AuthorTopic: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant  (Read 241763 times)

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« on: March 06, 2012, 03:29:25 PM »

   
      
   
   
      
         
         
                     
                        
                           Cagey musher race-rest Iditarod strategies revealed
                        
                            
                        
                           
                              Zack Steer | Mar 06, 2012
                           
                           
                              
                                 
                                    
                                        Enlarge This Image
                                    
                                    
                                       
                                          Related
                                       
                                          
                                             
                                                
Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                   
Iditarod 2011: Takotna
                                                   
                                                   
Video: Over the Happy River Steps in Iditarod 2012
                                                   
                                                [/list]
                                             
                                          
                                       
                                    
                                 
                              
                              


                                 A conga line of dog teams stretched out early Tuesday morning between the Iditarod checkpoints of Rohn and Nikolai. The usual suspects -- Baker, Mackey, and Gebhardt -- were among the leaders, with more than 40 teams almost evenly spaced along the 40-mile straightaway that is the Farewell Burn.
                              


                                 Stop for more than a couple minutes to snack your dogs or check their booties, and you were likely to have a musher or two pass by. For up to 36 hours each year, this lonely and remote section of trail becomes a dog-team highway. About half of the top-30 teams stayed in the Rohn checkpoint to rest, another 15 or so decided to camp near the trail. 
                              


                                 If politics makes strange bedfellows, mushing makes for odd camping partners. I would have loved to hear the conversations and stories told between Mitch Seavey, Jeff King, Aliy Zirkle, Cim Smyth and Michelle Phillips as they camped together along Tin Creek, 20 miles outside of Rohn. I’m sure this group of highly skilled mushers does not gather for tea on a regular basis.
                              
                                 Frequent, short breaks
                              


                                 Individual musher strategies are starting to emerge based on run-rest schedules and the musher’s choices of resting stops. The last couple years some mushers have talked about “two runs to Rohn.” It didn’t happen this year due to the slightly slower trail. Almost all the teams ran to Rohn in at least three hops and a few copied John Baker’s 2011 strategy of four runs with more frequent, short breaks.
                              
                                 
                                    
                                       
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      The Iditarod's only five-time champion, Rick Swenson, crossing Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Lance Mackey keeps an eye on departing mushers while he prepares his team to leave Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A dog rests on Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Bucky Winkley takes his 1924 Ford Model T snow machine out for a ride on Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Jeff King relaxes during a rest stop at Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Lance Mackey prepares his team to leave Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Dogs in John Baker's team rest at the Puntilla Lake checkpoint on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      John Baker keeps an eye on Lance Mackey while putting booties on his dogs at Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      John Baker's dog Ripple takes advantage of every last second of sleep, even while getting fresh booties put on.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      The Iditarod's only five-time champion, Rick Swenson, approaching Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher heads out of Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher heads out of Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      DeeDee Jonrowe heads out of Puntilla Lake towards Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher and their team approaching Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher and their team approaching Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Sigrid Ekran puts fresh runners on her sled during a rest stop at Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      Sigrid Ekran puts fresh runners on her sled during a rest stop at Puntilla Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      DeeDee Jonrowe heads out of Puntilla Lake towards Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher heads towards Rainy Pass on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
                                                
                                                   
                                                      Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                   
                                                      Mar 06, 2012
                                                   
                                                      A musher and their team traverse Rainy Pass Lake on Monday, March 5, 2012.
                                                   
                                                      Loren Holmes photo
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                       
                                    
                                    
                                       
                                          PreviousPauseNext
                                    
                                 
                              
                              


                                 Jake Berkowitz is clearly employing Baker’s previous race plan by stopping almost three hours in each of the first three checkpoints. Baker recycled the same strategy this year, only he opted to rest outside Skwentna rather than at the busy, often-distracting checkpoint.  Baker’s plan relies on frequent, short rests in the beginning of the race. The idea is that it eases the dogs into their race schedule and makes them stronger toward the finish when the musher will drastically increase the run times by skipping checkpoints.
                              


                                 Opposite Baker’s plan is the “Neff scheme.” I remember watching the Looney Tunes cartoons on Saturday mornings, there was a little Terrier named Chester who constantly runs his mouth and bothers Spike the bulldog -- until Spike slaps him and says, “Ahhhh…shut up!” Eventually Chester saves the day and the bulldog becomes Chester’s lapdog. Neff’s plan is to stick on the heels of the fastest musher he can find (usually Mackey) and ride his or her coattails towards the finish, hoping he can pass them at the end. When he is not pestering them on the trail, he is usually peppering them with questions, stories and opinion at checkpoints.
                              


