AuthorTopic: The Trouble with Guy McPherson  (Read 12264 times)

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #60 on: April 03, 2016, 11:40:31 AM »
I've always said Guy is full of shit on his 2030 extinction timeline...but 2030, or 2130, or even 2230, is the blink of an eye when you're talking about this kind of phenomena. It takes a lot of time, and real famines and extinctions to turn around the kind of bad thinking this world runs on. I believe that by 2030 most people will see the problem, and more clearly than they want to. But even if we then radically change, en masse, it appears to me that would be too late to save most species.

Feedback loops are real. Methane clathrates are breaking down. A complete halt in using fossil fuels will result in CO2 RISING for a period of time, not sure how long, Some decades, I believe. Sequestering carbon shows some promise,which is why I'm studying it and intending to start doing it this year. Real life stuff. We'll see how it works out. I have lots of carbon lying around.

BTW, I recently surveyed the permaculture yahoo group here regarding biochar, and only a very few people, even in that world, have a clue about how it works. I was not encouraged.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #61 on: April 03, 2016, 11:57:15 AM »
Fortunately for us, it is possible to both increase quality of life and lower "standard of living".  And I'm not guessing on this. It's easy to demonstrate that this is so.  (But I can't do that in less than a book-length essay which I cannot write today.)


No need. I fully believe that to be true, and I support folks who are on the path to that way of life. I also support outlawing cars in the interest of keeping the human species going. But I'm in the minority on that.
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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #62 on: April 03, 2016, 12:29:16 PM »
Quote
I'm realising the whole peer review argument meme is bullshit and a shell game to obscure facts.  It is a tool in the toolbox of the paid trolls (not saying you are JRM) and we have now seen this diversion over and over and over again.  Science is theories based on facts and not how many 'likes' one can get from other members of the scientific establishment as if they were all on Facebook.
Now we get the truth from K-Dog

The hell with the research and facts we get from like students of the problem.  What I think is correct. Whose ideas I like and agree with are correct.

Whatever the other researchers think is a shell game to obscure facts and fuck up my reading of the tea leaves or that of others I think are correct.

Sure K-Dog, Sure.  Read you loud and clear.



Offline agelbert

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #63 on: April 03, 2016, 12:58:07 PM »
Thanks for digging that up and sharing it, G.O.

That was a sharing of crap.

Looked pretty good to me. Reasonable, accurate based on what I've seen from Guy.

Quote from: K-Dog


So now you are claiming expertise because you met the guy? Sounds about as silly as pretending you know anything about marijuana because you live in a copy cat state that lets stoners...get stoned?

Pretty thin K, pretty thin. You do realize that those of us who have a publishing history find college professors who haven't much, amusing?

Agelbert fills this forum with articles referencing  peer-reviewed science that backs up Guy's views...every fucking day. So much so that I can't read it all. Every responsible climate scientist says we have big problems. Your amusement or lack thereof regarding Guy McPherson's credentials has more to do with your biases than his.

"I refuse to prove that I exist," says God, "for proof denies faith, and without faith I am nothing."

"But," say Man, "the Babel fish is a dead giveaway, isn't it? It could not have evolved by chance. It proves you exist, and so therefore, by your own arguments, you don't. QED."
 
"Oh dear," says God, "I hadn't thought of that" and promply vanishes in a puff of logic."


 -- Douglas Adams, from "A Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy"


Well said, Eddie. And thank you for the hat tip.


I think JRM is on the side of angels, so to speak. He is simply concerned with what he perceives as the promotion of despair by Guy. Whether Guy knows it or not (and I think he does), he is doing a service for those of us who understand that piecemeal, incremental "solutions" to catastrophic climate change WILL NOT GOING TO CUT IT.

The facts are as painful for me to hear about, study about, and fact check, as they are for GO and JRM. I understand their point of view. But given there are so many bought and paid for fossil fuel industry propagandists doing the following (when they aren't claiming we are all going to die in the caves from lack of fossil fuels :evil4: while they accuse climate scientists of being "alarmist"  ;)) ,


a voice like Guy McPherson's is a breath of fresh air in a fossil fueler happy talk world of bullshit.

I posted this a few days ago on my channel in response to a cautionary note by JRM about Guy's pitch. JRM must have been miffed because he did not answer. I am posting it again in the spirit of objectivity and respect for the climate catastrophe facts and those, like K-Dog, Eddie and others here, that don't sugar coat them.


