AuthorTopic: Syria - Russia - US  (Read 18253 times)

Offline edpell

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #90 on: October 31, 2015, 09:57:58 AM »
The terrorists know how to do maneuver warfare, to bring the fight to the soft civilian underbelly of the enemy.

Offline RE

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #91 on: October 31, 2015, 02:31:15 PM »
No Survivors After Russian Airplane With 224 On Board Crashes In Egypt's Sinai
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-31/no-survivors-after-russian-airplane-224-board-crashes-egypts-sinai-peninsula

"According to the airline, the cause of the tragic accident was not human error."


Perhaps two can play the downed airliner game.

I wonder how they took it out?  They would need a pretty good missile and tracking system to hit it at cruising altitude from the ground, and I don't think ISIS has any Fighter Jets that could have done it from the air.  Which leaves a suicide mission, which unless the security is really bad at the airport would have to be done without guns and would take more than one guy to be able to break into the cockpit, overpower the pilots and send the aircraft into a dive.  This also seems unlikely.  Perhaps some maintenance personnel were able to slip a bomb with remote control or on a timer into the plane before take off?

Of all the unlikely choices, the missile and the on board bomb seem most likely.  Whatever method, if ISIS has the ability to regularly knock down commercial aviation flights, this will really up the ante down there.

One also wonders who was aboard that plane?  Just Ruskie Touristas visiting the Pyramids?  There are lots of those flying on the biggest Airbus in the fleet?

Finally, the age of some of these aircraft is getting pretty long in the tooth.  1997 manufacture for this one, almost 20 years old.  Driving a 20 year old car that doesn't break down is pretty lucky and one thing.  Flying in 20 year old aircraft is another thing entirely.  Perhaps the plane failed on its own and ISIS just took credit for it.

RE
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #92 on: October 31, 2015, 02:52:15 PM »
Yes, I would guess at bomb on timer.



Flight data - the column labelled ∆Vert is the change in vertical speed in feet per minute.
There are 2-3 instruments giving readings (rows) with slight time differences on the ground when the data arrived.


[column labels at bottom by Palloy]

Egyptian PM visiting site, note flat location, not mountainous as in some reports
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #93 on: October 31, 2015, 03:51:42 PM »
Whatever brought it down, the ruskys now have a nice excuse to go into egypt.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #94 on: November 01, 2015, 12:23:43 PM »
This aerial video shows the wings and the front half of the fuselage lying, charred, with nothing behind it. Debris scattered widely.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Enb4soLA2Tw" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Enb4soLA2Tw</a>
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #95 on: November 03, 2015, 08:56:05 PM »
https://www.rt.com/news/320675-russia-us-exercises-syria/
Russian, US air forces hold joint exercises in Syria
3 Nov, 2015

Russian and US air forces have staged joint drills to practice air safety measures in the skies over Syria, according to the Russian General Staff, which also reported that its military has begun to coordinate with Syria’s moderate opposition forces.

In the course of the drills, both the air crews and ground services of Russian and US forces drilled procedures aimed at avoiding problems in case the two countries’ military aircraft find themselves in dangerous proximity in Syria’s skies, Russian General Staff spokesman Colonel General Andrey Kartapolov said on Tuesday.

“The exercises took place at 11:00 Moscow time (08:00 GMT) [on Tuesday],” he added.

The joint drills come after Moscow and Washington signed a “deconfliction” memorandum last week to ensure air safety over Syria.

Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Captain Jeff Davis has denied that the action was a joint exercise, instead calling it a “communications test.”

“The test was conducted. This test was a prudent measure solely to ensure that, in the event coalition aircraft encounter a Russian aircraft during operations in Syria, one of the established and agreed upon modes of communication in the agreement functioned,” Davis said in a statement.

The spokesperson stressed that Russian-US military cooperation is still formally on hold.

