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Online Eddie

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #705 on: December 30, 2018, 03:48:10 PM »
My favorite, which I can never quite seem to keep in my long term memory.

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #706 on: December 30, 2018, 04:02:47 PM »
We both know already, and that's good enough for me. I don't need to defrock the High Priest of Collapse.

Besides, I consider you my friend too. There's a karmic reason we met, and it probably won't be over until one of us is pushing up daisies.I hope not.
 
And you've been kind to me, and I notice that shit and it matters, at least to me.

You have been kind to me as well, and I am grateful.  I'm just a compulsive debater, and I do like to tweak people to see how they react.  I know it bothers you to be identified as rich, so I keep doing it to needle you. lol.

In all likelihood I will win the Great Race to the Other Side between us.  I too hope we don't part ways until that fateful day.  After we do though...wait for it...I will...

SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE

RE
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Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #707 on: December 30, 2018, 05:59:41 PM »
Eddie, good to see you can be rational and civil even in disagreement.
Writing this on lunch break from work. Surprised how threads go on sometimes...

I understand you disagree with the hyperinflation situation. I just dont understand how else it will be resolved. Surely there is not enough tax money nor enough growth potential to pay down the debt in the US. The empire is at the limits as far as I can see.

What is the alternative, and what time frames are we talking about?

JOW


Online Eddie

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #708 on: December 30, 2018, 07:55:37 PM »
I came to this site to figure out collapse and write about what I learned. I really don't have any axe to grind. I'm not any kind of denier.

But I'm willing to question popular memes and try to figure out if they're based on reality, and particularly if certain widely accepted ideas seem to be perpetuated for the financial gain of people who peddle fear. Hoarding gold is one  idea that I think needs to be examined thoroughly, because people like me, with families and bills to pay, have to sacrifice to obtain it, and it takes money away from good investments.

 If you have gobs of money, no problem.  Me, I'm not really that rich. RE embellishes my wealth. And what I do have, I obtained through hard work and saving. I didn't inherit a single penny, and I paid for most of my own education. So I make up my own mind about things.

 I think it's very useful to have a thread like this one, so that both sides can be looked at.  I don't want anyone to take my word for it because I'm some authority. I'm just a guy who looks at things in depth, and I don't take the word of other people because it seems to be the prevailing opinion.

I appreciate your good will too. We really are all in this together.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #709 on: December 30, 2018, 08:12:20 PM »
RE embellishes my wealth.

I do not.  I peg you exactly where you belong, in the Top 1% of American Society.

US Income Distribution
US Income Distribution

RE
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Online Eddie

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #710 on: December 30, 2018, 08:58:19 PM »
And I'm happy to point out that that makes YOU.....a crippled ward of the state, and ME.....a doctor who works every day, closer to the same level of wealth, than somebody like me and a  REALLY rich person.....like say President Trump, or Charles Koch.

Which is why, when you go off on your rants about how rich I am, it pisses me off.

Because you do know exactly what I mean, and my point is an important one.

When you do that, it makes other people, many other people, including people who read us here, think that I'm some kind of fat cat, which just ain't so. But you keep doing it, because you want to discredit what I say.

But you're deliberately misrepresenting me and you do it with malice aforethought. If you were stupid and didn't know better, I'd just vote with my feet, like I have, from most other venues, many of which are populated by idiots. like TBP.

What percent is Chris Hedges in?  He's worth somewhere between 10 and 20 million bucks depending on which source you believe.

Is is okay for a socialist Presbytyrian  minister to be that rich? Different rules? 

Would it be okay for me to have the money I worked my ass off for, if I were a good socialist?
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 09:02:14 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #711 on: December 30, 2018, 10:00:02 PM »
And I'm happy to point out that that makes YOU.....a crippled ward of the state

I'm not a "ward of the state".  I am the recipient of the Insurance program I paid into for over 40 years.

Quote
When you do that, it makes other people, many other people, including people who read us here, think that I'm some kind of fat cat, which just ain't so. But you keep doing it, because you want to discredit what I say.

No, I do it mainly because it gets your blood boiling.  lol

[
Quote
But you're deliberately misrepresenting me and you do it with malice aforethought. If you were stupid and didn't know better, I'd just vote with my feet, like I have, from most other venues, many of which are populated by idiots. like TBP.

I never "misrepresented" you.  You are in the top bracket of income earners in the FSoA.  I never said you were richer than that.

Quote
What percent is Chris Hedges in?  He's worth somewhere between 10 and 20 million bucks depending on which source you believe.

Probably around the top .01%

Quote
Is is okay for a socialist Presbytyrian  minister to be that rich? Different rules?

Depends what he does with the money.

Quote
Would it be okay for me to have the money I worked my ass off for, if I were a good socialist?

