AuthorTopic: Official EV Carz Thread  (Read 29707 times)

Offline azozeo

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Re: Official EV Carz Thread
« Reply #240 on: April 04, 2019, 11:54:53 AM »
Most people won't have the capability of installing that level of charging service at home, I'm pretty sure.

Most houses only have 100amp service for the entire HOUSE.

From the 1990's forward, homes out this way all have 220 amp srvc in the garage.

Houses usually have 100 amps for smaller square footage and big houses have 200 amp service. Maybe you're thinking volts, not amps.  220V (nominal 240V now actually) service is standard in all US  houses. The number of amps you need has to do with how many energy hog appliances you have.


Yeah your right. I'm not a juice guy....
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline azozeo

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Re: 🔌 Tesla deliveries fall—especially for high-end Model S and X
« Reply #241 on: April 04, 2019, 11:58:42 AM »
The Taycan is probably not a good basic transport example but I think the trend is personal charging for personal commuting. Or point to point charge points (slow charge at home, slow charge at destination). Super chargers are necessary but can be deployed with growing ev numbers just like gas stations did. I know 3 electric car drivers and they almost never use a public charge station unless they are travelling long distances and they plan carefully. How far do most people travel? Long trip? rent borrow or own a fossil fueler, day to day plodding use your electric.

That's not the point.  They claim a 4 minute charge time.  They don't tell you what kind of power source you need to do that, or where you can find it.  That is a Bait & Switch sales technique.

RE
so in the video 60 miles in 4 minutes. Using Tesla numbers its roughly 3 mile per kW Hr. So 20 kW Hr in 4 minutes 300 kW Hr per hour. in Europe 3 phase is common so the theoretical super charger would probably be located in an industrial area serviced by a 3 phase grid... its doable in other words. Forget McDonalds think more about Graingers or Fastenal or jiffylube... The handle they show hooking up to it looks very similar to the 30 amp 240 charger I've seen so 7000watts and change delivered or 21 Miles of range per hour... My point was that the at home option will become the default grid not a supercharger network.


For example, Barstow  Calif. to the Az. state line there's NOTHING. Needles Calif. is the next point of civilization.

Driving northward outta' Vegas again, nothing ness for hundreds of miles. Texas, most of Canada, the list goes on. No infrastructure has even been marketed as I type
that I'm aware of.
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Official EV Carz Thread
« Reply #242 on: April 04, 2019, 12:05:55 PM »
Most people won't have the capability of installing that level of charging service at home, I'm pretty sure.

Most houses only have 100amp service for the entire HOUSE.

From the 1990's forward, homes out this way all have 220 amp srvc in the garage.

Houses usually have 100 amps for smaller square footage and big houses have 200 amp service. Maybe you're thinking volts, not amps.  220V (nominal 240V now actually) service is standard in all US  houses. The number of amps you need has to do with how many energy hog appliances you have.
all new builds here are 200 amp 240v service. Most of the mcmansions are installing 400 amp service.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official EV Carz Thread
« Reply #243 on: April 04, 2019, 12:59:55 PM »
I think I have 200 amp service. I'd have to check. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

 My house was built way back in '93 if memory serves. I have 2 big heat pumps and a pool pump and 2 hot water heaters...washer, dryer, DW, five bedrooms. 400 amp service seems like overkill, but if that's what Canada is building, the US is probably doing too.
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Offline azozeo

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Re: Official EV Carz Thread
« Reply #244 on: April 04, 2019, 02:07:13 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/CEz0uCcxshc&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/CEz0uCcxshc&fs=1</a>
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: 🔌 Tesla deliveries fall—especially for high-end Model S and X
« Reply #245 on: April 04, 2019, 05:07:39 PM »
The Taycan is probably not a good basic transport example but I think the trend is personal charging for personal commuting. Or point to point charge points (slow charge at home, slow charge at destination). Super chargers are necessary but can be deployed with growing ev numbers just like gas stations did. I know 3 electric car drivers and they almost never use a public charge station unless they are travelling long distances and they plan carefully. How far do most people travel? Long trip? rent borrow or own a fossil fueler, day to day plodding use your electric.

