AuthorTopic: What a President Should Sound Like  (Read 1022 times)

Offline Eddie

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What a President Should Sound Like
« on: December 26, 2015, 11:20:26 AM »
Not every smart, successful man alive today is an idiot. The problem is that smart people stay the hell out of politics.

In this little video, Gerald Celente lays out the whole story....economics, currencies, stocks, bonds, carry trade, commodities, politics, and war. Totally nails it.

It isn't rocket science. The people who say that they are our leaders? They're just a bunch of self-interested, lying, corporate whores. We need a Gerald Celente, not a Donald Trump.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/tBU01akf688&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/tBU01akf688&fs=1</a>
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Offline roamer

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2015, 12:11:07 PM »
Decent rant, watched up to his position on gold.  Well see if he is on the mark about this upcoming slide into recession.  I agree that if we had severe depression wwiii isn't out of the question.  I hope though he is wrong and overeactionary.

Offline roamer

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2015, 12:15:49 PM »
I'd not want a president to sound like that.  He is a trend observer and surfer, makes nice soundbytes but not short of deeper principles kind of like Trump in that regard.  As reality gets messier people will look for simpler narratives though and so it makes such candidates more likely.

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2015, 01:06:59 PM »
It doesn't matter what a POTUS sounds like.  He could sound like FDR or JFK or William Jennings Bryan or Winston Churchill or Adolf Hitler.  Whatever he sounds like, the result will be the same, the end of Industrial Civilization.  Besides that, he would have no more power against the International Banking Cartel than Alex Tsipras had, at least until the monetary system collapses at which point things will be so chaotic the country will break apart anyhow and there won't be a POTUS.

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Offline roamer

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2015, 01:49:15 PM »
RE, The collapse of industrial society and the monetary system  is hardly a foregone conclusion.

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2015, 04:20:24 PM »
RE, The collapse of industrial society and the monetary system  is hardly a foregone conclusion.

I hope to live long enough to collect on the "I told you so" bet on this side of the Great Beyond.  If not, I will be waiting to collect on it when you too cross the Great Divide and join me at the Council Fire of the Diners.  :icon_sunny:

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Offline K-Dog

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2015, 06:41:05 PM »
Quote
RE, The collapse of industrial society and the monetary system is hardly a foregone conclusion.

It is only matter of time and can you as a Diner disconnect from collapse fast enough or will you collapse with the rest!  That this article is ancient history by being an entire year old is irrelevant.  TPTB will always try and prolong a glut if they can so they can get maximum profit from it.  Short term manipulations are possible.  This I suspect results in a slingshot effect when the advance of time relentlessly settles accounts and the economy craps its burgeoning stinky load.


The Oil Glut And An Inevtiable Oil Price Rebound


By James Hamilton
Posted on Mon, 01 December 2014 22:46 | 1

The world is awash in oil, I’m hearing. The problem is, it’s fairly expensive oil.

Take for example Canada. The country that has managed to increase its production of oil by a million barrels a day over the last decade. But almost all of that increase has come from oil sands. If you consider only conventional crude oil, Canadian production today would be a third of a million barrels a day lower than at its peak in 1973.


Canadian production of crude oil, 1947-2013, in mb/d. Blue: Conventional crude plus lease condensate. Orange: oil sands. Data source:Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Even without counting environmental costs, that stuff’s not cheap. It was profitable when West Texas Intermediate was over $90. But last week WTI closed at $66. Here are some of the estimates from the Wall Street Journal:

The break-even price for new oil-sands surface mines is among the most expensive in the world, at around $85 a barrel, according to Bank of Nova Scotia. Operating costs at existing mines are less than half that amount. But the break-even point for so-called in situ projects, in which bitumen is heated and pumped up to the surface, range between $40 a barrel and $80 a barrel. Such projects represent the majority of future growth.

Related: IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand

Or consider the United States, where production has grown 2 mb/d since 2004. More than 3 mb/d of that growth has come from fracking of oil trapped in tight geologic formations. Without tight oil, U.S. production would be down more than a million barrels a day over the last ten years and down 5-1/2 mb/d from its peak in 1970.


U.S. field production of crude oil, by source, 1860-2013, in millions of barrels per day. Source: Hamilton (2014).

Estimates again vary, but prices this low have to severely inhibit new investment in U.S. tight oil. Without continuing new drilling, U.S tight oil production would quickly fall. And the economics of deep ocean drilling, which has also been important in supporting production in the U.S. and around the world, have become even more difficult at today’s low prices.


Source: Business Insider.

