AuthorTopic: Big Slide v2.0 Begins  (Read 118949 times)

Offline RE

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https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-investors-see-sea-of-red-as-global-stocks-drop-2019-3

Recession fears trigger sea of red in Asian stocks; US and Europe are are only slightly lower
Callum Burroughs


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 04, 2018 in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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    Fears of a US recession reached new highs during Asian trading hours on the back of bond market warnings.
    US futures are slightly lower in trading after a brutal session on Friday which sent the S&P 500 1.9% lower.
    Nasdaq futures are down 0.3%, while European markets are mixed.

Asian stocks closed in the red with recessionary warnings front and center on Monday.

The selloff on Friday bled into Monday trading, but seemed to stop at Asia as US futures and European stocks are broadly flat. The worries followed a yield curve inversion last Friday, which signalled the bond market's increasing concern about global growth and US recession.

Weaker industrial data out of Germany and dovish moves by the Federal Reserve last week had also dampened sentiment.

Investors saw the inversion of the three month to 10 year year US Treasury yield curve on Friday, the first since 2007, as a flashing light on global recession which prompted a broader run on equities.

"Global stocks have taken a battering in the last couple of sessions as bond yields have sunk across the board," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. "The slide in yields last week was a red flag for equities; the bond market loudly proclaiming that it's not confident about the growth outlook."

Here's the roundup as of 10.32 a.m. in London (6.32 a.m. in New York)

    The Shanghai Composite dropped 2% Monday while Japan's Nikkei plunged 3% as the country's economy struggles through global economic headwinds.
    In the US, futures are slightly in the red with the Nasdaq down 0.3% while the Dow and S&P 500 are both 0.1% lower.
    European markets are mixed, but broadly flat. The Euro Stoxx 50, France's CAC and Germany's DAX index are all little changed.
    US 10-year Treasury yields dived on Friday following the yield curve inversion but investors have fled equity markets for bonds Monday, with yields up 0.4%
    Oil, which had previously been boosted by OPEC+ cuts, slightly declined amid growth fears with Brent down 0.1% and WTI 0.4% lower.

SEE ALSO: Yet another recession warning just flashed red — a Treasury 'yield curve' just inverted for the first time since 2007
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Offline RE

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-drop-over-200-points-as-u-s-china-trade-talks-appear-stalled-2019-05-13

Dow tumbles more than 500 points as U.S.-China tariff battle escalates

Published: May 13, 2019 10:50 a.m. ET

China editorial says country won’t ‘bow to any extreme pressure’


AFP/Getty Images China's Vice Premier Liu He, gestures next to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Beijing earlier this year.

By Chris Matthews
Markets Reporter

Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter

U.S. stocks fell sharply Monday morning as China moved to raise tariffs on U.S. goods and take other retaliatory measures after Washington last week increased duties on Chinese imports and both sides appeared to harden their positions.
How did the benchmark indexes fare?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.63%  fell 538 points, or 2.1%, to 25,416, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.61% dropped 61 points, or 2.1%, to 2,821. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -3.36% slid 224 points, or 2.8%, to 7,694.

Read: Why the stock market is at the mercy of the U.S. consumer
What drove the market?

Trade tensions that drove volatility for stocks last week were rebooting Monday, as investors confronted the prospect that a U.S.-China tariff deal could take longer than anticipated, if a pact occurs at all. Talks in Washington ended Friday without an agreement.

Check out: Here are the stocks to buy if an all-out U.S.-China trade war erupts, says Goldman

After raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of annual Chinese imports to 25% from 10% on Friday, the Trump administration said it was ready to impose higher tariffs on another roughly $300 billion of goods, or nearly all the remaining products Americans buy from the second-largest economy.
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Need to Know: Almost time for investors to take ‘major defensive action,’ fund manager warns

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%. Hu Xijin, editor in chief of China’s Global Times, a daily Chinese tabloid with ties to the Communist Party, reported on Twitter Monday morning that China may take further steps in the coming days and weeks.

In several tweets over the weekend, President Donald Trump argued that the U.S. was in an advantageous position over trade, though White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow admitted Sunday that “both sides” will feel the pain. His comment that Trump and China’s President, Xi Jinping, may meet at the Group of 20 international conference in June failed to soothe investors.

See: Here’s how hard the tariff fight could hit the economy

Trump early Monday continued to send tweets regarding the talks, arguing that there was “no reason” for U.S. consumers to pay tariffs and that companies would leave China to avoid the duties if a deal isn’t reached.

Trump Today: President warns China trade spat will worsen as Beijing retaliates

Chinese state-ran media over the weekend published several editorials blasting the U.S. position and vowing that Beijing would stand firm in the talks.

