AuthorTopic: Renewable Energy Survey  (Read 22006 times)

Offline RE

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Renewable Energy Survey
« on: May 19, 2016, 11:24:28 PM »
Ugo published results of an informal survey on Renewables he handed out to "experts" in the field who are members of a discussion forum he participates on. His Results Blog is up now on Cassandra's Legacy.

There is only one question on his survey which I will reproduce for the Diner Renewable Energy Survey also.

Quote
The question is about  the possibility of a society not too different from ours (**) but 100% based on renewable energy sources, and on the possibility of obtaining it before it is too late to avoid the climate disaster. This said, what statement best describes your position?


1.  It is impossible for technical reasons. (Renewables have too low EROEIs, need too large amounts of renewable resources, we'll run out of fossil fuels first, climate change will destroy us first, etc.)

2. It is technically possible but so expensive to be unthinkable.

3. It is technically possible and not so expensive to be beyond our means. However, it is still expensive enough that most likely people will not want to pay the costs of the transition before it will be too late to achieve it, unless we move to a global emergency status.

4. It is technically possible and inexpensive enough that it can be done smoothly, by means of targeted government intervention, such as a carbon tax.

5. It is technically possible and technological progress will soon make it so inexpensive that normal market mechanisms will bring us there nearly effortlessly.

However, I would like to have a more detailed survey with more questions on this topic to be asked of the readership of the Diner, OFW, EU, r/collapse, r/futurology, r/renewables, r/samplesize etc etc etc.

If you have ideas for Questions to ask and Answer Choices for those questions, please drop them in this thread over the weekend.  I would like to publish the survey early next week when I cross-post Ugo's Results Blog.

You are not limited to strict single answer Multiple Choice, Choose Any and Ranking Order questions are possible as well as Open Text answer questions.

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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 02:06:34 PM »
Renewable Energy Survey Link
http://freeonlinesurveys.com/s/Wixv2RMd

The Renewable Energy Survey has already garnered a few responses, most with detailed text answers as well as multiple choice.  So far, the only place the link is up is in the commentary of Cassandra's Legacy. (and now the Diner Forum also)

Tomorrow, I will cross post Ugo's blog on the Diner and include the link to the Survey.  I will also get the link up on my Reddit Sub r/globalcollapse, and next Sunday I will put up an article on Renewables with the Survey link in it.

In order to get the maximum number of respondents, if you run a blog or have an email list of people who might like to fill out the survey, advertize the Survey link wherever you think it is appropriate.

Based on prior survey numbers, I should have enough responses in 2 weeks for a statistically valid survey, and I will publish preliminary results on the Diner at that time.  Full results will be made available if you include an email address with the survey.  No emails will be published or distributed.

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Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2016, 02:26:43 AM »


youtube-Logo-2gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Ugo Bardi



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Published on Cassandra's Legacy on May 19, 2016



cassandra_retouched



Discuss this article at the Energy Table inside the Diner



A poll among experts…and YOU TOO!



Take the Renewable Energy Survey HERE




 








Image source



I am reporting here the results of a small survey that I carried out last week among the members of a discussion forum; mainly experts in renewable energy (*). It was a very informal poll; not meant to have statistical value. But some 70 people responded out of a total of 167 members; so I think these results have a certain value in telling us how the experts feel in this field. And I was surprised by the remarkable optimism that resulted from the poll.



This is what I asked the members of the list



The question is about  the possibility of a society not too different from ours (**) but 100% based on renewable energy sources, and on the possibility of obtaining it before it is too late to avoid the climate disaster. This said, what statement best describes your position?



1.  It is impossible for technical reasons. (Renewables have too low EROEIs, need too large amounts of natural resources, we'll run out of fossil fuels first, climate change will destroy us first, etc.)



2. It is technically possible but so expensive to be unthinkable.



3. It is technically possible and not so expensive to be beyond our means. However, it is still expensive enough that most likely people will not want to pay the costs of the transition before it will be too late to achieve it, unless we move to a global emergency status.



4. It is technically possible and inexpensive enough that it can be done smoothly, by means of targeted government intervention, such as a carbon tax.



5. It is technically possible and technological progress will soon make it so inexpensive that normal market mechanisms will bring us there nearly effortlessly.



As I said, it was a very informal poll and these questions could have been phrased differently, and probably in a better way. And, indeed, many people thought that their position was best described by something intermediate, some saying, for instance, "I am between 4 and 5". Because of this, it was rather difficult to make a precise counting of the results. But the trend was clear anyway.



Out of some 70 answers, the overwhelming majority was for option 4, that is, the transition is not only technologically possible, but within reach at a reasonable cost and fast enough to avoid major damage from climate change. The second best choice was option 3 (the transition is possible but very expensive). Only a few respondents say that the transition is technologically impossible without truly radical changes of society. Some opted for option 5, even suggesting an "option 6", something like "it will be faster than anyone expects".