Why am I talking about the costs for Canadian and U.S. oil producers? Because if it had not been for the success of Canada and the United States, world production of crude oil would be down overall over the last decade.


World field production of crude oil and lease condensate, 1980-2013, in millions of barrels per day. Data source: EIA.

Granted, some of the stagnation in global output has been due to geopolitical disruptions, Libya being the most important example. And Libyan production rebounded significantly this fall, contributing to the current excess supply.



But Libya remains a very unstable place. It does not take much imagination to see the recent gains there being reversed again over the next few months. Nor does one have to be an excessive worrier to be concerned about the possibility of geopolitical turbulence in places like Nigeria and Iraq taking out more of their production, which between them accounted for 5.4 mb/d of last year’s world oil supply.

So here’s the basic picture. The current surplus of oil was brought about primarily by the success of unconventional oil production in North America, most new investments in which are not sustainable at current prices. Without that production, the price of oil could not remain at current levels. It’s just a matter of how long it takes for the high-cost North American producers to cut back in response to current incentives. And when they do, the price has to go back up.

Here’s my advice to anybody who’s contemplating selling $85 oil at $66 a barrel– don’t do it. If you can wait a few years, that $85 oil will be worth more than it costs to produce. But selling it at a loss in the current market is a fool’s game.

By James Hamilton

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-Glut-And-An-Inevtiable-Oil-Price-Rebound.html
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Oil Final Liquidation Sale: Going Out of Bizness! Everything Must Go!
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2015, 07:13:31 PM »
Here’s my advice to anybody who’s contemplating selling $85 oil at $66 a barrel– don’t do it. If you can wait a few years, that $85 oil will be worth more than it costs to produce. But selling it at a loss in the current market is a fool’s game.

Meanwhile, where do you STORE the Oil you bought at $85/bbl?  If you can find storage while you wait for the price to come back up, how much is the monthly storage fee?

While you wait for the price to come back up, what happens to the Konsumers of Oil who have lost their jobs and had their McMansions Foreclosed on?  Are they going to jump back in and buy the Oil when it finally goes back up to $85 after 90% of the wells are shut in and the supply is restricted down?  Not very likely.  If they are not buying at $35/bbl, it is highly unlikely they will buy at $85/bbl.

There is a REASON the Saudis are selling so low.  It's a GOING OUT OF BIZNESS SALE!  EVERYTHING MUST GO!  90% OFF!

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Offline monsta666

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2015, 04:04:37 AM »
There are various reasons why oil producers would sell at these low prices as opposed to holding onto inventory in the hopes future prices are higher and therefore more profitable. For OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia the increased production comes primarily to maintain/increase market share as they do not want to be the ones to cut production so higher prices would be maintained. Their increased production also has the effect of hindering growth in shale oil production which has been the main generator in increased global oil production since around 2010. If shale oil production declines through low prices then Saudi's market share will increase and by extension there will be more dependency on OPEC oil. Secondary reasons for increasing oil production would be to increase governmental revenues to maintain finances (at the expense of future financial health) however I feel this balancing of the books is not so critical for the larger OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia although this could be more of an issue for smaller less influential members such as Iran, Angola or Nigeria.

Shale oil producers will continue to sell their oil even if it is at a loss to maintain some cash-flow that is needed to pay ongoing costs such as debts or other obligations like maintaining land leases that they paid hand and foot for. This has to effect of continuing this worldwide glut but to stop production means the companies would go out of business sooner as they would have even less revenues to pay off their debts. On this front there is also the hope that when prices do rise then the market can consolidate so any of the survivors still around will be able to have greater control over the overall market thus placing them in a stronger position should another glut occur 10 years down the line. In the end this is just seen as another cycle in the oil industry and not something that is more terminal. It is generally assumed the consumer will pay whatever price the market will yield to fulfil their needs which is a stumbling block for business as usual type scenarios.

Offline K-Dog

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Re: What a President Should Sound Like
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2015, 03:19:29 PM »
If I were King of the FSoA at these prices I'd be filling up the strategic oil reserve and driving prices up.  But hell this is America so party on.  An election year is right around the corner as it always is in America so we bumble on under the faux and irrelevant distractions of partisan plumage.  The economy prospers under carnival color Indian Summer gas prices though it now be full darkness of winter.  To get the votes lever pullers feint that they are responsible for good times, and in the winter gloom bacchanal rites are calibrated.



Do you fear the morn will bring choleric throbbing heads when the good times go and the wine of Bacchus is consumed and exhausted or are you among the mad who think the good times must always be.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

 

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