AuthorTopic: Surviving Climate Change  (Read 1593 times)

Offline RE

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Surviving Climate Change
« on: May 16, 2016, 03:28:24 PM »
http://www.ianwelsh.net/surviving-climate-change/

Surviving Climate Change
2016 May 15
by Ian Welsh

The news is all bad. You may have seen this graphic already, but it’s worth meditating on.


Climate Trend from NASA

Yes, this year has been breaking records. Every single month has been the hottest on record.

There is a chance we’ve “broken out” from the trend, and will now see full operation of the vicious cycle.

I am going to suggest that readers start taking this into account in their personal lives. Figure out how climate change is likely to effect where you live. It isn’t always obvious or linear (for example, there’s a chance that Europe could enter a cold-free if the Gulf Stream shuts off, and it’s already lost one-third of its strength).

Effects will also include movements of people from the worst affected areas. Is where you are, or are going to be, one of the places they will flee to? Are you in a “global city” where the richer citizens may want an “insurance property” driving up real-estate prices even more?

What do you want to do about this for yourself, your family, your nation, and/or the world?  The answer can be “little to nothing,” but it’s worth thinking on. Pushing for residence requirements for real-estate ownership could save your house or condo, as increased prices will increase taxes. It could also make it possible for your children or other young people to live in the nicer cities where the good jobs are.

Where are the refugee camps going to be set up? Does your country have any realistic possibility of settling refugees fairly rather than in camps?

Are you, conversely, in a place from which people are going to have to flee?

Move before you are required to flee. Really. Take the hit necessary and get out, unless you’re old and without dependents.

Is your area going to run out of water? I recently visited San Antonio, and that city will probably run out of water in a couple decades. It might be able to import enough, but it might not. Water is going to be in short supply all through the south.

As shortages hit, violence will increase. Are you on good terms with the local violent authorities, whoever they are? Dean Ing, the science fiction writer and survivalist, moved to a small town and then made sure to become friends with the police chief and the local base commander.

Are you considering how to get, at least partially, off the grid? Could you eat or drink for a few weeks if there were disruptions? What about alternate heating or cooling arrangements? Do you have a “bugout bag” and a “bugout plan” if you have to leave suddenly? The very basics can be cheaper than one might think.

Some of this may be overblown: yet. But it’s worth thinking this stuff through and making what precautions you can. And remember the #1 rule of surviving bad times and disasters.

Friends and neighbours. Make sure you have friends, locally, and that your neighbours know and like you. People who are well-liked by a lot of people are far more likely to survive bad times than those who aren’t. And having really good friends wherever you may have to flee to, if it comes to that, is wise.

Start cultivating.
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Offline MKing

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2016, 04:10:11 PM »
I wonder how much of that trend was assembled in the same way that Hansen created the US warming trend?

One of the nasty little surprises inside the temperature trends is the way they are assembled. You can't find, probably because no one has built it, the correlation matrix used that sews together, corrects, adjusts, extrapolates and interpolates across large areas. And that matrix? The power it has? Oh my...

One of my earliest lessons in science was that when the answer is a result of a correction, adjustment, extrapolation, interpolation or change created by the scientist him/herself, it is time to throw a flag, come to a full stop, and begin a proctology exam of everyone involved. It was considered one of the most dangerous things you could do, and if you ever attempted it, then a proctology exam it was!!

Interesting that in the annals of climate science, I can find neither the ASA recommendation of the correction, adjustment, extrapolation, interpolation and correlation procedures used by the climate folks, nor the correlation matrix itself.

For the record, here is one, provided in a field of science I am more familiar with, so certainly climate scientists can't say that others don't stick to the strict methods of how such things are done, in order to not be exposed to such an obvious criticism.

Table 2

http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/774/
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Online Surly1

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2016, 09:46:42 AM »
I wonder how much of that trend was assembled in the same way that Hansen created the US warming trend?

One of the nasty little surprises inside the temperature trends is the way they are assembled. You can't find, probably because no one has built it, the correlation matrix used that sews together, corrects, adjusts, extrapolates and interpolates across large areas. And that matrix? The power it has? Oh my...

One of my earliest lessons in science was that when the answer is a result of a correction, adjustment, extrapolation, interpolation or change created by the scientist him/herself, it is time to throw a flag, come to a full stop, and begin a proctology exam of everyone involved. It was considered one of the most dangerous things you could do, and if you ever attempted it, then a proctology exam it was!!


Meanwhile, as Dan is enjoying his hobby of amateur proctology (his excuse, at least, for consorting with assholes), those damned amateurs at NASA are at it again.

New Orleans is sinking: New Nasa maps show the city and surrounding areas are dropping up to two inches a YEAR
  • The study was a collaboration of multiple scientific groups and covered the period from June 2009 to July 2012
  • Maps were generated with data from Nasa's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)
  • Bonnet Carré Spillway is sinking 1.6in a year, which is the area's last line of protection against springtime floods
  • Other factors include withdrawal of water, oil and gas, compaction of shallow sediments, faulting, sinking of the Earth's crust from the weight of deposited sediments and ongoing vertical movement of land covered by glaciers



As reported in the Golden Corral of Doom:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,7190.msg103823.html#msg103823
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 10:06:08 AM »
One of my earliest lessons in science was that when the answer is a result of a correction, adjustment, extrapolation, interpolation or change created by the scientist him/herself, it is time to throw a flag, come to a full stop, and begin a proctology exam of everyone involved. It was considered one of the most dangerous things you could do, and if you ever attempted it, then a proctology exam it was!!
Indeed!  My advisor at Caltech relayed to us the story of one physics dissertation defense he sat in on.   The assumption was made that the electromagnetic field in the room where the experiment was conducted was uniform.  One of the adjudicators asked if that was in fact the case.  The  doctoral candidate replied that it was not, there was a large motor in the next room which was putting out a substantial EM field.  The adjudicator asked why a correction wasn't made for that, and the student replied that it made the results impossible to calculate in a reasonable amount of time.

