AuthorTopic: Election Errata  (Read 97508 times)

Online Eddie

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Re: 🗳️ Demodopes make it clear: No MOAR White Men!
« Reply #840 on: November 16, 2018, 04:24:33 AM »
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/democratic-presidential-candidates-2020-diversity-white-men.html

Democrats Have Made One Thing Very Clear About 2020: They’re Over White Men
Or, why Kamala Harris looks like a likely nominee.

By Jamelle Bouie
Nov 15, 2018 3:11 PM


Collage of potential Democratic presidential candidates
Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images, Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images, Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images, Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images, and Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images.

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The midterm elections did not give Democrats a singular leader to rally behind, nor did it settle ideological divides in the party. But the results can tell us a lot about the mood among Democratic voters, and what they might be looking for in a 2020 presidential nominee.

First, much hay has been made about the choice between progressives on one hand and moderates or “centrists” on the other. You could read the midterms results as vindication for the latter; outspoken progressives like Kara Eastman in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and Leslie Cockburn in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District fell short, while a large number of self-described moderate Democrats flipped Republican-held seats in contests across the country.

A few facts complicate that analysis. First, aggressive, left-wing candidates had huge success in toppling Democratic incumbents in House and statewide primaries, from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York’s 14th Congressional District and Deb Haaland in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, to Andrew Gillum and Ben Jealous in the Florida and Maryland gubernatorial races. Given the choice between “establishment” Democrats and progressive insurgents, many Democratic voters chose the latter in their primaries.

What’s more, candidates like Stacey Abrams of Georgia and Beto O’Rourke of Texas may have fallen short, but the progressive energy behind their campaigns pulled other Democrats in those states across the finish line. Base expansion and mobilization may not have been enough to win in 2018, but those candidates closed substantial gaps and have set the stage for future success.
Democratic voters are leaning into the multicultural and multiracial nature of their coalition, facing the president’s exclusionary rhetoric with a spirit of inclusion.

There’s also the question of “moderation” itself. Moderate is a relative term; its placement depends on the larger, constantly moving picture. Democrat Max Rose ran as a moderate in his successful bid for the 11th District of New York, which includes Staten Island and went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Rose emphasized his military service—the 31-year-old is a veteran of Afghanistan—and distanced himself from national Democratic leadership, going as far as saying he wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi for speaker of the House. He rejected Medicare for all.

But his “centrism” reflects a Democratic Party that has moved to the left since it last held the House of Representatives. Rose’s “top priorities” for health care include a “public option” for insurance and a Medicare expansion that lowers the eligibility age to 55. Had he served in the 111th Congress, which passed the Affordable Care Act, this position would have put him to the left of the median Democrat and in line with the views of the House Progressive Caucus. While progressive candidates may have lost races on Election Day, Democratic voters have clearly moved to the left, and they expect their candidates to do the same.

Democratic primary voters are still moving in the two directions shown in their choices in the 2016 presidential race. Reflecting the influence of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, they want unambiguously progressive policies. The incrementalism of Hillary Clinton’s campaign has not worn well in the face of a radical, right-wing Republican presidency. And yet, Democrats still want to make history and elevate candidates from marginal and underrepresented groups. Instead of reacting to President Trump’s misogyny and racism by favoring male candidates, Democratic voters are leaning into the multicultural and multiracial nature of their coalition, facing the president’s exclusionary rhetoric with a spirit of inclusion.

Democrats’ desire for diversity is increasingly apparent. Democratic voters nominated an unprecedented 180 female candidates in House primaries, as well as 133 people of color, including Native American and Muslim American candidates. Democrats also nominated 21 openly LGBT candidates for Congress. For the first time in the party’s history, white men were a minority in the House Democratic candidate pool. And while election officials are still tallying votes in several states, the Democrats’ incoming class of House members reflects the diversity of their candidate pool.

This thirst for diversity extended to statewide races. Democrats nominated black candidates for governor in Florida, Georgia, and Maryland, for lieutenant governor in Michigan, for attorney general in Nevada and Illinois, and for Senate in Mississippi. The incoming senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema, is openly bisexual, and the governor-elect of New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham, is Latina. In CNN’s exit polls, 65 percent of voters who valued electing racial and ethnic minorities and 66 percent of voters who valued electing women backed Democratic candidates. It helps explain the striking success of nonwhite candidates in predominantly white districts, like Lauren Underwood of Illinois, Lucy McBath of Georgia, or Antonio Delgado of New York.

All of this brings obvious takeaways for the 2020 presidential race. Calls for Democrats to nominate Beto O’Rourke, former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, or Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown make sense—these are talented, charismatic politicians who might improve the party’s appeal with downscale whites. But they ignore or don’t take seriously the clear preference for diverse candidates among Democratic primary voters. Assuming they run, their odds of winning aren’t low—Sanders was the runner-up in 2016 and Biden is a popular figure in the party—but they aren’t as high as they might appear either.

The opposite is true for the cohort of white women and people of color who are clearly in the race for president. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren may have stumbled with her attempt to settle questions about her heritage, but she’s still in the running. Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota may be unknown on the national stage, but they are skilled politicians with demonstrated appeal to rural and working-class whites. The same is true for Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who hasn’t made the same moves toward running as her peers but who might appeal to Democratic primary voters for her progressive politics, clear appeal to working-class whites (she won 60 percent of white union households in her re-election bid this year), and history-making potential: She would be the first openly LGBTQ president.

