AuthorTopic: Election Errata  (Read 117366 times)

Offline RE

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🗳️Senate Republicans' 2020 nightmare scenario just got more likely
« Reply #1080 on: July 09, 2019, 12:59:16 AM »
One man's nightmare is another man's Wet Dream.  :icon_mrgreen:

RE

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/08/politics/kris-kobach-roy-moore-senate-2020/index.html

Senate Republicans' 2020 nightmare scenario just got more likely

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 4:35 PM ET, Mon July 8, 2019


Roy Moore takes another shot at US Senate seat

(CNN)Of the 22 seats Senate Republicans have to defend in 2020, only two -- Colorado and Maine -- voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Which means that if Republicans win only the seats they hold in the states President Donald Trump carried in the last presidential race, they hold their Senate majority. (Democrats need to net three Senate seats if they win the White House and four if they don't in order to retake control of the chamber following 2020.) That prospect seems entirely doable -- especially when you consider that one of the 12 seats Democrats have to defend next November is in Alabama, where Trump won by 27 points in 2016.

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Right? Hello?
Meet Kris Kobach and Roy Moore.

Both men are running for the Senate as Republicans -- Kobach in Kansas, a candidacy he made official on Monday, and Moore in Alabama. And both men, if they wind up as the Republican nominees in their respective states, have a very real chance of losing a general election to a Democrats -- despite the heavily Republican nature of both states.
Which would be a stunning blow to Senate Republicans' majority math and would amount to the ultimate cutting-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face move for a party which has proven to be skilled at self-sabotage -- especially in the Senate in recent elections. And while neither Kobach nor Moore starts their races as prohibitive favorites, it's not all that hard to see one or both of them winding up as the nominee.
Start with Kobach. A controversial former state party chair and secretary of state in Kansas, Kobach returned from a short stint as the chair of President Trump's ill-fated election fraud commission to run for governor in 2018. He narrowly edged appointed Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican primary and went on to lose the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly -- the first GOPer to lose a statewide race in the Sunflower State in nearly a decade.
Now, Kobach is back -- seeing an opportunity created by the retirement of longtime Sen. Pat Roberts in 2020. Due to his name ID statewide and his past support from Trump -- "if he loses, I'll bring him into my administration in two seconds," the President said of Kobach in October 2018 -- Kobach is a force to be reckoned with in the still-forming GOP primary. Which, many Republicans worry, could put a Senate seat in jeopardy in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate race since 1932(!).
"L-O-S-E-R," David Kensinger, campaign manager for Roberts and former Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, said in a text message to CNN when asked about Kobach's candidacy, a swipe at a spelling error on Kobach's filing forms.
"Kansas Republicans deserve a nominee who can win," said the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, in a statement.
The situation is equally nightmarish for Senate Republicans with Moore in Alabama. Moore is a two-time chief justice of the state Supreme Court (he was removed from the office both times) who lost a seemingly can't-lose 2017 special election for the seat of former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R). Moore fell to Democrat Doug Jones in that contest amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against Moore, who several women said pursued relationships with them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s. (Moore denied all allegations and brought a lawsuit against three of the women; it remains in the legal system.)
That 2017 race is instructive -- and not just because Moore lost. It's actually his victory -- over then-appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the 2017 primary -- that has to really worry Republicans looking to preserve their Senate majority. In that special election primary, everyone from Trump to McConnell endorsed Strange -- warning that nominating the controversial Moore could jeopardize Republican chances of holding the seat in the general election.

    CNN's Chris Cillizza cuts through the political spin and tells you what you need to know. By subscribing to The Point newsletter, you agree to our privacy policy.

Didn't matter. And in fact, there's a case to be made that the establishment lining up behind Strange made Moore's point for him -- that he and his supporters were a David, challenging the big, bad political Goliath.
Which brings us back to the 2020 map. And Moore. And Kobach.

As I said above, neither should be considered the favorite in their respective races. But neither can they be dismissed. Both have active followings among the most conservative elements of the GOP. And in a fractured primary -- which is already developing in Alabama and could happen in Kansas -- their blocs of support might just be enough to win them the nominations. Which is a cataclysmic situation for the likes of McConnell.
Now, none of this may come to pass. Kobach and Moore might well flame out. They might watch the establishment effectively coalesce to keep them from winning. But the very fact they are both now in and running is bad news for Senate Republicans. Very bad news.
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🗳️ CNN will hold live draw for 2020 Democratic debate lineup
« Reply #1081 on: July 09, 2019, 08:04:03 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/08/politics/cnn-democratic-debate/index.html

CNN will hold live draw for 2020 Democratic debate lineup

By Kate Sullivan, CNN

Updated 10:04 AM ET, Mon July 8, 2019

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/ycUuOBiPKqQ" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/ycUuOBiPKqQ</a>

New CNN poll shows Harris and Warren rise after debates 02:51

(CNN)CNN will conduct a live draw to determine which night each candidate will appear in the highly anticipated Democratic presidential primary debates airing later this month on the network.
Dana Bash, Don Lemon and Jake Tapper will moderate the Democratic National Committee-sanctioned debates over two nights, July 30-31, from Detroit, said a network spokesperson. Both nights will air live exclusively on CNN and CNN en Español. The debates will also be simulcast on CNN International.
CNN's Debates will also stream live without requiring log-in to a cable provider, exclusively to CNN.com, CNN's apps for iOS and Android and via CNNgo apps for Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire, Chromecast, and Android TV.
The draw to determine the lineup for each night will air live on July 18 in the 8 p.m. ET hour on CNN, said the network spokesperson, who noted additional details of the draw will be released in the coming days.

