly in the most essential of all currently Monetized Commodities, Food. Water is even more essential, but at least in most places it hasn't been as thoroughly monetized as the food resource has been. Not to say this will not come to pass in the future, it probably will but only after this destructive phase of the 4 Turnings has run its course.

    Before continuing on with this article, I want to reiterate for those who do not know that I am a Deflationato, not an Inflationista, so along with folks like Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh of Automatic Earth) I argue the opposite side of the debate with Inflationistas like Gonzalo. It is my belief right now that all the money Helicopter Ben is Printing and distributing out to the TBTF Banks to keep the Stock Market floating and to bid Commodities up into the Stratosphere is all going to burn up rapidly as all these markets come crashing back downward, in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in All of Recorded History. The only way a Hyperinflationary scenario can really take off is if at some point Da Goobermint starts distributing out currency to J6P to buy the products at these inflated prices. As of yet, that is not happening. It may happen in the future if Da Goobermint reacts to a Price Spike by indexing wages and printing money to cover that, but I don't see that in the cards yet either. However, on the assumption I am WRONG here, I am going to look at some outcomes relating to Hyperinflationary scenarios, and how they might play out Geopolitically.

    First, I want to focus on the paranoia that in the near future Hyperinflation of the Dollar will price most Amerikans out of the Food Market. To experiment with this on the practical level, I ventured out today to purchase enough Food for the coming week, at the current prices which in theory are supposed to be on average something like 30% higher than they were last year at this time according to the COMEX, but in actual practice at the retail level are nowhere near that level of inflationary pricing.

    I did not even buy what are some of the cheapest sources of calories, like the 50lb bags of Rice which make up most of my calorie content for long term food storage, rather I bought "On Sale" processed and packaged foods that I can easily cook up in the Microwave, or heat up on my BBQ if the power goes out, or just eat right outta da can or box once the frozen stuff is allowed to thaw since it is precooked. What did I buy?

    1 36 oz Package Stouffers Cheddar Potatoes with Bacon 1800 Calories $6.00

    1 36 oz Package Stouffers Broccoli Au Gratin 1500 calories $6.00

    14 15 oz Cans Nalle Thick Chili Con Carne 7560 calories $14.00

    18 count Large WA State Eggs 1260 calories $3.00

    This is a total of for the week around 13,380 calories for $29, slightly under 2000 cal/day which if I don't go overboard exercising I will gradually get fat on. I could actually have done this quite a bit cheaper by using bulk staples, but for an Amerikan, $29 for the week in food is minimal right now. This menu has plenty of Animal Protein along with the fat and carb calories, though like all diets weighted with processed foods is a bit short on vitamins. The only "fresh food" in this week's purchase were the eggs. I have Vitamin supplements to make up for that shortage, a One a Day + Vitamin C supplement costs me about $1 a day but I didn't buy a 500 package this week, since I have just tons of them already. LOL. However, add $7 for the week in Vitamins, now we are at $36 for the week. I actually WILL live on JUST this food for the next week, much as it pains me to do so, given I also bought a couple of nice Ecuadorian Lobster Tails that were Price Cut and I am freezing for future use, not to mention all those Rib Eye Steaks I buy whenever I catch a sale. I will let you guys know if I feel Hungry at the end of the week. I doubt it. Note the preponderance of Calories comes from those Cans of Cheap Chile con Carne, which will last for at least a couple of YEARS on the shelf. If I do NOT eat all 14 this week (and I seriously doubt I will), a few cans go into SHTF Storage. Remember ALSO that on any given day/week/month that I see actual retail food prices hyperinflating I can go out and basically empty the shelf of the cans of Nalle Chile even at twice the current price of $1/can and buy 1000 of them. The only limiting factor on that is my being somewhat ahead of the curve relative to everyone else in my neighborhood and making it to the supermarket before them to empty the shelf. I make it my PRACTICE to go every day into the supermarket and observe what is available on the shelves and what the prices are, not to mention my daily reading of the blogosphere. Trust me, if/when this thing goes ballistic, I am going to be way ahead of my local community as a shelf emptier. LOL.

