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Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #975 on: March 19, 2020, 06:57:48 AM »
That said...


He, RE, can I write a Diner blog post for ya, about Middle Term Contingency Planning for possible / probable catastrophic economic collapse?

I'll write it today and send it your way with your nod.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #976 on: March 19, 2020, 07:00:46 AM »
I'm missing the Diner of olde, in which there were not just the sharing of snippets of info and a comment or two following these, but there was an actual discussion on the possible implications.  I was hoping the olde Diner still existed during this pandemic, which is why I returned here aver a long hiatus.

I want to listen in -- and participate -- in conversation about the causes and implications of all of these enormous events, how they fit together. I'm here to learn and explore, not just check the news.  Help me out here?

I dropped two original articles here yesterday. Why don't your write something about PO, if you're interested?  The rest of us understand that the equation is simple.

At these prices most oil producers go broke. The Saudi Crown Prince has more money than God, and he can afford to flood the market with cheap oil for a while, to see if he can kill all the competition. In the long run, he has a problem (Saudi oil is finite), but he has the shekels, for the moment.

Putin also has lots of leeway in being able to ride out a price war.

American shale oil frackers are kaput at these prices...unless the government bails them out......which is the next thing...it will happen.

Mornin' Eddie.  Yes, of course I see these obvious implications.  When you say, "The rest of us understand that the equation is simple," you seem to be dismissing me as ignorant.  But what I'm interested in is not what you say, but what the implications of what you say are likely to be, and the dialogue which would ensue were we to actually discuss THOSE implications.

Mostly, I'm interested in knowing what the probability of a radical and rapid collapse of the global financial system may be, so I can put some sort of a handle on what I might do as a community activist who has decided to stay in my little city and not flee it for a cave in the wilderness.  Are we now in the next Great Depression, as it seems to me? Only worse than the last one.  It helps to discuss these sorts of questions, rather than going out on a limb all on one's own.  After all, I'm going to be playing an advisory role in my local community. I had better not get it too wrong, either direction, either in the direction of inadequate response or an overblown one. But I like to err on the side of safety, of course!

Not trying to bust your chops, my brother, but you seem to spend half your time predicting the mother of all collapses  and then the rest asking  questions nobody knows the answers to.

I personally doubt this is the TEOTWAWKI you're looking for.......but it COULD be, if the leadership continues to flounder. I think the response is getting better.....but this is likely to drag out for some time. TIME is what matters. Time off work for working people. Time for the virus to work its way through the entirety of humanity.....or to mutate into something less scary, which is possible.....or for an effective medical solution to emerge, which is very possible.

If....if a CURE  happens, the markets will blast off for the moon. Please understand that people with money to burn are buying stocks at these prices.....just remember, for every panic seller there is a patient buyer looking to arbitrage tragedy into a few billion bucks. This is the very kind of scenario that made George Soros's bones.

I'm wondering where all the Dollar Collapse crowd went. Fucking morons.

Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM
Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 07:06:18 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #977 on: March 19, 2020, 07:11:24 AM »
I'm missing the Diner of olde, in which there were not just the sharing of snippets of info and a comment or two following these, but there was an actual discussion on the possible implications.  I was hoping the olde Diner still existed during this pandemic, which is why I returned here aver a long hiatus.

I want to listen in -- and participate -- in conversation about the causes and implications of all of these enormous events, how they fit together. I'm here to learn and explore, not just check the news.  Help me out here?

Well hang on and strap in. You never know what blog post or news article is going to spark that sort of discussion, and they do still happen. What you are seeing now is the Forum being peppered with what are, in effect, dispatches from the front. The "first draft of history," if you will. As I wrote elsewhere, "this is either the BIG ONE or it is NOT the BIG ONE." But it's pretty fucking big, as plagues go. Big enough to bring the world economy to its knees.

There is so much to learn and react to in the course of a day. One of the things I rely upon is that  group of people from all over with different foci and POVs post things here which in many cases I would not otherwise see. And I see a LOT in the course of the day.

We've already got plague and locusts; I'm waiting for frogs and boils as well.

I hear ya.

Dude, I'm way out ahead of most folks. Way out ahead in the sense of trying to know how to prepare the lifeboats,  how many lifeboats to prepare, and that sort of thing.