2016 Runaway Climate Change * Leading Scientist * Economy Collapse * Troubling


Published on Mar 4, 2016
Leading scientist lays out for you the connections. The only truth teller, Professor Guy McPherson.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YK3aVa6tMZE" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YK3aVa6tMZE</a>


Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction
Gerardo Ceballos,  Paul R. Ehrlich,  Anthony D. Barnosky,  Andrés García, Robert M. Pringle and  Todd M. Palmer   Author Affiliations

Science Advances 19 Jun 2015: Vol. 1, no. 5, e1400253 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400253
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253

About Gerardo Ceballos:

Professor Ceballos work has been diverse, and its impact clear. He started the Long Term Ecological Research Network Chapter in Mexico, and has the longest (22 years) population and community ecology study of small mammals in the Neotropics.

He proposed, for the first time, that prairie dogs were keystone species, which now is a well accepted fact and is being used as one of the main arguments for the conservation of prairie dogs and associated species in North America.

He has carried out the longest and more complete study on jaguars, and recently he finished the first jaguar census at a National scale, showing that there are roughly 4200 jaguars in Mexico. This pioneering work is leading to implement conservation actions to save this species from extinction.

Research Articles ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES



Agelbert NOTE: So, what exactly, is causing the unacceptably high rate of extinctions?   ???

Some think the factory style meat operations are more of a factor than CO2 pollution from fossil fuels. Of course Big meat and Big Ag are contributing factors in a fragmentation of human agency goosing extinctions. But there is simply no equivalence.

Here are the facts:


Extinctions ABOVE the background rate, are caused overwhelmingly as a result of habitat loss.

Habitat destruction is an important cause of known extinctions. As deforestation proceeds in tropical forests, this promises to become THE cause of mass extinctions caused by human activity.

What causes habitat loss?  ???

The above reference specifically FIRST mentions the food and habit needs.

Then it goes on to point out, how the activity, as a result of the increasing human population's needs, destroys wildlife habitat.
Yes, we humans have been going to town on wildlife with hunting, fishing and agricultural land, livestock, roads and cities for centuries. But it wasn't just the population that increased rapidly after 1800.


http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/weekly-data-atmospheric-co2.html

Although this study is limited to birds, and the study clearly states that they are not projecting the numbers to all species, I present it to you so you can see the difference between PRE-1800 extinction rates and POST-1800 extinction rates.

The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely.

Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are ≈100 E/MSY.
In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts.

Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands.

We predict a 21st century rate of ≈1,000 E/MSY.

Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats.

If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century’s end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

The CO2 pollution alone (never mind the plethora of other industrial pollutants being spewed 24/7 by coal burning power plants, chemical manufacturers, mining operations, drilling operations, fracking and heavy industry) has been proven to overheat the atmosphere, threatening land animals, increase the acidity of the oceans and also overheat them.

Unless the species in this 4C plus planet, that CO2 pollution GUARANTEES us, do not have specific needs that are localized, like the extremophiles, they are far more habitat loss threatened, (see: ALL vertebrates) by CO2 caused deforestation, desertification, acidification and degradation of arable land than from loss of habitat due to agricultural land and livestock. Ocean dead zones form fertilizer runoff are a drop in the bucket compared with the effect of acidification on mollusk shells.

Yes, if we cleaned up our CO2 polluting act, a rather tall order considering the technological difficulty of trying to lower the parts per million (PPM) count in the global atmosphere (The U.S. Navy does it on their submarines - and they DON'T have the technology to keep it lower than 7,000-8,000 PPM! - Image the cost of doing that in the entire atmosphere to get down to 280-290PPM. The technology Has not been invented.), humans would still be causing wildlife extinctions due to our agricultural and animal husbandry caused habitat destruction.

But without the CO2 pollution, the extinction rate drops well below the present Permian extinction rate.



I caution all about the reliability of the views of  Guy McPherson.  McPherson is way, way out on an edge -- well out beyond the views of most climatologists and other climate scientists.  I personally don't find him all that credible.  I do, however, think the climate crisis is very real and that we should all be taking giant strides, quickly, to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

Guy banned me from his forum years ago because I'm too much of a hopium person for him.  ;)

But I have a lot of college level science knowledge about the biosphere and all the interactions required to keep it viable. McPherson is extrapolating along a cause and effect horizon devoid of innovation or interruption of the present profit over planet wanton degradation of our biosphere. I understand, on a very technical and detailed level, that he is not making stuff up even though I, unlike him, DO have some hope for the future. Actually, I welcome his posts and videos because he scares the SHIT out of people.  ;D

JRM, people NEED to have the S H I T scared out of them NOW. I know you think Guy is crackpot. I read your back and forth with K-Dog.  K-Dog is an engineer and he fact checked Guy six ways from Sunday. I have fact checked the studies he references in his lectures too. I'm not a despairing fuck like many of Guy's followers but he is not talking hysterical bullshit, as you believe.