                                 The press love Neff; most mushers tolerate him. His chatter can be annoying as hell, but it works. Last month, Neff beat a talented Allen Moore team (which Aliy Zirkle is running in the Iditarod this year) to win the Yukon Quest by employing this exact strategy. Neff’s steady progress up the ranks in Iditarod finishes over the past five years is testament to his scheme’s success.
                              


                                 The trail has been relatively easy on dogs. Most teams have at least 14 still in harness and quite a few are still running the 16 they started with in Willow. The trail has also been very easy on mushers and their sleds. Usually, we hear the horror stories of the Happy River Steps, Dalzell Gorge and Post Glacier. Carnage typically comes in the form of broken bones, sled and egos. This year has been smooth mushing for almost every musher.
                              
                                 
                              


                                  
                              


                                 As of Tuesday afternoon, there have been no scratches and no significant injuries. Compare that to Iditarod 2007, when 15 teams were out of the race by the Rohn checkpoint. This race has been very kind. Still, there's more than 750 miles of challenging trail to go.
                              
                                 What to watch in the next day
                              


                                 Mushers are setting themselves up for their mandatory 24 hour rest, usually taken at the musher’s discretion somewhere between McGrath and Ruby. The typical strategy is to “race to your rest,” meaning taking a few long runs just prior to the extended break. After 24 hours, the teams should be ready to resume a race strategy. There are many factors mushers use to decide where to take their 24-hour layover. The choice has much less to do with how far into the race mushers have travelled and much more to do with how the runs after the 24 are set up regarding checkpoint distances, dog-dropping options and time-of-day run schedule.
                              


                                  
                              
                                 
                                    
                                       
                                           Enlarge This Image
                                       
                                       
                                          
                                             Related
                                          
                                             
                                                
                                                   
Photos: Iditarod 2012 -- Scenes from Puntilla Lake and Rainy Pass
                                                      
                                                      
Iditarod 2011: Takotna
                                                      
                                                      
Video: Over the Happy River Steps in Iditarod 2012
                                                      
                                                   [/list]
                                                
                                             
                                          
                                       
                                    
                                 
                                 


                                    Takotna is a very popular 24-hour sled-dog pit stop. Besides its well-known hospitality (every musher enjoys a steak and all-you-can-eat homemade pie table), the checkpoint is also popular due to its logistical advantages. The fact that it is just 20 miles from the next checkpoint of Ophir allows mushers the option to observe their dogs on the line -- perhaps seeing how a dog with a slight injury responds -- before committing to take such a dog on a long run, such as Ophir to Cripple. If you layover in Ophir, you had better choose your dogs wisely before starting the 75-mile trek to Cripple, otherwise you’ll end up with a speed-sapping dog or two in your sled.  
                                 


                                    Mushers also want to come out of their 24-hour rest at a time of day that is best for running -- not in middle-of-the-day heat. This means ideally they arrive at their chosen layover spot 4-6 a.m. or 4-6 p.m. Once the start differential is accounted for, mushers can depart at a good time of day. Most top mushers have packed supplies in advance that will allow them up to three checkpoint options for the 24-hour layover.
                                 


                                    Of course, this decision requires a high degree of mental math on the back of the runners tonight as mushers ponder where to stop. Add to the mix the cumulative effect of sleep deprivation on cognitive skills.
                                 


                                    If the mushers do the math wrong, they may find themselves in the wrong checkpoint at the wrong time of day.
                                 


                                    Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, is sitting out this year's race as wife Anjanette takes the kennel's team to Nome. He owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and 2 young boys. Zack will bring a competitive racer’s analysis to this year’s Iditarod coverage. Zack maintains a small kennel of racing sled dogs, who are much happier to be taking Anjanette (100 pounds lighter than Zack) to Nome this year. Follow Zack’s race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.
                              
                           
                        
                     
                  
      
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2012, 01:28:34 AM »

OK Poetry Lovers, the FFDR is REBORN!.  I am probably not going to bother migrating the posts from the "Musings from the Last Great Frontier" Thread, there were not that many over there to begin with and might as well start Fresh here.

For Newbies, the Frostbite Falls Daily Rant was the title I used for my blogging on TBP while I still had those priviledges on Jimbo Quinn's Blog.  In the future, all my dumbass blogging will go into this thread, hopefully worthy of Bullwinkle himself.

RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2012, 01:55:11 AM »
Also, before anyone else sticks it up, I'll drop on the Bullwinkle Assassinated Graphic :-)



RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline Surly1

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15301
    • View Profile
    • Doomstead Diner
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2012, 02:37:43 AM »
Excellent news.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2012, 01:18:18 PM »
I had a feeling you would like this Title :-)

Even better now since I can put up Peabody & Sherman Vids along with the Bullwinkle pics!