I feel as if I'm on the Titanic and we have hit an iceberg and ripped a hole in the hull.  Now I'm a farking Casandra insisting that we all prepare for the middle term of this. The short term preparations are made well enough. We can't really fully perceive what the long term asks of us, exactly. But when it comes to middle term contingency planning and the dialogue about that I'm hearing mostly crickets.  It's lonely where I am.

PREP UP!

If you can make it through the next 3 years alive, you will be one of the few left standing and then you can worry about what the "middle term" will look like.

I personally can probably last 3-4 years without ever stepping outside the digs, long as the electrics work, the gas gets to the stove, the water flows out of the faucets and the heating system keeps working (I have a brand spanking new boiler  :icon_sunny: )  I have backups for all of those also that will last months.

RE
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Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #978 on: March 19, 2020, 07:19:48 AM »
I'm missing the Diner of olde, in which there were not just the sharing of snippets of info and a comment or two following these, but there was an actual discussion on the possible implications.  I was hoping the olde Diner still existed during this pandemic, which is why I returned here aver a long hiatus.

I want to listen in -- and participate -- in conversation about the causes and implications of all of these enormous events, how they fit together. I'm here to learn and explore, not just check the news.  Help me out here?

I dropped two original articles here yesterday. Why don't your write something about PO, if you're interested?  The rest of us understand that the equation is simple.

At these prices most oil producers go broke. The Saudi Crown Prince has more money than God, and he can afford to flood the market with cheap oil for a while, to see if he can kill all the competition. In the long run, he has a problem (Saudi oil is finite), but he has the shekels, for the moment.

Putin also has lots of leeway in being able to ride out a price war.

American shale oil frackers are kaput at these prices...unless the government bails them out......which is the next thing...it will happen.

Mornin' Eddie.  Yes, of course I see these obvious implications.  When you say, "The rest of us understand that the equation is simple," you seem to be dismissing me as ignorant.  But what I'm interested in is not what you say, but what the implications of what you say are likely to be, and the dialogue which would ensue were we to actually discuss THOSE implications.

Mostly, I'm interested in knowing what the probability of a radical and rapid collapse of the global financial system may be, so I can put some sort of a handle on what I might do as a community activist who has decided to stay in my little city and not flee it for a cave in the wilderness.  Are we now in the next Great Depression, as it seems to me? Only worse than the last one.  It helps to discuss these sorts of questions, rather than going out on a limb all on one's own.  After all, I'm going to be playing an advisory role in my local community. I had better not get it too wrong, either direction, either in the direction of inadequate response or an overblown one. But I like to err on the side of safety, of course!

Not trying to bust your chops, my brother, but you seem to spend half your time predicting the mother of all collapses  and then the rest asking  questions nobody knows the answers to.

I personally doubt this is the TEOTWAWKI you're looking for.......but it COULD be, if the leadership continues to flounder. I think the response is getting better.....but this is likely to drag out for some time. TIME is what matters. Time off work for working people. Time for the virus to work its way through the entirety of humanity.....or to mutate into something less scary, which is possible.....or for an effective medical solution to emerge, which is very possible.

If....if a CURE  happens, the markets will blast off for the moon. Please understand that people with money to burn are buying stocks at these prices.....just remember, for every panic seller there is a patient buyer looking to arbitrage tragedy into a few billion bucks. This is the very kind of scenario that made George Soros's bones.

I'm wondering where all the Dollar Collapse crowd went. Fucking morons.

Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM
Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM

Okay, now we're getting somewhere I wanted to go! We're beginning to create a dialogue space by defining it, however vaguely. 

The key word you're offering is UNCERTAINTY.  Uncertainty about how deep (bad) and enduring the financial / economic / employment (etc.) crisis will go (plummet).  I get that!

Some folks (not in the Diner) have said to me that this thing will blow over in a few weeks.  My gut instinct is that the mode and structure of the dominant global economy upon which most of us are utterly depending for our most basic needs is so absurdly fragile that all it would have needed is a shock a fifth as big as this one to send it flying off a cliff and crashing like a piano at the bottom.

You see this gap?!?  How can we do contingency planning and action in such an atmosphere as this -- with the operative word being "we"?  We are neighborhoods, towns and cities, mostly.  Those who frame the "we" as something as vast as the USA, or Texas, even, seem to be missing the scale at which the most effective responses can happen if this farking piano crashes at the bottom of the cliff.

