AuthorTopic: WW3??  (Read 105510 times)

Offline Palloy

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #75 on: December 03, 2015, 01:22:11 AM »
There doesn't seem to be much evidence of a blockade.  If this (below) is all it is, then it is probably just a hint by Turkey of what they could do.  I very much doubt that Vlad would tolerate that for more than 5 seconds.  Plans for how to manage a break-out by the Black Sea fleet must have been in place for decades, and they have a fleet in the Mediterranean as well.

https://russian.rt.com/article/133882 [via translate.google.com]

Earlier, media reported that the Turkish Coast Guard started exercises in the Sea of ​​Marmara, the Bosphorus Strait which is connected with the Black Sea and the Dardanelles to the Aegean Sea. Both Straits are essential passage-ways for delivery of materials and equipment for the operation against the terrorist organization "Islamic State" in Syria.

It also reported that Russian trade and cargo ships are forced to wait several hours for permission to pass through the Bosporus by Turkish authorities. In particular, the agency RUPTLY reported that the Russian-flagged ships must wait for hours for their turn, while the ships of other countries pass the straits without delay.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #76 on: December 03, 2015, 02:52:28 AM »
Quote
There doesn't seem to be much evidence of a blockade.  If this (below) is all it is, then it is probably just a hint by Turkey of what they could do.  I very much doubt that Vlad would tolerate that for more than 5 seconds. 

The usual googlesearching reveals nothing of the sort, aside from the usual hyperventilations by Alex Jones, Shepard Ambellas, et al.

Yet.
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Offline RE

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #77 on: December 03, 2015, 03:00:16 AM »
The usual googlesearching reveals nothing of the sort, aside from the usual hyperventilations by Alex Jones, Shepard Ambellas, et al.

Yet.

No Sinking the Turkish Bismark this week I guess.

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Turkey’s Dire Straits: The Prospect of a Bosphorus Blockade
« Reply #78 on: December 03, 2015, 06:27:30 AM »
This report on the Turkish "blockade" of Bosphorus and the Dardenelles appears to be more on the mark.

RE

http://southfront.org/turkeys-dire-straits-or-bosphorus-blockade/

Turkey’s Dire Straits: The Prospect of a Bosphorus Blockade


Written exclusively for SouthFront by J.Hawk

There have been conflicting reports on the current state of ship traffic through the Bosphorus, with a number of sources claiming that Turkey has implemented a blockade in order to cut off Russia’s “Syria Express” which is the logistical lifeline providing Russian and Syrian forces with equipment, munitions, and other necessities of modern warfare. Other sources, including the Russian Navy, have stated that the Russian naval vessels have not had problems transiting the straits, though there were also some reports of Turkish submarines making an appearance in close vicinity of the Russian ships. Yet other reports indicate that what the Turks are doing is simply harassment in the form of greatly delaying the processing of ships through the straits that does not rise to the level of violating the Montreaux Convention which prohibits the Turkish government from unilaterally closing the Bosphorus to shipping, unless the country is in a state of war or an emergency.

Neither Russia nor Turkey (or any other entity, for that matter) have issued any statements concerning this matter. Turkey has not officially announced any measures against Russian or other ships, and likewise Russia has not protested that its ships are being mishandled.  After the first wave of reports, there have not been additional dispatches from the Bosphorus suggesting the blockade is in effect and, even more crucially, no Russian “Syrian Express” ships has been reported as having been forced to return to Novorossiysk or Latakia due to its inability to cross the straits. Therefore it would seem that, at the moment of this writing, Erdogan is rattling the saber but has not quite decided to draw it just yet and actually close the straits. Indeed, considering that he has had that option ever since the Russian operation in Syria began and that the closing of the straits would actually hinder the Russian operation to a far greater extent than the attack on the Su-24 that killed one of its crew members and led to the loss of a search-and-rescue helicopter and the death of a Russian naval infantryman, it is odd that he had not made this move yet and opted instead to take the far riskier route of a military escalation. The fact that he had not done so suggests the act of closing the straits is not as easy or consequence-free for Turkey as it might appear.

Indeed, there would be significant political and economic costs for Turkey to do so. The country does collect a fair amount of revenue from the ships transiting the straits. If the straits are closed even once, it is highly that from now on these cargoes would no longer go by ship (lest Erdogan or some other unhinged Turkish leader decide to close them again, costing shipping and insurance firms millions of dollars) but by rail, after being offloaded in Greek ports (that prospect, in particular, would have to be galling to Erdogan). It would also damage Turkey’s reputation as a reliable economic partner if an element of political risk of this magnitude creeps into Turkey’s business partners’ calculations.

