AuthorTopic: Merchants of Doubt  (Read 9073 times)

Offline RE

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Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2015, 12:14:06 AM »
We're close enough to population collapse that you could pop popcorn, put it in your freezer, and it'd still be edible when the die-off comes.

Depending on location, the Dieoff is already underway.

Japan already has a negative birth-death rate in progress



Same thing with Russia, although they seem to have made something of a recovery here through 2012



Given the ongoing wars in MENA, its likely that Deaths exceed Births in many places like Syria, Iraq etc.

Given the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa, Sierra Leone & Guinea, likelihood is their Birth-Death rate is also negative.

Far as the European countries go, Portugal's Birth Rate is in steady decline



Can't find the Death Rate chart for Portugal though.

Interestingly, you cannot find an FSoA chart for Birth-Death similar to the Japanese or Russian ones.  Apparently nobody is charting this statistic here.  ::)  At least one did not turn up with the same Google term of "Japan Birth Death Rate" substituting USA for Japan.

Perhaps in some 3rd world countries you still have Positive Birth-Death ratios, but with decreasing per capita food supply and increasing disease epidemics and warfare, I seriously doubt these places are rapidly increasing in population anymore.

The main question is how fast the trend accelerates, but I think it is pretty clear that the Dieoff has already begun.

RE
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Offline monsta666

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #16 on: March 05, 2015, 12:49:48 AM »
In big chunks of Europe the population is declining due to low birth rates. I visited Barcelona not that long ago and it was quite noticeable the lack of children that were around in the streets which is quite telling seeing as I wasn't even trying to observe birth rates. However what needs to be borne in mind is that many countries in Europe will have these decline offset (at least partially) by immigration from the middle-east/Africa. It is this reason why you periodically hear debates that some European states will become majority Muslim by 2050 or so. I doubt that will happen but the point is immigration will play a significant role in population dynamics.

Saying all that in my eyes there is a difference between a population decline in say Japan and that of a die-off. A die-off, at least to me, implies that the population in question is dying for reasons other than old age also the change needs to be quite significant i.e. at least a million per year. Using that criteria most countries won't fit that description save perhaps the collapse of the USSR and possibly places like Syria, Yemen etc. However in the latter cases while death rates are higher it is also probable that those regions experience higher birth rates so population may not actually be declining. Moreover many of these countries will have a younger demographic so assuming the war ends then population is likely to rebound more quickly seeing as a bigger percentage of women will be in the child bearing age.

One interesting thing to note is in the book Limits to Growth it predicted that as death rates rise birth rates will increase also (although not enough to offset the higher death rates). Whether that happens is another matter but I suppose couples could try for a child longer if they knew some kids were not going to make it past childhood. Then again such a big change in attitude towards children would need a cultural change and that only happens over longer periods say 50 or 60 years after the environment changes fundamentally.

Offline RE

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2015, 01:51:41 AM »
However what needs to be borne in mind is that many countries in Europe will have these decline offset (at least partially) by immigration from the middle-east/Africa.

Migration does not make a difference as far as aggregate Dieoff is concerned.  Population gained in Europe by MENA refugees is an equal population lost by the place they evacuated.  To keep getting aggregate population increase, you have to postulate that even with ever escalating warfare, ever deteriorating water supplies, ever less arable land to cultivate and ever less working money to buy anything to live on, these populations will keep on producing more & more refugees heading to Europe.  That is Magical Thinking.  Also Magical Thinking is that the European Countries like Italy that already are having trouble feeding and finding work for their current populations will keep welcoming in new refugees.  This is totally unsustainable, so at some point it halts.

It may or may not be true that in nations like Libya that the population size (and the amount of potential refugees) is decreasing quite yet, but I suspect it is.  Many want to get out, but that will simply depopulate Libya while increasing the population of Italy by an equal amount, until the Italians say NO MORE.  At which point the excess Libyan population who can't get out of Libya dies off.

Its not an inexhaustible supply here of humanity that will be born in the 3rd World and migrate to what they think are Greener Pastures in the West.  Their Birth/Death ratio also will plummet, and likely quite more rapidly than the Japanese one currently is doing.

RE
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 01:55:06 AM by RE »
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2015, 02:25:50 AM »

Interestingly, you cannot find an FSoA chart for Birth-Death similar to the Japanese or Russian ones.  Apparently nobody is charting this statistic here.  ::)  At least one did not turn up with the same Google term of "Japan Birth Death Rate" substituting USA for Japan.

Perhaps in some 3rd world countries you still have Positive Birth-Death ratios, but with decreasing per capita food supply and increasing disease epidemics and warfare, I seriously doubt these places are rapidly increasing in population anymore.
RE

Pretty interesting. Although the "dieoff" clearly has roots in declining birth rates.

I did find this:


and this:


But you are correct, they don't make it easy.