I do not expect things to go at all well. But they can go a lot better if we -- communities -- prepare for some of the worst case scenarios immediately.

By the way, when I told Surly that I was "ahead of" most others in grasping our situation, I did not mean most others in the Diner.  I meant folks like those I spoke with at my local grocery store yesterday, who thought this whole thing would blow over in a few weeks. That seems plain stupid to me!  Economies can't be readily "re-started" when they have been shut down for a few weeks. I suppose we all here in the Diner understand this.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #979 on: March 19, 2020, 07:24:37 AM »

Okay, now we're getting somewhere I wanted to go! We're beginning to create a dialogue space by defining it, however vaguely. 

The key word you're offering is UNCERTAINTY.  Uncertainty about how deep (bad) and enduring the financial / economic / employment (etc.) crisis will go (plummet).  I get that!

Some folks (not in the Diner) have said to me that this thing will blow over in a few weeks.  My gut instinct is that the mode and structure of the dominant global economy upon which most of us are utterly depending for our most basic needs is so absurdly fragile that all it would have needed is a shock a fifth as big as this one to send it flying off a cliff and crashing like a piano at the bottom.

You see this gap?!?  How can we do contingency planning and action in such an atmosphere as this -- with the operative word being "we"?  We are neighborhoods, towns and cities, mostly.  Those who frame the "we" as something as vast as the USA, or Texas, even, seem to be missing the scale at which the most effective responses can happen if this farking piano crashes at the bottom of the cliff.

I do not expect things to go at all well. But they can go a lot better if we -- communities -- prepare for some of the worst case scenarios immediately.

By the way, when I told Surly that I was "ahead of" most others in grasping our situation, I did not mean most others in the Diner.  I meant folks like those I spoke with at my local grocery store yesterday, who thought this whole thing would blow over in a few weeks. That seems plain stupid to me!  Economies can't be readily "re-started" when they have been shut down for a few weeks. I suppose we all here in the Diner understand this.

George Mobus writes about this specifically in his Spring Equinox Blog I published today.  It was also a major part of our conversation with Ugo Bardi and K-Dog.  Did you watch the video?

RE
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Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #980 on: March 19, 2020, 07:28:55 AM »
I need to become a lot better at articulating WHY modern economies which shut down temporarily cannot readily be simply started back up again as soon as the triggering event has passed (e.g., a pandemic).  Because I'll be playing a very real and important role in my community by helping organize a decentralized network of communications and organizing around stuff like food security in the face of a possible deep dive economic crash.

I'm reaching out for help with this. I have the intuitive feel part of it in spades. But to be persuasive I have to understand more of the actual nitty-gritty mechanics of the argument / explanation.

To me, folks who think we can simply re-start a deeply stalled economy like the one we're in now, which will be much more deeply stalled very soon, as if it were a lawn mower or a motorcycle, are just not understanding the mechanics of this quasi-machine.  How do I explain this to those folks who think we can simply push a button called "re-start" in a few weeks?
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #981 on: March 19, 2020, 07:32:49 AM »

Okay, now we're getting somewhere I wanted to go! We're beginning to create a dialogue space by defining it, however vaguely. 

The key word you're offering is UNCERTAINTY.  Uncertainty about how deep (bad) and enduring the financial / economic / employment (etc.) crisis will go (plummet).  I get that!

Some folks (not in the Diner) have said to me that this thing will blow over in a few weeks.  My gut instinct is that the mode and structure of the dominant global economy upon which most of us are utterly depending for our most basic needs is so absurdly fragile that all it would have needed is a shock a fifth as big as this one to send it flying off a cliff and crashing like a piano at the bottom.

You see this gap?!?  How can we do contingency planning and action in such an atmosphere as this -- with the operative word being "we"?  We are neighborhoods, towns and cities, mostly.  Those who frame the "we" as something as vast as the USA, or Texas, even, seem to be missing the scale at which the most effective responses can happen if this farking piano crashes at the bottom of the cliff.

I do not expect things to go at all well. But they can go a lot better if we -- communities -- prepare for some of the worst case scenarios immediately.