If there’s anyone who sits at the intersection of what Democratic voters seem to want in a candidate, it’s Sen. Kamala Harris of California. A nonwhite woman, she looks like the most active and loyal parts of the Democratic base. A black woman with South Asian heritage, she would make history as president. She’s close to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party (but not so progressive that she doesn’t have real opposition on the left, tied to her controversial record as state attorney general) and has built herself up as a tough, unapologetic opponent of the administration (although she has voted for some of Trump’s nominees). Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, likewise, would satisfy an apparently strong desire from Democratic voters to elevate a candidate of color to the White House. (This desire is why you also shouldn’t dismiss former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who is also considering a bid for the nomination and has support from top Obama allies.)

With all of that said, the very fact of a President Donald Trump should inspire humility about our ability to forecast or predict electoral outcomes. The midterm elections offer strong signals about what Democratic primary voters might want in a presidential nominee, but there’s no way to know how these candidates will perform once they hit the trail. Indeed, there’s no way to answer the only question that really matters for the 2020 race—who can beat Trump?

but there’s no way to know how these candidates will perform once they hit the trail

Probably not very well, if 42% of the population think they're not going to be represented. Don't get me wrong. Some of these candidates might have a chance....but it's really just MOAR of the same shtick. The Democrats are the party of all the minorities. This is the ballot brought to you by 60 years of Affirmative Action.

These candidates, if elected, will have the same problems trying to lead the country that Obama had. But at this point, only the changing demographics can elect them,because most white working class voters won't vote for them.

« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 05:44:49 AM by Eddie »
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Re: 🗳️ Demodopes make it clear: No MOAR White Men!
« Reply #841 on: November 16, 2018, 04:49:19 AM »

but there’s no way to know how these candidates will perform once they hit the trail

Probably not very well, if 42% of the population think they're not going to be represented. Don't get me wrong. Some of these candidates might have a chance....but it's really just MOAR of the same shtick. The Democrats is the party of all the minorities. This is the ballot brought to you by 60 years of Affirmative Action.

These candidates, if elected, will have the same problems trying to lead the country that Obama had. But at this point, only the changing demographics can elect them,because most white working class voters won't vote for them.

LOL. How did I KNOW this article would ge a response from you?   ::)

You make this case persistently, and it is somewhat true of course.  You ignore the fact though that the Repugnants have their own problems these days, and J6P White Guy is having ever more problems voting for them too!

All the Demodopes need here is a White Women on top of the ticket and some Minority Male for Veep, and they can win.  The Wimmen will turn out in big numbers this time around, and a Brown Person in the Veep spot gets the Minority vote.

Trump is working his way towards universal hatred.  He shoots himself and his Deplorable supporters in the foot so often these days it's amazing any of them can still walk.  By 2020, he will have completely evicerated his support.  That's why an Impeachment really is not a good idea at this point.  Give him enough rope, he will hang himself.

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #842 on: November 16, 2018, 05:59:15 AM »
What I'm saying is not SOMEWHAT true.

It is perfectly true, completely true, and highly accurate.

The mid-term elections in these high profile races were quite close, and I had hoped that the sensible people would prevail.

Here, at least, that did not happen.

Black people are notorious for being apathetic voters. They might turn out for a black candidate, but not for a hispanic. Forget about that. Hispanics, who generally like to think of themselves as white anyway, are a mixed bag, when it comes to voting. Here, a fair number  of them vote for Trump, because (apparently) they are just as delusional as poor whites.

The gerrymandering is not easily overcome. That, in my opinion, will keep the scales tipped toward the increasingly Nazi-acting Republicans.

Trump, if he is in it, will garner plenty of votes. I don't know if he can win, but I wouldn't look for the other side to run away with the election. That's delusional thinking.
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🗳️ Cisneros defeats Kim in southern California, turning Orange County blue
« Reply #843 on: November 18, 2018, 12:16:26 AM »
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/17/cisneros-defeats-kim-in-california-turning-orange-county-blue-1000533


Gil Cisneros, Democratic candidate for California's 39th Congressional District, leaves after speaking at an election night party on Nov. 6 in Fullerton, Calif. | Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

Elections
Cisneros defeats Kim in southern California, turning Orange County blue

By QUINT FORGEY

11/17/2018 09:27 PM EST

Democrat Gil Cisneros has defeated Republican Young Kim in the race for California's 39th Congressional District, officially turning the former GOP stronghold of Orange County entirely blue.

Democrats, who needed a net gain of 23 seats to reclaim the House from Republicans, have now picked up 38 seats. The contest between Cisneros and Kim was the last House race of the 2018 cycle yet to be decided in California.

Cisneros' win follows a victory Thursday by Democratic House candidate Katie Porter, who unseated two-term incumbent Republican Rep. Mimi Walters in California's 45th Congressional District — the penultimate Orange County district to fall out of Republicans' hands.

Cisneros will replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, a Republican.
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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-2020-democratic-primary-995353

2020 Elections
‘He’s Barack Obama, but white’: Beto O’Rourke blows up the 2020 Democratic primary

Top party donors and operatives are eager to see the Texas congressman jump into the presidential race.


