AuthorTopic: Election Errata  (Read 95717 times)

Offline Eddie

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Re: Curse Ted Cruz (And Ostracize Him Too)
« Reply #765 on: September 27, 2018, 05:10:36 AM »
The saddest thing is that there are plenty of people who think Cruz is great, because he panders to their religious right agenda and wraps himself in the flag.

It's a proven strategy that works.

So he gets elected, pursues his agenda of austerity for the poor, destroying the poor women's right to choose whether to have a child, and tax cutting for the richest people on the planet.

You can't fix stupid.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 05:14:29 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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Re: Curse Ted Cruz (And Ostracize Him Too)
« Reply #766 on: September 27, 2018, 05:36:12 AM »
The saddest thing is that there are plenty of people who think Cruz is great, because he panders to their religious right agenda and wraps himself in the flag.

It's a proven strategy that works.

So he gets elected, pursues his agenda of austerity for the poor, destroying the poor women's right to choose whether to have a child, and tax cutting for the richest people on the planet.

You can't fix stupid.

Perhaps this time Beto will Beato him.

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🗳️ A Tumultuous 24 Hours: How Jeff Flake Delayed a Vote on Kavanaugh
« Reply #767 on: September 29, 2018, 12:04:06 AM »
Is Jeff up for re-election?

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/us/politics/jeff-flake-kavanaugh-confirmation.html

A Tumultuous 24 Hours: How Jeff Flake Delayed a Vote on Kavanaugh


Senator Jeff Flake returning to a session of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Friday after meeting with other senators before voting on Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination.Credit Erin Schaff for The New York Times

By Michael D. Shear, Nicholas Fandos and Michael S. Schmidt

    Sept. 28, 2018

WASHINGTON — Surrounded by his colleagues in a cramped corridor behind the Senate Judiciary Committee, Senator Jeff Flake was in agony, getting pounded on all sides.

He had already released a statement that he would vote “yes” in the committee and advance Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court to the full Senate floor. But two angry and tearful women had confronted him soon afterward in a Senate elevator, accusing him of telling girls that “assault doesn’t matter.”

Now, as the committee was on the verge of approving the nomination, Mr. Flake, Republican of Arizona, was having second thoughts, according to a half-dozen lawmakers and Senate staff aides who witnessed the scene. Why not accept Democratic demands for a one-week delay in the confirmation vote, he asked his fellow senators, and reopen an F.B.I. background investigation into sexual misconduct accusations against Judge Kavanaugh?

Republicans crowded around him, alarmed. Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas implored him not to waver. This is just a delaying tactic, they said, and would only lead to more allegations that they believed to be false, hurting the judge’s family.

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Democrats were on the other side, coaxing him to put off the vote. Senator Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware, a longtime friend, broke in: This is a mess, he said, and to lift the cloud over Judge Kavanaugh, an investigation was necessary.

But what could really be done in a week? There was a scramble to call Christopher Wray, the F.B.I. director, who could not be reached. The second choice was Rod J. Rosenstein, the deputy attorney general.

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Mr. Coons and Mr. Flake squeezed into an oversize phone booth — a few still exist on Capitol Hill — to make the call. They needed privacy rather than a landline, so held a cellphone on speaker between them. Mr. Rosenstein told them the F.B.I. could complete a background check in a week, although it was unlikely to unearth much more than was already known.

Minutes later, Mr. Flake, a pained expression on his face, returned to the committee room and made the announcement ensuring that the F.B.I. investigation would go forward — and once again upending Washington.
Trump Thinks It’s Over

The drama began 24 hours earlier, right after Christine Blasey Ford told the committee that she was sexually assaulted by Judge Kavanaugh when she was 15 years old. President Trump, aides said, believed she was persuasive and informed the aides that he believed the judge’s confirmation was in jeopardy. Maybe, he said, the F.B.I. should spend a week to investigate the accusations as Democrats were demanding.
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Some of the aides pushed back on Mr. Trump, including the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, who saw the investigation as a delay tactic cooked up by the Democrats to give them more time to dig up dirt on Judge Kavanaugh.

Mr. Trump heeded the advice, and in a rare moment of political restraint, his Twitter feed stayed quiet.
Image
President Trump with President Sebastián Piñera of Chile on Friday. After watching Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony on Thursday, the president is said to have told aides that he believed Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination was in jeopardy.CreditAl Drago for The New York Times

The strategy worked.

That afternoon Judge Kavanaugh delivered a fiery and emotional defense of his own character, prompting what looked by Thursday night to be unstoppable political momentum toward his confirmation to the Supreme Court.

Mr. Trump, who just hours earlier had appeared defeated to his aides, triumphantly tweeted after Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and the chairman of the judiciary committee, gaveled the hearing to a close.

“Democrats’ search and destroy strategy is disgraceful and this process has been a total sham and effort to delay, obstruct, and resist,” Mr. Trump wrote. “The Senate must vote!”

The president’s Republican allies on Capitol Hill were determined and confident. After a meeting of Republican senators late Thursday, Mr. Grassley scheduled a 9:30 a.m. hearing for Friday. Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, began talking about a final vote early next week.

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But the first evidence of a possible revolt came that same evening. As the president celebrated Judge Kavanaugh’s performance, Mr. Flake slipped away to the office of Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine. He huddled there with Ms. Collins, Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, and Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia.

All four had publicly expressed angst about deciding Judge Kavanaugh’s fate. In a Senate divided by the narrowest of margins — 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats — it would take only two of the Republicans to stop his nomination.

But what to do was not clear.

They knew that Dr. Blasey, a research psychologist, had captured the nation’s attention with a credible and heart-rending story that, if true, should disqualify anyone from service on the nation’s highest court. Yet Judge Kavanaugh’s angry proclamations of innocence and tearful pleas for fairness could not be ignored either.

The decision was wrenching, even before considering the politics. A vote to put Judge Kavanaugh on the bench could infuriate women — the very demographic Republicans were already struggling with in the midterm elections. But blocking his nomination to the Supreme Court would be like declaring civil war on conservatives.