That's not the point.  They claim a 4 minute charge time.  They don't tell you what kind of power source you need to do that, or where you can find it.  That is a Bait & Switch sales technique.

RE
so in the video 60 miles in 4 minutes. Using Tesla numbers its roughly 3 mile per kW Hr. So 20 kW Hr in 4 minutes 300 kW Hr per hour. in Europe 3 phase is common so the theoretical super charger would probably be located in an industrial area serviced by a 3 phase grid... its doable in other words. Forget McDonalds think more about Graingers or Fastenal or jiffylube... The handle they show hooking up to it looks very similar to the 30 amp 240 charger I've seen so 7000watts and change delivered or 21 Miles of range per hour... My point was that the at home option will become the default grid not a supercharger network.


For example, Barstow  Calif. to the Az. state line there's NOTHING. Needles Calif. is the next point of civilization.

Driving northward outta' Vegas again, nothing ness for hundreds of miles. Texas, most of Canada, the list goes on. No infrastructure has even been marketed as I type
that I'm aware of.
those routes will be served by fossil fuel vehicles for some time I imagine..
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline RE

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🔌 The Chinese Electric Car Market Is a Bubble Ready to Burst
« Reply #246 on: April 16, 2019, 01:03:30 AM »
https://jalopnik.com/the-chinese-electric-car-market-is-a-bubble-ready-to-bu-1834046559

The Chinese Electric Car Market Is a Bubble Ready to Burst
Justin T. Westbrook
Yesterday 10:08amFiled to: Volkswagen

Photo: AP Images

The Morning ShiftAll your daily car news in one convenient place. Isn't your time more important?

There’s too many cooks in the Chinese electric vehicle market, VW’s former CEO has been charged over Dieselgate in Germany, Elon Musk admits he’s always been “crazy on Twitter,” and so much more for the Morning Shift of Monday, April 15, 2019.

1st Gear: China’s EV Bubble May Pop

China’s market of 486 registered electric vehicle companies may be on the brink of collapse, Bloomberg reports, citing a lack of demand and signs that the market just won’t grow quick enough to sustain so many automakers.

More from Bloomberg:

    “We are going to see great waves sweeping away sand in the EV industry,’’ said Thomas Fang, a partner and strategy consultant at Roland Berger in Shanghai. “It is a critical moment that will decide life or death for EV startups.’’

    [...]

    The startups promise to deliver a collective manufacturing capacity of 3.9 million vehicles a year. That’s excluding what some of the world’s biggest automakers are planning.

    China’s big, but it’s not that big. Annual sales of passenger EVs only surpassed 1 million units for the first time last year, according to BNEF, spurred by the subsidies that could slice thousands of dollars off the sticker price.

Even the Chinese government’s push to sell seven million electric cars a year by 2025 likely wouldn’t be able to sustain a profitably output from all of the new EV factories going up, leading more and more startups slipping into the red in the coming years.

The Chinese market also faces incoming competition from Volkswagen, Ford and Tesla, with a new Shanghai Gigafactory recently announced, and the potential loss of China’s full $7,500 vehicle subsidy program. That could be catastrophic for the smaller startups still trying to establish themselves.
2nd Gear: It’s the Startups That Are Innovating EVs, Though

On that note, electric vehicle innovation seems to be shifting to the startup businesses and away from the big established automakers, as Reuters reports.

Companies like Tesla, Nio, Rimac, and Pininfarina were all able to produce EVs with impressive performance capabilities with small teams, in contrast to the slow pace of bigger, more established automakers developing their first EV models.

It even took startup Rivian to introduce the first mainstream electric pickup truck concept in a U.S. market where truck and off-road sales are commonly the biggest and most profitable segments for established automakers like Ford and GM.

But Reuters focuses more on Pininfarina hiring Rene-Christopher Wollmann, the guy behind Mercedes-AMG’s Project One supercar program:

    Wollman’s move, which has not been made public, comes at a time when big carmakers, like Volkswagen and Mercedes, have been blindsided by stricter and costly emissions tests, forcing them to focus resources on mainstream electric models and on cleaning up their combustion engines.

    [...]