When you listen to him, just consider it a thought exercise. Forget his conclusions and carefully look at each and every positive (biosphere damage reinforcing) feedback mechanism he claims is being goosed into runaway mode. Everything he posted on that video is accurate, except of course, what he ASSUMES will happen in the future.

I assume we will get out of this somehow. But we must continue to weigh the evidence as long as it is peer reviewed and documented. Yes. Guy collects and collates the data with a bias towards futility and nihilism. That PISSES you off. Sorry, you do not understand human nature if you think he is going to get some huge following of suicidal crazies that will off themselves because they, like their leader, believe there is no hope.

JRM, the DANGEROUS people out there are the fossil fuel propagandists saying everything is hunky dory and we are just in a "bump" in the energy road now. Because of Corporate Fossil Fuel Industry Corrupted Government, our TRAJECTORY is FUCKED UP.

THIS is what our government is mostly about even WITHOUT considering the profit over planet MO the elites worship:

We are a banker constructed Imperialist nation, ruled by a consortium of global psychopaths, hell bent on destroying the very planet itself in their selfish quest for money, power and the control of all of us. At this rate the human race may not even be here for the 22nd century.

We need a RADICAL rediscovery of what it means to be a RESPONSIBLE being in harmony with the other beings in the biosphere that we need in order to survive and thrive. We are not there yet. The mindset of most of the people in power lacks this sine qua non requirement for the perpetuation of the human species.

I think there is hope. But it is not a sure thing. That's why I rant and rave for people to do the RIGHT thing.


« Last Edit: April 03, 2016, 01:05:03 PM by agelbert »
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Offline RE

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #64 on: April 03, 2016, 01:14:20 PM »
Fortunately for us, it is possible to both increase quality of life and lower "standard of living".  And I'm not guessing on this. It's easy to demonstrate that this is so.  (But I can't do that in less than a book-length essay which I cannot write today.)


No need. I fully believe that to be true, and I support folks who are on the path to that way of life. I also support outlawing cars in the interest of keeping the human species going. But I'm in the minority on that.

If you outlawed cars how would you get to the tooth biz?  How would the customers get there to have their teeth drilled?

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Offline agelbert

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #65 on: April 03, 2016, 01:17:06 PM »
Quote
I'm realising the whole peer review argument meme is bullshit and a shell game to obscure facts.  It is a tool in the toolbox of the paid trolls (not saying you are JRM) and we have now seen this diversion over and over and over again.  Science is theories based on facts and not how many 'likes' one can get from other members of the scientific establishment as if they were all on Facebook.
Now we get the truth from K-Dog

The hell with the research and facts we get from like students of the problem.  What I think is correct. Whose ideas I like and agree with are correct.

Whatever the other researchers think is a shell game to obscure facts and fuck up my reading of the tea leaves or that of others I think are correct.

Sure K-Dog, Sure.  Read you loud and clear.

GO,
I don't think K-dog is attacking good science or you. I'm sure he values the wealth of peer reviewed papers out there that are not gamed by the polluters. But even though the overwhelming amount of climate science studies documents points at the missing paddle up a fecal coliform creek, there is a small, but quite noisy (thanks to big oil money) "peer reviewed" amount of "climate science" that IS gamed.

I think you would agree with K-Dog and myself on that score, would you not?

Look at this chart from Exxon in 1981. THEY KNEW! MKing and the other propagandists do too. They just DON'T CARE!

A 1981 EXXON Graph:


Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." -- Aldous Huxley

« Last Edit: April 03, 2016, 01:33:43 PM by agelbert »
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Offline azozeo

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #66 on: April 03, 2016, 01:53:39 PM »
Guy's science is formulated from a gravity based Universe model.
This is why I don't waste my time chasing my tail around the dining room table.
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline agelbert

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2016, 02:24:50 PM »
Guy's science is formulated from a gravity based Universe model.
This is why I don't waste my time chasing my tail around the dining room table.

A gravity based view  ;D:
       





A more nuanced view :



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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #68 on: April 03, 2016, 02:50:28 PM »
Kdog yesterday u didnt know what peer review was and now youre calling it a social force and facebook. Thats like Guy objecting to people suggesting the future is survivable in more than 15 yrs because "well its patriarchal", in a podcast.

