AuthorTopic: Big Slide v2.0 Begins  (Read 120022 times)

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #510 on: March 04, 2018, 08:48:38 PM »
The Re-localisation of economic activity callapsniks always talk about is getting quite a boost from the guy. We should thank him; 3 more years of this he could singlehandedly scuttle 50 years of hard work by the forces of free trade.

"Free Trade"  ::) hasn't exactly been great for either the FSoA OR the Great White North.  A bazillion jobs in both countries offshored to China and Mexico.  However, Trumpovetsky is definitely accelerating collapse dynamics.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Nearingsfault

  • Sous Chef
  • ****
  • Posts: 1052
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #511 on: March 04, 2018, 09:42:05 PM »
I think free trade's true accomplishment has been to lower the cost of goods which has allowed us all to go on a consumption feeding frenzy over the last 25 years propping up the system and keeping the game going. At the same time we can detach ourselves from miles travelled, work conditions in producing countries, energy efficiency of production and resulting polution. For Canada it's been a mixed experience probably neutral. It's hurt the low end just like the US and rewarded the middle to high end. What I really don't get is what the end goal is supposed to be. The us simply cannot provide itself with steel and aluminum it's no longer 1920 the population is much bigger the resources much more depleted it has to imported so now that costs you more... We shall see
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline g

  • Golden Oxen
  • Contrarian
  • Master Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 12280
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #512 on: March 05, 2018, 04:22:31 AM »
I agree it sounds unlikely according to what I've read this weekend. Foolish, shortsighted, and ultimately costly, but popular with Trump's troglodyte base.

A foolish and ridiculous idea, agreed. Trump is screwing up bad with this one. Have a sneaking idea Minuchin put this bug in his ear. He is a real dickhead.

Just two centavos from a trog that doesn't find it wise or popular.  ;D


                         


Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
🔻 Dow Futures Drop 420 Points, as Cohn Plans to Resign
« Reply #513 on: March 07, 2018, 12:12:58 AM »
I wonder if Gary Cohn is any relation to Roy Cohn, Joe McCarthy's lawyer and Trumpovetsky's mentor?  ???  :icon_scratch:

RE

Dow Futures Drop 420 Points, as Cohn Plans to Resign, Igniting Trade-War Fears

by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2018 • 49 Comments


The markets’ man in the White House is on the way out.


Roy Cohn with Don Trumpovetsky

It didn’t take long for the futures market to react. After it was reported Tuesday evening that Gary Cohn plans to resign, Dow futures plunged 410 points, or 1.7%, at the moment. He matters to Wall Street. As Director of the National Economic Council, he’s President Trump’s top economic adviser. He’s also a former Goldman Sachs executive and a free-trade Democrat.

He was one of the few remaining “globalists” in the White House. He’d opposed the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that Trump has been proposing and tweeting about since last week, including Trump’s now immortal “Trade wars are good” tweet on March 2:

    “When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”

And that philosophy is anathema to Cohn and the stock market. But he apparently has lost that battle. He is expected to leave over the next few weeks, joining the list of high-profile departures from the White House.

“According to people familiar with his thinking,” cited by the New York Times, there may have been many reasons, and “officials insisted there was no single factor behind the departure.” But in the end, the top item on the list was likely his fervent opposition to tariffs and trade wars. “Mr. Cohn, a longtime proponent of free trade, believed the decision could jeopardize economic growth,” the Times said.

Cohn is – or was – the markets’ guy in the White House. And now he’s on the way out.

Trump told the Times in a statement: “Gary has been my chief economic adviser and did a superb job in driving our agenda, helping to deliver historic tax cuts and reforms and unleashing the American economy once again. He is a rare talent, and I thank him for his dedicated service to the American people.”

According to the Times:

    White House officials said that Mr. Cohn was leaving on cordial terms with the president and that they planned to continue discussing policy even after his departure.

    People close to Mr. Cohn said that he had planned to stay for roughly a year, and that he had accomplished a number of things he cared about. That included the $1.5 trillion tax cut that Republicans passed last year.

So everything is hunky-dory and everyone is on best terms. And since Cohn is already wealthy and will likely slip right back through the revolving door on Wall Street into a top slot, he doesn’t even have to write a kiss-and-tell book, unlike so many others before him. And that must be a relief for the White House.

