AuthorTopic: The Human Extinction Survey  (Read 17092 times)

Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2015, 08:14:13 AM »
Guy just posted my Plug for The Human Extinction Survey on NBL.

This should get things hopping.  :icon_mrgreen:

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Offline azozeo

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2015, 11:41:10 AM »
Already at the 10 Submission mark.

This is going to be a nightmare to edit and digest for a follow up article ALREADY.

By tomorrow I expect to be SWAMPED.  ::)

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.  :o

RE



Intention is powerful GRASSHOPPER use it wisely....
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face
And stars fill my dream
Im a traveler of both time and space
To be where I have been
To sit with elders of the gentle race
This world has seldom seen
They talk of days for which they sit and wait
All will be revealed

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2015, 01:00:15 PM »
Okay, I filled it out. Very entertaining.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2015, 02:58:11 PM »
Okay, I filled it out. Very entertaining.

You and 77 others have been so entertained while I was sleeping.

AACCCCCKKKK!!!!!

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Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: Early Results
« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2015, 03:32:08 PM »
Early Results are IN!

Heres the basic breakdown of 76 Respondents. There are 3 Empty Records (people who clicked submit without checking any boxes)

20 years 12
50 years 20
100 years 14
2525 8
1000 years 6
Red Giant 10
Universe Ends 2
Never 4

There are actually 4 people (so far) who believe Homo Saps will NEVER go extinct. This is after the When the Universe Ends choice!

Perhaps they are looking at this in a Spiritual manner rather than a corporeal one?

Survey sample obviously comes from Doomers not the general population.

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« Last Edit: May 17, 2015, 04:00:51 PM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2015, 03:37:43 PM »
Any good text responses?

 I mean, other than mine, of course.

Any of your interviewees or other stars of the doomosphere respond? Can't wait to read 'em.
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Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2015, 04:13:07 PM »
Any good text responses?

 I mean, other than mine, of course.

Any of your interviewees or other stars of the doomosphere respond? Can't wait to read 'em.

Haven't gone through the DB to see who responded yet.

PLENTY of Text responses!

Let me see if I can do a wholesale Copy/Paste here on Reasons people gave for their Extinction Timeline...yup, can do that.  :icon_sunny: :icon_sunny:

RE

You can explain your reasons for your Extinction choice here (optional)


Physical reality is a creation of human beings (and other conscious entities), so the question is: when will humans no longer see a need for creating physical reality.

Die-off (net world population reduction) within 10 years, accelerating until most people dead within 20 years, after 50 years the final bunker-dwellers who were positive that their preparations would be good for centuries dying as their spare parts are exhausted and the technicians needed to repair things are already dead.
Extinction of ALL humans (that what extinction is right) will take longer than most think.
There will be very small pockets of comments notices living in primitive ways for a long time.
It is not a single answer it is a distribution of probabilities. I go with 10% chance extinct by 2100, 30% chance extinct by 3000, 90% chance extinct by universe ends.

It would take a strong bioweapon to kill all humans by 2100. I am not as frightened by nukes in all their forms as some. We must get of the earth for long terms survival as many have said.   
Appears we are not wise enough as a species/society  to change course and I put it as a low probability. We may have already passed one or more tipping points.  We definitely are in overshoot and will see population decline radically. But it's conceivable some people may survive. But I think Homo sapiens may be an evolutionary dead end.   It's impossible to predict the timeline.
1.) I believe changes in the atmosphere and soil (not just warming) are killing off creatures we can't see and that we take for granted. It is not just soils that are over-tilled and over-drenched with chemicals which are losing fertility.

2.) Exponential loss of sea ice and glaciers => exponential ocean temp. rise (plus a lot of other bad things). Exponential tree-cover loss => exponential land-temp. rise (plus a lot of other bad things). There's no way around this. People seem not to grasp the implications of the exponential.