    After that, my main problem would be protecting and defending my supply of preps from the people who were AFTER me in waking up and smelling the coffee, but my plan for that is to SHARE everything I buy up with my friends and protect the whole larder TOGETHER in a Central Food Bank. I already have 2 years of long lasting food supplies for myself, I figure I can double that at least in the last month or two before final collapse. When I see it occurring, I will of course also let my friends know the TIME has COME to divest of your Toilet Paper and buy what hard goods you can. With luck, together we can all grab hold of 2-3 years worth of food off the shelves at Walmart, Carr's, Fred Meyer and Three Bears, the main industrial food distribution outlets up here. Protecting and defending it is the more difficult task than actually getting hold of it as the spin down accelerates in pace, at least if you get in early and are at the front of the line. My paradigm is to establish a Food Bank among the 1000 or so families we serve here in the Mat Valley. Needless to say, many of them are State Troopers and Military Personnel. This is ALASKA. Its already a freaking Military compound. The main danger with setting up such a Food Bank here would be the Military taking direct control over our food bank, this is an outcome we cannot do anything about. However, my guess is that at least for a while the Military will actually be the ones pretty well stocked themselves and distributing out "Gooberment Cheese" to the population. At any rate, we stand a better chance as a group maintaining control over this food supply than any individual would. Individuals with such supplies will be labeled as "hoarders", which in fact is what everyone who saves is. LOL.

    I am not concerned we will not have enough firepower to defend the food bank locally from the Zombie threat, EVERYBODY has weapons here. I mean EVERYBODY, and LOTS of them per capita. Its an OBSESSION of people in Alaska to own a LOT of GUNS, even more than Texans. A very close friend of mine collects AR-15s, every time he sees a good deal on one he buys it. He has a fucking ARMORY in the basement, at least 10 or so of this particular weapon and assorted others and lord only knows how much Ammo. This is his Hedge, and its not atypical up here. I am not such a big gun freak as that, but I do have my AR-50BMG. This is my Hunting Rifle, it is Overkill but I like to practice long range shooting in the 500-1000 yard range and this rifle is very good for such long ranges. For personal Defense I have my Smith & Wesson .45 Revolver for knocking down a Brown Bear at close range if need be and a 9mm Glock Semi Automatic for Close Quarters Zombie Defense. Then I have my "Primitive Weapons" array including a Crossbow and two Compound Bows, 2 Wrist Rocket Slingshots and even a really old fashioned Sling like David used on Goliath, but I am not terrifically accurate with it as of yet. In fact, I am probably the only person reasonably safe when I start swinging the thing around, since there is no telling in a 360 degree radius around me where the damn steel shot will fly. LOL. Boy does it ever fly fast though and go POW when it hits something, although I never know exactly what I will hit. LOL. There is no DOUBT you could knock down and out and possibly even outright kill an NFL Middle Linebacker or NBA Center or Power Forward (modern day Goliaths) at 20-30 feet if you were accurate enough to bean him right between the eyes or better yet a direct hit on one of his eye sockets with only soft tissue between the steel shot and his Brain. OK, really I have it down to about 20 degrees now toward the intended target so behind me is sorta safe, but HTF you can get more accurate than that so far escapes my limits. Practice, practice, practice I suppose. My next experiment in primitive Weapons is going to be an Atlatl, though I have been told they are even harder to master than a Sling. I also hope to build a scale model Trebuchet this year in the spring with my students. Then count the Machete, Hatchet (aka Battle Axe), Bowie Knife with Brass Knuckles Handle, Ninja Throwing Stars, 4' PVC Pipe Blowgun (made it myself and the darts also. Very accurate and EZ to use weapon for knocking down small critters like birds and squirrels. For knocking down people, you would have to poison the darts unless of course you get one of those direct Eye Socket hits), Diving Spearguns (elastic and compressed air), and of course the Tire Thumper from my Trucking Days (aka Billy Club, Zombie Defense Weapon of last resort) and its larger cousin, the Louisville Slugger. ALL of that is probably fewer in number than most folks I know in total weapons, though the Primitive Weapons collection is more varied than anyone I know. Though few have my obsession with primitive weapons right now, I feel confident that eventually knowing and understanding how to use primitive weapons will be a game changer for many small Tribes, so I am trying to gain some proficiency to pass on to younger members of the Tribe when the Ammo runs out. Ammo for Guns is going to be increasingly expensive and difficult to acquire. You won't want to waste it on Hunting if possible. The more you can rely on primitive weapons, the better you can conserve your Ammo. I am unfortunately somewhat late in the game for learning this stuff, it would have been better if I had trained since youth, but better late than never. This being said, I am a freaking PACIFIST compared to many Alaskans. Of course, my Military friends have the BEST weapons, the Automatic Assault Rifles, the RPGS etc, but they are just part of the community here so at the moment they don't worry me.