The group made no final decisions, and Ms. Collins and Ms. Murkowski avoided reporters as they left the Capitol later that night. Senator Manchin told reporters that the group had concerns about moving forward with the nomination, but did not elaborate.

Mr. Flake went home for what he later described as a sleepless night. He said his struggle to come to a decision was “awful.”

“I want to support him. I’m a conservative, he’s a conservative judge,” Mr. Flake said. “But I want a process we can be proud of and I think the country needs to be behind it.”

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‘Look at Me’

By 9:29 a.m. Friday, one minute before the scheduled start of the Judiciary Committee meeting, Mr. Flake’s office sent a statement by email with a subject line that left no doubt about his position: “Flake Will Vote to Confirm Judge Kavanaugh.”
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Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, on Capitol Hill on Friday. She joined Mr. Flake’s call for a one-week delay to allow for an investigation.CreditErin Schaff for The New York Times

But moments later, as he boarded an elevator on his way to the meeting, Mr. Flake was confronted by two women, Ana Maria Archila and Maria Gallagher. The video of the encounter went viral.

“I have two children,” one of the women yelled at Mr. Flake as an aide said he needed to go. “I cannot imagine that for the next 50 years they will have to have someone in the Supreme Court who has been accused of violating a young girl. What are you doing, sir?”

Mr. Flake looked dejectedly at the floor of the elevator as the second woman lectured him. “You are telling all women that they don’t matter, that they should just stay quiet because if they tell you what happened to them, you are going to ignore them,” she shouted. “That’s what happened to me.”

“Look at me when I’m talking to you,” she added.

Mr. Flake’s face was grim as he arrived in the committee room and took his seat on the right flank of the dais.

Democrats made a motion to subpoena more witnesses to the sexual misconduct accusations, but that was defeated, 11 to 10, with Mr. Flake’s support. The senators began offering their statements. Republicans said they were encouraged to be moving Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination forward, to an expected vote early next week. Democrats assailed the process, again insisting on a one-week delay and an F.B.I. investigation.

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Almost three hours passed before Mr. Flake — looking increasingly uncomfortable — and Mr. Coons slipped out of the hearing room to begin discussing a possible delay. Senators crowded around, and the arguments continued as Mr. Flake made his decision.

Quickly, he held a conference call with Ms. Collins and Ms. Murkowski to ensure that he still had their support and that they agreed to a one-week delay. They did.
Accepting a Delay

Mr. Flake returned to the committee room and announced his intention: He wanted a one-week delay for an investigation but said, “I will vote to advance this bill to the floor.”

Democrats were initially confused, and some objected. It took a few minutes for the reality to sink in: Mr. Flake had given the Republicans the majority they needed to advance Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination. But with some help from his like-minded Republican colleagues from the previous night’s meeting, he also had the power to hold up a final vote until an F.B.I. inquiry could be conducted.

In a meeting Friday afternoon with members of the Judiciary Committee, Mr. McConnell vented. Make no mistake about it, he said, more accusations, false ones, will emerge while we wait on this. But in the end, he had to accept the delay.

So did Mr. Trump. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, posted a statement from the president to her Twitter feed at 4:56 p.m. Friday.

“I’ve ordered the FBI to conduct a supplemental investigation to update Judge Kavanaugh’s file,” Mr. Trump said in the statement. He had been pushed into doing what he mused about 24 hours earlier.

“As the Senate has requested,” Mr. Trump said, “this update must be limited in scope and completed in less than one week.”
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📺 Anderson Cooper: This is what a U-turn looks like
« Reply #768 on: September 30, 2018, 01:37:39 AM »
If Kav is confirmed, the Repugnants are going to get HAMMERED in the elections.

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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/8u9Mwm-CjQA" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/8u9Mwm-CjQA</a>
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🗳️ Another Kav Kan Kick!
« Reply #769 on: September 30, 2018, 03:05:24 AM »
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/29/flake-defends-call-for-kavanaugh-delay-were-coming-apart-at-seams.html

Flake defends call for Kavanaugh delay: 'We're coming apart at the seams'
Adam Shaw
By Adam Shaw | Fox News


Senator Jeff Flake calls for delay in Kavanaugh confirmation

Senator Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) is defending his call to delay the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh until there is an FBI investigation into the alleged assault that is 'limited in scope.'

 

Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., on Friday defended his controversial decision to demand a delay in the confirmation vote of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, saying he wanted to protect the credibility of America’s institutions.

“Two institutions, really,” he told The Atlantic. “One, the Supreme Court is the lone institution where most Americans still have some faith. And then the U.S. Senate as an institution—we’re coming apart at the seams. There’s no currency, no market for reaching across the aisle. It just makes it so difficult.”

Flake dramatically made the call for a one week delay, so that an FBI investigation could be carried out into sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh, at the final moments of a meeting of the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier Friday.

While Flake voted to recommend Kavanaugh’s nomination, he also made the call for a limited investigation, throwing a proposed timetable that would have seen Kavanaugh confirmed Tuesday into turmoil.

TRUMP ORDERS FBI INVESTIGATION OF KAVANAUGH, AS MCCONNELL SAYS NOMINATION IS 'MOVING' FORWARD 

Democrats had repeatedly called for an FBI probe, but Republicans had dismissed it as unnecessary and said Democrats were just looking for ways to delay the confirmation until after the midterm elections.

Kavanaugh testified Thursday about allegations made against him, shortly after Christine Blasey Ford testified about an alleged assault by Kavanaugh in 1982 when they were both at high school. Kavanaugh has emphatically denied all allegations against him.

Republicans agreed to Flake’s demand, which puts the vote to confirm Kavanaugh by at least a week.

“I’ve ordered the FBI to conduct a supplemental investigation to update Judge Kavanaugh’s file," Trump said in a statement. "As the Senate has requested, this update must be limited in scope and completed in less than one week.”