In a few thousand years, the environment will have markedly changed from the present, with a temperature profile mimicking the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum with 6 °C (11 °F) temperatures increases. Present temperate climates will become desert (most below 40° latitude), coastal plains flooded (Greenland + West Antarctica = 12 m = 40 ft) and portions of continental interiors will become uninhabitable above ground due to summer heat waves.

Surviving human settlements with a few tens of millions will be distributed around Arctic and Antarctic shorelines, mostly as hunting/fishing settlements, as boreal forests and permafrost leave very poor soil.

Thats a small enough, and widely enough distributed population for natural selection to take hold. Some isolated groups will speciate, and will outcompete H. sapiens, as we outcompeted H. Neanderthalensis. So some descendants will survive. They probably won't have another chance at an industrial revolution, as our generations burnt all the fossil fuels.





Fukushima is fairly localized, so nukes won't be a global problem.   Yes, I know, I know, meltdowns will be a lot LESS localized after industrial collapse, but still not global, even in aggragate.   There WILL be safe zones big enough for even nuke-ignorant posthistoric cavemen to maintain breeding populations.   The strays might die, but not the stay-at-homes.

McPherson's so-called "clathrate gun" is a crock of malarky.   Hydrates can't melt faster than methane's short atmosphearic half-life.

I say the only human-caused threat of total extinction results from extincting everything else, surviving on rats, cockroaches, and each other, and speciating into a new improved windigo.

Fukushima is fairly localized, so nukes won't be a global problem.   Yes, I know, I know, meltdowns will be a lot LESS localized after industrial collapse, but still not global, even in aggragate.   There WILL be safe zones big enough for even nuke-ignorant posthistoric cavemen to maintain breeding populations.   The strays might die, but not the stay-at-homes.

McPherson's so-called "clathrate gun" is a crock of malarky.   Hydrates can't melt faster than methane's short atmosphearic half-life.

I say the only human-caused threat of total extinction results from extincting everything else, surviving on rats, cockroaches, and each other, and speciating into a new improved windigo.






May of course be lots sooner than 20 years, or might be 30 to 50 years for the remnants of what will probably be at least a massive die-back of population.  I have found basically nothing that contravenes Guy McPherson's collected data and conclusions. If abrupt climate change itself does not bring about our own extinction, then our own hardwired firmware in our hunter gatherer brains will insure that we finish ourselves off. The reason being is that of all the major players on the planet, i.e. the US, Russia, China etc. The military's of each probably have a very good idea of the implications of abrupt climate change and I've already constructed a scenario to attempt to ensure that each ones populations are the last to go. It is been said quite famously that no military has ever failed to use its arsenals. If I left anything out I'm quite sure you can fill in the blanks yourself.
Nuclear war
Ebola airborne edition
Antibiotic immune pathogens
Skynet for realz
Global Religious war
Global Racial war
Global Currency war





Extinction means no humans left; I think there will be pockets of humans for a very long while. I honestly don't think we have the ability to predict accurately past about a thousand years, since so many black swans await, but the world is large, with many micro climates - I think some humans will survive. Civilization? Nope.
Most likely measured in hundreds of thousands of years.


I believe that some super rich people will find a way to survive must longer than the middle and lower classes.   

I like that song

If one means completely extinct, never.  Collapse will happen soon enough to save the remaining few.  If you mean a 90% population reduction (to 700 million or fewer), then it will happen within one hundred years.


i believe in Guy Mcpherson and Dennis Meadows.



There are too many Critical Menaces in separate areas (Oil, Climate Change, Nuclear, Financial System, Soil, etc...)  that are attacking in parallel. Additionally there are probably bunch of Black Swans we even have no idea about behind the corner.



nuke meltdowns and methane bomb


The trees are dying, the bees are dying, the seas are dying...all large mammals are going away, we will too.

You can see it everywhere....the Everglades are drying up and have a plastic coating.  Near Flagstaff, AZ the trees all have brown dry needles...same near Silverthorne, Colorado.

