AuthorTopic: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report  (Read 73627 times)

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🛢️ Rig Count In Cowboy State Falls To Zero
« Reply #270 on: August 07, 2020, 01:33:25 AM »
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rig-Count-In-Cowboy-State-Falls-To-Zero.html

Rig Count In Cowboy State Falls To Zero
By Irina Slav - Aug 06, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT


The last active drilling rig in Wyoming was idled yesterday, leaving the state with no operating rigs for only the second time in its oil and gas history.

The AP reports that the gas rig was located near the border with Colorado and quotes the executive director of the state’s Petroleum Association, Pete Obermueller, as saying, “It is historic, but not in a great way. There are so many jobs attached to these rigs, and now, people are painfully learning so much revenue is attached too. It’s mind boggling and hard to capture the impact.”

A year ago, there were 37 active drilling rigs in the Cowboy State, which is one of the oldest legacy oil-producing regions, if not one of the largest. For the whole of 2019, companies operating in Wyoming pumped 102.1 million barrels of crude, which was substantially higher than the 2018 output, which stood at 87.9 million barrels.

Now, with the crisis bringing drilling to zero, the state has plans to stimulate the industry with new tax incentives. The Wyoming legislature’s Joint Minerals, Business and Economic Development Committee has sponsored a bill proposing tax relief for oil and gas companies in a bid to stimulate an increase in production.

The bill calls for a tax exemption once the price of West Texas Intermediate reaches $45 per barrel for light sweet crude and $38 per barrel for sour grades produced in the state.

The incentive, if approved, would only be in effect for 12 months after the benchmark oil price reaches the desired level, but according to the bill’s sponsors, it could go a long way towards providing the local oil and gas industry with the motivation to bring back the drilling rigs.

“We’re recognizing that if [the] price is too low, companies are not going to come back anyway. So, we’re gonna set it at maybe a break-even to get a company over the hump to choose Wyoming over North Dakota, to choose Wyoming over New Mexico,” the Petroleum Association’s Obermueller said at the time in comments on the news.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/investing/exxon-stock-dow-oil/index.html

Exxon was the world's largest company in 2013. Now it's being kicked out of the Dow

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

Updated 3:01 PM ET, Tue August 25, 2020

Exxon gas station at night in Dallas, Texas, United States, April 27, 2016.

New York (CNN Business)For decades, ExxonMobil was an unstoppable machine. It made gobs of money, spent that cash wisely and rewarded shareholders lavishly.
As recently as 2013, Exxon (XOM) was the the most valuable company on the planet. Its market value topped out at $446 billion in mid-2014, the last time crude prices traded above $100 a barrel.
But Exxon is now a shell of its former self.
A series of strategic decisions backfired badly, from betting on natural gas at the top of the market to being late to America's shale boom.