The move sparked a backlash from conservatives, furious at the delay. However, Republicans have slim majorities in both the committee and the Senate and can't afford defections in the face of near-unanimous Democratic opposition.

Flake told The Atlantic that he was moved by an impassioned plea by Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., calling for a delay. He also said that a moment when he was confronted by women who said they had been sexually assaulted “certainly struck a chord.”

He conceded that conservatives are right to be concerned that the time will be used by Democrats and left-wing activists to try and derail the confirmation.

“I’m sure that will happen. There are already people saying, ‘Oh a week’s not enough.’ We tried to limit the time duration for the investigation, and limit the scope to the current allegations. But no doubt some will try to use it, and it’s time for more accusations to come forward,” he said.

However, he also said that the delay could eventually help both Republicans, and Kavanaugh himself.

“Obviously. I’ve felt that this delay is as much to help him as us. My hope is that some Democrats will say “Hey, we may not change our vote, but this process was worthy of the institution, and we feel satisfied.” That means something,” he said. “The country needs to hear that.”
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📺 Kavanaugh Hearing Cold Open - SNL
« Reply #770 on: September 30, 2018, 05:47:20 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/VRJecfRxbr8" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/VRJecfRxbr8</a>
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/us/non-voters-midterm-elections.html

Planning to Vote in the November Election? Why Most Americans Probably Won’t


Lula Hill at the hotel she owns in Madison, W.Va. She said she has grown disillusioned with politicians and no longer votes.CreditCreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

By Sabrina Tavernise

    Oct. 3, 2018

MADISON, W.Va. — Lula Hill voted in just about every election once she became old enough in 1952. Her coal mining family of registered Democrats believed that elections were like church services: You didn’t skip them.

But over time, her sense of civic obligation faded. Mines started laying people off. Opioids started poisoning her neighbors. As her town lost its vigor, Ms. Hill watched as smiling politicians kept making promises and, in her view, growing richer. By the late 1990s, when political leaders — Democrat or Republican — talked about the greater good, she no longer believed them.

“I just got to the point, I said, ‘I’m not going do it anymore,’” said Ms. Hill, sitting on a couch in the lobby of the hotel she owns and runs, the Hotel Madison, 30 miles south of Charleston. “I just can’t vote for any of them in good conscience.”

She has not voted since 1996 and said she has no intention of starting in November. Ms. Hill is hardly alone in West Virginia, a state with one of the lowest rates of voter turnout in the country and where the Democratic senator, Joe Manchin III, faces a tough race.

This year’s election carries enormous political stakes, but if history is any guide, the vast majority of eligible voters will stay home on Election Day. Slightly more than a third of eligible voters turned out across the country in the last midterm elections, the lowest share since 1942, according to Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, who runs the United States Elections Project that tracks voting data back to 1789.

And while turnout has been higher in this season’s special elections and primaries, experts say that in November it is still unlikely to break out of the middling range it has been stuck in for nearly a century.

People typically cite one of two reasons for why they do not vote in midterm elections: they are either too busy or not interested, according to Dr. McDonald’s analysis of responses to the Census Bureau from 2000 to 2016.

“The costs of voting are not terribly high compared to the way they’ve been at times in American history,” said Benjamin Highton, a political scientist at the University of California at Davis, who has studied voter ID laws. “People simply have other things they are more interested in, like making ends meet on a day-to-day basis.”

Americans used to vote at much higher rates — sometimes above 80 percent in the second half of the 19th century. In those years, a multitude of parties brought a vibrancy to political life. Party machines helped people with jobs, fuel bills and funeral expenses in return for votes.

But turnout declined sharply from 1900 through the 1940s, as the power of the party machines declined and voter suppression shut out blacks in the South and many immigrants in the North. The rate of voting has never recovered. The last time more than half of eligible voters turned out for a midterm election was 1914, said Dr. McDonald.

The United States’ turnout in national elections lags behind other democratic countries with developed economies, ranking 26th out of 32 among peers in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the Pew Research Center.


A sign in Madison for Senator Joe Manchin III, who is running for re-election in a tough race.CreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

Perhaps the most significant change has been in who votes. Unlike in the 19th century, voter turnout is now highly correlated with class. More than 80 percent of Americans with college degrees vote compared with about 40 percent of Americans without high school degrees, according to Jonathan Nagler, a political scientist at New York University and co-author of a 2014 book, “Who Votes Now.”

“There is a class skew that is fundamental and very worrying,” said Alexander Keyssar, a historian at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, who wrote “The Right to Vote.” “Parts of society remain tuned out and don’t feel like active citizens. There is this sense of disengagement and powerlessness.”

The effect, he said, has been a more unequal society and “more of a gap between what we say this country is about and what it really is.”

Until about the 1980s, West Virginia had some of the highest voting rates in the country. In 1952, the first year Ms. Hill voted, 77 percent of West Virginians turned out, according to Dr. McDonald, a stunning number by today’s standards and higher than the national rate then of 62 percent. Voting back then was festive, a social occasion at the polls. People put on their nice clothes. Women brought cornbread and pinto beans.

“You’d go in there and there’d be people everywhere,” said Albert Baisden, a retired trucking company owner in Dingess, recalling election times in the 1950s. “You had to fight your way in through the crowd to get to vote. You couldn’t hardly get a parking place. Everybody was grabbing you by the right arm, by the left arm, saying, ‘Vote for me!’”

Back then, this patch of West Virginia was more vibrant, as well. Ms. Hill recalled that her hotel was full almost every night, mostly with men working in construction for the mines. She remembers they used to take off their work boots in their trucks and change into slippers so they would not track mud on her carpet.

But in the span of a generation, the town’s sense of community fell apart, she said. Ms. Hill said she has had 27 flat-screen TVs stolen from her rooms. Eventually she stopped replacing them. Even the cushions on the couch in her lobby were stolen; a lawn chair pad is in their place.

“We have nothing now,” Ms. Hill said, sitting in the lobby of the hotel, an airy room with tall ceilings and wall paneling adorned with teapots and cuckoo clocks. “It’s all gone.”