Moreover, closing the straits now is actually more difficult to do politically than before the Su-24 incident. Not only had Erdogan not received the political support from NATO he evidently hoped for, Putin had gone on the offensive in the form of releasing a flood of Russian intelligence information implicating Turkey in collusion with ISIS and buying stolen Syrian and Iraqi petroleum from the Islamic State. Even the US is now calling on Turkey to finally secure its borders and stop allowing militants (and, presumably, oil) to cross border to and from Syria. The fact that the Su-24 incident backfired on Erdogan, as the Russian aircraft have made targeting border areas with Turkey a priority, and NATO failed to act in accordance with Erdogan’s expectations by coming to Turkey’s “defense” and pressuring Russia to ratchet down its Syria campaign (which is actually escalating, as more aircraft are being deployed) means that he is rather constrained in his future responses. It is significant that whereas Western mainstream media wholly ignored the Russian MOD briefing on the MH17 shoot-down, they did report on its briefing detailing Turkey-ISIS oil trade.  Likewise the perception that Russia is fighting ISIS while Turkey is supporting the terrorist organization has become more widespread in the West, so much so that additional moves against Russia by Turkey would only reinforce that perception and leave Turkey more isolated in the internal arena. At this point, even the prospect of Turkey being expelled from NATO does not seem overly far-fetched. Having said that, Erdogan has painted himself into a corner and, like a cornered rat, he is liable to lash out. However, that lashing out is only likely to make the situation worse for him and for Turkey.

The Russian leadership is no doubt taking that threat seriously and it does have a variety of measures to potentially counteract it, though none of them are highly efficient solutions. Military action against Turkey is out of the question, as NATO (i.e., US) would almost certainly come to Turkey’s aid. Shipping goods via the Caspian Sea or using an overland route to Syria does not appear plausible considering the current configuration of borders and the extent of territory controlled by the Islamic State. A more promising solution would be to start supplying Syria using Baltic ports which would certainly make individual trips longer and therefore costlier, but also free from the interference of any NATO member as neither the Danish Straits nor Gibraltar can be closed in the way the Bosphorus can. Finally, Russia could attempt to negotiate an agreement with Iraq to establish an air base there, which could then be more easily supplied via the Caspian Sea and Iran and whose existence would allow the number of sorties generated by Hmeimim to be reduced. All of these are options open to the Russian leadership, Erdogan is clearly aware that even the Bosphorus blockade would likely not yield the desired result of crippling the Russian air campaign, which is probably the reason why so far he has not launched an all-out, official blockade of the Bosphorus.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #79 on: December 03, 2015, 11:29:48 PM »
I think that the Southfront article got the nuance just right.

Now Russia edges things forward a bit - not by crude sanctions against Turkish Stream, but by the Energy Minister saying they have suspended the Russian-Turkish Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meetings, thus making political progress impossible.  That the project wasn't already underway was probably due to US pressure on the EU, for them to not welcome it as a solution to their gas via Ukraine problem.

https://www.rt.com/business/324230-gazprom-turkish-stream-cancellation/
Russia halts Turkish Stream project over downed jet
2 Dec, 2015

Moscow has suspended the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project in response to Turkey shooting down a Russian jet in Syria, according to Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak.

"The negotiations on Turkish Stream have been suspended,” said Novak. The pipeline was discussed in the framework of the Russian-Turkish Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, which has been suspended, he added.

Gazprom's project has been on hold since the jet incident, awaiting instructions from the Russian government.

“We're expecting the head of state, in all likelihood, could declare the freezing of Turkish Stream, or at least some kind of timeout could be announced," an anonymous Gazprom source told Reuters on Wednesday.

“We are still hoping that Turkish Stream will be pushed back by a few years, rather than completely canceled," a second source said.

The Turkish Stream gas pipeline is one of the major projects for Russia and Turkey. It aims to deliver Russian natural gas to Turkey via the Black Sea, and then further to Southern Europe. The start of construction was scheduled for June but has been delayed as Moscow and Ankara failed to reach an intergovernmental agreement.

Since the incident with the Russian warplane, the future of the project has been unclear. Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev assumed last month that Turkish Stream and the Akkuyu nuclear power station could be among the projects affected by sanctions against Turkey.
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Offline RE

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Escalation in Syria leads to a Global War: Southfront Video
« Reply #80 on: December 04, 2015, 10:57:03 PM »
More great video clips from Southfront.  Also some good, if frightening analysis in this one.

RE

http://southfront.org/foreign-policy-diary-escalation-in-syria-leads-to-a-global-war/

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Offline Palloy

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #81 on: December 05, 2015, 01:47:31 PM »
RT doesn't mention it, but the Turks apparently were invited in by Masoud Barzani,  President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, thus making the region more of a de facto independent country.  The Turkish forces would have known that Baghdad's reaction would be to demand that they leave, so I don't suppose they will, making the situation even more tense.

