AuthorTopic: The Human Extinction Survey  (Read 22941 times)

Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: The Exit Poll
« Reply #30 on: May 17, 2015, 10:47:16 PM »
This is an Early Results Table of Primary Multiple Choice Categories in The Human Extinction Survey, with 122 current Respondents.

This Table is not yet sortable in the Forum, however it can be copied to Excel or Open Office and be sorted and/or filtered there.


RE

Homo Saps will go Extinct in: How many people will be left on Earth in 50 years? The Proximal Cause of Human Extinction will be: If Homo Sap does NOT go Extinct in the next Century, the remaining Homo Saps will be: If Extinction of Homo Sap in the Near Term could have been avoided, the last time it could have been avoided was: If Homo Saps do NOT go Extinct in the next Century, I believe the primary form of Political Organization will be:
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 7B-10B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Large Nation-State-Fascism
20 Years 100M-1B   Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Large Nation-State Communism
50 Years <10,000 Global Thermonuclear War Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural It never was avoidable in the Near Term Large Nation-State-Fascism
When the Universe Ends 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Large Nation-State Democracy
  4B-6B Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Other
When the Universe Ends 4B-6B Sun Going Red Giant Hunter-Gatherers 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 100M-1B Global Thermonuclear War Other (explain below) 2000 (prior to 911) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Large Nation-State Communism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In the Year 2525 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural   Tribalism/Localism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural   Tribalism/Localism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 4B-6B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 2000 (prior to 911) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 2000 (prior to 911) Anarchic Utopia
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 100M-1B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Universe Ends 100K-1M Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Large Nation-State-Fascism
50 Years 100K-1M Global Thermonuclear War Other (explain below) 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Anarchic Mad Max
50 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 2000 (prior to 911) Large Nation-State-Fascism
In the Year 2525 1B-3B Supervolcanic Eruption Agricultural & Permacultural 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Large Nation-State-Fascism
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years 100K-1M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years 1B-3B Global Thermonuclear War Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Anarchic Mad Max
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 100K-1M Sun Going Red Giant Other (explain below)   Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In the Year 2525 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Other
20 Years <10,000 Geological Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term  
50 Years None Geological Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
20 Years <10,000 Geological Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term  
100 Years 10K-100K Global Thermonuclear War Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years 100K-1M Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Large Nation-State-Fascism
Never 4B-6B   Still Industrial & Technological   Large Nation-State Communism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Other
100 Years 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
Never 4B-6B Global Thermonuclear War Still Industrial & Technological 2000 (prior to 911) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 10K-100K Global Thermonuclear War Agricultural & Permacultural It never was avoidable in the Near Term Anarchic Mad Max
100 Years 100K-1M Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
           
50 Years 100K-1M Global Thermonuclear War Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In 1000 Years 4B-6B Anthropogenic Climate Change   1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Large Nation-State-Fascism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural   Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Anarchic Mad Max
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Anarchic Mad Max
50 Years 10K-100K Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In the Year 2525 None Global Thermonuclear War None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 100M-1B   Agricultural & Permacultural   Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years None Geological Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 100M-1B   Agricultural & Permacultural   Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 100M-1B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 250,000 Years Ago (accepted figure for the control of Fire by Homo Sap) Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Geological Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Anarchic Utopia
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years 100K-1M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years 10K-100K Global Thermonuclear War Still Industrial & Technological 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Large Nation-State Democracy
In the Year 2525 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years None Global Thermonuclear War None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 1B-3B Geological Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Large Nation-State-Fascism
When the Universe Ends 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change   1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Large Nation-State-Fascism
           