The ascent of Rep. Beto O'Rourke reflects the volatility of a 2020 presidential primary that has flummoxed Democratic donors and activists for months. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

By DAVID SIDERS

11/19/2018 05:04 AM EST


Sparked by his narrow defeat in a Texas Senate race, Beto O’Rourke is scrambling the 2020 presidential primary field, freezing Democratic donors and potential campaign staffers in place as they await word of his plans.

Even prior to O’Rourke’s meteoric rise, many Democratic fundraisers had approached the large number of 2020 contenders with apprehension, fearful of committing early to one candidate. But the prospect of a presidential bid by O’Rourke, whose charismatic Senate candidacy captured the party’s imagination, has suddenly rewired the race.

O’Rourke — who raised a stunning $38 million in the third quarter of his race — is widely considered capable of raising millions of dollars quickly, according to interviews with multiple Democratic money bundlers and strategists, catapulting him into the upper echelons of the 2020 campaign.

Mikal Watts, a San Antonio-based lawyer and major Democratic money bundler, said several donors and political operatives in Iowa, after hearing from other potential candidates in recent days, have called to ask if O’Rourke is running, a sign of his impact in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

“They’re not wanting to sign on to other presidential campaigns until they know whether Beto is going,” Watts said. “And if Beto is running, what good progressive Democrat wouldn’t want to work for Beto O’Rourke?”

He said, “I can tell you that there has not been this kind of level of electric excitement about a candidate since” Barack Obama ran in 2008.
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O’Rourke raised more than $70 million in total in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, mostly from small donors in a race that captured national attention. Though he fell short — losing 51 percent to 48 percent — his closer-than-expected performance in the largest red state on the map was credited with lifting at least two Democrats to victory over House Republican incumbents.
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A POLITICO/Morning Consult presidential primary poll last week put O’Rourke in third place among Democratic voters, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

“He’s game changing,” said Robert Wolf, an investment banker who helped raise Wall Street money for Obama in 2008 and 2012. “If he decides to run, he will be in the top five. You can’t deny the electricity and excitement around the guy.”

While other prominent Democrats, including Biden, Sanders and Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have support networks of their own, Wolf said, “Beto comes out of [the midterm elections] saying, ‘Oh my God, if a guy can do well in Texas, he certainly can do well throughout the country as a Democrat.”

“I get the hype,” Wolf said. “I think there’s an incredible amount of excitement around Beto. A lot of people have comparisons around him and a Robert Kennedy or a Barack Obama. And the [Democratic] Party likes young, ambitious and aspirational.”

The ascent of O’Rourke, a three-term congressman from El Paso, reflects the volatility of a 2020 presidential primary that has flummoxed Democratic donors and activists for months. Many fundraisers who have exclusively supported a single candidate in previous years are expected to hedge their bets initially, spreading smaller amounts to several candidates.

One major Democratic bundler on the West Coast told POLITICO he is advising donors against throwing in with one candidate, saying, “It’s naivete, it’s political suicide to do that.”

O’Rourke is a major reason for donors' uncertainty, the bundler said, having “brought a whole bunch of new people off the sidelines.”

“That’s this cycle’s ‘Bernie army’ — it’s ‘Beto’s Army,’” he said, comparing O’Rourke’s Senate fundraising to the crush of small donors who propelled Sanders in his unsuccessful 2016 primary campaign.

“All the guy would have to do is send out an email to his fundraising base … and he raises $30 million,” the bundler said. “That has totally changed the landscape for the Tier 1 guys, because now Bernie and Warren, now they have competition. It completely changes the game if Beto runs. And he should run … He’s Barack Obama, but white.”
Joe Biden

2020 Elections
Poll: Biden, Bernie, Beto lead 2020 Dem field

By STEVEN SHEPARD

O’Rourke said before the midterm elections that he would not run for president, promising to serve six years in the Senate if elected. When asked at a CNN town hall if he would run for president if he did not win the Senate race, O’Rourke responded, “If I don’t win, we’re back in El Paso.”

But Democrats have not taken O’Rourke’s comments as ruling out a run.

“I think that’s a decision that he has to make as to whether or not he’s going to run for president,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said. “Everybody’s waiting to see what Beto’s going to do.”

Asked about a potential presidential run, O’Rourke told the website TMZ on Friday, “I haven’t made any decisions about anything.”

For Democratic strategists eager to advance a younger nominee contrasting with President Donald Trump, O’Rourke’s appeal rests on his perceived ability to bridge a gulf within the party — between Democratic contenders who are older but come with pre-existing donor networks, and Democrats who are younger but have not yet developed a substantial fundraising base. O’Rourke, at 46, has both.

“People across the country just fell in love with him,” said Christian Archer, a San Antonio-based Democratic strategist. “He was able to raise national-level money, and that’s just such a distinct advantage.”

However, Archer said, “There’s a fuse on that, and the question is how long will that last if he doesn’t make a move within a window of time.”

Archer said, “Right now, he’s on fire.”

