AuthorTopic: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?  (Read 124973 times)

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #105 on: August 06, 2015, 08:11:32 AM »
What does commodity deflation do? Does anyone here actually make their living as a commodities trader

This kind of comment is what really makes me scratch my head about you, MK.


Commodity deflation is a sure sign that the global growth engine has stalled. It's a leading indicator of a world wide economic depression ,that's all.

Other than that it's a positive sign, that we aren't burning through the resources quite as fast as we were five years ago. :)

It's like Chris Martenson said in that Paul Ehrlich video you didn't listen to....we need a new narrative. Because year-over-year growth might be good for banks and rich people's pocket books, but it's death for the planet and every living thing....so we need to change our outlook on growth.

Hardly Eddie, That just isn't so.

It could be supply increase due to the fracking boom.

It could be better utilization or conservation.

It is also important to view it in your particular fiat.

Oil isn't so cheap in Australia or Canada for example with their currency collapses of late.

There is also the constant reminders from agelbert of the massive inroads taking place benath the surface from renewables.

There is the possibility of a political economic plot from the Arabs to destroy the fracking industry.

Lots of others as well.

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #106 on: August 06, 2015, 08:15:51 AM »

Confucius Say, "A FOOL AND HIS GOLD ARE SOON PARTED."

RE Sez, if you sold your Gold today, within 6 months you could buy back minimum 20% more.

Got cojones to bet me on this one GO?

RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #107 on: August 06, 2015, 08:26:16 AM »

Confucius Say, "A FOOL AND HIS GOLD ARE SOON PARTED."

RE Sez, if you sold your Gold today, within 6 months you could buy back minimum 20% more.

Got cojones to bet me on this one GO?

RE

I have explained the difference between brains and balls to you already Nostradamus.


Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #108 on: August 06, 2015, 08:45:37 AM »

Confucius Say, "A FOOL AND HIS GOLD ARE SOON PARTED."

RE Sez, if you sold your Gold today, within 6 months you could buy back minimum 20% more.

Got cojones to bet me on this one GO?

RE

I have explained the difference between brains and balls to you already Nostradamus.

Your explanation has not indicated whether you will have more or less Gold in 6 months if you sell now and buy back later.  Please elucidate whether you could increased or decrease your Gold pile by selling now to buy back later.

RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Online Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #109 on: August 06, 2015, 09:26:09 AM »
Hardly Eddie, That just isn't so.

It sure appears that way to me. Time will tell, of course.

It is also important to view it in your particular fiat.

My particular fiat is acting much like it did in the early 1930's. Very similar trend actually.

Copper is a better commodity to watch than oil, imho.





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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #110 on: August 06, 2015, 11:35:11 AM »
Hardly Eddie, That just isn't so.

It sure appears that way to me. Time will tell, of course.

It is also important to view it in your particular fiat.

My particular fiat is acting much like it did in the early 1930's. Very similar trend actually.

Copper is a better commodity to watch than oil, imho.



As to oil prices Eddie looking at a chart of 1930 and today may bring surprising results to those not interested in facts or fundamental analysis as it's called

Annual production of automobiles dropped from the 1929 peak of about 5.3 million units in the U.S. in 1929 to just under 2.4 million in 1930. Britain, where automobiles remained a luxury item, surpassed France to become the world's second leading producer of automobiles--with 237,000 units. The French reported production of 230,000. The Japanese, a newcomer in the field of automobile production, reported a total production of 500 units in 1930. The world total production reached a figure just over 4.1 million units

Life expectancy for an the tires on a typical automobile had risen to 2 1/2 years.

Fuel consumption for automobiles in the U.S. averaged 599 gallons of gasoline per year


As to copper prices, extremely important indicator.

Some of us however have a more realistic point of reference time wise to declare it a deflationary bust just yet.

Different Chart, Different Picture.

                             


                                     

Online Eddie

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #111 on: August 06, 2015, 11:52:05 AM »
Earth to GO.

In recent years, the Chinese have poured more concrete each and every year than the US did in the entire 20th century. That's what drove the price of commodities up, and the absence of that is what's going to take it down...way down.