More than 20 Democratic candidates are vying for their party's presidential nomination, but pre-established qualifying rules state only 20 candidates, split across two nights, are eligible to participate. Candidates must either register 1% support in three qualified polls or have 65,000 unique donors to their campaign, with a minimum of 200 different donors per state in at least 20 states to qualify.
The 20 candidates invited to participate in one of the July debates will be notified by the DNC and CNN on the evening of July 17. The draw to determine placement will occur the next night.
As the race for the Democratic nomination tightens, the debate offers the presidential hopefuls a chance to make their case to a vast national television audience and engage directly with their opponents.
The fight to take on President Donald Trump in 2020 tightened significantly following June's Democratic presidential debates held in Miami and hosted by NBC. Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over the field shrunk to a narrow 5 points, and Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts made steep gains, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Harris, who dominated the stage on the second night of the first debate and criticized Biden over race and school busing, is surging both nationally and in Iowa, according to two post-debate polls.
The debate will come shortly after Robert Mueller is expected to testify publicly before the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees. Mueller, former special counsel for the Justice Department and former director of the FBI, delivered a report to DOJ after spending nearly two years investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Mueller's highly anticipated testimony comes as an increasing number of lawmakers, including some 2020 candidates, are calling for an impeachment inquiry to begin against the President. Democrats are split on how to handle the issue, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposing impeachment proceedings but an outspoken progressive bloc of the party calling for a tougher stance to be taken against Trump.

The CNN debate brings the Democratic candidates to the battleground state of Michigan, which Trump won in 2016.
A total of 12 presidential primary debates are planned during the 2020 election cycle. Six debates will be held in 2019, and the other six will be held in 2020.
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🗳️ Elizabeth Warren Is Putting the Consultant Class on Notice
« Reply #1082 on: July 15, 2019, 01:11:35 AM »
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/elizabeth-warren-is-putting-the-consultant-class-on-notice/

Jul 09, 2019

Elizabeth Warren Is Putting the Consultant Class on Notice



Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. (Charles Krupa / AP)

When Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., announced in February that she was running “a different kind of [presidential] campaign,” one that swore off high-dollar fundraisers and personal phone calls with wealthy donors, the Democratic establishment was skeptical that she could pull it off. There were internal concerns too: Warren’s finance director resigned after she decided not to pursue big donations during the primary.

The campaign’s finances improved however, with $19.1 million donated in the second quarter. As Politico reports Tuesday, forgoing traditional fundraising is just one way that “Warren is defying the traditional playbook for running a modern presidential campaign.”

There’s no outside polling firm or plans to marshal resources for a massive television ad campaign. In fact, campaign staff tells Politico that “it is shunning the typical model for producing campaign ads, in which outside firms are hired and paid often hefty commissions for their work. Instead, Warren’s campaign is producing TV, digital and other media content itself, as well as placing its digital ad buys internally.”

“Campaigns offer a chance not only to tell people what kind of president you’ll be, but to show it,” Joe Rospars, Warren’s chief campaign strategist, told Politico, adding, “She’s running her campaign the way she intends to govern: willing to question existing power structures, making decisions grounded in evidence, and always fighting to build something more progressive, more inclusive, more joyful — and more democratic — than what came before.”

This approach, Politico reporter Alex Thompson explains, “is a rebuke of the consultant-heavy model of campaigns — an often lucrative arrangement in which the people advising campaigns invariably tell candidates that the best political strategy is to buy what they sell, namely TV ads and polling.”

According to Thompson, the ascension of Rospars to chief campaign strategist also “signals that the campaign is prioritizing smartphones and computers over TV.”

If Warren makes it to the general election, Thompson writes, “a large swath of Democratic consultants, including some whom Warren has used in past campaigns, could be relegated to the sidelines.”

Members of the consultant class on both sides of the aisle aren’t convinced Warren has made the right choice. GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who worked for Jeb Bush in 2016, told Politico, “Quality has cost. I’d rather have Jim Margolis [who is working for Kamala Harris] on my side and pay some fees than ‘Larry’ in a cubicle in-house who is learning media buying.”

Rufus Gifford, the finance director for former President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, told The New York Times in March: “If Warren says, ‘I can’t raise enough money, so my way to win is through an aggressive field operation because I have fired-up volunteers,’ well, Bernie and Beto can say, ‘O.K., well, we can do both.’ ”

Warren’s campaign aides counter that their in-house approach makes the campaign nimbler. In interviews with Politico they point to Warren’s response after Alabama passed legislation that almost entirely banned abortion. In just two days, her campaign had a plan to codify Roe v. Wade on the federal level, plus ads, graphics, social media content and a strategy to garner traditional media coverage for the plan. She was even able to reach out to abortion rights groups personally.

If she makes it to the general election, Warren’s rejection of consultants could be game-changing. Tim Lim, a Democratic consultant and partner at the strategic consulting firm NewCo, told Politico that if Warren’s robust in-house operations are successful, “This will change the way that campaigns are run.”

Ilana Novick
Blogger / Editorial Assistant
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Re: Election Errata
« Reply #1083 on: July 27, 2019, 11:35:15 AM »


Tulsi Gabbard Sues Google Over Censorship, Co-Sponsors “Audit The Fed” Bill

https://themindunleashed.com/2019/07/tulsi-gabbard-sues-google-censorship.html
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

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https://www.vox.com/2019/7/30/20747889/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-one


Ten Democratic presidential hopefuls onstage ahead of the first round of the second Democratic primary debate in Detroit on July 30, 2019. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

3 winners and 4 losers from the first night of the July Democratic debates

Winner: Elizabeth Warren.
By German Lopez, P.R. Lockhart, Dylan Matthews, Zack Beauchamp, and Ella Nilsen Jul 30, 2019, 11:26pm EDT
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The second set of Democratic debates kicked off on Tuesday night, and the opening round revolved around one big question: Should Democrats focus on big policies to dramatically change our economy and our country — or on narrow policies that are just enough to beat Donald Trump? Should they go all in for Medicare-for-all and a Green New Deal, or more narrowly seek a public option and some funding for clean energy?

There were candidates on the side of big change (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders) and those vocally urging caution (Steve Bullock, John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper), and those trying to straddle the two sides or rise above the fray (Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Marianne Williamson).

But by the end of the night, one candidate became the most notable advocate for ambition, and one had been selected, seemingly by the moderators, as the voice of moderation. Read on to see which candidates ended the night ahead, who fell behind, and where the primary discussion on everything from health care to climate change goes from here.
Winner: Elizabeth Warren

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) had a starkly different debate night performance than last month’s NBC debate, where she also landed on Vox’s winners list. Rather than staying above the fray, she dove right in, engaging in robust debates on health care and immigration policy with moderates like Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and former Maryland Rep. John Delaney. Warren again cemented her status as the Big Plans candidate, most notably during a memorable exchange with Delaney that may well have been the sound bite of the night.