    The main thing is not the weapons, but the TRUST you have in the other members of the Food Bank in the community, and I trust my friends. Without that trust, we are ALL lost, so I can only hope it holds up. Everyone who contributes to this Food Bank has Credits in that Bank. I will be Depositing at LEAST 2 years worth of Credits for myself based on just what I have right NOW, and I am pretty sure to at least double that before TSHTF completely. In the future, we will have to grow/fish/hunt/harvest food to keep it replenished, but I think it is not outside the realm of possibility that in the final days of the Fiat System we can consolidate 2 years worth of easily stored food to stay operational and fed while we Transition to local sustainability. I expect I'll do a good deal more fishing than I do now in the future, though really I expect to earn most of my food credits in the future by Teaching, just as I earn most of my "money" now. Regardless, I'll be damn happy if I just make it to 12/21/2012.to witness TEOTWAWKI before I walk into the Great Beyond. Go Mayans! LOL.

    Now, beyond those of us with the money and foresight to empty the shelves, there will of course be many hapless individuals who don't stock up in time, although at least up here that is fewer all the time. People up here always stock up for the winter anyhow, but with the current instability more people are beginning to sense trouble coming, and more are stocking up. Inevitably though, we will get hungry people knocking at the door, and we would have to set up a Soup Kitchen, which would run us through the collective preps faster, but it's the only moral choice here. You can't let other people starve if your belly is full and you still have some extra food around. This is why it would be imperative to get local Food Production and restocking started ASAP. For this, we have to work with our local Commercial Fishermen and our local Farmers in Palmer, as well as encourage everyone to be growing their own produce in Greenhouses. I am working on developing a Greenhouse building project and actually will be filing in the next month for a 501C3 Non-Profit to get this ball rolling in earnest here in our community. We should be able to keep electricity running pretty well since we have our own local supplies of NG, though some new ones will need to be tapped. Statewide the thing to do would be to build an NG pipeline along the route of the current Oil pipeline, because the NG on the slope is enough to keep Alaska going for decades, and still have plenty to sell via LNG Tankers. We also have plenty of local Coal, but we would have to build Coal fired plants, and that takes some lead time.

    Now, even assuming a Hyperinflationary rate of say 10%/mo its going to take at least 8 months or so with compounding for the price of all these things to double, and that would assume a price doubling of the commodities that went into them would automatically translate to a doubling price of the finished food product, but of course it does not, because a big part of the price is the labor cost, the packaging, the transportation, etc. Remember here, the Baltic Dry Index which tracks the cost of transporting bulk over water is near all time lows here still and wages are undergoing RAPID deflation. Commerce is getting thinner, which means a lot of slack in available ships, which means the Pigman Ship Owners have to cut their shipping prices to get any bizness.

    However, let us ignore for a moment the fact that retail prices of food on the shelves of Walmart are not precisely correlated to the price paid for wholesale inputs of food purchased by Pigman Speculators on the COMEX, and postulate a Doubling in the Retail price of my One Week food supply over the coming year. For a Still Employed person in the FSofA like myself, this remains Chump Change, even though I do not make Pigman Bonus money. Even at minimum wage of around $7 (I make a good deal more than that), you would only need to find about 11 hours work per WEEK to afford this food bill for yourself. Even if you do NOT find work though, the SNAP Card program will keep you floating on a food level for quite some time to come, as long as Da Goobermint keeps issuing and filling up SNAP Cards with digimoney on a monthly basis anyhow. They most certainly WILL do that, because the moment they stop doing that is the moment the FSA of the entire country EXPLODES in riots. Cheaper to provide the free food than to employ enough Gestapo to quell the riots. This is straightforward economics even the Illuminati can figure out, and its WHY they paid the price to buy off the original Free Shit Army with the Great Society program of Lyndon Johnson back in the 1960s to stop the Riots of that time. Right now I think the SNAP card program is costing around $40B, so even if the cost of that program TRIPLES over the next year to $120B with additional folks falling off the economic cliff AND prices doubling, that is barely a month's worth of Printing for Helicopter Ben. So many $Trillions are being issued out each year to Bankster Welfare Pigmen that you cannot possibly catch up here to those costs feeding the FSA. LOL.