Also read: Chinese media says ‘fierce U.S. offensive’ over trade won’t work

Stocks had ended last week on a positive note, with the Dow rising 114.01 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 25,942.37 on Friday. The S&P gained 0.4% to 2,881.40, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.1% to 7,916.94. For the week, however, the Dow fell 2.1%, its biggest weekly loss since March. The S&P saw a 2.2% weekly fall and the Nasdaq shed 3%, the biggest losses for both since the week ending Dec. 21.
Which stocks are in focus?

Shares of several companies perceived as sensitive to rising U.S.-China trade tensions were under pressure before the start of trade Monday, including Apple Inc. AAPL, -5.74% semiconductor firm Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -5.94% and Intel Corp. INTC, -2.99%

In addition to China concerns, investors were also paying attention to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that said Apple customers can proceed with an antitrust lawsuit challenging the company’s exclusive control over the marketplace for iPhone apps.

Uber Inc. stock was still in the spotlight, after the ride-hailing firm made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Friday. After pricing at $45 per share, Uber stock closed down 7.6% at 41.57. Shares remain under pressure Monday, down 9.7%.

Videogame publisher Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. TTWO, -3.16% and Tencent Holdings Ltd. TCEHY, -4.68% are both set to report earnings after the close on Monday.
What’s on the economic calendar?

At 11 a.m. Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve will release its survey of consumer expectations.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech Monday morning on the central bank’s ongoing review of its overall monetary policy strategy, saying “we expect to make our conclusions public in the first half of 2020.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren also gave a speech at the bank’s “Fed listens” conference Monday morning.
What are strategists saying?

“Investors are increasingly worried an anticipated second-half profit rebound may now evaporate as President Trump’s threat to tariff the remaining $325 billion in Chinese imports would disproportionately target consumer products like iPhones, thereby posing a greater threat to the consumption-driven US economy,” wrote Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell wrote in an email.

“On the heels of 2019’s historic rally, valuations are no longer depressed, making it harder for equities to shrug off looming macro risks,” he added. “With the ultimate trade outcome inherently uncertain and difficult to model or predict, investors are selling first and asking questions later. More globally exposed, cyclical industries like technology and industrials are proving most vulnerable.”

“Any good will to risk assets on Friday has faded through Asia, and there the preservation of capital is the overriding theme, although there is absolutely no panic,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

“Protectionism and the impact that can have on demand can be hard to model, and it feels that with these dynamics in play the market will further de-risk, with traders wanting a return of their equity, as opposed to on their equity,” Weston added.
How are other assets trading?

Trade worries weighed on Asian markets, where the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.21%  closed down 1.2% and other major indexes logged losses of 1% or more. Europe followed suit with the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, -1.21%  down 1.2%.

The U.S. dollar DXY, -0.04%  slid 0.2% relative to its peers, while gold GCM9, +1.06%  rose 0.8%.

Oil prices CLM9, -1.17% were climbing after Saudi Arabia said two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday.

See: Strait of Hormuz: Oil ‘choke point’ in focus as U.S. ends Iran waivers
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Offline RE

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📉 Dow plummets after China retaliates with higher tariffs
« Reply #722 on: May 14, 2019, 01:10:17 AM »
Getting close to Ben Lichtenstein time again...

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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/jCEYV3-yaN8" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/jCEYV3-yaN8</a>
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https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-stock-market-intrudes-on-the-alternate-reality-of-trumps-trade-war

The Stock Market Intrudes on the Alternate Reality of Trump’s Trade War

By John Cassidy

8:06 A.M.


After President Trump settles on a pet economic theory, he’s largely oblivious to reason, and can only be shifted by brute force.
Photograph by ​Sarah Silbiger / NYT / Redux

As the news emerged, last week, that trade talks between the United States and China had broken down, and the Trump Administration was moving to raise tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of imports from China, Donald Trump took to Twitter to promote an alternate reality. He argued that higher import duties don’t represent an additional cost to consumers and a drag on over-all economic activity, as the economics textbooks say, but are, in fact, good for the economy.

“I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!” Trump tweeted last Wednesday. On Friday, he reiterated the message, saying, “Tariffs will make our Country MUCH STRONGER, not weaker. Just sit back and watch!” And this Monday morning, he added, “The unexpectedly good first quarter 3.2% GDP was greatly helped by Tariffs from China. Some people just don’t get it!”

He’s right about that. Nearly all economists, including some who work for him, believe that tariffs are costly to the economy, and that American consumers will bear at least some of the burden as the Trump Administration raises the tariff rate from ten per cent to twenty-five per cent on thousands of imported Chinese products, including glassware, motorboats, vacuum cleaners, and metal doors and windows. When Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, appeared on Fox News on Sunday, the host Chris Wallace pointed out that tariffs are, in effect, taxes that are often passed on to consumers as higher prices. “Fair enough,” Kudlow replied. “In fact, both sides will pay. Both sides will pay in these things.” Evidently, Kudlow didn’t explain this to his boss, or Trump didn’t listen.

