AuthorTopic: Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse - Results: Currency Collapse  (Read 1088 times)

Offline RE

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Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse - Results: Currency Collapse
« on: September 22, 2015, 02:34:01 AM »


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Published on the Doomstead Diner on September 22, 2015



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Discuss the Results at the Survey Table inside the Diner



TAKE THE FATE OF COUNTRIES SURVEY HERE



One of the longest running arguments on the Diner is how various different countries will fare as collapse progresses forward.



http://www.philipcaruso-story.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Where-To-Live.jpgMost often, this pits the FSoA against China, and the Diner has some China Bulls and some China Bears.  I am a notorious China Bear gong back to my days on the Peak Oil Forum, where at the time because China was such a hot investment opportunity with double-digit growth rates it was common wisdom the Chinese would out-compete the FSoA Empire to lead the world in the second half of the 21st Century.  It was there I first added my Tag Line to analysis posts on China, "The Chinese are TOAST". ๐Ÿ˜€



Now in reality here, as time goes by EVERY industrialized nation is toast, in the sense every one is dependent on the systems that are driven by copious quantities of fossil fuel energy.  Once that energy can no longer be accessed or afforded, life as we know it now wll come to a halt.



However, this is unlikely to happen all at once, and it is unlikely to play itself out exactly the same way in different countries, different regions and even from town to town.



In this survey we look at the large nation states individually and regionally for the smaller ones, to find out the opinions of the Kollapsniks TM on which ones are the best positioned as collapse gathers speed, and which ones will fare the worst.



Besides China and the FSoA, the other one of the "Big Three" countries often discussed in comparing on this topic is Russia.  Russia is often cited as more resilient by virtue of the fact they already went through one collapse when the USSR collapsed, plus the fact they have a decent amount of fossil fuel energy still left in the ground.  However, they have numerous problems as well, wars ongoing to their south, the Ukrainian situation and enormous financial and currency turbulence.



Take the survey, and let us know who you think will do best and which ones worst as collapse gets fully underway.



TAKE THE FATE OF COUNTRIES SURVEY HERE



Results: Currency Collapse & Debt Implosion Survey



http://joeforamerica.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/survey-says.jpgOK, now onto the results from last week's Collapse Survey TM, Currency Collapse & Debt Implosion.



First question to look at is which of the current major currencies is likely to collapse first, and which has the potential to hold up the longest.



This is obviously important if you want to try to "preserve wealth", you certainly don't want to be holding the currency that collapses first! Duh. Roll Eyes



On the other hand, you have the problem of the utility of a currency in your neighborhood.



For instance, say the Norwegian Krone holds its value while the FSoA Dollar crashes.  Even if you have some Krone stashed in a Norwegian or Swiss Bank account, or even actually have some of their Notes in your basement safe along with your stash of Gold Coins, is Walmart going to take your Krone for a purchase of a bag of rice in Peoria, IL?  Not very likely.  You might stand a better chance in Europe, particularly Scandinavian countries if you have Krone, but here in the FSoA they are unlikely to do you a whole lot of good.  Only if you want to do currency trading during the spin down is this worthwhile to consider, and first off you need to be pretty flush to do that kind of trading, and second it's a fool's game these days with manipulated markets.  Even back in the day when I messed with currency trading it was nuts.  You have to leverage to beat the band to make any money this way.  You can get SWAMPED in a big move overnight.  Then the margin calls hit, and your next trip is out the window of the 49th floor.



Leaving aside the question of whether holding foreign currencies might benefit you personally, on the nation state level it's important to consider because he whose Currency crashes first, Collapses first.  So who is it gonna be?