And our economy is not even deemed healthy unless we grow GDP 3% year-over-year. When we stop doing that, and GDP goes negative, things crash pretty fast.

Don't you believe what your highly regarded pundit Ms. Foss says? As far as i can tell, i haven't said a single thing she wouldn't agree with...

All signs point to stagnation, job loss, empty commercial space, more people obliged to seek a government handout, etc, etc., etc.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #112 on: August 06, 2015, 12:26:15 PM »
Earth to GO.

In recent years, the Chinese have poured more concrete each and every year than the US did in the entire 20th century. That's what drove the price of commodities up, and the absence of that is what's going to take it down...way down.

And our economy is not even deemed healthy unless we grow GDP 3% year-over-year. When we stop doing that, and GDP goes negative, things crash pretty fast.

Don't you believe what your highly regarded pundit Ms. Foss says? As far as i can tell, i haven't said a single thing she wouldn't agree with...

All signs point to stagnation, job loss, empty commercial space, more people obliged to seek a government handout, etc, etc., etc.

GO to Edward

All true. China has been in a boom of epic proportions for a few decades. Anyone who understands the nature of these things knows that they always reach certain physical limits where they correct in a nasty way with far reaching repercussions to the commodities used in this orgy of consumption.

Madam Foss is a brilliant lady whom I have the utmost admiration for. She has sung this tune for over a decade however, and finally got it right for now, much like another fortune teller I know. Predicting rain when the sun is out is not that difficult Eddie, and when it rains jumping up and down saying "I Told You So." You will kindly note Nicole has come out of hiding right after the Chinese Market Bust.  My posts on TAE have been mostly challenges to Ilargi and their THEORIES.
The fact I have keen respect for their views and intellect does not mean I buy their act in totality.

I'm with MKing on this one Eddie. Where is the DEFLATION, unless your an ass hole wall street blogger on the net. Find me a father with a wife and two or three children to bring up that sees it and we will discuss it.

Then there is the 750 grand you need to update your office, some deflation we are in Edward.

Copper I haven't been a buyer of lately, and my meager savings on gasoline purchases were heavily outweighed by my property tax increases and the price of food items lately, buy a VERY WIDE MARGIN.

The world  economy is in a funk Eddie, no doubt about it; lets not pronounce it about to expire just yet. Save that for the touts selling investment letters.

Earth back to Eddie

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #113 on: August 06, 2015, 01:27:00 PM »
RE Sez, if you sold your Gold today, within 6 months you could buy back minimum 20% more.
Here's the problem, RE, if you're dealing with physical gold....

I can absolutely guarantee you, that if I sold my gold coins today to the local dealer, and bought them back in 6 months, and the official price of gold had not changed 1 penny, I would have 20% less gold than today.  Because he buys them at 10% below spot and sells them at 10% above.  Could I find a better deal elsewhere? Sure, but then I have the cost of driving, or with mail-order the cost of shipping.

And that's not counting any taxes I might have to pay on capital gains.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline RE

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #114 on: August 06, 2015, 02:29:00 PM »
Just got off the headset chatting with Nicole and Ilargi for the last couple of hours.  The conversation was hilarious at points, but sadly I will have to cut out most of the really funny stuff.  Not for public consumption.  LOL.

It's going to be really hard to do the audio edit on this one.  ::)

RE
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #115 on: August 06, 2015, 02:41:46 PM »
the problem is also nobody remembers the predictions u get right unless u only make right predictions. GO warned not to invest in chinese stock when it seemed very good yield right before it crashed because hes 2 steps ahead from experience. Its easy to say something going up will go further or something
going down will go further. Correctly calling in advance a top or bottom is a lot harder so Im giving RE a month extension on the las vegas lake.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #116 on: August 06, 2015, 02:56:33 PM »
Quote
Oil isn't so cheap in Australia or Canada for example with their currency collapses of late.

No currency collapse in Australia - it has been an engineered devaluation by the Reserve Bank, who were lucky enough to still have room to move official interest rates down - currently 2%.