Guy is the one acting like science should be a social force. The very scientists he tries to use distance themselves from him, and when giving interviews he has to admit his predictions were wrong.  U can not say "so what" because in some very general sense guy could be right. Placing himself as counterpart to the chief climate science denialist Lord Monkton does not help.

Tell us what u mean about trump being irrational and social force, because it seems you are only following the opposite extreme of another one again there.



« Last Edit: April 03, 2016, 03:02:44 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline agelbert

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #69 on: April 03, 2016, 04:30:01 PM »
Kdog yesterday u didnt know what peer review was and now youre calling it a social force and facebook. Thats like Guy objecting to people suggesting the future is survivable in more than 15 yrs because "well its patriarchal", in a podcast.

Guy is the one acting like science should be a social force. The very scientists he tries to use distance themselves from him, and when giving interviews he has to admit his predictions were wrong.  U can not say "so what" because in some very general sense guy could be right. Placing himself as counterpart to the chief climate science denialist Lord Monkton does not help.

Tell us what u mean about trump being irrational and social force, because it seems you are only following the opposite extreme of another one again there.

I think this is pretty objective and science based, don't you?


And Trump is a cheap, vulgar fascist. He uses wedge issues as emotional hot button bullshit to avoid facts and objectivity in order to demagogue his way into power. It's an old formula. And Trump is far less polished than Hitler was in his pitch. If you support Trump because of your ideology, then you are being irrationally emotional and unscientific.  :emthdown:

To show how much Trump MUST rely on manipulated emotion and the irrational result that would give him the presidency, just read the following:

Quote
GOP pollster Frank Luntz thinks that terror attacks on the scale of Paris or Brussels could rescue the Donald Trump ticket from defeat in November.

http://tarpley.net/gop-operatives-eye-terrorism-as-possible-outside-event-to-save-republican-ticket/

It's the old 911 trick all over again. And that was learned from the Goebbels technique for getting people to fight a war against their OBJECTVE and SCIENTIFIC interests through MANIPULATION of IRRATIONAL EMOTIONS, by the way. IOW scaring the shit out of people with LIES and Synthetic Terror.  :evil4:
« Last Edit: April 03, 2016, 04:46:48 PM by agelbert »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #70 on: April 03, 2016, 05:22:27 PM »
Agb i dont know what that collage represents or how it relates to the points of guys critics. He does not get a pass on misrepresenting climate scientists because he is just on the right side.

I did not say i support Trump, but he is certainly not treated fairly so i asked what is the irrational social force. Calling him hitler is as much an exaggeration as human extinction by 2030.

Why did the hitler accusation start when he mentioned a wall instead of stalin who built such a wall? Hardly a councidence when its the  eastern europeans putting up border fences to keep out refugees right now, but we never liken him to mao or pol pot who have the right ideas despite being worse genocidal dictators.

Guys in ragged baseball caps not wanting to compete with unlimited illegal immigrants, for wages but will accept legal immigration are not irrational i can see their point.

Is needing a safe space on campus and action from the administration when u see "trump 2016" in chalk on the steps rational or nazi like?

Charging his campaign manager with assault for barely brushing a journalist, clearly contradicting her story of being yanked toward the ground rational or nazi like?

Exaggerating his statements and leaving out qualifiers made in the same breath rational or goebbels like?

Dressing as kkk to try and make it look like kkk support him... Reporting only that a "white victim" was punched by a trump supporter, not reporting the white victim was the fake kkk and the supporter was black. Not reporting him throwing out a real kkk... is all false propaganda.

Advertising 15$ hr to "protest" really provoke, including numerous instances of filmed physical violence by the so called protestors never reported rational?

Denying the democratic process looks much more intolerant and totalitarian to me.



 
« Last Edit: April 03, 2016, 05:42:37 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #71 on: April 03, 2016, 05:57:00 PM »
If you outlawed cars how would you get to the tooth biz?  How would the customers get there to have their teeth drilled?

I have a plan for me, not sure what the patients would do.

It would change healthcare demographics radically, but technically there would not be a loss of caregivers. I think dentists would have to spread out again,have a more local practice. It's not insurmountable.

We'd have to have mass transit to keep a more or less modern lifestyle. But that would be a lot better for the planet.

We won't outlaw cars, but they are being priced out of a lot of younger peoples' lives already. They may be taxed into extinction, that's another possibility.
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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #72 on: April 03, 2016, 06:05:13 PM »
Agb i dont know what that collage represents or how it relates to the points of guys critics. He does not get a pass on misrepresenting climate scientists because he is just on the right side.

I did not say i support Trump, but he is certainly not treated fairly so i asked what is the irrational social force. Calling him hitler is as much an exaggeration as human extinction by 2030.