I found the results of this particular question to be absolutely astounding.  Here's the results:










































































































































































































 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Standard Deviation

Responses

Weighted Average

Chinese Renminby/Yuan

10

(9.8%)


23

(22.55%)


8

(7.84%)


17

(16.67%)


10

(9.8%)


8

(7.84%)


8

(7.84%)


1

(0.98%)


5.92

102

4.81 / 12

European Euro

9

(8.82%)


13

(12.75%)


15

(14.71%)


19

(18.63%)


10

(9.8%)


11

(10.78%)


5

(4.9%)


5

(4.9%)


5.24

102

4.88 / 12

Japanese Yen

15

(14.71%)


8

(7.84%)


13

(12.75%)


12

(11.76%)


11

(10.78%)


10

(9.8%)


8

(7.84%)


15

(14.71%)


4.92

102

4.98 / 12

Russian Ruble

7

(6.86%)


16

(15.69%)


21

(20.59%)


13

(12.75%)


8

(7.84%)


13

(12.75%)


2

(1.96%)


2

(1.96%)


5.91

102

4.99 / 12

Brasil Real

29

(28.43%)


14

(13.73%)


6

(5.88%)


3

(2.94%)


7

(6.86%)


5

(4.9%)


3

(2.94%)


4

(3.92%)


7.53

102

5.29 / 12

British Sterling/Pound

0

(0%)


3

(2.94%)


7

(6.86%)


10

(9.8%)


21

(20.59%)


6

(5.88%)


11

(10.78%)


16

(15.69%)


5.74

102

6.78 / 12

US Dollar

27

(26.47%)


7

(6.86%)


5

(4.9%)


1

(0.98%)


1

(0.98%)


3

(2.94%)


1

(0.98%)


2

(1.96%)


10.02

102

7.1 / 12

India Rupee

3

(2.94%)


13

(12.75%)


10

(9.8%)


4

(3.92%)


6

(5.88%)


8

(7.84%)


7

(6.86%)


6

(5.88%)


4.59

102

7.29 / 12

Canadian Loonie

0

(0%)


3

(2.94%)


4

(3.92%)


9

(8.82%)


2

(1.96%)


9

(8.82%)


16

(15.69%)


14

(13.73%)


6.69

102

7.66 / 12

Australian Dollar

1

(0.98%)


0

(0%)


5

(4.9%)


7

(6.86%)


8

(7.84%)


7

(6.86%)


11

(10.78%)


11

(10.78%)


7.49

102

7.84 / 12

Norwegian Krone

0

(0%)


2

(1.96%)


6

(5.88%)


2

(1.96%)


8

(7.84%)


5

(4.9%)


22

(21.57%)


17

(16.67%)


6.17

102

7.93 / 12

Swiss Franc

1

(0.98%)


0

(0%)


2

(1.96%)


5

(4.9%)


10

(9.8%)


17

(16.67%)


8

(7.84%)


9

(8.82%)


6.63

102

8.43 / 12


IMHO, this ordering is INSANE.  Apparently Kollapsniks TM think that the Chinese Renminby will collapse BEFORE the Euro and Yen!  WTF?  Not only that, the Indian Rupee will outlast the FSoA Dollar! hahahahahahahaha.



Which currency outlasts them ALL (according to Kollapsniks)?  The Swissie!  A currency issued by a tiny nation of 8M people with a GDP of $685B (2013 data) is going to outlast the Dollar and Renminby?  WTF?  There are more people living in NY Shity than all of Switzerland!



When the Euro goes down, the Swissie goes with it.  The SNB has HUGE exposure to Euro denominated debt, they have been buying it up to keep the exchange rate from going through the roof.  It's simply nuts to think this currency can outlast those of the Big 3.



My order for currency collapse?













































Brasil Real

India Rupee

Russian Ruble

Japanese Yen

European Euro

British Sterling/Pound

Norwegian Krone

Swiss Franc

Australian Dollar

Canadian Loonie

Chinese Renminby/Yuan

US Dollar


Brasil is already on the serious ropes, and so is India.  Weak economies and too much poverty.  Russia should be strong, but they are a target for the Western Illuminati Banksters, so they will be under constant currency attack.  Yen & Euro go next, and then subsidiary currencies like Sterling, the Swissie and Krone go after them.  The Oz Dollar and Hoser Loonie keep value because of how closely they are connected to the FSoA Dollar.