    “Large companies take time to transform. And I am good at hypercars. I just did Project One, and now this opportunity came,” 37-year-old Wollmann told Reuters about his reason for joining Automobili Pininfarina, a Munich-based electric carmaker that launched last year.

    [...]

    “Rene Wollmann came to us because he said it was difficult to realize projects like these at a large company,” Michael Perschke, Automobili Pininfarina’s Chief Executive told Reuters.

Wollmann was also the guy behind the electric Mercedes AMG SLS, and it’s a little surprising to see him have to jump ship to go find fulfilling projects. It’s probably good for Pininfarina and definitely not a good look for Mercedes-AMG.
3rd Gear: Former VW CEO Winterkorn and Four Others Charged With Dieselgate Fraud

Former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn, who bailed out of the company following the Dieselgate revelations that he allegedly allowed his companies to cheat diesel emissions tests, is being charged with fraud and violation of competition law along with four other executives as announced by prosecutors in the city of Brunswick via Automotive News.

Here’s more from Auto News:

    Winterkorn is accused of serious fraud because he failed to disclose the illegal manipulation of diesel engines to the responsible authorities in Europe and the U.S. and to customers. He also failed to prohibit the further installation of “defeat device” software after May 25, 2014, resulting in significantly higher fines, the statement said.

    The prosecutors allege that Winterkorn approved a software update in November 2014 at a cost of 23 million euros, which was “useless and was intended to further conceal the true reason for the increased pollutant levels in normal vehicle operation.”

Winterkorn has already been criminally charged over Dieselgate in the U.S., but hasn’t been tried or arrested since he isn’t stupid enough to leave Germany right now, his home country that won’t extradite him. Of course, eventually even Germany was going to get around to prosecuting him, so we’ll see what happens next.
4th Gear: Musk Still Tweeting Questionable Forecast Figures

Elon Musk, the guy just doesn’t learn. After already having to step down as Chairman of Tesla and pay a $20 million fine in a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the two parties are currently reworking the language of their settlement under orders from a U.S. District Judge.

Musk’s latest tweets are similar to those that got him in trouble in the first place, Bloomberg reports, and it could throw yet another wrench into his dealings with the SEC:

    Musk wrote Sunday that Tesla will make more than 500,000 cars in the next 12 months. A similar tweet sent almost two months ago in which Musk said the company would build half a million vehicles in 2019 led the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to argue he was in contempt of a settlement reached with the regulator last year.

    The latest forecast, given as a seemingly innocuous aside in a discussion about the future value of Tesla vehicles, nonetheless came as Musk’s lawyers are negotiating with the SEC over an agreement that put controls on the billionaire’s tweeting. A U.S. judge gave the two sides until April 18 to meet for at least an hour and resolve their differences. If they can’t, she’ll rule whether Musk is in contempt.

    [...]

    Musk on Saturday disputed reports that Panasonic had boosted annualized battery cell production capacity at the plant to 35 gigawatt hours, saying the company’s lines were only at 24 gigawatt hours and have been constraining output of Tesla’s Model 3 sedan.

He also recently tweeted that the Wall Street Journal are “sock puppets” of “big oil,” and repeatedly supported other Twitter users calling out Bloomberg reporter Dana Hull, claiming it was “embarrassing” that the Tesla Twitter account followed her.

Log off, Elon. Or don’t. I can always rely on you for Morning Shift gears.
5th Gear: Boeing 737 MAX Flight Groundings Are Spoiling Airlines’ Summer

Following two fatal crashes forcing airlines to ground all flights scheduled with their Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, companies now worry they may not be able to meet the demand of the summer flying season, Reuters reports:

    Southwest Airlines Co, the world’s largest MAX operator, and American Airlines Group Inc with 34 and 24 MAX jetliners respectively, have removed the aircraft from their flying schedules into August.

    Southwest’s decision will lead to 160 cancellations of some 4,200 daily flights between June 8 and Aug. 5, while American’s removal through Aug. 19 means about 115 daily cancellations, or 1.5 percent of its summer flying schedule each day.

    Low-cost carrier Southwest, which unlike its rivals only flies Boeing 737s, had estimated $150 million in lost revenue between Feb. 20 and March 31 alone due to MAX cancellations and other factors.

    [...]