Kudlow also argued that it is worth bearing the short-term pain of a trade war to force China to open up its vast economy to American firms on a fairer basis. Conceivably, Trump could make this case, too—and, if he did, he would have a good deal of support from U.S. business leaders and even some Democratic officials. But instead he has promoted the fiction that trade wars are painless and easy to win. In his Monday-morning tweets, he insisted, “There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today.” He went on to suggest that Americans could “by [sic] from a non-Tariffed country” or “buy the product from inside the USA (best idea.) That’s Zero Tariffs.”

Doubtless, Trump will be taking his own advice. He could begin by trying to buy himself a shiny new iPhone XS on which to bash out more pearls of economic wisdom. Unfortunately, he won’t be able to find one that isn’t made in China. If he goes ahead with the purchase anyway, and his Administration follows through on its threat to widen its tariffs to all Chinese imports, not just the ones currently targeted, he could end up paying an extra hundred and sixty dollars for the new phone, which currently costs about a thousand dollars, according to Morgan Stanley. Apple assembles practically all of its iPhones, iPads, and other products in mainland China, as do many other U.S. companies. Even if these firms took Trump’s advice and tried to shift production to other countries, or to the United States, it would take them months or years to do it.

After he settles on a pet theory, he’s largely oblivious to reason, and can only be shifted by brute force—the sort of force that can only be applied by sharply falling approval ratings, or, even more potently, sharply falling stock prices. You only have to glance at Trump’s Twitter feed to know that he is obsessed with the stock market and believes it is a key to his political appeal. Here’s a somewhat random example from last Friday: “The average 401(k) balance has SOARED since the bottom of the market - 466%. Wow!”

He shouldn’t have tempted fate. On Monday morning, shortly after he said that China shouldn’t retaliate against his Administration’s latest moves, the Chinese government announced it would do just that. The tariffs it imposes on a range of U.S.-made goods—including vegetables, beer, and liquified natural gas—would be raised significantly, the Chinese foreign ministry said. If the timing of this announcement, which came just before the opening bell on Wall Street, was intended to spook American investors, it worked. As soon as trading started, the Dow plunged almost five hundred points from the previous close, and fell further from there. At the end of the trading session, it was down six hundred and eighteen points—or about 2.4 per cent—at 25,325.

By itself, this wasn’t an earth-shaking development. Since the start of 2019, the Dow has risen sharply, and even after Monday’s fall it is up by about eight and a half per cent. But it has also fallen about four and a half per cent in a week. That’s a significant move, and it indicates that investors are reappraising their optimistic view of the future in light of Trump’s revving up of his trade war. If both sides now dig in—no further negotiations have been scheduled—the sentiment in the market could turn even more sharply negative, producing more days like Monday.
Video From The New Yorker
The Ice Stupas

It is largely about expectations. In recent months, financial markets around the world have rallied on the basis of three beliefs: the Federal Reserve wouldn’t raise interest rates any further, the United States and China would resolve their differences over trade, and the world economy would rebound from a significant slowdown last year. The renewed threat of an all-out trade war between Washington and Beijing undermines the last two of those beliefs and renders the first one moot.

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Our Columnists

That’s obviously worrying news for the economy over all, as well as for investors and purchasers of goods made in China. Just how big the hit could be depends on what happens next. Over the weekend, economists at Goldman Sachs and UBS estimated that, on a stand-alone basis, the impact of the new tariffs would be relatively small: a reduction in G.D.P. of less than half a percentage point. But both studies pointed to the risk of further escalation evident in Trump’s threat to broaden tariffs to all Chinese imports. (On Monday, he said he hadn’t decided to go through with this move.) “If we move into that next tranche of tariffs, we are one hundred per cent in uncharted territory,” Rob Martin, an economist at UBS, told the Times. The Goldman Sachs analysis warned of another danger, too. It said that “if trade tensions sparked a major sell-off in the equity market the growth impact could worsen considerably.”

Trump didn’t immediately react to Monday’s fall in the stock market. He did reiterate his plans to meet with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, at next month’s G20 summit, in Osaka, Japan. But that summit isn’t for another six weeks, which is a long time for fast-moving financial markets. And for Trump, despite his best efforts to avoid it, reality is already biting.

    John Cassidy has been a staff writer at The New Yorker since 1995. He also writes a column about politics, economics, and more for newyorker.com.Read more »
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Offline K-Dog

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #724 on: May 15, 2019, 08:57:10 AM »
Seems like a time to sell short and when things look like they might work out to take a bump.  I have no idea about such things, but to some this is opportunity?  Unless this is the slide in which we are fried?
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline RE

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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #725 on: May 15, 2019, 09:08:42 AM »
Seems like a time to sell short and when things look like they might work out to take a bump.  I have no idea about such things, but to some this is opportunity?  Unless this is the slide in which we are fried?

