Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

[Snowleopard]

My latest two cent speculation on where this might go.

USA is China's biggest customer, until that changes don't look for a financial or military confrontation. 

If USA financials byte the dust they take EU with them.  EU is Russia's largest customer and China's second largest.  The Bear-Dragon alliance is not about to shoot itself in the head, but it IS preparing to survive the inevitable.

About 2020 they (Bear-Dragon) may have a fully developed alternate financial system.  If they can indeed get Germany to join up then most of EU will follow.  Russia will be cranking out its new (better than Abrams) tanks by then.  If India joins, such an alliance could be unbeatable in a decade or so.  Nonetheless I don't see an empire emerging out of this any time soon. that requires a unified command structure. 

Alternatively. (And IMHO more likely)  the major multinational corporations gain control of the major governments enough to set up a world system that benefits corporations and lets governments atrophy.  IF that happens we could see a move to up China's influence for awhile, because the "China-way" has the lowest per worker cost.  Once the "China-way" is established, governments are allowed to  devolve into sectors ruled by a corporate world council with some high sounding name.

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[alan2102]

No matter how many articles we drop on demonstrating the putrid state of the Chinese economy and ecosystem, you will come back with a refutation of some type.
Stock Market Issues and BK Solar Companies?  NO PROBLEM!  Just a washout phase!  Air & Water Pollution?  NO PROBLEM!  There is a 5 year Plan to resolve it!

More like a 65-year plan.

Yeah, you're right, R.E. I always have an answer. A well-documented and reasoned answer. And when the going gets tough on the reason front, what happens?  A bunch of lurid photos of dead fish or some such gets posted. Now THAT'S a reply! Wow! 

Like myself in the old days on TBP, you enjoy arguing with people who have an opposing viewpoint, so you gravitate toward a website where there are people who will engage you in these arguments.

Yes, for 3-4 days every 6 months or so. I enjoy it.

  Trust me, this is a waste of fucking time.

I don't agree. I don't think it is an optimal use of time, but it is not a waste of time either. Partly because having fun is not a waste of time. And partly because spirited repartee actually does keep the mind sharp and exercises certain faculties. It is all good. But since it is not an optimal use of time, I limit myself to a few days once or twice a year.

My suggestion to you is the same one I pitch at Moriarty.  Set up your own fucking Cornucopian Website.

I might just do that.

Are you kicking me off?  It is fine if you are, tho maybe wise to inquire of others, too.

You're not gonna make any headway here convincing Diners that China is the Empire of the Next Century.

Generally, that's not my purpose, R.E. I don't think it matters what DD'ers think about China. For that matter, at present it does not matter what I think about China, since I have no audience. The purpose for now is to have fun, and exercise rhetorical skills. And also to refine arguments, and develop ideas.  I have succeeded in all those areas.

And, as an aside, it might be that the great silent majority (the people who never post, said to be 10X the number who do) are probably also getting a kick out of all this, and might even have been informed by it.

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[alan2102]

RE i think china is well underway to being dominant in the 21st century

Well if THAT'S what you think then why don't you just set up your own fucking cornucopian blog?! You're not going to convince anyone around here of that rubbish.

 

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[RE]

Another possibility is that AFTER a global financial collapse, the US comes to its senses, and withdraws from Asia, leaving China as domimant there, while the US continues dominatimg the Western Hemisphere. From then on, we'll see who does better: the US with 300 million vs. the Chinese with 1,300 million on roughly the same land area.

Another possibility is that after global financial collapse ALL these nation-states break up and there are NO Global Empires,  just regional or local power centers.

RE

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[g]

Another possibility is that AFTER a global financial collapse, the US comes to its senses, and withdraws from Asia, leaving China as domimant there, while the US continues dominatimg the Western Hemisphere. From then on, we'll see who does better: the US with 300 million vs. the Chinese with 1,300 million on roughly the same land area.

Another possibility is that after global financial collapse ALL these nation-states break up and there are NO Global Empires,  just regional or local power centers.

RE

Anything is possible RE but this would be unlikely. Trouble and mayhem are fertile breeding grounds for the the powers that are least effected to move in and seize more territory by promising to restore stability and social welfare policies.

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[g]

My latest two cent speculation on where this might go.

USA is China's biggest customer, until that changes don't look for a financial or military confrontation. 

If USA financials byte the dust they take EU with them.  EU is Russia's largest customer and China's second largest.  The Bear-Dragon alliance is not about to shoot itself in the head, but it IS preparing to survive the inevitable.