I must confess that I was a little surprised by this diffuse optimism, being myself set on option 3. In part, it is because I tend to frequent "doomer" groups, but also on the basis of the quantitative calculations that I performed with some colleagues. But I think that these results are indicative of a trend that's developing among energy experts. It is an attitude that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, but the experts are clearly perceiving the rapid strides forward of renewable technologies and reacting accordingly. They feel that there is a concrete chance to be able to create a cleaner world fast enough to avoid the worst.



I understand that this is the opinion of just a tiny group of experts, I understand that experts may well be wrong, I understand that there exist such things as the "bandwagon effect" and the "confirmation bias." I know all this. Yet, I believe that, in the difficult situation in which we find ourselves, we can't go anywhere if we keep telling people that we are doomed, no matter what we do. What we need in order to keep going and fight the climate crisis is a healthy dose of hope and of optimism. And these results show that there is hope, that there is reason for optimism. Whether the transition will turn out to be very difficult, or not so difficult, it seems to be within reach if we really want it.



(*) Note: the forum mentioned in this post is a private discussion group meant to be a tool for professionals in renewable energy. It is not a place to discuss whether renewable energy is a good thing or not, nor to discuss such thing as the incoming near term extinction of humankind and the like. Rather, the idea of the forum is to discuss how to make the renewable energy transition happen as fast as possible; hopefully fast enough to avoid a climate disaster. If you are interested in joining this forum, please write me privately at ugo.bardi(zingything)unifi.it telling me in a few lines who you are and why you would like to join. It is not necessary that you are a researcher or a professional. People of good will who think they have something to contribute to the discussion are welcome.



(**) The concept of a society "not too different from ours" is left purposefully vague, because it is, obviously subjected to many different interpretations.Personally, I would tend to define it in terms of what such a society would NOT be. A non-exhaustive list could be, in no particular order,

 




  • Not a Mayan style theocracy, complete with human sacrifices


  • Not a military dictatorship, Roman style, complete with a semi-divine imperial ruler


  • Not a proletarian paradise, complete with a secret police sending dissenters to very cold places


  • Not a hunting and gathering society, complete with hunting rituals and initiation rites


  • Not a society where you are hanged upside down if you tell a joke about the dear leader


  • Not a society where, if you can't afford health care, you are left to die in the street


  • Not a society where you are worried every day about whether you and your children will have something to eat


  • Not a society where slavery is legal and the obvious way things ought to be


  • Not a society where women are supposed to be the property of men


  • Not a society where most people spend most of their life tilling the fields


  • Not a society where you are burned at the stake if you belong to a different sect than the dominant one



 


Many other things are, I think, negotiable, such as having vacations in Hawai'i, owning an SUV, watering the lawn in summer, and more.


 



 



 



 





Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2016, 05:33:51 AM »
Transition to renewables is one thing but transition to sustainable food production in the new normal and the next new normal is just as important. The climate change is already well advanced. Australia has weather called drought here or there in this or that state every few years, but the hottest years globally on record all since 1998 coincide   with below average rainfall almost every year across the whole country which is a continent, since 1999. This year the west finally gets a reprieve due to el nino while the east gets localised flash floods but generally low rainfall. In the same period the African savannah of wildlife parks looks a lot more like a desert than it did in 1999. On the south american continent whats left of the amazon catches fire instead of being too moist. All these southerm hemisphere continents still have a lot of groundwater but that is not sustainable long term to replace the rivers.

 In the northern hemisphere the groundwater is close to depleted especially usa and china. India relies on snow melt from himalayas to rivers, becoming less. That all accounts for probably half the people in the world, not taking those who use their exports. The question needs to be whether we can transition to a far more water efficient food production and can it replace the total calories of the crops and livestock used now.  This is a more pressing problem than running out of coal, gas and oil.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 05:39:09 AM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline RE

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Renewable Energy Survey REMINDER
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2016, 02:30:51 PM »
We currently have a RENEWABLE ENERGY SURVEY up on the Diner Survey site.

Survey currently has 57 respondents, a very well educated group with mostly Masters level education and above.  Half from the FSoA, a third from Europe, 10% from Oz & NZ.  90% Male, Age demographic evenly spread out.

The Diners however are NOT well represented in the survey.  :(  Most of the respondents so far are from links I put up on Cassandra's Legacy & Reddit.  Get off your duffs and fill out the survey!

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Offline agelbert

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2016, 04:48:09 PM »
We currently have a RENEWABLE ENERGY SURVEY up on the Diner Survey site.