    The timing of a prolonged grounding could not be worse for Northern Hemisphere carriers. Planes run fullest during June, July and August, when airlines earn the most revenue per available seat mile, according to U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

It’s still unclear exactly how big of an impact the 737 MAX cancellations will have, but some airlines are even considering bringing idled plans back into commission to try to put a dent in the problem.

Boeing is currently working on an upgrade to what’s believed to be the software at fault in both recent crashes, Reuters reports, but the fix will take a few months to implement and the plane will have to be re-certified to fly before it can be scheduled again.
Reverse: Second-Place Winner of the 1910 Vanderbilt Cup Race Dies in Titanic Tragedy
Race car driver goes down with the Titanic

On this day in 1912, Washington Augustus Roebling II, a 31-year-old race car engineer and driver,…
Read on history.​com
Neutral: Which EVs Are You Most Excited About?

The top talent and innovative ideas may all be focused around EV startups like Rimac, Pininfarina, and Rivian, but some of the more traditional automakers are also giving it a shot. I’m particularly excited for the upcoming Porsche Taycan, but which EVs are you most excited for?
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Offline azozeo

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The World’s Biggest Electric Vehicle Company Looks Nothing Like Tesla
« Reply #247 on: April 18, 2019, 03:48:48 PM »



BYD, which built the battery in your ’90s cellphone, now produces more EVs than anyone—and it wants to sell them to you, soon.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-16/the-world-s-biggest-electric-vehicle-company-looks-nothing-like-tesla?utm_source=pocket-newtab



I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline azozeo

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The Twilight of Combustion Comes for Germany's Empire of Engines
« Reply #248 on: April 18, 2019, 03:55:51 PM »
Fewer parts, fewer jobs  :coffee:

The nation that invented the heart of the car at the dawn of the 20th century might struggle to adapt to the coming electric era.

By Elisabeth Behrmann


The completed combustion engine fitted into a BMW M5 is a 1,200-piece puzzle that weighs more than 400 pounds. There are about 150 moving parts whose interlocking precision can catapult a six-figure sports car to 60 miles per hour in 3.3 seconds. The engine hulking under the bright lights of the vast BMW factory hall in Dingolfing, Germany, has come together from a web of hundreds of suppliers and many, many hands.

The electric-vehicle motor produced in the same factory is different in almost every respect: light enough for a single person to lift, with just two dozen parts in total, and lacking an exhaust, transmission, or fuel tank. The battery cells themselves are mostly an industrial commodity, products bought in bulk from someone else. No one brags about the unique power of BMW’s electric drivetrain.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-bmw-electric-car-german-engines/?srnd=hyperdrive
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline RE

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🔌 Elon Musk: Robotaxi Teslas Are Coming In A Year (If Regulators Say Yes)
« Reply #249 on: April 23, 2019, 12:23:31 AM »
ANOTHER prediction from Elon!  ::)

Be sure to wear your fireproof BVDs when you hail a Tesla Cab!

RE

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/gcCmfzhhpxA" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/gcCmfzhhpxA</a>
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Offline RE

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🔌 Tesla Is Losing Money Again As Deliveries Decline
« Reply #250 on: April 25, 2019, 03:09:08 AM »
Not a good month for Elon to stop shooting Speedballs.  He needs to get Comfortably Numb. 💉

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/gqKE05eEUb4" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/gqKE05eEUb4</a>

RE

https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-losing-money-again-deliveries-decline/

Tesla Is Losing Money Again As Deliveries Decline
Mason Trinca/The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Author: Aarian MarshallAarian Marshall


2019 has been rocky for electric-auto maker Tesla: It announced it would start rolling out Model 3 sedans priced at $35,000, then made it more difficult to order them. It said it would close all of its showrooms, then said it would keep some open—and raise prices to compensate. CEO Elon Musk predicted that 1 million of its fully self-driving robotaxis would roam the country by next year, even though it has yet to complete its autonomous technology. And Musk continued to tussle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission over his Twitter habit.

The roller coaster continues: On Wednesday, Tesla said it had snapped its two-quarter streak of profits, by posting a $702 million loss for the first quarter amid delivery and logistical woes. The loss was worse than Wall Street chin-strokers expected, equivalent to $2.90 per share, compared with predictions of a 69 cent loss.