Exxon is now losing money for the first time in decades. Its long track record of raising the dividend is in doubt. Exxon is the poster child for the fossil fuels industry at a time of deep concern about the climate crisis. And the company's market value has crumbled by a staggering $267 billion from the peak.
Exxon's exit means there's just one oil company left in the Dow
Exxon's exit means there's just one oil company left in the Dow
The latest humiliation for Exxon: It's being kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the exclusive index it's been a part of for 92 years. Fittingly, given the swings in fortune in the modern economy and stock market, Exxon is being replaced by a technology company: Salesforce (CRM). And Chevron (CVX), a more successful company of late than Exxon, is now the Dow's sole oil company.
"It's pretty symbolic," said Stewart Glickman, energy analyst at CFRA Research. "It's a recognition that the energy sector doesn't have anywhere near the same clout it used to."
The energy sector comprised 16% of the S&P 500 in 2008, when oil prices spiked above $140 a barrel, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Today, the energy industry makes up a mere 2.5% of the S&P 500.
That shift reflects the transformation of the American economy in favor of technology -- and the momentum in the market in that direction, too. It's no secret that many tech companies, including Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Zoom (ZM) are thriving during the pandemic.
By contrast, oil companies have been crushed by the crash in prices, which briefly went negative for the first time ever, and collapse in demand.
Dividend doubts at Exxon
But the shakeup in the Dow isn't just about the troubles of the energy industry broadly. It's about the turmoil at Exxon specifically.
When US stocks bottomed out on March 23, Exxon was trading at the weakest level in nearly 18 years. Although Exxon has since rebounded along with the broader market, it remains down more than 40% this year. By contrast, Chevron is only down 28%.
That reflects more confidence in Chevron's ability to make money in this turbulent period and the safety of that company's coveted dividend.
It's a bizarre time for Trump to open Alaska's Arctic refuge up to oil drilling
It's a bizarre time for Trump to open Alaska's Arctic refuge up to oil drilling
"Chevron has been more conservative with its balance sheet. It has kept it very clean," said Jason Gammel, an energy analyst at Jefferies.
Exxon has proudly raised its dividend 37 consecutive years, making the company a member of the dividend aristocrat group. But analysts said that streak is now in jeopardy.
Last year, Exxon relied on asset sales and borrowing to cover 64% of its dividend payout, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. That's well above the company's 10-year average of 30%.
"Historically, Exxon was arguably the most efficient company in the oil and gas space. The dividend, which was very manageable for them when cash flows were stronger, has become more of a burden," said CFRA's Glickman.
Late to shale, bad bet on gas
The seeds for these struggles were laid years ago.
In 2009, Exxon plunked down $41 billion to buy natural gas giant XTO Energy. That deal proved to be terribly timed because natural gas prices plummeted and never recovered.
Exxon -- and Chevron to a lesser extent -- initially failed to capitalize on the epic oil boom taking place in their own backyard. In hindsight, Exxon surely wishes it bought up land in the Permian Basin of West Texas rather than spend heavily on expensive deep water drilling projects in Russia and in the oil sands of Canada -- neither of which panned out.
How to make money in the pandemic: Invest in KitKats and Big Macs
How to make money in the pandemic: Invest in KitKats and Big Macs
"Exxon and Chevron were late to the game," said Glickman.
Those blunders forced Exxon to play catch-up. At a time when Wall Street is demanding discipline from oil companies, Exxon is spending heavily to ramp up its production in the Permian and develop offshore projects overseas.
"The market has not liked that strategy given that most peers have been trying to return more cash to shareholders," said Gammel.
The good news is that some of those overseas bets are finally paying off.
Exxon's investments in Guyana could prove to be lucrative as that region is expected to turn into a major source of growth for the company down the line. Exxon estimates there are more than 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil barrels in Guyana. But it will take time and money to turn those barrels into revenue.
"The problem for Exxon is investors are not valuing energy companies on the basis of 2023 results. It's what can you do for us in 2021," said Glickman.
Exxon's Tesla problem
Yet even if Guyana turns out to be a win for Exxon, the company faces an uphill battle because of the climate crisis.
Exxon is the best-known company in the fossil fuels industry at a time when investors would prefer to bet on solar, wind and Tesla (TSLA).
Although European oil companies including BP (BP) and Total (TOT) have aggressively invested on renewable energy and set bold emissions targets, Exxon's efforts have been far more muted.

"It's a PR problem for energy companies," said Ben Cook, portfolio manager at Hennessey BP Energy Fund. "You can either part of the solution or be seen as part of the problem."
Of course, even the most bearish analysts aren't predicting oil demand will vanish overnight. But a gradual shift away from crude means that only the best-run oil companies will thrive. And too often over the past decade, that has not been Exxon.
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🛢️ Second U.S. shale boom's legacy: Overpriced deals, unwanted assets
« Reply #272 on: August 31, 2020, 07:23:59 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shale-investments/second-us-shale-booms-legacy-overpriced-deals-unwanted-assets-idUSKBN25R1GG

August 31, 2020 / 3:12 AM / Updated 3 hours ago
Second U.S. shale boom's legacy: Overpriced deals, unwanted assets
Jessica Resnick-Ault, Dmitry Zhdannikov, David Gaffen


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil and gas companies plunged over $156 billion into corporate takeovers and land deals during the second U.S. shale boom, in a massive bet that good times would continue and crude prices would rise. Many of those deals have become financial albatrosses.
FILE PHOTO: A flare burns excess natural gas in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 23, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

The prospect for relief is limited: the industry is still working through the shock of a historic collapse in fuel demand in such a short period of time, prompted by the sudden impact of the coronavirus on global mobility. Oil companies are cutting their budgets to preserve cash and survive - not to spend it on buying more companies.

