Official Death of Retail Thread: Life Without Walmart

[RE]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/11/07/kmart-sears-store-closings-96-stores-set-shutter-february-2020/2521653001/

Sears and Kmart store closings: 51 Sears, 45 Kmart locations to shutter. See the list
Kelly Tyko
Nathan Bomey
USA TODAY

Days after revealing sparse Black Friday ads, the company that owns Sears and Kmart announced plans to close 96 additional stores.

Transformco, which acquired the retailers out of bankruptcy, is set to shutter 51 Sears stores and 45 Kmart locations in February.

The liquidation or going-out-of-business sales will begin Dec. 2 after the Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales. Previously announced closing stores will not participate in the holiday sale.

Sears and Kmart have closed more than 3,500 stores and cut about 250,000 jobs in the past 15 years.

After this new round of closings and previously announced closings, the company will have 182 stores.

The new closings do not affect the company's recently acquired Sears Hometown stores, which specialize in home appliances, equipment and tools.

Store closings list:These retailers are closing locations in 2019 and early 2020

Sears, Kmart to close a third of stores:96 locations closing, $250M in financing landed
Sears closings

Arkansas

    North Little Rock Sears: 3930 McCain Blvd.

Arizona

    Prescott Sears: 3400 Gateway Blvd.

California

    Buena Park Sears: 8150 La Palma Ave.
    Chula Vista Sears: 565 Broadway
    Fresno Sears: 3636 N Blackstone Ave.
    Los Angeles Sears: 3755 Santa Rosalia Drive
    Montclair Sears: 5080 Montclair Plz Lane
    Moreno Valley Sears: 22550 Town Circle
    N Hollywood Sears: 12121 Victory Blvd.
    Palm Desert Sears: 72-880 Hwy 111
    Riverside Sears: 5261 Arlington Ave.
    San Bernadino Sears: 100 Inland Ctr
    San Bruno Sears: 1178 El Camino Real
    San Jose Sears: 2180 Tully Road
    Santa Maria Sears: 200 Town Ctr E
    Temecula Sears: 40710 Winchester Road
    Tracy Sears: 3350 Naglee Road
    Ventura Sears: 3295 E Main St.
    Victorville Sears: 14420 Bear Valley Road
    Visalia Sears: 3501 S Mooney Blvd.
    West Covina Sears: 1209 Plaza Drive

Florida

    Fort Myers Sears: 4125 Cleveland Ave.
    Hialeah Sears: 1625 W 49th St.
    Miami Sears: 20701 SW 112th Ave.

Georgia

    Douglasville Sears: 6580 Douglas Blvd.

Illinois

    Peoria Sears: 2200 W War Memorial Drive
    West Dundee Sears: 5000 Spring Hill Mall

Maryland

    Cumberland Sears: 1262 Vocke Road

Massachusetts

    Auburn Sears: 385 Southbridge St.
    Leominster Sears: 100 Commercial Road

Michigan

    Lansing Sears: 3131 E Michigan Ave.

Missouri

    Joplin Sears: 101 N Rangeline Road

Nevada

    Las Vegas Sears: 4000 Meadow Lane

New Hampshire

    Nashua Sears: 310 Daniel Webster Highway
    Concord Sears: 270 Loudon Road

New Mexico

    Farmington Sears: 4601 E Main St.

New York

    Buffalo Sears: S 3701 McKinley Parkway

North Carolina

    Greenville Sears: 3600 South Memorial Drive

Pennsylvania

    Whitehall Sears: 1259 Whitehall Mall
    North Wales Sears: 600 Montgomery Mall

Puerto Rico

    FajaRoado Sears: State Road 3
    Guayama Sears: Gpo Box 1050
    Ponce Sears: Pob 7426 Sears Plaza Del Caribe 2050 Road 2 Ponce By Pass Ste 135

Texas

    San Antonio Sears: 2310 SW Military Drive

Vermont

    South Burlington Sears: 155 Dorset St.