I did learn that, given the passing of a couple of genrations, we'll all be Mormons:

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline monsta666

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2015, 02:32:03 AM »
If you take everything in aggregate then I don't believe there is a die-off at this moment of time. Population is still increasing despite conditions becoming increasingly difficult to support existing populations. I think the increases in Africa and Asia more than make up for any declines happening in the advanced economies and war torn states in the Middle-East or other failed states. As the number of war zones and failed states increase then the trends will likely reverse and population will decline. It is just a question of time when this happens. It is this reason why I reject the projections that suggest immigration into Europe will carry on for the next 50 years. At some point it will become impossible to support more immigrates from a social, political or economical front. The main argument I make is I do not feel we have reached the point where the borders are shut completely. The doors are closing granted but they have not shut up shop. It will come soon enough but the hardcore doom porn has not arrived just yet so patience.

When the Greeks are cut loose from the Euro I am pretty sure the southern states will follow in short order and when that happens those countries will be in a world of hurt. Since a lot of the pain inflicted would be due to external influences suspicion of foreigners will be very high and it is likely at that point there would be a clampdown on immigration. If conflicts in the Middle-East escalate then naturally there will be greater pressure exerted on borders from people trying to get into Europe. What we are likely to see are some explosive situations as you have some people desperate to leave their home country while the native European nation becomes increasingly hostile to such movements.

The thing to bear in mind is even if things are desperate in Italy immigrants will still risk life and limb to enter the country because a) it cannot be worse than their home country and b) there is a perception that people in Europe live on roads of gold to many people immigrating especially the younger immigrants. The difficulties of becoming an illegal immigrant only become apparent later on once they are actually in the country. The other thing that does attract people to Europe is places like Italy, Greece etc. are the frontier nations of the EU. Once you can set foot there and pass the patrols you have free reign to travel all the way to France due to most of mainland Europe being part of the Schengen zone. I suppose in the longer run old border patrols may become reinstated if immigration pressure rise too much. The other issue is some leniency is shown to refugees if it can be proven they are from a war torn state or the government they fled from is committing crimes against humanity so from a legal perspective in become dicey to refuse entry to them en-mass. Still, despite those legal barriers I am sure these things can change but the key here is it will take some time for the change to be implemented and the new trends to be felt.

Offline RE

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Re: Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2015, 02:44:43 AM »

But you are correct, they don't make it easy.

Reminds me of the difficulty I had trying to find the statistics of the Death Rate during the worst years of the Great Depression, when I made my argument on TBP that 7M died here during that period.  The stats for this were tabulated by GUESS WHO?  The Federal Reserve Bank!  The 1932-1933 records were expunged.  A Russian researcher Boris Borisov got hold of them from some old books in a Moscow Library.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/NFJGr1qYiww?feature=player_detailpage" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/NFJGr1qYiww?feature=player_detailpage</a>

My bet here is the Birth-Death Ratio in the FSoA is not doing a whole lot better than Japan these days.

RE
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Offline RE

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The Amerikan Holocaust
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2015, 02:50:47 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/eO-eVe2xJZs?feature=player_detailpage" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/eO-eVe2xJZs?feature=player_detailpage</a>

4 more parts all available on You Tube.

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2015, 03:01:16 AM »

But you are correct, they don't make it easy.

Reminds me of the difficulty I had trying to find the statistics of the Death Rate during the worst years of the Great Depression, when I made my argument on TBP that 7M died here during that period.  The stats for this were tabulated by GUESS WHO?  The Federal Reserve Bank!  The 1932-1933 records were expunged.  A Russian researcher Boris Borisov got hold of them from some old books in a Moscow Library.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/NFJGr1qYiww?feature=player_detailpage" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/NFJGr1qYiww?feature=player_detailpage</a>

My bet here is the Birth-Death Ratio in the FSoA is not doing a whole lot better than Japan these days.

RE

I remember that episode well. The shit throwing monkeys, led by JQ himself as I recall, had a field day with that. They NEVER read such a thing in their history books!

And this from the same crowd ever so quick to bitch when quarterly employment stats are simlarly massaged by the current regime.

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline RE

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Re: Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2015, 03:16:41 AM »

I remember that episode well. The shit throwing monkeys, led by JQ himself as I recall, had a field day with that. They NEVER read such a thing in their history books!

And this from the same crowd ever so quick to bitch when quarterly employment stats are simlarly massaged by the current regime.

The 7 Million number followed me on TBP for all the rest of the time I published there, as a form of ridicule.

The deal is, it is basically CFS that at least that many died during the period, you have all John Steinbeck's work from the Grapes of Wrath and his journalism documenting what went on in the CA Killing Fields, not to mention all of Dorothea Lange's photographs of people who were clearly starving.






Besides that are the records of tuberculosis deaths (disease which attacks weakened people) and the Food riots and marches of the period.

If anything 7M is an underestimate of the number that succumbed during the worst years of the Great Depression.

RE
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Offline RE

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2015, 03:35:00 AM »
I do not feel we have reached the point where the borders are shut completely.

I agree with you there, still a decent amount of cross border movement, though it is increasingly being cracked down on.