As the company continues to grind out production and Musk makes bold claims about autonomous vehicles, the numbers prove that running a car company sometimes comes down to fundamentals, like getting the vehicles into people’s garages.

The report also left a lingering question: Can Tesla make enough money to survive as an “affordable” electric company, one focused on selling Model 3s rather than luxury, higher-margin Model S and X vehicles? Now that buyers have the option of purchasing a more affordable vehicle, “Musk will never sell as many of those higher-priced and higher-profit cars as he used to sell,” says Karl Brauer, the executive publisher of automotive research publication Kelley Blue Book. “Now Tesla lives and dies on the Model 3.”

Tesla, for its part, says it doesn’t believe the Model 3 is cannibalizing sales of its luxury vehicles. “They really do seem to be different market segments,” Musk said on the call.

Tesla pinned the quarterly loss—its largest since last summer—on a few factors, most notably challenges in delivering vehicles overseas. Tesla delivered only 63,000 vehicles in the first quarter, down 31 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018, and just 12,100 luxury S and X Models, down by half from the fourth quarter. Getting cars to customers in China and Europe “was the most difficult logistics problem I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen some tough ones,” Musk told investors on a call. He restated what the company reported earlier this month: Half of its quarterly deliveries came in the final 10 days of the quarter, creating a crunch that proved unpleasant for employees and customers alike. The company will work on rethinking and refining its delivery strategies throughout the quarter, Musk said, but he advised shareholders not to expect another profit until the second half of the year.

A forthcoming factory in Shanghai might also help Tesla out overseas, and will give it a solid foothold in a protectionist country that’s seriously into electric vehicles. Musk reported that construction is “going amazingly well” and said he expects to reach volume production in Shanghai by the end of the year. Musk has previously said that Tesla is looking into establishing an assembly plant in Europe.

The company also said sales suffered from the planned and gradual phase-out of the federal electric vehicle credit—a problem for a carmaker intent on selling its electrics to the masses. In January, potential Tesla buyers saw the original $7,500 credit cut in half, to $3,750, a move the company has suggested motivated buyers to purchase vehicles in the last quarter of 2018. But the credit will only drop further in the coming months, to $1,875 in July and to zero in 2020.

Tesla said its compact SUV, the Model Y, is still slated for production in 2020. Musk said Tesla had started ordering the equipment needed to build the vehicle, though it hasn’t yet decided whether it will make the Model Y in its Fremont, California, plant or at the Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada.

Musk beat back questions about slackening demand for the company’s cars, raised by frequent price shifts and feature repackagings over the past quarter. “We do see strong demand for the vehicles,” Musk said, calling the $39,500 Model 3 Standard Plus “an incredibly compelling vehicle, affordable to the top 40 percent of income earners in the US and Europe.” (The car now comes with the company’s semi-automated Autopilot feature as standard.)

Tesla stock fell only slightly in aftermarket trading, by 0.3 percent on Wednesday evening, suggesting investors were prepared for the bad news. In fact, the company’s stock had taken a larger hit earlier in the day, when Detroit giant Ford announced it will invest $500 million in the electric vehicle startup Rivian—a small but growing Tesla rival that has promised two 400-mile-range, fully electric utility vehicles by the end of next year. Ford said it would work with Rivian to develop a new EV. Which hints at another challenge for Tesla on the horizon, born in part from its own success: Soon, the best-selling electric vehicle in the world will have much more competition.
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Offline RE

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🔌 Tesla just entered uncharted territory
« Reply #251 on: April 26, 2019, 12:41:45 AM »
Time for Elon to break out the Fentanyl.

RE

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-enthusiasts-and-analysts-enter-uncharted-territory-2019-4

Tesla just entered uncharted territory
Matthew DeBord


elon musk Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Patrick Fallon / Reuters

TSLA Tesla
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Disclaimer Get real-time TSLA charts here »

Analysis banner

    Tesla posted a huge quarterly loss on Wednesday, reversing two straight quarters of positive revenue and profits.
    Tesla's biggest challenge now is simply delivering vehicles to customers.
    Analysts and Tesla enthusiasts are entering unexplored territory — Tesla has never operated at these production and expense levels.