That leaves few companies with the money or the appetite to buy distressed assets. Another 150 North American oil and gas producers could face bankruptcy by the end of 2022, according to Rystad Energy, if crude prices remain near current levels.

The shale revolution turned the United States into the world’s largest crude producer, pumping out more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) at its peak. The industry beat forecasts again and again for production growth, but rarely for financial returns.

Still, the promise of future returns lured investors, including a wave of acquisitions that happened after the first boom when prices pulled back sharply from 2014 to 2016.

Now, many of the 2016 to 2019 shale deals are financially unworkable due to low oil prices, according to six people familiar with the transactions.

Of the 50 largest acreage purchases or M&A transactions between 2016 and 2019, at least 31 add value only if global benchmark Brent crude LOCc1 is above $50 a barrel, or $5 higher than current levels, according to energy research firm Wood MacKenzie.

Production has fallen by more than 1 million bpd, and there is little to encourage a sustained rise in prices. Fuel storage is brimming worldwide, and fuel demand has been slow to recover even as global lockdowns ease.

Investors are wary of energy shares, as the S&P 500 Energy sector .SPNY is down 40% this year even as the U.S. stock market touched new highs this month.

Oil companies such as BP Plc (BP.L), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) made highly publicized purchases that have lost substantial value. BP, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and others have cut the assumed value of those assets, conceding big wagers on shale will not pay off.

In May 2019, Occidental bought Anadarko Petroleum for $38 billion, taking on debt to outbid oil major Chevron Corp (CVX.N) in a big bet on bigger growth in the largest U.S. oil patch in Permian Basin. The combined company was worth about $80 billion when the deal was announced, but is now worth just $12.1 billion.

Occidental cut expected capital expenditure for this year by more than half after oil prices plummeted, and dropped its quarterly dividend to a penny per share.

“You took a company (Occidental) that was healthy, and potentially an acquisition target itself, and it looks like you created a much larger unhealthy company,” said one energy M&A lawyer.

There are few exit strategies for companies holding unwanted assets and acreage. Some, like Occidental, are seeking to sell assets to pay down debt even though buyers are scarce. Others will likely be forced to unload stakes at a loss.

There have been a few deals. Chevron executed the largest - a $13 billion purchase of Noble Energy (NBL.O). But more big acquisitions are unlikely, said Sven del Pozzo, analyst at IHSMarkit.

“I don’t think they’re going to go snapping up shale players anytime soon. A lot of these companies haven’t even been able to prove that they can make money with what they have,” he said.

Occidental recently said it would sell assets in Colorado and Utah as it struggles to whittle down its $36 billion debt load.

“People were too focused on growth as opposed to really drilling things that make sense,” said Brock Hudson, managing director at investment bank and advisory firm Carl Marks Advisors. “It’s hard not to appear that you overpaid when we end up in a situation like we are right now.”

Overall, Permian basin purchases accounted for nearly a third of the 2016-2019 deals, Ernst and Young said. In the Permian, over 80 deals were done in which exploration and production companies (E&Ps) paid over $10,000 an acre, according to industry information provider Enverus.

“The current price environment is in no way sufficient for a large number of E&Ps in the medium-term,” said Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.

Different formulas can be used to evaluate deals, but analysts said Concho Resources Inc’s (CXO.N) March 2018 purchase of RSP Permian was one of the costliest. The $9.5 billion deal implied a $75,504 purchase price per acre.