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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #96 on: November 04, 2015, 07:30:03 PM »
Of course the US could be putting in some F-15Cs just because the Russians put in some Su-30s (both being dog-fight specialists).  And they could be just to back up Turkish planes in case of any confrontation.  In both cases this could be because that's all they've got available, or just to send a message.

As far as the Russian troops goes, "as many as 4,000 Russian troops" doesn't mean 4,000.  They need 1,000 to secure the main air base, and some to secure the other 3 helicopter bases.  They don't want to become sitting targets for ISIS, so they have to operate outside the wire.

Yes, someone could make a mistake and it all goes horribly wrong, but it certainly doesn't necessarily mean Pentagon is preparing for dog-fights with the Russians.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-04/us-spec-ops-already-ground-syria-sources-say-russian-troop-presence-grows-4000
US Spec Ops Already On The Ground In Syria Sources Say, As Russian Troop Presence Grows To 4,000
Tyler Durden
11/04/2015

On Tuesday evening, we noted that the US is set to send F-15C Eagle twin-engine fighters to Incirlik. This suggests that the Pentagon is preparing for air-to-air combat with the Russians.

As hyperbolic as that might sound, there’s really no alternative explanation 
for why Washington would send the fighters to Syria unless of course ISIS and/or the mishmash of rebels and militants fighting for control of the country have air forces no one has ever heard about.

Indeed, Russia made a similar move by sending Sukhoi Su-30s to Latakia and according to several sources, those planes had a run-in with Israeli jets over Lebanon last month.

The interesting thing, from our perspective anyway, is that Lebanese sources were out on Wednesday claiming that US spec ops are already on the ground - and they’re operating in the west. Here’s Sputnik:

    US military advisors are alleged to have started training so-called moderate rebels near the city of Salma in the Latakia province in what amounts to breaking a pledge not to put US boots on the ground in Syria, Lebanon's satellite television channel al-Mayadeen reported, citing an unnamed military source.

Now bear in mind, this is Russian media citing an unnamed Lebanese source, so that would be a bit like American media citing an unnamed Saudi correspondent, but still, even the suggestion that Washington has placed "advisers" in Salma is alarming. That is, the going assumption was that these spec ops forces would be placed with the YPG or somewhere near Raqqa to avoid even the appearance that The Pentagon is set to place troops with soldiers that are in direct contact with Iranian ground forces and as such could potentially get hit with Russian airstrikes.

Of course we won't get much in the way of clarity from Washington. US Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Anne Patterson told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday that the "the activities and location of the special forces are classified." Patterson also said that "Russia's military intervention has dangerously exacerbated an already complex environment," on the way to claiming that "the opposition puts up a very strong fight."

Obviously, it's difficult to know where even to start in terms of analyzing that bit of nonsense. First, the situation is indeed "already complex" thanks to Washington, Riyadh, Ankara, and Doha who collectiively decided that "start civil war via the funding of terrorists" was the proper "strategy" for bringing about regime change in Damascus. Second, it's not clear that the "opposition" is putting up a "very strong fight," and even if it were, that's at least partly attributable to the Pentagon handing rebels things like anti-tank weapons. If Patterson thinks that's constructive, well, maybe she needs to find a new occupation.

Meanwhile, Western media reports indicate that there are as many as 4,000 Russian troops in Syria (so, i) just "slightly" more than the 50 Obama is sending, ii) far less than the number of militants the US and its regional allies have trained, and iii) far less than the Iranian contingent, which, between Shiite militas from Iraq, Hezbollah, and the Quds, probably number more than 10 or 15,000). Here's Reuters:

    Moscow's military force in Syria has grown to about 4,000 personnel, but this and more than a month of Russian air strikes have not led to pro-government forces making significant territorial gains, U.S. security officials and independent experts said.

    Moscow, which has maintained a military presence in Syria for decades as an ally of the ruling Assad family, had an estimated 2,000 personnel in the country when it began air strikes on Sept. 30. The Russian force has since roughly doubled and the number of bases it is using has grown, U.S. security officials said.