Hornets abound, but honeybees are very rare.......used to be the opposite.


My assumption is that 4C of global warming is unavoidable this century, which means higher temperatures are reasonably unavoidable given potential climate feedbacks. It should be easy to reason why this amount of increase will kill billions. This climate won't be stable enough to allow much technological infrastructure, and access to technology sustaining resources will be greatly reduced in any case. Our chances of fighting disease will be compromised, and new diseases will be rampant given the ever-changing ecological niches a harsh, unstable climate will rapidly cycle around. Humans will not be able to cope with living in a disease-evolving blast furnace. Within 5 centuries, we will be extinct.

But we should leave stone plaques around the world with the names of those who are most responsible for killing us, along with pictures of their mansions.

A combination of resource depletion (fresh water,oil,coal) and climate change (no food) will create a competitive situation so intense, mankind will wipe itself out in large-scale murder. It's inevitable.We  are not able to cooperate on a planet-wide,or even continent-wide scale. Not without huge energy surpluses.Either someone's gonna hit the red button or we will go tribal and the tribes will battle to the death. Let's not forget about the 400 + nuclear power plants falling into neglect either.....


The current systems in place won't change.
Don't know.



Humans have become weak due to climate control and iphones, but we still have the genetics to survive in nature, and many of us still possess the skills necessary to survive without petroleum energy. 
If we fail as a technological society our half life time is commensurable with other species, counted in megayears.

If we recover after the population bottleneck in this century as a technological society we will go extinct or amalgamate with machines as Anthropocene transitions to Mechanocene.

The collapse and the following extinction event will mercilessly cut down a huge number of humankind. Nevertheless, we are far too many and, with or brain, far too well adapted to go completely extinct. Until a better predator comes along. That will not happen anytime soon.

With the collapse, the whole climate change enchilada will be´come a non-issue.   

We can't even get along now with ability to have 24/7 McBullshit availability.
When the 96 hour foodchain eggtimer runs out of clicks & ticks, all hell brakes
loose & the 1st responders head home to be with their loved ones. Game over.
Methane fueled fireballs WILL rain down on us regularly by 2020 for the finale.
Global warming leading to collapse of biodiversity and thus ecosystems and all major food supplies.
Althoug we have many problems which assure a large population knockdown, EXTINCTION of every last Homo Sap will take a while.
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Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2015, 04:30:51 PM »
Went through the list of Respondents.

One Collapse Star in there so far.

Dmitry Orlov.

Not too much detail in his text responses though.

Diners who have dropped in and also dropped in a Name or Handle are

RE
LD
AZ

Eddie did not drop in his name so I can't identify which responses are his.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2015, 04:41:10 PM »
Sure I did. I spent a lot of time on those. Hope they made it through.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2015, 04:49:57 PM »
Of the first 76 Respondents, most of them say they get their Daily Dose of Doom from the MSM.  However, that is the Default choice, most of them simply did not make a choice.

Of those who did choose their main Doom Channel:

13 from NBL
10 from the Diner
4 from Zero Hedge
3 from Economic Undertow
3 from Our Finite World
3 from Global Research
2 from The Archdruid Report
1 from The Daily Impact
1 from The Economic Collapse

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Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #25 on: May 17, 2015, 04:53:36 PM »
Sure I did. I spent a lot of time on those. Hope they made it through.

I will look again.

I TOLD YOU TO SAVE YOUR REPLIES AS A TEXT FILE BEFORE SUBMITTING!

What time did you submit?  Maybe I can pick it out by the time stamp.

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Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #26 on: May 17, 2015, 05:02:32 PM »
Sure I did. I spent a lot of time on those. Hope they made it through.

I will look again.

I TOLD YOU TO SAVE YOUR REPLIES AS A TEXT FILE BEFORE SUBMITTING!

What time did you submit?  Maybe I can pick it out by the time stamp.

RE

Do you see your reply to the Reasons Text box in the list I pasted here?