Virginia

    Richmond Sears: 11500 Midlothian Turnpike
    Manassas Sears: 8200 Sudley Road
    Fredericksburg Sears: 100 Spotsylvania Mall
    Winchester Sears: 1850 Apple Blossom Drive

Washington

    Spokane Sears: 14720 E Indiana Ave.
    Lacey Sears: 651 Sleater Kinney Road SE

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Kmart closings

Arizona

    Lake Havasu City Kmart: 1870 McCulloch Blvd.

California

    Atascadero Kmart: 3980 El Camino Real
    Bishop Kmart: 1200 N Main St.
    Chico Kmart: 2155 Pillsbury Road
    Concord Kmart: 5100 Clayton Road
    Hollister Kmart: 491 Tres Pinos Road
    Petaluma Kmart: 261 N Mc Dowell Blvd.
    Riverside Kmart: 7840 Limonite Ave.
    Santa Paula Kmart: 895 Faulkner Road
    Scotts Valley Kmart: 270 Mt Hermon Road

Delaware

    Rehoboth Beach Kmart: 19563 Coastal Highway

Florida

    Bradenton Kmart: 7350 Manatee Ave. West
    Hollywood Kmart: 3800 Oakwood Blvd.
    Lantana Kmart: 1201 S Dixie Highway

Iowa

    Algona Kmart: 1501 Hwy 169 N
    Charles City Kmart: 1405 S Grand

Maryland

    Frederick Kmart: 1003 W Patrick St.
    Hagerstown Kmart: 1713 Massey Blvd.
    Hyattsville Kmart: 6411 Riggs Road

Massachusetts

    Acton Kmart: 252 Main St.
    Billerica Kmart: 484 Boston Road

Michigan

    Waterford Kmart: 5100 Dixie Highway

New Hampshire

    Hooksett Kmart: 1267 Hooksett Road
    Salem Kmart: 161 S Broadway

New Jersey

    West Orange Kmart: 235 Prospect Ave

New York

    Bohemia Kmart: 5151 Sunrise Highway
    Sidney Kmart: 171 Delaware Ave.

North Dakota

    Bismarck Kmart: 2625 State St.

Ohio

    Marietta Kmart: 502 Pike St.
    North Canton Kmart: 1447 N Main St.
    Tallmadge Kmart: 555 South Ave.

Oregon

    The Dalles Kmart: 2640 West 6th St.

Pennsylvania

    Berwick Kmart: 1520 W Front St.
    Ephrata Kmart: 1127 S State St.
    Lebanon Kmart: 1745 Quentin
    Wilkes Barre Kmart: 910 Wilkes Barre Twp Blvd.
    Williamsport Kmart: 1915 E Third St.

Puerto Rico

    Arecibo Kmart: 1400 Ave. Miramar
    Bayamon Kmart: Plaza Rio Hondo
    FajaRoado Kmart: Eastern Shopping Ctr S.R. 3
    Juana Diaz Kmart: Road #149 And #584 Plaza Juana Diaz
    Vega Alta Kmart: Centro Gran Caribe Road #2 Plaza Caribe Mall

Wisconsin

    Kenosha Kmart: 4100 52nd St.

Wyoming

    Charleston Kmart: 6531 McCorkle Ave. SE
    Jackson Kmart: 510 US Highway 89

Follow USA TODAY reporter Kelly Tyko on Twitter: @KellyTyko

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[azozeo]

There are now about a dozen Instagram accounts — some of which are making real money — devoted to the grocery store’s latest products.

Dezeray Floyd had been working at Trader Joe’s for a few years when she first had the idea, but she wasn’t sure if she was allowed to actually do it. To start an Instagram account devoted to the corporation that paid her wages — without permission from its legal department — seemed risky. But why, exactly? She wasn’t bashing the company. Quite the opposite: She was praising its products, items she would have bought anyway as a paying customer. She just wanted to share them with everyone else.

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/11/6/20919173/trader-joes-list-trader-joes-instagram

Recently, in my little town, our two big grocery stores have gone full tilt on the rehab meme to emulate Trader Joe's.