If O’Rourke is giving donors any pause, it is largely because his fundraising came in a Senate contest, not a presidential primary stuffed full of marquee Democrats. New York Republican Rick Lazio, who set a single-quarter fundraising record in his losing New York Senate bid against Hillary Clinton in 2000 — a record surpassed by O’Rourke — failed to translate energy from that campaign into future political success. And in a lengthy presidential race, early stars can fade.
Beto O'Rourke

Elections
Beto’s consolation prize: Running for president

By BEN SCHRECKINGER

George Tsunis, the hotel magnate and Obama megadonor, said O’Rourke “performed very admirably” in the Senate race. But he was skeptical that O’Rourke could replicate his fundraising in a presidential race, saying many donors were likely motivated by anti-Cruz sentiment.

Still, Tsunis acknowledged the donor universe remains wide open. “A lot of people that I’m talking to are in a quandary,” he said. “They may have a half a dozen friends that are looking to do this, and they are so unbelievably torn here.”

There isn’t much modern historical precedent for O’Rourke to draw on. George H.W. Bush was a Texas congressman who won the presidency after an unsuccessful 1970 Senate bid. But his presidential run didn’t come until years later — and it took Bush two tries before winning the White House.

Abraham Lincoln ran for president — and won — after two losing campaigns for Senate. But the last person to go from the House to the presidency was James Garfield in 1880.

"One thing that [O’Rourke] is going to have to overcome is that he did lose to Ted Cruz," said Cappy McGarr, a Dallas-based investor and Democratic fundraiser. “He is the real deal, though. He’s charismatic, he’s thoughtful, he’s able — he is one of the most exciting politicians I’ve seen since Barack Obama ran for president.”

Like many donors, however, McGarr holds a favorable view of several potential contenders, including Biden, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and Julián Castro, the former San Antonio mayor and Obama Cabinet secretary.

“I have a lot of friends who might be running for president, and I think the more the merrier,” McGarr said. “And I certainly wouldn’t preclude giving and raising monies for more than one candidate.”

Steve Westly, a former California state controller and major bundler of campaign contributions for Obama, said O’Rourke “has a lot of the wow factor now, and one could easily say, ‘He didn’t win.’ But to get [close] in Texas, that suggests to me that if he were the national nominee running against a non-Texan, he might well pull that state … and he is charismatic as heck.”

Westly said he does not “have complete conviction yet” about which candidate to support, with a primary field that appears “completely, totally different than anything I’ve seen in the last half century.”

Still, as he begins to field calls from potential candidates, Westly said he believes Democratic voters are “looking for newer faces outside the traditional Northeast corridor” of typical Democratic politicians, mentioning Bloomberg and Starbucks founder Howard Schultz, among others, as credible potential candidates.

Most years, Westly said, “Guys like me can say, ‘Hey, it’s going to be one or two people, it’s person A, B or C, here’s why. It’s a short discussion … it’s five minutes, we can narrow it down.”

In 2020, he said, “Here you have something fundamentally different … In terms of betting odds, it’s really hard to sort out.”

But Watts said O’Rourke could immediately narrow the field.

“I don’t’ believe that 50-year-old guys like me and 60-year-old guys in Washington who are in an hourly form of political warfare understand how disillusioned that warfare has made the younger people of this country,” he said. “From that perspective, Beto’s unvarnished approach was both refreshing to me, but intoxicating to the younger generation.”

“If Bernie runs and Warren runs and Kamala runs and [Cory] Booker runs, I think they all wash each other out in a certain way," Watts said. “Beto’s got the juice right now. If he goes, he’s going to suck a lot of the oxygen out of the room. A lot … and immediately.”
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-prodded-by-supporters-to-run-in-2020-for-president-or-senate.html

Beto O'Rourke's donors and supporters are prodding him to run for president or against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2020

    The rising Democratic star, who has been the subject of intense speculation about a possible White House run, is privately engaging with his donors and supporters about his next move.
    Two of the options he's facing include either running for president in 2020 or for John Cornyn's Senate seat.
    O'Rourke, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table.

Brian Schwartz   | @schwartzbCNBC
Published 7 Hours Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com
      
      
Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), candidate for U.S. Senate speaks with reporters after voting in the 2018 midterm elections in El Paso, Texas, U.S., November 6, 2018.
Mike Segar | Reuters

Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who became a Democratic superstar during his competitive but ultimately losing campaign against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, is being prodded by his top donors and supporters to make a run for either the White House or Texas' other U.S. Senate seat in 2020, CNBC has learned.

Since O'Rourke's nail-biting loss on election night, backers have encouraged him to use the statewide and national recognition he gained during the race to propel himself to a higher office, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who declined to be named.

The Texas Democrat, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table, including a run for president and possibly another campaign for Senate, according to a person who recently spoke to the congressman. O'Rourke has also noted, however, that he's not ready to commit to what comes next after his final term in Congress comes to an end in January, according to this person. It is unclear when O'Rourke will make his decision.
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz 
12:24 AM ET Wed, 7 Nov 2018 | 03:05

O'Rourke had been the subject of intense 2020 speculation through much of his Senate campaign. Polls show he's among the potential candidates most popular with Democratic voters. A recent Morning Consult/Politico poll shows O'Rourke ranked third among whom Democrats prefer to be their first choice for president in the upcoming election, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders and ahead of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

O'Rourke's campaign spokesman did not return repeated requests for comment. Yet the politician appeared to tell the gossip and celebrity news outlet TMZ in a recent interview that he wasn't ruling out jumping into the 2020 presidential race.