Diamondback Energy Inc’s (FANG.O) 2018 purchase of Energen came out to a $54,977 per-acre price, but from a price-per-barrel metric, it was the most expensive Permian deal, according to Wood MacKenzie, at an average Brent price of more than $77 a barrel.
FILE PHOTO: A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 21, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Bankruptcies are expected to pick up in the second half of the year. By July, 32 oil and gas producers filed for bankruptcy, according to law firm Haynes and Boone. After a sharp price drop in 2014, about 100 companies filed for bankruptcy protection in 2015 and 2016, the firm said.

This year’s bankruptcies so far left about $49.7 billion of secured and unsecured debt to be settled, compared with $73 billion in 2015 and 2016, Haynes and Boone said.

Reporting By Jessica Resnick-Ault, Dmitry Zhdannikov, David Gaffen; additional reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Marguerita Choy
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https://news.yahoo.com/tidal-wave-power-cuts-may-143846628.html

A 'Tidal Wave' of Power Cuts May Be Coming as Electric Companies Resume Shutoffs
[Time]
Alana Semuels
,Time•August 31, 2020

A power company does repairs in Ventura, California

A Southern California Edison crew installs a new overhead switch for circuit reliability on May 13, 2020 in Ventura, Calif. Credit - Brent Stirton—Getty Image

For people who lost jobs or income during the pandemic, life has been a series of terrifying deadlines. There was July 24, the end of a federal eviction moratorium from government-backed housing, which had protected about one-third of renters. There was July 30, when a program providing an extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits expired, reducing the incomes of tens of millions of Americans.

Now, the beginning of September looms as yet another deadline as utility companies resume cutting power to customers who have fallen behind on their bills. In some states, moratoriums preventing them from doing so are ending, and in other states, utility company pledges to keep customers connected are winding down. Residents in Ohio, Florida, Maryland, Indiana, and Illinois are all at risk of shutoffs in early September; shutoffs can resume in late September or October in North Carolina,Tennessee and Texas.

“We’re facing a tidal wave of terminations,” says Charlie Harak, senior attorney for energy and utilities issues at the National Consumer Law Center.
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There is no national account of how many customers could lose power, but there are certainly millions of people who risk disconnection at a time when people need their utilities the most. Kids need electricity to attend online classes, which will be the norm for hundreds of thousands of them as schools reopen. They need light in the evening to do homework. And in large swaths of the country facing extreme heat, life without power means no fans or air conditioning. Additionally, cutoffs can increase risks of COVID-19 infection by forcing some people to leave their homes and squeeze into cramped quarters with friends or relatives who have electrcity.
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https://news.yahoo.com/tidal-wave-power-cuts-may-143846628.html

A 'Tidal Wave' of Power Cuts May Be Coming as Electric Companies Resume Shutoffs
[Time]
Alana Semuels
,Time•August 31, 2020

A power company does repairs in Ventura, California

A Southern California Edison crew installs a new overhead switch for circuit reliability on May 13, 2020 in Ventura, Calif. Credit - Brent Stirton—Getty Image

For people who lost jobs or income during the pandemic, life has been a series of terrifying deadlines. There was July 24, the end of a federal eviction moratorium from government-backed housing, which had protected about one-third of renters. There was July 30, when a program providing an extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits expired, reducing the incomes of tens of millions of Americans.

Now, the beginning of September looms as yet another deadline as utility companies resume cutting power to customers who have fallen behind on their bills. In some states, moratoriums preventing them from doing so are ending, and in other states, utility company pledges to keep customers connected are winding down. Residents in Ohio, Florida, Maryland, Indiana, and Illinois are all at risk of shutoffs in early September; shutoffs can resume in late September or October in North Carolina,Tennessee and Texas.