That is generally the BTFD (buy the fucking dip) market strategy that Zero Hedge tends to follow, and which overall has worked pretty good for the Algos that employ it.  However, the volatility is so rapid that a human trader can't really keep up with this, and then you have all those transaction fees to deal with also.

As usual, it's about impossible to say if this si the beginning of the BIG ONE or just more bouncing around until some sort of "deal" on trade is worked out.  If Trumpovetsky persists though, it's going to really hit the overall economy very hard, and that won't help his reelection chances.

RE
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Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins
« Reply #726 on: May 15, 2019, 12:55:58 PM »
Seems like a time to sell short and when things look like they might work out to take a bump.  I have no idea about such things, but to some this is opportunity?  Unless this is the slide in which we are fried?

That is generally the BTFD (buy the fucking dip) market strategy that Zero Hedge tends to follow, and which overall has worked pretty good for the Algos that employ it.  However, the volatility is so rapid that a human trader can't really keep up with this, and then you have all those transaction fees to deal with also.

As usual, it's about impossible to say if this si the beginning of the BIG ONE or just more bouncing around until some sort of "deal" on trade is worked out.  If Trumpovetsky persists though, it's going to really hit the overall economy very hard, and that won't help his reelection chances.

RE


Big Money is having a fire sale this summer. What a great time for a crisis correction  :icon_sunny:
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline RE

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📉 Dow 25,000! Oops…
« Reply #727 on: June 02, 2019, 12:09:56 AM »
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/05/31/dow-25000-oops/


Dow 25,000! Oops…



Dow 25,000! Oops…

Nasdaq down 8.7% in May. S&P 500 back to Jan 2018. Russell 2000 down 15.7% from peak, back to Sep 2017. FANGMAN except Microsoft get creamed.

Stocks were already gunning for the worst May since 2010 when, on the evening before the last trading day, Trump tweeted that he would impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, if Mexico doesn’t crack down on migration flows coming through its southern border. Those tariffs would hit the automakers particularly hard because they imported 2.6 million vehicles from Mexico in 2018, up 10% from the prior year. Not even counting the component makers. But the Presidential tweet was just the icing on the cake. May had been crappy for stocks before the tweet went out.

The S&P 500 index, which earlier this week had fallen through 2,800, dropped another 1.3% today to 2,752, down 6.8% from its peak in early May that had exceeded by a hair the prior peak of September 2018. The index is now back where it had first been on January 9, 2018, having spent nearly 17 months going nowhere, despite intoxicating surges and nerve-wracking drops. And the chart is morphing from “not pretty” to something a little uglier (data via S&P Dow Jones Indices):

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% today, unceremoniously plopping through the 25,000 level and closed at 24,815. It’s now 7.9% below its October 2018 peak and right back where it had first been in December 2017, having spent 17 months gyrating to nowhere, including a 19% peak-to-trough plunge in four months followed by a blistering 22% rally in four months.

The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.5% today, to 7,453, the level it first reached in January 2018, also going nowhere in nearly 17 months despite a huge bout of volatility. It fell 8.7% in May.

The Russell 2000 index, which covers stocks with smaller market capitalization, fell 1.3% today, to 1,478. It’s down 9.2% in May alone, down 15.7% from its October 2018 peak, and right back where it had first been on September 26, 2017, a very volatile 20 months of going nowhere. Chart looking ugly (data via Investing.com):

In terms of the Mexico debacle: GM’s shares fell 4.2% today, to $33.34. It is the automaker that is the most exposed to Mexico: GM imported 667K vehicles from Mexico in 2018, accounting for 23% of GM’s total US sales that year. In Q1 this year, GM imports from Mexico, Trump or no Trump, surged 28% year-over-year to 182K vehicles.

But don’t just blame the tweet: By Thursday evening, GM shares were already down 10% for the month of May. Friday’s dive took this loss in May to 14%.

My fancy-schmancy FANGMAN index

My FANGMAN index – the combined market cap of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google’s parent Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA – fell 2.0% today and is down 8.7% in May.

The FANGMAN index had peaked in August 31, 2018, at $4.63 trillion, then plunged 29% to $3.29 trillion by December 24, then skyrocketed 40% to $4.61 trillion by April 29, but ominously failed to take out the August high.

Since April 29, the FANGMAN index has dropped 10.4%, giving up over one third of the blistering post-Christmas rally in just one month. The index is now back where it had first been on May 31, 2018, having gone exactly nowhere in one year despite these brain-twisting surges and plunges (market cap data via YCharts):

Here is how the FANGMAN components did:

Facebook [FB] dropped 3.0% today, and 8% in May, to $177.47. It’s down 18.8% from its all-time high in July 2018 and down 8.5% from May 31, 2018. Its market cap is now down to $507 billion.

