AuthorTopic: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread  (Read 30980 times)

Offline RE

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #60 on: November 12, 2012, 11:17:27 PM »

it's beyond me why RE didn't disabuse you of this notion when he had the chance.

What chance was that?

Trying to disabuse Elvis of the Notion that if we scrap all the Carz this will resolve most of the Waste Problem is like trying to disabuse Watson of the Notion that Jesus Christ is the Son of God.  You got NO CHANCE of this, EVER.  LOL.

In any event, Elvis doesn't stop in to Dine at Ted Nugent's house these days, and I'm not gonna whack on him hard over on EU, he just deletes my posts if I do that. LOL.

Carz are a BIG PROBLEM, no doubt there, but they are only part of a much larger problem of energy dependency.  Without the Carz, or more accurately the whole Transportation and Construction equipment run on the ICE, the rest of the energy infrastructure goes right down with them.

Elvis has a visceral HATRED of the Automobile, and he heaps his critique of industrial culture on this particular invention most of all, but the fact is the Railroadz, Electric Grid, Industrial Looms etc would have led to the same result, perhaps a tad bit slower but not by much.

RE
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Offline reanteben

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #61 on: November 13, 2012, 12:33:27 AM »

it's beyond me why RE didn't disabuse you of this notion when he had the chance.

What chance was that?

Trying to disabuse Elvis of the Notion that if we scrap all the Carz this will resolve most of the Waste Problem is like trying to disabuse Watson of the Notion that Jesus Christ is the Son of God.  You got NO CHANCE of this, EVER.  LOL.

In any event, Elvis doesn't stop in to Dine at Ted Nugent's house these days, and I'm not gonna whack on him hard over on EU, he just deletes my posts if I do that. LOL.

Carz are a BIG PROBLEM, no doubt there, but they are only part of a much larger problem of energy dependency.  Without the Carz, or more accurately the whole Transportation and Construction equipment run on the ICE, the rest of the energy infrastructure goes right down with them.

Elvis has a visceral HATRED of the Automobile, and he heaps his critique of industrial culture on this particular invention most of all, but the fact is the Railroadz, Electric Grid, Industrial Looms etc would have led to the same result, perhaps a tad bit slower but not by much.

RE

sorry for not being more clear, RE. I was wondering why you didn't disabuse monsta (as quoted) of the notion that SFV had fallen into some econ 101 trap in suggesting that cutting the waste was preferable. it baffles me how some (including you) don't see the dieoff implicit in his writings.  (see economist comment)

Offline RE

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #62 on: November 13, 2012, 01:01:57 AM »
sorry for not being more clear, RE. I was wondering why you didn't disabuse monsta (as quoted) of the notion that SFV had fallen into some econ 101 trap in suggesting that cutting the waste was preferable. it baffles me how some (including you) don't see the dieoff implicit in his writings.  (see economist comment)

Oh, I do see the IMPLICIT dieoff in what Elvis writes, the issue with him is much like that with Gail on OFW, it is getting either of them to make it EXPLICIT in their articles.  In Gail's case, if you read closely through the Commentary on her own Blog, you can tell Gail is Full Doom at LEAST, and possibly Uber Doom.  In Elvis' case though, even inside the commentary you get the feeling he thinks we could resolve our problems by taking a Time Trip back into a Monet Painting.  He absolutely REVERES the early 1700s, he has made the case in fact that people actually dressed better in this period based on the stuff in paintings that the Founding Fathers and other Aristocrats wore during the period.

Far as Monsta is concerned, I think he misread Elvis some, but I didn't have time to make a response to that post.  I can't respond to everything, just the management and keeping the Blog fresh is a trial for me these days.