One caveat to this is that once the cascade begins, it may be impossible to tell which one collapsed first.  Once a major like say the Japanese Yen collapses, this will cause so much havoc in the Interbank lending market that everything else will lock up in pico-seconds.



IMHO, the Final Battle for All the Currency Marbles is between the Chinese Renminby and the FSoA Dollar.  I think the Dollar wins this battle, because so much debt is denominated in dollars. Too many .01%ers have their wealth wrapped up in Dollars or Dollar denominated assets to let that one collapse.  We'll see on that one.



OK, now onto Q2, which is whether Gold & Silver will replace Fiat Currencies once they collapse?



Survey-Gold






















 

Yes

No

Standard Deviation

Responses

All Data

34

(33.01%)


69

(66.99%)


17.5

103


Overwhelmingly by a 2/3rds majority, most Kollapsniks TM do not think Gold and Silver will replace Fiat once it crashes.



I tend to agree with that one, the PMs are too centralized and too few people have access to them for them to be workable as a currency medium.  There also is no clear idea on how these could be distributed out, or how letters of credit would be issued or anything else.  They might function as a Barter item, but as a currency that many use, it seems unlikely.



If Gold & Silver are NOT likely, what is likely once this Currency Regime fails? icon_scratch That was the subject for Q3.  Here's the results for that one:



















































































 

1

2

3

4

5

Standard Deviation

Responses

Weighted Average

TPTB will institute a New World Currency, the SDR or something similar

37

(39.36%)


11

(11.7%)


19

(20.21%)


13

(13.83%)


14

(14.89%)


9.47

94

2.53 / 5

LETS (Local Exchange Trading System) Money will be issued in many locales

23

(24.47%)


21

(22.34%)


19

(20.21%)


26

(27.66%)


5

(5.32%)


7.28

94

2.67 / 5

Paper Money will be issued based on Gold and Silver held in a Central Bank

11

(11.7%)


19

(20.21%)


29

(30.85%)


22

(23.4%)


13

(13.83%)


6.46

94

3.07 / 5

Gold & Silver Coins will be used as Currency

7

(7.45%)


32

(34.04%)


18

(19.15%)


20

(21.28%)


17

(18.09%)


7.98

94

3.09 / 5

No money will work and Trade will be all Barter

16

(17.02%)


11

(11.7%)


9

(9.57%)


13

(13.83%)


45

(47.87%)


13.3

94

3.64 / 5


A large plurality (almost 40%) of Kollapsniks TM think that TPTB will be able to institute a new centralized currency regime from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland, Central Bank of Central Banks, Home Base for the Illuminati). This is a particularly favored idea by Conspiracy Theorists, but it is not one I hold as most likely.  The likely candidate are SDRs, aka Special Drawing Rights, a concoction the BIS already has in place for internal use based on some potpourri of currencies and commodities and who knows what else they threw in that basket..



I am not in that camp.  Perhaps they will try this, but to get every country in the world to cede their monetary sovereignty over to the BIS would be near impossible IMHO.  It's like the Euro on Steroids.  It really does nothing other than re-denominate debt, and it sure doesn't put any new resource back in the ground.   To me, this is a non-starter.  Not to say it won't be attempted though.  It's a last gasp effort for the Illuminati to maintain hegemony over the economic system.



LETS systems of Local Currencies come in at #2, and this I feel is most likely to occur.  Regional breakup of the One to the Many TM will at least at the beginning require each region to develop their own local currency.  Potlatch at this stage of the spin down seems unlikely.



Far as Centrally held Gold being a basis for a currency, to me this is also a non-starter.  If you have a Central Bank holding gold in the Basement Safe, after a crisis of banking confidence like this, who would not go to the bank and DEMAND their "Gold Backed Note" to actually be redeemable in said Gold?  Once the gold is redeemed, what does the Bank have as an Asset?  At this point, the Gold you redeem for the note the Bank printed on it is just a barter item.



