AuthorTopic: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report  (Read 49473 times)

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38030
    • View Profile
Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« on: February 18, 2015, 02:56:12 AM »
I recently got hold of my old friend ShortonOil's report produced by his Hills Group in 2013.

It is by far the most comprehensive and dense analysis of the relationship between Oil extraction costs and the thermodynamic limits to that extraction I have seen to date.    Basically, it is 47 pages of graphs and equations, with a few words sprinkled in here and there.  LOL

Here is the Abstract from his website:

Quote
Overview of report HC3 - 433
December 1, 2013
Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve

   Scattered around the globe are 48,000 oil fields that supply the world's need for petroleum. Each field has its own unique set of characteristics - and there is considerable diversity between them. Arriving at an estimate for the remaining extractable reserve is usually attempted by adding together the quantity of petroleum believed to be present in each field. It is the number of fields, and their distinctive compositions that make an accurate determination for the depletion status of the world's petroleum reserve a challenge.

When a field is discovered the quantity of petroleum that might be available for extraction is usually estimated by applying a very complex set of equations (the Buckley-Leverett equation, and its extrapolations). These equations require a number of initial values that are often based on the judgment of an experienced reservoir engineer. One result of this procedure is the phenomena known as reserve growth. As time progresses it is sometimes discovered that more crude oil can be extracted from a field than was originally predicted. Of course, the reservoir did not grow, it took 5.3 to 570 million years for it to form! Reserve growth occurs because there was an error in the original estimate.

When thousands of fields are evaluated, each with its own margin of error, the result is a range of values that can vary by 50% or more. To further complicate the issue nature rarely, if ever, makes any of her creations exactly the same. Petroleum is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons, coming from a world wide distribution of fields. Eleven million tons of it are extracted daily. Yet, each barrel is assumed to be exactly like every other barrel of the 72 million produced that day. Obviously, this is an inadequate evaluation method for a commodity that is essential for the continuation of modern society.
There are a number of methods employed by science, and engineering to help solve intractable problems. The most widely used, and dependable of these methods are those that are based on fundamental physical laws. The best method to use can often be identified by first isolating the specific characteristics of the problem. Petroleum has a very unique, and specific characteristic; it is the world's primary energy provider.

Energy is a fundamental physical property, and for more than a century its application has been investigated by science and engineering. A vast amount of literature has been dedicated to what has been discovered, and the procedures for the application of those discoveries. To determine the status of the world's petroleum reserve "Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve" analyzes the system's energy state. This method has several advantages over the quantity measurement approach.

The methodology employed by the study is termed "exergy" analysis. Exergy in the vernacular of the science of thermodynamics means: "the maximum amount of work that can be extracted from a system". The system under study is a unit of petroleum. The maximum amount of work that can be extracted from a unit of petroleum is calculated using the physical properties of the crude oil in question, and equations that have been derived from studies of the First and Second Law. These values are then used in the construction of a mathematical model that can predict the status of the world's petroleum reserve with a much smaller margin of error than can be provided by the quantity approach.

The smaller error results from a much more compact model than what is produced by the quantity approach. To be implemented, the quantity approach requires the evaluation of thousands of values; usually many of them are not precisely known. The energy approach (the ETP model,Total Production Energy) requires only three. The model is derived from the fundamental physical properties of petroleum, First and Second Law statements, and the cumulative production history of petroleum. To generate values the model requires the mass of crude removed over a period of time, the mass of water removed, and the temperature of the reservoir. Although somewhat complex from a mathematical perspective, it employs only one value of which we are not very certain; that is, petroleum's production history.
Petroleum production is a process. The process includes the extraction, processing (refining), and distribution of crude oil and its products. Each step of the process requires an input of energy to be completed. As time progresses the needed energy input increases. This occurs because of entropy production (a Second Law mandate) in the process. When the needed energy input exceeds the exergy of the petroleum, the petroleum can no longer act as an energy source. It has lost it primary value as a commodity. This is denoted as "the dead state"; the point when no additional work can be extracted from the system (a unit of petroleum).