About 2020 they (Bear-Dragon) may have a fully developed alternate financial system.  If they can indeed get Germany to join up then most of EU will follow.  Russia will be cranking out its new (better than Abrams) tanks by then.  If India joins, such an alliance could be unbeatable in a decade or so.  Nonetheless I don't see an empire emerging out of this any time soon. that requires a unified command structure. 

Alternatively. (And IMHO more likely)  the major multinational corporations gain control of the major governments enough to set up a world system that benefits corporations and lets governments atrophy.  IF that happens we could see a move to up China's influence for awhile, because the "China-way" has the lowest per worker cost.  Once the "China-way" is established, governments are allowed to  devolve into sectors ruled by a corporate world council with some high sounding name.

I like most of what you say Snowleopard, but differ on the total corporate control council

The politicians that rule or dictators are corrupt enough to be bought, bribed, whores for the various corporate pigs but will never in my opinion surrender control of the military button, or perks they enjoy by being in charge.

Corporations also have much different vested intersts depending of their busines while those in power are united in their lust for power and control and their ability to extract bribes for favors from the big pigs. Look no further than the Clintons as but one example of what I mean. Then of course there is Cheney, Bush and the Halliburton crew.

Taking bags of money and favors from the piggies is much too splendid a business for our leaders to ever give up. The corporation's enjoy the setup as well.

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[RE]

Another possibility is that AFTER a global financial collapse, the US comes to its senses, and withdraws from Asia, leaving China as domimant there, while the US continues dominatimg the Western Hemisphere. From then on, we'll see who does better: the US with 300 million vs. the Chinese with 1,300 million on roughly the same land area.

Another possibility is that after global financial collapse ALL these nation-states break up and there are NO Global Empires,  just regional or local power centers.

RE

Anything is possible RE but this would be unlikely. Trouble and mayhem are fertile breeding grounds for the the powers that are least effected to move in and seize more territory by promising to restore stability and social welfare policies.

I'll bet you my Pile of Gold Dust against your Pile of Krugerrands, Amerikan Eagles and Maple Leafs, equal weights and give you 2:1 odds it ends up this way in 20 years.

RE

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[Surly1]

You're not gonna make any headway here convincing Diners that China is the Empire of the Next Century.

Generally, that's not my purpose, R.E. I don't think it matters what DD'ers think about China. For that matter, at present it does not matter what I think about China, since I have no audience. The purpose for now is to have fun, and exercise rhetorical skills. And also to refine arguments, and develop ideas.  I have succeeded in all those areas.

And, as an aside, it might be that the great silent majority (the people who never post, said to be 10X the number who do) are probably also getting a kick out of all this, and might even have been informed by it.

Not so fast.
I have said repeatedly that RE is too quick on the "toast" meme regarding China. Interesting to speculate on what the impact of their population (on about the same area as the US) will be, and on the future world economy. China's population is four times our own.

Interesting fodder for thought:
http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/china.united-states

And RE won't ban you. If he hasn't banned MKing, he won't ban anybody.

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[g]

I'll bet you my Pile of Gold Dust against your Pile of Krugerrands, Amerikan Eagles and Maple Leafs, equal weights and give you 2:1 odds it ends up this way in 20 years.

RE

NO WAY JOSE!

The only thing I want to hope for twenty years from now, MAKE THAT TEN, is that you and I are still around posting on the DD.     

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[alan2102]

I have said repeatedly that RE is too quick on the "toast" meme regarding China.

That's good to hear. I did not know that. Maybe I need to start changing my view of DD's view. Maybe I give R.E. too much weight. I usually hear his words and take them as APPROXIMATELY representative of DD. Maybe wrongly.

Interesting to speculate on what the impact of their population (on about the same area as the US) will be, and on the future world economy. China's population is four times our own.

You're the 2nd on this page to make that point. But you are looking only at the borders of China, which is not the relevant thing. China is on the vast and largely unoccupied continent of EURASIA, spanning a dozen time zones. There's plenty of room to roam. There are other problems (water), but plenty of space.

RE won't ban you. If he hasn't banned MKing, he won't ban anybody.

S'ok if he does. Would save me a lot of time.

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[Surly1]

I have said repeatedly that RE is too quick on the "toast" meme regarding China.

That's good to hear. I did not know that. Maybe I need to start changing my view of DD's view. Maybe I give R.E. too much weight. I usually hear his words and take them as APPROXIMATELY representative of DD. Maybe wrongly.

Interesting to speculate on what the impact of their population (on about the same area as the US) will be, and on the future world economy. China's population is four times our own.

You're the 2nd on this page to make that point. But you are looking only at the borders of China, which is not the relevant thing. China is on the vast and largely unoccupied continent of EURASIA, spanning a dozen time zones. There's plenty of room to roam. There are other problems (water), but plenty of space.

