AuthorTopic: How collapse could look like in Sweden  (Read 3633 times)

Offline Fenixor

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How collapse could look like in Sweden
« on: October 26, 2015, 11:13:19 AM »
Of course it's more dramatic in movies... still, collapse, in the later stages, could look something like this

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/_fIpWBQRI1Q" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/_fIpWBQRI1Q</a>

Offline Eddie

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2015, 12:11:28 PM »
Maybe, but I think the likelihood is that it will be downright boring in its slow, inexorable onset. Poverty and more refugees until nobody anywhere wants them. More people dropping off the social safety net and turning homeless and feral.

Middle class people slowly becoming lower class financially, until they can no longer pay their mortgages and credit cards.

Maybe a substantial back-to-the-land movement, with sharecropping on small acreages that still exist and are owned by those who can still pay taxes and so forth.

A dramatic sudden collapse could certainly happen, of course. But even if it doesn't, the things I am describing will happen (and in fact are already happening). We'll get down the energy hill one way or another. But I think those who expect zombie hordes are underestimating the effects of garden variety attrition and the way a slightly increased mortality rate can really reduce population over a generation or two.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline MKing

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2015, 12:12:57 PM »
Of course it's more dramatic in movies... still, collapse, in the later stages, could look something like this

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/_fIpWBQRI1Q" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/_fIpWBQRI1Q</a>

Looks like a pretty standard opening for a reasonable zombie film. With some young love thrown in for the younger paying members of the audience. But collapse..well..maybe the way the movies think about it to attract paying customers. Collapse the way it can most likely happen is easy.

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline Fenixor

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2015, 01:02:01 PM »
Haha yes I agree, just got so fascinated by the video, I don't believe in a zombie apocalypse either but rather worse economy and increasing social tensions. However there are tipping points in social systems as well, not only markets, so things could turn ugly fast given the right conditions (slowly eroding away trust and then a shock to the system). But will probably happen faster and sooner in other countries first. Solidarity is still strong here. But that's just my guess.

Online RE

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2015, 01:38:22 PM »
You guys are infected with NBV.  Normalcy Bias Virus.

We will not Frog Boil in perpetuity.  There are some critical systems that once the tipping point is reached bring down the whole structure.

I refer you to the work of Theoretical Physicist David Korowicz on Financial Cross Contagion and Tipping Points.

I'll buy your Boiling Frog Hypothesis when you make a better argument than DK.  Go ahead.  I dare you.  :icon_mrgreen:

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Offline MKing

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2015, 02:49:03 PM »
Haha yes I agree, just got so fascinated by the video, I don't believe in a zombie apocalypse either but rather worse economy and increasing social tensions.

Sounds like what has been happening in the world since before you were born. Maybe even before I was born. I mean, were you around for the black monday in the 1980's? Stagflation during the 70's? The American recessions during the 60's? Social tensions, I mean Jim Crow laws, the civil rights tensions, urban rights, today seems downright calm compared to the bad old days.

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However there are tipping points in social systems as well, not only markets, so things could turn ugly fast given the right conditions (slowly eroding away trust and then a shock to the system). But will probably happen faster and sooner in other countries first. Solidarity is still strong here. But that's just my guess.

Selma Alabama in 1965. Pretty ugly. The Katrina hurricane and resulting nonsense in 2005? Africa in almost any year since 1950? I mean really, you could wait the rest of your life for things to get bad enough to not be just more run of the mill nonsense that we humans seem to regularly inflict on each other. Solidarity is pretty strong in America as well, consumers being a near 99%+ voting block, and of course we are the world's largest energy producer as well. Combine us with Canada and we don't have much to be concerned about, as soon as we stop playing policeman, and let Russia have as far west as it wants to take and whatnot. They might stop at rolling over just Finland but why? Might as well get the ports along the North Sea and the oil resources out there, a multi-lingual young lady like you can learn Russian as well, I'm sure the world will be happy with what the planet looks like when they can't dial 911-America.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline Fenixor

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2015, 02:55:01 PM »
"The automobile stopped directly in front of a nineteen-year-old Bosnian Serb student, GavriloPrincip. A member of the Serbian terrorist organization Black Hand, Princip couldn’t believe his luck. Striding forward, he reached the carriage. He drew a small pistol from his pocket. Pointed it. Pulled the trigger twice. Within thirty minutes, the Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, the carriage’s passengers, were dead. Within hours, the political fabric of Europe had begun to unravel...
When the First World War ended five years later, ten million lay dead. Europe fell into an uncomfortable quiet that lasted twenty years, and then the Second World War claimed another thirty million".

-  Mark Buchanan in his book Ubiquity

Online RE

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2015, 03:16:26 PM »
"The automobile stopped directly in front of a nineteen-year-old Bosnian Serb student, GavriloPrincip. A member of the Serbian terrorist organization Black Hand, Princip couldn’t believe his luck. Striding forward, he reached the carriage. He drew a small pistol from his pocket. Pointed it. Pulled the trigger twice. Within thirty minutes, the Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, the carriage’s passengers, were dead. Within hours, the political fabric of Europe had begun to unravel...
When the First World War ended five years later, ten million lay dead. Europe fell into an uncomfortable quiet that lasted twenty years, and then the Second World War claimed another thirty million".

-  Mark Buchanan in his book Ubiquity

You can never know in advance the precise day and time or what the Trigger Point will be.

All you can say for sure is eventually that trigger gets pulled, and the gun goes off.  Then in a short span of time, there are DEAD PEOPLE.  Lots of DEAD PEOPLE.