“I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the United States to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for,” she grumbled.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks during the first of two Democratic presidential primary debates on July 30, 2019.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks during the first of two Democratic presidential primary debates on July 30, 2019. Paul Sancya/AP

Notably, one person she didn’t tussle with was Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Warren and Sanders were placed next to each other at center stage, and acted seemingly in concert on Team Medicare-for-all, parrying the jabs from the moderates flanking them. If Sanders was the team’s bad cop for blasting moderates, Warren played the role of good cop well. She made a personal appeal for Medicare-for-all by bringing up the story of Ady Barkan, a progressive activist with Lou Gehrig’s disease who has had to rely on crowdsourcing to fund his medical care.

Warren wasn’t just teaming up with Sanders because she likes him; she played the moment to her advantage. While Medicare-for-all is first and foremost Sanders’s idea (he “wrote the damn bill,” after all), Warren’s arguments appeared to define the conversation in the health care debate. And beyond Medicare-for-all, she pressed her signature ideas, most notably a wealth tax on the top earners in America — which prompted more sparring with Delaney.

Warren’s impassioned argument for Medicare-for-all may help her make inroads with Sanders’s supporters, a key group she’s making a play for in the primaries. On Tuesday morning, Warren’s team rolled out a list of endorsements that included progressive Rep. Raúl Grijalva, a high-profile Sanders supporter in 2016. Her debate performance was yet another a powerful appeal to Sanders’s base.

—Ella Nilsen
Winner: John Delaney

This might be the only time that John Delaney finds himself on one of these lists, in either the winner or loser category, so he should savor it. He did not actually dominate the debate in terms of time spent talking, but it sure felt that way as the CNN moderators, especially Jake Tapper, kept turning to Delaney to explicitly make the case against Sanders’s and Warren’s ambitious plans to remake the way America provides health care, energy, education, and much more.
Democratic presidential hopeful former Representative from Maryland John Delaney speaks during the first round of the second Democratic primary debate on July 30, 2019.
Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney speaks during the first round of the second Democratic primary debate on July 30, 2019. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

It was a role that someone was inevitably going to claim, and one that several other candidates, like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, attempted to claim over the course of the night. But Delaney had, before the debate, been very direct in critiquing the Green New Deal and Medicare-for-all, so when it came time for moderators to prompt debates over those ideas, he got called on first, and got to have back-and-forths with both Warren and Sanders.

Did he come out ahead in those back-and-forths? Not especially: Warren’s denunciation of Delaney (that his campaign is about “what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for”) was effective and probably the most memorable moment of the night. And the main competitor for Delaney’s niche — the pragmatic, vaguely centrist candidate who can beat Trump and make American government boring again — wasn’t onstage Tuesday night. It’s Joe Biden, and he will have a near monopoly on the centrist lane Wednesday night.

But night one was, overall, more centrist-heavy, and Delaney’s ability to dominate that corner of the debate and take the argument to Warren and Sanders was notable. It’s not clear that there’s a lane for a non-Biden centrist, but there certainly isn’t a lane for six of them. Considering how little an impression his campaign has made to date, Delaney made a respectable case Tuesday night that he can own that lane.

—Dylan Matthews
Winner: the Republican Party

If you were Donald Trump or another Republican lawmaker running for reelection in 2020, you probably had a good time watching tonight’s debate. Several of the major issues were framed by the moderators in terms Republicans would love: Will you take private insurance from Americans to give them Medicare-for-all? Will you raise taxes on the middle class to do it? Will you decriminalize illegal border crossings and give unauthorized immigrants free health care? Are Democrats going too far to the left?
President Trump speaks at a “Make America Great Again” rally at Minges Coliseum in Greenville, North Carolina, on July 17, 2019.
President Trump speaks at a “Make America Great Again” rally at Minges Coliseum in Greenville, North Carolina, on July 17, 2019. Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Some of the candidates took such questions in stride, successfully navigating what will certainly be Republican talking points come the general election. But some of them had a hard time — with Warren and Buttigieg, for example, getting bogged down in explaining how Americans will pay less on net under their Medicare-for-all plans as their health insurance premiums go down even if their taxes go up. It felt more like a dodge than a straight answer to a simple question.

Moreover, many of these ideas are simply unpopular. A recent survey by Marist found that replacing people’s private insurance with Medicare-for-all, giving health insurance to unauthorized immigrants, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings are all opposed by most Americans.

There is a case for using primary elections to shift the Overton window on some topics, from health care to guns. But it’s also true that this can be politically risky. As Vox’s Matt Yglesias argued, it may be better for Democrats to run on more popular progressive ideas — many of which, like a $15 minimum wage, a wealth tax, and a Green New Deal, would still transform America.

Tuesday night’s debate spent much time on unpopular Democratic proposals instead. Expect some of tonight’s moments to appear in GOP attack ads in the future.

—German Lopez
Loser: the policy needs of black voters

The second Democratic debates are taking place in Detroit, a city that is roughly 80 percent black and has the fourth-largest black population in the United States. Yet as candidates gave their opening statements on Tuesday night, they had very little to say about the issues affecting the thousands of black voters living in the city — or the millions of black voters living in the Midwest.

It marked the beginning of a debate that did not truly begin a discussion of race until more than an hour and 40 minutes had passed, and only briefly touched on the candidates’ specific plans about how they would help black voters concerned about things like the economy, health care, policing, and education.

To be fair, candidates did call for things like a new Voting Rights Act, spoke of the impact of police violence on communities of color, and had a brief discussion about reparations and white nationalism. They also spoke of President Trump’s recent attack on Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings and the city of Baltimore, forcefully calling the attacks racist.
Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT), wait for their presidential candidate at Clinton College, a historically black college in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on June, 23 2019.
Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wait for their presidential candidate at Clinton College, a historically black college in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on June, 23 2019. Logan Cyrus/AFP/Getty Images

But the candidates’ debate over the needs of black voters and other voters of color were hardly given as much time as other topics discussed Tuesday night. (For instance, health care got almost 30 minutes of time, but candidates failed to discuss issues like maternal and infant mortality and how it disproportionately affects black women and their babies.) And the fact that these issues weren’t covered until they were raised in a short, separate discussion gave the impression that the needs of black voters are separate from the needs of Midwestern voters. It’s an odd distinction given how many black voters live in the Midwest, many of them in rural areas.