I have an agreement from Pepe Escobar to cross post his stuff. He also thinks that China will own the 21st century. RE demurs. Won't be the first time we've butted heads. Nor the last.

The fact is that i don't know. China has an immense population and potential economic impact. What will that mean? The numbers are potentially so large that they boggle the mind. Mine, at least. Will resource constraints throttle Chinese growth and keep the rail line from being built, or will the commitment to renewables jumpstart the Chinese century?
I doubt that anyone knows.

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[g]

I doubt that anyone knows.

Of course, fortune telling is hardly a science, much as we all like to think we have a handle on the variables and facts.

I think China is certainly moving into a century of ECONOMIC dominance but not sure about military. I feel the US is still the undisputed master of advance weaponry and it's nuclear arsenal is intimidating.

My problem with my own forecast being correct, that of China becoming Top Dog, is unlike most, I view the huge populations of China and the other Asian powerhouse that is never mentioned, India, as their Achilles Heel.

My mind instinctively tells me that those two populations cannot be sustained without walking into a brick wall of total resource depletion from everything to food, water, clean air, health, energy etc. Since my knowledge in the scientific area is very limited I dismiss my instincts on this area to plain ignorance of what technology is capable of.

 I also have a problem in this area of ashamedly having to admit I am still a peak oil adherent, even in the face of the current situation we are in. Having been convinced of this by folks like Nicole Foss, Kunstler, and of course a great many others; I think they were just early. 

My second problem is the rich poor problem that has developed in China. The poor in China, hundreds of millions alone I read, that are camping out around major cities waiting for jobs an witnessing how the lucky live is a ticking time bomb the way I see it. They are not on a food stamp program like the US, getting a welfare check every month, or living in section 8 housing.

Since I see a major negative financial event on the horizon, I lean heavily toward the big inflation outcome, although a deflationary bust would end in the same outcome for China and India; violence and mayhem beyond belief in my view and of course revolution.

The US with it's smaller populous, vast capacity for food growth,  abundance of natural resources compared to the Asians, and of course superior nuclear arsenal and weapons technology may be able to withstand the Asian challenge.

Not much of an analysis, but an honest layman's opinion of obstacles to China becoming Top Dog. If the current situation can continue and be sustained somewhat like it is and these resource and rich poor problems can be solved, as Alan believes, then yes, China becomes the Boss Man.   

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[alan2102]

Surly: "I doubt that anyone knows."

No, of course no one knows.

the US is still the undisputed master of advance weaponry and it's nuclear arsenal is intimidating.

True. But those nukes are a doomsday option, nothing more; i.e. they are not a real option.

My mind instinctively tells me that those two populations cannot be sustained without walking into a brick wall of total resource depletion from everything to food, water, clean air, health, energy etc.

We could discuss each one of those things. I have discussed them to some extent throughout adjacent threads, and in the old china potpourri thread going back a few years. Most of my posts presenting real options and solutions, and effective or semi-effective initiatives underway, are ignored, or are waved-away with vague generalities and statements of religious faith. Which is OK, since I enjoyed writing the posts anyway. But just to let you know. You can verify what I say if you want to dig far enough back.

Bottom line: humanity is capable of addressing all those things. The earth is finite, but human ingenuity and industry are not. Our present civilization could be said in the year 1850 to be outright IMPOSSIBLE. At that time, we were limited to wood and coal and whale oil, and given those technologies, our current civilization really was impossible. But now it is possible. In the year 1980, the idea of using solar panels to power heavy industry seemed outright IMPOSSIBLE. Far too expensive, raw materials, fabrication costs, blah blah blah. And that assessment was true: it WAS impossible, given technologic development at that time. But now it is possible. And lots more things are becoming possible, every year. Material resources are finite, but our ability to use them in progressively smarter ways is not. There is no "brick wall".

Another way to say all this is: things change. Wonder of wonders, things change.

Humans can address all those problems. Whether they WILL or not, remains to be seen. Maybe we'll blow everything up before the problems get solved. I don't know.

I also have a problem in this area of ashamedly having to admit I am still a peak oil adherent, even in the face of the current situation we are in. Having been convinced of this by folks like Nicole Foss, Kunstler, and of course a great many others; I think they were just early. 

Early, and now blindsided by shale gas, which is just now starting to get geared-up in Eurasia and elsewhere. As I've said repeatedly, there's a crap-load of nat gas in Eurasia, easily enough to last a century even at much accelerated rates of use. There might be some oil-crunchy things coming down the pike over the next couple decades, but nothing at all like the peak oil doomers were saying 10 years ago. There's too much of the stuff.