Survey currently has 57 respondents, a very well educated group with mostly Masters level education and above.  Half from the FSoA, a third from Europe, 10% from Oz & NZ.  90% Male, Age demographic evenly spread out.

The Diners however are NOT well represented in the survey.  :(  Most of the respondents so far are from links I put up on Cassandra's Legacy & Reddit.  Get off your duffs and fill out the survey!

RE

I dropped the survey link over at EchoWatch.  ;D
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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2016, 05:09:16 PM »
We currently have a RENEWABLE ENERGY SURVEY up on the Diner Survey site.

Survey currently has 57 respondents, a very well educated group with mostly Masters level education and above.  Half from the FSoA, a third from Europe, 10% from Oz & NZ.  90% Male, Age demographic evenly spread out.

The Diners however are NOT well represented in the survey.  :(  Most of the respondents so far are from links I put up on Cassandra's Legacy & Reddit.  Get off your duffs and fill out the survey!

RE

I dropped the survey link over at EchoWatch.  ;D

Thanks AG!  :icon_sunny: :emthup: :emthup:

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Offline Palloy

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Re: Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2016, 06:04:54 PM »
Quote
UB: ... with below average rainfall almost every year across the whole country which is a continent, since 1999.

I don't think that is correct. It is patchy, and the extremes are 50 mm/decade.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ[map]=rain&tQ[area]=aus&tQ[season]=0112&tQ[period]=1970


The temperature trend is more clear cut, but still patchy.



It doesn't seem to have any broad scale geographical reason.
Maybe by using more refinements (seasons?) on the web page you could get things to look clearer.
Maybe if they used median rather than mean it might look different.
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2016, 06:26:08 PM »
We currently have a RENEWABLE ENERGY SURVEY up on the Diner Survey site.

Survey currently has 57 respondents, a very well educated group with mostly Masters level education and above.  Half from the FSoA, a third from Europe, 10% from Oz & NZ.  90% Male, Age demographic evenly spread out.

The Diners however are NOT well represented in the survey.  :(  Most of the respondents so far are from links I put up on Cassandra's Legacy & Reddit.  Get off your duffs and fill out the survey!

RE

I dropped the survey link over at EchoWatch.  ;D

Thanks AG!  :icon_sunny: :emthup: :emthup:

RE

Glad to oblige.  :icon_mrgreen:

I just finished the survey and placed some nice rants in the remarks. I hope I give some fossil fuelers heartburn.   
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2016, 06:28:42 PM »
RE,
I'm getting the three dancing dots after I clicked on "finish" (for about three minutes now). What do you think I did wrong? ???

Do you think I put too much text in the remarks?  :icon_scratch:
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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2016, 07:07:19 PM »
RE,
I'm getting the three dancing dots after I clicked on "finish" (for about three minutes now). What do you think I did wrong? ???

Do you think I put too much text in the remarks?  :icon_scratch:

No idea there AG.

Try resubmitting with shorter comments.  I can filter out duplicates by email addy.

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Offline agelbert

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2016, 07:12:14 PM »
RE,
I'm getting the three dancing dots after I clicked on "finish" (for about three minutes now). What do you think I did wrong? ???

Do you think I put too much text in the remarks?  :icon_scratch:

No idea there AG.

Try resubmitting with shorter comments.  I can filter out duplicates by email addy.

RE

I took about 20 minutes to do it.  I'll try again tomorrow with shorter comments.
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2016, 07:19:56 PM »
Survey Respondents now @ 66.  :evil4:

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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2016, 07:23:45 PM »
RE,
I'm getting the three dancing dots after I clicked on "finish" (for about three minutes now). What do you think I did wrong? ???

Do you think I put too much text in the remarks?  :icon_scratch:

No idea there AG.

Try resubmitting with shorter comments.  I can filter out duplicates by email addy.

RE

I took about 20 minutes to do it.  I'll try again tomorrow with shorter comments.

What were your comments? I can check to see if they took at least partially.

I did check the email field, and I do not see your email addy in there, so it likely did not take.

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Offline RE

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2016, 07:27:29 PM »
RE,
I'm getting the three dancing dots after I clicked on "finish" (for about three minutes now). What do you think I did wrong? ???

Do you think I put too much text in the remarks?  :icon_scratch:

No idea there AG.

Try resubmitting with shorter comments.  I can filter out duplicates by email addy.

RE

I took about 20 minutes to do it.  I'll try again tomorrow with shorter comments.

What were your comments? I can check to see if they took at least partially.

I did check the email field, and I do not see your email addy in there, so it likely did not take.

RE

Also, if you save your text responses a .txt files, I can add them to the full database later.  So compose them in notepad and send to me as a PM.  You can write as much as you like this way.  Just no emoticons or BIG FONTS. lol.

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