At roughly one-fifth of the Democratic electorate, black voters are a group that candidates will need to win the nomination, and they want politicians to have a serious debate about the issues affecting their lives and communities. The candidates — and the debate moderators — would do well to remember that.

—P.R. Lockhart
Loser: CNN

Everything the host network did tonight baffled me. Much of the debate, moderated by CNN’s Jake Tapper, Don Lemon, and Dana Bash, seemed like it was designed to confront Democrats with Republican arguments and create a spectacle at the expense of substantive debate.

For starters, CNN spent the first 10 minutes on a patriotic display and then cut to commercial. Bam, 10 minutes gone.

After one-minute opening statements by all the candidates, Tapper pivoted to health care — but repeatedly interrupted the candidates to enforce an absurdly short time limit, making it impossible for candidates to give full and interesting answers on some difficult policy questions.
CNN moderators Don Lemon (center), Dana Bash (left) and Jake Tapper (right) stand for the national anthem ahead of the first round of the second Democratic primary debate on July 30, 2019.
CNN moderators Dana Bash, Don Lemon, and Jake Tapper stand for the national anthem ahead of the first round of the second Democratic primary debate on July 30, 2019. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

And the line of questioning Tapper pursued was notable for its GOP-friendly framing. He focused on trying to get Democrats to admit that they would increase taxes on the middle class to pay for their health care plans and to stoke a conflict over whether the party had gone too far left.

This wasn’t just a Tapper problem. Bash and Lemon asked candidates to respond to shallow Republican arguments — Bash’s repeated questions about whether expanding America’s welfare state would “incentivize” unauthorized immigration was a particular lowlight — and aggressively enforced the time limits.

It wasn’t all bad. Things got a bit better after the second commercial break — the conversation about climate change, in particular, was more substantive than the meager offerings we’ve had on this issue previously. But only a bit.

And throughout the night, the moderators dedicated an inexplicable amount of time to John Delaney and Steve Bullock — two candidates who are polling at a single percentage point combined — in order to try to instigate a series of fights between them and the more progressive frontrunners. Per a New York Times count, these two also-rans both spoke for more time than Amy Klobuchar, a better-polling moderate candidate, and Beto O’Rourke, who has nearly three times as many supporters in the poll averages as Bullock and Delaney combined.

This debate could have been much better — more illuminating, less chaotic, and more representative of what’s actually going on the race. It’s intrinsically hard to successfully produce a debate with 10 candidates onstage; it’s even harder when the network pushes for more heat than light.

—Zack Beauchamp
Loser: Beto O’Rourke

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) already had a bad first debate back in June, between his awkward Spanish and several moments where he just looked outclassed on immigration, an issue he was supposed to really stand out on. Tuesday’s debate was his chance to make up for that lackluster performance.

In the end, he just didn’t. He had no breakout moments. He was never at the center of the conversation, as Sanders, Warren, and even Delaney were. At times, it was easy to forget that O’Rourke was even onstage.
Democratic presidential candidate former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke takes the stage at the beginning of the Democratic Debate on July 30, 2019.
Democratic presidential candidate former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke takes the stage at the beginning of the Democratic debate on July 30, 2019. Scott Olson/Getty Images

It did not have to be this way. O’Rourke’s rising star moment came when he ran against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 and came surprisingly close to winning in a fairly red state. He was tremendously charismatic, drawing big crowds and potentially lifting up Democrats in other races across the state. And toward the beginning of the year, O’Rourke polled at third place in the presidential race, behind Joe Biden and Sanders.

Since then, O’Rourke has collapsed in the polls — now standing in sixth place. First, his campaign launch was bogged down by several controversies, including a statement in which O’Rourke suggested he was destined to become president and a joke in which he indicated that he puts all the work of raising his children on his wife. He seemingly tried to relaunch his campaign, but then he had a bad first debate.

O’Rourke needed a big moment to change all that tonight. He didn’t get it.

—German Lopez
Loser: foreign policy

A brief interlude on immigration aside, this was largely a debate about health care: about how bold to be on health care, about whether Medicare-for-all would lead to Trump’s reelection or defeat.

That’s understandable — health care is an important issue! It’s an issue that voters care a lot about, and one where sparring among candidates has been more explicit and heated. But the monomaniacal focus on health care left little time for something crucial: the rest of the world.

Foreign policy is, arguably, the single most important issue voters should care about in evaluating these candidates. It’s one of the few domains of policy where Congress has very little role and the presidency has nearly untrammeled authority. The president can use military force without Congress; she can damage or reconfigure alliances without Congress; she can condemn or sanction adversaries without Congress. All that is a far cry from presidential authority on, say, health care, where the president can do almost nothing to make Medicare-for-all a reality without Congress.
A man watches a television news screen showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch, at a railway station in Seoul, Korea, on July 31, 2019.
A man watches a television news screen showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch at a railway station in Seoul on July 31, 2019. Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty Images

Moreover, foreign policy is a rare issue where Democrats have deep internal divisions. The party contains a dovish anti-authoritarian division, well represented in the Warren and Sanders policy staffs, that is skeptical of America’s alliance with Saudi Arabia, supportive of Palestinian self-determination, and eager to remake international economic institutions along more egalitarian lines.

It also contains advisers representative of what the Obama administration liked to deride as “the Blob,” sympathetic to the Gulf states and Israel and more eager to use force. The party contains Joe Biden, who wanted to invade and partition Iraq, and Bernie Sanders, who voted against the invasion.

So did these issues come up in the debate at all? Barely. No time was spent on Saudi Arabia, none on China’s rising military influence, and almost none on Iran. North Korea got a minute at most, and discussion of war and peace was limited to a few comments on withdrawing from Afghanistan and adopting a policy against nuclear first use (the latter debate was, bizarrely, limited to Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock). No debate was had on the use of drones to kill abroad. Pete Buttigieg’s promise to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in his first year was the only major policy news on foreign affairs all night.