    The Russians have suffered combat casualties, including deaths, said three U.S. security officials familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, adding that they did not know the exact numbers.

    Russia's foreign ministry declined to comment on the size of the Russian contingent in Syria or any casualties it has suffered. It referred questions to the Russian Defense Ministry, which did not respond to written questions submitted by Reuters.

    The Kremlin has said there are no Russian troops in combat roles in Syria, though it has said there are trainers and advisers working alongside the Syrian military and also forces guarding Russia's bases in western Syria.

    A U.S. defense official said Russian aircraft are now operating out of four bases, but multiple rocket launcher crews and long-range artillery batteries are deployed outside the facilities.

    "They have a lot of people outside the wire," he said.

    The main Russian base is at the Bassel al-Assad International Airport near the port city of Latakia. All of Moscow's fixed wing aircraft are flying from there in support of ground offensives by the Syrian army and foreign Shiite militias, the defense official said.

    Three other bases - Hama, Sharyat and Tiyas - are being used for helicopter gunships, he said. The Russians began operating from Tiyas only this week, the official said.

    Russia's air fleet in Syria comprises 34 fixed-wing aircraft and 16 helicopters, the U.S. officials said.

In a testament to what we said above, Reuters goes on to note that the rebels' ability to fight off pro-regime forces stems largely from the delivery of U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles. Saudi Arabia is supplying them to forces battling Iran near Aleppo:

    Despite the Russian air strikes, the offensives have failed to make significant advances, the U.S. officials and independent experts said. A key factor appears to be significant losses by pro-government forces of tanks and other armored vehicles to U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles that Saudi Arabia has been supplying to the anti-Assad rebels.

Once again, this is just about the silliest damn thing imaginable. Here's Riyadh giving US-made anti-tank missiles to anti-Assad forces who are using them to target the very same Iran-backed militias who are driving Abrams tanks in Iraq and helping the US-trained Iraqi regulars battle ISIS. Clearly, Washington has gotten itself so intertwined in the Sunni-Shiite battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia that the Pentagon no longer knows what to do, leading to a schizophrenic strategy that varies by country.

In any event, the takeaway here is that reports now suggest US troops are operating near Latakia and that means they'll be in contact with Iranian ground troops, Russian fighter jets, and quite possibly with some of the 4,000 Russian troops stationed in the country. Perhaps now we know why The Pentagon sent the F-15C Eagles. Maybe US spec ops will indeed be engaging the Russians and Iranians on the ground and will need the air force to shoot down Moscow's warplanes in the event they try to hit US positions.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #97 on: November 05, 2015, 04:53:35 PM »
France supports the peace process by boosting its military operations.   :icon_scratch:

https://www.rt.com/news/320940-france-aircraft-carrier-is/
France to deploy its only aircraft carrier against Islamic State
5 Nov, 2015

France said it would deploy its only aircraft carrier – the Charles de Gaulle – to boost its military operations against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL).

“The deployment of the battle group alongside the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier has been decided to participate in operations against Daesch [ISIS] and its affiliate groups” the French president’s office said in a statement issued on Thursday after a defense cabinet meeting, Reuters reports.

“The aircraft carrier will enable us to be more efficient in coordination with our allies” Hollande said at the opening of a new defense ministry headquarters in Paris, adding that it will “bolster Paris’ firepower in the region amid international efforts to launch Syrian peace talks.”

President Hollande also said France wants to support the Vienna process and to make progress towards a political transition in Syria, the statement says. He added that fighting Islamic State and putting an end to the bombing of civilians must be core elements in any future accord, noting that president Assad cannot be part of the Syria’s future.

France launched its anti-IS airstrikes in Syria in September after a year of similar operation in Iraq. It used six Rafale jets deployed in the United Arab Emirates and six Mirages stationed in Jordan, according to AFP.

France conducted almost 1,300 aerial missions in Iraq which carried out 271 airstrikes destroying 459 targets. France has only carried out two airstrikes in Syria.