Californication is sweeping the desert & these 2 good ol' boys (Kroger & Albertsons) aren't going to miss out on the fun.

They can't compete with Big Blue, Super Duper Mega Big box Wally world so the rush to have the best eye candy is the new wave around these parts.

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[azozeo]

Retail rents in Manhattan have fallen again, this time before the holiday season, an ominous sign that consumer health is deteriorating. Maybe retail spending this holiday season will be somewhat disappointing; after all, President Trump was seen on Twitter on Monday asking his 66.5 million followers to spend more of their money as the stock market rose to new highs. Any time the government asks its citizens to spend money, it usually means trouble ahead.

Average asking rents across Upper Fifth Avenue, especially between 42nd and 49th streets, saw one of the steepest drops in retail rents in Q3, falling 25% YoY, reported Bloomberg, citing a new report from Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

As shown below, Lower Fifth, Broadway, Madison Avenue, SoHo, and Herald Square retail rents over the same period were in free fall. This is a reflection of the weakening consumer base ahead of the holiday season. There were several outliers, Upper Fifth and Times Square retail rents over the same period marginally declined. Meanwhile, the Meatpacking district saw rents jump 7.3% in Q3 YoY.


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/manhattans-retail-industry-imploding-holiday-season

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[RE]

How sad.    The end of an Era.

RE

https://news.yahoo.com/black-friday-becoming-shadow-former-self-us-165854513.html

'Black Friday' becoming a shadow of its former self in US
[AFP]
Christophe VOGT, John BIERS
,AFP•November 29, 2019

New York (AFP) - The US holiday shopping season officially opened with a deluge of "Black Friday" promotions but the frenzied crowds of the past have thinned out with the rise of e-commerce.

Companies in the retail, entertainment and tourism industries once again tried to entice shoppers after Thanksgiving with a bevy of offers on a day synonymous with American consumer culture and notorious "doorbuster" sales that start at the crack of dawn.

But US consumers aren't buying Black Friday the way they once did.

Only 36 percent of US consumers plan to shop this year on Black Friday, down one percent from last year and a decline of 23 percent from 2015, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey.

"Just a few years ago, Black Friday had the aura of a FOMO (fear of missing out) event," PWC said. "Now it seems more symbolic than significant in the pantheon of retail holidays."

Black Friday will be followed in three days by "Cyber Monday," a second highpoint of spending early in the season.

Friday's sales have prompted copycat versions throughout Europe, an effort that has generated no small amount of friction.

This year's events prompted protest in parts of France, Germany and the Netherlands that included environmentalist rallies outside Amazon distribution centers and human chains blocking malls.

There has been little sign of that sort of subversiveness in the United States. Rather, the bigger emerging challenge for Black Friday has been shifting consumer patterns.

The PWC survey said that for the first time in 2019 more consumers (54 percent) said they'll do more of their shopping online than in stores.

- Higher sales expected -

Economists and retail industry insiders are broadly confident about the outlook for the 2019 season, owing to a strong labor market.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of US economic growth and has stayed strong throughout 2019 even as manufacturing has stagnated and business investment has been lackluster.

"Consumers are in good financial shape and willing to spend a little more on gifts for the special people in their lives this holiday season," said Matthew Shay, Chief Executive of the National Retail Federation.

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[Surly1]

How sad.    The end of an Era.

RE

https://news.yahoo.com/black-friday-becoming-shadow-former-self-us-165854513.html

'Black Friday' becoming a shadow of its former self in US
[AFP]
Christophe VOGT, John BIERS
,AFP•November 29, 2019

New York (AFP) - The US holiday shopping season officially opened with a deluge of "Black Friday" promotions but the frenzied crowds of the past have thinned out with the rise of e-commerce.

Companies in the retail, entertainment and tourism industries once again tried to entice shoppers after Thanksgiving with a bevy of offers on a day synonymous with American consumer culture and notorious "doorbuster" sales that start at the crack of dawn.

But US consumers aren't buying Black Friday the way they once did.

Only 36 percent of US consumers plan to shop this year on Black Friday, down one percent from last year and a decline of 23 percent from 2015, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey.