Depends what you use the money for.  Vacations in the VI don't cut it.  A nice Donation to the SUN Foundation is acceptable.  :icon_sunny:

RE
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 10:02:02 PM by RE »
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Offline AJ

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #712 on: December 31, 2018, 04:59:38 AM »
I feel for you Eddie. Emotionally being Rich is a matter of personal perspective, BUT it's also a matter of statistics. I think RE is right you are in the top 1% of income.  Although retired, I am in the top couple of percent with regard to net worth. I think I am Rich, my wife thinks we are poor - because our income is SS and rental income. She also labors under the comparison to others syndrome. As a former child of poverty (hard working Asian parents pulling themselves up by their bootstraps - gotta love Horatio Alger) and subsequently an estate planner to the .01% (her client's were routinely worth $20+ mil) she sees us as poor.
Eddie, I agree you are poor compared to the Koch's, Gate's, Bezo, et. al.)
The real problem to me is what is your lifestyle. The higher up the economic ladder the greater your consumption (usually) and the more you are generally contributing to catastrophic climate change. I am actively pushing myself down the consumption ladder. Eddie doesn't appear to be overly consumptive. Meanwhile, almost all of the .01% are contributing massively to our carbon increases by their lifestyles (and manipulating the economy for their own continuance). For us to have any chance at averting NTHE we have to stop emitting CO2 and start sequestering it. The problem is not Eddie, myself, or RE; or our net worth (except that all of us are in the top 10% with respect to the world).
AJ 
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Offline RE

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #713 on: December 31, 2018, 05:24:51 AM »
The higher up the economic ladder the greater your consumption (usually) and the more you are generally contributing to catastrophic climate change. I am actively pushing myself down the consumption ladder. Eddie doesn't appear to be overly consumptive. Meanwhile, almost all of the .01% are contributing massively to our carbon increases by their lifestyles (and manipulating the economy for their own continuance). For us to have any chance at averting NTHE we have to stop emitting CO2 and start sequestering it. The problem is not Eddie, myself, or RE; or our net worth (except that all of us are in the top 10% with respect to the world).

Quite a bit of good data on this topic is coming out of the2019 Collapse Survey.  I'll be doing an Energy & Technology article for next Sunday Brunch based on these numbers. Survey now up to 444 Respondents (not 666. lol).  A Treasure Chest of Data.

RE
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Offline RE

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How LOW can we GO?



RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/stock-markets-dow-futures-fall-after-weak-economic-data-in-china.html

US Markets

    Market Movers Dow 30 NASDAQ 100 Sectors

Dow futures fall more than 400 points after weaker-than-expected economic data in China

    At around 4:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning, Dow futures fell 439 points, indicating a negative open of more than 476 points.
    Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were also seen relatively downbeat.
    Wall Street concluded trading in 2018 on Monday, with all major stock indexes registering their worst yearly performances since the financial crisis.

Sam Meredith   | @smeredith19
Published 1 Hour Ago Updated 24 Mins Ago CNBC.com
   

U.S. stock index futures pulled back on the first trading day of the new year, as more disappointing economic data from China hampered global risk appetite.

At around 4:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning, Dow futures fell 439 points, indicating a negative open of more than 476 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were also seen relatively downbeat.

The moves in pre-market trade come after a private sector survey showed manufacturing activity in the world's second-largest economy contracted for the first time in 19 months. China's Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December dipped to 49.7 from 50.2 in November.

The weaker-than-expected data follows a poor official survey on factory output, compounding concerns about a possible economic slowdown this year.

Wall Street concluded trading in 2018 on Monday, with all major stock indexes registering their worst yearly performances since the financial crisis.

Despite solid gains on Monday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 6.2 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, for 2018. Both indexes posted their biggest annual losses since 2008, when they plunged 38.5 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9 percent in 2018, its worst year in a decade, when it dropped 40 percent.

On the data front, investors are likely to closely monitor manufacturing PMI data for December at around 9:45 a.m. ET.

— CNBC's Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 02:45:13 AM by RE »
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Offline AJ

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #715 on: January 02, 2019, 04:59:18 AM »
I personally hope the economy collapses. :evil4: I don't know if that is a death wish or not. I'd love a collapse like Irv Mills or the Archdruid think will happen (slow). But at the same time I know that it will never go the way people figure it will. :icon_scratch: I know I will never be prepared enough for what is coming, but it will be interesting.
AJ
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Offline RE

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Not a good month to buy & hold Apple.

RE

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/02/iphone-sales-croak-china-particularly-bad-apple-warns-shares-plunge/

iPhone Sales Croak, China’s Economy Deteriorating Faster than Expected, Apple Warns. Shares Plunge
by Wolf Richter • Jan 2, 2019 • 52 Comments   
“We did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration.” Oh dude, starting the year out on the right foot.


