AuthorTopic: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!  (Read 15371 times)

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🌍 Brexit – Thoughts for the next six months
« Reply #45 on: September 10, 2018, 12:01:30 AM »
http://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/brexit-thoughts-for-the-next-six-months/

Brexit – Thoughts for the next six months
6th September 2018 / United Kingdom   


Brexit - Thoughts for the next six months

TruePublica Editor: The next six months means little more than brace yourselves for the ride folks. There’s so much skullduggery, chicanery and backstabbing going on there’s sure to be a political bloodbath one way or the other and the outcome doesn’t look pretty.

 

Asked how chaotic the coming months could be in British politics, even battle-hardened veterans from both main parties struggle to find the words reports The Guardian: “It could be utterly ghastly, with a complete breakdown in party discipline,” says one former Tory cabinet minister. “It is unprecedented in my 30 years.”

A Labour MP is similarly apocalyptic: “This is probably the most dangerous, existentially dangerous, period for the Labour party since 1981. It’s not clear that the party will survive this time.”
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Political Betting has Emily Thornberry at 5/1 as next leader of the Labour party and Jeremy Corbyn now a 2/1 bet he will lose his leadership alongside Theresa May at 1/3.

The Sunday Times is predicting a ‘double-coup’ with both leaders being ousted. That’s never happened before.

 

 

Source: House of Commons Library

Did I mention that the SNP has more of a membership that the ruling party does or that Labour now has 20 per cent more members than all other parties combined or that they are now the biggest political membership party across the entire European Union?

And yet, Labour is on the brink of self-destruction.

 
Whiners and Diners

It is no secret that potential Tory leadership candidates have been dining with donors with some plotting to stop Boris from doing any more damage – just at the same time Labour MP’s are covertly discussing a split.

In the meantime, the whole Brexit fiasco from one side of the political spectrum to the other is now just toe-to-toe punch-up.

Theresa May has declared war on Boris Johnson after allies said they had rumbled a plot by her Election guru to install the former Foreign Secretary as the next Prime Minister. Senior figures at Tory HQ claim that Sir Lynton Crosby is behind plans to mount a nationwide campaign against Mrs May’s Chequers agreement on Brexit as the precursor to a Boris leadership challenge.

 
Showdown

Let’s not forget public opinion has now changed on Brexit as well. More people now want to stay in the EU as they have now decided that so many lies were thrown about that the best course of action would be to forget the whole thing and make friends with our neighbours who we’ve been trashing for the last two years. That could force a showdown between an angry electorate (well, half of them) and the government (about a third of them).

Then we have new constitutional boundaries where more Labour MP’s could lose their seats than Tories. But the Tory losses reduce the thin balance of power they currently have – so both sides have an axe to grind with each other and from within. There are 50 seats being sacrificed – how will the incumbents fight back one wonders? Then again, there could be a leadership battle and the Tories could lose more seats yet again – or not.

 

“If she presses ahead with Chequers or, more likely, a watered-down version, it’s hard to see how we avoid a decisive showdown before Christmas,” said one pro-Brexit MP.

 

We should not forget we have police investigations and electoral commission reports on how much illegal activity took place over the EU referendum in the first place. Not that I think either will have any impact whatsoever.

Will there be a second referendum? There’s a big campaign for its support building. I doubt it will happen – but it all adds more fuel to the fires springing up all over the political landscape and in this environment, anything could happen.

Most MPs expect a Commons vote on the final Brexit deal by the end of the year and that will be an interesting one to witness. It may well be interesting to see public reaction when there is an admission that no trade-deals have been signed and the ones with any real potential are years away. Britain may well have to use WTO regulations in a no-deal agreement just at the time that Donald Trump is pushing the organisation to extinction. Oh dear!

Should May lose that fight, few agree on what would follow: a leadership challenge, an election or a second referendum. And let’s be fair, it is not in the realms of fantasy that all three could happen in that order as well – one or all of which spells nothing but chaos for Britain.

The other option and just as likely is that Britain capitulates and agrees to the worst of all deals. That is, some sort of trade deal that existed before but with no seat at the top table to determine rules and regulations.

For the general public, there are huge concerns. A Lack of faith in politics/politicians/government generally has become a top ten issue for the country for the first time according to a new Ipsos Mori poll. I think Ipsos are way behind the curve of reality here.

 

“This month’s Issues Index shows public concern about Britain and Europe remaining at the same record level measured in July. Fifty-seven per cent see European issues as one of the biggest concerns and 44% name it as the single biggest worry, compared with 58% and 45% last month.”

 

The poll also highlights that the country has become more polarised as a result of Brexit. So there’s worse to come, especially as one half of the country loses, which it inevitably will.

The last six-month run-up to the expected March 2019 exit from the European Union is set up to be as explosive and unpredictable as ever.

I’m told there are lots of reason to be optimistic – I just can’t think of any!
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🌍 Britain's May appeals to EU leaders but no sign of Brexit deal
« Reply #46 on: September 20, 2018, 12:09:38 AM »
Welcome to the Hotel EU. where you can Check Out but you can never leave.

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RE

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/britains-may-appeals-to-eu-leaders-but-no-sign-of-brexit-deal-idUSKCN1M000N

World News
September 19, 2018 / 4:16 PM / Updated 17 minutes ago
Britain's May appeals to EU leaders but no sign of Brexit deal
Gabriela Baczynska, Elizabeth Piper, Francois Murphy


6 Min Read

SALZBURG, Austria (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May appealed directly to fellow European Union leaders on Wednesday to drop “unacceptable” Brexit demands that she said could rip Britain apart, urging the bloc to respond in kind to her “serious and workable” plan.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May talks to the media as she arrives for the informal meeting of European Union leaders ahead of the EU summit, in Salzburg, Austria, September 19, 2018. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

They listened politely for a few minutes but said afterwards that a stalemate on the Irish border was unbroken — though some EU diplomats detected a cracking of ice around the spectacular summit dinner table, laid in the Salzburg theater used to film a dramatic escape finale in the film “The Sound of Music”.

Earlier, EU officials insisted May had to give more ground.

After Wiener schnitzel and four hours of wrangling over Europe’s migrant problem, May was given the floor and tried to win over her 27 peers by effectively asking them what they would do if they were asked to agree a “legal separation” of their countries — something she says the EU is asking for by insisting Northern Ireland might stay under EU economic rules.
Related Coverage

    Former UK minister says May's Brexit plans are delusional: Telegraph
    Former UK minister says May's Brexit plans are delusional: Telegraph

Maintaining a united front that refuses to let May bypass the negotiations run by Michel Barnier of the European Commission, they did not respond to her. They will discuss the issue among themselves over lunch on Thursday, setting what Barnier hopes can be a path to a final deal in two months.

“I believe that I have put forward serious and workable proposals,” May told the summit, according to a senior British government source. “We will of course not agree on every detail, but I hope that you will respond in kind.

“The onus is now on all of us to get this deal done.”

For now, however, with May still facing criticism of her “soft Brexit” approach at her Conservative Party conference in 10 days, there was little sign of either side giving way.