Why did the hitler accusation start when he mentioned a wall instead of stalin who built such a wall? Hardly a councidence when its the  eastern europeans putting up border fences to keep out refugees right now, but we never liken him to mao or pol pot who have the right ideas despite being worse genocidal dictators.

Guys in ragged baseball caps not wanting to compete with unlimited illegal immigrants, for wages but will accept legal immigration are not irrational i can see their point.

Is needing a safe space on campus and action from the administration when u see "trump 2016" in chalk on the steps rational or nazi like?

Charging his campaign manager with assault for barely brushing a journalist, clearly contradicting her story of being yanked toward the ground rational or nazi like?

Exaggerating his statements and leaving out qualifiers made in the same breath rational or goebbels like?

Dressing as kkk to try and make it look like kkk support him... Reporting only that a "white victim" was punched by a trump supporter, not reporting the white victim was the fake kkk and the supporter was black. Not reporting him throwing out a real kkk... is all false propaganda.

Advertising 15$ hr to "protest" really provoke, including numerous instances of filmed physical violence by the so called protestors never reported rational?

Denying the democratic process looks much more intolerant and totalitarian to me.

What a posting Uncle! One of your best for sure.

Keep em coming Uncle Bob.   :emthup: :emthup: :emthup: :emthup: :emthup:

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #73 on: April 03, 2016, 07:10:48 PM »
Just cant help standing up for an underdog GO. I obviously dont have a vote but support  Bernie for putting the insurance industry and pharmacos on notice to be driven out of the industry like Jesus drove them out of the temple.
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Offline agelbert

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Re: The Trouble with Guy McPherson
« Reply #74 on: April 03, 2016, 07:22:40 PM »
Agb i dont know what that collage represents or how it relates to the points of guys critics. He does not get a pass on misrepresenting climate scientists because he is just on the right side.

I did not say i support Trump, but he is certainly not treated fairly so i asked what is the irrational social force. Calling him hitler is as much an exaggeration as human extinction by 2030.

Why did the hitler accusation start when he mentioned a wall instead of stalin who built such a wall? Hardly a councidence when its the  eastern europeans putting up border fences to keep out refugees right now, but we never liken him to mao or pol pot who have the right ideas despite being worse genocidal dictators.

Guys in ragged baseball caps not wanting to compete with unlimited illegal immigrants, for wages but will accept legal immigration are not irrational i can see their point.

Is needing a safe space on campus and action from the administration when u see "trump 2016" in chalk on the steps rational or nazi like?

Charging his campaign manager with assault for barely brushing a journalist, clearly contradicting her story of being yanked toward the ground rational or nazi like?

Exaggerating his statements and leaving out qualifiers made in the same breath rational or goebbels like?

Dressing as kkk to try and make it look like kkk support him... Reporting only that a "white victim" was punched by a trump supporter, not reporting the white victim was the fake kkk and the supporter was black. Not reporting him throwing out a real kkk... is all false propaganda.

Advertising 15$ hr to "protest" really provoke, including numerous instances of filmed physical violence by the so called protestors never reported rational?

Denying the democratic process looks much more intolerant and totalitarian to me. 

Well, you should watch the video that I posted above from Guy McPherson. The collage has screen shots with scientific data NOT obtained by him, but by scientists YOU AND I consider reputable. It is not objective on your part to assume that I would post a collage unrelated to McPherson's presentations.

Here's the video. Please watch it. I know you have issues with the patriarchy criticisms from Guy, but that has nothing to do with climate science or the data presented. If you and/or GO cannot take the time to watch it, then you are not being objective about Guy McPherson and should refrain from attacking those who defend the science. This should not be about Guy, but about the science presented, PERIOD.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YK3aVa6tMZE" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YK3aVa6tMZE</a>

And Stalin was as make of fascist as Hitler, so trying to make this about socialism versus capitalism is childish and irrational. All the smears directed at Trump have NEVER made it to the main stream media. so you are putting inordinate weight on internet mud slinging by characterizing them as "unfair" attacks.

UNFAIR attacks is what Sanders has had to deal with either from not giving him ANY press (while Trump and Hillary get press every time they cut a pretty fart), by low balling the grass roots support he has in this country, by calling him a racist (because he is from Vermont) and an AIPAC loyalist. And YEAH, UB, that HAS made the main steam press ROUTINELY from the start. But I don't see you shedding any tears for Sanders.

You are right that Trump hasn't been treated fairly; he has been BABIED too much by the bought and paid for media.

For you to claim the reverse is ridiculous as well as irrational.  :emthdown:
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
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