Apple [AAPL] dropped 1.8% today and a juicy 16.8% in May, to $175.07, down 25% from its all-time high in August 2018 and down 8.0% from May 31 last year. Once the most valuable company in the S&P 500, Apple’s market cap is now down to $805 billion, behind Microsoft and Amazon.

It’s not helpful that unit sales of its flagship product line, the iPhone, have been dropping, and that it is now trying to sell more services instead, as iPhone sales are getting battered by cheaper competitors in a stagnating market.

NVIDIA [NVDA] dropped 2.6% today. It’s down 53.7% from its all-time high last October, and it’s not far from taking out its pre-Christmas low ($127.08). If it does succeed in doing this, it would be back where it had first been in May 2017. It’s down 47% from a year ago. Market cap down to $83 billion.

Alphabet [GOOG] dropped 1.3% today to $1,103.63. It had established a new high on April 29, and has plunged 14.2% since. Down 1.4% from a year ago. Market cap at $767 billion.

Microsoft [MSFT] dropped 1.6% today to $123.68. It established a new high on April 30 and has since dropped 5.3%. Up 22.7% from a year ago. Market cap of $948 billion, the most valuable company in the S&P 500.

Amazon [AMZN] dropped 2.3% today to $1,775.07. It’s down 7.9% in May, and down 13% from its all-time high on September 4. But it’s up 8.1% from a year ago. Market cap of $874 billion, behind Microsoft.

Netflix [NFLX] dropped 2.4% today to $343.28 and is down 16.5% from its all-time high last June. And it’s down 4.6% from a year ago. Market cap at $150 billion.

So thankfully that Microsoft is included in my FANGMAN index. Without the “M,” the “FANGAN” index did a lot worse: down 15.5% from its peak on August 31, down 12% from its turnaround point on April 29, and back where it first had been on January 25, 2018. A volatile, but overall orderly unwind.

The economy is in a “very good place,” says Trump’s man at the Fed. And the Fed’s favorite inflation measure ticks up. Read…  American Consumers Prop Up the Economy. Wall Street Clamors for Multiple Rate Cuts. Fed Blows Off Wall Street 

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📉 No bottom in sight!
« Reply #728 on: June 03, 2019, 06:23:29 AM »
Break out the Bikinis and the Limbo Bar!


RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/stock-markets-wall-street-monitors-intensifying-trade-war-concerns.html

Dow futures sharply lower amid intensifying trade war concerns
Published 3 hours agoUpdated 15 min ago
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19

   
Key Points

    At around 05:05 a.m. ET, Dow futures slipped 132 points, indicating a negative open of more than 134 points.
    Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were both seen slightly lower.
    Tensions between the U.S. and China escalated over the weekend, as the two countries clashed over trade, technology and security issues.

watch now
VIDEO00:42
Stocks could start June in the red amid on-going trade concerns

U.S. stock index futures were sharply lower Monday morning, as market participants monitor an intensifying trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

At around 05:05 a.m. ET, Dow futures slipped 132 points, indicating a negative open of more than 134 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were both seen slightly lower.

Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, amid growing fears that Washington’s latest tariff threats against Mexico could tip the global economy into a recession.

Tensions between the U.S. and China escalated over the weekend, as the two countries clashed over trade, technology and security issues.

A senior Chinese official and trade negotiator said Sunday that Washington would not be able to use pressure to force a trade deal on Beijing. Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen also refused to say whether the leaders of both countries would meet at the G20 summit to work out an agreement later this month.

On the data front, a final reading of manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data for May will be released at around 9:45 a.m. ET. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index for May, construction spending figures for April and latest light vehicle sales data will all follow slightly later in the session.

In corporate news, Box and Coupa Software are both expected to release their latest quarterly results after market close.

On Friday, the Dow tumbled more than 350 points after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10. The Trump administration has threatened to raise those charges up to 25% over the coming months if Mexico does not take significant action in stopping migrants reaching the southern border.

Friday’s declines added to a torrid week and month for stocks. The Dow dropped 3% last week and notched its sixth straight weekly loss. That’s the longest weekly losing streak for the Dow since 2011. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their fourth straight weekly loss. The major indexes also snapped a four-month winning streak.
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Shades of Lehman...


RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/08/axed-deutsche-bank-workers-leave-offices-en-masse-belongings-in-hand.html

In a scene reminiscent of the financial crisis, axed Deutsche Bank workers leave with belongings

Published Mon, Jul 8 2019 3:57 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Jul 8 2019 8:29 PM EDT
Thomas Franck @tomwfranck
   

People exit Deutsche Bank’s Manhattan headquarters with white envelopes that are reportedly their exit papers following news that the global banking giant will be letting go of thousands of employees due to a major restructuring at the German bank on July 08, 2019 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
   
   
Key Points

    The scene at Deutsche Bank buildings around the world may look eerily familiar to those on Wall Street impacted by the financial crisis more than a decade ago.
    Monday represented the first wave of several rounds of layoffs at Germany’s largest lender, which announced Sunday that it will cut 18,000 jobs.
    Deutsche, which once sought to compete with Wall Street’s top investment banks, said that the restructuring is aimed at reducing adjusted costs by 25%.

watch now
VIDEO02:36
This is ‘the final restructuring’ for Deutsche Bank: CFO

The scene was solemn at Deutsche Bank’s offices in London, New York and Tokyo on Monday as scores of employees, belongings in hand, left their desks for the final time as the German lending giant began one of the largest rounds of layoffs since the financial crisis.

Carrying boxes and envelopes containing personal effects and A4 forms, Deutsche workers started their work week by collecting their belongings and emptying their desks.
People exit Deutsche Bank’s Manhattan headquarters with white envelopes that are reportedly their exit papers following news that the global banking giant will be letting go of thousands of employees due to a major restructuring at the German bank on July 08, 2019 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Monday’s exodus represented the first wave of several rounds of layoffs at Germany’s largest lender, which announced on Sunday that it will pull out of global equities sales and cut 18,000 jobs.

Deutsche, which once sought to compete with Wall Street’s top investment banks and trading desks, said that the vast restructuring is aimed at improving the firm’s profitability and reduced adjusted costs by 25% to 17 billion euros over the next several years.
A man carrying a box leaves a Deutsche Bank office in London, Britain July 8, 2019.
Simon Dawson | Reuters

The bank’s international ambitions played a central part in its strategy for decades. Its $10 billion acquisition of Bankers Trust in the late 1990s, for example, helped it compete with other American investment banks like Goldman Sachs. But Deutsche’s recent struggles — though heavy — are hardly unique as political uncertainty and anemic interest rates cripple European banks against their U.S. peers.

Some euro zone banks, including Deutsche, have tried to mitigate the damage by shoring up unprofitable businesses and regions. And while the bank did not include a geographic breakdown of the current job cuts, London and New York are hubs for its investment bank’s trading operations and could feel the greatest impact.
People exit Deutsche Bank’s Manhattan headquarters with some of their belongings following news that the global banking giant will be letting go of thousands of employees due to a major restructuring at the German bank on July 08, 2019 in New York City. The bank has announced that it will reduce its workforce by 18,000 people in Asia, Europe and America.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

For those on Wall Street who witnessed the casualties of the financial crisis more than a decade ago, the Deutsche layoffs seemed eerily familiar. In one of the largest single rounds of layoffs in history, Citigroup said in 2008 that it would eliminate 14% of its global workforce with 50,000 cuts.

In recent years, Deutsche has been pummeled by scandals, investigations and massive fines resulting from crisis-era infractions. It reached a $7.2 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department in January 2017 for allegedly misleading investors in the sale of mortgage-backed securities in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
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📉 Deutchebank: Lehman Deja Vu all over again
« Reply #730 on: July 10, 2019, 03:28:27 AM »
Ruh Roh....


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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/3LIGEIA9ny8" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/3LIGEIA9ny8</a>
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📉 Dow down over 300 points as US stocks tank early: New China tariffs kicking
« Reply #731 on: September 04, 2019, 02:36:35 AM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/09/03/dow-jones-s-p-500-stock-market-down-china-tariffs-start-nvidiahit/2196713001/

Dow down over 300 points as US stocks tank early: New China tariffs kicking in
Damian J. Troise, Associated Press Published 10:40 a.m. ET Sept. 3, 2019 | Updated 12:12 p.m. ET Sept. 3, 2019


Correction: A previous version of this video incorrectly stated when tariffs would impact pet toys. Tariffs will impact these items in December. USA

NEW YORK – Stocks fell broadly on Wall Street Tuesday as markets opened after a long weekend to expanded tariffs between the U.S. and China.

Technology companies led the decline. The sector is particularly sensitive to swings in trade relations with China and tariffs have the potential to drive up costs for gadget and chipmakers. Apple, which relies on China as a key part of its supply chain, fell 1.7%, while chipmaker Nvidia fell 2.2%.

On Sunday, the U.S. started charging a 15% tariff on about $112 billion of Chinese products. China responded by charging tariffs of 10% and 5% on a list of American goods.

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Industrial stocks were among the biggest decliners. Caterpillar, which is seen as an industry bellwether when it comes to the impact of trade, fell 2.6%.

Oil prices fell 3.4% and dragged energy stocks lower. Chevron dipped 2.5%.

Investors fled to safer holdings, including utility stocks, bonds and gold.

Utilities held up well, as did with makers of consumer products such as Procter & Gamble. The price of gold rose 1.5%.