But markets are not happy. Dow futures are down 420 points at the moment, or 1.7%. S&P 500 futures are down 40 points, or 1.5%. Nasdaq futures are down 100 points or 1.5%. The Nikkei, minutes after opening in Tokyo, is down 180 points, or 0.8%.

The futures market is often enough no indicator of how stocks will be doing during regular trading hours. But it is an indication that the Tariff Tantrum has re-emerged with some magic up its sleeve.

There is a lot of opposition even among top Republicans and in Corporate America to these tariffs and igniting a trade war, but Trump has not yet backed off. However, I would expect Trump to change his mind if the Dow heads down something like 10% over the next few days. As we have seen in the past, politicians get wobbly knees when the stock market craters. But if it doesn’t, if this is nothing but a little hiccup, Trump’s stance might have some staying power.

The US trade deficit in non-petroleum products hit an all-time record of $734 billion in 2017. Read…  How Out-Of-Whack are US Trade Relationships? 2017 Trade Deficit Worst since 2008
« Last Edit: March 07, 2018, 12:36:49 AM by RE »
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17526
    • View Profile
Re: 🔻 Dow Futures Drop 420 Points, as Cohn Plans to Resign
« Reply #514 on: March 07, 2018, 04:25:00 AM »
I wonder if Gary Cohn is any relation to Roy Cohn, Joe McCarthy's lawyer and Trumpovetsky's mentor?  ???  :icon_scratch:

RE

Dow Futures Drop 420 Points, as Cohn Plans to Resign, Igniting Trade-War Fears

by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2018 • 49 Comments


The markets’ man in the White House is on the way out.


Roy Cohn with Don Trumpovetsky

It didn’t take long for the futures market to react. After it was reported Tuesday evening that Gary Cohn plans to resign, Dow futures plunged 410 points, or 1.7%, at the moment. He matters to Wall Street. As Director of the National Economic Council, he’s President Trump’s top economic adviser. He’s also a former Goldman Sachs executive and a free-trade Democrat.

He was one of the few remaining “globalists” in the White House. He’d opposed the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that Trump has been proposing and tweeting about since last week, including Trump’s now immortal “Trade wars are good” tweet on March 2:

    “When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”

And that philosophy is anathema to Cohn and the stock market. But he apparently has lost that battle. He is expected to leave over the next few weeks, joining the list of high-profile departures from the White House.

“According to people familiar with his thinking,” cited by the New York Times, there may have been many reasons, and “officials insisted there was no single factor behind the departure.” But in the end, the top item on the list was likely his fervent opposition to tariffs and trade wars. “Mr. Cohn, a longtime proponent of free trade, believed the decision could jeopardize economic growth,” the Times said.

Cohn is – or was – the markets’ guy in the White House. And now he’s on the way out.

Trump told the Times in a statement: “Gary has been my chief economic adviser and did a superb job in driving our agenda, helping to deliver historic tax cuts and reforms and unleashing the American economy once again. He is a rare talent, and I thank him for his dedicated service to the American people.”

According to the Times:

    White House officials said that Mr. Cohn was leaving on cordial terms with the president and that they planned to continue discussing policy even after his departure.

    People close to Mr. Cohn said that he had planned to stay for roughly a year, and that he had accomplished a number of things he cared about. That included the $1.5 trillion tax cut that Republicans passed last year.

So everything is hunky-dory and everyone is on best terms. And since Cohn is already wealthy and will likely slip right back through the revolving door on Wall Street into a top slot, he doesn’t even have to write a kiss-and-tell book, unlike so many others before him. And that must be a relief for the White House.

But markets are not happy. Dow futures are down 420 points at the moment, or 1.7%. S&P 500 futures are down 40 points, or 1.5%. Nasdaq futures are down 100 points or 1.5%. The Nikkei, minutes after opening in Tokyo, is down 180 points, or 0.8%.

The futures market is often enough no indicator of how stocks will be doing during regular trading hours. But it is an indication that the Tariff Tantrum has re-emerged with some magic up its sleeve.