For nearly its entire history, Tesla has been pegged as a tech company — a creation of Silicon Valley, where the firm is headquartered.

By "tech," I don't mean "technology." Major automakers are awash in technology and have been for more than a century. They aren't sitting around Detroit with great big hammers banging on rusty hunks of iron.

Rather, I mean the software and the culture that pervades Silicon Valley, where billion-dollar businesses can be quickly built by companies with a dozen laptops, some Amazon server space, and cold brew on tap. Tesla has never really been in this industry. Instagram weighed literally nothing before it was acquired by Facebook. Tesla's first viable product, the original Roadster, tipped the scales at 3,000 pounds.

Read more: The real reason Tesla is showing off its self-driving tech

For years, a large number of Tesla bulls on Wall Street and boosters of the company elsewhere have been trying to jam the round peg of a carmaker into the square hole of a software firm (or a consumer-electronics enterprise, if you like the Apple analogy). Their argument, weak to begin with, collided headlong with reality on Wednesday when Tesla reported awful first-quarter earnings, losing about $700 billion on greatly reduced revenue of about $4.5 billion (a huge dip from the previous quarter's more than $7 billion total).

Getting cars to customers is harder than it looks


Tesla Model SA Tesla store. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The loss is easy to explain: Tesla built 63,000 Model 3 vehicles in the first quarter (the remaining production amounted to about 12,000 Model S and Model X cars), and because it operates a single assembly plant on the West Coast, it struggled mightily to get cars to customers, especially outside the US.

Tesla is now the leading electric-car manufacturer on the planet, so this particular challenge should only get worse if demand holds up at current levels. Tesla's system of getting cars to its customers is its biggest liability right now. Financially, it resembles what happens when large automakers experience a sales collapse (when they also can't book deliveries). In 2005, for example, Ford notched a modest profit in the fourth quarter, but a year later, the No. 2 US automaker lost $6 billion — and more than $12 billion in 2006. The company didn't return to full-year profitability until 2010.

Because the car business is staggeringly expensive to run, there needs to be some compensation to even attempt to be in it — and that's the equally staggering amount of cash that automakers see slosh through their operations. Cars are very expensive things. Tesla's sell for between $40,000 and $150,000. Hence the revenue surge in the second half of 2018 for Tesla.

Of course, if you can't smoothly execute in this context — even absent an outside shock to sales — then when you lose money, you lose a lot of money. The leaders of big car companies know this and manage their businesses accordingly. Musk is starting to figure it out, and that's why he was quite subdued during Wednesday's earnings call with analysts after the crummy numbers were announced. He was a Ph.D. candidate in physics before he became the Thomas Edison of Silicon Valley — and the laws of physics say that if you can't move a 2 ton machine from California to Europe in a timely manner, you'll have to wait to get paid.


Tesla Detroit sales vs market cap Andy Kiersz/Business Insider

Tesla isn't as big as it looks — but it's starting to experience real car-company economics

In many ways, this situation highlights the bind that Tesla is in as a public company. We forget that Tesla raised just $226 million in its 2010 initial public offering, with its stock trading at about $20 for several years thereafter. In about a decade, Tesla has gone from being completely insignificant to being sort of important, selling about 250,000 vehicles last year. Its market capitalization, meanwhile, has surpassed Ford's and at times exceeded General Motors'.

That obviously doesn't compute, but there is one useful takeaway: Tesla is chewing into the auto industry and making exceptional progress at proving the case for electric vehicles.

But the more market share Tesla amasses, the more its economics are going to be car-company economics. I don't mean to diminish the company's software-powered technologies — on examination, what it's doing with full-self-driving tech is astonishing, as we learned during its autonomy-focused investor day this week. But clearly, logistics hell has now supplanted production hell as Tesla's biggest obstacle.

Tesla can fix this, but it's going to take a while. Debugging the real world is time consuming. On the plus side, car companies, just like Tesla, have been doing it for 100 years.