“At this stage, it’s a standstill. There is no progress,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite told Reuters after the dinner. Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini added: “On the border issue, there has been no progress.”

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“It was polite,” said a senior EU diplomat. “They are trying to be nice to her and there will be nice words tomorrow.”

A second said May seemed to be edging toward compromise, offering new proposals on how to avoid differing economic regulations disrupting trade and speaking of a “middle way”: “She spoke. There was no reaction. ‘Thank you’ and we moved on.”

With barely six months until Britain leaves the bloc, at the risk of serious disruption if there is no deal to tie up legal loose ends, there is pressure on both sides: “You can hear very clearly the clock ticking in the room,” said the second diplomat. “And that’s starting to have a psychological effect.”

EU officials again said Britain had to move its own position over what has become known as the Irish backstop - how to avoid erecting border posts between the British province and EU member Ireland - as well as on future economic cooperation after Brexit day in March.

A government source suggested Britain would come up with other proposals to try to reach agreement on Northern Ireland “in due course”, but May has so far been reluctant to move from her Chequers plan, hashed out at her country home in July.
BORDER PLAN “NOT CREDIBLE”

The talks, which have gone on for over a year, are bogged down in how to ensure that what will become Britain’s only land border with the EU, between Northern Ireland and Ireland, will not become home again to the checks and tensions of the past.

May has rejected an EU proposal to keep the province in a customs union with the bloc if they fail to reach a deal to keep the entire EU-UK border open, instead offering a time-limited customs arrangement that would cover the whole of Britain.

Over dinner, she said the problem could be solved by securing the type of “frictionless trade” envisaged in her Chequers plan, and that Britain was still committed to agreeing a fall-back scheme with the EU.

“However, the Commission’s proposal for this protocol - that I should assent to a legal separation of the United Kingdom into two customs territories - is not credible,” she said.
These hills are alive with the sound of Brexit

May is keen to show hardline Brexiters, who will be out in force at the party conference and who have called on her to “chuck Chequers”, that her plan is the only one that can be negotiated with the EU.

And, possibly for that domestic audience, she told the EU leaders that although time was short, “delaying or extending these negotiations is not an option” and rule out the option of a second referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
“NO PROGRESS”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told reporters before the dinner that there had been no advance on the issue: “I don’t think we’re any closer to a withdrawal agreement than we were in March, so I can’t report any progress, unfortunately.”

May will attend a morning session on Thursday to discuss security, where she will raise the poisoning of a former Russian spy. She will also have a face-to-face meeting with Varadkar.

She will then be out of the room when the other 27 leaders discuss her Brexit proposals over lunch, and will find out about their reactions only when summit chair Donald Tusk briefs her separately afterwards.

But the senior British source said Britain believed momentum was growing for a deal, noting Tusk’s plan to convene a special summit in mid-November to ink a hoped-for treaty.

“I think this signals that very serious discussions are now taking place,” the source said. “We are confident of getting a deal.”

Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska, Elizabeth Piper and Francois Murphy; Additional reporting by Alastair Macdonald; Writing by Elizabeth Piper and Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Lisa Shumaker
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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🌍 The NAZIS and FASCISTS who founded the THE EU and their influence today
« Reply #47 on: September 20, 2018, 03:59:58 AM »
If you think the Nazis are only over in Europe, you should think again.

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🌍 IMF (AGAIN) MAKES A FOOL OF ITSELF OVER BREXIT
« Reply #48 on: September 21, 2018, 12:04:36 AM »
http://freenations.net/imf-again-makes-a-fool-of-itself-over-brexit/

IMF (AGAIN) MAKES A FOOL OF ITSELF OVER BREXIT
Posted By: Rodney Atkinsonon: September 19, 2018In: News

l

WRONG

Joining that merry band of doom mongers (HM Treasury, the Bank of England and Chancellor Hammond) the IMF’s Christine Lagarde has again warned of “substantial costs” of a no deal Brexit. In fact of course there is no such thing as “no deal” – we simply go to the World Trade organisation deal, like most of the world’s nations – saving on the way big duties on imports from the rest of the world on cars, food and clothing and saving 40 billion Euros in contributions to the EU budget! The “substantial costs” are in having a deal!

George Osborne-sponsored IMF Head Lagarde (who was found guilty by a French Court of negligence for failing to challenge a Euro 400m payout to a friend of French President Nicolas Sarkozy) has continued that organisation’s negligence and incompetence. In 2012 it was pointed out – just as she was attacking Greeks for not paying tax – that she paid no tax on her £298,000 salary which if grossed up for proper tax would have been more than the President of the United States!

WRONG

It was in April 2013 that the IMF’s Chief Economist attacked the UK’s deficit reduction programme and warned of “playing with fire”. The following year the UK’s growth rate was 2.9% and that economist had to apologise.

WRONG

Lagarde said that leaving the EU would be a blow to the UK economy because “Countries trade mainly with their neighbours”. But the USA, thousands of miles away, is the UK’s biggest export market! The UK has a consistent trade surplus with the USA and a consistent large deficit with the EU.

WRONG

Lagarde further claimed that the UK was suffering from a lack of capital investment because of the threat of Brexit. But the overall picture is the opposite. There has been since January 2016 a 6% increase in UK Gross Fixed Capital Formation – from £81bn to £86bn.

When the IMF made a fool of itself in 2013-14 the UK was still showing far healthier growth than the stagnant EU. Today Lagarde says we are in trouble – after 20 years (since the Euro was launched) of greatly outperforming the EU. That is why we have nearly 3 million EU “citizens” working in the UK.

Even today the IMF has just increased its growth forecast for the UK from 1.4% to 1.5% and while we have just posted a 0.6% growth in the quarter to July the Eurozone growth rate was 0.3% which was the slowest growth rate since 2016 (when we voted to leave!) and the IMF says:

“Forecasts for 2018 growth have been revised down for Germany and France after activity softened more than expected in the first quarter, and in Italy”

CORPORATIST FORECASTER ELITES

Once again a large State corporatist institution has made a fool of itself in its analysis and forecasting. It is a catching disease, but inevitable from those who have comfortable careers and salaries – whether they are proved right or wrong.

Outside in the real world the rest of us, acting in democratic markets and responsible to our fellow citizens, have to absorb the cost of their failures and get on with life. When we rise up and tell them that staying in the EU would be a disaster the supranational elitists can’t believe it – no wonder. While mass unemployment and social collapse have characterised the EU for 20 years the scribblers have sailed on regardless in their unearned luxury!
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🌍 What’s going on with Brexit, explained in under 500 words
« Reply #49 on: November 17, 2018, 12:04:52 AM »
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/16/18098437/brexit-deal-theresa-may

What’s going on with Brexit, explained in under 500 words
The EU and UK struck a deal on how it would work. Then all hell broke loose.
By Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Nov 16, 2018, 10:50am EST


UK Prime Minister Theresa May during a November 15 press conference on the Brexit deal. Matt Dunham/WPA Pool/Getty Images

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled the draft of a deal she had struck with European Union negotiators on Brexit — the UK’s process of leaving the EU. Shortly thereafter, the British political system collapsed into complete chaos. Now, nobody really knows what Brexit will look like. It might not even happen at all.

