AuthorTopic: Renewable Energy Survey  (Read 22512 times)

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2016, 04:27:30 PM »
Transition to renewables is one thing but transition to sustainable food production in the new normal and the next new normal is just as important.
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The question needs to be whether we can transition to a far more water efficient food production and can it replace the total calories of the crops and livestock used now.  This is a more pressing problem than running out of coal, gas and oil.
I believe we can, but NOT with the same small percentage of the population involved in agriculture.  I think we might be able to squeak by without "most people spend most of their life tilling the fields", but I suspect we will have to have everything come to a halt for a few weeks at planting time and harvest time while everyone who can pitches in.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2016, 04:42:41 PM »
Palloy, yes patchy , not every area every year but overall the past 16 yrs since 99 have been mostly below average if u factor every state. I doubt the north is drier, the west getting a lot more this yr than the new normal due to super el nino but at the same time the east is below average compared to the 20th century. In 2010-11 I kept count of it not raining for 7 months in Perth western australia, a very long dry spell.  A creek there that had waterwheels on it from long ago and people used to fish in now only flows when it rains. I forget where I read the years of the 21st century have been below average compared to the 20th, but this from the BOM u linked ;

"Long-term deficiencies also exist in southeastern and southwestern Australia over the 16 years since 2000, which has also been the warmest such period on record."

I guess if you averaged it out with the north there isnt a problem, but thats not where everyone lives.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2016, 04:56:01 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline agelbert

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Re: Is a 100% Renewable Energy World Possible?
« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2016, 06:12:46 PM »
The remarks I made on the survey are as follows. If you took the survey, you will understand where they were placed. I will not waste my time with the biosphere math challenged  and thermodynamics challenged hand wringing crowd that claims "we are all gonna die without fossil fuels".

The fossil fuel industry corruption of our government is the main obstacle, not thermodynamics.

The fossil fuel industry corruption of our government is the main obstacle, not thermodynamics.

Items 11 (draft animals) and 12 (human slavery) are non-solutions. Item 13 is exactly backwards. ONLY Renewable energy can enable us to survive.

I believe that if we don't use a 10 to 15 year phase out period for eliminating dirty energy use, about 3 billion will die unnecessarily.

2040 is my estimate of when the brown outs, etc. begin.

The cause of the lack of power available will be severe climate catastrophe infrastructure disruptions, not lack of energy if the centralized power based refinery product fossil fuel business as usual insanity continues. The recent one billion barrel crude oil basin discovery in the Falklands is proof.

Electric Vehicles (land and sea) powered by batteries charged with Renewable energy and buildings heated with Renewable energy are the key to destroying the fossil fuel industry polluting business model because 42% of refinery output is for gasoline and 23% is for heating oil (including kerosene).
Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
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if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

Online RE

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Renewable Energy Survey: A Diner Statistical Game
« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2016, 12:23:01 AM »
I already have a statistically significant sample of responses on the RE Survey, even in pre-release.   :icon_sunny:

My suggestion to Diners for speculation is to how they think this survey is panning out? ???  :icon_scratch:

Obviously, I cannot participate in this since I can see all results as they drop in.   But I wonder how YOU think this will pan out?

A few hints.  It is a VERY well formally educated set of respondents, heavily weighted to Masters level and above in formal education.

Also, probably half of currrent respondents are from Ugo's Cassandra Legacy site, and there are about a third from Reddit subs where I plugged the survey.  Those vary from Collapse sites to Renewable sites with different readership demographics.

I will say  from what I already observe, you can identify very clear mindsets looking at these topics.  I won't detail past that though because it would screw the pooch for getting more unifluenced responses.

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« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 12:42:47 AM by RE »
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Renewable Energy Survey: BACK TO THE FUTURE! 88 Doomers/Hour!
« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2016, 03:22:26 PM »
We now have 88 Respondents to the Renewable Energy Survey in the pre-Release Week! :icon_sunny:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/k0kswK2aI08" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/k0kswK2aI08</a>[/embed]

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Offline Eddie

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2016, 05:27:03 PM »
Given the credentials of the respondents, I expect they'll all agree with me. Except for part about renewable energy production from pig shit,which is still pretty cutting edge tech and not widely disseminated.. :)
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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2016, 06:00:23 PM »
Given the credentials of the respondents, I expect they'll all agree with me. Except for part about renewable energy production from pig shit,which is still pretty cutting edge tech and not widely disseminated.. :)

You would be surprised.

There are different camps here, and you can distinguish them when you sift the data.

I didn't include pig shit, or nuclear energy, which quite a few respondents are annoyed with.  I attempted to justify leaving out Nukes in the Launch Article for Sunday.  I did not address pig shit in that post.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2016, 06:04:36 PM »
I do think biomass will be a big part of our energy future, if there is an energy future. It should be in the discussion.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2016, 06:28:05 PM »
I do think biomass will be a big part of our energy future, if there is an energy future. It should be in the discussion.