Voting went down, too. The midterm election of 1998 was the first time in Ms. Hill’s life she did not vote. She was not alone: Only 29 percent of eligible West Virginians voted that year, according to Dr. McDonald’s data.

The strongest predictor of voting, according to Dr. Highton, is political engagement. Those who are interested in politics — whether they grew up in families that followed it or developed interest as an adult — tend to vote, he said.

“It’s like being a sports fan,” he said. “Some people just aren’t.”

Clara Bender, 69, a waitress in Madison, has never voted.

“I just never got into it,” she said, as she cleared a table for a customer. “I got married, had babies — just never had the time.”

Ms. Bender said she did not know enough about the candidates to choose.

But she is public spirited in other ways. As a young mother, she got involved in her children’s school. She raised her granddaughter and helped her open the restaurant where their family now works. These days, she spends most of her time being a patient listener for a community whose heart is broken. The woman she was just serving, she said, had a son addicted to drugs and was crying when she walked in. “I have to make time for them,” she said.


Carrena Rouse, an English teacher at Scott High School, was hopeful that this year’s teachers’ strike would lift a sense of civic spirit and drive voter turnout.CreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

As for never voting: “It just didn’t bother me.”

To Carrena Rouse, an English teacher at Scott High School, that is a bitter pill, especially after watching the extraordinary energy over the statewide teachers’ strike earlier this year.

“People say my vote won’t do any good, but I beg to differ,” said Ms. Rouse, who was among the thousands of teachers who went on strike.

She believes the state is dominated by coal money and politicians who pander to it precisely because people let it be by not voting. And she thought the teachers’ strike and the outpouring of public support they got would translate into more votes in the state’s primary in May.

But she was disappointed that only 26 percent of registered voters went to the polls, “after everything that happened,” she said.

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“That’s the disturbing part,” she said. “I don’t want to use language like ‘betrayed,’ but pretty close.”

Still, the voting rate on Primary Day was up by nearly a third from the primary in 2014, according to West Virginia’s Office of the Secretary of State.

More young people went to the polls, too. According to TargetSmart, a political analytics company in Washington, D.C., turnout for people under 30 was up by half in the West Virginia primary compared with the primary in 2014, but was still less than the national rise.

Many younger people interviewed in Madison last month said that they would vote, but that they did not spend much time thinking about politics or consider it a part of their identity. Jennifer Anderson, a worker at Miller Brothers Pharmacy, said she did not know the political orientation of her colleagues. She said she would probably vote, but she has not yet decided for whom or for which party.

“Some of my issues are on one side, and some are on the other,” she said.

Turnout in West Virginia was higher in May despite a new voter ID law the state put in effect in January. Generally, new laws around voting access can make it easier or harder to vote, but researchers say they do not explain much about the country’s lackluster turnout. About 2 percent of people told the Census Bureau they did not vote in the last midterm election because of problems with registration, according to Dr. McDonald.

For Ms. Hill, national politics feels distant these days, as if events are happening on another planet.

“I’m just to the point where I’m so disillusioned over what goes on,” she said of politicians in Washington and her state. “All they are doing is slinging mud at each other. If they would just stop the squabbling and think of the people.”

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Besides, she had more important things to think about. She was busy washing sheets and cleaning rooms. A pipe was leaking and she needed a plumber.

“My sister said, ‘Sis, we didn’t vote so we don’t have the right to complain,’” she said. “That may be true, but I might have felt even worse voting for some of these people
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🗳️ Cruz the Coward
« Reply #772 on: October 10, 2018, 12:01:15 AM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/410652-orourke-to-appear-solo-in-cnn-town-hall

O'Rourke to appear solo in CNN town hall
By Joe Concha - 10/09/18 06:06 PM EDT


O'Rourke to appear solo in CNN town hall

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has declined an offer to participate in an upcoming CNN town hall while his Democratic Senate challenger Rep. Beto O'Rourke has agreed to participate, according to the network.

"Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign initially accepted CNN's invitation to participate" but has since declined, CNN said in an announcement. The town hall in McAllen, Texas, on Oct. 18 will be hosted by chief political correspondent Dana Bash.

The Hill has reached out to Cruz's spokesperson for comment.

The network will also be offering up two debates this month: A debate Oct. 16 featuring Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and his GOP challenger Gov. Rick Scott in the Florida Senate race, which will be moderated by anchor Wolf Blitzer from Tampa, Fla.; and another Oct. 21 between Florida gubernatorial candidates former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), a one-hour debate moderated by anchor Jake Tapper, also from Tampa.

Cruz was critical of CNN earlier this year after one of its graphics accused him of being "afraid" to go on the network by attending a town hall about school shootings and guns following the Parkland, Fla., mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

"What are they afraid of?" the graphic asked in calling out Cruz, along with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Gov. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
Cruz replied with sarcasm in noting he had done three town hall debates on the network with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
 
"You can accuse me of many things, but being afraid of CNN is not one of them," Cruz wrote on Twitter in February.
Cruz and O'Rourke are locked in a tight race in deep-red Texas, with the Republican leading by 6 points in the RealClearPolitics polling index.
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🗳️ Cruz plays the inside game to beat O'Rourke
« Reply #773 on: October 15, 2018, 10:12:41 AM »
Why am I not surprised?  ::)

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/15/texas-senate-ted-cruz-orourke-898946

Elections
Cruz plays the inside game to beat O'Rourke


After running as the archetypal outsider in earlier campaigns, Ted Cruz has leaned on his establishment connections to win reelection in Texas.

By JAMES ARKIN

10/15/2018 05:09 AM EDT

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz rode an anti-Washington wave into the Senate in 2012, became a disruptive outsider in the chamber the next year, and ran against the establishment when he sought the presidency in 2016.

But when his reelection campaign wobbled earlier this year under pressure from upstart Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Cruz leaned hard on a new strategy: the inside track.