On Wednesday after the market closed, Apple released a letter to shareholders in which it said that revenues are going to be a lot worse in the quarter ended December 29 than its guidance two months ago, that iPhone revenues have dropped year-over-year, that China’s economic problems are deeper than expected, and that iPhone revenues are hurting elsewhere too. This confirms a series of revenue warnings from Apple suppliers.

Shares plunged 7.5% after hours to $146. If shares close at this level on Thursday, it would be the lowest close since November 7, 2017. Shares have plunged 38% in three months. Wow, this was quick:

In its “Letter from Tim Cook,” Apple slashed its revenue guidance by 6% to 10% from its prior guidance two months ago, to about $84 billion in the quarter, down from its previous guidance of $89 billion to $93 billion.

Just to get this straight, this revenue guidance of $84 billion represents a 5% revenue decline from the quarter a year ago. The price increases of its new models aren’t exactly helping a lot, it seems.

Here are some of the key points Apple made in its letter (emphasis added):

    While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.

    China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States.

    As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China’s smartphone market has been particularly sharp.

    Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance…

But it’s not just China that’s responsible for year-over-year iPhone revenue declines. It’s China plus…

Plus, “other emerging markets”

Plus, “some developed markets,” where “iPhone upgrades also were not as strong as we thought they would be.”

In addition to economic factors hitting iPhone sales, such as the harsher-than-expected slowdown in China, Apple believes there are “other factors broadly impacting our iPhone performance,” including:

    “Consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies,” and therefore becoming more price conscious,”
    “US dollar strength-related price increases,”
    “And some customers taking advantage of significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements.”

In other words, these iPhones are too expensive, and consumers are successfully looking for alternatives, such as buying less costly brands and replacing the batteries in their old iPhones to be able to use them for a few more years.

CEO Tim Cook then explained in an interview on CNBC that it’s not the Chinese government pushing down on iPhone sales:

    “Well, certainly Apple has not been targeted by the government. So let me take away any kind of doubt of that right up top. There are reports, sort of sporadic reports, about somebody talking about not buying our products because we’re American, maybe a little bit on social media, maybe a guy standing in front of a store or something. My personal sense is that this is small.

    “Keep in mind that China’s not monolithic. Just like America’s not monolithic. You have people with different views and different ideas. And so do I think anybody elected not to buy because of that? I’m sure some people did. But my sense is the much larger issue is the slowing of the economy.

In the letter, as well as in the interview, Cook also complained about the trade tensions between China and US.

The letter points out repeatedly that iPhones are the sole problem, and that all other categories are doing great, with the revenues from Services, Mac, iPad, and Wearables/Home/Accessories combined expected to rise nearly 19% in the quarter, year-over-year.

But this is not much of a consolation, given that Apple has become so desperately dependent on iPhones and its strategy of jacking up iPhone prices to overcome weak unit sales. Turns out, there seems to be price resistance after all, even for iPhones. And China may just be ground zero for that price resistance.

Here are some ugly long-term charts that Wall Street doesn’t want us to see. And now US stocks are infected too. Read... Long-Term “Buy & Hold” Crushed Stockholders in Largest Markets Except US & India. But for the US, Luck’s Running Out 
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Offline AJ

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #717 on: January 03, 2019, 05:00:33 AM »
Should be an interesting day today (aren't they all ;)). Someday we will all say to ourselves, "That's the day the Big Slide began". Unless, of course, Trumpsky launches the nukes (never out of the realm of possibilities) especially it you read Ugo's most recent post https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/12/2019-are-you-ready-for-new-world-war.html
AJ
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Online Eddie

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #718 on: January 03, 2019, 05:39:52 AM »
I have gotten the exact same report from both my crypto mentor (in Australia), and the WSJ within the last 48 hrs.

If you look at high yields bond spreads though, and look at prior crashes, you'll see that it still looks like it's very early. Not at critical mass yet. The chart Wolf posted is accurate, but it's compressed and makes it look like the crash will be tomorrow. I think the one posted in the WSJ yesterday shows the situation better, but I can't find it. My mentor posted it on her site and drew the same conclusions as Wolf, so I'm not denying the realities here, but I am questioning the timing and the level of certainty.

I'm not in equites at all, so let it crash. But it will be interesting to see if I'm right about cryptos. I think cryptos that pay interest will be a game changer. And absolutely nobody sees it.
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Offline RE

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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/06/tesla-falls-from-grace-facebook-plunges-to-the-ignominious-level-of-goldman-wells-fargo-sears/

Tesla Falls from Grace with Americans, Facebook Plunges to the Ignominious Level of Goldman, Wells Fargo, Sears 
by Wolf Richter • Mar 6, 2019 • 99 Comments • Email to a friend   


But the US government got them all beat.

Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk had a magic touch when it came to marketing. Walking on water was just a low-level activity. Tesla was able to create enormous pent-up demand for its Model 3, long before it ever entered much delayed production, collecting $1,000-deposits from hundreds of thousands of enthusiasts without ever spending a dime on advertising the Model 3. That will go down as one of the most fabulous product launches ever.

A year ago, Musk was still seen walking on water after lunch, and his erratic behavior and pronouncements just brightened his halo. But now he’s wading knee-deep in mud, with the SEC breathing down his neck, as Tesla is laying off people in waves, closing all its stores to save cash, and shipping Model 3s to China and Europe because demand has dried up in the US.

Americans have taken note: Tesla’s reputation has plunged from a glorious 3rd place last year among the most visible US companies to a middling 42nd place, according to the Axios Harris Poll 100 that ranks the reputations of the most visible companies in the United States.

In the survey that polled a nationally representative sample of 18,228 Americans between January 2nd and 18th, Tesla plunged 39 places from the prior year – and landed just below Google, which has had its own series of issues, and right above General Electric which is trying to dismember itself in an existential struggle.

Only scandal-plagued Facebook plunged further than Tesla, down 43 places, a move that mirrored the plunge in its shares.

The poll rates a company on nine subcategories: Affinity, ethics, growth, products/service, citizenship, vision, culture, character, and trajectory. Where Tesla got dented the most was in the categories of culture (58th place), character (57th place), ethics (56th place), and citizenship (54th place). But in the category of products/service, it ranked 14th; and in trajectory, it ranked 22nd.

Tesla’s fate appears to be inextricably tied to Musk, and when Musk walks on water, Tesla soars. And when Musk sinks up to his crotch into mud, Tesla loses it.

Facebook’s reputation ranking was already a lot lower last year, below even where Tesla is now, and so it plunged a lot deeper than Tesla: It plunged to 94th place near the bottom of the list, into the ignominious territory of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, both of which are embroiled in festering and costly scandals, and of Sears which is bankrupt.

Goldman Sachs ticked down 1 spot to 93rd place, but Wells Fargo managed to tick up 1 spot to 96th place. Sears fell 9 spots to 97th, raking dead last (#100) in four categories: growth, vision, culture, and trajectory.

There are only 3 spots left below Sears, at the bottom of the list. In 98th place is the Trump Organization whose dirty laundry keeps getting aired on a daily basis; cigarette maker Phillip Morris; and well, in last position, the US government, which ranked dead last (#100) in two categories, affinity and ethics, and next-to-dead-last (#99) in character and trajectory.

“The U.S. Government is the worst company in America, according to its customers (the citizens of America),” Axios says as the top of the five “Key Findings.”

“The Axios Harris Poll 100 is a measurement of what real people think right now about the companies in our cultural conversation,” Axios says (detailed methodology). And that sounds about right.

The FANGMAN companies that I track periodically on WOLF STREET showed mixed results:

    Facebook was the #1 plunger this year, down 43 spots, from #51 in 2018 to #94 in 2019.
    Amazon ticked down from #1 last year, a spot it had held for three years, to #2 this year.
    Netflix fell 3 spots, from #21 to #24.
    Google dropped 13 spots from #28 to #41, after employees were “walking out over Google’s Project Maven contract to partner with the Department of Defense on AI technology and the #Metoo challenges.”
    Microsoft ticked up 2 spots to #9.
    Apple, which had peaked at #2 in 2016 and then fell, landing on #29 in 2018, fell further in 2019, to #32
    Nvidia, the taillight of the FANGMAN didn’t make the list.

Interestingly, and perhaps not all that surprisingly, the 10 companies with the highest-rated reputations included a family-owned supermarket chain (Wegmans) an employee-owned supermarket chain (Publix), and two family-owned retailers (Patagonia and L.L. Bean):

    Wegmans
    Amazon
    Patagonia, rose 6 spots
    L. Bean, up 11 spots
    Walt Disney
    Publix (employee-owned supermarket chain)
    Samsung
    Procter & Gamble
    Microsoft
    Sony, up 21 spots.

Tesla’s plunge from grace with Americans, while not as drastic as that of Facebook, shows that the hype isn’t working anymore, at least not to the extent it did. For Americans, Musk no longer walks on water, and Tesla suddenly has to face all the problems other automakers have to face, plus some.

This is how its own online sales, now one-third of its total sales, eat its brick & mortar. But it’s a matter of survival. Read… The Biggest Retailers Are Too Scared to Disclose this Data. But Nordstrom Just Did
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