Still, a Russia-Syria-Iraq(minus Kurdistan)-Iran axis against a NATO-Turkey-Kurdistan-Saudi Arabia, battling to get control of the territory ISIS now controls, is hotting up.  The US never managed to control Anbar Province in all the years they were there, and that is the key piece now.

https://www.rt.com/news/324787-turkish-troops-deployed-iraq/
‘Incursion’: Baghdad demands Turkey withdraw ‘training’ troops from northern Iraq
4 Dec, 2015

The Iraqi government has demanded that Ankara withdraw the more than 100 Turkish forces that entered Iraq with tanks and artillery for alleged “training” of troops near Islamic State-occupied Mosul. Baghdad stressed the unsanctioned move was a breach of its sovereignty.

The Iraqi foreign ministry said in a statement early on Saturday that the Turkish troops were acting in violation of the country’s sovereignty and demanded the forces withdraw immediately. “Around one regiment armoured with tanks and artillery” has entered the northern Nineveh area, according to the statement from the Iraqi Prime Minister’s media office.

“The Iraqi authorities call on Turkey to respect good neighbourly relations and to withdraw immediately from the Iraqi territory,” the statement said, stressing that the Turkish troops entered “without the request or authorization from the Iraqi federal authorities,” which is a “serious breach of Iraqi sovereignty.”

The foreign ministry called Turkey’s move “an incursion,” Reuters reported.

According to the agency’s source, the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition was aware of the Turkey's move.

“Turkish soldiers have reached the Mosul Bashiqa region. They are there as part of routine training exercises. One battalion has crossed into the region,” the source told Reuters without revealing the exact number of troops.

He added that the Turkish forces are “training Iraqi troops.”

However, according to two US defense officials quoted by Reuters, Turkey’s deployment is not part of the efforts of the US-led coalition battling Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL).

On Friday, 130 Turkish soldiers equipped with heavy weapons were deployed at a military base on the outskirts of the city of Mosul, which is currently held by IS, according to the Daily Sabah newspaper.

According to Cumhuriyet newspaper, the number of the deployed Turkish troops amounts to at least 150.

The town of Bashiqa is located about 10 kilometers northeast of Mosul.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Escalation in Syria leads to a Global War: Southfront Video
« Reply #82 on: December 05, 2015, 02:31:52 PM »
More great video clips from Southfront.  Also some good, if frightening analysis in this one.

RE

http://southfront.org/foreign-policy-diary-escalation-in-syria-leads-to-a-global-war/


Sounds like they have it about right. My guess is scenario three is exactly where this is headed.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #83 on: December 05, 2015, 04:44:32 PM »
Always worthwhile getting a Turkish view on things.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-military-to-have-a-base-in-iraqs-mosul.aspx?pageID=238&nID=92113&NewsCatID=352
6 December 2015

<snip>
For more than two years, Turkey has had a group of soldiers in Bashiqa, located 32 kilometers north of Mosul, which is under Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) control. The soldiers have been training the Peshmerga forces and other anti-ISIL groups.

Some 150 Turkish soldiers and 20 tanks were deployed to the base to take over the mission from the 90 soldiers who have been in the region for two years.   

With the increased number of Turkish soldiers deployed to the base, an increase is expected in the number of militia trained.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-puts-request-for-bigger-turkish-air-role-on-hold-over-russia-tensions.aspx?PageID=238&NID=92111&NewsCatID=352
US puts request for bigger Turkish air role on hold over Russia tensions
5 December 2015
WASHINGTON – Reuters

Since Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet last week, the United States has quietly put on hold a long-standing request for its NATO ally to play a more active role in the U.S.-led air war against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The move, disclosed to Reuters by a U.S. official, is aimed at allowing just enough time for heightened Turkey-Russia tensions to ease. Turkey has not flown any coalition air missions in Syria against ISIL since the Nov. 24 incident, two U.S. officials said.

The pause is the latest complication over Turkey's role to have tested the patience of U.S. war planners, who want a more assertive Turkish contribution, particularly in securing a section of border with Syria.

As Britain starts strikes in Syria and France ramps up its role in the wake of last month's attacks on Paris by the extremist group, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter publicly appealed this week for a greater Turkish military role.

The top U.S. priority is for Turkey to secure its southern border with Syria, the first official said. U.S. concern is focused on a roughly 98-km stretch allegedly used by ISIL to shuttle foreign fighters and illicit trade back and forth.

But the United States also wants to see more Turkish air strikes devoted to ISIL, even as Washington firmly supports Ankara's strikes against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), viewed by both countries as a terrorist group.