Cruz’s TV ads have touted his record bringing home billions in federal relief spending after Hurricane Harvey, highlighting “bipartisan” tax relief for those affected by the storm. Cruz’s Texas colleague, Sen. John Cornyn — whom Cruz declined to endorse in 2014 when Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, faced a primary challenge — headlined a six-figure fundraiser for Cruz in Washington. And Cruz has leaned on help from the highest echelons of the Republican Party, campaigning with Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr. in Texas recently and getting a commitment from President Donald Trump for a future event.

Cruz remains as conservative as ever, but he sanded down some of the sharp edges on his personality and political strategy in the Senate last year, working within his party on Obamacare repeal and other legislative efforts instead of from the outside as he had in 2013. Now, Cruz’s insider connections are powering his effort to return for a second term.

“It would be disingenuous for Cruz to campaign as an outsider when he’s in there in the thick of things,” said Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist who worked with Cruz’s GOP opponent in 2012 before briefly working with him in 2016.

“He was talking about the dysfunction of Washington, that nothing good was happening from his perspective, and he was going there to shake things up,” Carney added. “There’s no question he shook things up. Now he’s outlining what he’s delivered in the shakeup.”

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There’s another reason for Cruz’s insider turn. O’Rourke, who is drawing big crowds and raising even bigger money from a grassroots army of supporters, has seized Cruz’s stylistic sweet spot — running not just against Cruz but against the political system in general as he seeks to make up a deficit in the polls.

“It seems to me Beto has become the Ted Cruz of the general election,” said one Republican consultant in Texas, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “He’s running almost a Ted Cruz style of race in the sense of the way Ted ran with the primary [in 2012].”

But Cruz has responded. While O’Rourke raised a record $38 million last quarter, Cruz brought in a more-than-passable $12 million, an impressive haul that’s allowed him to narrow a TV spending gap that grew earlier this year. Cornyn’s fundraiser netted six figures, and multiple events with Trump Jr. in Dallas pulled in nearly half a million dollars. Three recent polls of the race showed Cruz at or above 50 percent, and leading O’Rourke by a comfortable margin.

Still, many Republicans were caught off guard by O’Rourke’s summer surge, and they grew nervous when the race appeared more competitive.

“I think he needs all the help he can get, and he's asking for it,” said a veteran Republican operative from Cruz’s home base in Houston. “He's never done that before.”

(Cruz's campaign declined multiple requests to make him available for an interview.)
Beto O'Rourke

Elections
O'Rourke raises record-smashing $38 million in third quarter

By ZACH MONTELLARO

A Republican lobbyist in Texas, who requested anonymity to speak frankly, said Cruz’s outreach wasn’t easy at first, given the frosty relationships he had with some state political figures whose support he had never wanted or needed before. But the lobbyist said most of the party has warmed up to Cruz and gotten fully behind his reelection bid.

“It was a little slow warming up, but one thing about Cruz is he sticks to the game plan,” the lobbyist said. “His game plan was to cultivate them and over time, and over the last couple years, he's made inroads. It’s been to his advantage. He couldn't have stayed where he was and get reelected.”

Not everyone agrees with the notion that Cruz has changed. Mark Miner, a veteran operative in the state who worked for former Gov. Rick Perry, said Cruz is the same firebrand as the one who defeated the establishment favorite in his 2012 primary.

“Ted Cruz has managed to remain an outsider while he's in elected office,” Miner said.

But David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth — one of Cruz’s earliest political allies, which aided his primary campaign in 2012 — called Cruz’s transformation a “smoothing of the sharp edges a bit.” He pointed out that the Club, an anti-tax organization, urged members of Congress to vote against the Hurricane Harvey relief Cruz pushed so hard for and now touts on the trail. McIntosh said it was wise of Cruz to launch his campaign ads on the issue.
Rep. Beto O'Rourke

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‘I am ashamed’: Beto apologizes for ‘demeaning comments about women’

By ALEX ISENSTADT

Scott Reed, the senior political strategist from the establishment-friendly U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Cruz went on a “charm offensive” to woo local chamber chapters around Texas in an effort to win support from the business community, which has been receptive.

“There's no doubt he needed to do redefining after the 2016 election, but welcome to politics,” Reed told POLITICO. “I wouldn’t say it was tough, but it took work. And to his credit, he rolled up his sleeves and went and did it.”

The willingness of Cruz’s former adversaries to aid his campaign stretches to the White House. Cruz and Trump famously traded bitter personal attacks during the presidential race — Trump retweeted a supporter mocking Cruz’s wife and linked Cruz’s father to John F. Kennedy’s assassin without evidence, leading Cruz to call Trump a “pathological liar” and a “serial philanderer.”

But the president has been an eager ally to Cruz since then. James Dickey, the Texas GOP chairman, told POLITICO that during his first time meeting Trump, in July 2017, the president told him he was “100 percent” behind Cruz — long before O’Rourke became a national sensation and Republicans of all stripes rode in to aid Cruz’s campaign.

Still, Cruz has faced questions throughout this campaign about his newfound positive relationship with Trump. In the first and so-far only debate of the campaign, Cruz defended working “hand in hand” with the president, calling it the only way to be effective in the Senate.

"Yes, I could have chosen to make it about myself, to be selfish and say my feelings are hurt so I'm going to take my marbles and go home, but I think that would have been not doing the job I was elected to,” Cruz said.
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🗳️ Beto O'Rourke goes on attack in Cruz debate: 'Dishonest,' 'Lyin' Ted'
« Reply #774 on: October 17, 2018, 01:27:52 AM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/beto-o-rourke-goes-attack-cruz-debate-dishonest-lyin-ted-n920976

Beto O'Rourke goes on attack in Cruz debate: 'Dishonest,' 'Lyin' Ted,' 'All talk, no action'
In the hour-long face off in San Antonio, Cruz stressed many policy differences with his Democratic rival and labeled him "extreme."

by Dartunorro Clark / Oct. 16, 2018 / 6:53 PM AKDT / Updated 7:29 PM AKDT


Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, from right, speaks as he and Democratic challenger and US Representative from Texas Beto O'Rourke, from left, meet during a debate before the US Midterm elections in San Antonio, Texas on October 16, 2018.Tom Reel / Pool via EPA

Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, trailing in the polls, went on the attack Tuesday night in a debate with Ted Cruz, calling his Republican rival "dishonest" and reviving Donald Trump's derisive and memorable nickname for the Texas senator.