There is a lot of opposition even among top Republicans and in Corporate America to these tariffs and igniting a trade war, but Trump has not yet backed off. However, I would expect Trump to change his mind if the Dow heads down something like 10% over the next few days. As we have seen in the past, politicians get wobbly knees when the stock market craters. But if it doesn’t, if this is nothing but a little hiccup, Trump’s stance might have some staying power.

The US trade deficit in non-petroleum products hit an all-time record of $734 billion in 2017. Read…  How Out-Of-Whack are US Trade Relationships? 2017 Trade Deficit Worst since 2008

I doubt he's a direct descendant, since Roy Cohn was gay. It looks likw a bad day to be all in, but I am. I'll just have to ride this one out, most likely.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17526
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #515 on: March 07, 2018, 05:24:37 AM »
Hmmm. Futures are up now. Typical.

Oops. I was looking a the close instead of the pre-market. Premarkets are down, but not bad just ahead of the open. I predict a swoon followed by a comeback. That's a fairly safe bet.

« Last Edit: March 07, 2018, 06:11:27 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
💸 U.S. stocks slip as trade war rhetoric escalates
« Reply #516 on: March 23, 2018, 03:25:57 PM »
No help from the PPT today.  Will they drop in next week?  What's the over-under?

RE

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-stocks-stave-off-deeper-losses-in-early-trading-as-trade-war-rhetoric-escalates/2018/03/23/05c78550-2e9a-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.68675db3af6a

U.S. stocks slip as trade war rhetoric escalates


Tokyo stocks plunged following worries in the global economy after President Trump decided to apply tariffs on Chinese products imported in the United States. (Franck Robichon/Epa-Efe/Rex/Shutterstock)

By Thomas Heath March 23 at 4:30 PM Email the author

U.S. stock markets ended their worst week in more than two years on Friday after China threatened to respond in kind to President Trump’s imposition of $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.

The Dow Jones industrial average plummeted in the last hours of a bouncy day Friday and closed down 424 points, 1.77 percent. The Dow shed 1,100 points in the last two trading days.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 2.1 percent; and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.4 percent as its stalwart Facebook declined nearly 14 percent for the week as it faced a crisis over data misuse. The social-media giant is down 9.7 percent this year.

Economy & Business Email Alerts

Breaking news about economic and business issues.

The Dow is on pace for one of its worst-performing months since 2015 as investors grow anxious that Trump’s trade policies and their fallout could upset a robust global economy. U.S. markets fell swiftly earlier this year when he imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

The Dow is down nearly 5 percent in 2018. The S&P is down 3.2 percent year to date, while the Nasdaq Composite is hanging onto positive territory.

Despite the craziness, some money managers cautioned that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, aided by a tax cut, repatriation of corporate profits and a budget bill signed by President Trump on Friday that includes the largest hike in military spending in 15 years.
Content from The Government of Japan
"The Japanese government provides international cooperation in disaster risk reduction emphasizing mitigation and preparedness so that others can make use of this know-how and the lessons from past mega-disasters in Japan." - Junichi Hirano, Deputy Director, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)   Read More

“This market is oversold,”said John Lynch, chief investment strategist at LPL Financial. “The worst of the fears are being priced into the market these past two days as the Dow is down 1,100 points or so. The combination of fiscal stimulus and corporate profits will overwhelm tariffs.”

The wild week wasn’t all about tariffs. Facebook’s deepening crisis and the Federal Reserve raising rates Wednesday rattled shaky investors. Markets went deep red on Thursday, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping 724 points — nearly 3 percent — as Trump signaled his trade offensive against China.

The Chinese government fired back within hours with its own threat to hit $3 billion in U.S. goods with tariffs. Trump’s announcement was “typical unilateralism and protectionism,” China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement, and it had set a “very bad precedent.”

“China does not want to fight a trade war, but it is absolutely not afraid of a trade war,” it said.

The threat of a tit-for-tat dragged down European and Asian financial markets with indexes in Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul taking heavy losses. The German DAX was down 1.77 percent and the British FTSE 100 droped .44 percent.

China said the slides support its stance.

“I think this represents a vote of no-confidence in the relevant U.S. policies and actions,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. “It also demonstrated that the international community is concerned about the recklessness and danger of U.S. policies and actions.”