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/kpgJzlY9y8A" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/kpgJzlY9y8A</a>

RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline Surly1

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15301
    • View Profile
    • Doomstead Diner
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2012, 02:03:52 PM »
"We replaced a democracy with a monarchy based on primogeniture?"

Now THAT is some funny stuff!

And you are right about the name-- time to bring it back in its full glory. It was on one of those posts where I first encountered you, stepping as I did through the swamps of libertarian excess and hosing the Ron and Rand Paul off my boots . . .

I remember thinking at the time that this Jim Quinn must be a smart, highly self confident man to feature such a range of bloggers and viewpoints. This was before the Jekyll-Hyde thing became apparent, and he started rewriting posts he disagreed with.

Twerp.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2012, 03:38:06 PM »
"We replaced a democracy with a monarchy based on primogeniture?"

Now THAT is some funny stuff!

And you are right about the name-- time to bring it back in its full glory. It was on one of those posts where I first encountered you, stepping as I did through the swamps of libertarian excess and hosing the Ron and Rand Paul off my boots . . .

I remember thinking at the time that this Jim Quinn must be a smart, highly self confident man to feature such a range of bloggers and viewpoints. This was before the Jekyll-Hyde thing became apparent, and he started rewriting posts he disagreed with.

Twerp.

Ah, the Good Old Days....



RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2012, 04:11:01 PM »
I wonder if I should make a seprate thread just for the Hitler Parodies?

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/I0mhX9hpq3g" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/I0mhX9hpq3g</a>

RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2012, 09:39:24 PM »
Count this experiment a FAIL.  Its not maintaining formatting very well.  Back to the drawing board.

RE

Inside the Diner;
Doomstead Diner Blog
Hi Ho Poetry Lovers!

I'm just messing around here with SMF Code to see if I could get a nice little layout to work with here in the Daily Rant.  It's a bit tricky, but not impossible to do.  If you "quote" this post, you'll see how all the code is laid out.  You could actually use this same layout simply by pasting over the text I am now writing, substitute your own Pic or Vid, etc.
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/zoS_uV6KJ-s" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/zoS_uV6KJ-s</a>Going Ex-Pat

So, does this video encourage you to join Doug Casey in Argentina or Speedy Gonzalo Lira in Cheelay?

Not me.  Send Lawyers, Guns & Money!
« Last Edit: April 09, 2012, 09:54:21 PM by RE »
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2012, 12:41:04 AM »
Chat with Trit on TAE

OK, I gotta stop messing with code here and use the KISS Principle here on the Forum.  Laying out HTML is bad enough, BBcode is WORSE!  I'll just go with some basic floats and forget the stupid tables in BBcode, they don't work too good.

Anyhow, I am having a nice chat with Triv on TAE, which brings up some old questions we plow into all the time, namely whether our Illuminati Masters will be able to retain control through the collapse.  Anyhow, for my Rant tonight I'll just paste in my last reply to Triv, which is the only worthwhile thing I wrote tonight since I wasted my time messing with BBcode here in the forum.

I'm including the Bojangles and Shirley Temple Vid for no other reason than Entertainment  ::)

http://theautomaticearth.org/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=15&id=1952&Itemid=96#2150

 
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/UkoT-I5cyVs" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/UkoT-I5cyVs</a>
I'm not going to quibble about trying to fix a precise number to the very TOP of the Food Chain here, other than to say I think it is more than 100 but less than 10,000, for a 2 order of magnitude spread of possibilities. In any event in a world with 7B people, its a very small fraction that run the show and call the shots here.
 
In any group of such size, there are going to be factions with different agendas and priorities. This is not a uniform group by any means IMHO. The "battle" here at the moment is mainly at the Top, even though of course J6P is currently taking the biggest hit here in terms of wealth expropriation. Nevertheless, its the top players who are positioning themselves with respect to each other on the Chess Board.
 
To extend the Chess metaphor somewhat, imagine a board where all the Pawns have been wiped out. This basically is equivalent to eviscerating all the wealth of the Middle and Lower classes of society, leaving them with nothing. The game is not OVER though, because Bishops and Knights still cruise around the Chessboard looking to gain control of more squares. They only have EACH OTHER to fight at this point, the Pawns are gone from the game.
 
