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Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2015, 05:05:16 PM »
I dont know whether to short it or go long.

Short dong or long dong.

Bi Fuk Dip Dong

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Online Eddie

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2015, 05:32:23 PM »
That's rather enigmatic.

Are you saying that we should buy the dip in the Dong?

There has to be a joke here in here somewhere about Casey and the Bhat.
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Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2015, 05:44:51 PM »
That's rather enigmatic.

Are you saying that we should buy the dip in the Dong?

There has to be a joke  in here somewhere about Casey and the Bhat.

Swing Long Dik On Ding Dong In Hong Kong No Go Wrong.

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« Last Edit: September 15, 2015, 05:50:04 PM by Eddie »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2015, 06:00:52 PM »
That's rather enigmatic.

Are you saying that we should buy the dip in the Dong?

There has to be a joke  in here somewhere about Casey and the Bhat.

Swing Long Dik On Ding Dong In Hong Kong No Go Wrong.

RE

if dim sim investor Sum Dum Fuk did WELL on the HANG seng is he WELL HUNG
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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2015, 06:07:22 PM »
I dont know whether to short it or go long.

Short dong or long dong.

In that case you do a straddle, it's simple and solves the problem. Don't forgot to watch the Thai Baht for clues on when to take the part of the position off on the Dong, with either a strip or a strap. A short on the Yen might be advisable to hedge the entire position since they are sub currencies of the group, and please don't forget the Renminbi is now undergoing great stress and is no long pegged solidly to the dollar which itself is subject to a particularly violent move this week after Yellen announces her world wide anticipated  :emthup: :emthdown: on interest rates on the world's reserve currency on which all other currencies are priced so a position there would be warranted, probably a good idea to do something with the 10 yr US treasury contract at the same time you put on the dollar position because Yellen's proclamation to the world about her future outlook on rates will have a major impact on this future which is what many use as a proxy for the dollar so don't leave yourself exposed, and don't forget to put in stop orders, both buys and sells at those particular chart points that all the pud heads are watching since you don't want to loose all your positions and hedges due to margin calls. Hope I covered most of it.  :icon_scratch:

OOps, Whatever the fuck you do don't buy any fucking Gold. That's an item for old fashioned pecker heads that live in the past and don't understand what cool modern hot shot traders we Fiat trading wizards are. Poor bastards are senile.

Would you believe they think we are the shitheads as they sit and watch us play with their shiny nuggets tucked away. Poor bastards, it must be terrible to be a Gold Bug.


                                                           
Gold Bug
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« Last Edit: September 15, 2015, 06:13:07 PM by Golden Oxen »

Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2015, 06:55:12 PM »
OOps, Whatever the fuck you do don't buy any fucking Gold. That's an item for old fashioned pecker heads that live in the past and don't understand what cool modern hot shot traders we Fiat trading wizards are. Poor bastards are senile.

Would you believe they think we are the shitheads as they sit and watch us play with their shiny nuggets tucked away. Poor bastards, it must be terrible to be a Gold Bug.

As weeks go, this one might not be too bad for Gold.

The only problem is it will get Hammered Confiscated at a later date.



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« Last Edit: September 15, 2015, 07:03:16 PM by RE »
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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2015, 07:16:24 PM »
OOps, Whatever the fuck you do don't buy any fucking Gold. That's an item for old fashioned pecker heads that live in the past and don't understand what cool modern hot shot traders we Fiat trading wizards are. Poor bastards are senile.

Would you believe they think we are the shitheads as they sit and watch us play with their shiny nuggets tucked away. Poor bastards, it must be terrible to be a Gold Bug.

As weeks go, this one might not be too bad for Gold.

The only problem is it will get Hammered Confiscated at a later date.



RE

Perhaps. but that is mere conjecture on your part. I don't agree with your opinion but will certainly admit it is possible.

Also RE, I can see where you thought I was talking about the next few weeks in my comment, sloppy quick blog writing on my part, sorry, have been very active lately, I was referring to the longer term and trying to point out the insanity of fiat that is the view of myself and fellow gold bugs. The menagerie and instant flight of trillions around the world seeking to scalp a profit the moment that Little lady opens her mouth is both frightening as it is ludicrous to us who see fiat as evil bankster scrip.

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2015, 08:15:35 PM »
I dont know whether to short it or go long.

Short dong or long dong.

In that case you do a straddle, it's simple and solves the problem.

Straddle the dong!?

CALL JRM!
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Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #23 on: September 15, 2015, 10:05:14 PM »

Perhaps. but that is mere conjecture on your part.
inflated.
All prognostication is conjecture.  Your opinion the dollar will hyperinflate is conjecture.  My conjectue is based on the historical fact that FDR Confiscated Gold during a Deflationary Depression in 1933.  Your conjecture is based  on no such historical fact.  The Dollar has never hyperinflated.  No reserve currency has hyperinflated since the Illuminati got the show rolling in the 17th century.    Sterling never hyperinflated either.  That's not how the Illuminati play the game.