Will all trade eventually go all Barter?  It's already on its way there in some places, but that will take some time in the core countries I imagine.   Cannot be sure on this though, a rapid collapse could make barter the only functioning economic system in your neighborhood for a while.  Good idea to have barterable goods in your preps. Alcohol and Cigarettes are traditional barter items, I suggest also Tampons, Pampers, Condoms, Ammo, & Shoes as good choices of barter goods that last a long time.  Shoes in particular, have you noticed how many of the pictures of refugees show them to be barefoot?  Once trade with China halts, shoes are going to be hard to come by.  Right now though, you can buy a nice pair of sneakers at Wally World for $15 on sale.



Finally in this survey, how long before the Dollar finally dies completely and you can't use it to buy food at the major food retailers?  This could be either because the Dollar has hyperinflated to worthlessness or the shelves are empty.  Here's the results for this one:






























 

2016

2018

2020

2025

2030

The Dollar will keep working for the forseeable future

Standard Deviation

Responses

All Data

10

(9.71%)


16

(15.53%)


16

(15.53%)


22

(21.36%)


14

(13.59%)


25

(24.27%)


4.98

103


You have a pretty nice Bell Curve here, except for the 25% or so of people who thnk the Dollar will keep working past 2030.  The 2025 date seems about right to me, although again a major banking crisis and lockup could change that in an instant.



All in all, this was one of our most interesting surveys to date.



 


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Offline Eddie

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Re: Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse - Results: Currency Collapse
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2015, 07:23:33 AM »
I am not in that camp.  Perhaps they will try this, but to get every country in the world to cede their monetary sovereignty over to the BIS would be near impossible IMHO.  It's like the Euro on Steroids.  It really does nothing other than re-denominate debt, and it sure doesn't put any new resource back in the ground.   To me, this is a non-starter.  Not to say it won't be attempted though.  It's a last gasp effort for the Illuminati to maintain hegemony over the economic system.

No, it's already a done deal. It's already agreed to by the bankster controlled countries, and as of one year from now. it will be a functional system for a bailout, the biggest one of all time, and probably the last one of all time. Is it a band-aid, bound to fail?...well, yes, but we're going to go through it to get to whatever lies on the other side. I'm fairly convinced of that.

Far as Centrally held Gold being a basis for a currency, to me this is also a non-starter.  If you have a Central Bank holding gold in the Basement Safe, after a crisis of banking confidence like this, who would not go to the bank and DEMAND their "Gold Backed Note" to actually be redeemable in said Gold?  Once the gold is redeemed, what does the Bank have as an Asset?  At this point, the Gold you redeem for the note the Bank printed on it is just a barter item.

Except that's not the way it will work. it won't be a replacement currency. Dollars, Francs, Pounds, etc., will still exist. It will be a bailout for the banks to keep them solvent. A multi-national SuperFed. No citizen has any claim on gold with this system. The gold, if it is used, will be a way to determine which countries get the most credit from the BIS.

The beauty of it is that no one you can reach with your pitchfork will be involved. No accountability on the part of politicians or in-country bankers. The cry will be the same as last time out. The POTUS will come on TV and say he had to do it to keep the whole world from going into financial gridlock. Sorry.

The part I'm not sure of is what happens to the dollar. What I expect is that the Fed will suddenly revalue gold to market, which will make the US of A have a much better credit report than it does today. Maybe the gold doesn't even exist anymore, but the only thing that matters is whether the BIS is willing to accept that it does, and they will.

If that were not the case, I'd look for some really serious monetary inflation here, but with that little accounting trick, I'm not so sure.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse - Results: Currency Collapse
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2015, 07:58:31 AM »
You have a pretty nice Bell Curve here, except for the 25% or so of people who think the Dollar will keep working past 2030.  The 2025 date seems about right to me, although again a major banking crisis and lockup could change that in an instant.