Borrowing a page from Trump's campaign playbook, O'Rourke dubbed Cruz as "Lyin' Ted" minutes into the hour-long face off.

"This is what you can expect over course of the debate: Senator Cruz won't be honest with you. He's dishonest," O'Rourke said. "It's why the president called him 'Lyin' Ted' and it's why the nickname stuck — because it's true."

Cruz shot back: "It's clear Congressman O'Rourke's pollsters have told him to come out on the attack. If he wants to insult me and call me names, that's fine." But, Cruz went on to note, "facts are stubborn things."
Cruz, O'Rourke trade barbs in Senate debate
Oct. 16, 201802:05

It was the second debate in a hard-fought Senate contest that has become the focus of national attention — O'Rourke recently shattered a fundraising record by hauling in $38 million in a three-month period. Polls show the contest in the reliably red state is still fairly close, with Cruz holding a single-digit lead three weeks from Election Day.

Their meeting in what is likely the final debate was marked by repeated jabs and sharp policy differences from the opening bell. The two clashed over abortion, health care, energy, immigration, the Supreme Court, trade and more.

But it was perhaps most notable for O'Rourke's more aggressive and sometimes personal attacks on Cruz, a much sharper approach than the El Paso-area congressman took in their first debate last month.

"He's all talk and no action," O'Rourke said late in the debate, citing Cruz's vote against a bill to protect women from violence.

O'Rourke repeatedly portrayed his opponent as putting his own interests ahead of Texans, charging that Cruz had missed many votes in the Senate while campaigning across the country for the White House in 2016.

"Ted Cruz has put his career above the interests and priorities of Texas. Ted Cruz is for Ted Cruz," O'Rourke said.
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Cruz got in plenty of shots of his own, calling his opponent "extreme" on immigration and charging that O'Rourke not only opposed building a border wall but also wanted to tear down existing fences and barriers. The Republican also charged O'Rourke had opposed law enforcement his entire career in public life.

Cruz said O'Rourke still "goes with the left-wing national activists and left-wing national donors."

Cruz said he wants to work with Trump on trade policy and other issues, and noted O'Rourke is the only Democrat running for Senate in the country who has called for the president's impeachment, a statement O'Rourke did not dispute. Cruz told the audience that mattered because if O’Rourke wins, there will be "two years of a partisan circus and a witch hunt on the president."

"Really interesting to hear you talk about a partisan circus after your six years in the U.S. Senate," O'Rourke replied, to laughter from the audience.

During one of the final moments of the debate, Cruz elicited groans from the audience when he snapped at reporter Jason Whitely, one of the debate's moderators, for trying to ask a follow-up to a question about the lack of civility in public life.

"Don't interrupt me, Jason," Cruz said.

Trump is coming to Texas on Monday to campaign on behalf of Cruz at a rally in Houston.

The debate was hosted at at the studio of KENS-5, a CBS affiliate in San Antonio, and the candidates answered questions from two of the network's reporters.
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🗳️ Midterm Elections 2018 House Battleground Poll Finds Voters Don't Like
« Reply #775 on: October 24, 2018, 12:05:51 AM »
https://www.newsweek.com/midterm-elections-2018-poll-republicans-democrats-1183518

 U.S.
Midterm Elections 2018 House Battleground Poll Finds Voters Don't Really Like Republicans or Democrats
By Ramsey Touchberry On 10/23/18 at 11:21 AM

The 'Pink Wave': Record Number Of Women Battling At The Midterms

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/umu1t2uHFxw" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/umu1t2uHFxw</a>

U.S.
2018 Midterms

As Democrats fight for a “blue wave” in hopes to take control of the House of Representatives after the midterms, and Republicans try to hold on to its GOP majority, a new poll released Tuesday that surveyed voters in battleground congressional districts found that 10 percent of respondents disliked both parties.

The poll, conducted by the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School for Policy and Government, found that of those 10 percent who disliked both political parties, voters preferred the Democratic candidate running in their district by 15 points over the GOP candidate.

Voters in the key battleground districts appeared largely unimpressed with both parties. Fifty-two percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Democrats, with 53 percent viewing the Republican Party negatively. Only 20 percent said they had a strongly favorable opinion of Democrats, with 19 percent saying the same for Republicans.

Voters still indicated it would be a tight race come Election Day, with 50 percent supporting the Democratic candidate and 47 percent supporting the Republican.

Of the 69 battleground districts voters were polled in, 63 of them are GOP-controlled. For Democrats to take the House, they need to flip 24 seats currently held by Republicans. With the sentiment among voters in the Republican districts at a near statistical tie when it comes to who they’re likely to vote for, it’s a good indication that Democrats have a likely chance of flipping a number of conservative seats.

midterm elections 2018 poll
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan participate in a ceremony to mark the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol April 12 in Washington, D.C. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Voters were also asked about what, if any, impact the confirmation process of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh had on their intent to vote in the midterms. Most of those surveyed, 59 percent, felt more motivated to vote while just 2 percent said they were less motivated. The question did not ask which party the voters supported.

Kavanaugh, who was accused by multiple women of sexual misconduct stemming from his time in high school and college in the 1980s, was narrowly confirmed by the Senate earlier this month following public testimony from Kavanaugh and one of his accusers, debates among lawmakers and a supplemental FBI investigation.

When voters were asked in the Washington Post-Schar School poll about those who are wrongly accused of sexual assault, 57 percent said they were concerned someone close to them may be unfairly accused. Seventy-eight percent voiced concern that women in the U.S. are not believed when they report a sexual assault while 22 percent were not. Asked which the larger issue is, 59 percent believed it was women not being believed vs. 41 percent who thought it was men who were unfairly accused.