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Bond prices rose, sending yields lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.44% from 1.50% late Friday. The lower bond yields weighed on banks. Bank of America fell 2.6%

The slide in bond yields was prompted by a disappointing manufacturing report that stoked fears of an economic slowdown. Factory activity in the U.S. last month fell short of economists' forecasts and shrank for the first time since August 2016. Businesses are more wary of investing and expanding because of uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade dispute.

The latest escalation in the lingering trade war has been expected since early August when the U.S. announced plans for the new tariff measures, prompting China to retaliate. The worsening trade situation between the world's two largest economies dragged the S&P 500 to its second monthly loss of the year in August and dented investors' confidence in global economic growth.

The U.S. and China are supposed to meet in September to continue trade negotiations, but investors have grown pessimistic that any resolution will be forthcoming in the near future.

President Trump's 'America First' approach has relied on slapping tariffs on countries, such as China and Mexico, which have led to current trade wars. What is a tariff and how do they work? We explain. Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
Dow, S&P sputter early

The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 11:05 a.m. Eastern Time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 361 points, or 1.4%, to 26,044. The Nasdaq fell 0.8%.
Down overseas as well

European stocks fell broadly and the British pound dropped to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in 34 years, excluding a brief "flash crash" in 2016 that may have been caused by technical glitches, as the U.K. faces a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's office said he would call an early election if his opponents pass legislation that would block his plans to leave the European Union by an Oct. 31 deadline.
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📉 Oil prices drop after report that Saudi production could be restored in week
« Reply #732 on: September 17, 2019, 07:35:15 AM »
That was a short-lived bump.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/investing/dow-stock-market-oil-today/index.html

Oil prices drop after report that Saudi production could be restored in weeks

By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business
Updated 10:12 AM ET, Tue September 17, 2019


New York (CNN Business)Oil prices dropped sharply Tuesday, following Monday's surge that sent shock waves around the world.
US oil futures dropped 4.6% to $59.98 per barrel, following a Reuters report that Saudi Arabian oil production would return to normal within two to three weeks. Investors took that as a positive sign about the impact of the weekend's attacks on global oil supply.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, is down 5.8% at $64.99 a barrel. On Monday, oil prices shot up more than 14%.
US stocks were mixed in early trading. The Dow (INDU) was some 60 points, or 0.2%, lower. Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) are barely in positive territory.

If oil prices fail to capture investors' attention on Tuesday, focus may turn to the Federal Reserve, which is beginning its two-day monetary policy meeting that will culminate in its interest rate update on Wednesday.
Expectations for a quarter-percentage-point rate cut are at 64%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. That's down from 92% last week.
A half percentage point cut is no longer priced in at all.
"There have been a variety of explanations for the change in expectations, be it stronger data last week, improved risk appetite, trade war optimism and even higher inflation potential following the oil price spike," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
"Whatever the reason, it would be an interesting move from the Fed to hold at the meeting and one that would almost certainly draw the ire of President Trump, although they must be used to that by now."

In US economic data, industrial production was stronger than expected in August.
Global equities ended lower on Monday. A rally in energy stocks following the oil price jump wasn't enough to keep stocks from sliding.
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📉 Here’s Why The Stock Market Got Crushed Today
« Reply #733 on: October 09, 2019, 02:18:06 AM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/08/heres-why-the-stock-market-got-crushed-today/?ss=personalfinance#6c83fd7c77f8

Here’s Why The Stock Market Got Crushed Today
Sergei Klebnikov

Forbes Staff
Markets
I cover breaking news, with a focus on money and markets.

Dow Plunges Over 500 Points Amid Fears Of An Economic Slowdown


Both major indexes fell over 1%.Getty Images

Topline: The stock market was off to a rough start on Tuesday, and although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, rising uncertainty over trade talks with China—set to start Thursday—took a huge toll and prompted a further sell-off.

    With fading optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.19%.
    The CBOE Volatility Index spiked 9.5% following Tuesday’s reports that both sides were ramping up trade tensions.
    Every sector of the market was in the red, with all but 2 out of 11 sectors falling by more than 1%.

Here are all the latest trade developments roiling the markets:

    Just days before trade talks were scheduled to resume, the Trump administration again escalated tensions on Monday, moving to blacklist eight more Chinese technology companies and reportedly discussing limits on pension investments in Chinese stocks.
    A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on Tuesday said to “stay tuned” for China’s retaliation, followed by the Ministry of Commerce saying it “strongly urges” the U.S. to remove sanctions and stop accusing China of human rights violations.
    The South China Morning Post also reported that the Chinese delegation is toning down expectations and already planning to cut short its stay in Washington.
    Later on Tuesday, the Trump administration reportedly implemented new visa restrictions on a slew of Chinese officials over alleged abuses of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang.