However, I do not think that the current stats for birth/death in the 3rd World are in any way accurate.  Definitely not accurate in the war torn states, but what states in the 3rd world are NOT war torn now, at least by Civil War?

We will NEVER get a truly accurate count on any of this.  However, here is a very simple equation for you.  If the amount of food going IN to a country along with the amount of food they produce is shrinking, then the Population of HS inside those borders ALSO has to be shrinking.   You can't keep increasing Human Biomass without increasing the inputs.

I bet most of the 3rd world countries with resource problems are currently Birth/Death rate negative.  That would be almost all of them.

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Offline Jaded Prole

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2015, 06:34:18 AM »
An article I read this morning on Truthout relates to this: http://truth-out.org/news/item/29378-austerity-kills-economic-distress-seen-as-culprit-in-sharp-rise-in-suicide-rate-among-middle-aged. This hits home for me as an older discarded worker. I recently wrote an article  for a local paper on this issue citing the same statistic and source. Aside from war-injured vets, I think that economic difficulties are a primary driver of suicides. There are also many preventable deaths due work-related and environmental illness compounded by lack of access to medical care, all result from a corrupt system run by sociopathic mammon worshipers.

Offline g

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2015, 06:43:51 AM »
An article I read this morning on Truthout relates to this: http://truth-out.org/news/item/29378-austerity-kills-economic-distress-seen-as-culprit-in-sharp-rise-in-suicide-rate-among-middle-aged. This hits home for me as an older discarded worker. I recently wrote an article  for a local paper on this issue citing the same statistic and source. Aside from war-injured vets, I think that economic difficulties are a primary driver of suicides. There are also many preventable deaths due work-related and environmental illness compounded by lack of access to medical care, all result from a corrupt system run by sociopathic mammon worshipers.

Hi Jaded Prole, Yes it certainly is a problem. There are many folks that don't go the suicide route, but just lose the desire to live and go into long periods of depression and slow relentless health decline from it as well. While not counted as suicides, it is pretty much the same outcome in my view, and afflicts a great many people that do not appear in the statistics.

Offline monsta666

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Re: Is the Great Dieoff already in Progress?
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2015, 06:44:44 AM »
The 7 Million number followed me on TBP for all the rest of the time I published there, as a form of ridicule.

The deal is, it is basically CFS that at least that many died during the period, you have all John Steinbeck's work from the Grapes of Wrath and his journalism documenting what went on in the CA Killing Fields, not to mention all of Dorothea Lange's photographs of people who were clearly starving.

The problem with believing seven million died during the Great Depression is it challenges the idea of rugged individualism. There is generally the belief that individuals may struggle in various points in their lives but ultimately they will prevail over any adversity thrown in front of them. The other problem in believing that a large number of people died is it challenges an even more fundamental idea which is capitalism and liberal markets. I just don't think people on The Burning Platform (for all their whining) are comfortable with the idea of a heavily regulated market to prevent the huge excesses that come with an unconstrained market.

In any case what is important to note is at the time there was a lot of doubt of whether capitalism was the best economic system to pursue even with people in the United States. This thought was not helped by the fact that communist states at the time (such as Russia) were largely unaffected by the fallout that came from the depression. There was a large amount of pressure to pursue socialistic or even communistic ideas throughout Europe and America. As such it was not really in the interests of the people in power to document the true costs of the depression. It is a bit like how you never hear figures for how many Iraqi civilians get killed in the war in terror.

In fact if anything there would be the pressure to say the exact opposite and I think this could be one reason why instead of providing accurate information on the real struggles of the average person it was better to project a sanitised version of reality where people struggled but did not die. It also had the added benefit of making it seem the average American was more capable and resourceful than reality so it is a message that would be easily believed by the masses. The other thing to remember is the stories of the living are more interesting than the stories of the dead so naturally (even without any political spin/pressure) there will be a tendency towards survival bias when it comes to documenting stories.

Offline MKing

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2015, 07:06:46 AM »
Aside from war-injured vets, I think that economic difficulties are a primary driver of suicides.

Not mental disease and illness? Suicide can be the most rational decision a human being makes, or the least rational. And nowadays, when we are all told that there is a pill to cure our feelings that we were cheated by not being born Bill Gates' kid, some figure out that even the pill can't hide our feeling of being "owed".

Quote from: Jaded Prole
There are also many preventable deaths due work-related and environmental illness compounded by lack of access to medical care, all result from a corrupt system run by sociopathic mammon worshipers.

Well, at least in the developed world there are far fewer work related deaths nowadays than there once were. OSHA had something to do with that, as well as making sure that workers needed discarded for any reason whatsoever that might interfere with a companies risk profile. The bastards.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Merchants of Doubt
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2015, 07:55:50 AM »
Your favorite politicians do it to you but I don't hear you complaining about the ones you like, as opposed to those you don't. Same game, and they aren't evil for doing it, and it doesn't make them evil knowing you'll fall for it hook, line and sinker.
When they dumb down the education system to ensure that result, THAT is evil.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

 

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