The pro-Brexit camp in May’s Conservative Party has long been split between two sides. Advocates of a “hard Brexit” want to completely sever ties with the EU, separating British law from European law on topics ranging from trade to migration to product regulation. Advocates of a “soft Brexit,” by contrast, want to maintain some of these ties — arguing that a complete separation from the EU’s common market would be disastrous for Britain’s economy and political stability. (The leading opposition party, left-wing Labour, is largely but not entirely opposed to Brexit.)

The agreement May released on Wednesday is definitively a soft Brexit.

The deal has a provision that could keep the UK in the EU customs union (the system setting common trade rules for all EU members) indefinitely. This is designed to avoid a crisis over Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK but wants to retain an open border with neighboring EU member Ireland. Imposing border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland could threaten the Good Friday Agreement, the deal that ended serious violence in Northern Ireland way back in 1999.

This might be smart politically, but the hard Brexit camp saw it as a betrayal: a failure to deliver on the promise to “take back control” over UK law. May forced her cabinet to agree to the deal on Wednesday, but on Thursday, two secretaries — including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab — resigned in protest.

Also on Thursday, May went to Parliament to defend her deal, and was literally laughed at by the assembled MPs. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a comically aristocratic Conservative MP from the hard Brexit faction, submitted a letter of no confidence in May’s leadership — which could in theory topple her premiership.

By Friday morning, everything was a complete mess. Nobody knows if there are enough votes in Parliament to approve May’s Brexit deal. If the vote fails, May might well fail with it.

If the deal fails to pass Parliament, there are generally two options: a no-deal Brexit, which would devastate the UK economy, and a nationwide “second referendum” that would basically revisit the question of whether Britain wants to leave the EU at all. The expectation is that British voters, given another chance, would vote to end Brexit.

“The prospects of a second referendum have advanced considerably,” the Financial Times’s Robert Shrimsley writes. “Parliament will not stomach a no-deal exit. So the hardliners risk provoking the crisis that kills their dream, by smoothing the path to a second referendum.”

Is that likely? No one knows! Such is the state of British politics in the Brexit era: a true and complete omnishambles.
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🌍 The Brutal Reality Of Brexit
« Reply #50 on: November 17, 2018, 12:45:43 AM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/11/16/the-brutal-reality-of-brexit/#1183d9405fb1

The Brutal Reality Of Brexit


Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May gives a press conference inside 10 Downing Street in central London on November 15, 2018.  (PMATT DUNHAM/AFP/Getty Images)Getty

Frances Coppola
Senior Contributor
Markets

I write about banking, finance and economics.

Theresa May’s chickens are coming home to roost. The deal she agreed to with Brussels is unravelling fast, and her premiership along with it. So far, seven of her ministers have resigned. Letters calling for her replacement are pouring in to the powerful chairman of the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee: once he receives 48 letters, there could be a vote of confidence in her leadership, and perhaps a leadership challenge. Other Tories are calling for a second referendum. Meanwhile, the Labour party is slavering at the possibility of an early General Election. The political crisis that has been simmering since 2016 has erupted with a vengeance.

The political fallout from Mrs. May’s latest attempt to square the Brexit circle is understandable. Her Brexit deal is horrible. It would lock the UK into a “frozen Brexit," neither in the EU nor completely out of it.  The U.K. would be forced to accept EU decisions over which it would have no say and continuing to contribute to the EU budget despite no longer being a member. It would also be unable to enact its own trade deals with the rest of the world until the freeze ended. And it would be unable to end the freeze unilaterally.

The idea is that this “frozen Brexit” would initially be only for a transitional period ending in December 2020, when it would be superseded by a free trade agreement. But the proposal allows this date to be extended, if necessary for decades, if no free trade agreement is negotiated. And if the transition ends without a free trade agreement, then the entire U.K. would remain in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, but Northern Ireland would have a closer relationship with the EU than the rest of the U.K.

For Brexiters and Remainers alike, this is the worst of all possible solutions. But horrible though it is, this deal satisfies the conditions set by Mrs. May in her Lancaster House speech. It also satisfies the EU’s conditions. No other proposal achieves this. It is, therefore, the best deal available. The U.K. Government has struck a deal that allows Britain to have its cake and eat it -- but the cake tastes so disgusting that no one wants to eat it.

The hard-Brexit European Research Group (ERG) seems to think that if it succeeds in replacing Mrs. May with a hard Brexiter, he or she could negotiate a deal more to its liking. On the other side of the political divide, the Labour party seems to think that if it succeeds in replacing Mrs. May with Jeremy Corbyn, he will be able to negotiate a deal more to its liking.
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Both are deluded. The EU has no incentive whatsoever to renegotiate any of the deal. The road to this point has been long and painful, and the U.K. government has negotiated in bad faith throughout, repeatedly saying one thing to the EU then the opposite to its own politicians and the British press, and hurling insults when things don’t go its way. There is very little goodwill left on the EU side, and negotiation fatigue has well and truly set in.

Once again, the Tories are fighting among themselves rather than facing up to the reality of what they have done. Votes of confidence and leadership challenges will achieve nothing. They simply waste precious time.

And the Labour party is no better. Voting down the deal in the hopes of forcing a General Election is stupid beyond belief. The EU would no doubt grant an extension to Article 50 to allow a General Election to take place before Brexit, but that doesn’t mean it would be willing to renegotiate the deal. Jeremy Corbyn could well suffer the ignominy of being presented with Mrs. May’s deal as a “take it or leave it” choice.

Anyway, Mrs. May does not have to call an election even if Parliament votes down the deal. She can simply say that Parliament has chosen no-deal Brexit and her job is to implement it. Her repeated statements in today’s press conference that “politicians will be held to account for the decisions that they make” suggest that this is exactly what she would do.

The looming prospect of no-deal Brexit is already spooking markets. Sterling tanked today, and the cost of CDS protection on U.K. government debt rose. Shares in Britain’s state-owned bank RBS fell by 9%. While a no-deal Brexit would no doubt be priced in ahead of the actual event, there would clearly be considerable market disruption.

No-deal Brexit could also have catastrophic economic consequences. The IMF, which recently concluded its Article IV assessment of the U.K. economy, said that no-deal Brexit could cause GDP to fall by 5-8%, a similar fall to that the U.K. experienced in the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Other independent forecasters have similarly concluded that no-deal Brexit would knock a very large hole in the U.K. economy. And there have been repeated warnings of the consequences for U.K. jobs and livelihoods, not to mention supplies of essentials such as medicines, if the U.K. were suddenly cut off from European supply chains.

The British people did not vote to have their lives wrecked by a completely avoidable economic crash. They voted for an orderly exit from the EU. But if Parliament votes down this deal, then the only options left on the table are no-deal Brexit – or no Brexit at all.