Entropy production results in an increase in the irreversibilities of a system. Irreversibilities are a measure of the energy cost of the processes of a system. The ETP model is a summation of the irreversibilities present in the petroleum production system over a period of time. Subtracting the irreversibilities in the system at a point in time from its exergy gives the amount of energy available to be used by the non-energy goods producing sector of the economy. The model does this on a specific (per unit) bases. The unit employed is the US gallon.

To be of value a model must be predictive. To have confidence in its ability to predict future events with an acceptable level of certainty, it must also be capable of reproducing past events with a reasonable level of accuracy. This implies, of course, that the past events being reproduced are known with reasonable accuracy. There are few past events which have occurred in the history of petroleum production that can be stated with certainty. The one catagory for which we are almost 100% certain is its price history.
The price of crude oil varies daily, even by the hour, but when viewed from an energy perspective its longer term value closely follows a well defined mathematical function. That mathematical function is derived from the ETP model. The price of petroleum is driven by its cost of production, and its cost of production is controlled by the energy required to produce it. This simple relationship gives a means to map the past, and future of petroleum prices. Mapped to past pricing the relationship gives an almost perfect fit. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises future projections can be expected to perform as well as those that were applied to the past.

The ETP model is derived from a Second Law statement, which means that it is, also, a Second Law statement. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises, and because we have reason to have confidence in petroleum's price history, petroleumís cumulative production history can also be determined with a level of confidence similar to that which exists for its price. The model is reliant on one variable, petroleum's cumulative production history, and this can be verified from its price history. The strength of the ETP model depends on two factors, its bases in First and Second premises, and the confidence that can be attributed to petroluem's price history.

Optimistic estimates place the world's total petroleum reserve at 4,300 billion barrels. Of that quantity the ETP model predicts that it will be possible to extract 1,760.5 billion barrels. This constitutes 40.9% of the total reserve. This is in agreement with assessments that have been made by several noted petro-gelogists. The principal difference between the use of an energy approach, and conventional methods is that the energy approach provides for the development of a reliable predictor for petroleum's future pricing. The model shows that petroleum's ability to supply the energy needed to sustain its own production process is declining. This is experienced by the consumer as increasing price. The model demonstrates why the two events are synchronized. The ETP model adds an important, and needed element toward a deeper understanding of the depletion status of our most essential extractive commodity.

Here is the About page for Short's Hills Group

Quote
The Hills Group is an association of consulting engineers, and professional project managers. Our goal is to support our clients by providing them with the most relevant, and up to-date skill sets needed to manage their organizations. Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve provides organizational long range planners, and policy makers with the essential information they will need in today's rapidly changing environment.

Petroleum is a primary energy source, and provides the majority of the world's transportation fuel. It is the lowest cost, and most widely available resource to power transportation machinery. Its disposition has a wide ranging effect on all day to day economic activity. A comprehensive understanding of this vital resource is now essential for the effective management of any organization. Our report, Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve will provide your management team with this critical information!

You can view a few of the sample graphs on this PAGE.

I am working on scheduling a Podcast with Short to explain the math here for the layman.  Open invitation to Professor Moriarty to face down Short in this podcast. I doubt he will show, Short would carve him up like Thanksgiving Turkey :icon_mrgreen:

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Palloy

  • Sous Chef
  • ****
  • Posts: 3754
    • View Profile
    • https://palloy.wordpress.com
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 04:24:46 PM »
It's a pity for us that the full report costs $39, but I suppose he's got to make a living. I look forward to the podcast.

My first question, based on lack of the full report, is whether the theory stands up in the real world, when central banks can create the money needed to buy the refined products that are essential to keep society running, even when the energy cost says there is nothing "economically useful" that can be done with it. Liquid fuels needed to keep the trains, coal mining, natural gas extraction and electricity/internet network maintenance running are more than just "economically useful". 

