AuthorTopic: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!  (Read 15633 times)

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 41928
    • View Profile
🛢️ Small Oil Firm Reports Huge Alaska Oil Discovery
« Reply #60 on: April 12, 2020, 01:54:54 AM »
Now, all we gotta do is cut off immigration (not hard since the planes aren't flying), restart the Refinery in Fairbanks and create our own Petrocurrency based on Oil and Coal reserves.  With the world's foremost fisherie in Prince William Sound, numerous top notch Organic Farms in Palmer and a total population for the state of 750K (that's about half the population of Dallas in a state more than 2X the size of all of TX), we'll be self-sufficient in no time!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Small-Oil-Firm-Reports-Huge-Alaska-Oil-Discovery.html

Small Oil Firm Reports Huge Alaska Oil Discovery
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 09, 2020, 4:00 PM CDT


UK-based oil exploration firm Pantheon Resources believes it has a huge 1.8-billion-barrel oil discovery in Alaska after evaluating an old exploration well with modern technology, the company’s top executives told the Alaska Journal of Commerce.

Despite the low oil prices, Pantheon Resources believes that the discovery could become commercial and viable at oil prices around $30 per barrel, Jay Cheatham, chief executive at Pantheon Resources, told the Alaska Journal of Commerce in an interview.

The discovery is south of Prudhoe Bay and along the Dalton Highway and Trans-Alaska Pipeline System corridor. The proximity to Dalton Highway is very advantageous for the company to develop the resource, according to Cheatham.

The discovery, named Talitha, could be able to produce as much as 500 million barrels of oil, while peak oil production could be almost 90,000 barrels per day (bpd), Cheatham said.

The company has another prospect, Greater Alkaid, for which it believes peak production could be as high as 30,000 bpd, with recoverable oil resources at 76 million barrels.   

The location and the proximity to the highway could allow Pantheon Resources to work all year round and save money for infrastructure such as roads to the oil discovery, the manager said

Pantheon Resources holds majority stakes in prospects in East Texas and the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) with a combined P50 Technically Recoverable Resource estimated to exceed 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the company says on its website. 

An Independent Experts Report from January 2020 on Pantheon Resources’ 100-percent owned Greater Alkaid found a Contingent Recoverable Resource of 76.5 million barrels of oil.

While Pantheon Resources believes it can make its Alaska resources viable at $30 oil, Alaska, the U.S. state most dependent on taxes and other income from the oil and gas industry, could be in for a severe budgetary headache after the oil price crash. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Save As Many As You Can

Offline K-Dog

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 3988
    • View Profile
    • K-Dog
Re: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
« Reply #61 on: April 12, 2020, 05:21:54 AM »
Small Oil Firm Reports Huge Alaska Oil Discovery

The timing is right to attract some panic money from investors perhaps?  The oil could be there but as the old saying goes measure twice cut once.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 41928
    • View Profile
Forget Peak Oil Demand, Supply Crisis Could be Hitting First
« Reply #62 on: October 14, 2020, 03:01:22 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/forget-peak-oil-demand-supply-111341407.html

Forget Peak Oil Demand, Supply Crisis Could be Hitting First


,FX Empire•October 13, 2020
Forget Peak Oil Demand, Supply Crisis Could be Hitting First
In today’s IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook 2020 report, the OECD energy watchdog states that it doesn’t see a peak oil demand before 2040, only a possible oil demand flattening. The energy agency repeats that oil demand is effected by COVID, but all scenarios show that oil demand has not peaked yet. The energy agency contradicts here the views currently being proponed by BP and others that oil demand has peaked already. The report bluntly states that after recovering from the “exceptional ferocity” of the COVID-19 crisis, world oil demand will rise from 97.9 million bpd in 2019 to 104.1 million bpd in 2040.

Even that the agency acknowledges that demand has been hit and is lagging behind 2019 levels, overall demand will increase, only the increase will be slightly slower than expected. The Paris-based agency, financed by the OECD governments, and lately known as a main proponent of energy transition and renewables, expects that a slower increase of oil demand the coming years will be caused by clean transport policies and surging renewable energy. At the same time the IEA also reiterates that demand for petrochemicals and global growth of long-distance transport will be leading to a net increase of oil demand until 2040.

It needs to be reiterated that several major factors are very unsure that could have a major impact on global oil demand growth. The current assessments are all taking into account a wide range of proposed and/or signed energy transition and net-zero emission government policies.

These will have an impact if fully implemented by all. Looking at the current situation, especially due to COVID-related economic issues, renewable and emission reduction policies could however become sidelined, delayed or put on ice. The need for a revamp of the global economies is clear, but choices will be made by respective constituencies without full focus on climate change and renewables.

At the same time, the major future driver for oil and gas demand will be policies implemented by emerging markets. China, India and Middle Eastern countries will become much more important than is currently taken into account in several scenarios. A post-COVID economic planning will have to make choices on where to invest and how to progress. Renewables and climate-related investments could be too expensive to materialize.

Even within the OECD countries itself, high-flying plans such as the EU Green Deal or Net-Zero policies of major industries will have to tackle the call for a stable economic recovery from citizens (voters). The IEA, supported by a report of OPEC several days ago, expects that due to a post-Corona global economic rebound oil demand will be pushed back soon to pre-crisis levels of close to 100 million bpd.

