AuthorTopic: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?  (Read 154522 times)

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #930 on: December 29, 2019, 05:01:15 PM »
The idea you can make any kind of prediction about the Oil Market for the next decade is ludicrous.   ::)
RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Ten-Years-In-Oil-Markets.html

The Next Ten Years In Oil Markets



No kidding. The only thing for sure...



I unfortunatley agree. :-[
I dont play the fiddle, so the answer is simple: Put your feet up, have a cigar and a nice cognac and watch rome burn. Getting a lttle too literal here in Oz at the moment, but thats another thread....
https://manofmany.com/lifestyle/drinks/10-best-cognac-brands-to-spruce-up-your-snifter
https://www.cigaraficionado.com/top25/2018

JOW

Offline RE

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🛢️ US natural gas prices drop to lowest level in 4 years
« Reply #931 on: January 21, 2020, 05:30:12 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/7764bb4e-3b75-11ea-b232-000f4477fbca

Natural gas
US natural gas prices drop to lowest level in 4 years
Supply expected to keep growing in 2020 while demand has been subdued

A liquefied natural gas terminal in Texas. Falliing prices pose a challenge to US producers of the fuel © Bloomberg

David Sheppard, Energy Editor yesterday

US natural gas prices fell to the lowest level in four years on Monday, plunging below $2 per million British thermal units as ample supplies and warmer-than-expected weather weigh on the market.

Benchmark prices for US natural gas have more than halved since late 2018, posing a challenge to producers of the fuel in the shale fields of Texas and Pennsylvania. But traders remain bearish on the outlook despite forecasts that output could eventually start to fall. Drillers have conserved cash rather than pursue ever-higher production after the market slumped.

Last week, the US Energy Information Administration forecast that supplies of domestically produced natural gas would not start to fall until 2021. It said output should rise 3 per cent this year to a new record of 94.7bn cubic feet per day.

Traders said the slide below $2 per mmbtu to a low of $1.83 on Monday came as much of the US experienced unseasonably mild temperatures, reducing demand for natural gas that is widely used in heating as well as electricity generation.

It is not just a problem in the US. Warmer temperatures in parts of Europe and Asia have also cut demand for natural gas, which feeds back into the US price given its growing role as a major exporter of liquefied natural gas. “Warm weather has sapped global heating demand,” said analysts at Energy Aspects, a consultancy.

Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank said concerns were growing that with the mild winter looking set to continue, the US could head into the spring and summer with inventory levels well above average. That is before the traditional build-up in storage over the warmer months.
Why commodities won't stay cheap forever

“We’re basically running out of winter with weather forecasts so far not picking up any signs of a dramatic change in February,” Mr Hansen said. “We need to see a response from producers willing to reduce production before this market bottoms out, as at the moment there is just too much supply. But that may not happen quickly.”

Hedge funds, encouraged by the supply glut, have taken to betting increasingly aggressively against the price. In the past week they upped their net short positions — the difference between bets on falling and rising prices — to almost 267,000 futures and options contracts. That is the largest short position on record based on data going back to 2013.

Last year, hedge funds’ bet against the US natural gas market peaked in the summer at less than 240,000 contracts.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #932 on: January 21, 2020, 06:00:47 AM »
Demand destruction is keeping FF's weak in spite of the MENA wars.  Gail T. was (and still is) right about that.
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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #933 on: January 21, 2020, 06:35:06 AM »
Demand destruction is keeping FF's weak in spite of the MENA wars.  Gail T. was (and still is) right about that.

Steve, Nicole & me beat Gail to that deduction.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #934 on: January 21, 2020, 07:20:30 AM »
Demand destruction is keeping FF's weak in spite of the MENA wars.  Gail T. was (and still is) right about that.

Steve, Nicole & me beat Gail to that deduction.

RE

Well, that part of the collapse narrative is correct, in any case. The evidence is very clear now.

I keep reading articles that question climate change....I think the evidence is pretty clear there too, although I'm not sure we're on Greta's timeline (which is the same as Guy McPherson's, as best I can tell.)