    Of course, if you are feeding a family of 4 and you are the only Breadwinner, it is more difficult than for a Lone Ranger like myself. To feed your family it would take 44 hours of work if prices of these finished food products doubles over the course of the next year. Even if you are fortunate enough to find a Full Time job at Mickey Ds flipping burgers, all you can do here is feed your family, you can't pay rent or buy gas to get to the Mickey Ds workplace either. Fortunately however, if you are only making an annual salary of $7x40hrsx52wks=$14560, you are well under the Poverty level and probably qualify for a SNAP Card that way anyhow, though admittedly I am not completely conversant with what the actual rules for qualification are.

    Remember also, while most Clothing and Toys and Cars are produced in Factories over in China, India and Mejico these days, for the most part the Industrialized Food Apparatus remains intact here in the FSofA. We do NOT have to import food, so even if the Dollar goes into the crapper on the FOREX market relative to other currencies or Gold, Food prices don't have to change much at all here as long as you pull a Ruskie and stop shipping out what food you do produce, regardless of what price anybody will pay for it. The ONLY limiting factor on maintaining Food Production in the FSofA Industrial Food Apparatus is the availability of Oil and our ability to either Pay for it, Barter Food for it or STEAL it. In the short term here, while our ability to pay for it in ever more Worthless Dollars is in Doubt, our ability to STEAL Oil is beyond compare! We pay through the nose to keep a massive military force surrounding the Oil producing nations who will use any excuse whatsoever (even a manufactured False Flag excuse) to attempt to commandeer all the production facilities for Oil in all of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. That is an EZ one for sure in Saudi Arabia, because the Sheiks in charge of the House of Saud have kindly provided the FSofA Military with HUGE military bases from which to operate. Exactly what would the House of Saud DO here if we turned the military force on them and forced the export of their Oil to FSofA refineries? Beg for help from the Chinese? LOL.

    Bottom line here? Right now, I do not see food disappearing off the shelves of my local Walmart or Three Bears in the near future, even though the prices might rise quite rapidly, though also not past my ability to pay those prices for some time. The only caveat to that is not a hyperinflationary event rendering the dollar worthless over time in the international markets, it would be a Sudden Stop event and lockup of the financial markets happening over an exceedingly short period of time, like over a weekend. Even that can be overcome pretty easily by dropping down a Command Economy and wage and price fixing for the short term, which probably could work for at least 6 months, and possibly a good deal longer than that. Worked for a good long time in the old Soviet Union anyhow. Recall please that during the worst phase of Inflation under the Nixon Administration, Wage and Price controls were instituted, so we already have experience with a Command Economy.

    The option of dropping down wage and price controls through a Command Economy is what really stops the hyperinflationary scenario dead in the water, and with sufficient volatility, this is the option that will be taken. The PPT have already shown themselves capable of manipulating the markets as they see fit, it's a very small jump from there to institute a Command Economy. Such a thing is not possible for small economies like Argentina or Weimar back in the day, they don't have any influence over the economies of the world surrounding them. The value of the FSofA Dollar DOES have tremendous influence, because of course the dollar is the World Reserve Currency. Hyperinflation is a RELATIVE event, it's the value of your currency with respect to somebody else's. Thing here is, all the major Fiat currencies are tied to the dollar, all have similar problems, and all will devalue in lock step with the dollar, one way or the other. If they don't do this, they will be flooded with dollars seeking yield and they will have no export markets. With respect to GOLD, all these currencies will devalue, and so $10K/oz Gold is possible, but the Gold coin not going to buy you any more of anything, all you have done here is changed the numbers and dropped on a few extra zeros on the Fiat. For the most part that does not even resolve the Debt questions either, because creation of all this new money is just a creation of bigger debt numbers overall. It can shift the debt around some, but it cannot eliminate the debt. If we use $2T in funny money to pay off the Chinese with worthless Toilet Paper, first off the Chinese won't consider the debt paid and second we would then just owe the same debt to the Fed Owners, who graciously printed up this money to loan us to pay off the Chinese, but dropped the debt onto the other side of the Balance shee when they do this. Of course then, we can Default on our obligations to the Fed, and they go BK and outta biz and the Dollar disappears from the face of the Earth. Then we are back to chaos and anarchy as nobody knows who owns what or who owes what to who and how much of what it is they owe. LOL.

