AuthorTopic: Shadow Stats  (Read 478 times)

Offline Palloy

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Shadow Stats
« on: June 06, 2016, 08:23:25 PM »
While ShadowStats often gets a passing mention, it is worthwhile to drop in once in a while to see where the US economy is really at:
7 June 2016

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.

The Fed ceased publishing M-3, its broadest money supply measure, in March 2006. The SGS M-3 Continuation estimates current M-3 based on ongoing Fed reporting of M-3ís largest components (M-2, institutional money funds and partial large time deposits) and proprietary modeling of the balance.

So with unemployment at 23%, inflation at 8%, and the increase in M3 still hovering around 5%, it seems like an ideal time for a raise in interest rates.   :P
The State is a body of armed men


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