By the way, when I told Surly that I was "ahead of" most others in grasping our situation, I did not mean most others in the Diner.  I meant folks like those I spoke with at my local grocery store yesterday, who thought this whole thing would blow over in a few weeks. That seems plain stupid to me!  Economies can't be readily "re-started" when they have been shut down for a few weeks. I suppose we all here in the Diner understand this.

George Mobus writes about this specifically in his Spring Equinox Blog I published today.  It was also a major part of our conversation with Ugo Bardi and K-Dog.  Did you watch the video?

RE


I began watching it.  Nothing personal here, friend, but I got antsy when it started out with talk about pizza and wine and beer. I thought I'd maybe come back to it and see if I could skip the small talk later.  (Small talk is fine. No problem with it under normal circumstances, but in my neighborhood there are things on fire. It's an emergency. We're in the habit of getting to the point pretty quickly these days.)
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #982 on: March 19, 2020, 07:47:51 AM »
Being the eternal pessimist who is ALWAYS disappointed by human nature, our fearless leaders, and the lack of common sense in the general population of this country.....I never expect for people to do the right thing until ALL other possibilities have been eliminated.. So I expect most people to do as much panic buying of everything they think they need to ride out a month or so of deprivation and being shut in....and nt much else, until the supplies run out and the rent is due.....and since the government is already mandating a moratorium on evictions, most of them won't worry about next months rent until that changes.

At some point soon  the money will dry up and the stores will have plenty of TP and staples and few buyers......until the helicopter money comes....and if it doesn't come quick the people who are happily off work this week will be angry and ready to blame somebody for their hardship.

I see gardens as something that will get much more popular as people start to be hungry.  and unfortunately it takes a couple of months to get much out of a garden.

I will be revisiting my mothballed row crop farming equipment.....buying a new battery for my tractor and maybe getting the oil changed in that. And also looking at my mothballed aquaculture stuff that I built and never got going.  I might plant some corn in case I need to feed out a pig. Maybe plant a bean field. I wish I had finished my fences.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #983 on: March 19, 2020, 07:50:20 AM »

Okay, now we're getting somewhere I wanted to go! We're beginning to create a dialogue space by defining it, however vaguely. 

The key word you're offering is UNCERTAINTY.  Uncertainty about how deep (bad) and enduring the financial / economic / employment (etc.) crisis will go (plummet).  I get that!

Some folks (not in the Diner) have said to me that this thing will blow over in a few weeks.  My gut instinct is that the mode and structure of the dominant global economy upon which most of us are utterly depending for our most basic needs is so absurdly fragile that all it would have needed is a shock a fifth as big as this one to send it flying off a cliff and crashing like a piano at the bottom.

You see this gap?!?  How can we do contingency planning and action in such an atmosphere as this -- with the operative word being "we"?  We are neighborhoods, towns and cities, mostly.  Those who frame the "we" as something as vast as the USA, or Texas, even, seem to be missing the scale at which the most effective responses can happen if this farking piano crashes at the bottom of the cliff.

I do not expect things to go at all well. But they can go a lot better if we -- communities -- prepare for some of the worst case scenarios immediately.

By the way, when I told Surly that I was "ahead of" most others in grasping our situation, I did not mean most others in the Diner.  I meant folks like those I spoke with at my local grocery store yesterday, who thought this whole thing would blow over in a few weeks. That seems plain stupid to me!  Economies can't be readily "re-started" when they have been shut down for a few weeks. I suppose we all here in the Diner understand this.

George Mobus writes about this specifically in his Spring Equinox Blog I published today.  It was also a major part of our conversation with Ugo Bardi and K-Dog.  Did you watch the video?

RE


I began watching it.  Nothing personal here, friend, but I got antsy when it started out with talk about pizza and wine and beer. I thought I'd maybe come back to it and see if I could skip the small talk later.  (Small talk is fine. No problem with it under normal circumstances, but in my neighborhood there are things on fire. It's an emergency. We're in the habit of getting to the point pretty quickly these days.)

Oh good grief.  Just hit the slider at the bottom and fast forward to where we get into the topics if you are not into food.  It's not rocket science.

Introductions to the participants and then the substantive discussion begins 4:00 minutes in.

RE
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Online Nearingsfault

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #984 on: March 19, 2020, 07:53:31 AM »
I'm missing the Diner of olde, in which there were not just the sharing of snippets of info and a comment or two following these, but there was an actual discussion on the possible implications.  I was hoping the olde Diner still existed during this pandemic, which is why I returned here aver a long hiatus.