What I see occurring here as this game progresses is further Cannibalism at the Top of the Food Chain. What can be extracted from J6P is basically tapped out at this point, as I made the case to Ash, I don't think even Slavery of either the Debt kind or the explicit kind is a profitable venture anymore. If you cannot extract wealth from the Slaves, who is left to do that from? Only from each other really, so it is my belief that the Top of the Food chain here will Cannibalize each other, and quite rapidly really in Civilization terms once it gets going in earnest.
 
You say you believe these folks have such control that they will be able in the aftermath of this collapse to set up a new system, I do not think this is so. I often argue this point with my partner on DD Peter, who believes as you do that these folks can maintain control through the spin down. I think the control is wholly dependent on Conduits developed thRough the Industrial Era which upon collapse will make it impossible to run any type of Global System of control as exists now. I think they will fight each other and consume each other as there is No Honor Amongst Thieves. I believe their power will dissipate and diminish as Energy resource becomes net negative in EROEI.
 
I do not think that there is Zero Point Energy that will be accessed, or Abiotic Oil, though both might in theory exist. They are both plausible hypotheses, but not likely ones under the circumstances we see developing. It makes no sense to destroy your own habitat if in fact you did have access to either one of these possibilities. If they were accessible in the near future or even the present, then they could be used easily to maintain the kind of perpetual Dystopian Vison that Huxley and Orwell painted as likely so many years ago. If that POWER was available to use, I see no reason why Power Seekers such as the top group is would not access it and use it NOW.
 
I do not paint a rosy picture for the future, but neither do I think it is true that our current set of Illuminati masters, who are in many cases descended from long running familial lines can possibly maintain control of this spin down as it works its way inward.
 
In the end, they will LOSE, because the Meek Shall Inherit the Earth. Right AFTER the Meek get Very, VERY Angry.

 
RE
« Last Edit: April 10, 2012, 12:49:00 AM by RE »
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2012, 02:03:34 AM »
Audio from the S&P Pit in the 2010 Flash Crash.  About the best Audio EVER of a PANIC. Coming Again Soon to a Trading Floor Near You.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WrxlVjZJawQ" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WrxlVjZJawQ</a>

RE
« Last Edit: April 10, 2012, 02:05:25 AM by RE »
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline Surly1

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 15301
    • View Profile
    • Doomstead Diner
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2012, 03:39:18 AM »
Now THAT was pretty interesting. Most memorable call since Howard Cosell's "Down Goes Frazier!"

"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2012, 10:19:29 PM »
Audio from the S&P Pit in the 2010 Flash Crash.  About the best Audio EVER of a PANIC. Coming Again Soon to a Trading Floor Near You.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WrxlVjZJawQ" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WrxlVjZJawQ</a>

RE

Well, this turned out to be a pretty Prescient Video to put up last night considering the blowout in the Market today  8)

No Flash Crash yet, but below the 500 DMA is pretty nasty.  Here from Goldman via Zero Hedge:

Today's Carnage Through The Eyes Of Goldman
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2012 19:04 -0400

BondCopperExchange Traded FundGiltsNASDAQNew York Stock Exchange


Since Goldman continues to press clients into the worst trade recommendation in the firm's history (remember that once in a lifetime long equity, bond short? no? look here) it means that at least the Goldman version of Bruno Iksil who sits on the firm's prop desk (but only hedge for god's sake, don't go getting any ideas) is having a great time since he is on the other side across from Goldman's clients. Still, while we won't feel bad for them, it is always interesting to note what are the things that Goldman watches for during market wipe outs, such as today, the worst day of trading so far in 2012. So without further ado, here is Goldman's Tuesday roundup.