It was a huge wasted opportunity, one that left the foreign policy cleavages in the party unexplored and unexplained for viewers.
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🗳️ Biden Trips Up With Latest Gaffe on the Campaign Trail in Iowa
« Reply #1085 on: August 10, 2019, 12:00:30 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/79J0-kawj8A" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/79J0-kawj8A</a>
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Beto should stay in the POTUS race as long as possible before shifting gears to run for TX Senator.  He gets tons more publicity as a POTUS candidate.  But the paper is right, his chances of winning the nomination are slim & none right now.

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https://www.foxnews.com/media/houston-chronicle-beto-orourke-senate-2020-presidential-race

Texas newspaper that endorsed Beto O'Rourke for Senate implores him to end White House bid
By Louis Casiano | Fox News


A Houston newspaper that endorsed former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke during his failed run to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz last year has implored him to pull out of the race for the White House.

In an editorial published over the weekend, the Houston Chronicle said O'Rourke should shift gears and "come home."

"Drop out of the race for president and come back to Texas to run for senator," the piece said. "The chances of winning the race you’re in now are vanishingly small. And Texas needs you."

TRUMP TRASHES BETO O'ROURKE, TELLS HIM TO 'BE QUIET' AHEAD OF EL PASO VISIT
El Paso native Beto O'Rourke reacts to mass shootingVideo

The board said it would rather see him challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is seeking a fourth term.

"It wouldn’t be easy," it said. "You’d have to fight for it, and do better than you did against Cruz. But a lot has changed since 2018 — you had a lot to do with that — and Trump is no longer rock-solid in Texas. Neither are the Republicans who support him."

The paper cited O'Rourke's comments -- what the piece called a "human moment" -- following the Aug. 3 mass shooting in El Paso,  where 22 people were killed by a gunman targeting Mexicans inside a Walmart. He was asked by a reporter whether he felt President Trump could do anything to bring down the atmosphere of hate toward immigrants.

BOOKER AND BETO BLAST TRUMP FOR RETWEETING CONSPIRACY THEORY LINKING EPSTEIN'S DEATH TO CLINTONS

“Um, what do you think?” O’Rourke responded. “You know the s--- he’s been saying. He’s been calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals. I don’t know. … Like, members of the press -- what the f---? It’s these questions that you know the answers to …”

“Is that language presidential? Not normally," the Chronicle editorial board wrote. "It certainly isn’t the normal fare for an editorial page in the Sunday paper, either, with or without the asterisks. But it struck us as so unscripted, so unexpected that its offense was somehow washed away.”
Beto O'Rourke's campaign has been downhill since live streaming his trip to the dentistVideo

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In its 2018 endorsement of O'Rourke, the Chronicle said the former West Texas congressman's "command of issues that matter to this state, his unaffected eloquence and his eagerness to reach out to all Texans make him one of the most impressive candidates this editorial board has encountered in many years."

O'Rourke's momentum since entering the crowded Democratic field has slipped in recent months. The Real Clear Politics national primary poll average has him at 2 percent, tied for sixth with Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J.
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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/politics/beto-orourke-john-hickenlooper-2020-senate-democrats/index.html

How failed presidential candidates could hold the key to a Democratic Senate majority in 2020
Chris Cillizza


Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 12:16 PM ET, Wed August 14, 2019
If only one can win the nomination, why do so many run?

(CNN)One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Never has that idiom been truer than right now for Democratic campaigns -- both those for president and those tasked with trying to win back the Senate majority in 2020.

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See, candidates like former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock are not, well, prospering in their presidential bids at the moment. O'Rourke, who entered the 2020 contest to huge fanfare back in March following his near-upset of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, hasn't been able to find any real momentum since then. Hickenlooper's attempt to be a moderate alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden has fizzled. And Bullock got into the race so late that he's struggled to be a factor in Iowa or anywhere.
O'Rourke takes less than 3% in the Real Clear Politics average of all national polling in the presidential race -- which is roughly 10 times the support that either Bullock or Hickenlooper are averaging.

It seems unlikely that any of that trio -- with the possible exception of O'Rourke, although even that looks like a long shot now -- is going to have their desired arc to the top of the presidential field. BUT, all three of them would be absolutely top-tier Senate recruits for Democrats trying to build momentum for a push to the majority next fall. (Senate Democrats need to pick up four seats to retake the majority if they win back the White House and five seats if Trump gets reelected.)
Take Colorado. Freshman Sen. Cory Gardner is widely regarded as among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country. (Colorado is one of two states where a Republican senator is running for reelection in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Maine, where Susan Collins is running for a fifth term, is the other.)
While there are already several credible Democrats in the race, there's no question that Hickenlooper, a two-term governor and two-term Denver mayor, would be a clear favorite for the nomination if he decided to run. While Hickenlooper might not clear the field of other candidates, his candidacy would certainly thin the herd. A poll conducted by the Democratic polling firm of Garin-Hart-Yang Research and released last month showed Hickenlooper with a 50+-point lead over his nearest Democratic rival in a hypothetical Senate primary matchup. And given Gardner's vulnerabilities, Hickenlooper would have to be considered an even-money bet (or better) to be the next senator from the state come 2021.
Which is why, at least according to the New York Times, Hickenlooper is thinking about switching races. "Officials who have been in discussions with the Hickenlooper campaign said Tuesday that the former two-term governor is giving serious consideration to switching to the Senate race but stressed that a final decision has not yet been made," wrote the Times' Reid Epstein on Tuesday night.
Hickenlooper has acknowledged previously that he spoke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) about the possibility of a challenge to Gardner. And in an interview with CNN's Ana Cabrera this past weekend, the former governor said that the time was coming when he would need to assess his political future.
"You know, at a certain point I just become stubborn," Hickenlooper said. "And I actually haven't sat down and figured out when that is. I probably need to do that maybe this weekend. But at this point I keep very focused on what I'm doing every day with my team to try and be the next president of the united states. And I don't rule anything out. But I don't -- right now I'm not even thinking about it."
Neither O'Rourke nor Bullock are even that willing to acknowledge the possibility that the Senate might be a very attractive fallback plan if their current presidential aspirations don't work out. But that hasn't stopped plenty of other people from talking about that prospect.