"You know … I haven't made any decisions about anything is probably the best way for me to put it," O'Rourke said last week. "I think everything's too fresh still for me."

In an interview with MSNBC's "Morning Joe," Rep.-elect Veronica Escobar, who will succeed O'Rourke in his House seat, said he should run for president. Escobar also said she asked him about his future plans at a recent dinner in Washington, D.C.

"I think he should run. I really do," Escobar said Monday. "We owe such a debt of gratitude to Beto. ... He does it in a beautiful, genuine way that really touches people, and I think that's what our country needs right now," she added.
Cornyn and O'Rourke

Texas' other Senate seat is held by Majority Whip John Cornyn, the second-highest-ranking Republican in the chamber. He is up for re-election.

A spokesman for Cornyn directed CNBC to the recent comments on NBC affiliate KXAN in Austin, Texas, about his upcoming re-election bid.

"I intend to be ready and do my homework," Cornyn said in the interview.

Cornyn would be a vastly different opponent for O'Rourke than Cruz. Throughout his run for Senate, O'Rourke cited how often he worked with Cornyn on legislation. Still, Democratic strategists believe Cornyn is vulnerable going into 2020 and there could be an opportunity for O'Rourke to pull off a victory.

"I think Cornyn is more vulnerable then Ted Cruz was in the last cycle," Texas Democratic strategist Matt Angle said in an interview. "Cornyn is not a George W. Bush Republican anymore, and the right wing know he's not one of them, either," he added, meaning that he is seen neither as a traditional Republican nor a member of the GOP's hard-liners.

A combination of those factors, plus continued support from young voters, may be what O'Rourke needs to take down the veteran senator in two years, according to Angle.
O'Rourke's appeal

O'Rourke, a three-term congressman, galvanized young voters and Democratic supporters in Texas and beyond with his mix of charisma, social media savvy and a policy message at odds with that of President Donald Trump's.

His platform included calling for improvement to the Affordable Care Act, speaking out against Trump's proposed wall along the southern border and increasing federal spending on infrastructure to create construction jobs for Texans. His engagement with voters through social media and in the field also gave him a boost going into Election Day. O'Rourke often filmed himself running with supporters and driving across the state during the campaign.

Those factors helped him to break fundraising records and to come within 3 percentage points of unseating Cruz. O'Rourke would have been the first Democrat elected to represent Texas in the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1970.

O'Rourke's campaign made history with its third-quarter fundraising haul of $38.1 million, raking in more than Barack Obama did in the same period in the 2008 presidential campaign and more than Hillary Clinton did in the third quarter of 2016. O'Rourke finished the 2018 election cycle raising just more than $70 million and with $10 million on hand, Federal Election Commission records show.
Texas intrigue

Even people who might take on O'Rourke and what's generally considered to be a big Democratic field in 2020 have been asking members of O'Rourke's inner circle if he will run for president.

Julian Castro, former secretary of Housing and Urban Development and twin brother of Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, has had at least one conversation with a friend of O'Rourke's and asked if he's running for president, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation.

One of those conversations happened on election night at O'Rourke's headquarters in El Paso, Texas, according to a person who spoke with Castro that night. Julian Castro was told that O'Rourke is still considering his options and is focusing on what's best for his family.

Julian Castro did not return requests for comment.

The intrigue comes after Julian Castro has reportedly met with a group of financiers about possibly jumping into the presidential election. The Castro brothers were top supporters for O'Rourke during his Senate run and joined him on his campaign tour along the Texas border.

Julian Castro told an audience at a conference on Mexican-American civil rights in San Antonio on Friday that whatever O'Rourke chooses to do, it won't impact his decision on running for president.

A person close to O'Rourke says Julian Castro's next move won't affect O'Rourke's future, either.

"I think its an independent decision for Beto. I joke with him saying, 'Well who's not running?' I think he's going to think it through for himself," this person said.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-prodded-by-supporters-to-run-in-2020-for-president-or-senate.html

Beto O'Rourke's donors and supporters are prodding him to run for president or against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2020

    The rising Democratic star, who has been the subject of intense speculation about a possible White House run, is privately engaging with his donors and supporters about his next move.
    Two of the options he's facing include either running for president in 2020 or for John Cornyn's Senate seat.
    O'Rourke, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table.

Brian Schwartz   | @schwartzbCNBC
Published 7 Hours Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com
      
      
Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), candidate for U.S. Senate speaks with reporters after voting in the 2018 midterm elections in El Paso, Texas, U.S., November 6, 2018.
Mike Segar | Reuters

Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who became a Democratic superstar during his competitive but ultimately losing campaign against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, is being prodded by his top donors and supporters to make a run for either the White House or Texas' other U.S. Senate seat in 2020, CNBC has learned.

Since O'Rourke's nail-biting loss on election night, backers have encouraged him to use the statewide and national recognition he gained during the race to propel himself to a higher office, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who declined to be named.