The poll bodes well for Democrats, hopeful to regain control of the House for the first time since 2010. Other forecasts, such as FiveThirtyEight, also show that Democrats have a likely chance of retaking the chamber. Still, polls and forecasts are not always accurate, with the 2016 presidential election as evidence. Most polls and predictions at the time showed Hillary Clinton would defeat then-candidate Trump by a hefty margin.

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who labels himself as a democratic-socialist, offered a warning to Democrats to beware of a “blue wave” that many in the party and expecting could help them win come November 6.

“I know a lot of people talk about this blue wave and all that stuff. I don’t believe it,” Sanders told The Hill.

The Post-Schar School poll was conducted in 69 congressional districts that are considered “tossup,” “lean Democrat” or “lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report, in addition to any other classified as such by The Post. Of those surveyed, 48 percent were male and 51 percent female, with 80 percent of the overall respondents being white. The poll, conducted October 15-21, received responses from 1,545 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
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🗳️ Beto O’Rourke’s Huge Facebook Bet
« Reply #776 on: October 29, 2018, 11:31:30 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/10/beto-orourke-leads-midterm-election-spending-on-facebook-ads/574051/

Technology
Beto O’Rourke’s Huge Facebook Bet

The candidate has outspent Ted Cruz by roughly $5 million—and every other candidate in the midterms by at least $3 million.
Alexis C. Madrigal
9:00 AM ET


A woman wearing blue takes a selfie with three men also wearing blue
Beto O'Rourke (right) poses for a picture with a supporter in Del Rio, Texas.Sergio Flores / Reuters

Beto O’Rourke is placing a very big bet on Facebook—so big that he’s spent nearly as much as money on that type of digital ad as the next five biggest candidate spenders combined.

Through October 20, O’Rourke alone had spent $5.4 million advertising on the platform, according to Facebook’s Ad Archive Report. J.B. Pritzker, Kamala Harris, Andrew Cuomo, Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp had spent $5.5 million total. O’Rourke’s opponent, Senator Ted Cruz, had spent only $427,000 on Facebook, about a thirteenth as much as O’Rourke.

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Much of O’Rourke’s Facebook-ad buy seems to be going toward short videos of the candidate talking to crowds or directly to the camera.

“My personal point of view is that this is really smart—especially in a state like Texas where TV is very expensive and there are many markets that may be out of reach for [O’Rourke],” said Dan Wagner, the chief analytics officer for the Obama 2012 campaign.

The two Texas Senate hopefuls are relatively close in spending on television ads. While O’Rourke had spent more than $15 million on television ads through mid-October, Cruz and associated PACs had spent $12 million and were on pace to nearly catch up there. O’Rourke has also spent $1.3 million on Google ads, also top among all candidates, though by a much narrower margin (Rick Scott has spent over $1 million). Cruz has spent little on Google—$181,000—according to the company’s political transparency report.
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O’Rourke is still considered a long shot to win the Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump carried by 9 percent. But his unexpected fundraising success—pulling in $62 million through September 30—has catapulted the relatively unknown congressman from El Paso onto the national stage. Viral videos of O’Rourke’s speeches have traveled far, driven, in part, by left-of-center media sites like NowThis. One on NFL players kneeling did 46 million views.

Read: Beto O’Rourke grabbed a political third rail—and electrified his campaign

But O’Rourke’s own video team has proved able to get and recognize hot footage, according to Kasra Shokat, a digital-media strategist at the consultancy, Winning Mark. “He has invested a ton of infrastructure that can turn around and produce video on a dime and get those up quickly,” Shokat said. “That’s the kind of engaging content that works really well.”

Shokat said that he’s begun to recommend that campaigns, especially those of charismatic talkers, hire full-time video help to create content.

According to analysis of Facebook’s political-ad archive by NYU’s Tandon School of Engineering’s Online Political Ads Transparency Project, the $400,000 that O’Rourke’s campaign spent between September 9 and 22 generated a minimum of 19.4 million impressions, and likely many, many more. (Facebook only provides a range for people who have seen a particular ad, and the team chooses the smallest number.) So it’s looking like O’Rourke’s total spending on Facebook has generated into the hundreds of millions of impressions.

The Transparency Project’s analysis of O’Rourke’s campaign shows that he began to ramp up spending on Facebook in July and has continued to run hundreds of different ads supported by (in aggregate) tens of thousands of dollars. The bulk of O’Rourke’s advertising has, as you’d expect, been targeted inside Texas, but his fundraising entreaties were spread out nationally.
Beto O’Rourke’s per-capita impressions by state from September 9-22 (Online Political Ads Transparency Project)

Facebook remains an afterthought for most Senate candidates. Florida Republican Ron DeSantis, for example, has raised $44 million, and his campaign and associated entities have spent less than $200,000 on a meager number of Facebook ads.

O’Rourke’s remarkable fundraising might not be duplicable by candidates with less star power or in less contentious races, and who knows, maybe he’ll get crushed. But if O’Rourke’s Facebook-heavy campaign surprises, even with a closer-than-expected loss, his approach could be a blueprint for state-level candidates devoting more resources to the platform.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com

Alexis C. Madrigal is a staff writer at The Atlantic. He's the author of Powering the Dream: The History and Promise of Green Technology.
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Re: 🗳️ Beto O’Rourke’s Huge Facebook Bet
« Reply #777 on: October 29, 2018, 12:01:25 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/10/beto-orourke-leads-midterm-election-spending-on-facebook-ads/574051/

Technology
Beto O’Rourke’s Huge Facebook Bet

The candidate has outspent Ted Cruz by roughly $5 million—and every other candidate in the midterms by at least $3 million.
Alexis C. Madrigal
9:00 AM ET


A woman wearing blue takes a selfie with three men also wearing blue
Beto O'Rourke (right) poses for a picture with a supporter in Del Rio, Texas.Sergio Flores / Reuters

Beto O’Rourke is placing a very big bet on Facebook—so big that he’s spent nearly as much as money on that type of digital ad as the next five biggest candidate spenders combined.