“We’re facing a tidal wave of terminations,” says Charlie Harak, senior attorney for energy and utilities issues at the National Consumer Law Center.
- ADVERTISEMENT -

There is no national account of how many customers could lose power, but there are certainly millions of people who risk disconnection at a time when people need their utilities the most. Kids need electricity to attend online classes, which will be the norm for hundreds of thousands of them as schools reopen. They need light in the evening to do homework. And in large swaths of the country facing extreme heat, life without power means no fans or air conditioning. Additionally, cutoffs can increase risks of COVID-19 infection by forcing some people to leave their homes and squeeze into cramped quarters with friends or relatives who have electrcity.

The system has already been horrible for some time now, but if a form of UBI conditional to employment or a job guaranty program doesn't see the light of day soon, I fear things will soon get truly terrifying ...
Man can do what he will, but he cannot will what he wills.
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The system has already been horrible for some time now, but if a form of UBI conditional to employment or a job guaranty program doesn't see the light of day soon, I fear things will soon get truly terrifying ...

Things are already truly terrifying.

You can't travel worth a damn. You can't go out for dinner.  You gotta wear a mask every time you leave the house.  Hurricanes are hitting about once a week.  We have an imbecile for POTUS.  We are on the verge of World War with the Ruskies and Chinese.  Da Fed is printing money out of thin air.  Riots are a Daily Feature of life.

The Titanic is going down.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/MPklvytosy4" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/MPklvytosy4</a>

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🛢️ Schlumberger Sale Marks Shale Turning Point
« Reply #276 on: September 02, 2020, 10:02:59 AM »
...and another one Bites the Dust!   :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/schlumberger_sale_marks_shale_turning_point-01-sep-2020-163173-article/

Schlumberger Sale Marks Shale Turning Point
by Bloomberg
|
David Wethe
|
Tuesday, September 01, 2020


Schlumberger revealed Tuesday its OneStim unit will be combined with Liberty Oilfield Services in exchange for a 37% stake in the combined company.

(Bloomberg) -- Schlumberger has become the biggest oil-service industry player yet to abandon frack work in North America, a sign that activity in the U.S. shale patch may never revisit previous highs.

The provider of drilling and oil-production equipment agreed to sell its U.S. and Canadian fracking business to smaller rival Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. After similar exits over the past few years by Baker Hughes Co. and Weatherford International Plc, Halliburton Co. is now the sole global provider of well completions for shale, and even Halliburton has said it’s looking overseas for better growth.

For Schlumberger, the world’s top oilfield-services company, the deal is a massive reversal from its North American buying binge over the past few years, which added frack-sand mines, artificial-lift technology and Weatherford’s frack fleet. For Liberty, meanwhile, buying Schlumberger’s OneStim unit in exchange for a 37% stake in the company means the oilfield contractor will more than double the size of its frack fleet in a market that has sidelined three-fourths of U.S. crews this year.

“The Covid pandemic has thrown the world for a loop, bringing serious threats to our industry,” Chris Wright, chief executive of Denver-based Liberty, told analysts and investors Tuesday on a conference call. “But these dark hours are most fertile for opportunity.”

OneStim helps customers extract oil and gas from shale wells by blasting water, sand and chemicals underground to release trapped hydrocarbons. When combined with horizontal drilling, fracking launched the shale boom more than a decade ago. But now an historic crash in oil prices along with a glut of fracking gear has triggered a crisis that’s driven some frackers into bankruptcy.

The combination with OneStim, which is expected to close in the final three months of this year, will make Liberty the second-biggest U.S. fracker with 2.3 million horsepower, according to Citigroup Inc.

“The last several months have been extremely challenging for the world, the industry and the Liberty family,” Wright said in a statement announcing the deal. “This transaction will be a transformative step forward in our journey as a company.”

Schlumberger’s sale comes less than three years after it acquired Weatherford’s fracking unit for $430 million. Liberty said Tuesday it plans to scrap 1 million horsepower -- essentially the former Weatherford fleet -- amid an industrywide glut. As shale explorers heeded investor calls to rein in spending, fracking demand has dwindled. Beginning late last year, frack providers took the unusual step of scrapping much of their idle equipment.

The business started to show signs of recovery at the start of 2020, until the pandemic paralyzed economic activity and the energy usage that underpins it. By July, Schlumberger was describing the decline in fracking demand as “precipitous,” contributing to a 40% plunge in second-quarter revenue.