Too soon, unless we have climate-caused famine in the West. Climate problems are impossible to call with accuracy, as far as when they become THE problem.

Eventually though, climate will trump all these other little issues, like global thermonuclear war, and money. I don't think the timeline is long enough for lack of fossil fuel energy to be the direct cause of a reversion to local currency. We very well might have plenty of money but no food to buy for any amount of money, by 2060, or 2080...but not by 2030, as Guy says.

If it's 2030, though, and I'm wrong, I'll promptly admit it. I expect to live that long. If I don't, well......
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse - Results: Currency Collapse
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2015, 01:07:10 PM »
I am not in that camp.  Perhaps they will try this, but to get every country in the world to cede their monetary sovereignty over to the BIS would be near impossible IMHO.  It's like the Euro on Steroids.  It really does nothing other than re-denominate debt, and it sure doesn't put any new resource back in the ground.   To me, this is a non-starter.  Not to say it won't be attempted though.  It's a last gasp effort for the Illuminati to maintain hegemony over the economic system.

No, it's already a done deal. It's already agreed to by the bankster controlled countries, and as of one year from now. it will be a functional system for a bailout, the biggest one of all time, and probably the last one of all time. Is it a band-aid, bound to fail?...well, yes, but we're going to go through it to get to whatever lies on the other side. I'm fairly convinced of that.

This is an accounting gimmick at the BIS, they are not planning on issuing out SDR Notes for everybody to use, or even digibits on an SDR Debit Card AFAIK.

Far as Centrally held Gold being a basis for a currency, to me this is also a non-starter.  If you have a Central Bank holding gold in the Basement Safe, after a crisis of banking confidence like this, who would not go to the bank and DEMAND their "Gold Backed Note" to actually be redeemable in said Gold?  Once the gold is redeemed, what does the Bank have as an Asset?  At this point, the Gold you redeem for the note the Bank printed on it is just a barter item.

Except that's not the way it will work. it won't be a replacement currency. Dollars, Francs, Pounds, etc., will still exist. It will be a bailout for the banks to keep them solvent. A multi-national SuperFed. No citizen has any claim on gold with this system. The gold, if it is used, will be a way to determine which countries get the most credit from the BIS.

Now you are splitting hairs.  If the Dollars are still used at Walmart, then it's dollars you are working with, not SDRs.

The beauty of it is that no one you can reach with your pitchfork will be involved. No accountability on the part of politicians or in-country bankers. The cry will be the same as last time out. The POTUS will come on TV and say he had to do it to keep the whole world from going into financial gridlock. Sorry.

They don't have to be touchable with our Pitchforks.  These folks will cannibalize each other at the top.  Just wait until a few ex-KGB Oligarchs lose it all.  Banksters all over the world will be helped out windows.

The part I'm not sure of is what happens to the dollar. What I expect is that the Fed will suddenly revalue gold to market, which will make the US of A have a much better credit report than it does today. Maybe the gold doesn't even exist anymore, but the only thing that matters is whether the BIS is willing to accept that it does, and they will.

If that were not the case, I'd look for some really serious monetary inflation here, but with that little accounting trick, I'm not so sure.

Again, whether they revalue gold or not, it doesn't matter.  The same resource deficiency exists.  You just get a different set of numbers this way.
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Offline RE

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Barter Economy Takes Off in Greece
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2015, 07:36:13 PM »
If Greece is the Canary in the Coal Mine, it looks like a Barter Economy is pretty likely.

RE

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/business/international/trading-meat-for-tires-as-bartering-economy-grows-in-greece.html?_r=0

Some deal offers were not up to snuff. “One person wanted me to trade a Madonna CD for a chicken,” he said. “But I said no. The Madonna CD was definitely not worth a chicken.”

hahahahahahahaha

RE
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