There are growing calls for a second referendum. But such a referendum could not simply hand over to the people of Britain a choice between this horrible deal and a disastrous no-deal Brexit. If there is a second referendum, the ballot paper must have three options: Mrs. May’s deal, No Deal, and No Brexit. Only then will we discover whether the British population’s longing for “sovereignty” really trumps their rational desire for jobs, economic stability and prosperity.

But if there is no second referendum – and at present neither the Government nor the Labour party seem to be seriously considering it – then Parliament must decide whether a complete break with the EU in the interests of sovereignty, even at the cost of a deep economic recession, is better or worse for the British people in the longer term than “frozen Brexit." Or, of course, whether it is best to call the whole thing off.

There is now a real danger that the U.K. will sleepwalk its way into a disastrous no-deal Brexit. British politicians must stop their games and take their responsibilities towards the people of the U.K. seriously, before it is too late.
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🌍 What May’s Brexit Deal Tells Us About The EU and Britain’s Future
« Reply #51 on: November 24, 2018, 12:35:31 AM »
http://www.ianwelsh.net/what-mays-brexit-deal-tells-us-about-the-eu-and-britains-future/

What May’s Brexit Deal Tells Us About The EU and Britain’s Future
2018 November 16
by Ian Welsh


So, May has a Brexit deal. It’s a terrible deal, which makes the UK subject to many EU laws, and which doesn’t allow Britain to withdraw from the deal if the EU doesn’t want it to.

This has caused ministerial resignations, and Corbyn has come out against it.

But the interesting part is what the EU and May have negotiated. This clause, for example:


Corbyn’s policies include straight up re-nationalization of the railways, regulation of housing prices and the government outright building vast numbers of flats, among many other similar policies.

In other words, Corbyn’s policies interfere with liberal market rules. They are, actually, forbidden by the EU, but on occasion exceptions are made.

Now, retaining privileged access to the EU market was going to require some rule taking, but May has chosen to take more rules that are “no socialism” and less rules that are “treat your people decently.”

What May has done is negotiate a deal which ties Corbyn’s hands: he can’t do his policies if he becomes Prime Minister, and he can’t leave the deal. (Well, in theory, and perhaps in practice.)

Of course, Britain can still leave the deal: parliament is supreme, and one parliament cannot tie the hands of another parliament. Nonetheless, doing so would be damaging to Britain’s relationship with the EU, to put it mildly.

These sorts of efforts to tie future government’s hands, so that they can’t not do neoliberal policies are common. The now-dead Canadian Chinese trade deal had a clause which required a 20 year withdrawal notice, for example. The Canadian-EU free trade deal forbids the Canadian government from many of these sorts of policies as well.

This is the great problem with the neoliberal world order: it is set up to force countries into a specific sort of economy, and to punish them if they resist or refuse. That would be somewhat ok, but only somewhat, if neoliberal economics worked, but they don’t.

What they do, instead, is impoverish large minorities, even pluralities, in countries which adopt them. Those pluralities then become demagogue bait (hello Trump.)

Meanwhile Macron has proposed an EU military, and Germany’s Merkel has said she supports the idea.

EU elites are absolutely convinced their way is best, and that anyone who is against it is wrong. They are not primarily concerned with democracy (the EU is run primarily by un-elected bureaucrats), and do not consider democratic legitimacy as primary. If people vote for the “wrong” thing, EU elites feel they have the right to over-ride that. They have overseen what amount to coups in both Greece and Italy in the past 10 years.

The funny thing is that orthodox neoliberal economic theory admits there will be losers to neoliberal policies and states that they must be compensated. The problem is that has never been done, and indeed, with accelerating austerity, the opposite has been done: at the same time as a plurality is impoverished, the social supports have been kicked out from under them.

Macron has been particularly pointed in this: gutting labor rights in the name of labor market flexibility.

Neoliberalism, in other words, creates the conditions of its own failure. It is failing around the world: in America (Trump does not believe in the mulilateral neoliberal order), in Europe, and so on.

Even in countries that “support” the EU, there are substantial minorities, pushing into plurality status, which don’t support it.

So Europe needs an army. Because Eurocrats know best, and since neoliberalism isn’t working for enough people that things like Brexit happen; that Italy is ignoring rules, that the East is boiling over with right wing xenophobia, well, force is going to be needed. A European military, with French nukes, is the core of a great power military. And soon countries won’t be able to leave.

That, at any rate, is where things are headed. We’ll see if the EU cracks up first.

In the meantime, May’s Brexit deal really is worse than no deal, and in should in no way be passed. In fact, if I were Corbyn, and it was passed, if I became PM I’d get rid of it. Because it either goes or he breaks substantially all of his most important electoral promises.

The EU is loathsome. I won’t say it’s done no good, but it’s now doing more harm than good (indeed it has been for at least a decade.) As with the US, since it is misusing its power, it needs to lose it. That process will be ugly, since a lot of those who are rising to challenge it are right wing assholes (because the left has abandoned sovereignty).

But you can’t fail pluralities of your population and stay stable without being a police state and holding yourself together with brutal force.

Those are the EU’s two most likely futures: brutal police state, or crackup.

Pity, but that’s what EUcrats, with their insistence on neoliberal rules and hatred of democracy have made damn near inevitable.
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🌍 Theresa May Loses Power Over Brexit Endgame in War With Parliament
« Reply #52 on: December 05, 2018, 01:10:21 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/may-loses-power-over-brexit-endgame-in-war-with-u-k-parliament

politics
Theresa May Loses Power Over Brexit Endgame in War With Parliament
By Tim Ross
and Robert Hutton
December 4, 2018, 2:43 PM AKST


    PM suffers three defeats in key votes as MPs savage her deal
    Worst night for a U.K. prime minister in Commons for 40 years


U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is locked in a power struggle with the British Parliament that looks set to determine the final shape of Brexit.

May lost three key votes on a day of drama in the House of Commons on Tuesday, highlighting the weakness of her position as she tries to ratify the deal she’s struck with the European Union.

Theresa May
Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

The result is that Parliament now has the potential to decide on Britain’s "plan B" if -- as expected -- it rejects May’s divorce agreement with the EU in the biggest vote of all next week.

Read more - Confused About Brexit? Here’s a Guide to the Endgame: QuickTake

That’s not what the premier wanted. It raises the possibility that members of Parliament could seek to pursue a softer withdrawal -- including potentially staying in the bloc’s single market -- or even attempt to stop Brexit entirely. One option that could gather momentum over the weeks ahead is for a second referendum to allow the public to overturn the decision of the first.

“No longer must the will of Parliament -- reflecting the will of the people -- be diminished,” Tory lawmaker Dominic Grieve said after engineering one of May’s defeats Tuesday. “Parliament must now take back control and then give the final decision back to the public because, in the end, only the people can sort this out.”

Dominic Grieve
Photographer: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
Long Odds

On Dec. 11, Parliament will vote finally on whether to accept or reject the 585-page withdrawal agreement that May and the EU reached in November. Few officials in May’s government believe they have much chance of winning, with some Tories predicting a heavy defeat.