I note that: "Graph# 5 shows that this hypothesis is well supported by the data set provided by the EIA. The years 1980 - 1985 are considered anomalous and are excluded. Justification for this exclusion is discussed in the report."  These were years of decreasing/flat world oil production due to high price following the second Oil Shock (1979).  It wasn't until 1993 that 1979 production was surpassed. The world economy won't recover from another shock like that.
The State is a body of armed men

Offline MKing

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 3354
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2015, 04:52:10 PM »
The years 1980 - 1985 are considered anomalous and are excluded. Justification for this exclusion is discussed in the report."  These were years of decreasing/flat world oil production due to high price following the second Oil Shock (1979).  It wasn't until 1993 that 1979 production was surpassed. The world economy won't recover from another shock like that.

Scientists frown on excluding data because it doesn't support your position. Interesting that these folks find this acceptable, as compared to the world of science I am familiar with. Doing such a thing would be terminable offense, in that world.

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38030
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2015, 05:00:54 PM »
It's a pity for us that the full report costs $39, but I suppose he's got to make a living. I look forward to the podcast.

My first question, based on lack of the full report, is whether the theory stands up in the real world, when central banks can create the money needed to buy the refined products that are essential to keep society running, even when the energy cost says there is nothing "economically useful" that can be done with it. Liquid fuels needed to keep the trains, coal mining, natural gas extraction and electricity/internet network maintenance running are more than just "economically useful". 

I note that: "Graph# 5 shows that this hypothesis is well supported by the data set provided by the EIA. The years 1980 - 1985 are considered anomalous and are excluded. Justification for this exclusion is discussed in the report."  These were years of decreasing/flat world oil production due to high price following the second Oil Shock (1979).  It wasn't until 1993 that 1979 production was surpassed. The world economy won't recover from another shock like that.

As with any model, it's value is in how accurate it is as a predictor for future Oil Production and Pricing.  It's working well so far, but it's most important predictions look outward to 2020 or so, with the general conclusion that energy from Oil will be a vanishingly small part of the economy after that.  I'm not sure that Short takes into account what might be done with credit distortions by the Central Banks though.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38030
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2015, 05:46:46 PM »
A decent amount of the Hills Report is available online for free.  Here is the Pricing Analysis from the 4th Update.

The Energy Factor, Part IV

The Price of Oil

 

The price of petroleum is controlled by two factors:
 
 1) The cost of production.
 2) The $ amount that the end consumer (the NEGs) can afford to pay for it.
 
 What the end consumer pays must be sufficient to cover the cost of production. All production cost must be borne by the end consumer, who includes the end buyer, and the societal cost required to produce petroleum, and its products.
 
 The Petroleum Price Curve, shown below, reflects the two factors that have, and will continue to control petroleum prices. The ETP derived Cost Curve is constructed from the ETP model, and has mapped the price of petroleum since 1960 with a correlation coefficient of 0.965. It is the most accurate pricing model that has ever been developed, (see report)*.
 
 The Maximum Consumer Price curve was also developed from the ETP model. It represents the maximum price that the end consumer can pay for petroleum. It is based on the observation that the price of a unit of petroleum can not exceed the value of the economic activity that the energy it supplies to the end consumer can generate.
A more complete explanation of how the Maximum Consumer Price curve was formulated is show in chart# 160 below:

depletion2022003.jpg

The two Maximum affordable price curves labeled 71% (black), and 62% (light blue) are skewed logistic curves. There is no explicit mathematical equation to describe them. They are derived numerically, and the dots represent values for specific years. The 71% curve is the maximum theoretical energy that can be extracted from a unit of 37.5° API crude. Its value is derived from the combustion equations of hydrocarbons. The 62% curve is the average energy extracted from the same hydrocarbon by the end user. It passes through the  ETP derived price curve at the inflection point of the ETP curve in year 2012. 2012 was the energy half way point for petroleum production. It was the year when it required one half of the energy content of petroleum to produce the petroleum, and its products.
The individual points are generated from the equation:
 
   $/barrel = (Energy delivered - ETP value/ BTU/$) * 42.
 