My intention is to use this as a Launch Point for further analysis and discussion.

Following up here, I will present the results of the survey to date, then request new questions for a more detailed survey which will allow respondents to give new answers.  ;D

I am going to milk this one for all I can get out of it.  :icon_sunny:  It is already doing really good!

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2016, 10:01:15 PM »
I do think biomass will be a big part of our energy future, if there is an energy future. It should be in the discussion.
In percentage terms, I agree wholeheartedly.  I think biomass will end up becoming a more significant fraction of our energy mix.

In absolute terms, I gravely doubt it.  Humans are very unlikely to ever harvest significantly more (e.g., twice as much) kilocalories or BTUs of energy from biomass than we are now.  Why?  Because if you take all the energy being captured by all the plants on the planet, and subtract out the energy they need to survive and reproduce, out of that difference ("net primary productivity") humans are already utilizing, directly or indirectly, 40%.  There isn't much room to increase that percentage.  At 100% that would mean there is not one speck of wilderness left on the entire planet.  The only other way to increase it is raising the total by greening the deserts, reforestation, increasing the productivity of the oceans, etc., which while possible is precisely the opposite of the trends we are seeing currently.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2016, 11:51:27 PM »
I do think biomass will be a big part of our energy future, if there is an energy future. It should be in the discussion.

I totally agree, biomass is solar energy.  Low tech solar energy but cheap solar energy it is.  Only a third as productive as silicon.  Hmmmm, now I have to fact check myself.

An overall photosynthetic efficiency of 3 to 6% of total solar radiation for biomass.  Checked.  Efficiency for amorphous silicon cells manufactured in high-volume range from 6% to 9%.  Checked.  12 and a 1/2 % under laboratory conditions.  Difference is less than two to one.

Seems I was too conservative and did not give plants the credit they deserve.  Good I did not feign cleverness and foolishly dismiss them out of hand.  Biomass will be a huge part of our energy future. 

Conclusion:

Biomass survives collapse and silicon does not.  Biomass will be easier to deal with under medieval conditions.



Perhaps the choo-choo will come back and the nostalgic dreamers can stand proud with the plants.

Trains for the 1%.



Serfdom for everyone else.



Unless Americans discover solidarity and share the trains.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #26 on: May 26, 2016, 12:16:11 AM »

Perhaps the choo-choo will come back and the nostalgic dreamers can stand proud with the plants.

I doubt you could maintain the steam engines, forge new parts, rails etc utilizing just biomass.  They needed to burn a LOT of coal to build and run those things.

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #27 on: May 26, 2016, 05:32:54 AM »
RENEWABLE ENERGY SURVEY UPDATE

The RE Survey is now in TRIPLE DIGITS in respondents in pre-release!  :icon_sunny:

Formal Education remains very high, now @ 16% Doctorates.

General Release will be Sunday, including more of the early demographics.

Add your opinion now!  Especially if you are FEMALE!  Females not well represented on the survey @ only 10%.  Encourage your Moms, Wives and Girlfriends to drop on their opinions!

http://freeonlinesurveys.com/s/Wixv2RMd

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #28 on: May 26, 2016, 06:53:21 AM »
Perhaps the choo-choo will come back and the nostalgic dreamers can stand proud with the plants.
I doubt you could maintain the steam engines, forge new parts, rails etc utilizing just biomass.  They needed to burn a LOT of coal to build and run those things.
As the Archdruid said about maintaining the Internet in catabolic collapse, maintaining a rail system using biomass energy certainly COULD be done.  That is not the real issue.  The real question is, would it be worth it?

As an interesting example, a knight's armor represented about the same percentage of the economic output of the average medieval kingdom as a jet fighter's percentage of a modern industrial state's GDP.

So, no, railroads will NOT just be toys for the rich in a powerdown scenario.  Either there will be enough freight traffic to justify the expense of maintaining them, or they will not exist.  And as James Dakin likes to point out, trade is a function of peace and stability, two things which are likely to be in very short supply as economic contraction occurs.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Surly1

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Re: Renewable Energy Survey
« Reply #29 on: May 26, 2016, 07:09:51 AM »
And as James Dakin likes to point out, trade is a function of peace and stability, two things which are likely to be in very short supply as economic contraction occurs.

One of the things that is easy to forget as the contraction winds in slow motion. We've already seen who the militarized police are working for. And if Louisiana is any guide, those with a monopoly on armed force will now have the added protection of hate-crime legislation.

Hence my concern about gold as a store of wealth. Clearly it has worked as such as long as people have pulled the precious yellow from the ground. And also as history has taught, wealth is as good as your ability to hold onto it and defend it.

Better for a peasant to be long potatoes.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

 

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