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Global Thermonuclear War Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Global Thermonuclear War None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Anarchic Mad Max
In the Year 2525 1B-3B Global Thermonuclear War Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Geological Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 2000 (prior to 911) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years 7B-10B Anthropogenic Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In the Year 2525 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Anarchic Mad Max
Never 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years 100K-1M Global Thermonuclear War Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Anarchic Mad Max
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Large Nation-State-Fascism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In 1000 Years 1B-3B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural It never was avoidable in the Near Term Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Anarchic Mad Max
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 2000 (prior to 911) Tribalism/Localism
100 Years >10B Global Thermonuclear War Still Industrial & Technological 2000 (prior to 911) Large Nation-State Democracy
100 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
50 Years None Geological Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Global Thermonuclear War Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
100 Years 1M-100M Global Thermonuclear War None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct 2000 (prior to 911) Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In the Year 2525 4B-6B Anthropogenic Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Large Nation-State-Fascism
100 Years 100M-1B Geological Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1850 (Beginning of the Age of Oil) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
20 Years None Anthropogenic Climate Change None, we will be Extinct It never was avoidable in the Near Term Other
100 Years 100M-1B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Large Nation-State-Fascism
      Other (explain below) It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
50 Years <10,000 Global Thermonuclear War None, we will be Extinct 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
When the Universe Ends 7B-10B Sun Going Red Giant Agricultural & Permacultural   Large Nation-State Democracy
50 Years <10,000 Anthropogenic Climate Change Still Industrial & Technological 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Anarchic Mad Max
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Sun Going Red Giant Other (explain below) 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
In the Year 2525 4B-6B Asteroid Impact Still Industrial & Technological 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Other
Never 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
When the Sun Goes Red Giant 1B-3B Global Thermonuclear War Other (explain below) 10,000 BC (Beginning of the Age of Agriculture) Warlordism/neo-Feudalism
In the Year 2525 4B-6B Anthropogenic Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1970 (Back to the Land Movement) Tribalism/Localism
20 Years None Geological Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers It never was avoidable in the Near Term Tribalism/Localism
100 Years 1M-100M Anthropogenic Climate Change Hunter-Gatherers 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Anarchic Mad Max
In the Year 2525 100M-1B Geological Climate Change Agricultural & Permacultural 1750 (Beginning of the Industrial Revolution) Tribalism/Localism
« Last Edit: May 17, 2015, 10:54:04 PM by RE »
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Offline RE

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The Human Extinction Survey: Preliminary Stats Results
« Reply #31 on: May 18, 2015, 05:06:53 AM »
Doing a preliminary sort on the early table of responses to The Human Extinction Survey, the largest number of responders for any single category believe there will be NOBODY left alive in 50 years, aka we will already be EXTINCT.  That number of Uber Doom responders in this category is 25. 

This should not be a surprise since we are getting a lot of responders from NBL.

However, there are significantly more Full Doomers with a variety of estimates on remaining population in 50 years.  These are probably mostly Diners, although I haven't sorted to be certain of that.

23 Positive Thinking Full Doomers  think we will have between 1-3B Naked Apes on the Blue Marble.
19 Full Doomers believe there will be less than 10,000 Human Souls still walking the Earth at this time.
14 Georgia Guidestones followers believe there will be between 100M-1B Illuminati & Survivalist Preppers still left
8 Full Doomers think there will be between 100K-1M folks still scraping out a living in 50 years
1 Delusional person thinks there will be more than 10B Homo Saps on the planet in 50 years

I am one of the Georgia Guidestone number tally for the 50 year timeline.  By a century, I'd cut it down to under 1M.

After that, it's REBOUND time from the Undershoot for those who went through Hell and KEPT GOING.



RE
« Last Edit: May 18, 2015, 05:10:41 AM by RE »
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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #32 on: May 18, 2015, 06:29:19 AM »
Submissions now at 143, I am pretty sure we will pass 200 by the end of Day 2.

Amazing.  Never thought so many people would fill out a survey this long and complex.  I was hoping for 10 Diners to do it over the whole week.  ::)

Be careful what you wish for.  You just might GET IT:o

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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #33 on: May 18, 2015, 07:29:08 AM »
It's a Monday here. I'll redo mine after work.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #34 on: May 18, 2015, 07:48:26 AM »
Submissions now at 143, I am pretty sure we will pass 200 by the end of Day 2.

Amazing.  Never thought so many people would fill out a survey this long and complex.  I was hoping for 10 Diners to do it over the whole week.  ::)

Be careful what you wish for.  You just might GET IT:o

RE

As you will see from the feeds, I am flogging the hell out of it on social media, and will continue for the rest of the week.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #35 on: May 18, 2015, 07:59:31 AM »
It's a Monday here. I'll redo mine after work.

DO NOT FORGET TO COMPOSE & SAVE IN YOUR TEXT EDITOR BEFORE SUBMISSION THIS TIME!  :icon_sunny:

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The Human Extinction Survey: SUBMISSION UPDATE 150
« Reply #36 on: May 18, 2015, 08:30:42 AM »
Submissions to The Human Extinction Survey now @ 150 Doomers.  :icon_sunny:

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Offline monsta666

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #37 on: May 18, 2015, 01:41:01 PM »
Just submitted my response. Let's hope there will be 666 submissions in this survey. :icon_sunny:

Offline Eddie

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My Excellent Human Extinction Responses, Version 2.0
« Reply #38 on: May 18, 2015, 05:43:41 PM »
If my survey doesn't post, then fuck it. You can read my answers right here.