The Texas Democrat, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table, including a run for president and possibly another campaign for Senate, according to a person who recently spoke to the congressman. O'Rourke has also noted, however, that he's not ready to commit to what comes next after his final term in Congress comes to an end in January, according to this person. It is unclear when O'Rourke will make his decision.
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz 
12:24 AM ET Wed, 7 Nov 2018 | 03:05

O'Rourke had been the subject of intense 2020 speculation through much of his Senate campaign. Polls show he's among the potential candidates most popular with Democratic voters. A recent Morning Consult/Politico poll shows O'Rourke ranked third among whom Democrats prefer to be their first choice for president in the upcoming election, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders and ahead of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

O'Rourke's campaign spokesman did not return repeated requests for comment. Yet the politician appeared to tell the gossip and celebrity news outlet TMZ in a recent interview that he wasn't ruling out jumping into the 2020 presidential race.

"You know … I haven't made any decisions about anything is probably the best way for me to put it," O'Rourke said last week. "I think everything's too fresh still for me."

In an interview with MSNBC's "Morning Joe," Rep.-elect Veronica Escobar, who will succeed O'Rourke in his House seat, said he should run for president. Escobar also said she asked him about his future plans at a recent dinner in Washington, D.C.

"I think he should run. I really do," Escobar said Monday. "We owe such a debt of gratitude to Beto. ... He does it in a beautiful, genuine way that really touches people, and I think that's what our country needs right now," she added.
Cornyn and O'Rourke

Texas' other Senate seat is held by Majority Whip John Cornyn, the second-highest-ranking Republican in the chamber. He is up for re-election.

A spokesman for Cornyn directed CNBC to the recent comments on NBC affiliate KXAN in Austin, Texas, about his upcoming re-election bid.

"I intend to be ready and do my homework," Cornyn said in the interview.

Cornyn would be a vastly different opponent for O'Rourke than Cruz. Throughout his run for Senate, O'Rourke cited how often he worked with Cornyn on legislation. Still, Democratic strategists believe Cornyn is vulnerable going into 2020 and there could be an opportunity for O'Rourke to pull off a victory.

"I think Cornyn is more vulnerable then Ted Cruz was in the last cycle," Texas Democratic strategist Matt Angle said in an interview. "Cornyn is not a George W. Bush Republican anymore, and the right wing know he's not one of them, either," he added, meaning that he is seen neither as a traditional Republican nor a member of the GOP's hard-liners.

A combination of those factors, plus continued support from young voters, may be what O'Rourke needs to take down the veteran senator in two years, according to Angle.
O'Rourke's appeal

O'Rourke, a three-term congressman, galvanized young voters and Democratic supporters in Texas and beyond with his mix of charisma, social media savvy and a policy message at odds with that of President Donald Trump's.

His platform included calling for improvement to the Affordable Care Act, speaking out against Trump's proposed wall along the southern border and increasing federal spending on infrastructure to create construction jobs for Texans. His engagement with voters through social media and in the field also gave him a boost going into Election Day. O'Rourke often filmed himself running with supporters and driving across the state during the campaign.

Those factors helped him to break fundraising records and to come within 3 percentage points of unseating Cruz. O'Rourke would have been the first Democrat elected to represent Texas in the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1970.

O'Rourke's campaign made history with its third-quarter fundraising haul of $38.1 million, raking in more than Barack Obama did in the same period in the 2008 presidential campaign and more than Hillary Clinton did in the third quarter of 2016. O'Rourke finished the 2018 election cycle raising just more than $70 million and with $10 million on hand, Federal Election Commission records show.
Texas intrigue

Even people who might take on O'Rourke and what's generally considered to be a big Democratic field in 2020 have been asking members of O'Rourke's inner circle if he will run for president.

Julian Castro, former secretary of Housing and Urban Development and twin brother of Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, has had at least one conversation with a friend of O'Rourke's and asked if he's running for president, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation.

One of those conversations happened on election night at O'Rourke's headquarters in El Paso, Texas, according to a person who spoke with Castro that night. Julian Castro was told that O'Rourke is still considering his options and is focusing on what's best for his family.

Julian Castro did not return requests for comment.

The intrigue comes after Julian Castro has reportedly met with a group of financiers about possibly jumping into the presidential election. The Castro brothers were top supporters for O'Rourke during his Senate run and joined him on his campaign tour along the Texas border.

Julian Castro told an audience at a conference on Mexican-American civil rights in San Antonio on Friday that whatever O'Rourke chooses to do, it won't impact his decision on running for president.

A person close to O'Rourke says Julian Castro's next move won't affect O'Rourke's future, either.

"I think its an independent decision for Beto. I joke with him saying, 'Well who's not running?' I think he's going to think it through for himself," this person said.

He might beat Cornyn, who is as stiff as a board. Too bad he didn't beat Cruz, because Cruz is way worse than John Cornyn.

Five years in the House is not much of a track record for somebody who wants to be President. Even freshman Senators have a hard time, as Cruz found out. I'm not even sure Trump is worse than Cruz.

Cruz is a boil on America's butt that needs to be lanced by somebody, but he appeals to the strong Texas Idiot vote.

Beto for President as an idea..... is a testament to the fact that they have no good candidates. I wish him well but I don't see him even carrying Texas in a 2020 POTUS election.

The Castros are biding their time, waiting for the Brown Wave.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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Five years in the House is not much of a track record for somebody who wants to be President.