    CNN's Chris Cillizza cuts through the political spin and tells you what you need to know. By subscribing to The Point newsletter, you agree to our privacy policy.

In an op-ed that ran over the weekend, The Houston Chronicle editorial board wrote this of O'Rourke's future:
"So Beto, if you're listening: Come home. Drop out of the race for president and come back to Texas to run for senator. The chances of winning the race you're in now are vanishingly small. And Texas needs you."
There's zero indication from O'Rourke that he is even considering that possibility, of course. And like in Colorado, there is already a field of Democrats in Texas running for the chance to take on Republican Sen. John Cornyn. But again, like in Colorado, there's no question that if O'Rourke decided to run for Senate he would be the de facto nominee. After all, this is a candidate who raised more than $80 million and came within a few points of upsetting an incumbent Republican senator in the Lone Star State less than two years ago.
Then there's Bullock -- and Montana. At the moment, Senate Democrats are, roughly, nowhere in the effort to put together a serious challenge against freshman Republican Sen. Steve Daines. Bullock, who is in the middle of his second term as governor, is probably the only Democrat in the GOP-leaning state who could make Daines sweat.
Except, at least so far, Bullock has made clear he's not interested. "His answer on this question has been consistent and it is the same today. Governor Bullock is not running for Senate," a Bullock spokeswoman told Politico in May.
Here's the thing about politics that you have to remember: Circumstances change. And so do minds. While O'Rourke has already qualified for the next Democratic National Committee-sanctioned debate in September, neither Bullock nor Hickenlooper have -- and neither are likely to, either. That makes it very hard to keep making the case to your donors and your staff that you are a viable candidate for the presidential nomination. And while O'Rourke has more support and more money than either Hickenlooper or Bullock, if he doesn't start moving up in the polls in a concerted way sometime soon, he, too, will have to face the hard choice of what his best, most viable political future looks like.
Senate Democrats are content to wait -- for now. The deadline for a candidate to file to run for the US Senate in Texas isn't until December -- and in Colorado and Montana it's not until next year. So there's time.

And Senate Democrats know that if they could convince one or maybe even two of that trio to end their presidential bids and start Senate campaigns, it would make a real difference in the majority math. At the moment, the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign handicapping site -- rates only two of the 22 Republican seats up for re-election in 2020 as "toss-ups." (Those seats are Colorado and Arizona.) A Hickenlooper candidacy would clearly strengthen the party's chances in Colorado, while runs by Bullock or O'Rourke would turn races currently ranked as "solid Republican" by the Cook Report into real contests where both national parties would have to spend significant sums of money to win.
To be clear: Senate bids by Hickenlooper, O'Rourke or Bullock are no guarantee that Democrats would win either those specific states or the broader majority come November 2020. But it would sure improve their chances.
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🗳️ The Memo: O'Rourke looks to hit reset button
« Reply #1088 on: August 15, 2019, 04:29:58 AM »
This should be a fun speech.  ;D

RE

https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/457483-the-memo-orourke-looks-to-hit-reset-button
 
The Memo: O'Rourke looks to hit reset button


Beto O’Rourke will give a major speech Thursday morning in an effort to infuse his presidential campaign with new life  — and it could be his last chance.

The former Texas congressman has struggled to gain traction since entering the Democratic race in March, never recapturing the excitement that surrounded his Senate bid against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year.

But O’Rourke has been catapulted back to national attention in the most tragic circumstances imaginable — the Aug. 3 mass shooting in his hometown of El Paso that left 22 people dead.

O’Rourke came off the campaign trail when the shooting happened, and has been a powerful voice of support for the victims.

He has also brought new vigor to his criticisms of President Trump, whom O’Rourke holds culpable for employing incendiary rhetoric and creating a toxic atmosphere.

The sole suspect in the shooting appears to have posted an online manifesto in which he expressed anger about an “invasion” of Latino immigrants — a term Trump has also used.

At one point, O’Rourke profanely lambasted members of the media for, as he sees it, failing to “connect the dots” between Trump, racism and violence.

“You know the shit he’s been saying,” O’Rourke told reporters, referring to Trump. “He’s been calling Mexican immigrants ‘rapists’ and ‘criminals.’ I dunno, like members of the press, What the f**k?… It’s these questions that you know the answers to…..He’s not ‘tolerating’ racism, he is promoting racism.”

The moment went viral, as did another encounter O’Rourke had with a witness to the shooting. O’Rourke gave the man, identified as Sean Nixon, his personal cell phone number and the two embraced.

Such moments can always be viewed through a cynical lens but, in this case, there is a widespread sense that O’Rourke’s feelings are sincere.

Keir Murray, a Democratic strategist in Texas, said, “I thought his response came across as very genuine. He was in a unique position to offer the response that he did because it is his city. It is a fine line and I think he largely walked it pretty well, and he did demonstrate some of his strengths.”

Robert Shrum, who was chief strategist for 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry, agreed.

“I think the reason he was so powerful was that he was genuinely expressing what he believed. I don’t think it was a political strategy,” Shrum said. “There is a kind of cynical reflex that says, ‘A-ha! This is a tactical move or a strategic move.’ I don’t think it was.”

The key political question now is whether O’Rourke’s campaign can gain some much-needed momentum as the mass shooting fades from the headlines.

NBC News on Wednesday reported that his speech in El Paso on Thursday morning would revolve around three key themes: racism, white supremacy and guns. It will also mark O’Rourke’s return to full-on campaign mode.

An Economist/YouGov poll released on Wednesday gave some reasons to be optimistic for O’Rourke’s camp, even as it also made clear the scale of the challenge he faces.

The poll put O’Rourke at five percent support among Democrats nationally. That was his best result in any major national poll since mid-June and put him very close to South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (6 percent) and California Sen. Kamala Harris (8 percent). Both candidates have attracted a lot more positive media attention than has O’Rourke.