If they’re right, the U.K. will be on course to crash out of the EU with no deal, an outcome which the Bank of England and the Treasury warned last week would cause immediate and severe damage to the British economy. According the BOE analysis, house prices would be hit by 30 percent and the pound would fall by as much as 25 percent after a no-deal Brexit.

The signs are not good for May’s plan. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the official opposition, which he leads, will oppose her deal next week. Critics from all sides of the House lined up to raise objections to the deal.

Jeremy Corbyn
Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Key Votes Lost

Even Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which has a formal role propping up May’s minority Tory government, isn’t backing her.

On a day of fast moving developments on Brexit:

    An advisory opinion from the EU’s top court indicated that the U.K. can unilaterally decide to reverse Brexit.
    May lost two House of Commons votes forcing her to publish secret government legal advice on her Brexit deal. After being found in contempt of Parliament -- an unprecedented charge against a government -- May promised she would release the legal file Wednesday. The pound fell as much as 0.5 percent against the dollar.
    The premier then lost a third big vote that could prove even more significant: it gives Parliament the power to shape the final Brexit settlement if, as expected, May fails to get her deal approved in the Commons in the Dec. 11 vote. The pound pared earlier losses.

Speaking shortly after the defeats, May put on a brave face, and appealed to her colleagues to back her “compromise” plan or risk betraying voters who chose to leave the EU in the referendum of 2016.
Central Figure

“I do not say that this deal is perfect -- it was never going to be,” May told the Commons. “We should not let the search for the perfect Brexit prevent a good Brexit that delivers for the British people.”

The government’s frustration focused on the central figure of Commons Speaker John Bercow. He made the ruling to allow Tuesday’s damaging votes to take place.

John Bercow
Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

According to people familiar with the matter, May’s cabinet ministers expressed their private anger at Bercow’s handling of Brexit during a meeting earlier Tuesday, with some of those present voicing harsh words about the Speaker. Bercow’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Thanks to May’s defeats Tuesday, it would be the Speaker again who would decide how Parliament can shape the plan B if the premier fails to get her overall Brexit deal through the Commons next week.
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🌍 Brexit: Theresa May Goes Greek!
« Reply #53 on: December 06, 2018, 01:20:57 AM »
https://www.globalresearch.ca/brexit-theresa-may-goes-greek/5661913

Brexit: Theresa May Goes Greek!
Will Parliament Save the Kingdom?
By Brett Redmayne-Titley
Global Research, December 05, 2018
Region: Europe
Theme: History

Regularly presidents, prime ministers, congresspersons and parliamentarians worldwide negate the democratic will of their nation’s voters by refusing to support legitimate election results. Strangely, their treasonous actions continue without serious reprisal or punishment by the voter. This emboldens them. The reality of votes cast and “democracy”past does not does bode well for the people of the United Kingdom, their future as a nation or their hopeful return to sovereignty once called, “Brexit.”

While the name has not changed; the definition certainly has.

It has become all too easy for democracy to be turned on its head and popular nationalist mandates, referenda and elections negated via instant political hypocrisy by leaders who show their true colours only after the public vote. So it has been within the two-and-a-half year unraveling of the UK Brexit referendum of 2016 that saw the subsequent negotiations now provide the Brexit voter with only three possibilities. All are a loss for Britain.



One possibility, Brexit, is the result of Prime Minister, Theresa May’s negotiations- the “deal”- and currently exists in name only. Like the PM herself, the original concept of Brexit may soon lay in the dust of an upcoming UK Parliament floor vote in exactly the same manner as the failed attempt by the Greeks barely three years ago. One must remember that Greece on June 27, 2015 once voted to leave the EU as well and to renegotiate its EU existence as well in their own “Grexit” referendum. Thanks to their own set of underhanded and treasonous politicians, this did not go well for Greece. Looking at the Greek result, and understanding divisive UK Conservative Party control that exists in the hearts of PMs on both sides of the House of Commons, this new parliamentary vote is not looking good for Britain.

The Fleeting Illusion of Election Night Victory.

Similar to Greece, the current state of Brexit leaves it now before the parliament – not the voters- as a poor Hobson’s choice. In a week, this faux- Brexit as it is currently- the spawn of an utter, and possibly deliberate, failure in the negotiations- will be decided. Here in the UK blame can be laid at the feet of just one national politician, who, like Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, first appeared to their desperate country dressed in the mantle of “Hope”and “Change.” Too quickly Tsipras was stripped bare, following  Syriza’s staggering 2015 national election victory and his subsequent tepid and inept attempt to renegotiate with Brussels about its destructive debt structure and leave the EU. His public disrobing then- like that of UK Prime Minister Theresa May via her “deal”– would thus reveal the life-long scars of their true national allegiance gnawed into their backs by the lust of their masters in Brussels.

On Dec. 11, 2018, the most historic vote in modern UK history will take place. At stake is Britain. Like Greece, the whispered coercions to UK Parliament members by the arrogant likes of European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker and President of the European Council Donald Tusk and their EU members have begun. These are the men who have already beaten back the democratic attempts of Greece and Catalonia while affecting recent populist socialist movements in national elections in Italy and in Spain.

The farcical justifications from UK politicians have begun anew, trying desperately to convince Britons that this failure of negotiations and political will is actually good for them, their futures and for the UK. These de rigueur protestations are growing louder day-by-day as the public is told again and again, “This is the best we can do.”

Is it?

As must be remembered, David Cameron, a Tory, called for the national Brexit vote in order, not to free the UK from the clutches of EU unelected dominance, but instead to further certify and strengthen the Conservative Party’s ongoing destruction of the UK’s social services, privatization of national assets, privatization of Britain’s healthcare system (the NHS), and increased austerity for UK families. All this, while an increasingly impoverished Britain saw their parliament approve tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, benefit reductions for workers, increased retirement age, and more funding for US/Israeli inspired wars under diktat from Brussels via Washington.

Ironically, like a cluster bomb of white phosphorous over a Syrian village, Cameron’s Brexit vote blew up spectacularly in his face. Two decades of ongoing political submission to the EU by the Cons and “new”labour had them arrogantly misreading the minds of the UK voter.

So on that incredible night, it happened. Prime Minister David Cameron… the Cons… New Labour…The Lib- Dems… and even the UK Labour Party itself, were shocked to their core when the unthinkable nightmare that could never happen, did happen. Brexit had passed by popular vote!

David Cameron has been in hiding ever since.

After Brexit passed the same set of naïve UK voters assumed, strangely, that Brexit would be finalized in their national interest as advertised. This belief had failed to read Article 50– the provisos for leaving the EU- since, as much as it was mentioned, it was very rarely linked or referenced by a quotation in any of the media punditry. However, an article published four days after the night Brexit passed, “ A Brexit Lesson In Greek: Hopes and Votes Dashed on Parliamentary Floors,” provided anyone thus reading  Article 50, which is only eight pages long and double-spaced, the info to see clearly that this never before used EU by-law would be the only route to a UK exit. Further, Article 50 showed that Brussels would control the outcome of exit negotiations along with the other twenty-seven member nationsand that effectively Ms May and her Tories would be playing this game using the EU’s ball and rules, while going one-on-twenty-seven during the negotiations.