The Liberty deal is the latest move by Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch to adjust to the oil crash. The company has announced plans to cut more than 21,000 workers and reshuffle its business around the globe.

“The transaction is consistent with CEO Olivier Le Peuch’s comments about not needing to own frac assets, his strategy for SLB to become asset light and licensing SLB technology to other companies,” Kurt Hallead, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to investors.

Liberty surged as much as 42% for its biggest intraday gain ever, while Schlumberger dropped as much as 2.9% on Tuesday.
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Offline BuddyJ

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The system has already been horrible for some time now, but if a form of UBI conditional to employment or a job guaranty program doesn't see the light of day soon, I fear things will soon get truly terrifying ...

Things are already truly terrifying.

You can't travel worth a damn. You can't go out for dinner.  You gotta wear a mask every time you leave the house.  Hurricanes are hitting about once a week.  We have an imbecile for POTUS.  We are on the verge of World War with the Ruskies and Chinese.  Da Fed is printing money out of thin air.  Riots are a Daily Feature of life.

I'm not convinced that the view we get over the internet, itself specializing in the sensationalism, attention grabbing and always leaning towards a click-bait angle, can be used to claim "terrifying".

It appears to be too easy...to read what is presented in our favorite (and most certainly confirmation biased based) information feeds, to proceed to assuming the worst and then presto...end of world. You can go out to dinner. Yes, you have to wear a mask when around others at a close distance...and this isn't an unreasonable thing. Hurricanes, the same ones that DIDN'T show up on other summers when called for, finally arrived. We have an imbecile for POTUS, sure, not much different than a senile Reagan, but I'll give you malevolent incompetence is worse than just a doddering old codger. We aren't going to war with anyone soon, the Feds have been printing money since Helicopter Ben was in charge and in all those riots we don't have anything resembling a Kent State yet, for all the press and video coverage and exciting headlines generated that folks gleefully soak up. Has the sum total of all the BLM activity approached the ferocity and death toll of the Rodney King riots that lasted just a few days?

Much like the end of the world via peak oil in 2005, the Great Recession of 2008, the Mayan Calendar end of the world in 2012, the triangle of death in 2015, and so on and so forth. Doesn't it seem a bit reasonable, knowing how these things work, to recognize that our certainty throughout all these episodes demonstrates nothing so much as...there are no facts about the future?

I doubt the world is ending this time either. Terrifying certainly doesn't describe tomorrow as much as "more of the same", most likely leading to yet another rearrangement of political fortunes come November 4th. And the US continuing its corrosive decline into something more mediocre, rather than exceptional.

Sorry to hear about your health RE, maybe once you get to the hospital there will be a better diagnosis and capability to improve the condition? In either case, good luck.
 

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The system has already been horrible for some time now, but if a form of UBI conditional to employment or a job guaranty program doesn't see the light of day soon, I fear things will soon get truly terrifying ...

Things are already truly terrifying.

You can't travel worth a damn. You can't go out for dinner.  You gotta wear a mask every time you leave the house.  Hurricanes are hitting about once a week.  We have an imbecile for POTUS.  We are on the verge of World War with the Ruskies and Chinese.  Da Fed is printing money out of thin air.  Riots are a Daily Feature of life.

I'm not convinced that the view we get over the internet, itself specializing in the sensationalism, attention grabbing and always leaning towards a click-bait angle, can be used to claim "terrifying".

It appears to be too easy...to read what is presented in our favorite (and most certainly confirmation biased based) information feeds, to proceed to assuming the worst and then presto...end of world. You can go out to dinner. Yes, you have to wear a mask when around others at a close distance...and this isn't an unreasonable thing. Hurricanes, the same ones that DIDN'T show up on other summers when called for, finally arrived. We have an imbecile for POTUS, sure, not much different than a senile Reagan, but I'll give you malevolent incompetence is worse than just a doddering old codger. We aren't going to war with anyone soon, the Feds have been printing money since Helicopter Ben was in charge and in all those riots we don't have anything resembling a Kent State yet, for all the press and video coverage and exciting headlines generated that folks gleefully soak up. Has the sum total of all the BLM activity approached the ferocity and death toll of the Rodney King riots that lasted just a few days?