Lots of denial out there on climate, especially with many alternative journalists who should know better. They all sound like some variation of this:

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/09/26/russia-has-greta-thunbergs-solution/

I don't  think we beat climate change....but nuke energy is definitely a way delay the inevitable, and it probably will gain more proponents. I don't see the Russians as having solved the issues......they're the poster child for environmental disasters of all kinds...but there are ways to cut down on nuclear waste.



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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #935 on: January 21, 2020, 08:36:20 AM »
I don't  think we beat climate change....but nuke energy is definitely a way delay the inevitable, and it probably will gain more proponents. I don't see the Russians as having solved the issues......they're the poster child for environmental disasters of all kinds...but there are ways to cut down on nuclear waste.

I don't see Nukes as having much future development.  They cost too much in resources to build and maintain.  Lead time on getting a Nuke plant up and running is a Decade or so.  In a decade, we will be well into the sewer of Collapse.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #936 on: January 21, 2020, 08:43:01 AM »
I don't  think we beat climate change....but nuke energy is definitely a way delay the inevitable, and it probably will gain more proponents. I don't see the Russians as having solved the issues......they're the poster child for environmental disasters of all kinds...but there are ways to cut down on nuclear waste.

I don't see Nukes as having much future development.  They cost too much in resources to build and maintain.  Lead time on getting a Nuke plant up and running is a Decade or so.  In a decade, we will be well into the sewer of Collapse.

RE

[France derives about 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy, due to a long-standing policy based on energy security. Government policy is to reduce this to 50% by 2035. France is the world's largest net exporter of electricity due to its very low cost of generation, and gains over €3 billion per year from this./color]

My guess is it can be ramped up fast in a real crisis. And it exists already in some places.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #937 on: January 21, 2020, 08:53:25 AM »
In a rapidly warming climate with loss of fisheries and other natural sources of food, survival will be directly related to the ability for humansto modify the indoor environment to live and grow food. I'm not sure how good we could get at that, but I know energy is the key, if if can be done at all.

Loss of other species might doom us anyway.

If thorium can be ramped up it might make a huge difference. If not, we can still use uranium with all its downside. If the alternative is death in the very short term the bad stuff about nukes starts to look less important.

I think fusion is a pipe dream.

But nukes are going to matter, I think.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #938 on: January 21, 2020, 08:59:00 AM »
In a rapidly warming climate with loss of fisheries and other natural sources of food, survival will be directly related to the ability for humansto modify the indoor environment to live and grow food. I'm not sure how good we could get at that, but I know energy is the key, if if can be done at all.

Loss of other species might doom us anyway.

If thorium can be ramped up it might make a huge difference. If not, we can still use uranium with all its downside. If the alternative is death in the very short term the bad stuff about nukes starts to look less important.

I think fusion is a pipe dream.

But nukes are going to matter, I think.

Thorium IMHO is as much a pipe dream as Fusion.  The technology behind it has been known for a long time, yet no commercially profitable plants have been built.  It's a non-starter.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #939 on: January 21, 2020, 09:56:27 AM »
We'll see about thorium. Lots of work being done on it, mostly outside the US. It was passed over here because the US wanted missiles and went for the fast breeder reactors for the wrong reasons. The American guy who was the recent proponent kind of disappeared,,,,,some people think the USMIC has him working on it for the military, which is believable to me.

Even without that, other countries use nuclear power that pollutes less than the fast breeder reactors we mostly still have here (and wherever the US built the plants.)

None of that impacts climate change much, which the deniers still don't seem fo get, or don't want to get. But power matters more than anything as far as adapting to climate change.

« Last Edit: January 21, 2020, 10:35:53 AM by Eddie »
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Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #940 on: January 21, 2020, 10:13:05 AM »
We'll see about thorium. Lots of work being done on it, mostly outside the US. It was passed over here because the US wanted missiles and went for the fast breeder reactors for the wrong reasons. The American guy who was the recent proponent kind of disappeared,,,,,some people think the USMIC has him working on it for the military, which is believable to me.

Even without that, other countries use nuclear power that pollutes less than the fast breeder reactors we mostly still have here (and wherever the US built the plants.)

None of that impacts climate change much, which the deniers still don't see fo get, or don't want to get. But power matters more than anything as far as adapting to climate change.

Time will tell.