In the aftermath of Brexit, the real game began in earnest. The stakes: bigger than ever.

Forgotten are the hypocritical defections of political expediency that saw Boris Johnson and then Home Secretary Theresa May who were, until that very moment, both vociferously and very publicly against the intent of Brexit. Suddenly they claimed to be pro- Brexit in their quest to sleep in Cameron’s now vacant bed at No. 10 Downing Street. Boris strategically dropped out to hopefully see, Ms May, fall on her sword- a bit sooner.

So, the plucky PM was left to convince the UK public, daily, as the negotiations moved on, that “Brexit means Brexit!” A UK media that is as pro-EU as their PM chimed in to help her sell distortions of proffered success at the negotiating table, while the rise of “old” Labour, directed by Jeremy Corbyn, exposed her “soft” Brexit negotiations for the litany of failures that ultimately equaled the “deal” that was strangely still called “Brexit.”

Too few, however, examined this reality once these political Chameleons changed their colours just as soon as the very first results shockingly came in from Manchester in the wee hours of the morning on that seemingly hopeful night so long ago: June 23, 2016. For thus would begin a quiet, years-long defection of many more MPs than merely these two opportunists.

What the British people also failed to realize was that they and their Brexit victory would also be faced with additional adversaries beyond the EU members: those from within their own government. From newly appointed PM May to Boris Johnson, from the Conservative Party to the New Labour sellouts within the Labour Party and the Friends of Israel, the quiet internal political movement against Brexit began. As the House of Lords picked up their phones, too, for very quiet private chats within House of Commons, their minions in the British press began their work as well.

The Kingdom’s New Waterloo?

Two weeks ago, Ms May announced the details of her very much anticipated “deal.” This was the culmination of her “tough” negotiating style with the European Union negotiators on Brexit.

The definition of pro-Brexit supporters in Ms May’s Conservative Party has amounted to two possible choices in result: the “hard Brexit” which completely severs ties with the EU. This would separate British law from European law on topics ranging from trade to migration to product regulation. The other strategy, a “soft Brexit,” would maintain some of these ties without a complete separation from the EU’s common market.

The details that Ms May released on Wednesday are without a doubt a very soft Brexit- one that pays no homage to the original vote. This is because the deal has a provision that would still keep the UK in the EU Customs Union (the system setting common trade rules for all EU members) indefinitely. This is an outrageous inclusion and betrayal of a real Brexit by Ms May since this one topic was the most contentious in the debate during the ongoing negotiations because the Customs Union is the tie to the EU that the original Brexit vote specifically sought to terminate.

Worse, this deal would have the UK parliament forfeit its current direct rights to EU law and courts in the advent of problems within the Customs Union after the deal. However, Britains are supposed to believe the protestations, now, that the EU will promise to provide smooth sailing from now on.

Theresa May’s No-Brexit/Brexit Deal

The issue of the “Back-stop” has Ireland furious as well. This is designed to avoid a crisis over Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK but wants to retain an open border with neighboring EU member Ireland. Imposing border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland could threaten the Good Friday Agreement, the deal that ended serious violence in Northern Ireland in 1999. Unlike, Ms May, Ireland does not trust the EU. Due to the Back Stop and the Customs Union, the EU will be able to force its will on the UK, as France has already said it will do over fishing rights, but the UK will not be able to cry foul, because Ms May will have given up the nation’s EU commercial rights of any kind over grievances.

Ms May’s failure was so obvious that cabinet defections– new ones- began immediately including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, who said, he cannot in good conscience” support the deal. His was followedbyWork and Pensions secretary, Esther McVey, who added,

    “We have gone from no deal is better than a bad deal, to any deal is better than no deal.”

When, on Thursday, PM May went to Parliament to defend her deal, she was met by howls of laughter as she attempted to show confidence before the whole House of Commons when defending her indefensible deal. Next, Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has grandstanded throughout as  an MP from the hard Brexit camp, submitted a letter of no confidence in May’s leadership — which may see her soon join David Cameron in hiding.

As it stands before parliament next Tues., the choice is a Hard Brexit “No” vote or “Yes” to Ms May’s excuses for this deal. This choice also amounts to whether she will see her hand the keys to No. 10 over to the nightmare of Brussels, Jeremy Corby.

Yes or no, both, at this minute, are being sold as the only two choices, with EU President Junker helping this coercion by insisting that there will be no new negotiations and “this deal is the ‘best deal for Britain,” and that,

    “This is the only deal possible. So, if the House (of Commons) says no, we would have no deal.”

Both sides predict gloom and doom for Britain, and here, they may both be correct. This all the more highlights the failure and the treason of Ms May’s deal.

The last option is a new Brexit referendum. After a successful “No” vote. “The prospects of a second referendum have advanced considerably,” wrote the ultra-conservative Financial Times’s Robert Shrimsley, who added.

    “Parliament will not stomach a no-deal exit. So the hardliners risk provoking the crisis that kills their dream, by smoothing the path to a second referendum.”

This, of course, ignores Junker’s threats against further negotiations and the very questionable outcome from the voters who are tired of elections and this Brexit but will likely, then, have a new leader in the Commons.

As it stands, only one possible outcome, the “Hard Brexit,” is in keeping with the spirit of the Brexit that was voted for long ago. But if the fate of Greece is followed by EU vengeance on the UK in retribution, the Brits will be hit hard, fast and often. Considering the Tories, not surprisingly, have no plan for this, the pound will likely dive and prices soar in Venezuela style fashion. The deal, however, is a clear victory for the EUP and a new referendum as no guaranteed result except to continue to fracture Britain with yet another vote.  All choices, if these are choices, are very bad for Britain.

The question that should be most important to all British citizens, the one that must draw their attention to this Brexit finale, is no longer: “Brexit: ‘Yes?’or ‘No?’” The question must now be:

           “How many UK politicians will, a week from Wednesday, sell their vote, their soul and their country to EU?”

Their vote will answer this. The British people are in the hands of their politicians; the same collective UK cadre that has, for the past two decades, routinely beholden the UK to an unelected EU central body of monetary, military and sovereign control.

What could go wrong?

The Eight Hundred Pound Corbyn in the Room.

Throughout the negotiations, there has at all times been a specter looming in the back of the minds of the Brexit negotiators and particularly in the black souls of Junker and Tusk. Arguably there is a much bigger reason for the failed Brexit negotiations and the final desperate measures of Ms May and her ilk to pass their “deal.” This reason, a voice of reason long discounted like the UK people themselves, now stands larger than ever. One diminutive little man. He stands for what they do not. This politician is pro-UK, pro-worker, pro-Labour, pro- NHS, pro-union, and pro- Palestine. He is also anti-privatization, anti- EU, anti-war, anti-nuclear war, anti-global warming. Worse, he is a devote socialist and a Jew…  a Jew who publicly holds Israel accountable for its crimes!