Get the latest Tesla stock price here.
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Offline azozeo

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EV Carz - From The Mouth of A Man That Doesn't Like Electric Carz
« Reply #252 on: April 27, 2019, 06:18:42 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/NZhV-V6nSWo&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/NZhV-V6nSWo&fs=1</a>
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

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🔌 This Elon Musk Comment Should Terrify Tesla Investors
« Reply #253 on: April 29, 2019, 12:40:58 AM »
WTF is Elon smoking?  ???   :icon_scratch:

Hey Elon!  BROKE people don't buy Exploding Carz!

RE

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/28/elon-musk-comment-should-terrify-tesla-investors.aspx

This Elon Musk Comment Should Terrify Tesla Investors
Despite reporting a huge loss for Q1, Tesla expects to return to profitability in the second half of 2019. However, Elon Musk and his team appear to be counting on a big bounce in demand that isn't likely to materialize.


Adam Levine-Weinberg
(TMFGemHunter)
Apr 28, 2019 at 10:21PM

Last week, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported ugly results for the first quarter of 2019. The electric car pioneer had warned of impending trouble earlier this month, but investors were still caught off guard by the scale of its losses. Tesla's net loss of $4.10 per share -- or $2.90 per share, excluding stock-based compensation costs -- was worse than even the most bearish analysts' estimates. On average, analysts had been expecting a loss of just $0.69 per share.

Not surprisingly, Tesla's terrible Q1 results did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, Musk confidently predicted that Tesla will return to solid profitability in the second half of 2019 and will produce positive free cash flow beginning this quarter.

However, one comment Musk made during the Tesla earnings call should make investors extremely skeptical of these rosy predictions. Let's take a look.
Tesla has a demand problem

A sharp sequential drop in vehicle deliveries was the main cause of Tesla's first-quarter earnings wipeout. Tesla delivered about 63,000 vehicles last quarter, down by 31% from the fourth quarter of 2018. The Model S and Model X performed especially poorly, with 12,100 deliveries combined, down more than 50% compared to the company's typical run rate for 2017 and 2018.
A silver Tesla Model S driving on a road

Tesla Model S and Model X sales plunged last quarter. Image source: Tesla.

Part of the slowdown was driven by a planned increase in the number of vehicles in transit to customers outside the United States. Logistics problems also pushed some deliveries into the second quarter. That said, weak demand was the primary cause of the big decline in Model S and Model X deliveries.

Model 3 demand has cooled noticeably as well. Many investors had expected the introduction of the $35,000 standard-range Model 3 to create a huge backlog of demand that would take months to fill. Price cuts for higher-end variants should have added to that demand.

Instead, Tesla is currently promising deliveries within two weeks for all versions of the Model 3 across most, if not all, of the United States. That's a huge change from a couple of years ago, when Elon Musk claimed the Model 3 reservations list was growing steadily even as Tesla was "anti-selling" the car, with no advertising, no discounts, and no test-drives available.
Musk expects a quick rebound in orders

Tesla's projections that free cash flow and earnings will return to positive territory soon depend on a rebound in deliveries. The company's official full-year guidance calls for 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries, including 90,000 to 100,000 in the second quarter. At the midpoint of those ranges, Tesla would have to deliver an average of 111,000 vehicles per quarter in the second half of 2019, 76% ahead of its Q1 delivery rate.
A silver Tesla Model 3 parked on a road, with a green field in the background

Elon Musk expects Tesla's order activity to grow steadily over the course of 2019. Image source: Tesla.

However, it's becoming clear that order activity would need to accelerate dramatically to support that level of growth. During the Q1 earnings call, Musk stated, "So, with the recently announced product improvements on Model S and X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect the order rate to increase significantly throughout the year ... commensurate with our production levels." He reinforced that point later in the call in response to an analyst's question, noting that "people just generally don't like buying cars in winter."

It's true that auto sales tend to be seasonally weak during January and February. However, the introduction of the $35,000 Model 3 and price cuts for the rest of Tesla's portfolio should have boosted demand. Furthermore, March and April tend to be stronger months, so Tesla's order activity should have already rebounded to whatever level is sustainable.