Carter told a congressional hearing this week that most Turkish air operations have been targeted at the PKK rather than at ISIL, but U.S. officials acknowledge some promising signs from Turkey, including moves to secure key border crossings.

For example, Turkish F-16 fighter jets last month joined an air operation to support Syrian rebels taking back two villages from ISIL along the so-called Mara Line, a senior Obama administration official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The United States does not give data on the number or type of missions conducted by Turkish air force flights in Syria.

Turkey rejects any suggestion it is not playing its part in the fight against ISIL.

"We have taken part in at least half of the operations," a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

"Apart from that, Turkey takes part in identifying targets and providing logistics and bases. We are in close cooperation with the U.S."

Russian President Vladimir Putin branded Turkey's shoot-down a “war crime” on Dec. 3 and said Turkey would face further sanctions. Moscow has already banned some Turkish food imports as part of a wider package of retaliatory sanctions.

The United States hopes that tensions between Moscow and Ankara will ease quickly, allowing Turkey to take a more prominent role inside the U.S.-led coalition's air campaign, the first official said.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the status of Turkish flights since the shoot-down. Two Turkish officials declined to directly comment but stressed that Turkey remained part of the air coalition.

"For us nothing has changed," a senior Turkish official told Reuters.
[Except it has, apparently - Palloy]
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Offline Surly1

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #84 on: December 06, 2015, 03:16:47 AM »
Week Nine of the Russian Intervention in Syria: The Empire Strikes Back

THE SAKER DECEMBER 5, 2015
 
« Last Edit: December 07, 2015, 10:07:41 AM by Surly1 »
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Offline RE

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US Building Military Airbase in Northeastern Syria
« Reply #85 on: December 06, 2015, 06:51:44 AM »
Just what we need! ANOTHER Airbase in the Warzone!  This will help a lot I am sure.  ::)

RE

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940914000257

US Building Military Airbase in Northeastern Syria


TEHRAN (FNA)- US experts are reconstructing and equipping a desolate airport special to carrying agricultural products in the region controlled by the Kurdish forces in Hasaka region, Northeastern Syria, to turn it into a military base.

The Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Saturday that a number of US experts have entered the region since 50 days ago to develop and prepare the runways with 2,500m length and 250m width to be used by fighter jets.

Abu Hajar airport which has not been used since 2010 is located in Tal al-Hajar region in the Eastern countryside of Hasaka which is controlled by the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG).


The airbase is located Southeast of the town of Rimelan, which is one of the YPG’s main strongholds and “largest arms and ammunition depots”.

The US has not received or even asked for a permission from Damascus for reconstructing the airbase. The United States does not have a UN mandate for interventing in the Syria war.

The airport will help enable Washington to add an additional safe place to land its forces, commando units for instance, and bring in military support to its allies who are working to finalize control over Southern Hasaka countryside, al-Akhbar said.

The report came over a week after the Kurdish region said that the US and Kurdish forces were working together to construct a 10 hectare military airbase South of the town of Rimelan in the village of Rimelan al-Basha.

“American experts are directly supervising the airbase with a Kurdish workforce,” the reports claimed, saying that US unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) had been flown from the facility to test it.

The report also said that two helicopter had flown over the town of Rimelan on November 24 and landed eight US military specialists at the airport. 

Interestingly, the Kurdish YPG issued a statement saying that “two unknown helicopters” had flown over Rimelan on the same day.

The following day, the Kurdish media said that residents in the nearby village of Cil Axa had heard helicopters overhead, although they claimed they were Turkish.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #86 on: December 06, 2015, 10:49:03 AM »
They should build walled encampments around the oil wells, like Mad Max.
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Offline K-Dog

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #87 on: December 06, 2015, 05:01:06 PM »
They should build walled encampments around the oil wells, like Mad Max.

I see a story of a group of Syrians around such a well filling up a tanker so they can then break through circling ISIL barbarians.  They are helped by a wandering Syrian refugee who leads the ISIL barbarians off on a diversion with the tanker full of sand while the group at the well escapes in a school bus.  They escape to a green land where they live in peace and start new lives. 

The story ends with the narrator relating this tale many years later from his home in Sweden where he lives as the leader of the group of Syrians who escaped to the Turkish border on the school bus.  The oil on the school bus sold in Turkey and delivered to Texas funds the groups exodus to Sweden.

Would Hollywood be interested?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2015, 12:54:16 PM by K-Dog »
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Offline RE

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WW3??: NATO Bombs Syrian Defense Force instead of ISIS
« Reply #88 on: December 07, 2015, 06:28:59 AM »
Denied of course.

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Offline edpell

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Re: WW3??
« Reply #89 on: December 07, 2015, 08:19:28 AM »
What's with all the brown background?

US in complete violation of UN Charter no one in west cares. Sad.