Trumpovetsky had NO track record and now he's POTUS.

As I said before, it's too early to call this and it really depends how the campaigns shape up.  I'll wait and see who throws their hats in the ring.  Also how many more fuck ups Trumpofsky makes over the next 2 years.  The fact the House flipped over by such a huge margin is a clear sign the Donald's base of support is eroding.  I know you don't think that's true though.  You appear to believe he is "unbeatable".  We'll see.

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #848 on: November 19, 2018, 07:48:41 PM »
I don't think he's unbeatable. I think the Democrats beat themselves by subscribing to the false paradigm their leadership has bought into.

Texas used to occasionally elect a grassroots Democrat.

Nobody even remembers.



Know this guy?

Didn't think so.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #849 on: November 19, 2018, 08:04:56 PM »
I don't think he's unbeatable. I think the Democrats beat themselves by subscribing to the false paradigm their leadership has bought into.

That is equivalent to saying he is unbeatable.  You're making the case the Demodopes can't win, therefore Trump can't be beat.  No 3rd Party can win, obviously.

Quote
Texas used to occasionally elect a grassroots Democrat.

Nobody even remembers.

Know this guy?

Didn't think so.


Ralph Yarborough.

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Online Eddie

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #850 on: November 19, 2018, 08:06:19 PM »
You cheated.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-prodded-by-supporters-to-run-in-2020-for-president-or-senate.html

Beto O'Rourke's donors and supporters are prodding him to run for president or against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2020

    The rising Democratic star, who has been the subject of intense speculation about a possible White House run, is privately engaging with his donors and supporters about his next move.
    Two of the options he's facing include either running for president in 2020 or for John Cornyn's Senate seat.
    O'Rourke, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table.

Brian Schwartz   | @schwartzbCNBC
Published 7 Hours Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com
      
      
Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), candidate for U.S. Senate speaks with reporters after voting in the 2018 midterm elections in El Paso, Texas, U.S., November 6, 2018.
Mike Segar | Reuters

Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who became a Democratic superstar during his competitive but ultimately losing campaign against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, is being prodded by his top donors and supporters to make a run for either the White House or Texas' other U.S. Senate seat in 2020, CNBC has learned.

Since O'Rourke's nail-biting loss on election night, backers have encouraged him to use the statewide and national recognition he gained during the race to propel himself to a higher office, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who declined to be named.

The Texas Democrat, for his part, has told some of his closest associates that all options are on the table, including a run for president and possibly another campaign for Senate, according to a person who recently spoke to the congressman. O'Rourke has also noted, however, that he's not ready to commit to what comes next after his final term in Congress comes to an end in January, according to this person. It is unclear when O'Rourke will make his decision.
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz
Democrat Beto O'Rourke speaks after losing Senate race to Ted Cruz 
12:24 AM ET Wed, 7 Nov 2018 | 03:05

O'Rourke had been the subject of intense 2020 speculation through much of his Senate campaign. Polls show he's among the potential candidates most popular with Democratic voters. A recent Morning Consult/Politico poll shows O'Rourke ranked third among whom Democrats prefer to be their first choice for president in the upcoming election, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders and ahead of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

O'Rourke's campaign spokesman did not return repeated requests for comment. Yet the politician appeared to tell the gossip and celebrity news outlet TMZ in a recent interview that he wasn't ruling out jumping into the 2020 presidential race.

"You know … I haven't made any decisions about anything is probably the best way for me to put it," O'Rourke said last week. "I think everything's too fresh still for me."

In an interview with MSNBC's "Morning Joe," Rep.-elect Veronica Escobar, who will succeed O'Rourke in his House seat, said he should run for president. Escobar also said she asked him about his future plans at a recent dinner in Washington, D.C.

"I think he should run. I really do," Escobar said Monday. "We owe such a debt of gratitude to Beto. ... He does it in a beautiful, genuine way that really touches people, and I think that's what our country needs right now," she added.
Cornyn and O'Rourke

Texas' other Senate seat is held by Majority Whip John Cornyn, the second-highest-ranking Republican in the chamber. He is up for re-election.

A spokesman for Cornyn directed CNBC to the recent comments on NBC affiliate KXAN in Austin, Texas, about his upcoming re-election bid.

"I intend to be ready and do my homework," Cornyn said in the interview.

Cornyn would be a vastly different opponent for O'Rourke than Cruz. Throughout his run for Senate, O'Rourke cited how often he worked with Cornyn on legislation. Still, Democratic strategists believe Cornyn is vulnerable going into 2020 and there could be an opportunity for O'Rourke to pull off a victory.

"I think Cornyn is more vulnerable then Ted Cruz was in the last cycle," Texas Democratic strategist Matt Angle said in an interview. "Cornyn is not a George W. Bush Republican anymore, and the right wing know he's not one of them, either," he added, meaning that he is seen neither as a traditional Republican nor a member of the GOP's hard-liners.

A combination of those factors, plus continued support from young voters, may be what O'Rourke needs to take down the veteran senator in two years, according to Angle.
O'Rourke's appeal

O'Rourke, a three-term congressman, galvanized young voters and Democratic supporters in Texas and beyond with his mix of charisma, social media savvy and a policy message at odds with that of President Donald Trump's.

