AuthorTopic: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”  (Read 4758 times)

Offline agelbert

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2015, 08:13:07 PM »
Mercury said,
Quote
Well, if we see one of these methane 'blips' then it's "all over red rover", as they say. But like RE, I don't see it happening on a timeframe of 15 years.

Yep. I also think we've got a lot more than 15 years before the methane bomb goes off. But if we continue business as usual for the next ten years or so, I am convinced that the methane bomb WILL go off in less than a century REGARDLESS of what we do after 2025. :(

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Offline RE

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2015, 11:19:46 PM »
Yep. I also think we've got a lot more than 15 years before the methane bomb goes off. But if we continue business as usual for the next ten years or so, I am convinced that the methane bomb WILL go off in less than a century REGARDLESS of what we do after 2025. :(

Well, first off I think we will change our ways in the next decade, because the monetary system will fail.

However, for argument's purposes, assume the methane bomb does go off.  Why in principle can Homo Sap not survive at an AGT of 25C?

RE
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Offline Mercury

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2015, 12:25:08 AM »
Yep. I also think we've got a lot more than 15 years before the methane bomb goes off. But if we continue business as usual for the next ten years or so, I am convinced that the methane bomb WILL go off in less than a century REGARDLESS of what we do after 2025. :(

Well, first off I think we will change our ways in the next decade, because the monetary system will fail.

However, for argument's purposes, assume the methane bomb does go off.  Why in principle can Homo Sap not survive at an AGT of 25C?

RE
I don't think humans will ever learn their lesson. It's not part of our consciousness. Whoever is left in charge will try and "reinflate", because growth is a biological imperative, not just a human one. It doesn't mean it will work though. Regarding human survival at AGT of 25c, I think it's something to do with wet-bulb temperatures and the fact that people don't do very well above 37c for prolonged periods of time, and a lot of the planet would be above that at such high temperatures.  :icon_scratch:



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Offline agelbert

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2015, 12:26:24 AM »
Yep. I also think we've got a lot more than 15 years before the methane bomb goes off. But if we continue business as usual for the next ten years or so, I am convinced that the methane bomb WILL go off in less than a century REGARDLESS of what we do after 2025. :(

Well, first off I think we will change our ways in the next decade, because the monetary system will fail.

However, for argument's purposes, assume the methane bomb does go off.  Why in principle can Homo Sap not survive at an AGT of 25C?

RE

Good question. What I have been led to understand is that there is simply no free planetary biosphere out there, doing what it does right now to preserve our habitat. at an AGT of  20C, never mind 25C. So, if we can rig a technofix with big underground farms like that one in London that just started (see post on my channel) and locate them next to that seed vault up in Svalbard, a tiny remnant can survive in their Earthbound artificial environment.
This seed vault is now finished. It was built above the HIGHEST possible sea level rise that we know of in geologic history. So it cannot be flooded. It's not going to get that hot up there because that is WAY up north (78.2382° N, 15.4472° E).



So, in principle, it can be done with HIGH TECH only. And when that methane bomb goes off, the temperature will just keep going up until it maxes out somehow. Maybe the max is 22C, which seems to be the top in the geologic record. At any rate, it will take a LONG (at least a thousand years) time to get to a halfway livable planet for mammalian vertebrates again.

I've been looking some very cool (pardon the pun  ;D) climate modeling software called Climate Re-analyzer.

It shows all the different types of vegetation at different ΔT from present AGT in 1 degree C jumps both, both down and up. You are shown Earth from above the north pole.

The point is that at present, there is a HUGE area of tundra, both dry and moist, along with some moist forest tundra transition in the arctic.

We KNOW that has a lot of methane locked in it, in addition to the clathrate hydrates in the arctic ocean.

Well, at  ΔT +2C, the ice cap is gone. That's not news. But so is a large percentage of the tundra! At ΔT +4C, the tundra that remains is very, very tiny. The bottom line is that when the tundra is gone, the methane is being released BIG time. The arctic ocean has no ice, so it really starts to warm up throughout the water column all the way to the frozen bottom.    The frozen clathrate hydrates start coming up to make lots of fizzy water and REALLY goose the runaway greenhouse. And all that CH4 bubbling up from the ocean bottom gooses the acidity too!

Here's a picture of what methane bubbling from the ocean bottom looks like (this is not in the arctic but you get the idea).

I'll take some screen shots of the different scenarios and post them tomorrow so you see how the tundra is replaced by grass, a lot of grass. That's good because it eats CO2. But because there isn't much sun up towards the poles for long periods (and when there is sun, the angle is rather weak for photosynthesis), there is NO WAY that will make up for the massive deforestation and desertification towards the temperate and tropical zones. After several decades, I imagine trees will grow up there too, In Svalbard the rocks are full of fossils of tree leaves.

As you say, some certainly CAN survive. But as I say, EVERYTHING has to go just right. You need back up systems for your back up systems for your back up systems. You need FAR more redundancy than they have on a nuclear powered submarine or an aircraft carrier.
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Offline RE

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2015, 12:32:18 AM »
According to the chart I posted in my Debunking NTHE article, max AGT is ~25C.

Also posted in that article is that the AGT currently in Nigeria is between 25-29C, depending on the season, and plenty of people currently live there.

Also posted the fact that temps drop as you rise in elevation and in latitude.  So in principle I can see no reason there would not be Survival Zones with an AGT of 25C.

RE
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2015, 04:03:34 PM »
According to the chart I posted in my Debunking NTHE article, max AGT is ~25C.