RE
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Offline reanteben

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #63 on: November 13, 2012, 09:39:34 AM »
sorry for not being more clear, RE. I was wondering why you didn't disabuse monsta (as quoted) of the notion that SFV had fallen into some econ 101 trap in suggesting that cutting the waste was preferable. it baffles me how some (including you) don't see the dieoff implicit in his writings.  (see economist comment)

Oh, I do see the IMPLICIT dieoff in what Elvis writes, the issue with him is much like that with Gail on OFW, it is getting either of them to make it EXPLICIT in their articles.  In Gail's case, if you read closely through the Commentary on her own Blog, you can tell Gail is Full Doom at LEAST, and possibly Uber Doom.  In Elvis' case though, even inside the commentary you get the feeling he thinks we could resolve our problems by taking a Time Trip back into a Monet Painting.  He absolutely REVERES the early 1700s, he has made the case in fact that people actually dressed better in this period based on the stuff in paintings that the Founding Fathers and other Aristocrats wore during the period.

Far as Monsta is concerned, I think he misread Elvis some, but I didn't have time to make a response to that post.  I can't respond to everything, just the management and keeping the Blog fresh is a trial for me these days.

RE

morning all! 

fair enough regarding monsta. (i know you're busy, thanks again for everything.) as mr. conflict, I believe it's important to not let untruths
slide. LG and IMN were always great about that at TAE, and obviously much more talented at it, and gallant, than myself. what was I it the
mayans said - life is 90pc maintenance? wish people would call me out on my inconsistencies more often. vigilance is the word.

regarding steve, I think we need to go back to the mid-17th century, before jethro tull, eli whitney, and before ireland had potatoes. I think of him as a contemporary gerrard winstanley, and indeed he has self-identified with pre-marxist ideals in the past.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diggers

steve's an agrarian rewilder: culture change broken chains.

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2010/10/24/culture-change-broken-chains/

he's an agrarian/permacultural anarcho-communist, which is decentralized, settled ag (much like potlatch, in fact), and you're an anarcho-primitivist, which is just anarcho-communism without the settled ag. each of these paradigms will be much more conducive to  fourth density consciousness than this one. it is no coincidence of course that steve's paradigm is the doomstead paradigm.

although I am an uber doomer (it is writ), I believe, barring nuclear war,  that for a time, decades, there will be both agrarian pockets and nomadic tribes. I am unconvinced by your argument (perhaps you might expand upon it) that there will not be enough resources for small scale ag in the intermediary period between collapse and reintegration with the fifth density (extinction).


Offline monsta666

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #64 on: November 13, 2012, 01:11:26 PM »
sorry for not being more clear, RE. I was wondering why you didn't disabuse monsta (as quoted) of the notion that SFV had fallen into some econ 101 trap in suggesting that cutting the waste was preferable. it baffles me how some (including you) don't see the dieoff implicit in his writings.  (see economist comment)

I can happily concede I misunderstood what Elvis says. I do not follow his blog as closely as others so there is a good chance he does not think the way I described in my earlier post. However I think the points I raised are still relevant because this view of cutting waste is a fairly prevalent view. Perhaps Elvis does not endorse this view but many others do. I wanted to highlight the traps to this way of thinking and explain that cutting waste can actually cause the actual economy to collapse much less safe it. It should be clear that our current economic and monetary are not fit for purpose in a contracting real physical economy and in my eyes it is likely to lead some kind of tipping point down the line. I won't completely dismiss the notion I could be wrong and we get some kind of slow decline but I feel a fast collapse is more likely once the ball starts rolling. The coyote is still walking on air at this moment and has not bothered to look down... Yet.

Offline reanteben

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #65 on: November 13, 2012, 02:30:46 PM »
sorry for not being more clear, RE. I was wondering why you didn't disabuse monsta (as quoted) of the notion that SFV had fallen into some econ 101 trap in suggesting that cutting the waste was preferable. it baffles me how some (including you) don't see the dieoff implicit in his writings.  (see economist comment)

I can happily concede I misunderstood what Elvis says. I do not follow his blog as closely as others so there is a good chance he does not think the way I described in my earlier post. However I think the points I raised are still relevant because this view of cutting waste is a fairly prevalent view. Perhaps Elvis does not endorse this view but many others do. I wanted to highlight the traps to this way of thinking and explain that cutting waste can actually cause the actual economy to collapse much less safe it. It should be clear that our current economic and monetary are not fit for purpose in a contracting real physical economy and in my eyes it is likely to lead some
kind of tipping point down the line. I won't completely dismiss the notion I could be wrong and we get some kind of slow decline but I feel a fast collapse is more likely once the ball starts rolling. The coyote is still walking on air at this moment and has not bothered to look down... Yet.


hey monsta. first you say you're happy to concede that you misunderstood and then you backtrack by characterizing it as a "good chance" that sfv hasn't made this mistake. "good chance" has nothing to do with it. to suggest he doesn't understand the
consequences of cultural change (end of machine culture) is like saying lionel messi doesn't understand the consequences of a handball.

