AuthorTopic: Stratfor: ISIIS & the rise of Warlord Entrepreneurs  (Read 457 times)

Offline roamer

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Stratfor: ISIIS & the rise of Warlord Entrepreneurs
« on: July 07, 2015, 01:36:30 PM »
Very interesting article over at Fabius Maximus about the economics of warlords and terrorist groups.

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Summary: This analysis by Stratfor discusses the adoption of modern business methods by insurgents, something long discussed here. Itís progress that mainstream geopolitical analysts are finding more analytically useful perspectives on jihadists rather than the usual hackneyed labels. Itís learning, that if continued might make us a threat to them.
http://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/07/07/stratfor-warlord-entrepreneurs-naxalite-isis-87031/[/i]

In part it argues that the rise of these groups is almost purely economic, but I think the analogy below is off a bit....


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A shrieking feedback loop kicks in when failing states spawn illicit economies that in turn prey on the failing states from whence they came. ďOnce the social fabric is torn, the warlord entrepreneur is like the clotting blood, the scab forming over the wound.Ē A vivid image, but how is this any different from earlier warlord threats?

What comes to my mind instead of scabs is that these groups are catabolic cells in a declining system.  At a certain point as legit economic opportunities in a stagnating or declining system stall and falter destructive opportunities provide a higher rate of return and so the system goes catabolic.  I should be more specific though with the catabolic description as businesses have always gone through anabolic and catabolic cycles.  What makes this one different is that it is catabolizing the systems and companies that give the state legitimacy.  In my mind it seems likely that we here in the US are far from immune from this sort of catabolic behaviour, particularly if broad legitimate economic opportunity remains elusive en masse.

 

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