I want to listen in -- and participate -- in conversation about the causes and implications of all of these enormous events, how they fit together. I'm here to learn and explore, not just check the news.  Help me out here?

I dropped two original articles here yesterday. Why don't your write something about PO, if you're interested?  The rest of us understand that the equation is simple.

At these prices most oil producers go broke. The Saudi Crown Prince has more money than God, and he can afford to flood the market with cheap oil for a while, to see if he can kill all the competition. In the long run, he has a problem (Saudi oil is finite), but he has the shekels, for the moment.

Putin also has lots of leeway in being able to ride out a price war.

American shale oil frackers are kaput at these prices...unless the government bails them out......which is the next thing...it will happen.

Mornin' Eddie.  Yes, of course I see these obvious implications.  When you say, "The rest of us understand that the equation is simple," you seem to be dismissing me as ignorant.  But what I'm interested in is not what you say, but what the implications of what you say are likely to be, and the dialogue which would ensue were we to actually discuss THOSE implications.

Mostly, I'm interested in knowing what the probability of a radical and rapid collapse of the global financial system may be, so I can put some sort of a handle on what I might do as a community activist who has decided to stay in my little city and not flee it for a cave in the wilderness.  Are we now in the next Great Depression, as it seems to me? Only worse than the last one.  It helps to discuss these sorts of questions, rather than going out on a limb all on one's own.  After all, I'm going to be playing an advisory role in my local community. I had better not get it too wrong, either direction, either in the direction of inadequate response or an overblown one. But I like to err on the side of safety, of course!

Not trying to bust your chops, my brother, but you seem to spend half your time predicting the mother of all collapses  and then the rest asking  questions nobody knows the answers to.

I personally doubt this is the TEOTWAWKI you're looking for.......but it COULD be, if the leadership continues to flounder. I think the response is getting better.....but this is likely to drag out for some time. TIME is what matters. Time off work for working people. Time for the virus to work its way through the entirety of humanity.....or to mutate into something less scary, which is possible.....or for an effective medical solution to emerge, which is very possible.

If....if a CURE  happens, the markets will blast off for the moon. Please understand that people with money to burn are buying stocks at these prices.....just remember, for every panic seller there is a patient buyer looking to arbitrage tragedy into a few billion bucks. This is the very kind of scenario that made George Soros's bones.

I'm wondering where all the Dollar Collapse crowd went. Fucking morons.

Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM
Screen Shot 2020 03 19 at 8 59 43 AM
I'm trying to balance my fear with a view to the future. Soon... still too early. I'll probably miss the bottom like most amateurs.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #985 on: March 19, 2020, 08:09:47 AM »

Okay, now we're getting somewhere I wanted to go! We're beginning to create a dialogue space by defining it, however vaguely. 

The key word you're offering is UNCERTAINTY.  Uncertainty about how deep (bad) and enduring the financial / economic / employment (etc.) crisis will go (plummet).  I get that!

Some folks (not in the Diner) have said to me that this thing will blow over in a few weeks.  My gut instinct is that the mode and structure of the dominant global economy upon which most of us are utterly depending for our most basic needs is so absurdly fragile that all it would have needed is a shock a fifth as big as this one to send it flying off a cliff and crashing like a piano at the bottom.

You see this gap?!?  How can we do contingency planning and action in such an atmosphere as this -- with the operative word being "we"?  We are neighborhoods, towns and cities, mostly.  Those who frame the "we" as something as vast as the USA, or Texas, even, seem to be missing the scale at which the most effective responses can happen if this farking piano crashes at the bottom of the cliff.

I do not expect things to go at all well. But they can go a lot better if we -- communities -- prepare for some of the worst case scenarios immediately.

By the way, when I told Surly that I was "ahead of" most others in grasping our situation, I did not mean most others in the Diner.  I meant folks like those I spoke with at my local grocery store yesterday, who thought this whole thing would blow over in a few weeks. That seems plain stupid to me!  Economies can't be readily "re-started" when they have been shut down for a few weeks. I suppose we all here in the Diner understand this.

George Mobus writes about this specifically in his Spring Equinox Blog I published today.  It was also a major part of our conversation with Ugo Bardi and K-Dog.  Did you watch the video?