I think we're in for a fast collapse, too. let us not be deer in the headlights.

Offline monsta666

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #66 on: November 13, 2012, 03:32:08 PM »
I think we're in for a fast collapse, too. let us not be deer in the headlights.

I also believe in a fast collapse, I just do not discount the possiblity that I am wrong and we get a slow decline instead.

Offline RE

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Lights OUT! 30,000 Greeks/mo Go Dark
« Reply #67 on: April 07, 2013, 10:21:53 PM »
Usually this thread is about the massive and sudden power outtages that come from Grid Failures, not this one though.  This one is about the ongoing Economic Blackout occurring in Greece at the astounding rate of 30K customers/mo.

When you consider a "customer" is usually a family and sometimes a whole apartment complex, probably at least 100K people lose juice for the toaster every month.  In a country with a population of 11.3M, at that rate they are all lights out in 9 years or so, though I doubt it takes that long because pretty soon the Greek Goobemint won't be able to buy coal for the power plants, which probably are in worse condition than the one Roamer worked in.

Is this Fast Collapse or Slow Catabolic Collapse?  If your a Greek who can't make toast this morning, it's fast. If you are in Amerika where toast making may go on another 20 years, its slow.  How you perceive the collapse all depends on where you are and when the shitstorm makes it to your neighborhood.

Portuguese Judges just declared Troika Austerity measures Unconstitutional, and now the Portguese are talking about issuing Treasury Notes directly to their workers as salary.  Who would take this Toilet Paper?  Well, the ECB better take it, because they hold a shit load of said Notes already, and if they go Worthless out in the REAL Market, the ECB is insolvent because of leverage.  This is tangential though, what I am trying to point out is that in short order electric customers in Portugal are going No Toast, and not long after that Italians & Spanish will be Toastless also.  You will have to hike the Alps into Switzerland to make toast.

I just don't see a Slow Catabolic Collapse in action here, I see a Snowball rolling down a Hill getting Bigger all the time, and its not going to roll down the hill leaving the rest of the snow up on the mountain.  It's going to start an AVALANCHE at some point here.

Right now here in the FSoA if you haven't yet fallen off the Economic Cliff, it may SEEM to you like a Slow Collapse, a Municipality goes BK here, a few more Air Traffic Controllers get laid off there, maybe the local Sears Outlet closes in your Mall, but you still can buy a new Toaster at Walmart at Low, Low Prices Everyday, and likely to get LOWER as the Chinese battle the Japanese in currency devaluation.  Pretty soon they will be dumping Toasters on the market for $5 a pop.  You think I'm kidding?  Last year before Christmas I bought a couple of Electric Slow Cookers for exactly that price, almost half what a pack of smokes costs up here.

At some point of course the Toaster Makers and Slow Cooker Makers will shut down though, because Globally not enough people will still be getting Electric power to their McHovels to keep the production lines running.  You can only fudge sales and Channel Stuff for so long before it gets obvious nobody is really buying.

I suppose to some people this seems Slow, but just looking back to 2008 when I got my wake up call, it's progressing very rapidly.  In just 5 years we have the Sovereign failures I predicted on Peak Oil in 2008, and both the Euro and Yen,"strong currencies", are teetering on the Brink of Collapse, propped up by financial legerdermain and hanky-panky in EXTREMIS.

On the Social level, Strikes are an every day occurrence in Eurotrashland now, countries aren't able to form "Democratically Elected" Goobermints which can effectively do ANYTHING, Unemployment Stats are Double Digits and you can tell they are on the verge of a Political EXPLOSION.