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #941 on: January 21, 2020, 01:44:46 PM »
In a rapidly warming climate with loss of fisheries and other natural sources of food, survival will be directly related to the ability for humansto modify the indoor environment to live and grow food. I'm not sure how good we could get at that, but I know energy is the key, if if can be done at all.

Loss of other species might doom us anyway.

If thorium can be ramped up it might make a huge difference. If not, we can still use uranium with all its downside. If the alternative is death in the very short term the bad stuff about nukes starts to look less important.

I think fusion is a pipe dream.

But nukes are going to matter, I think.

Thorium IMHO is as much a pipe dream as Fusion.  The technology behind it has been known for a long time, yet no commercially profitable plants have been built.  It's a non-starter.

RE

Why is that, Mr.Science? I remember hearing an awful lot about thorium about five-six years ago, then nothing. there was going to be a small reactor in every neighborhood. Huzzah!
then nothing.

I wonder why.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #942 on: January 21, 2020, 03:51:57 PM »
In a rapidly warming climate with loss of fisheries and other natural sources of food, survival will be directly related to the ability for humansto modify the indoor environment to live and grow food. I'm not sure how good we could get at that, but I know energy is the key, if if can be done at all.

Loss of other species might doom us anyway.

If thorium can be ramped up it might make a huge difference. If not, we can still use uranium with all its downside. If the alternative is death in the very short term the bad stuff about nukes starts to look less important.

I think fusion is a pipe dream.

But nukes are going to matter, I think.

Thorium IMHO is as much a pipe dream as Fusion.  The technology behind it has been known for a long time, yet no commercially profitable plants have been built.  It's a non-starter.

RE

Why is that, Mr.Science? I remember hearing an awful lot about thorium about five-six years ago, then nothing. there was going to be a small reactor in every neighborhood. Huzzah!
then nothing.

I wonder why.

The Thorium Reactor technology as I understand it uses a Molten Salt for the Fission process.  (caveat: my knowledge of this tech is not that extensive though.  I haven't done that much research on it because I think it is still more rainbow shitting unicorns and spending my time researching unicorn shit is not what I want to do with my time.)  I would expect this is extremely corrosive stuff, and so putting together a reactor that could handle that and last for any reasonable amount of time would be extraordinarily expensive.  Small test reactors have been built, but nothing commercial size as of yet, not even by the fucking Chinese, who as you know waste enormous amount of debt money and resources on stuff like Ghost Cities.

I doubt you will ever see one built in the FSoA, even to power Billionaire Bunkers.

RE
« Last Edit: January 21, 2020, 04:24:44 PM by RE »
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Offline RE

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🛢️ OPEC+ Struggles With Oil’s Fast And Furious Fall
« Reply #943 on: February 05, 2020, 01:44:28 AM »
Who cooda node?  ???   :icon_scratch:   ::)

RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Struggles-With-Oils-Fast-And-Furious-Fall.html#

OPEC+ Struggles With Oil’s Fast And Furious Fall
By Irina Slav - Feb 04, 2020, 9:31 AM CST


OPEC+ is meeting urgently to discuss moves in the face of an inexorable slide in oil prices that has brought Brent crude far below $60 a barrel and that saw West Texas Intermediate dip below $50 this week.
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“Given oil’s fast and furious fall -- and the havoc that it could wreak on government finances across the producer group -- it looks like they don’t believe they have the luxury of time,” RBC Capital’s Helima Croft said as quoted by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg earlier reported, citing oil industry insiders, that demand in China could slump by as much as 20 percent because of the coronvarius outbreak. Due to the extensive travel restrictions and factory activity stalling, this 20-percent plunge in oil demand would be equal to around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) and this would make it the most sudden shock to global oil demand since 9/11, according to Bloomberg.

The coronavirus has claimed more than 360 lives, which has made it more deadly than the SARS epidemic from 2003. The outbreak is also close to being declared a pandemic, which won’t help oil prices either.

OPEC+ was already struggling with prices before the virus outbreak but now the situation looks a lot gloomier. There is precious little the cartel could do except deepen the oil production cuts further. Yet some would say Saudi Arabia, at least, is already cutting to the bone. Further cuts are bound to affect revenues negatively while they will not necessarily affect prices positively.