 Energy delivered = 140,000 BTU/gal *0.62 (140,000 BTU/gal - the energy content of 37.5° API crude)
 ETP value is derived from the ETP function
 BTU/$ is taken from the BTU/$ graph - Graph# 12
 

The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel. At this point petroleum will no longer be acting as a significant energy source for the economy. Its only function will be as an energy carrier for other sources. Production will continue as long as producers can realize the lifting costs at existing fields. E&D expenditures, and field maintenance costs will have been curtailed. All production from that point forward will be from legacy fields only. The economic impact that will result from the energy lost to the general economy is beyond the scope of this report.

The energy content of a unit of petroleum is fixed by its molecular structure. The energy to produce a unit of petroleum, and its products increases with time as a result of the entropy production of the PPS (Petroleum Production System). The energy remaining for use by the general economy declines, and the economic activity that the petroleum can power also declines. Chart# 161 below shows the historical, and projected economic activity in 2014 dollars that a barrel of petroleum (37.5° API crude) has, and will be able to power.

depletion2022001.jpg

Historically, petroleum has been a primary beneficiary to the economy. The economic activity that it powered was greater than the cost of the petroleum. Its historical effect can be seen in Graph# 25 (World GDP vs Cumulative Production). That benefit is now declining, and by the early 2020's an increased use of petroleum will no longer add to GDP. It will become more cost effective for society to begin limiting its use of petroleum as the use of petroleum transitions from a GDP enhancer to a GDP reducer.

You will note here the price crash predicted by the model is ongoing here.  The Price Curve is curtailed at $11.76/bbl in 2020.  So far, the model is predicting quite well.

RE

Save As Many As You Can

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38030
    • View Profile
Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report: Update V
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2015, 10:01:01 PM »
Latest update from ShortonOil.

RE

The Energy Factor, Part V
 
 The Energy Half Way Point
Petroleum has been extracted in significant quantity commercially since 1860. Every barrel has "on average" required more energy to extract than the barrel that came before it. This is quarantined to have happened by the Second Law. The increasing production energy requirement resulted in deeper wells, higher water cut, and changing viscosity. Over time it has taken more, and more energy to extract petroleum.
 
 The energy content (exergy) of a barrel of oil is fixed by its molecular structure. This is demonstrated by Graph# 20, the Exergy vs API graph. EIA data tells us that the viscosity of the average barrel over the last decade has been an API of 35.7°. This results in an energy content (exergy) of 140,000 BTU/gallon, or 5.88 million BTU/barrel.
 
 The ETP Model produces a result that gives the Total Production Energy used for producing a unit of oil. That is the total energy to extract, processes, and distribute one unit. As time progresses that number must increase, and at some point it will require one half of the energy content of the oil to extract it, and produce its products. The ETP Model indicates that the half way point (70,000 BTU/gal) was reached in 2012.
Substantiating the Model's determination is accomplished by evaluating petroleum usage in the US for 2012.
 
 To extract petroleum requires an input of goods, and services. To produce those goods, and services requires energy. That energy must be extracted from, and subtracted from the petroleum energy stream as long as petroleum is used as an energy source. This conversion of energy into work (goods and services) always results in loses. This is discussed in the Energy Factor, Part I. The ETP Model calculates this value through numerical analysis which produces a conversion efficiency of 20.45 %. This is equivalent to a source temperature of 214 °F, and a sink temperature at STP of 77 °F.This is very close to the thermal operating efficiency of an internal combustion engine; they constitutes 83% of petroleum usage.
 