France’s only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is the biggest European ship of its type. Moreover, it is the only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier outside the US. The Charles de Gaulle can deploy up to 40 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Syria - Russia - US
« Reply #98 on: November 05, 2015, 06:35:17 PM »
This explains why they have Su-30s.  They don't say what air defence missile system they are using, but it's probably better to keep the opposition guessing on that.

https://www.rt.com/news/320909-russian-air-defense-syria/
Russian air defense deployed to Syria along with warplanes – commander
5 Nov, 2015

https://cdn.rt.com/files/2015.11/original/563b611cc46188032a8b457b.jpg
Su-24 bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces at the Khmeimim airbase in Syria. © Dmitriy Vinogradov / RIA Novosti

Russia’s Air Force has secured Syrian airspace with air defense missile systems that were delivered and deployed into the war-torn country along with other military hardware, its chief has revealed in an interview.

“We figured out all possible threats in advance, that’s why we brought not only fighter jets, strike-fighters and helicopters, but also air defense missile weapon systems,” Viktor Bondarev, the chief of Russia’s Air Force, told Komsomolskaya Pravda daily, adding that all kinds of force majeure circumstances should be expected.

“Let’s say a warplane is hijacked in a country neighboring Syria, to be used to make an airstrike on (Russia’s Khmeimim airbase near Latakia). Even that is something we must be ready for,”
Bondarev said, adding that so far no attacks on the base have been registered and no Russian servicemen have been injured.

The Commander explained why Moscow had opted to deploy its Air Force to Syria.

“ISIS are a very mobile gathering of rabble,” Bondarev said. “They use cars, motorbikes, bicycles and donkeys to move around and change their positions after every strike. You can’t effectively chase them with tanks, trucks and armored vehicles. Aviation is a different story.”

Bondarev said that the 50-plus aircraft Russia currently has in Syria are enough for the task and there are no plans to augment the task force at the moment.

All the Russian military jets flew to Syria by themselves, while helicopters were delivered by jumbo jets, Bondarev said. The Commander said US intelligence remained unaware of the transportation operation, but refused to go into details.

The pilots taking part in the Syrian campaign were chosen among those having practical warfare experience, he said. Every combat sortie is based on thorough intelligence information, so that pilots have comprehensive charts with all important facilities on the ground, such as schools, hospitals, mosques and other holy places specifically marked to absolutely exclude airstrikes on civilian facilities.

Commander Bondarev confirmed he has the technical means to monitor the situation in Syria through real-time satellites from the Russian Air Force headquarters.

Bondarev specifically noted that every airstrike is video-recorded by objective control means, so that accusations becoming increasingly commonplace in western media about Russian jets bombing civilian targets could be refuted easily. The Russian Defense Ministry has released videos of the airstrikes in Syria on a daily basis, something the US Air Force, also operating in Syria, never does.

The intensity of the airstrikes against Islamic State groups is forcing the terrorists to change tactics, abandoning their fortified installations and checkpoints that will be inevitably eliminated and moving closer to civilian buildings, he said.

But every move by the terrorists is acting against them, Commander Bondarev said.

Retreating terrorists are clearing the way for the troops of Syrian President Bashar Assad, which have been successfully advancing over the last weeks. For the regular Syrian army it is easier to eliminate terrorists who have left their reinforced bunkers where artillery and tanks cannot get them.

The terrorists avoid hiding in small villages where artillery fire clears them out easily. They prefer to converge in larger towns, which are easier for the Syrian army to surround and finish the job.
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Offline RE

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Russia halts Egypt flights amid widening probes into Sinai crash
« Reply #99 on: November 06, 2015, 09:22:13 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/confusion-reigns-at-egyptian-airport-amid-british-evacuation/2015/11/06/6cb177c0-840c-11e5-8bd2-680fff868306_story.html

Russia halts Egypt flights amid widening probes into Sinai crash

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