In fact, there is a solid chance they won’t affect prices much at all. The Libyan oil terminal blockade should have boosted prices considerably, with the production outage now having taken 1 million bpd off the market. Yet it has not. Neither have the otherwise bullish events that came before the blockade, notably the spike in U.S.-Iran tensions at the start of the year, which pushed prices up only for a short while before they retreated.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Offline RE

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🛢️ Europe Has a $130 Billion Natural Gas Problem
« Reply #944 on: February 06, 2020, 04:21:26 AM »
https://earther.gizmodo.com/europe-has-a-130-billion-natural-gas-problem-1841448077


Europe Has a $130 Billion Natural Gas Problem



Photo: Getty

In 2019, the U.S. began officially pulling out of the Paris Agreement, rolled back tons of important climate legislation, and expanded fossil fuel infrastructure. Meanwhile last fall, Germany committed to reaching net-zero by 2050 late last month. And last month, the UK’s oil and gas industry committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, too.

Doesn’t that make you want to escape this hellscape and book a one-way ticket to London or Munich to sip tea and bask in the glow of just environmental policy? Well, maybe don’t just yet. It turns out Europe is fucking up, too.

New research from the Global Energy Monitor released Tuesday shows that European countries are planning to invest almost $130 billion of private and public funds into new gas-fired power plants, liquefied natural gas import terminals, and gas pipelines routed from Russia, Turkmenistan, and Israel. All that new infrastructure would give Europe the capacity to import 30 percent more natural gas that will in turn fuel the climate crisis.
Could We Have a Global Green New Deal?

The U.S. is screwing up its climate targets, but it’s far from the only country doing so. This…
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The European move to import gas at a time when fossil fuel has to be cut is due in part to falling demand in Japan and South Korea. Demand is also rising slower expected in China, and Europe is taking in more of the gas those other countries don’t want. Last year, the continent imported 85 million tons of gas, more gas than ever before.

The new report shows the EU already has the capacity to bring in almost twice as much gas as it uses. So why expand gas infrastructure if they’re already oversupplied? The report says it’s because industry representatives with the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG)—a trade group of pipeline and gas companies—are leading gas infrastructure planning.

“To say that the legacy industry influences the process is actually an understatement,” Ted Nace, the Global Energy Monitor’s Founder and Executive Director, told Earther in an email. The legacy industry directs the process.”

Nearly $40 billion or a whopping third of the planned investments in new natural gas infrastructure is earmarked from gas expansion plans in the UK and Germany alone. So much for reaching net-zero emissions! Greece, Poland, Romania, and Italy are also all expanding their gas infrastructure substantially.

This couldn’t be coming at a worse time. Fossil gas infrastructure can have a lifespan of over 40 years, which means that investing in new fossil gas infrastructure today could lock Europe into using more of it for decades. Scientists have made it clear that we can’t keep expanding fossil fuel infrastructure—in fact, we need to start shutting it down and replacing it with non-polluting energy quickly. Locking into more gas infrastructure would make that impossible.

“In order to arrive at net zero emissions by mid-century, Europe needs to invest in a new energy system that uses combinations of renewable generated power, battery storage, and demand side management, rather than generating power from gas,” said Nace.

Unfortunately, this gas infrastructure expansion is part of a global trend. More natural gas is being extracted, which is making it cheaper and more accessible. Last year, gas was the primary driver of global carbon emissions growth, according to the Global Carbon Project.

“Natural gas usage has surged, with an attendant 2.6 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions for 2019,” Rob Jackson, a Stanford University professor and Global Carbon Project researcher, said in a statement in December. “In fact, rising natural gas use accounts for 60 percent of fossil emissions growth in recent years.”

And carbon dioxide emissions aren’t the only problem. Natural gas processing and transportation also leaks methane, a greenhouse gas that’s about 120 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term.

It’s not too late to stop most of this infrastructure from being built, though. Construction has started on less than 10 percent of the proposed liquified natural gas import terminals. Ditto for many of the proposed European pipelines.

“It’s clear that we need to reexamine new investments in fossil fuels like gas, both to save on billions of future stranded assets as well as to ensure that clean energy gets the financing it needs in order to meet our climate objectives,” said Nace.
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