RE


I began watching it.  Nothing personal here, friend, but I got antsy when it started out with talk about pizza and wine and beer. I thought I'd maybe come back to it and see if I could skip the small talk later.  (Small talk is fine. No problem with it under normal circumstances, but in my neighborhood there are things on fire. It's an emergency. We're in the habit of getting to the point pretty quickly these days.)

Oh good grief.  Just hit the slider at the bottom and fast forward to where we get into the topics if you are not into food.  It's not rocket science.

Introductions to the participants and then the substantive discussion begins 4:00 minutes in.

RE

You're right, of course. I was very impatient. And I did assume you'd get to the real meat soon enough. But, as I said, I'm impatient. I'm applying the sort of community oriented meta-cognition --  and dreaming of a contingency flow chart -- of the sort Eddie alludes to a need for in his last post here.  I'm damned impatient, 'cause I've been seeing the plain stupidity of our social systems which Eddie is talking about.  It's farking maddening! The MSM and its political system aren't even close to being ready for any of what's about to clobber us.  Hardly anyone is reaching the public with a contingency flow chart because they are waiting for the governments to save us, and they almost certainly will not / cannot.

I'm asking what we do when Plan A fails. I'm past the "if" question, mostly, though I acknowledge that it may possibly work -- but with poor betting odds.  Plan B can't simply be one in which we address this atomistically as individuals and families. We have a huge SCALE problem.  Local communities need to play a major role which, as of yet, they are not. As Eddie implies or says outright.

I worry about what happens in July and August when -- likely -- our food delivery systems have failed.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #986 on: March 19, 2020, 08:19:50 AM »
@DB

Definitely too early. You don't have to have your finger on the trigger. I won't be going back into stocks anyway (too old) but there will be a possible opportunity.

Demographics is the problem for the long term market in equites. Too many Boomer sellers on the horizon.
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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #987 on: March 19, 2020, 08:49:31 AM »
@DB

Definitely too early. You don't have to have your finger on the trigger. I won't be going back into stocks anyway (too old) but there will be a possible opportunity.

Demographics is the problem for the long term market in equites. Too many Boomer sellers on the horizon.
thank you...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #988 on: March 19, 2020, 09:10:25 AM »

You're right, of course. I was very impatient. And I did assume you'd get to the real meat soon enough. But, as I said, I'm impatient. I'm applying the sort of community oriented meta-cognition --  and dreaming of a contingency flow chart -- of the sort Eddie alludes to a need for in his last post here.  I'm damned impatient, 'cause I've been seeing the plain stupidity of our social systems which Eddie is talking about.  It's farking maddening! The MSM and its political system aren't even close to being ready for any of what's about to clobber us.  Hardly anyone is reaching the public with a contingency flow chart because they are waiting for the governments to save us, and they almost certainly will not / cannot.

I'm asking what we do when Plan A fails. I'm past the "if" question, mostly, though I acknowledge that it may possibly work -- but with poor betting odds.  Plan B can't simply be one in which we address this atomistically as individuals and families. We have a huge SCALE problem.  Local communities need to play a major role which, as of yet, they are not. As Eddie implies or says outright.

I worry about what happens in July and August when -- likely -- our food delivery systems have failed.

Fast Forward Sliders are for the Impatient people of the world.

When Plan A fails, you go to Plan B.  When that fails, Plan C.  Then you work through the alphabet until you get to Plan Z.

I go at least 4 deep on all my plans, which are for the things I have control over. The only thing you can count on with Da Gubermint is that what they do will fail, so you need to be as prepped as possible for that failure.

RE
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Offline JRM

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #989 on: March 19, 2020, 09:55:17 AM »


When Plan A fails, you go to Plan B.  When that fails, Plan C.  Then you work through the alphabet until you get to Plan Z.


What if initiating Plan B must begin before you can even KNOW if Plan A has failed or will fail, if Plan B is to succeed? As in the case of communities growing an emergency food supply in the case that Plan A fails.

Up there in Alaska you have a pretty short growing season, so I may not be making much sense to you. Also, you have abundant wildlife as a backup food supply -- but not everyone has that. And, in any case, folks will be needing to eat greens and such. Meat is not a complete diet.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 09:58:56 AM by JRM »
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

 

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