Another problem ("problem") is that the crashing cost of renewables is about to open up new vistas of FF retrieval. There has been concerned discussion of this on realclimate.org's forum (some very smart people, a lot smarter than me) and elsewhere. Cheap, super-high-EROI renewable power makes it possible to retrieve  FFs that would otherwise be stranded because of low EROI. And of course those FFs will be burned, releasing CO2. The future is, hence, NOT all rosy with cheap, high-EROI renewables. We have to somehow keep the damned FFs in the ground where they belong.

My second problem is the rich poor problem that has developed in China. The poor in China, hundreds of millions alone I read that are camping out around major cities waiting for jobs an witnessing how the lucky live is a ticking time bomb the way I see it. They are not on a food stamp program like the US, getting a welfare check every month, or living in section 8 housing.

The difference is that money goes a lot farther in China than here. An annual income of $12,000 IS middle-class in China, because most things are relatively cheap. You are right that there are class-related pressures building in China. But I think maybe less than you imagine. Per capita GDP in China is a little under $8K I believe. They have a poverty rate a bit over 12%; people living on $1.25/day or less. That's a lot of people. Though consider in relation to 40 years ago: 90% poverty rate! Consider also that the large majority of people who are NOT impoverished have a stake in seeing the system continuing roughly as it is. The system is growing and giving everyone a somewhat better standard of living every year, so why not continue it?

If the current situation can continue and be sustained somewhat like it is and these resource and rich poor problems can be solved, as Alan believes, then yes, China becomes the Boss Man.   

Just to back up for a moment and take a MACRO view: it really is not "China" that becomes a boss man. It is intelligence, sound leadership, good planning, boldness, efficiency in execution, wisdom in resource use, and suchlike that becomes boss man. If China has more of that stuff than others, then...

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[alan2102]

Our present civilization could be said in the year 1850 to be outright IMPOSSIBLE.

... and indeed it WAS (effectively) SAID to be impossible by Malthusians, notably by Rev Malthus himself. Malthus predicted that population overshoot would create impossible resource shortages resulting in mass dieoff (sound familiar?).  That's what he said over 200 years ago.  Well, hasn't quite worked out that way. Why not? You tell me. I think it has something to do with those big brains of ours. Homo the clever (though not necessarily wise).

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[Snowleopard]

My latest two cent speculation on where this might go.

USA is China's biggest customer, until that changes don't look for a financial or military confrontation. 

If USA financials byte the dust they take EU with them.  EU is Russia's largest customer and China's second largest.  The Bear-Dragon alliance is not about to shoot itself in the head, but it IS preparing to survive the inevitable.

About 2020 they (Bear-Dragon) may have a fully developed alternate financial system.  If they can indeed get Germany to join up then most of EU will follow.  Russia will be cranking out its new (better than Abrams) tanks by then.  If India joins, such an alliance could be unbeatable in a decade or so.  Nonetheless I don't see an empire emerging out of this any time soon. that requires a unified command structure. 

Alternatively. (And IMHO more likely)  the major multinational corporations gain control of the major governments enough to set up a world system that benefits corporations and lets governments atrophy.  IF that happens we could see a move to up China's influence for awhile, because the "China-way" has the lowest per worker cost.  Once the "China-way" is established, governments are allowed to  devolve into sectors ruled by a corporate world council with some high sounding name.

I like most of what you say Snowleopard, but differ on the total corporate control council

The politicians that rule or dictators are corrupt enough to be bought, bribed, whores for the various corporate pigs but will never in my opinion surrender control of the military button, or perks they enjoy by being in charge.

Corporations also have much different vested intersts depending of their busines while those in power are united in their lust for power and control and their ability to extract bribes for favors from the big pigs. Look no further than the Clintons as but one example of what I mean. Then of course there is Cheney, Bush and the Halliburton crew.

Taking bags of money and favors from the piggies is much too splendid a business for our leaders to ever give up. The corporation's enjoy the setup as well.

Our politicians at the national level, have to be OK'd by the corporations now, to have a chance to "win".

Have you kept track of the interlocking boards of directors controlled by the big banks?  This is the development that makes a Corp/Gov  ruling council possible.

No crystal ball here GO.  Lots of ways it can work out. 

I think RE's suggested outcome is plausible too, but not the timing.  The end of all major governments,  to include my corporate council possibility as a possible world government (if it goes that way) looks to me to be about a century away, short of a worldwide physical  (EMP, nuclear or biological war, mega volcano eruption, nearby supernova etc.) disaster.  Other than disaster conditions preventing it, at least one attempt to put Humptey Dumptey back together should last for awhile.

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