Anyhow, when enough people who USED to be able to Make Toast can't make it anymore except over a Campfire if they can scrounge deadfall or Burn Furniture, the collapse will move to the next level and accelerate.  It's not moving slow now, and it's accelerating.  Some link in some chain will break, and then things will move faster still. I can't say when it will cross the pond from Eurotrashland, but given it took 5 years for them from 2008, I'll give it best case 5 years here.  Elvis gives it 2, that is certainly possible too. Either way, and even a decade in the making, it's still Fast Crash  for an Industrial Society it took 2 centuries to put in place.

RE

30,000 Greek Households Lose Electricity Each Month

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2013 19:08 -0400

Greece


Since the Greek government enacted the remarkable law that property taxes will be enforced via the electricity providers in the beleaguered country, an incredible 30,000 households per month have seen their power supply cut off. Ekathimerini reports that some 700,000 customers have now had their debts restructured (with payment plans) as part of the billing process; but what is perhaps incredible is that while the State has specifically banned 'disconnection' for not paying the property charges, the utility's computer system is unable to distinguish if payment is for electricity or property tax. There are apparently workarounds involving deposits for tax debts but the situation is set to deteriorate further this year due to the increase in electricity rates and expected further reductions in household incomes.

 

Via ekathimerini,


About 1,000 electricity connections are cut every day in Greece as Public Power Corporation customers are increasingly unable to pay their power bills on time, while accumulated debts to the country’s electricity giant stood at more than 1.3 billion euros at the end of 2012. This is not only due to the economic crisis that has eaten into household incomes, but also to the special property tax paid via power bills.

 

PPC data show that some 700,000 customers had had their debts rearranged with new payment plans by the end of last year, up from 400,000 at the end of 2011. The situation is set to deteriorate this year due to the increase in PPC rates and expected further reductions in household incomes.

 

...

 

There is, however, a particular problem with the special property tax. While the Council of State has banned the disconnection of houses for not paying the property charge through the PPC bill, if customers do pay for their electricity, PPC’s software cannot distinguish between payment for the property tax and that for electricity. As a result, the corporation cannot tell whether consumers have paid toward their power bill or just a part of their property tax unless they have paid the full amount.

 

...

 

PPC says that this problem can be overcome by the taxpayers visiting the tax offices, where they can apply to have their property levy paid separately to the tax authority, which involves the payment of a 50-euro deposit. Afterward, any payment delay will only concern the customer and the tax office, and not PPC.
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Offline RE

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Power outages affect thousands in San Diego
« Reply #68 on: September 20, 2015, 08:59:03 PM »
Think this might have something to do with Hoover not being able to pick up the Peak Load?  ::)

RE

http://www.10news.com/news/power-outages-affecting-thousands-in-san-diego-092015


RE
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Offline MKing

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Re: Power outages affect thousands in San Diego
« Reply #69 on: September 21, 2015, 06:19:33 AM »
Think this might have something to do with Hoover not being able to pick up the Peak Load?  ::)

RE

http://www.10news.com/news/power-outages-affecting-thousands-in-san-diego-092015


RE

That isn't the only hickey awaiting California. You should just see the logic behind this one:

http://www.plugincars.com/californias-zev-mandate-ahead-car-buying-consumers-127028.html

which was discussed at a very interesting conference in California earlier in the year. Turns out, 2020 and 2050 initiatives might be mutually exclusive. Gotta love legislation that works that way, just like you gotta love policy planners not grounded in fundamentals of resources and supply and demand. But, it is California, so at least they have the Big One to look forward to.

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #70 on: September 24, 2015, 07:02:51 AM »
I read somewhere last week that as the levels drop in Hoover, the sediment which the dam has trapped earlier starts to "float" off the bottom and gets sucked into the turbine feeds.  Depending on the texture of the material, it scours the turbine blades and causes vibrations at certain speeds, which must be avoided.  The operators are familiar with this problem, one solution being not to have the turbines spin at those speeds.  One operator said Hoover was moving into uncharted territory in this respect.