 US data for 2012: 
                    
                           
                          
GDP; $16.1632 trillion *1
 The price of WTI; $94.05/ barrel
 Petroleum consumption; 18,490,213.6 barrels/day = 6.7489 Gb/ year *2
 % energy consumption from petroleum, EIA; 35.1% *3
 Total US crude cost = $634.73 billion (consumption x price)
Method 1 
Converting $634.73 billion of crude consumed into goods and services required: $634.73/0.2045 = $3.104 trillion.
 35.1% x GDP = $5.6733 trillion
 Percent of total petroleum dollars used to extract, process, and distribute it:
 $3.104 trillion/ $5.673 trillion = 54.7%

Method 2 
An alternative evalution method uses the thermal conversion efficiency (0.2045), and the BTU/$ conversion from Graph# 12: BTU/$.
Total US BTU from petroleum = 6.7489 Gb/ year x 5.88 million BTU/barrel
= 3.9684 x 10^16 BTU
Using the 2012 BTU/$ conversion of 6380 BTU/$:
Total US BTU/ 6380 = $6.220 x 10^12: the $ value of petroleum to the economy
Total cost of goods and services to produce petroleum:
$634.74 x 10^9/ 0.2045 = $3.1039 x 10^12
Percent of total petroleum dollars used to extract, process, and distribute it:
Total goods and services/ US $ value of petroleum
 = $3.1039 x 10^12/$6.220 x 10^12
 = 0.4990 = 49.90%
Method 2 gives a result that is closer to the ETP Model's result than Method 1. This probably is the result of the EIA energy consumption from petroleum estimate of 35.1%.
The energy half way point is a critical junction for petroleum production. From that point forward production can no longer be increased utilizing only its own energy content. Increased production beyond that point has to be powered by energy delivered from a secondary source. Thus, any increase in production beyond the half way point would become an energy sink. Its economic value would be limited to acting as a feedstock material for the production of other products, and It would have no capacity to power the NEGs (non energy goods sector) of the economy. The maximum production point where petroleum could act as an energy source was reached when that capacity had fallen to where one barrel had the capacity to produce two. That occurred in 2012. Production above the 2012 time frame must have a negative overall impact on the economy. Whereas, production increases before 2012 added to overall economic activity, production increases after 2012 reduce it. That reduction is now equal to $219/ barrel when production is above the 2012 level.
A more detailed analysis for the derivation of ETP Model can be found here: Order Report
Save As Many As You Can

Offline MKing

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 3354
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2015, 06:22:34 AM »
The price of petroleum is controlled by two factors:
 1) The cost of production.


This should be rewritten to say "The marginal cost of production".

And oh how I wish any economic analysis or assumptions I do can just exclude the data and information that doesn't conform with my plan, equation or conclusions. Life would suddenly just be so much...easier....
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38030
    • View Profile
WTI: How LOW can it GO?
« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2015, 08:07:40 AM »
Now at the $41 Handle!

ShortonOil's ETP analysis is looking more accurate by the day!

Wait till they run out of Storage Facilities!  They'll be paying YOU to drive your car and burn it up!

Next Stop: $30s Handle.  That will make a few Fracker balance sheets a little messed up. LOL

RE

WTI Nears $41 Handle After Saudi Comments

Tyler Durden's picture





 

WTI is now down over $2 from the massive API inventory build last nihgt and is testing down to a $41 handle. The latest leg is not halped by Saudi officials' comments that it "will not interfere with the oil market," and that "the oil market will fix itself," as they continue the line taken at the last OPEC meeting and pressure US Shale even further.

 

  • *SAUDI ARABIA WON'T SOON INTERFERE IN OIL MARKET: PRINCE TURKI
  • *OIL MARKET WILL FIX ITSELF: SAUDI ARABIA'S PRINCE TURKI
  • *SAUDIS WILL CONTINUE LINE TAKEN AT OPEC MEETING: PRINCE TURKI

 

Save As Many As You Can

Offline MKing

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 3354
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2015, 08:14:43 AM »
Thank God for the Saudi's. If they weren't around to keep everyone honest, no one would be.

The killer for oil companies (as opposed to the service companies that have already begun to react in a completely predictable way) is this little graphic.



Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline agelbert

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 11820
    • View Profile
    • Renewable Rervolution
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2015, 11:56:56 AM »
The floor between WTI and Brent crude is $48. I called it a month ago. It's time for ZH to get their heads out of their predatory capitalist asses and smell the Big Oil manipulation coffee.  :evil4: That pack of arrogant fucking morons only need to study tanker stocks to do the math here. It seems I'm the only one that has figured that out.

I'm no brainiac but I am very good at spotting when correlation REALLY IS causation. Unlike the ZH ASSHOLES, I do not have an agenda based on greed.

MKing, ANYTHING you say about the price of fossil fuels is suspect. You ARE NOT an objective party in this discussion, to put it mildly. Have a nice day.  :icon_sunny:
« Last Edit: March 18, 2015, 12:00:05 PM by agelbert »
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

Offline Joseph McCafferty

  • Bussing Staff
  • **
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2015, 02:01:00 PM »
One thing I've been wanting to post on zerohedge's twitter is, "A cynic knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing." All their output seems to be aimed at 'traders' or 'investors' AKA sharks. What they don't express is what these prices and trends do to everyday people.

Offline MKing

  • Contrarian
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 3354
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2015, 07:07:24 PM »
MKing, ANYTHING you say about the price of fossil fuels is suspect.

Really? Because I am probably the only person you can actually talk to that is paid to be above reproach, transparent and unsuspect as someone can be. Comes with the job as a matter of fact.

Quote from: agelbert
You ARE NOT an objective party in this discussion, to put it mildly. Have a nice day.  :icon_sunny:

Around here, I am the only objective party in this discussion, and better yet one of the few who is putting my money where my mouth is. I thought that was clear by now? Anyway, you have a nice day as well Anthony.  :emthup:


Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline edpell

  • Waitstaff
  • ***
  • Posts: 323
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2015, 03:09:44 PM »
Expect $20 per barrel by June 1st. Expect 1 million barrels per day shutdown in the U.S. by June 1st. All is well with the world at least until??? Until what???

Offline Palloy

  • Sous Chef
  • ****
  • Posts: 3754
    • View Profile
    • https://palloy.wordpress.com
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2015, 05:21:48 PM »
That's an additional $20 million per day on oil imports, assuming consumption remains constant, or $7.3 billion per year.
Since December 2003, when the $22 - 28 /b agreement between OECD and OPEC failed, due to rapidly approaching Peak Crude Oil, the extra price of imports has cost US $7.2 trillion dollars.  That's why the economy has been trying to accelerate away from the traffic lights with the handbrake on.

You can re-define "Oil" to be Crude Oil + tight oil + deep sea oil + tar sands + condensate from gas wells + NGPLs + ethanol + biodiesel, but it doesn't alter the overall principle.

Australia still publishes Crude and Condensate separately, (Condensate being 35.7% of C+C, Jan 2015) but US doesn't, so its impossible to see Peak US Crude Oil on its decline path - how convenient.
The State is a body of armed men

Offline alan2102

  • Contrarian
  • Waitstaff
  • *
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2015, 05:11:28 AM »
<div id=\"e1\" class=\"cc121\">Historically, petroleum has been a primary beneficiary to the economy. The economic activity that it powered was greater than the cost of the petroleum. Its historical effect can be seen in <a href=\"http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_012.htm\">Graph# 25[/url] (World GDP vs Cumulative Production). That benefit is now declining, and by the early 2020's an increased use of petroleum will no longer add to GDP. It will become more cost effective for society to begin limiting its use of petroleum as the use of petroleum transitions from a GDP enhancer to a GDP reducer.</div>[/html]
That's what the IMF report is saying, approximately. Maybe the IMF read the Hills report.

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,4940.0.html

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
1 Replies
2795 Views
Last post November 21, 2013, 05:43:37 AM
by Eddie
0 Replies
911 Views
Last post November 12, 2014, 01:14:06 AM
by Guest
0 Replies
699 Views
Last post August 04, 2016, 03:47:44 AM
by Guest