Homo Saps will go Extinct in how many years?:


I think we're all on shaky ground when we prognosticate along these lines.  Although I can accept that there might be very significant reductions in population within the near term future, I just can't see 100% extinction within less than 100 years, because not all areas of the planet are going to be impacted the same, and I think it's logical to expect some locales to fare better than others as climate change takes its toll.

And lets face it. We're talking about geologic time. In geologic time 20 years and 100 years are both infinitesimally short periods of time, and in the same range.

To me climate change is the most serious threat to Homo saps, and is the likeliest to result in NTE. Other existential threats such as war, economic collapse, loss of fossil fuel energy, and population overshoot, are all likely to result in population decline, but generally don't threaten mankind's continued existence.

So I said 100 years. I'd add that if we make it through the next hundred years, or perhaps two hundred, that would indicate we might hang on as a species for some additional millennia. Because it would mean that we've learned to cope, and found a more sustainable path. Or reduced our numbers to a level the planet can easily support, anyway.

How many people will be left on Earth in 50 years?

Once again, this is guesswork. But the evidence suggests to me that the decline in population that's on the horizon will be huge.
We're at 7 billion now. It would have to drop well below a billion . I said 100K to 1 million. This is predicated on the absolute failure of almost everyone now living to make any preparations for the hard times ahead. If people were getting ready, I'd up my estimates by perhaps a power of ten. But hardly anybody is....

But some people will be able to cope with some problems, and others will be able to cope with others. Indigenous people, like South American Indios who live outside the corporate dominated modern societies, will be better at surviving economic collapse. They won't even notice that one.

 Some modern folks will cope with climate change better than others, at least for a while, because they've considered the possibilities of taking food production indoors, using whole systems approaches to agriculture, and making their own energy. Husbanding water.

Modern people with HG primitive living skills (only a few of these people are out there, as best I can tell) might fare better if war is what thins the herd.

People are resilient, and the ability to adapt depends a lot on the speed of onset of whatever catastrophe turns out to be the Big One. If we have an economic collapse first, and climate change turns out to be a slower process, then more people will survive for a longer time, at least.



The Proximal Cause of Human Extinction will be:


As I said before, climate change is the most serious threat. Whether it's anthropogenic or not is a moot point in my opinion, even though I believe it is related to our burning fossil fuels.

But there are four horsemen of our current apocalypse:

Climate Change

War, with Global Thermonuclear War being the worst case

Currency/Economic Collapse

Decline in available energy


Near Term Human Extinction can still be avoided if:

Transition communities and eco-villages are the path to salvation. But it quite likely might be too late for them to turn the tide. It's worth a try though, and sustainable living should be our top priority as individuals and as communities.

Political changes are going to be too slow...too many entrenched powerful interests. The current system is most likely to crash and burn like a worn out train running off the rails at high speed.

Violent revolution, while it might be quite possible, is unlikely to help much. Killing people to promote world peace is not a rational approach to change.

If Homo saps does not go extinct  in the next century, the remaining Homo saps will be:

Anyone left is going to be either subsistence farming, engaged in permaculture, or living a HG life. Maybe some of all of those.

Permaculture principles really lead to the kind of natural environment that would support a HG way of life, if you think about it. It's really restoration agriculture in action. It doesn't preclude farming by means of sustainable agriculture, however.


If Extinction of Homo Sap in the Near Term could have been avoided, the last time it could have been avoided was:



I don't think large numbers of people were aware of the threat until around 1970, although careful reading will show you there were some few who saw it coming long before that.

However, that era, when I was a teenager myself, saw movements arise that might have made a tremendous difference, had they come to full fruition. I personally have to take responsibility for my own selfish inaction. Like many young people of that era, I chose to pursue my own personal narrative and let the planet and the wild species down. That's my hard lesson for this lifetime.

Since we are now suffering the effects of the fossil fuels we were burning then, and it's out of control already, I see hell to pay in forty more years.