China said Thursday it would impose tariffs on up to 128 products imported from the United States, with most of the pain expected to land on American agriculture, including fruit and wine. China is a big importer of American-produced food, especially staples such as soybeans.

The Dow blue-chip index of 30 bellwether stocks is now firmly in correction territory from its Jan. 26 peak. A 10 percent decline from its high earlier this year is considered a correction.

The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are also in retreat as investors nervously digested the trade volleys coming out of Washington and Beijing. They were down 2.5 and 2.4 percent respectively Thursday.

The Dow and S&P 500 are in negative territory for 2018. The Nasdaq is still 3 percent in the black despite taking a beating this week.

The Federal Reserve also roiled markets when it raised interest rates a quarter point a Wednesday with a plan to raise them more in the near future.

Simon Denyer in Beijing and David J. Lynch in Washington contributed to this report.
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Palloy2

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 6097
    • View Profile
    • Palloy's Blog
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #517 on: March 23, 2018, 04:11:51 PM »
Quote
The Dow shed 1,100 points in the last two trading days. ... The Dow is down nearly 5 percent in 2018. The S&P is down 3.2 percent year to date, while the Nasdaq Composite is hanging onto positive territory.

Gold: US$1,346 /oz - almost a 5-year high

Quote
investors grow anxious that Trump’s trade policies and their fallout could upset a robust global economy

Ha ha ha. The markets must know that the end can happen at any moment. 
That's why the war alarm situation is being cranked up seriously.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
Financial Markets- Carnage... Everywhere
« Reply #518 on: March 23, 2018, 04:13:52 PM »
Not a good week to stop sniffing glue.  ::)

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/VmW-ScmGRMA" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/VmW-ScmGRMA</a>

RE

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/carnage-everywhere

Carnage... Everywhere

Carnage... Everywhere

"It'll be fine" they said... "You buy the dip" they said..."just follow my tracks"...

 

Post-Powell, Gold is the big winner...

 

Only Nasdaq remains in the green for the year, as Small Caps joined the rest in the red this week...

 

But it was an ugly week for global markets.

Chinese stocks slammed (but rescued late on Friday by The National Team)...

 

Chinese commodities carnaged...

 

Japanic...

 

Europe was eviscerated...

 

And back in 'Murica, things were just as bad...

  • *DOW AVERAGE FALLS 426 POINTS TO LOWEST SINCE NOV. 22

  • *S&P 500 SINKS 5.9% IN WEEK, BIGGEST DROP IN MORE THAN TWO YEARS

  • *NASDAQ 100 PLUNGES 7.3% IN WEEK, MOST SINCE AUGUST 2015

Nasdaq worst but everything was carnage!

 

Today was chaos - futures show the desperation: three algo ramps fail and we crash into the lows...

 

The Dow broke its triangle, broke below key averages, and is down over 10% from its record highs (in correction)...

The Dow record intraday high on 1/26/18 was 26616.7.

 

The S&P crashed to its 200DMA...

 

As FANGMAN stocks were all ugly, led lower by Facebook...

 

Facebook is at its lowest since July...

 

Banks were not quite as ugly as tech but almost...

 

VIX spiked above 26... a long way from the flash crash on payrolls...

 

Credit markets were a bloodbath in IG...

 

All Sectors blew wider (there are no financials)...

 

And EU HY spreads are blowing out...

 

High Yield Bond ETF crashed to its lowest since 11/16/16...

 

As bank credit risk spiked above Feb highs...

 

Shit is getting real...

 

Credit is now leading VIX...

 

Treasury yields ended the week lower, tumbling in the afternoon today as stocks slumped...

 

10Y Yields tumbled to their lowest since Feb 9th this week... This is the 21st daily close in a row with a 2.8x% handle.

 

Jeff Gundlach's favorite 10Y Yield indicator is signaling a notable drop in yields to come...

 

The yield curve stabilized modestly this week... at 10 year flats....

 

The Dollar tried to bounce yesterday but ended at the lows of the week and lowest since Feb 20th... This is the first down week in the last five weeks...

 

Bitcoin managed to scramble into the green for the week, after cryptos erased their losses from G-20 concerns...