On the other hand, O’Rourke’s share of support in that poll still showed a huge gulf between him and the frontrunners, with former Vice President Joe Biden on 23 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on 20 percent.

More broadly, some political experts fear that O’Rourke has never provided a compelling enough rationale for his candidacy, nor shown the qualities that would differentiate him from his rivals.

“His ability to emote and convey empathy and an air of commitment to his politics, is certainly one of his strengths,” said James Henson, the director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

“But one of the things that we’ve seen is that is not enough, at least in this field, given that he is not the only one able to do that — and that there are more established candidates in the field.”

Skeptics also note that O’Rourke has struggled at the highest political level.

His performances in both of the televised Democratic primary debates so far have been uninspired. His fundraising, hugely impressive during his Senate race, was lackluster in the second quarter of this year, when he brought in about $3.6 million. By contrast, Buttigieg topped the field with $24.8 million.

Previous attempts at rebooting his campaign, such as one in May that included an appearance on ABC’s “The View,” have fallen flat.

Henson said of the aftermath of the El Paso shooting “one hesitates to call something like that an ‘opportunity,’ but it has given him an unfortunate opportunity to re-present himself to the public."

But, he added, “I am a little skeptical that it is enough to do much more than potentially raise his name recognition a bit. But, as always, it depends what he does with that.”

O’Rourke will begin answering that question on Thursday morning.
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🗳️ Hickenlooper ends 2020 presidential bid
« Reply #1089 on: August 15, 2019, 08:02:43 PM »
1 down, 22 to go.

RE

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/politics/hickenlooper-presidential-campaign/index.html

Updated 2:32 PM ET, Thu August 15, 2019
Hickenlooper ends 2020 presidential bid


(CNN)Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ended his bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday, releasing a video in which he nodded at the possibility of a future Senate run.
The announcement comes after three Democrats familiar with the matter told CNN on Wednesday that Hickenlooper was poised to drop out.
"Today, I'm ending my campaign for President," Hicklenlooper said in the three-minute video. "But I will never stop believing that America can only move forward when we work together."
He added: "A little over six months ago, I announced my run for President. In almost every aspect, this journey has been more exciting and more rewarding than I ever imagined. Although, of course, I did imagine a very different conclusion."

Hickenlooper, who struggled to break out of the crowded field of candidates, has not yet decided whether he will run for the Senate as party leaders have urged him to do, sources said. He did not make an announcement on that decision in the Thursday video, but acknowledged the possibility.
"People want to know what comes next for me. I've heard from so many Coloradans who want me to run for the United States Senate. They remind me how much is at stake for our country. And our state. I intend to give that some serious thought," the governor said. "I've been a geologist, a small businessman, a mayor, a governor and a candidate for president of the United States. At each step, I've always looked forward with hope. And I always will."
Hickenlooper's exit from the race leaves 23 other Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination.
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Re: 🗳️ Hickenlooper ends 2020 presidential bid
« Reply #1090 on: August 16, 2019, 03:12:37 AM »
1 down, 22 to go.

RE


Yeah, let's find a new captain for the Titanic!  (Or just let Trump go down with the ship of state??). :laugh:
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Re: 🗳️ Hickenlooper ends 2020 presidential bid
« Reply #1091 on: August 16, 2019, 03:36:12 AM »
1 down, 22 to go.

RE


Yeah, let's find a new captain for the Titanic!  (Or just let Trump go down with the ship of state??). :laugh:
AJ



RE
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https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-favorite-odds-2020-democratic-primary-1454706

Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden as Favorite to Win Democratic Party's 2020 Primary: U.K. Bookmaker
By Shane Croucher On 8/16/19 at 8:48 AM EDT
Video
2
Succession: Season 2 Episode 2 Promo | HBO
Current Time 0:23
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Elizabeth Warren Says America Should 'Never Elect A Man Like Donald Trump Again'


Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren speaks to supporters during a campaign stop and town hall at Toad Hill Farm in Franconia, New Hampshire, overlooking the White Mountains on August 14, 2019. JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren has overtaken Joe Biden as favorite to win the Democratic Party's 2020 primary, according to a leading British bookmaker. Biden, a former U.S. vice president and senator for Delaware, is leading the polls, but has generated headlines recently for repeated gaffes, a foible of his.

Warren, the current U.S. senator for Massachusetts, is polling around third or fourth place depending on the survey in a wide and diverse field of more than 20 candidates.

The bookmaker Ladbrokes said it now has Warren at 9/4 favorite to win the Democratic nomination in 2020. Biden slipped to 11/4. Joint third are Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent socialist, and the party's California Senator Kamala Harris. Both are on 6/1.

"It looks like the betting market is going a little cold on Biden despite his general lead in the polls," Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, told Newsweek. "Warren seemed to get a boost after the last set of debates and, in particular, seems to be performing well in Iowa."

One poll of the all-important Iowa Caucus by the little-known pollster Change Research, which conducts its surveys online, put Warren 11 points in front of Biden. This is a single poll and is likely an outlier. But there is evidence elsewhere of Warren's momentum in the race.

In a YouGov/The Economist poll this week of likely primary voters, Biden was the first choice candidate at 21 percent, putting him top. Close behind was Warren at 20 percent.

At the beginning of the campaign, Biden had a large double-digit lead over second place. And not all polls show that lead ebbing away.

A Morning Consult survey released on Monday put Biden at 33 percent, well ahead of Sanders at 20 percent, and Warren at 14 percent. The same poll showed an even stronger lead for Biden in early primary states Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Among these states, Biden was on 35 percent, Sanders was on 18 percent, and Warren was on 11 percent.


    Joe Biden Is Leading in the Polls, And He Has Donald Trump to Thank
    Iowa State Fair Candidate Livestream: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, More
    Biden, Sanders Both Trounce Trump in Head-to-Head Matchups, New Poll Finds

Despite their polling at low single digits, and even zero in some surveys, betters are still putting money behind entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.

"This still looks like a very wide-open race and political gamblers haven't given up on a couple of outsiders in Yang and Gabbard who continue to be well backed despite unpromising polling," Labrokes' Shaddick told Newsweek.
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🗳️ CNN's latest poll on 2020 Democrats
« Reply #1093 on: August 20, 2019, 07:08:04 AM »
I predict Bernie or Liz will throw all their delegates to the other one and run as Veep at the Convention.  Top spot will go to whoever has more delegates at the convention.