Instead, Musk's comments on the earnings call indicate that he is counting on order activity to continue accelerating throughout 2019. That should be very worrisome for investors, because it means Tesla's forecast for the rest of the year is likely built on unrealistic assumptions.
When it comes to Tesla, skepticism pays

Experience shows that Musk's apparent confidence that demand will accelerate throughout 2019 doesn't mean much. For example, Musk stated on Tesla's first-quarter earnings call that he was "optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward." Instead, Tesla lost more than $700 million last quarter and expects to report another loss in Q2.

In fact, there are good reasons to doubt that demand will recover, particularly in the U.S., which has historically accounted for the bulk of Tesla's sales. First, Tesla has already exhausted the pool of pent-up domestic Model 3 demand. Second, the federal electric vehicle tax credit for Tesla purchases is set to fall by 50% ($1,875) on July 1, raising the effective price of a Tesla in the second half of 2019. Third, many potential buyers may choose to wait for the Model Y crossover that was unveiled last month. Crossovers are far more popular than sedans today.

Musk is trying increasingly outlandish tricks to pump up demand for Tesla vehicles, such as his recent claim that Tesla owners will be able to make up to $30,000 annually by renting out their vehicles through a robotaxi network as soon as next year. (Most experts agree that a wide rollout of robotaxis will take years or even decades to achieve.) That may persuade some consumers to buy a Tesla, but it isn't likely to be a long-term game changer.

To be sure, there are plenty of interesting projects under way at Tesla. However, if history is a guide, they could all take longer than expected to execute. Meanwhile, demand is cooling for Tesla's existing vehicles, which may lead to a big shortfall in deliveries in 2019 and 2020. That could further stress Tesla's weak balance sheet and drive its share price even lower.

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« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 12:42:35 AM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Official EV Carz Thread
« Reply #254 on: April 29, 2019, 06:27:21 AM »
Tesla is not the future. The future, if there is one, won't even be here. That's because, in our late-stage empire, we make a great many policy mistakes, because our system is incredibly corrupt.



Chinese electric car maker BYD reports 632% jump in profits as Tesla falters

By Ephrat LivniApril 28, 2019

Electric car maker BYD is speeding ahead of Tesla with respect to profitability. The Chinese company today (April 28) reported a 632% jump in profits in the first quarter from a year ago. Days earlier, the US car company led by Elon Musk announced one of its worst quarters ever.

BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle maker (membership), though its brand isn’t widely recognized outside of China. It started out as a battery maker about 25 years ago and transitioned into the car business a little more than a decade ago, making both conventional fossil fuel-powered cars and “new energy vehicles.” The success of its first mass-produced hybrid caught the attention of legendary US investor Warren Buffett, who in 2008 bought a 10% stake in BYD for $230 million. That investment seems to be really paying off right now.

There is increased demand for electric vehicles in China, BYD says, and it expects continued growth. The company’s profits rose to about 750 million yuan ($111 million) in the first quarter, compared to 102 million yuan a year ago. BYD sold 73,172 new energy vehicles (pdf) in the quarter, up 147% from the same period a year ago.  Including conventional fuel cars, it sold 117,578 vehicles in the quarter, up 5% from last year. The company is now selling more electric vehicles than conventional cars.

“New energy vehicles are expected to continue to sell well in the second quarter, and new energy vehicle sales and revenues continue to maintain strong growth,” the company’s latest stock exchange filing reports. According to Reuters, BYD expects to sell 655,000 cars in 2019, and will account for a substantial portion of the 1.6 million electric vehicle total that China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts will be sold this year.

In stark contrast to this positive news for BYD, its US rival Tesla lost nearly $700 million in the first quarter. It attributed over $120 million in losses to a higher return rate than expected after it raised prices for the Model S and Model X. In its quarterly earnings call, Tesla chief financial officer Zachary Kirkhorn described the first quarter as “one of the most complicated… in the history of the company.”

Beyond its faltering quarterly profits, Tesla also had some bad news in China to contend with recently. Last week, a video that circulated widely on Chinese social media showed a parked Tesla Model S abruptly caching fire in Shanghai, where the company plans to build its first overseas factory. Earlier in the month, a parked Tesla in the US also caught fire.

The two electric vehicle makers do have something in common, however. Tesla and BYD both plan to expand into each other’s markets. China is the world’s largest car market, and the US comes second.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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