    At this point, it becomes a waiting game of Chicken and a hold out period to see who flinches first here. If/When the FSofA pulls a Ruskie and STOPS exporting food, I think it would be a very short time indeed before we brought the Chinese to their KNEES. They would be left with 2 choices.

    Choice 1: Forgive the Debt

    Choice 2: Attempt to Ramp Up their Military to enforce their Debt Claims and "Kneecap" us into paying it off.

    In the short term, no chance whatsoever of Choice 2 being successful other than choosing the Global Thermonuclear War Option. Even with a 4:1 Population advantage, in any kind of Conventional Warfare scenario you can imagine, the current hardware advantage held by the FSofA military makes up for the population numbers the Chinese have. They simply could not ramp up production of high tech weaponry faster than it would be destroyed once ALL of Elmendorf sorties out and Bombs China back to the Stone Age. An EMP set off by the Chinese could level the playing field, but bringing EVERYBODY back down to WWI level technology would make it extraordinarily difficult to run any kind of Global Warfare for very long for either side. (Paranthetically, I wonder what would happen to our Aircraft Carrier Groups in the event of an EMP? Would the Nuclear Reactors on the Carriers themselves cease to function (controlled as they are by microprocessors)? Dead in the Water immediately? Speculation by readers is welcome on this topic.)

    In the end, based on their History as the perennial Slaves of the World who arrived a Day Late and a Yuan Short in the Industrialization Ponzi, I think the Chinese will FOLD. They will forgive the debt rather than trying to collect from a way better armed military force. Their ONLY other choice is to go ALL IN on Global Thermonuclear War, and not even the Ruskies who had a WAY more developed Thermonuclear ICBM system chose that option as opposed to going under when they were economically defeated. Rather, the Oligarchs in charge of the old Soviet Union let their system collapse and descended into a period of Die Off and internal Corruption. I suspect the Chinese Overlords will choose the same option, as will our Bankster Plutocracy here in the FSofA. Nobody, not even MUSLIMS are ready for MAD and being the ones to initiate the Extinction of the Human Race via Global Thermonuclear War.

    Face it folks, this isn't a question of Monetary Debt anymore, the worldwide system of Debt is TOAST. EVERYBODY, including the Chinese are functionally BK. The Chinese because even though they hold an account surplus they are functionally BK because the debts are not collectible and their export market is crashing. Now the question resolves to a Military one, and for so long as it is possible to maintain the kind of military superiority the FSofA has utilizing high tech weaponry and the thermodynamic energy of Oil, the FSofA stays on top of the collapsing world economy. As things spin down here, regardless of the fact Helicopter Ben prints endless quantities of ever more worthless funny money, there will be a Flight to Safety as Big Money bets on the Biggest Bully on the Block with the Big Ass Military. This keeps the dollar operating for a few more years in all probability, albeit with a lot of geopolitical instability concurrent with that and financial Volatility to beat the band.

    How LONG can the FSofA maintain such a superiority? That depends on many factors and it is not possible to make a short term prediction on such a thing. On a medium term basis, I will project that it is no longer than a decade that the FSofA can maintain the Military it has and use it to direct Oil resource toward FSofA refineries. It could go down faster than that, dependent on such things as the willingness of the Chinese to blow off an EMP or series of them or unleash a Virus to take down the Internet as well as the willingness of distributed Muslims to go ALLAH AKBAR! and ramp up their Terrorist activities by an order of magnitude. Nor does it account for the possibility of J6P flying Private Planes into IRS buildings, nor does it account for the possibility the FSA including its many Gang Bangers operating in East LA or Harlem or the South Side of Chicago turning the Big Shitties into a local War Zone. Nor does it account for the possibility a TSUNAMI of Mexican Drug Lords and their Enforcers will POUR across the Rio Grande and Turn South Texas into another War Zone. Nor does it account for the admittedly SLIM possibility the Tea Party actually gets a BACKBONE and forces Da Fed into Receivership. More than ALL of the above mentioned scenarios for a descent into Anarchy, the most potent one of ALL of them is the Day the Fed goes DOWN.