Yes. Behind all that has gone on with destroying Brexit, there is another nightmare, one that is the Kryptonite that Brussels is terrified of to its marrow. His name is Jeremy Corbyn.

However, Brussels is not scared of just the man himself nor his ideals and sincerity to his cause. No. What EU and EUP politicians, those that support all things Zionist, fear the most is his leadership: Unapologetic, populist, socialist, leadership. That is rising.

Corbyn is what the United Kingdom once was fifty years ago. During that too-long forgotten time, the workers and their vote forced political will in favour of their country and their families. Politicians feared their vote and Britain slowly reversed the social degradation that was the legacy of the industrial revolution and the engines of capitalism and capitalists run amuck. Corbyn is, and always has been, Old Labour; not the bastardized form that slowly infected parliament under the moniker of “New”Labour over the past twenty years. What hucksters like Tony Blair and the Labour Party elite were, in fact, offering as “new” was really just a quasi Conservative Party light platform that slowly morphed over the years into what the Conservative Party had once been itself under Thatcher and John Major. This left the British voter with the choices of only the Tories or the Conservative Party subsets such as the ineffective Lib-Dems, plus a few non-influential nationalist parties like DUP in Ireland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

Hence, election-after-election, voters continued to see their country gutted by virtue of their own vote due to a lack of true choice or opposition candidates. The ongoing results were privatization, social service cuts, and imposed austerity on the UK majority that saw UK poverty levels skyrocket, as shown by last week’ scathing UN report. Instead, Britain became a haven for the wealthy and their massive tax dodging schemes- as shown by the Panama Papers- as poverty increased under more and more White Hall approved austerity. All pro- EU factions of all UK parties within the Parliament, however, were universal in their excuses and false justifications for their ongoing gutting of what remained of British socialism… election-after-election.

Except one.

Corbyn is real Labour. He is an unabashed supporter of, and a throwback to, a time when the UK was an economic powerhouse, but also had enough for everyone- by law! By all accounts and his consistent thirty-five-year track record as an MP, he is genuine. Minimized by his Labour colleagues and the UK press during decades of Labour Party decline, he has now emerged as the voice of reason, a champion of the worker, formidable in debate with his Tory adversaries and unflappable under the torrent of daily media and cross-bench White Hall criticism.

Few remember, as they should, that Corbyn, as leader of the Labour Party, has already survived a very contentious attempt by his own party members and the Friends of Israel to oust him as the leader. His success against this coup strongly shows that he has very powerful and connected political interests behind him: those which have spearheaded his ascent and believe in socialist reforms. They and Corbyn understand the true state and direction of current Britain; about this Brexit deal and about Ms May’s faux negotiations and her treason. They don’t like any of it.

To the troika (EU Commission, EU Central Bank and IMF) Corbyn is a much bigger threat than the failed attempts at sovereignty in Catalonia, Italy, Spain, Greece or Britain. Corbyn may prove to be- if he becomes PM- real leadership: leadership worth following. His sincere path to a return to an old-time Labour platform that returns control to the UK worker rather than elite and the powerful business interests is anathema to the capitalist forces ruling the EU. His consistent leadership reminds his growing group of followers, both in Britain and worldwide, of the good old days when the people did matter to their government and when there was enough for everyone- by law! He is a very dangerous man; for his is a message, not just for the UK but one being heard as a rallying cry in many capitalist dominated countries worldwide.

If Corbyn comes to power, his will- finally– be the first successful attempt at the return to a socialist Britain; the first non- military defeat for the EU and Capitalist forces worldwide. If he becomes PM, which seems increasingly likely, Corbyn’s example will be closely followed by other socialist national leaders in their own countries- sincerely or not (see: Bernie Sanders) –  where the 1% have all the wealth, all the services and all the control over an increasingly impoverished world. Anti-populist forces like the EU have so far globally stopped all forms of democratic expression including those elections that were –temporarily – successful, such as Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Honduras, and Ukraine. So, Brexit and Corbyn must be defeated.

While Brexit might be the unintended spark for a desperate world to watch glow, it is Corbyn who holds in his palm a very large box of matches.

The Mathematics of Treason: Tithing for Politicians.

PM May will not be going quietly. With her Prime Minister-ship, Brexit, EU control over the UK, Tory Control over parliament, and certification of the national rise of socialism at stake, her job is to cajole and lie-again- to an election weary Britain, one that has already suffered the distortions of the Scottish independence referendum (SNP), the ill-fated Brexit referendum, and then a national election- the one that saw May and her Cons club cling to power only by buying Irish DUP support for UK 1.5 Billion pounds. All this in thirty-three months.

The cycle has begun anew.

This time the stakes could not be higher. Ms May has already shown her desperation by offering bribes in the form of peerages to PM’s willing to vacate their current public anti-deal opposition. This week, Downing Street announced that John Hayes, a former MP and Transport Minister, who proclaims to be a staunch Euro-sceptic, would suddenly become Sir John in a rare honor. Earlier this week furious young Tory MPs claimed that now older Euro-sceptics had refused to put in the No Confidence letters against Theresa May because they were hoping for a peerage of their own Thus, Best for Britain champion Virendra Sharma said,

    “It seems like Downing Street will do anything to get their bad Brexit deal through.”

But it is Prime Minister Theresa May’s words that Britons should take notice of, particularly two all revealing sentences, that together show the strange mind and divisive, if not delusional, rational used to pass this bad deal. Beyond the oft-debunked claim by the PM that,  “Brexit is Brexit,” she would now, this week, have the MPs and the British public believe that:

    “This is the best deal we could get,” and, “We have to follow the will of the voter and pass [this] Brexit.”

The arrogance of these two statements is as incongruent as it is revealing.

Here, Ms. May would actually have the original Brexit voter believe that she has done such a good job negotiating this deal that her current Brexit- which it is not – must now be passed by parliament in order to honor the will of the Brexit voter- which it does not: the same voters that  would never have voted for Brexit in the form she has turned it into. Such is the delusion and arrogance of Ms May.

Ridiculous?  Maybe not.

Ms May must rely on getting her votes this time from parliament, not the people.  She needs 326 votes. Here lies the real threat to Britain.

There are 650 seats in House of Common so 326 is the magic majority. In terms of purported party loyalty, the Cons sit with 315 seats and an only coalition majority. But Labour’s opposition and 257 seats are fractured at best between true labour and faux labour members. The Scottish National Party is third with 35 followed by the Liberal-Democrats with 9. The remainder of 31 seats is split between nationalist parties like Ian Pasley’s Irish DUP, (10 seats) which have come out against the deal publicly, but has already shown it can be bought for the right price (1.5 Billion pounds), as in the last election of 2016.

The UK public must fear the Cons continued allegiance to Brussels. Yes, many have expressed outrage and insisted that they will not vote for this deal. However, with the Cons not having yet been successfully punished at the polls, it is surely a matter of time before the first defector- after a very lengthy and public set of excuses and self-serving rationale- joins the many other existing Tory yes votes. When that happens the floodgates will open and the defections will pour in for their just rewards to come. So, it is safe to assume that the Cons numbers will swell in support by the time of next Wednesday’s vote.