If Homo Saps do NOT go Extinct in the next Century, I believe the primary form of Political Organization will be:


It's my belief that top down centralized governments and empires will be a thing of the past. Local and/or tribal , perhaps with some trade over shorter distances, will be the prevailing paradigm for any remaining humans....at least I'd say that if we can make some adaptation, learn to live sustainably in smaller groups and raise enough local food to have any kind of society at all.

Failing that it would be Mad Max.

Or Cormac McCarthy's The Road, more like. Read that one for some light entertainment if you haven't yet.


The Primary Blame for the current condition of Humanity can best be placed on:


Playing the blame game is a waste of time in my book.

 Yes the leadership has let us down, most definitely. They have been motivated by greed, and failed to consider the needs of the people, plants and animals they had stewardship over. But you can't leverage the knowledge of that into anything worthwhile.

Instead of laying blame or justifying our own less than stellar behavior, it's best to get busy trying to build a lifeboat of some kind. Educate yourself on how to live sustainably and do it. Win or lose, it's the right path.


In the face of the potential for Near Term Human Extinction, the best course of action is:



Unlike some people, I see no contradiction between living a life of excellence and still trying to survive. Trying to thrive, actually, in the face of difficult odds, is a worthy goal. Learn to grow food, save water, make your own power, and experiment with any technology that ultimately leads to a more sustainable path.  Sequester carbon. Personally.

Hope is hard to kill. Where there's life there's hope. That's a very true saying.


« Last Edit: May 18, 2015, 08:36:19 PM by Eddie »
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Offline RE

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Re: My Excellent Human Extinction Responses, Version 2.0
« Reply #39 on: May 18, 2015, 05:54:09 PM »
It took this time.  You are IN the Great Human Extinction Survey!  :icon_sunny:

Now at 172 Respondents.

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #40 on: May 18, 2015, 06:04:27 PM »
If you look back at the server logs, you should be able to get a count of the number of people (excluding bots) who got to the survey page and DIDN'T go on and fill it in.  One possible reason for this is that they couldn't understand what you are trying to learn from the survey, so thought it pointless.  (You DO know what you are trying to learn, don't you?)

With such a numerically tiny sample, and with it being a self-selected sample, it isn't going to be representative of the population at large, or even the internet population, or even the English-speaking internet population.  Only 1 Delusional implies people who don't believe in Collapse, don't fill the form in.

I don't know how the software stores its data (MySQL ?), and how text fields are validated before written to MySQL, but there is a danger that some hackerbot will enter something that will crash/delete the database - they try it multiple times a day on the databases I control.

I suppose you have to practice using the tool. :-)
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Offline RE

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Re: My Excellent Human Extinction Responses, Version 2.0
« Reply #41 on: May 18, 2015, 06:10:22 PM »
BTW E, those were EXCELLENT  :icon_sunny: responses, not too much different from my own.  Although I haven't written out full versions yet, I just dropped in short versions when I first tested the DB. I'll probably write them out for the first article based on the Survey.

One main difference was when the END will actually arrive for Homo Sap.  You can guess when I said that will occur.  ::)

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/yesyhQkYrQM" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/yesyhQkYrQM</a>[/embed]

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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #42 on: May 18, 2015, 06:28:18 PM »
If you look back at the server logs, you should be able to get a count of the number of people (excluding bots) who got to the survey page and DIDN'T go on and fill it in.  One possible reason for this is that they couldn't understand what you are trying to learn from the survey, so thought it pointless.  (You DO know what you are trying to learn, don't you?)

With such a numerically tiny sample, and with it being a self-selected sample, it isn't going to be representative of the population at large, or even the internet population, or even the English-speaking internet population.  Only 1 Delusional implies people who don't believe in Collapse, don't fill the form in.

I don't know how the software stores its data (MySQL ?), and how text fields are validated before written to MySQL, but there is a danger that some hackerbot will enter something that will crash/delete the database - they try it multiple times a day on the databases I control.

I suppose you have to practice using the tool. :-)

No issue if the Bots crash it.  The Database Cavalry From California will ride to the rescue.

Seriously, I just downloaded the most recent update with 172 records in it, so even if it crashed today I already got plenty of juicy meat upon which to compose numerous articles if I don't croak in the next month.

As to whether Bots are filling out the survey, no I don't think so based on reading the responses that are in there.  Unless they have created a spectacularly good DoomerBot, these are real Homo Saps  who are filling out the survey.