    In this respect, the THREAT that A preponderance of "H"'s Paulson laid down on CONgress in October of 2008 is TRUE. If/when the Federal Reserve goes down, the Fiat System of Money GLOBALLY is turned to TOAST virtually overnight. You can revalue at even a Hyperinflationary rate and still maintain some kind of trade here. However, the end of the Federal Reserve is the END of the Dollar. It becomes as worthless as a Confederate Dollar at that point. Without the Dollar, the WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, all current valuations of anything also go to ZERO. Even Gold goes to Zero, measured in Dollars, because they no longer exist. At this point, Gold is only worth what you can barter it for. Unless the Illuminati have ready a monetary replacement for the Dollar, there is no avoiding a period of extreme anarchy here, with no clear window to see when that period ends, if ever. They do NOT have a monetary replacement ready, for if they did they would have ALREADY crashed the dollar. They are still struggling to create such a replacement, Cap & Trade was such an idea but sadly for the Illuminati it is not gaining much traction. They will continue to try to figure something out, and will Extend and Pretend this game as long as they can while they try to do so.

    Time is Running Out here. Sorry, you cannot run up Deficits ad infinitum in a monetary system even IF you have the biggest damn military machine in the world. Just ask the Romans. It does eventually collapse, though identifying the Day and Time of that collapse is really only something that History identifies, because it does not happen instantaneously. IMHO, this collapse truly began its unstoppable fall with the collapse of Bear Stearns. I do not think ANYTHING could have been done after that to stop it, though I am also not sure that anything could have been done either after the S&L crisis or Enron or LTCM or the failure of the SA countries and their defaults back in the 70s. The Dominoes have been falling for a LONG time here. It has all been hidden through Accounting rules changes and Stealth Printing by the Fed through the Greenspan years and the blowing of Asset Bubbles, but the system has been in collapse mode for a long time here, and this crash is way overdue now.

    Our Global Monetary system is ALREADY DEAD. It is a ZOMBIE, just we have not yet accepted the death to be true. We will inevitably descend into warfare to resolve the conflicts over Ownership and Debt. This is the way it ALWAYS plays out, it has done so repeatedly since Monetary Systems were dropped down on the Human Condition around the time of the Sumerians. The only DIFFERENCE this time? One of SCALE. This one is so much BIGGER than all the prior ones it is simply impossible to calculate the scope of the devastation that will be the outcome of this iteration of Capitalist Ponzinomics. As I see it right now, it is at least an order of magnitude larger than the devastation resulting from WWII, which in its wake took out perhaps 30M beginning with the Great Depression following thru to the end of that War period. That is a BEST CASE Scenario, which leaves only 300M dead in the wake of this collapse. As a percentage of population though, 30M in the 1930-40s max represented no more than 3% of world population at the time. If you took 3% of our CURRENT population as a Baseline, the number of Dead People, forgetting the order of magnitude prognostication, this still comes out to around 180M Dead People. Order of Magnitude difference here, call it close to 2B Dead People in a span of time roughly the same length as GD1 thru WWII, around 15 years total. Its definitely possible in mathematical terms, though this sort of crash starts to approach the crash of the population of Deer on St Matthews Island, and I sure hope we don't run that set of numbers.

    My Best Guess? This iteration of the collapse follows the Biblical Numbers of the Four Horsemen, which is ľ of the population taken out through War, Famine and Pestilence, spread over the next century. Its not the FINAL Collapse. We get "Reborn" with a Reverse Engineered Feudal Paradigm running under an Illuminati controlled Ag paradigm in the Flatlands for an indeterminate period of no more than a Century after that IMHO. Ugly time overall to be alive for a Flatlander, no doubt. Not a whole lot better for the Mountain Folks either, since it will be constant warfare to maintain independence and FREEDOM.

    A couple of centuries down the line, we run into the FINAL COLLAPSE wall, completely exhausting the Ag areas and running through the last of the fossil fuels to pump up water from subterraenian aquifers. If we end up with a population of 500M after that iteration, as Top of the Line predators on the planet we could consider ourselves LUCKY to have avoided EXTINCTION.

    Of course, none of us will be here to see it, so this is kind of abstract. Most of us only worry about what will happen in our OWN time, or at most the lifetime of our children. Good news, in that timespan, a 75% chance your progeny will survive. Longer term though, you can call it about 10% best case scenario. Or it could go down slower or faster, the timeline thing is very hard to judge. Regardless, keep your fingers crossed that 500M is the low end of the thinning of the herd, it could go a lot lower than that. As it did when Toba went Ballistic. 10,000 Human Souls left after that one. Two of them were your direct Ancestors. Remember that Number of 10,000. Its about the maximum effectively governed Tribal size.