Quote from: Thomas Jefferson
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered

Jefferson was a Slaver, but he wasn't stupid.

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2015, 12:58:13 PM »
Jefferson was a Slaver, but he wasn't stupid.
Nah, I'm pretty sure he was a Ptavv....  :icon_mrgreen:
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Offline endofmore

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #25 on: September 16, 2015, 03:07:45 PM »
Without energy supplies to underpin it, money is worth nothing, particularly in the paper and electronic forms we have become used to
So because a currency is ultimately a physical representation of the (surplus) energy system within the nation it purports to represent, maybe the parallel question should be asked 'whose energy supply goes down first?'

to quote Allan Stromfeldt Christiansen:
our economies don't run on money, they run on energy. Moreover, it doesn't even really matter what you use as your form of currency coins, pieces of paper, gold, zero and one digibits, conch shells, whatever because if you don't have the energy to perform the work and/or create the products your society expects, the money is virtually useless and worthless.


In 1800 the UK sat on more coal-energy  than Saudi has oil now.The British pound held the position of top world currency only so long as the UK produced colossal amounts of surplus energy that could be turned into capital goods and military hardware that could be traded across the world.
As UK energy output slipped into decline, and 2 world wars added to the drain, the USA became prime energy producer, and did the same as the UK, producing goods and military hardware, while having the political luck to be in the position of pinning the price of oil to the dollar, while the dollar was at its maximum strength.
We are now all locked into that oil/dollar system, and have no choice but to go along with it , even though the USA ceased to be the swing producer of oil in the 1970s. The Middle eastern oil producers are similarly locked into the oil dollar, and have effectively become the oil crutch of the western industrialised world. They know it of course, but can do nothing about it, because without western industries sucking in their oil, their lifestyle (and currency) crashes too. This is why ISIL is trying to wreck the middle east oil based theocracies, to destabilise western industrial/monetary system. We don't know if that is going to happen

The Euro? Accepted as a stable currency for the time being, but what is it? A currency created out of the old northern European energy-rich industrialised states, with a strong, creative work ethic. The factories of Germany in particular turn out the sort of hardware that everyone wants to buy  and so can carry the concept of the Euro, while the economically weaker southern states struggle (and fail) to keep up. They believed the fantasy that they could become as economically powerful as Germany by adopting the same currency.
They didn't have the energy to do that. When the German energy-legacy is finally spent, the Euro will fail too.

China and the Renminbi? The Chinese are latecomers to the energy burning party, have tried to set themselves a growth path that would have consumed all the oil available on world markets by the year 2030 or thereabouts. Complete nonsense of course, but nevertheless the Chinese consume fuel and turn it into dead-end real estate, or products that we never knew we wanted, in the certainty that their economy will expand forever.

Summing up I guess the Renminbi has to be the weakest, not because of the currency itself,  but because it is run as part of a command economy. There you have individuals beholden to those higher up for their livelihoods and in many case their lives. (Chinese share dealers already getting arrested) Not good for making rational decisions, if getting fired might involve a firing squad.
.

Online Eddie

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #26 on: September 16, 2015, 06:02:40 PM »
Thanks for weighing in, endofmore. I'm glad to see the interest in this topic, and the amount of good discussion it's generated here on the forum. Good insights.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #27 on: September 16, 2015, 06:56:25 PM »
Without energy supplies to underpin it, money is worth nothing, particularly in the paper and electronic forms we have become used to
So because a currency is ultimately a physical representation of the (surplus) energy system within the nation it purports to represent, maybe the parallel question should be asked 'whose energy supply goes down first?'

to quote Allan Stromfeldt Christiansen:
our economies don't run on money, they run on energy. Moreover, it doesn't even really matter what you use as your form of currency coins, pieces of paper, gold, zero and one digibits, conch shells, whatever because if you don't have the energy to perform the work and/or create the products your society expects, the money is virtually useless and worthless.


In 1800 the UK sat on more coal-energy  than Saudi has oil now.The British pound held the position of top world currency only so long as the UK produced colossal amounts of surplus energy that could be turned into capital goods and military hardware that could be traded across the world.
As UK energy output slipped into decline, and 2 world wars added to the drain, the USA became prime energy producer, and did the same as the UK, producing goods and military hardware, while having the political luck to be in the position of pinning the price of oil to the dollar, while the dollar was at its maximum strength.
We are now all locked into that oil/dollar system, and have no choice but to go along with it , even though the USA ceased to be the swing producer of oil in the 1970s. The Middle eastern oil producers are similarly locked into the oil dollar, and have effectively become the oil crutch of the western industrialised world. They know it of course, but can do nothing about it, because without western industries sucking in their oil, their lifestyle (and currency) crashes too. This is why ISIL is trying to wreck the middle east oil based theocracies, to destabilise western industrial/monetary system. We don't know if that is going to happen

The Euro? Accepted as a stable currency for the time being, but what is it? A currency created out of the old northern European energy-rich industrialised states, with a strong, creative work ethic. The factories of Germany in particular turn out the sort of hardware that everyone wants to buy  and so can carry the concept of the Euro, while the economically weaker southern states struggle (and fail) to keep up. They believed the fantasy that they could become as economically powerful as Germany by adopting the same currency.
They didn't have the energy to do that. When the German energy-legacy is finally spent, the Euro will fail too.