Through October 20, O’Rourke alone had spent $5.4 million advertising on the platform, according to Facebook’s Ad Archive Report. J.B. Pritzker, Kamala Harris, Andrew Cuomo, Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp had spent $5.5 million total. O’Rourke’s opponent, Senator Ted Cruz, had spent only $427,000 on Facebook, about a thirteenth as much as O’Rourke.

Sign up for The Atlantic’s daily newsletter.

Each weekday evening, get an overview of the day’s biggest news, along with fascinating ideas, images, and voices.
Email Address (required)

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Much of O’Rourke’s Facebook-ad buy seems to be going toward short videos of the candidate talking to crowds or directly to the camera.

“My personal point of view is that this is really smart—especially in a state like Texas where TV is very expensive and there are many markets that may be out of reach for [O’Rourke],” said Dan Wagner, the chief analytics officer for the Obama 2012 campaign.

The two Texas Senate hopefuls are relatively close in spending on television ads. While O’Rourke had spent more than $15 million on television ads through mid-October, Cruz and associated PACs had spent $12 million and were on pace to nearly catch up there. O’Rourke has also spent $1.3 million on Google ads, also top among all candidates, though by a much narrower margin (Rick Scott has spent over $1 million). Cruz has spent little on Google—$181,000—according to the company’s political transparency report.
More Stories

    A doctored photo of Tom Hanks was shared by an alleged Iranian propaganda page,
    Iranian Propaganda Targeted Americans With Tom Hanks
    Alexis C. Madrigal
    Two seated figures with heads that are the square Facebook default picture
    Facebook Groups as Therapy
    Sarah Zhang
    Sponsor Content
    One of the World’s Greatest Composers Scores a Breathtaking Drive.
    Land Rover
    New for Democracy Ads from Facebook Political Ad Archive
    The Secretive Organization Quietly Spending Millions on Facebook Political Ads
    Alexis C. Madrigal
    A person uses an iPhone on a tripod to broadcast an event to Facebook Live.
    How Facebook’s Chaotic Push Into Video Cost Hundreds of Journalists Their Jobs
    Alexis C. Madrigal Robinson Meyer

O’Rourke is still considered a long shot to win the Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump carried by 9 percent. But his unexpected fundraising success—pulling in $62 million through September 30—has catapulted the relatively unknown congressman from El Paso onto the national stage. Viral videos of O’Rourke’s speeches have traveled far, driven, in part, by left-of-center media sites like NowThis. One on NFL players kneeling did 46 million views.

Read: Beto O’Rourke grabbed a political third rail—and electrified his campaign

But O’Rourke’s own video team has proved able to get and recognize hot footage, according to Kasra Shokat, a digital-media strategist at the consultancy, Winning Mark. “He has invested a ton of infrastructure that can turn around and produce video on a dime and get those up quickly,” Shokat said. “That’s the kind of engaging content that works really well.”

Shokat said that he’s begun to recommend that campaigns, especially those of charismatic talkers, hire full-time video help to create content.

According to analysis of Facebook’s political-ad archive by NYU’s Tandon School of Engineering’s Online Political Ads Transparency Project, the $400,000 that O’Rourke’s campaign spent between September 9 and 22 generated a minimum of 19.4 million impressions, and likely many, many more. (Facebook only provides a range for people who have seen a particular ad, and the team chooses the smallest number.) So it’s looking like O’Rourke’s total spending on Facebook has generated into the hundreds of millions of impressions.

The Transparency Project’s analysis of O’Rourke’s campaign shows that he began to ramp up spending on Facebook in July and has continued to run hundreds of different ads supported by (in aggregate) tens of thousands of dollars. The bulk of O’Rourke’s advertising has, as you’d expect, been targeted inside Texas, but his fundraising entreaties were spread out nationally.
Beto O’Rourke’s per-capita impressions by state from September 9-22 (Online Political Ads Transparency Project)

Facebook remains an afterthought for most Senate candidates. Florida Republican Ron DeSantis, for example, has raised $44 million, and his campaign and associated entities have spent less than $200,000 on a meager number of Facebook ads.

O’Rourke’s remarkable fundraising might not be duplicable by candidates with less star power or in less contentious races, and who knows, maybe he’ll get crushed. But if O’Rourke’s Facebook-heavy campaign surprises, even with a closer-than-expected loss, his approach could be a blueprint for state-level candidates devoting more resources to the platform.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com

Alexis C. Madrigal is a staff writer at The Atlantic. He's the author of Powering the Dream: The History and Promise of Green Technology.


I cast my vote for Beto, therefore his chances of winning are near zero. According to the Historical Eddie Vote Indicator, which has never failed, even with Hillary Clinton, whom I was sure would win. A vote from Eddie is a curse worse than death.

HOWEVER....lol.....Cruz's poll lead is down to 5 points today, and the FB ads were no doubt a very good idea, and I'm not sure the polls reflect that kind of grassroots approach to vote-getting. It will be interesting to see how it works out.
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Re: 🗳️ Beto O’Rourke’s Huge Facebook Bet
« Reply #778 on: October 29, 2018, 12:09:04 PM »

I cast my vote for Beto, therefore his chances of winning are near zero. According to the Historical Eddie Vote Indicator, which has never failed, even with Hillary Clinton, whom I was sure would win. A vote from Eddie is a curse worse than death.

HOWEVER....lol.....Cruz's poll lead is down to 5 points today, and the FB ads were no doubt a very good idea, and I'm not sure the polls reflect that kind of grassroots approach to vote-getting. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

5 pts is down from 6 yesterday.  That is a percentage point a day. Still a week until the Polls close  Beto can Beat-o Cruz with a big turnout of Brown People and Wimen and Queers.  Facepalm can make that happen.

This is a Horserace.

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #779 on: October 29, 2018, 12:58:08 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/JzwcOp5ne6o&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/JzwcOp5ne6o&fs=1</a>
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