Much like the end of the world via peak oil in 2005, the Great Recession of 2008, the Mayan Calendar end of the world in 2012, the triangle of death in 2015, and so on and so forth. Doesn't it seem a bit reasonable, knowing how these things work, to recognize that our certainty throughout all these episodes demonstrates nothing so much as...there are no facts about the future?

I doubt the world is ending this time either. Terrifying certainly doesn't describe tomorrow as much as "more of the same", most likely leading to yet another rearrangement of political fortunes come November 4th. And the US continuing its corrosive decline into something more mediocre, rather than exceptional.

Sorry to hear about your health RE, maybe once you get to the hospital there will be a better diagnosis and capability to improve the condition? In either case, good luck.

With all due respect MKing, you wouldn't be tasked with telling us all is well, if it were. Things can't be right when Russia can steal an election, but still can't make lethal novichok.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 04:40:36 AM by Phil Rumpole »
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Offline BuddyJ

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #279 on: September 09, 2020, 05:21:09 PM »
With all due respect MKing, you wouldn't be tasked with telling us all is well, if it were. Things can't be right when Russia can steal an election, but still can't make lethal novichok.

If memory serves, Dan Jarvie is hardly the person that anyone would task with being this forum's bubba-yega.

And if reading comprehension is worth anything in today's world, I didn't say, write or imply that all is well. Only that being terrified year after year of TEOTWAWKI might teach any of us that we terrify way too easily.

What an absolutely bizarre thing to accuse someone of, thinking that all is well, in this day and age.

 

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #280 on: September 09, 2020, 06:56:17 PM »

And if reading comprehension is worth anything in today's world, I didn't say, write or imply that all is well. Only that being terrified year after year of TEOTWAWKI might teach any of us that we terrify way too easily.

Anyone who is NOT terrified by what is coming down the pipe here is a few cans short of a 6-pack.

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #281 on: September 09, 2020, 06:58:41 PM »
If you're the man who once posted here as MKIng.....and we both know you are....the only question is "Who is Rumpole?"...and I think the answer to that one one is pretty obvious. It took a while for it to dawn on me, though.

Only the names have been changed, perhaps to protect the innocent. As if there were any.

If he is old enough to have built a bicycle cart from an old lawnmower in the Great Depression, he would be closer to my father's age than mine, and I'm now at the age when people usually retire these days. My father would be turning 100 this month, if he were still alive.

That might be a clue. :laugh: :laugh:

The end of the world might yet take a while. But I don't think I'm still in the world that I once knew....I declare it dead...and not coming back. This is a world of competing delusions....pick your poison....drink the Kool-Aid of your choice. Or not....but it is hard to not drink some kind of Kool-Aid. This world is just begging us to pick a side.

But my advice, often ignored,  remains the same. Just try to make yourself comfortable and put something away for your old age if you can. Make yourself a family, and love them and treat them as well as you can. Drink a little wine late at night and dance with your partner out on the porch, to the oldies. Try to live one day at a time. Build some things you can be proud of....Have some real adventures, if you can. While you still can.

RE, sorry to hear you're too sick to stay at home anymore. But frankly, you've done much better than I ever thought you would. You've lived with true courage these last few years. I'm your witness. It's been good to know you, and I wish you the best possible outcome.

Buddy J, good to know you too. Sorry I missed you in S. Carolina that time...I would have enjoyed getting to know you better.

So, Phil....have you made a change of physical address? That's what threw me off....but then maybe I'm just completely mistaken about your true identity....it doesn't really matter. But I think I figured it out. No, don't tell me. I'd rather not know for sure.

Ashvin,....you should email me some time. I would love to buy you dinner in a post-COVID world.