His platform included calling for improvement to the Affordable Care Act, speaking out against Trump's proposed wall along the southern border and increasing federal spending on infrastructure to create construction jobs for Texans. His engagement with voters through social media and in the field also gave him a boost going into Election Day. O'Rourke often filmed himself running with supporters and driving across the state during the campaign.

Those factors helped him to break fundraising records and to come within 3 percentage points of unseating Cruz. O'Rourke would have been the first Democrat elected to represent Texas in the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1970.

O'Rourke's campaign made history with its third-quarter fundraising haul of $38.1 million, raking in more than Barack Obama did in the same period in the 2008 presidential campaign and more than Hillary Clinton did in the third quarter of 2016. O'Rourke finished the 2018 election cycle raising just more than $70 million and with $10 million on hand, Federal Election Commission records show.
Texas intrigue

Even people who might take on O'Rourke and what's generally considered to be a big Democratic field in 2020 have been asking members of O'Rourke's inner circle if he will run for president.

Julian Castro, former secretary of Housing and Urban Development and twin brother of Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, has had at least one conversation with a friend of O'Rourke's and asked if he's running for president, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation.

One of those conversations happened on election night at O'Rourke's headquarters in El Paso, Texas, according to a person who spoke with Castro that night. Julian Castro was told that O'Rourke is still considering his options and is focusing on what's best for his family.

Julian Castro did not return requests for comment.

The intrigue comes after Julian Castro has reportedly met with a group of financiers about possibly jumping into the presidential election. The Castro brothers were top supporters for O'Rourke during his Senate run and joined him on his campaign tour along the Texas border.

Julian Castro told an audience at a conference on Mexican-American civil rights in San Antonio on Friday that whatever O'Rourke chooses to do, it won't impact his decision on running for president.

A person close to O'Rourke says Julian Castro's next move won't affect O'Rourke's future, either.

"I think its an independent decision for Beto. I joke with him saying, 'Well who's not running?' I think he's going to think it through for himself," this person said.

He might beat Cornyn, who is as stiff as a board. Too bad he didn't beat Cruz, because Cruz is way worse than John Cornyn.

Five years in the House is not much of a track record for somebody who wants to be President. Even freshman Senators have a hard time, as Cruz found out. I'm not even sure Trump is worse than Cruz.

Cruz is a boil on America's butt that needs to be lanced by somebody, but he appeals to the strong Texas Idiot vote.

Beto for President as an idea..... is a testament to the fact that they have no good candidates. I wish him well but I don't see him even carrying Texas in a 2020 POTUS election.

The Castros are biding their time, waiting for the Brown Wave.
I'd vote for him in a heartbeat compared to anyone I've seen you guys put up there in the last one primaries and main show. He speaks well, seems human, is not a fossil, can actually pull off a baseball cap and shows some respect for the process...The boomers will have less sway this time, the millennials are 4 years older and pissed.They rightly see every other western country with health care and subsidized or free education with no higher levels of debt then the US and feel cheated. You've tried to shake things up to the right its about time you try the same on the left... It will be fun to watch.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #852 on: November 19, 2018, 08:37:20 PM »
You cheated.

How can you know that?  :icon_mrgreen:

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I'd vote for him in a heartbeat compared to anyone I've seen you guys put up there in the last one primaries and main show. He speaks well, seems human, is not a fossil, can actually pull off a baseball cap and shows some respect for the process...The boomers will have less sway this time, the millennials are 4 years older and pissed.They rightly see every other western country with health care and subsidized or free education with no higher levels of debt then the US and feel cheated. You've tried to shake things up to the right its about time you try the same on the left... It will be fun to watch.

I tend to agree with you NF.  Not to mention a few other factors.

He raises a LOT of money for 1.  Money buys you votes.  He'll wipe the floor with Trumpovetsky in a debate, for 2.  He's young and good looking and will appeal to Wimmen voters for 3.

All the Demodopes need to do is pair him with the right Veep.  A Black Woman would be good, I suggest Oprah Winfrey.  ;D

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Offline Nearingsfault

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I'd vote for him in a heartbeat compared to anyone I've seen you guys put up there in the last one primaries and main show. He speaks well, seems human, is not a fossil, can actually pull off a baseball cap and shows some respect for the process...The boomers will have less sway this time, the millennials are 4 years older and pissed.They rightly see every other western country with health care and subsidized or free education with no higher levels of debt then the US and feel cheated. You've tried to shake things up to the right its about time you try the same on the left... It will be fun to watch.

I tend to agree with you NF.  Not to mention a few other factors.

He raises a LOT of money for 1.  Money buys you votes.  He'll wipe the floor with Trumpovetsky in a debate, for 2.  He's young and good looking and will appeal to Wimmen voters for 3.

All the Demodopes need to do is pair him with the right Veep.  A Black Woman would be good, I suggest Oprah Winfrey.  ;D

RE
Debating is dead. If someone like him beats Trump it will be on social media sound bites. He seems adept at it. I don't think you counter Trumps gimmicks with more gimmicks so maybe run on actual ideas and plans not fear and hatred? Just a hope. Your news gets very tiring a competent boring guy would be a welcome relief.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

 

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