    As long as one Tribe of 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs Survives though, we still have a CHANCE to prove ourselves as Worthy of the Sentience granted by God to our Species. Let us hope that one tribe out there does manage to make it through the Zero Point. Praise GOD, let it be MY TRIBE here on the Last Great Frontier in the Matanuska-Susitna River Valley of Alaska that makes it through. I am committed to this idea, and will do all that I can to make it so. All my preps, all my knowledge and all my plans are centered on this effort. My own life is expendable. I can walk into the Great Beyond at any time and be greatful for the life I was granted by God. I will NOT go down without a fight though when the Big Show comes to this Theatre.

    If I fail to achieve my goals, if my community fails, so be it. It has happened before to many other Tribes of course, I can list many Mohicans in the Pantheon of History I am conversant with. I can only Die Trying to not let my Tribe follow the Mohicans into the Great Beyond and Dustbin of History, and go out with GLORY defending our FREEDOM.

    Regardless of how it plays out, I will See You on the Other Side.

    RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2014, 09:43:10 PM »
And now four years later.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dec  31  2010    11,578           
Dec  12  2014    17,281                                       Thatís an increase of  49% for inquiring minds who want to know.  How are you doing?


Are we due for a crash.  I can't even pretend to know.  But if a crash is not in the cards the increase in social stratification in the lower 48 shall proceed.  The fed gives those who already have plenty of money.  Funny money by way of the banks.  It will not be discussed anywhere but here because it sounds crazy that the fed would want the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.  Is it crazy?  I'll assert that this is a plan that keeps the existing 'structure' in place the longest.  From the feds point of view It preserves the nation.  From their point of view it is your patriotic duty to wither away.  By so doing you reduce the trade deficit and the nations stability is enhanced.  Keeping the lights on in New York is far more important than a bit of misery in the hills.  The human animal can justify anything.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2014, 09:52:08 PM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline RE

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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2014, 11:29:33 PM »
And now four years later.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dec  31  2010    11,578           
Dec  12  2014    17,281   

Yah, as I mentioned, I am quite astounded they were able to prop up the market this long and keep the asset prices inflating, while the purchasing power for J6P was constantly deflating through the same period.

Reality does have a way of catching up eventually however, and the CB Ammo is pretty much spent here.

Next week will be VERY interesting on the markets.

Main questions are who files for Chapter 11 first here, and how fast they try to unwind HY.

RE
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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2014, 11:59:37 PM »
RE, Indeed it will be an interesting week.  What i wonder though is if there is an indirect or perhaps direct route for the FED to buy HY junk bonds? I admit i don't understand QE that well but did they not buy junk like CDS from the banks and then give them zero interest money to go "invest" away with?  What is stopping something similar from happening?  Pretty easy to convince everyone there 401ks need saving...

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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2014, 12:28:09 AM »
RE, Indeed it will be an interesting week.  What i wonder though is if there is an indirect or perhaps direct route for the FED to buy HY junk bonds? I admit i don't understand QE that well but did they not buy junk like CDS from the banks and then give them zero interest money to go "invest" away with?  What is stopping something similar from happening?  Pretty easy to convince everyone there 401ks need saving...

I've been pondering on this question for the last couple of days.

In principle, there is no reason Da Fed can't buy up all these bonds at par value, but the problem is that as collateral everybody knows it's not worth that.  That is why these bonds are being bid down.

The QUANTITY is so large that the Balance Sheet for Da Fed would blow up another 25% EZ in short order.  It would have an effect on the currency valuation, although exactly how much impossible to say.

Politically speaking, it's hard to see how this can be done, and there are retaliatory measures that both the Chinese and the Ruskies might take to such an action, which would be dumping Treasuries.  This blows up the FOREX market completely.  I can't see either the Chinese or Ruskies holding onto Treasuries if Da Fed does this, to do so gives them carte blanche to destroy their currencies to prop up the local production.

My best guess is by the end of next week the price will test the $50 mark, and then it will get nasty.

We'll see.

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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2014, 12:57:02 AM »
Ok then why not short the weak shale guys very hard?  Oil price recovery looks pretty unlikely soon enough term to keep those guys afloat. 

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Re: Archives of Reverse Engineering
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2014, 01:13:09 AM »
Ok then why not short the weak shale guys very hard?  Oil price recovery looks pretty unlikely soon enough term to keep those guys afloat.

SOMEBODY has to be a counterparty to the Short.  Who will buy the long here?

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