 

While Chinese commodities crashed; as the dollar tumbled, the energy complex ripped higher along with PMs (as copper tumbled)...

 

Gold was the best performing precious metal as Palladium tumbled...

 

WTI/RBOB had a big week but note (lower pane) that as selling pressure hit stocks, the energy sector dumped into the red on the week...

 

Finally, this is far from over!!! "It's baked in the cake"...

 

Say goodbye to The Shanghai Accord. What happens next...

Save As Many As You Can

Offline agelbert

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 11820
    • View Profile
    • Renewable Rervolution
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #519 on: March 23, 2018, 04:27:37 PM »
     
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17526
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #520 on: March 23, 2018, 04:55:07 PM »
I was up 3K at the open, and then ended up $100 for the day. I might go to cash. Trump is crashing the markets with his trade war. With Powell intent on raising interest rates, I see a recession coming. I doubt it's the Big One or the last one. Trump is a moron and he's now surrounding himself with TV pundits who either have a long track record of being wrong (Kudlow) or they have a record of being a false-flag waving war hawk (Bolton).

He's replacing Gary Cohn at Treasury with some Maryland college professor who writes about "how companies respond to tax policy". Wonder how GS and JPM feel about that?
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline azozeo

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 9508
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #521 on: March 23, 2018, 05:45:20 PM »
The gold backed Yuan goes live Monday for petroleum purchases.

No more monopoly by Da' Fed.

I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #522 on: March 23, 2018, 06:44:32 PM »
The gold backed Yuan goes live Monday for petroleum purchases.

No more monopoly by Da' Fed.

Can't wait for somebody to try redeeming their Yuan for Gold.  ::)

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Palloy2

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 6097
    • View Profile
    • Palloy's Blog
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #523 on: March 23, 2018, 07:20:03 PM »
Quote
Can't wait for somebody to try redeeming their Yuan for Gold.

I think you mean "their PetroYuan certificates for Gold."  I'm sure that is exactly what oil exporters will do on Day #1, to prove the mechanism works.  The question then becomes: does China have enough gold to buy all the oil it needs?

China's oil consumption 12.4 Mbpd (2016) and production of 4.0 Mbpd, so imports 8.4 Mbpd, worth about $546,000,000 /day, or 405,646 oz/day of Gold or 12.6 tonnes/day.  So yes, it has plenty of gold to manage for a while. 

Once the trade is commonplace, the PetroYuan certificates will have credibility and be just as good as US Dollars as a proxy for gold.  The USD couldn't stand a Dollars-for-Gold run in 1971, and the PetroYuan will be the same.  China's principal oil importer is Russia and they won't want to destroy the PetroYuan.  Other oil-producing countries import a lot of Chinese stuff and will use their PetroYuan for that.

If it wasn't going to work, China wouldn't be setting it up, would they?  The prize would be to get Saudi Arabia to sell its oil for PetroYuans, thus getting it out of its US subjugation.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39416
    • View Profile
Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #524 on: March 23, 2018, 07:28:07 PM »
Quote
Can't wait for somebody to try redeeming their Yuan for Gold.

I think you mean "their PetroYuan certificates for Gold."  I'm sure that is exactly what oil exporters will do on Day #1, to prove the mechanism works.  The question then becomes: does China have enough gold to buy all the oil it needs?

China's oil consumption 12.4 Mbpd (2016) and production of 4.0 Mbpd, so imports 8.4 Mbpd, worth about $546,000,000 /day, or 405,646 oz/day of Gold or 12.6 tonnes/day.  So yes, it has plenty of gold to manage for a while. 

Once the trade is commonplace, the PetroYuan certificates will have credibility and be just as good as US Dollars as a proxy for gold.  The USD couldn't stand a Dollars-for-Gold run in 1971, and the PetroYuan will be the same.  China's principal oil importer is Russia and they won't want to destroy the PetroYuan.  Other oil-producing countries import a lot of Chinese stuff and will use their PetroYuan for that.

If it wasn't going to work, China wouldn't be setting it up, would they?  The prize would be to get Saudi Arabia to sell its oil for PetroYuans, thus getting it out of its US subjugation.

What about when the local Chinese want to redeem their Yuan for Gold?  How'z that gonna work?

RE
Save As Many As You Can