If your reply is not in that list, then your record did not take.

You will have to do a Do Over.

This time, SAVE AS A TEXT FILE FIRST BEFORE SUBMITTING

I've been down this road myself many times.  You only learn it the Hard Way.

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Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: Doomer Demographics
« Reply #27 on: May 17, 2015, 05:30:41 PM »
OK, here's the Age Range breakdown for the first respondents:

<18       0
18-25    4
26-35    6
36-50   20
52-65   34
>65       7

However, we are now up to 90 Submissions, so this distribution may change some over time.

I'm not going to do another download of the data until tomorrow, maybe not until Tuesday, so I have a more complete set of data for doing the Results Follow-Up Article.

The distribution should not surprise anyone who cruises the Doom-o-sphere.  Mainly Boomers & GenX.

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Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: SUBMISSIONS NOW IN TRIPLE DIGITS!
« Reply #28 on: May 17, 2015, 07:06:31 PM »
SHIT.  I thought it would take at least a week to get 10 people to fill this thing out.   :o

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Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: STATS BATTLE ON NBL!!!
« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2015, 08:37:06 PM »
I am in battle over the validity of the stats collected by The Human Extinction Survey with Mo Flow over on NBL in the Plug Thread over there for the Survey.  MF is the Back End IT Admin for NBL since we moved it off the Diner Server a couple of months ago.  He fills the same role Doomer Support does here.

Below is the text from my latest response to MF on this topic.

This is getting REALLY ENTERTAINING!  :icon_mrgreen:

Survey now @ 111 Respondents on the first day!

RE

Quote from: RE
Oh Good Grief. Now you have got me going MF.

I know precisely what the readership is of NBL, it was on my server for 6 months or so, remember? I know how much bandwidth it uses, page hits, visitor counts etc. I am not going to pitch out these stats, they are private. If Guy wants to pitch them out he can do so.

I will pitch out the publicly available Stats from Alexa however.

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/guymcpherson.com

Current Global Ranking: 931,176
Current USA Ranking: 399,200
Bounce Rate: 37.5%
Daily Page Views/Visitor: 1.80
Daily Time on Site: 4:14

Heres the current Alexa Stats for the Diner:

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/doomsteaddiner.net

Current Global Ranking: 381,103
Current USA Ranking: 82,971
Bounce Rate: 13.30%
Daily Page Views/Visitor: 29.00
Daily Time on Site: 125:33

There are many reasons for this, because of the way Alexa collects their stats. However, in neither the case of the Diner or NBL have either one reached the threshold where Alexa will collect and store audience demographics, so you cannot possibly know what your audience demographics are unless you are paying for the service from some other company, and I am sure Guy is not paying for that. I sure wont myself for the Diner.

All the Survey shows in terms of Demographics is what they are for very active participants in the Doomosphere. Only people who are really concerned with this topic are going to fill out that survey, it is freaking LONG. I find it remarkable as many people have filled it out IN DETAIL already as they have. Its already into
Triple Digits in submissions, and it hasnt even been up for a full day yet!

Its pretty statistically valid now for the active participants in the doomosphere. Its a remarkably small number of people globally who spend a lot of time on these websites you know. I can give you estimates on those numbers too, its no more than 30,000 different people.

Of your page hits, at least half of them come from Bots & Spiders run by either the main Search Engines or Security Agencies of many different countries. I know when the Bots hit the Diner, I can see it on the server. Because you are swamped with Bot Hits, its impossible to get good demographics until your site is IMMENSELY popular, like Zero Hedge level.

Anyhow, the survey is what it is, anyone who does not understand the limitations of such a survey doesnt understand stats very well.

What you can say for sure here though is that of the 13 Batters from NBL who so far responded to the survey, most of them are in the older age categories.

BTW, the Survey now has collected over 100 Respondents! Triple Digits on the first day! I never figure it would get that many so fast.

RE
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