This might mean the plant is capable of generating say 500 MW but not 473 - 480 MW, which makes it difficult to do load matching.  Since they are bidding in the load-matching market for the right to supply x MW for a minute and y MW the minute after that, it's not hard to imagine a load of mud putting the whole system out of action for a while.
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Offline EndIsNigh

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #71 on: April 06, 2017, 12:08:53 PM »
If humans developed zero point energy without a corresponding development of wisdom insofar as the use of

Offline alan2102

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #72 on: June 16, 2017, 08:41:38 AM »
Far as the 5 year prediction is concerned, that's the Over-Under where its a 50-50
probability.  To get a 90% probability you need to go out further, probably 15-20 years.
OK, OK. So we'll start the countdown in 5 years, and I'll revisit at 5-year
intervals thereafter. Will you still be around?

OK, so it has been ~5 years. Countdown starts NOW.

Offline agelbert

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #73 on: June 16, 2017, 02:56:30 PM »
If humans developed zero point energy without a corresponding development of wisdom insofar as the use of.

You are right. Technofixes, so far, have always eventually failed because the central issue is an ethical one, not a resource availability one, which is merely the symptom of unethical behavior by TPTB. Technofixes have just kicked the resource can down the road.

While we ARE tool makers, and will never escape that propensity to tinker, we also can choose to be ethical about our tools or unethical. If technology is applied ethically (i.e. by ensuring the protection of ALL the species affected that are known to provide a healthy habitat for humans), then technology could be a wise choice. However, if we don't learn to add and subtract with biosphere math, we are doomed.


I'm glad to see you are still alive and kicking, my friend.  :emthup: I have a foot in the grave and another on a banana peel, but I'm still around too.  :icon_sunny:

Check out my forum if you have a chance. I am in the process of posting various videos on a  recent Biological Extinction conference attended by eminent scientists, economists and scholars. They include many hours of no bullshit hard facts, thankfully free of profit over planet polluter propaganda from the fossil fuel industry crooks and liars. There is no fossil fuel pie in the sky at that conference.  :emthup: There are over 15 videos, some as short as 27 minutes, some as long as nearly two hours. The only major gripe I have, and that is with a very small portion of the conference, is push by the Swiss to celebrate all things GMO (for the poor in India and Africa and China  ;)) when the Swiss DO NOT eat GMO foods. So, the Monsanto money has biased the Swiss, unfortunately. :emthdown: But overall, the conference is excellent. One eminent scientist lady (Dr. Lubchenco) describes our situation as a "death of a thousand cuts" global degradation of the biosphere. She calls the oceans the "Wet West" analogous to the "Wild West" term, because the pollution, overfishing and just plain exploiting of everything is at the "anything goes" level.

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« Last Edit: June 16, 2017, 02:59:22 PM by agelbert »
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
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if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

Offline agelbert

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Re: Lights OUT! The Official Blackout Thread
« Reply #74 on: June 16, 2017, 03:09:51 PM »
Think this might have something to do with Hoover not being able to pick up the Peak Load?  ::)

RE

http://www.10news.com/news/power-outages-affecting-thousands-in-san-diego-092015


RE

That isn't the only hickey awaiting California. You should just see the logic behind this one:

http://www.plugincars.com/californias-zev-mandate-ahead-car-buying-consumers-127028.html

which was discussed at a very interesting conference in California earlier in the year. Turns out, 2020 and 2050 initiatives might be mutually exclusive. Gotta love legislation that works that way, just like you gotta love policy planners not grounded in fundamentals of resources and supply and demand. But, it is California, so at least they have the Big One to look forward to.



Says the fossil fueler that lied 24/7 about Renewable Energy "not being able to provide base load power" for YEARS on this forum.

And this yammering about plug-in future problems is laughable. You are a joke, MKING.

Your beloved internal combustion engine is yesterday's inefficient, wasteful and horribly polluting technology.

The future is here, and the fossil fuel industry will NOT be part of it, no matter how much or how often your feverish dreams of fossil fuel pie in the sky (that you engage in 24/7) convince you that it has a future.


http://insideevs.com/compare-plug-ins/



EVERYTHING YOU SAID has been proven FALSE, MKING. No, I don't expect you to admit it. Mendacity and irresponsibility are the hallmarks of all fossil fuel industry TROLLS. You fit that profile perfectly.





« Last Edit: June 16, 2017, 03:13:56 PM by agelbert »
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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