That was an acceptable answer.  His dissertation was approved.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline MattS

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2016, 10:06:59 AM »
I wonder how much of that trend was assembled in the same way that Hansen created the US warming trend?

One of the nasty little surprises inside the temperature trends is the way they are assembled. You can't find, probably because no one has built it, the correlation matrix used that sews together, corrects, adjusts, extrapolates and interpolates across large areas. And that matrix? The power it has? Oh my...

You are accusing the climate change folks of what, exactly? And your source of information to make that accusation is what, exactly?

Quote from: MKing
For the record, here is one, provided in a field of science I am more familiar with, so certainly climate scientists can't say that others don't stick to the strict methods of how such things are done, in order to not be exposed to such an obvious criticism.

Table 2

http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/774/

So you are implying that the geoscientists are doing a better job at explaining their work than the climate scientists? Fine. But that doesn't automatically allow the assumption that the climate scientists AREN'T doing their work just as appropriately.

Offline MattS

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2016, 10:16:36 AM »

New Orleans is sinking: New Nasa maps show the city and surrounding areas are dropping up to two inches a YEAR
  • The study was a collaboration of multiple scientific groups and covered the period from June 2009 to July 2012
  • Maps were generated with data from Nasa's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)
  • Bonnet Carré Spillway is sinking 1.6in a year, which is the area's last line of protection against springtime floods
  • Other factors include withdrawal of water, oil and gas, compaction of shallow sediments, faulting, sinking of the Earth's crust from the weight of deposited sediments and ongoing vertical movement of land covered by glaciers


Nice to see so many factors that have nothing to do with manmade climate change are involved. So the warmists get to claim the effect, even if their favorite scheme isn't the cause.

Sea level has been rising for thousands of years, right?



so that alone has been eating into New Orleans elevation, and then you throw in some of those other factors and presto...New Orleans has been sinking for quite some time. Even have the pictures of it, as this work was written like 25 years ago.

http://archives.datapages.com/data/gcags/data/042/042001/0857.htm

I wonder...why all the renewed interest in a known issue? Who might TPTB be looking to demonize now?




Offline Eddie

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2016, 11:23:37 AM »
"Warmists"?

One of these El Nino years soon, maybe this one, NOLA is quite likely to get blown completely off the map. Nothing to do with subsidence or thousand year trends in sea level rise.

I for one, will be truly sorry. I love New Orleans, and have a long personal relationship with the Crescent City, not to mention some family connections with the lower Mississippi delta. My in-laws are all buried high on a beautiful bluff there, overlooking the river. I expect my wife will want to have her ashes placed there too, although i doubt I'll be the one to do it.

I don't like the term global warming. It's a complete trivialization of what's going on with climate. But things do appear to be changing. I've lived long enough to see it here. It's obvious to anyone who tries to grow things.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online Surly1

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2016, 11:29:36 AM »

New Orleans is sinking: New Nasa maps show the city and surrounding areas are dropping up to two inches a YEAR
  • The study was a collaboration of multiple scientific groups and covered the period from June 2009 to July 2012
  • Maps were generated with data from Nasa's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)
  • Bonnet Carré Spillway is sinking 1.6in a year, which is the area's last line of protection against springtime floods
  • Other factors include withdrawal of water, oil and gas, compaction of shallow sediments, faulting, sinking of the Earth's crust from the weight of deposited sediments and ongoing vertical movement of land covered by glaciers


Nice to see so many factors that have nothing to do with manmade climate change are involved. So the warmists get to claim the effect, even if their favorite scheme isn't the cause.

Sea level has been rising for thousands of years, right?



so that alone has been eating into New Orleans elevation, and then you throw in some of those other factors and presto...New Orleans has been sinking for quite some time. Even have the pictures of it, as this work was written like 25 years ago.

http://archives.datapages.com/data/gcags/data/042/042001/0857.htm

I wonder...why all the renewed interest in a known issue? Who might TPTB be looking to demonize now?

Interesting, isn't it, how much "MattS" sounds like MKing?

Sockpuppet.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Surviving Climate Change
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2016, 02:35:44 PM »

New Orleans is sinking: New Nasa maps show the city and surrounding areas are dropping up to two inches a YEAR
  • The study was a collaboration of multiple scientific groups and covered the period from June 2009 to July 2012
  • Maps were generated with data from Nasa's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)
  • Bonnet Carré Spillway is sinking 1.6in a year, which is the area's last line of protection against springtime floods
  • Other factors include withdrawal of water, oil and gas, compaction of shallow sediments, faulting, sinking of the Earth's crust from the weight of deposited sediments and ongoing vertical movement of land covered by glaciers


Nice to see so many factors that have nothing to do with manmade climate change are involved. So the warmists get to claim the effect, even if their favorite scheme isn't the cause.

Sea level has been rising for thousands of years, right?



so that alone has been eating into New Orleans elevation, and then you throw in some of those other factors and presto...New Orleans has been sinking for quite some time. Even have the pictures of it, as this work was written like 25 years ago.

http://archives.datapages.com/data/gcags/data/042/042001/0857.htm

I wonder...why all the renewed interest in a known issue? Who might TPTB be looking to demonize now?

Interesting, isn't it, how much "MattS" sounds like MKing?

Sockpuppet.

A total sock puppet.  Look where the link goes.  Something to do with petroleum engineers.  The language resembles but that link really gives it away!
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