"Just a few years ago, Black Friday had the aura of a FOMO (fear of missing out) event," PWC said. "Now it seems more symbolic than significant in the pantheon of retail holidays."

Black Friday will be followed in three days by "Cyber Monday," a second highpoint of spending early in the season.

Friday's sales have prompted copycat versions throughout Europe, an effort that has generated no small amount of friction.

This year's events prompted protest in parts of France, Germany and the Netherlands that included environmentalist rallies outside Amazon distribution centers and human chains blocking malls.

There has been little sign of that sort of subversiveness in the United States. Rather, the bigger emerging challenge for Black Friday has been shifting consumer patterns.

The PWC survey said that for the first time in 2019 more consumers (54 percent) said they'll do more of their shopping online than in stores.

The 2019 Black Friday Video Hall of Shame
https://www.theorganicprepper.com/2019-black-friday-video-shame/

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/L937ROnHfbo" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/L937ROnHfbo</a>

As the article has it, you might consider how these same folks would behave if they were hungry.

One crowd was light-hearted, almost festive. Until the doors opened. And then it was GAME. ON.

Some of the other videos on this page reveal why a box store iOS the last place you want to be on Black Friday, when ,many people take their mental illness and sense of grievance out for a walk. As the article has it, "Nothing says “Oh Holy Night” like beating the crap out of your fellow man for cheap Christmas tree ornaments…"

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[azozeo]

Q: How much extra waste is created during the winter holiday season?
A: Americans throw away 25% more trash during the Thanksgiving to New Year's holiday period than any other time of year. The extra waste amounts to 25 million tons of garbage, or about 1 million extra tons per week!

If every family reused just two feet of holiday ribbon, the 38,000 miles of ribbon saved could tie a bow around the entire planet. If every American family wrapped just 3 presents in re-used materials, it would save enough paper to cover 45,000 football fields. The 2.65 billion Christmas cards sold each year in the U.S. could fill a football field 10 stories high. If we each sent one card less, we’d save 50,000 cubic yards of paper.

Statistics found at www.use-less-stuff.com. Visit this website and use the checklist to reduce your waste this holiday season.


https://lbre.stanford.edu/pssistanford-recycling/frequently-asked-questions/frequently-asked-questions-holiday-waste-prevention

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[RE]

A SLOW painful death, like mine.

RE

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312371-death-of-sears

The Death Of Sears
Dec. 13, 2019 11:34 AM ET|

The Sears and Kmart banners are continuing to disappear, with only 182 stores scheduled to remain in early 2020.

Sears and Kmart may only exist as online stores in the future.

The apparent continuing retail losses at TransformCo reduce the need for Sears Holdings' NOLs.

Sears's underfunded pension plan is certainly not a source of value, as it could still be paying benefits (albeit diminishing) until past 2060.

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The Sears/Kmart banners are fading away as more stores close. This process is likely to continue until there are no physical Sears/Kmart department stores left. Sears Holdings (OTCPK:SHLDQ) does not own the stores anymore, but is suffering in its own way with legal expenses eating away at the remains of the estate after continuing court battles.

It remains quite unlikely that shareholders will receive anything. Creditors may be able to salvage more if there is a settlement (or through litigation). With TransformCo apparently racking up significant losses of its own, the NOLs may not even be needed by Eddie Lampert though.
The Sears Brand

The Sears (and Kmart) banners are in danger of fading away as large amounts of store closures continue. Under Transform Holdco, the store footprint has gone from around 425 Sears/Kmart stores in February 2019 to a projected 182 Sears/Kmart stores in February 2020.

I've argued before that a smaller store base would continue to be significantly unprofitable due to constant declines in traffic counteracting savings from cost cutting. Eventually even the top stores would end up with negative four-wall EBITDA given the trends in Sears/Kmart.

It is challenging for stronger department stores to achieve flat to positive comparable store sales growth even with significant investment in capex. The lack of investment in Sears/Kmart makes its eventual extinction as physical department stores virtually inevitable.