RE

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-08-20-19/index.html

Live Updates
CNN's latest poll on 2020 Democrats


By Harry Enten, CNN
Updated 9:28 a.m. ET, August 20, 2019

What we're covering here

    CNN released a new poll conducted by SSRS of the 2020 Democratic field after the second primary debates.
    Joe Biden's lead has expanded from our last poll, with him polling at 29% to Bernie Sanders' 15% and Elizabeth Warren's 14%. Harris has dropped from 17% to 5%.
    CNN's Harry Enten took a look at what this new poll means for the 2020 presidential race.

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by
GO DEEPER
Here's who has qualified for the September debates so far

By Grace Sparks and David Wright, CNN
Fact-checking 2020 candidates on gun control

By Holmes Lybrand, CNN
From a former disbeliever: Why Texas could go blue in 2020

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
A closer look at recent post-debate bumps in presidential polls

By Grace Sparks, CNN
Ranking the 2020 Democrats after the CNN debate

Analysis by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten, CNN
GO DEEPER
Here's who has qualified for the September debates so far

By Grace Sparks and David Wright, CNN
Fact-checking 2020 candidates on gun control

By Holmes Lybrand, CNN
From a former disbeliever: Why Texas could go blue in 2020

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
A closer look at recent post-debate bumps in presidential polls

By Grace Sparks, CNN
Ranking the 2020 Democrats after the CNN debate

Analysis by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten, CNN
28 min ago
Tldr: Biden recovers from post-first debate, while Harris drops

Our new CNN/SSRS poll shows the Democratic primary has mostly reverted back to where it was before the first Democratic primary debates. Joe Biden's at 29% now compared to 32% in late May and 22% in late June (following those first debates). Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is at 5% now, while she was at 8% in late May and 17% in late June.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are mostly stable at 15% and 14% respectively.

Pete Buttigieg, at 5%, is the only other candidate at 5% or above.

Here are a few other takeaways from the poll:

    Julián Castro got 2% support. That's his fourth qualifying poll for the September debates, which means he will appear on the stage next month.
    Warren, for now, cannot seem to appeal outside of her base of very liberal and white college educated base. She leads or is close to ahead with both groups, but well behind in others.
    Sanders, meanwhile, seems to have leveled off at 15%. He's been within 4 points of 15% in every national poll CNN has done since last October.
    Biden's support is 15 points higher among those age 50 and older than those under aged 50. It's 12 points higher among moderates/conservatives than liberals. His bases of support are underrepresented on Twitter.
    After the first debate, there were five candidates voters were interested in hearing more about than Biden and Sanders. Now, there's just one (Warren).

1 hr 16 min ago
Interest in non-Biden and Sanders candidates fades

One of the more interesting phenomenons in our poll comes from a question which asks potential Democratic primary voters the candidates they are interested in hearing more about besides the candidate they support.

Following the June debates, there was a lot of interest in candidates not named Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. At least 15% of voters said they were interested in hearing more about Cory Booker (17%), Pete Buttigieg (23%), Julián Castro (16%), Kamala Harris (30%) and Elizabeth Warren (24%).

Now take a look at these same candidates: Booker (10%, down 7 points), Buttigieg (13%, down 10 points), Castro (5%, down 11 points), Harris (18%, down 12 points) and Warren (20%, down 4 points).

Meanwhile, the same 15% and 16% continue to want to hear more about Biden and Sanders respectively.

It shouldn't be too surprising that a debate would shake things up. The first debate was the first time many voters saw these different candidates in action.

But our poll suggests that interest was just a passing fancy for now.

While we still have a long way to go until the first votes are cast, Biden and Sanders are holding onto their roughly 30% and 15% of the vote respectively.
1 hr 45 min ago
Bernie Sanders is here to stay

No one has had more consistency in our polling than Bernie Sanders. In every single CNN poll taken since October 2018, he's been within 4 points of 15% (his current vote share).

While Sanders' polling is certainly not in an upward swing, it's not going down either. His 15% is actually 1 point above his 14% in late June. This 15% base is largely mirrored in other national polling.

Part of the Vermont senator's stability is that his voters are with him on the issues. In our last two polls, he was the only one of the top polling candidates who did better among voters who prized issue agreement over electability. That marks a contrast with Joe Biden and Sanders' liberal rival Elizabeth Warren.

Another difference between Sanders' backers and Biden's and Warren's: Sanders' strength doesn't come from Democrats. He's at 21% among independents and just 12% among self-identified Democrats. Biden's and Warren's strengths are with self-identified Democrats.

Sanders' also have a unique demographic quality. They're young: he wins those under aged 50 in our poll, while failing to crack double digits with those 50 years and older.

Sanders' base is not large enough to win a Democratic nomination. It is, however, more than large enough for him to stick around. That's especially true with all the money he's raising.
1 hr 51 min ago
Kamala Harris couldn't recapture lightning in the second debates

Kamala Harris was off and running after the June debates. She hit 17% in our poll and 20% in Quinnipiac University's poll following her performance on the debate stage in Miami.

Now in our latest polls, Quinnipiac and we have her at 7% and 5% respectively.

The second debate in Detroit didn't cause most of Harris' drop. She was already down to 12% in a late July poll by Quinnipiac.

Still, the California senator seemed to be holding onto some of her first debate bounce coming into the CNN debates. I wrote at the time "why Kamala Harris needs another strong debate." That didn't happen.

Harris is now considerably weaker across the board. She dropped by over 10 points with whites and nonwhites. She declined by 9 points or more with those under the age of 50 as well those aged 50 and older.

Her biggest drop might have been among liberals. She went from 24% in late June to only 4% now.

Harris' decline is seen in other questions too. When asked which candidates they'd like to hear more about, 30% said Harris in late June. That was more than any other candidate. Now, only 18% say they want to hear more about Harris. That's slightly behind Elizabeth Warren, who clocked in at 20%.

For now, the polling puts Harris not in the first or even second tier. She's in a third tier with Pete Buttigieg.
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