China and the Renminbi? The Chinese are latecomers to the energy burning party, have tried to set themselves a growth path that would have consumed all the oil available on world markets by the year 2030 or thereabouts. Complete nonsense of course, but nevertheless the Chinese consume fuel and turn it into dead-end real estate, or products that we never knew we wanted, in the certainty that their economy will expand forever.

Summing up I guess the Renminbi has to be the weakest, not because of the currency itself,  but because it is run as part of a command economy. There you have individuals beholden to those higher up for their livelihoods and in many case their lives. (Chinese share dealers already getting arrested) Not good for making rational decisions, if getting fired might involve a firing squad.
.

I covered most of this stuff a while back in The Money Valve series,  and there's quite a bit more if you search Thermodynamics on the Diner blog.

Far as the Chinese go, as I like to say they came to the party a Day Late and a Yuan Short, and the Keg is just about out of Beer.  However, I think the Japanese Yen collapses before Renminby does.  Far as firing squads go, I don't think all the ex-KGB turned oligarchs have too much trouble with bumping off people, and since this whole racket is International, I suspect you'll see quite a few more Banksters being helped out windows as time goes by here.

It's really hard to imagine what will be tried once this currency regime collapses.  Without the energy to back it up, no money holds any value.  I suppose in local areas whoever can control the food supply will be able to issue some sort of local scrip on it.  However, controlling said local food supply in the absence of gas to fill Hummers with will be a daunting task.

It will be interesting, no doubt.

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Offline endofmore

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2015, 03:54:23 AM »
 once one major currency collapses the rest are like to follow fairly quickly because the whole edifice is built on confidence rather than anything tangible.

As you say in your moneyvalve and thermodynamic posts RE, (which I hadn't read but have  just been digesting)  currency value  is ultimately supported by surplus energy, so if there is a general collapse then we really are back in a medieval society, where there was no surplus energy to support anything other than a primitive lifestyle. -
Kuntsler has said several times over the years that Japan is likely to be the first nation to return the medievalism, there's a very strong possibility that he is right. Being an island and inclined towards isolationism and exclusivity and with a valueless currency and little indigenous energy, that must happen to Japan, though with 127+ million people, things are going to get very unpleasant there until things bottom out.

In medieval societies, the foreign exchange rate of currency (which is our problem now) was irrelevant. Currency was a unit of exchange for goods and services essential for daily living where you happened to live --food, clothing, and stuff like that. Basic food was produced no more than a day's cart ride from where you lived. Luxuries were imported and traded, but only for the very rich, who effectively lived on the energy-producing labour of the poor majority, and were able to buy stuff like that. This is the first and only period in our history where international trade in luxury goods has been able to flourish and in so doing has created the fragility of the exchange system which must inevitably crash the system.
In other words, we all got rich then found the world couldn't afford to keep us in the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed.

Still it was good while it lasted.

Online RE

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Re: Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis
« Reply #29 on: September 17, 2015, 04:19:35 AM »
Kuntsler has said several times over the years that Japan is likely to be the first nation to return the medievalism, there's a very strong possibility that he is right. Being an island and inclined towards isolationism and exclusivity and with a valueless currency and little indigenous energy, that must happen to Japan, though with 127+ million people, things are going to get very unpleasant there until things bottom out.

Morris Berman makes a similar case about Japan, with a more positive spin on it than Kunstler.

The real bear is the Population Reduction period.  It's hard to imagine how anyone will take any form of money once food supplies grow scarce.  You have to have surplus for money to work, besides of course the necessity of having Trust in the system.

In it's simple form going back to your early Ag Civs like Mesopotamia and Egypt, first you needed to cotrol land and get a surplus of grain off of it, which you then could store in a warehouse.  Only after that could you then issue credit upon which to access that grain to your loyal subjects and your military.  Without the grain in the warehouse, you have nothing to issue credit on.  The money is just a Toke of the credit.  PMs got the nod in the early days for this because they were hard to access and counterfeit.  The power to issue the credit and having control of the resource is what is necessary for a monetary system to work.  The token choice is irrelevant other than that it needs to be tough to counterfeit.

Controlling large swaths of land and then further being able to consolidate any surplus from that land will be quite difficult during a die off period, especially since the fuel necessary to run vehicles will be in exceedingly short supply.  You don't have the horses available to even pull Chariots right now, that will take decades to breed up again, and only after enough Homo Saps have died off there is surplus food for Horses.

All in all, it is likely to be very chaotic.

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