Also posted in that article is that the AGT currently in Nigeria is between 25-29C, depending on the season, and plenty of people currently live there.

Also posted the fact that temps drop as you rise in elevation and in latitude.  So in principle I can see no reason there would not be Survival Zones with an AGT of 25C.

RE

RE,
PLEASE understand that AGT of 20C or more means FAR higher temperatures than 25-29C. If you do not want to go there, we have nothing to discuss. The ISSUE is the biome differences that result form the AGT differences. I'll post the biome differences from the last glacial maximum to the predicted plus 4C at the end of this century when I get to it (Present -6C to present +4C). I hope readers will be interested.  8)
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Offline RE

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2015, 04:21:24 PM »
According to the chart I posted in my Debunking NTHE article, max AGT is ~25C.

Also posted in that article is that the AGT currently in Nigeria is between 25-29C, depending on the season, and plenty of people currently live there.

Also posted the fact that temps drop as you rise in elevation and in latitude.  So in principle I can see no reason there would not be Survival Zones with an AGT of 25C.

RE

RE,
PLEASE understand that AGT of 20C or more means FAR higher temperatures than 25-29C. If you do not want to go there, we have nothing to discuss. The ISSUE is the biome differences that result form the AGT differences. I'll post the biome differences from the last glacial maximum to the predicted plus 4C at the end of this century when I get to it (Present -6C to present +4C). I hope readers will be interested.  8)

Far higher temps in some places yes, but in ALL places?

I look forward to reading your rationale on this.

RE
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Offline MKing

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2015, 04:33:26 PM »
I hope readers will be interested.  8)

We might. But you keep the character count to <1500? That is all I am allowed to use in abstracts to determine if the topic is worthy of a half hour presentation at a national convention, so it seems fair for you as well. I mean really, if you can't express a basic idea in <1500words, usually it requires some polishing.

For example, I just received final publication notice for my next paper. The paper is about 4 pages long, but those are just the words hung around a mathematical equation consisting of 17 characters. Arguably took my entire professional career to write that equation, but as any good technical writer will tell you, "I apologize for not being able to make it even shorter".

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”
« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2015, 05:07:34 PM »
According to the chart I posted in my Debunking NTHE article, max AGT is ~25C.

Also posted in that article is that the AGT currently in Nigeria is between 25-29C, depending on the season, and plenty of people currently live there.

Also posted the fact that temps drop as you rise in elevation and in latitude.  So in principle I can see no reason there would not be Survival Zones with an AGT of 25C.

RE

RE,
PLEASE understand that AGT of 20C or more means FAR higher temperatures than 25-29C. If you do not want to go there, we have nothing to discuss. The ISSUE is the biome differences that result form the AGT differences. I'll post the biome differences from the last glacial maximum to the predicted plus 4C at the end of this century when I get to it (Present -6C to present +4C). I hope readers will be interested.  8)

Far higher temps in some places yes, but in ALL places?

I look forward to reading your rationale on this.

RE

YOU were the one that mentioned a specific place of temps as high as 29C, not me. OF COURSE there will be temps well below that in SVALBARD, as I wrote above and you seem to have missed! WTF?!

Don't start cherry picking on me, boss. READ the post about Svalbard again. I SAID that trees could eventually grow there AGAIN like they did before we were around. I SAID that some humans can survive with HIGH TECH ONLY. You DO NOT want to talk about that. FINE! DON'T!

We ARE on the SAME PAGE as far as the possibility of a TINY remnant of humans being able to survive.

We ARE NOT on the same page as to natural biome habitat for humans being INSUFFICIENT to keep them alive without HIGH TECH. You think it can be done without high tech. You think the environment near the poles is going to be within human habitat requirements.

EVENTUALLY, that will be true. But for AT LEAST A THOUSAND YEARS, it WON'T BE. It's NOT just about the TEMPERATURE there.

WHEN are you going to be willing to PROCESS in your mind that your greenhouses at the poles need to be more like space ships than what they have now in the North Slope? It's HARD to keep spaceships from failing over a thousand year period. You have to manufacture your own LED lighting when the sun is NOT THERE for several months. You have to service the geothermal equipment and manufacture all the spare parts. You have to have ALL the raw materials THERE and stockpiled IN ADVANCE for OVER a century because the storms coming WILL NOT allow you to travel on the oceans or on land for any appreciable distance.

And, you know, it pisses me off to have to lay all this out to you BECAUSE I KNOW, that on some level, you are keenly aware of it.

If you want to limit your thoughts to "It will be tough, but we can handle it", then you do not wish to engage in a nuts and bolts discussion of the ENORMITY of the task you are assuming is a given, due to human get up and go and human ingenuity.

RE, you have STOPPED listening to me and you are starting to repeat yourself over and over. Go for it. Your forum, your rules!

I'm DONE arguing with you. You want to make this about whether N.T.H.E. is in 15 years or so to narrow the discussion and prove your point. It's NOT about 15 years! But It IS about LESS than a century. It's ALSO about the FACT that collapse isn't going to make it BETTER for at least ANOTHER century. You just DO NOT GET THAT!

You are NOT interested in common ground. You are NOT interested in entertaining doubts as to the possibility that you are being over-optimistic. Your peppy rejoinders are not arguments; they are an expression of your boundless optimism. Good for you. But I think you are being OVER-optimistic.

RE, I have seldom met a person less willing to admit fault than you. So I won't waste your time trying.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2015, 05:11:25 PM by agelbert »
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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