There is the possibility that Sears/Kmart could remain as internet-only companies though, like Bon-Ton (other than one physical Carson's store) after its bankruptcy filing.

Given the apparent continued losses with TransformCo, I'm not sure how much Eddie Lampert will need the NOLs generated by Sears Holdings before anyway. TransformCo seems to be generating its own substantial NOLs, so if there is a major dispute over the NOLs from Sears Holdings, it may be easier to walk away.
Pension Value

The idea that Sears's pension assets are a source of value is not supported by evidence. The pension plans are still significantly underfunded (by an estimated $1.4 billion at the beginning of the year) and were a continual drain on Sears's cash flow before.

There have been assertions that since the average age of a Sears retiree is high (around 80), the pension plans will not need to pay benefits for much longer as the average life expectancy of an 80 year old is around nine years.

However, that ignores the fact that there are still Sears and Kmart employees that are reaching retirement age and are either getting lump-sum payouts or a monthly pension. Kmart froze its pension plan in 1996 and Sears froze its plan at the end of 2005. That would still leave a potentially long stream of future retirees though.

For example, a Sears worker born in 1970 may have joined the company in 1990 and accumulated close to 15 years of service time by 2005 (Sears froze benefit accruals for under 40s in 2004). This worker would not turn 65 until 2035 though. If that worker chose monthly benefits and then lived until 80, Sears could be paying benefits until 2050 (plus there may be survivor benefits).

The following graph shows how a defined benefits plan frozen in 2013 can take a long time to see its liabilities decrease. In this example from Towers Watson, it takes over 20 years after the plan was frozen for the liabilities to decrease by 50%, and over 40 years to decrease to a relatively negligible amount (under 10% of the original liabilities). There also could still be a trickle of benefit payments 50 to 60 years after the plan is frozen.

It is now around 23 years since Kmart froze its plan, and around 14 years since Sears froze its plan.

Source

The long time it takes for pension liabilities to decrease with a frozen plan can also be seen in Sears's results. Both the Sears and Kmart pension plans were frozen by the end of 2005 (much earlier for Kmart as noted before). At that time, Sears's pension plan obligations (for Sears and Kmart, not including Sears Canada) were estimated at $6.134 billion. At the end of 2017, this declined to $4.003 billion, a decrease of $2.131 billion.
Source: Sears Holdings - Annual Reports

However, during that 12 year period, Sears also recorded $2.655 billion in settlements, without which the pension obligations would have actually increased (due to changes in discount rates). Sears also made $3.763 billion in company contributions during this period, and was only able to reduce its pension deficit by around $0.6 billion.

The state of constant underfunding was a major factor in this, as the average return on plan assets was $156 million per year during this time, compared to an average of $395 million per year in benefits paid.

As a simplified example, if Sears's pension assets averaged around a 6% annual return on beginning assets (it actually averaged around 5% from 2006 to 2017) and the benefits paid per year started at $300 million in 2018 and declined by 5% per year, the pension assets would be exhausted by 2041.
   2018    2023    2028    2033    2038    2040
Beginning Assets    $2,528    $1,844    $1,276    $786    $339    $164
Return on Plan Assets    $152    $111    $77    $47    $20    $10
Benefits Paid    $300    $232    $180    $139    $108    $97
Ending Assets    $2,380    $1,722    $1,173    $694    $251    $77

This is around 36 years after Sears froze its pension plan and 45 years after Kmart froze its pension plan.
Conclusion

The Sears and Kmart banners are coming close to disappearing from physical department stores as losses continue to add up under TransformCo. The continuing court battles are also draining Sears Holdings' remaining resources. Creditors may be able to achieve something through litigation (or a settlement in exchange for dropping litigation). The NOLs are less likely to be a key part of any settlement though, as TransformCo's losses are reducing the need for the NOLs from Sears Holdings. I would also add that the idea that Sears's pension is worth anything is not correct. The pension plan could be paying out something (albeit diminishing amounts) for another 40 years. Sears Holdings and Eddie Lampert are content with offloading the pension to PBGC.

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