The Survey is TOTALLY skewed towards Doomers.  Just about nobody who is not a Doomer is going to fill it out.  However, within the community of Doomers, it does give you a decent idea of the distribution between Uber Doomers and Full Doomers.

Is it a statistically valid survey?  No it is not, at least not at the current number of respondents.  However, it is a very good Snapshot of attitudes that are out there on these topics.  It also is remarkable to me how many people went ahead and answered every question IN DETAIL, filling in the Text Areas, not just the Multiple Choice Radio Buttons.  Seriously, I only figured 10 Diners would take the time to do that and it would take at least a week to get that many.  172 in less than 2 days is astonishing to me.

RE
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The Human Extinction Survey: Who is Responding?
« Reply #43 on: May 18, 2015, 08:12:06 PM »
Here is the List of Names or Handles of people who chose to Identify themselves so far in The Human Extinction Survey.

Less than half of all respondents so far drop on an identifying tag.

Notable Bloggers so far responding, Ugo Bardi, Steve From Virginia, Dmitry Orlov, Jason Heppenstall, Allan Stromfeldt Christensen

Diners Responding: Eddie, Monsta, Surly, JoeD, Ka, Uncle Bob, Lucid Dreams, RE

Full List

Eddie
Hiruit Nguyse
NoChicasGordas
Mark Austin
sunweb
Mike Rauh
monsta
Northwest Resident
Ugo Bardi
steve from virginia
andyuk
Annette Bentley
Jason Heppenstall
Looongerbeard
John Doyle
mess time
Caevstroy
Surly1
Allan Stromfeldt Christensen
UnhingedBecauseLucid
Shallel
opensheart
TimBloom
L Racine
Michelle Murrain
Craig Anderson
Mack
Wester
karl
Joe D
foggy sunset
Glenn Daniel
Lucid Man
GermanDude
Zoltar
DLS
ub
bradhp
Bill Sipprell
Ka, if you haven't already guessed
illdill
Ed Pell in a bad mood
Lidia17
Sanpaku
Huey
Huey
Mike D.
Wootz
acomfort
CathyM
Artfarce
Ron Michaud
Khannea
U4ian
Ken Barrows
Frans Adiwinata
RobM
Andrzej Bobula
Luke Werner Lopez
Daniel Reich
Dmitry Orlov
luciddreams
eleitl
passive solar
HnH
Azozeo
John of Wallan
Reverse Engineer
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Re: The Human Extinction Survey
« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2015, 05:20:31 PM »
209 Responses to the Survey!  :icon_sunny:

Guy McPherson has declared the survey stupid, this after he published my article announcing it.  ::)  So he won't be dropping in his opinion.  However, numerous of his acolytes have dropped in there, and they follow the party line.

86 people have added their name or internet handle to the survey:

(No longer) a Pilot on NBL.  Real names is Patrick Galvin
acomfort
Albert Bates
Aliz
Allan Stromfeldt Christensen
Andrzej Bobula
andyuk
Annette Bentley
Artfarce
Azozeo
big ken
Bill Sipprell
bradhp
Caevstroy
CathyM
Chris Kuykendall
Craig Anderson
Daniel Reich
DLS
Dmitry Orlov
Ed Pell in a bad mood
Eddie
edhep
eleitl
Etyerepetyere
foggy sunset
Frans Adiwinata
GermanDude
Glenn Daniel
Hiruit Nguyse
HnH
Huey
Huey
illdill
Into Destiny
Jason Heppenstall
Joe D
John Doyle
John of Wallan
K-Dog
Ka, if you haven't already guessed
karl
Ken
Ken Barrows
Khannea
L Racine
Lidia17
Liz
Looongerbeard
Lucid Man
luciddreams
Luke Werner Lopez
Mack
Mark Austin
mess time
Michelle Murrain
Mike D.
Mike Rauh
monsta
Moose
NoChicasGordas
Northwest Resident
Nosferatu
opensheart
passive solar
Poppy Joe
Reverse Engineer
RobM
Ron Michaud
Ross
Sanpaku
Shallel
St. Roy
steve from virginia
sunweb
Surly1
thomas k@we_re_DEAD
TimBloom
U4ian
ub
Ugo Bardi
UnhingedBecauseLucid
Wester
Wootz
yt75
Zoltar
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