Monsta, I wish you the best.  Lucid and GM too.. Even Surly....even though we have irreconcilable differences, as they say.

Since I left the forum, I've tried several others, and they all really suck. Confirmation bias is not a characteristic wholly limited to the Diner. YouTube sucks too. They're all in it for the clicks.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/kV7ou6pl5wU&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/kV7ou6pl5wU&fs=1</a>

I saw that one on Broadway,....we had really good seats.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Phil Rumpole

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #282 on: September 09, 2020, 07:48:35 PM »
So, Phil....have you made a change of physical address?"

After the war the lucky ones who knew about jet and rocket engines got asylum for the  Apollo program to catch up to sputnik. Stanley Kubrick got it ahead. Most others  moved to Argentina and Chile

"This is a world of competing delusions....pick your poison....drink the Kool-Aid of your choice. Or not....but it is hard to not drink some kind of Kool-Aid. This world is just begging us to pick a side."

I noticed that too. So was wondering your take on all the Kenosha shootings, in this no middle ground landscape?


« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 10:39:47 PM by Phil Rumpole »
Women are like hurricanes: Wet and wild when they come, take your house when they leave

Offline BuddyJ

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #283 on: September 10, 2020, 05:44:17 AM »

And if reading comprehension is worth anything in today's world, I didn't say, write or imply that all is well. Only that being terrified year after year of TEOTWAWKI might teach any of us that we terrify way too easily.

Anyone who is NOT terrified by what is coming down the pipe here is a few cans short of a 6-pack.

RE

How can anyone go through life, suffering terror spanning the time from Ehrlichs Great Dieoff of the 1980's to now, continue to be terrified? It is a defeatist type of mental energy, it would seem to impede progress through life, dull the senses to apparent lesser problems (like all the other things happening in life), and create someone (to date anyway) near permanently disappointed by events unfolding around them.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Hills Group Oil Depletion Economic and Thermodynamic Report
« Reply #284 on: September 10, 2020, 05:46:52 AM »
So, Phil....have you made a change of physical address?"

After the war the lucky ones who knew about jet and rocket engines got asylum for the  Apollo program to catch up to sputnik. Stanley Kubrick got it ahead. Most others  moved to Argentina and Chile

"This is a world of competing delusions....pick your poison....drink the Kool-Aid of your choice. Or not....but it is hard to not drink some kind of Kool-Aid. This world is just begging us to pick a side."

I noticed that too. So was wondering your take on all the Kenosha shootings, in this no middle ground landscape?

Since you asked, I think the right-wing shooter kid is a product of his environment, which probably included a lot of indoctrination from somebody. I see him not as an isolated individual, but rather as a symptom of our disease.....not that unlike a school shooter...it's just that his delusion is shared by a lot more  people,. which ultimately makes the  phenomenon more dangerous.

And he doesn't look like the sharpest crayon in the box, frankly.

On the original police shooting, I stand my previous statements. In a country with 55 million arrests a year, and many more police-citizen encounters, I don't see any chance of getting down to zero on shootings of black guys.....I believe racism exists in policing, but mental illness, drug-induced impairment, running from cops, resisting arrest, and demographic factors (more cops get called in black neighborhoods)all that figures in.....racism is only one part of it......and a thousand deaths in 55 million incidents is a vanishingly small number. Even if the real number is 10X the reported number, it's still vanishingly small.

But it only takes one viral video to put people in the street. I doubt that will change.

A left-leaning politico I once voted for said that there is nothing left in the middle of the road except for white lines and dead armadillos.....and that isn't too far from the truth.

Speaking for myself, I no longer identify much with either liberals of conservatives. The conservatives have no heart, no moral scruples, and no ethics. The liberals have gone completely loony tunes over social justice issues and identity politics. And their leadership is hollow at the core.....

So where is any middle? You tell me. If I were younger, I'd move to Canada and try to get used to the weather......move to an even more rural location......but at least I'm not in California.....poor bastards. Climate change is tearing California a new ass.

« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 07:03:19 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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