From GS sales/trading

•Stocks lower, again. Fifth day running. Europe is again the catalyst as the damage done there makes US violence look like a minor scrape. Italian bourses down almost 5%, and same goes for European financials. Spanish banks now back to last year’s lows and SX7E not too far from the same. Cash flow reasonably balanced, but ETF flow much better for sale – which follows notable buying of downside protection yesterday. Heavy flow clearing today – NYSE volumes 30% above 10, 20, and 30d average. Not the most relevant line, but SPX broke its 50d moving average. Not too far now from uptrend support drawn from the October lows. That comes in around 1350 (cash). SPX closes down 24 at 1359 (-1.71%). The DOW closes down 216 at 12716 (-1.65%). The NASDAQ closes down 56 at 2991 (-1.83%).
•The VIX up another 1.6 to 20.4. The VIX term structure flattened pretty significantly – today the front month VIX contract (Apr) closed less than 1 point above spot (compare to mid-Feb when front month VIX traded at a 5 point premium to VIX spot).
•Owned positions under significant attack in FX today, led by MXN. While USDMXN up 1.5% makes sense in the context of stocks down a similar amount, that damage was done prior to 10am EST when US equities started their decline. USDZAR too had already made an aggressive move higher. Contrast with AUD where losses were more modest. AUD in fact outperforms CAD (ie, AUDCAD higher), which is quite rare for such a serious risk-off day. Relative EUR outperformance even more significant / surprising / frustrating. EUR lower is the opposite of a pain trade, something of a pleasure trade – many winners and few losers as EURUSD trades lower.
•Another day, another rally for the US rates market.  The tone was set overnight as peripherals opened up weaker following the holiday weekend, and Spanish and Italian yields continued to push higher over the course of the day.  Bunds, Gilts and USTs all rallied in due course and ultimately the 2.02% resistance level in 10y USTs failed to hold.  Spreads also widened again, closing as much as 2.7bps higher in 10s.  While we saw better receiving over the course of the day from a variety of accounts, we also saw some stabs at reinitiating shorts at these levels from both levered accounts and real money.
•Copper the story in commodities today - $8088 was 3m copper’s 100 day MA and is now history and again on volume.  Some shorts squaring up late in the day given size of and volume behind this move and thus the potential for a snap back especially given the potential for further LME/SHFE covering that was seen last night. Other highlights - gold up 1.2% and silver up 0.8%, WTI down 1.5% and brent down 2.5%. In our new energy weekly we reiterate our long Sep12 WTI as we continue to expect the Seaway to debottleneck Cushing, with WTI-brent spreads narrowing in line with pipeline tariff economics.
•An active day in credit with two way flow from fast money accounts with some better buyers of protection. IG closed at 104.75 and HY closed at 94.75.
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Offline reanteben

  • Global Moderator
  • Waitstaff
  • *****
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2012, 12:05:35 AM »
so that's what it's like. what a great video.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 36742
    • View Profile
Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 12:36:25 AM »
Post I made tonight over on TAE.

http://theautomaticearth.org/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=19&id=2158&Itemid=96#2219

Nobody realizes just how much of their own behaviors are acculturated. In our society since Greed is so well rewarded and has been for a VERY long time, the assumption is that Greed is a fundamental and uderlying attribute of the Human Species. I do not believe this to be true.
 
Greed is one of many attributes Homo Sapiens can display, and it can be rewarded or punished right from birth really. Societies can develop in many different ways, and they have through the evoltuon of the species, but Greed Reward in its current form is a very recent development overall.
 
The Potlatch societies developed unde much different parameters in a time of great surplus relative to the total number of people inhabiting a given ecosystem. That they existed at all however demonstrates conclusively that Greed is not an inherent zHuman Behavior, but merely one which is learned in certai environments under a certain set of parameters. Once the society develops around that, its a very difficult Cancer to remove. It metasticizes quickly.
 
Of the people who discuss these questions with me, I tend to be in the minority overall, since I have great faith in the resilience of Human Nature and the ability of Good to Triumph over Evil. I look at fundamentals of human nature and at the parameters we live under, and I see that there are posibilities for change and for a Better Tomorrow. I just do not see that those changes will come without a massive dislocation in our current ways of living or without a massive die off of many currently walking the Earth.
 
Evil will not win this battle, not in the end, not IMHO. It is written, "The Meek shall Inherit the Earth". I don't buy that because I am a Christian or even a Biblical Scholar, I am neither. I believe it to be true because it is what I see in nature. Power Seekers eventually self immolate, their own Greed consumes them. The societies they build also self immolate eventually. The problem for all of us living here and now in this time frame is that we are at the end of a grand supercycle where Greed has consumed Mankind. When it goes down, and go down it will, it will nto be pretty at all. In the end though, I believe in my heart that some will emerge standing from the Zero Point, and it will not be the Illuminati, it will be some few of the Meek who see it through to the end of the dark days to come. It will take Luck and Planning, and probably the Finger of God to see you through, but I think it can be done.
 
It is my goal in writing as I do to encourage all not to Lose Hope, not to Give Up here. Yes, the immediate future is very bleak indeed. Not Hopeless though, not yet. It is only Hopeless if you GIVE UP Hope. I am not willing to do that, and I do not think once the Conduits fail that this Evil system can be perpetuated. It WILL come down, just as the Tower of Babel came crashing down. Wait for it. When it comes, you will KNOW it. Then is the once in a millenia CHANCE you have to make the CHANGE that we MUST make to survive as a species. It CAN be done.
 
RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
153 Replies
8017 Views
Last post March 28, 2019, 11:00:43 AM
by RE