The media will be focusing today largely on the peak oil demand issues, as this is being pushed forward. The discussion however seems to forget that global oil demand is very flexible, and expected to recover quickly, but oil supply is heading towards a crisis. If demand for oil is recovering, the market will be soon facing supply issues.

The latter not due to geopolitical risks, chokepoint closures or a Greek-Turkish war, but simply by a lack of new oil projects being started and hitting the market to counter demand recovery and the production decline of existing production fields. Without more attention for hard-needed investments influx in upstream projects worldwide, markets could be facing a slow but steady decline in supply.

The ongoing onslaught on IOCs and independents by activist shareholders and institutional investors to head for a Net-Zero emission production or even leaving oil and gas totally is resulting in a hidden disaster for the global economy. Demand is going to recover, levels will be reaching at least 5-10 million bpd above 2019 levels by 2030, possibly hitting 115-120 million bpd by 2040. Between 2020-2030 latter extra volumes needed is twice the Saudi Al Ghawar field production.

Where most analysis in the media really goes wrong is that it only looks at demand increase. The main issue at present to deal with is to assess the normal decline of producing fields globally. If taking a very conservative approach of 7% decline per year, we are looking at extra production to be found of 6-7 million bpd to counter yearly decline overall. Putting this in place for the period 2020-2025 we are talking about new production to come onstream of 25-30 million bpd at least.

Without investing in existing and future production, oil storage volumes worldwide will crash, showing empty barrels or tanks very soon. By repeating peak oil demand scenarios and reports, the media and financial analysts are creating a lack of urgency that will bite the hands it feeds. Maybe the IEA assessments will need to some new rational analysis than we have seen before.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar .

This article was originally posted on FX Empire
Save As Many As You Can

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 41928
    • View Profile
🛢️ Oil Investments Are Drying Up As Crude Demand Falters[
« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2020, 12:33:02 AM »
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Investments-Are-Drying-Up-As-Crude-Demand-Falters.html

Oil Investments Are Drying Up As Crude Demand Falters
By Irina Slav - Oct 29, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT


Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World Energy Investment report, first released in late spring. At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently, wrong.

Demand for oil has certainly improved in some parts of the world, notably in Asia, where governments have been more successful in containing the spread of the coronavirus than their counterparts in Europe and North and South America. But even in China—the world’s oil demand recovery driver—the rebound is slowing down. After all, even though its domestic demand may be improving, if regional and global demand is stalling, this will have a negative effect on China as well.

According to the IEA, the impact that the pandemic is having on investments in the oil industry will continue to be felt for years to come. This is hardly surprising: the agency noted a 45-percent cut in investments by U.S. shale oil companies this year, combined with a 50-percent jump in financing costs. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. may be rising, suggesting the beginning of a recovery, but the total was still down 564 rigs on the year as of last week, so that recovery will take a while.

Related: Washington Greenlights Conoco Oil Project In Alaska
Meanwhile, fuel stock updates from the Energy Information Administration are offering mixed signals: last week, for instance, saw a major drawdown in distillate fuel stocks, which should be good news suggesting demand for distillates is improving. The problem is that it is likely that this improvement is a temporary occurrence rather than a trend. Air travel is still greatly constrained, and the chances of any change in the status quo are slim.

Uncertainty: this is the keyword for not just the oil industry but for all others affected by the pandemic to such a grave extent as to force changes in business models. Europe’s Big Oil majors are doing just that with their push into renewables and plan to greatly reduce the contribution of their core business to overall earnings. U.S. majors are sticking with oil, and they may well have a good reason to do it.

There has been a lot of government and activist talk about a green recovery from the pandemic crisis. But the pandemic is still raging, and not only is it not abating, but it is gathering strength. This would mean more money needed for stimulus measures. This, in turn, would mean less money to spend on renewables, because despite the celebrated cost declines in solar and wind, financial and regulatory support from governments remains essential for their increased deployment.

Related: Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Oil Bets

The future remains marred in uncertainty that extends to the possibility of a rebound in oil investments. According to some, such as BP, we are already past peak oil demand, so that would mean less investment in oil production growth globally. Others, such as OPEC producers, hope things will sooner or later return to normal, and the world’s appetite for more oil will continue to grow for at least a few more years before plateauing. And yet even OPEC is preparing for a worst-case scenario.

The extended cartel OPEC+ is considering a delay in the next relaxation of oil production cuts, from January 2021 to April, in response to the latest trends in Covid-19 infections. One thing seems relatively clear, however. The longer the surge in new infections continues, the longer it would take the industry to return on the path of recovery and growth.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 12:35:53 AM by RE »
Save As Many As You Can

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
Record Oil Glut!

Started by RE « 1 2 ... 5 6 » Energy

75 Replies
34742 Views
Last post March 13, 2014, 06:18:27 AM
by Surly1
10 Replies
2881 Views
Last post September 19, 2015, 06:04:51 AM
by MKing
10 Replies
2589 Views
Last post April 22, 2016, 05:27:56 PM
by MKing