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Offline MKing

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2015, 04:16:15 PM »
"The automobile stopped directly in front of a nineteen-year-old Bosnian Serb student, GavriloPrincip. A member of the Serbian terrorist organization Black Hand, Princip couldn’t believe his luck. Striding forward, he reached the carriage. He drew a small pistol from his pocket. Pointed it. Pulled the trigger twice. Within thirty minutes, the Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, the carriage’s passengers, were dead. Within hours, the political fabric of Europe had begun to unravel...
When the First World War ended five years later, ten million lay dead. Europe fell into an uncomfortable quiet that lasted twenty years, and then the Second World War claimed another thirty million".

-  Mark Buchanan in his book Ubiquity

Fortunate indeed that the Americans came in and made sure that not only the right side won, but trained our military leaders so that when the Europeans screwed the pooch again, they would become the heroes of WWII and pull everyones bacon out of the fire.

You aren't suggesting that you are about to let your migrant problems explode into random assassinations of Swede royalty are you? Triggering a war among the Scandinavian peoples's, and you would go to war against like the Fins and Norwegians?
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline Eddie

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2015, 05:14:33 PM »
I do believe in tipping points. Unfortunately, they are only recognizable in the rearview mirror, which makes them fairly useless for predicting anything.

By many objective criteria, we should already be in SHTF territory...but we aren't. Not quite. I just see a world in trouble, but not one that will collapse in a year, or likely even in five years. We have so far to fall. I don't think I have a normalcy bias. I fully recognize a host of predicaments, that no doubt at some point will cause extreme disruptions of BAU. But it's so easy to err the other way than normalcy bias too. What would you call that? Collapse bias?
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Fenixor

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2015, 05:45:40 PM »
Well, we do know some things even if it is hard to predict tipping points we can draw out general patterns. For example, that there is an increased likelihood of food riots in countries classed as highly fragile (as measured by the WGI), when the annual FAO- Food Price Index goes above 200 (nominal) or 140 (deflated).

http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/4360

Offline MKing

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2015, 09:47:39 PM »
I don't think I have a normalcy bias. I fully recognize a host of predicaments, that no doubt at some point will cause extreme disruptions of BAU. But it's so easy to err the other way than normalcy bias too. What would you call that? Collapse bias?

Break with reality?
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline MKing

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2015, 09:52:10 PM »
Well, we do know some things even if it is hard to predict tipping points we can draw out general patterns. For example, that there is an increased likelihood of food riots in countries classed as highly fragile (as measured by the WGI), when the annual FAO- Food Price Index goes above 200 (nominal) or 140 (deflated).

http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/4360

Let them riot. It has happened before, it will happen again. It doesn't tend to happen for lack of food, it happens because human leadership is generally crap, and their idiot decisions spill over into taking their eye off the ball...like making sure there is enough food for the (usually African) equivalent of Joe Sixpack. "Highly fragile" in your lexicon most likely correlating with "human leadership=crap" in mine.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Online RE

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2015, 05:48:59 AM »
Let them riot. It has happened before, it will happen again. It doesn't tend to happen for lack of food, it happens because human leadership is generally crap, and their idiot decisions spill over into taking their eye off the ball...like making sure there is enough food for the (usually African) equivalent of Joe Sixpack. "Highly fragile" in your lexicon most likely correlating with "human leadership=crap" in mine.

Further proof you are an Idiot Savant.  That is amongst the most unfuckingbelievably stupid comments you have ever dropped on the Diner, and that is saying a LOT.  You trot out this "It's happened before, it will happen again" every time you are confronted with evidence of collapse. "I remember when the Oil Patch collapsed in the 80s, we came roaring back from that."

You are like my uber fundy Christian friend up here who quotes Matthew 24:6 in just about every conversation we have

Quote
And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

Or Jimbo Quinn who trots out Strauss & Howe's 4th Turning every other article to convince himself this is all just cyclical and 20 years from now we'll be back on the upswing.  There's another Idiot Savant on the net, you two have a lot in common.  You should join the commentariat on TBP, you would be highly popular over there.

There must be some kind of psychological typing for this.  What did you come out as in the Enneagram?  I would bet on 3w4.

Quote
Type 3 - The Achiever

Focused on the presentation of success, to attain validation

Threes need to be validated in order to feel worthy; they pursue success and want to be admired. They are frequently hard working, competetive and are highly focused in the pursuit of their goals, whether their goal is to be the most successful salesman in the company or the "sexiest" woman in their social circle.

Quote
Type 4 - The Individualist

Identity seekers, who feel unique and different

Fours build their identities around their perception of themselves as being somehow different or unique; they are thus self-consciously individualistic. They tend to see their difference from others as being both a gift and a curse - a gift, because it sets them apart from those they perceive as being somehow "common," and a curse, as it so often seems to separate them from the simpler forms of happiness that others so readily seem to enjoy

Moriarty's Type 3 Compadres


I would change out your Avatar for Rain Man, but the Hunchback of Notre Dame fits you even better, so I will leave that one up for now.

Now I will return to ignoring your imbecilic posting.

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« Last Edit: October 27, 2015, 06:00:17 AM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: How collapse could look like in Sweden
« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2015, 07:43:08 AM »
MKing did not test out as a three, as I recall. I guessed that, but I was wrong according to his self-reporting, which is likely more accurate than my guess.


What was it MK? Remember? I want to say five, but I'm too lazy to go back and check at this late date.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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