TAPIS Crude in Singapore in US$ and AU$:





Of course the outlook isn't rosy, with iron ore, coal, gold, base metals all tanking, and export markets in China, Japan and South Korea all looking worse.  Indian company Adani just had a massive new coal mine in Australia knocked back by the courts after the Federal Government had given approvals.  Automobile manufacturing will be all gone by 2017.  The F-35 fighter/bomber contracts looking increasingly unaffordable, and submarine contracts likely to go offshore to Japan.
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #117 on: August 06, 2015, 03:28:15 PM »
Most posters here are locked into an ideological meme lense through which they view price action in regard to just about everything that has a price on it. In fact, the "carry capacity" worshipping segment of this crowd (you know who you are ;)) believe EVERYTHING has a carrying capacity/thermodynamics price on it. They don't DO ethics or CARING CAPACITY. They consider that a bit of benny fluff luxury afforded the predators that want to feel good about themselves, not a sine qua non requirement to avoid extinction (as I have repeatedly asserted).

Consequently, I mostly avoid banging my head against the Doomstead Diner Wall present in threads like this one.

But today I am in a good mood so I will provide you worthies with some advice that you can print on your toilet paper to your peril.  ;D

Why are people so ready to accept groundless assertions? For example, the entire academic community in this country had essentially written off Irish persecution in the USA as a myth just because some professor with no real evidence said it didn't happen.

And it was so EASILY REFUTED!

Keep questioning authority and orthodoxy about 'fossil fuels as our savior', thermodynamics, carrying capacity, commodity prices, 'clean energy will kill the economy', 'Renewable Energy is not practical due to low energy density', EROI, and situational ethics. 

ALL the above are presented as scientific objective truths when they are either bold faced lies or cherry picked science leaving out the entire truth. Know bullshit when you see it.  There is no reason you have to remain loyal to ideology that masquerades as objective truth.

Yes, of course those that will respond to this will undoubtedly claim I am the one locked in an ideological straight jacket denying the "scientific" carrying capacity and energy "truth".

For your sakes, I hope you are right.   8)

Have a nice day.


Quote
"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." -- Aldous Huxley

Quote
"Technical knowledge of Carrying Capacity will not save us; only a massive increase in Caring Capacity will." -- A. G. Gelbert

Quote
"We canít have a healthy business on a sick planet."-- Ashley Orgain, manager of mission advocacy and outreach for Seventh Generation, Burlington, Vermont

Quote
"We do not need a 'new' business model for energy because we never had one. What we need, if we wish to avoid extinction, is to plug the environmental and equity costs of energy production and use into our planning and thinking. " -- A.G. Gelbert
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 03:36:01 PM by agelbert »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #118 on: August 06, 2015, 04:07:27 PM »
Palloy,  73c aud vs usd is a currency collapse in progress. The drop in currency has followed the drop in interest rates. I wish they didn't  drop the rates. Also its moving in lockstep with cad. Your knowledge is good but u missed the live animal exports and wheat sugar etc lesser. The export of sheep and cows is massive,  millions of animals to middle east and asia. . not at all humane either. If it goes down to 60c vs usd u might see me dishevelled under an overpass with a sign saying DONT BE LIKE ME LISTEN TO GOLDEN OXEN 😂

When he tells u the price of petrol has not gone down at all lately listen to him.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 04:09:12 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline Mercury

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Re: Oil Price Crash: Who Cooda Node?
« Reply #119 on: August 06, 2015, 05:10:05 PM »
No deflation in things that matter. You know, unimportant stuff like food. Health care. Education for the kids. Housing costs.

What does commodity deflation do? Does anyone here actually make their living as a commodities trader (and even they can make money on movement in either direction)? GO is the probably the one person here horrified by how the strengthening US economy and dollar, the faux Chinese economy slowdown, is clobbering the fiat value of his favorite metal, but even that has an upside, GO can take his fiat earnings and buy MORE gold with it!

Thank you...
Do you know what 'Nemesis' means?

 

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