What to watch for: The all-important trade talks on Thursday and Friday. If no progress is made, the U.S. will go ahead with its planned tariff hike on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, on October 15.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-investors-shouldnt-ignore-this-warning-signal-from-the-oil-market-2019-10-19 

Trade-related worries about growth are taking a toll on oil, could stocks be next?


By William Watts
Deputy markets editor

Oil prices might be acting like a warning light when it comes to the stock market, which is trading near all-time highs despite growing concern over the U.S.-China tariff battle and rising global trade tensions.

“Equity and corporate bonds in the U.S. have so far shrugged off the worrying signs for the global economy coming from lower oil prices. But we suspect that it won’t be long before slower global growth, including in the U.S., takes a toll on both,” said Simona Gambarini, markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday note.

Stocks gained ground over the past week, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.39%  putting in a 0.5% advance, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.83%  saw a 0.4% weekly rise, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.95%  slipped 0.2%. That left the S&P 500 1.3% away from its all-time closing high set in July.

Oil, meanwhile, retreated, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLX19, -0.15%  falling 1.7% over the past week, dragging the U.S. benchmark lower on the month and leaving it more than 23% off its 2019 high and down nearly 30% from its October 2018 high above $76 a barrel.

Concerns over global economic growth might explain why oil has struggled in the wake of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil-processing facilities last month that temporarily knocked a whopping 5.7 million barrels of day of production offline. While the Saudis are believed to have restored output, that effort was seen depleting the world of much its spare production capacity. That means another disruption anywhere in the world could have a lasting impact on supply. The lack of a more meaningful oil price premium has confounded some market analysts.

X
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Meanwhile, signs of concern about global growth weren’t hard to find. The International Monetary Fund on Oct. 16 updated its economic outlook, cutting its outlook for global economic growth to 3% this year — the slowest pace since dark days of the 2008 financial crisis — as higher tariffs strangle manufacturing activity and international trade.

Investors have paid close attention to the ebb and flow of U.S.-China trade talks and other geopolitical concerns. U.S. stocks even got a temporary, knee-jerk lift on Thursday after U.K. and European Union negotiators announced a tentative agreement on Brexit terms.

“The two dominant geopolitical stories — Brexit and U.S./Chinese trade — are still driving markets. Of the two, the U.S. move away from free trade is by far the more important,” said Kit Juckes, global macro strategist at Société Générale, in an Oct. 16 note.

For now, investors appear tentatively happy with recent signs of progress in U.S.-China talks, including the Trump administration’s touting of a partial agreement with Beijing on Oct. 11. But the fight isn’t yet resolved and the threat of further tariff increases remain. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on $7.5 billion of European goods took effect Friday.

And measures of trade-policy uncertainty are running high, with economists at IHS Markit estimating that the resulting anxiety has already lowered U.S. capital spending by $100 billion, or 0.5% of gross domestic product.

Gambarini at Capital Economics sees parallels with 2014-16 (see chart below), when crude prices fell around $80 a barrel due largely to rapid growth in U.S. shale output and the unwillingness of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, to cut production. The S&P 500 continued to trend higher over that stretch, while overall credit spreads rose only slightly, despite signs of distress in the energy sector.
Capital Economics

The wider stock market and corporate bonds did come under pressure, however, as worries about grew about demand in the face of a weakening Chinese economy. This time around lower oil prices have only been a drag on stocks and corporate bonds in the energy sector, with investors apparently banking on a swift recovery in the global economy, she said.

Instead, Capital Economics, sees economic growth slowing further in the U.S. and remaining subdued elsewhere over the remainder of 2019, which means “it is only a matter of time before other sectors falter as well,” said Gambarini, who sees the S&P 500 ending 2019 at 2,500, down around 16% from its current level.
Earnings season

Analysts also tied a stronger stock-market tone to a well-received start to earnings season. So far around 15% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. Of those, 84% reported a positive surprise on earnings, while 64% reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.

Results, of course, typically surprise to the upside after companies steer down expectations. Still, the percentages of companies reporting earnings surprises and revenue surprises are above their respective five-year averages, according So far, the tally finds the S&P 500 is delivering a year-over-year decline in earnings of 4.7%, while revenues have grown 2.6%.

The coming week will see a continued stream of results, including third-quarter earnings on Wednesday from Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -0.25%, which is heavily exposed to China.
Economic calendar

European Central Bank policy makers gather Thursday for President Mario Draghi’s last monetary policy meeting as president. Christine Lagarde, the former International Monetary Fund managing director, takes the helm on Nov. 1. The ECB isn’t expected to make any big moves after delivering a controversial stimulus package in September, including pushing the deposit rate further into negative territory and resuming monthly bond purchases.

On the U.S. economic calendar, September existing home sales data is set for release on Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims, September durable goods orders, the Markit manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes for October and September new-home sales are all set for Thursday, while an October consumer-sentiment gauge is scheduled for Friday.
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