While Corbyn tries to hold ranks in order to achieve the Trifecta of defeating the deal, Ms May’s political future and becoming PM in one blow, there is, however, no chance of party unity on this vote. Like the Cons, it is just a matter of time and the next few days before the first public Labour defections and excuses- likely the same ones- “force” that slippery slope towards UK sovereignty to get suddenly steeper.

It is not likely that the minor parties will vote for the deal as they are ultra-nationalist, such as Plaid Cymru, since a ”yes” vote will see their platforms as utter hypocrisy and therefore doomed. If PM May and here supporters win, it will be the Conservative Party that will be convicted of the crime.

Ms May and the EU can start the count with a firm 90 seats, however. When it comes to UK parliamentary hypocrisy, the leader by far is the self-proclaimed Friends of Israel who are indeed just that. While voting for all things Israel and demonizing all reasonable and factual discussion of Britain’s burgeoning war machine or Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza so, they really hate Corbyn. It is fair to say that most will do as they are told and sell out Britain to central control and Zionist EU interests.

At this juncture, with a final parliamentary vote only days away, it should behoove the British voter to also look more closely at the failed attempt by Greece to leave the EU and the politicians then, who, in a matter of weeks, also turned tail on their country to also answer a call from Brussels.  Brexit, as it stands now before Parliament, is a terrible deal:  a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and a deal that will certainly punish the UK- as was the final result in Greece- for its attempt at sovereignty and populist democratic will. For all this, just like in Greece, is anathema to Brussels and just like in Greece the evil of Brussels does not just stop resistance; it puts it down and then punishes such indiscretions economically and brutally afterwards. Such it is today in Greece, as Alex Tsipras, PM in name only, goes hat in hand selling his countries airports, beaches, islands  and infrastructure for pennies on the Euro merely to service existing loans from Brussels in order to beg for more.

Greece was not a case study in leadership. It was a case study in political treason. Will it be repeated this coming Tuesday!

Regardless of the eventual total, what should be a very easy defeat for this treasonous “deal” being sold as a Brexit fait accompli, like Greece, the final tally may well be a disastrous defeat for Britain. It is likely that all of the UK will be following the final total of the vote. However, the total they should be counting is that of those MPs that turn on them and their country in the lead-up to Tuesday. For, if this deal is passed, it is these faces who must be remembered as the men and women who decided to thumb their nose at the British people and their country. And this they will surely do unless public pressure and outrage- which has not shown itself in decades- is made obvious to them all. Now.

Count Down to Tuesday…

The UK’s Telegraph reports 100 Tory MPs have now indicated they will vote the deal down in Parliament. But will they… after the days to come?

After Sunday’s EU unanimous vote, Ms May strangely offered to debate her deal for the first time, with Jeremy Corbyn. However, at the same time as the whole of Britain pricked-up their ears at this exciting news, Ms May backed out. Likely because she knows every one of her excuses will be cannon fodder for the Labour leader- and his rise in power.

The Express Newspaper polled3154 British adults about their opinion on the latest Brexit developments and no one is happy. Four in ten (42 per cent) of Britons oppose the deal, whilst only 19 per cent are in favor of it.

The remaining 39 per cent answered, “don’t know”. Here, the UK media has done its job via disinformation, thus giving the confidence to those PMs who do vote for the deal, that all will eventually be forgotten, regardless, by the next election.

Three of the many events from recent days should tell the UK voter just how important a real Brexit, one that does extricate Britain from EU control, really is and illustrate how much Brussels is worried about the outcome of this vote.

One: EU Parliament passed Theresa May’s deal in 38 minutes.

Nothing spells winning at the negotiating table like enthusiasm from only one side and this was the message on Sunday. With the last sticking point being the centuries-long contention between Spain and the UK regarding Gibraltar- one so explosive that the UK keeps a large military presence there today- PM May rolled over quickly on that too, leading Conservative MP, Andrew Bridgen to say,

    “It appears that there is no-one the prime minister will not betray to achieve her sell-out deal.”

It is safe to that Junker, Tusk and their twenty-seven EU brethren members understood the UK Prime Minister’s negotiating style in exactly the same way.

38 minutes?  Guess who won these negotiations?

Two: Italy.

Down south, this past week in Italy the newly elected Italian government, led by populist Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, and ethno-centrist Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, released their proposed annual national budget. Within twenty-four hours, the EU, Tusk and Junker stated clearly that they were not satisfied with Italy’s sovereign decision on how to spend its own national coffers. The EU demanded that Italy revise the budget to suit their unelected whims.

Three: Greece.

Britains  should consider this arbitrary bullying of Italy and of the UK. Then they should consider the sad EU imposed current condition of Greece. Next, they might dwell on the failed outcomes of previous elections within the nearby EU nations, and how similar movements were defeated in their nation as well. Last, they must pay closest of attention to what is actually in the souls of their own politicians and what they truly support.

If not these examples, then the UK citizens would do well to look at the state of subjugation, austerity and further poverty in all these countries and their own: the same countries who also saw, so recently, their hopes so quickly destroyed- like Brexit– by the false-flag allegiance of their elected politicians.

Then, Britons can collectively bend over-like their politicians- and begin to get used to taking it… themselves!

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Brett Redmayne-Titley has published over 150 in-depth articles over the past seven years for news agencies worldwide. Many have been translated. On-scene reporting from important current events has been an emphasis that has led to multi-part exposes on such topics as the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, NATO summit, KXL Pipeline, Porter Ranch Methane blow-out and many more. He can be reached at: live-on-scene@gmx.com. Prior articles can be viewed at his archive: www.watchingromeburn.uk. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.
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🌍 Theresa May halts Brexit deal vote to avoid defeat, causing Chaos
« Reply #54 on: December 11, 2018, 12:16:44 AM »
https://www.vox.com/2018/12/10/18134242/theresa-may-brexit-deal-postpone-vote

Theresa May halts Brexit deal vote to avoid defeat, throwing British politics into chaos
May’s decision to postpone a vote on her deal adds even more uncertainty to the future of Brexit.
By Jen Kirbyjen.kirby@vox.com Dec 10, 2018, 2:20pm EST


Prime Minister Theresa May on December 10, 2018, after she announced that she would delay the vote on her Brexit deal. Photo by Jack Taylor/Getty Images

British Prime Minister Theresa May is postponing the vote on her Brexit deal, a last-minute move to avoid almost certain defeat in the UK Parliament on Tuesday.

May’s decision confirmed what many had already predicted: that not only does she lack the votes to pass her agreement that outlines Britain’s divorce from the European Union, but that it would have gone down with a humiliating margin, potentially putting her government in jeopardy.

“If we went ahead and held the vote tomorrow, the deal would be defeated by a significant margin,” May told Parliament on Monday. “We will therefore defer the vote scheduled for tomorrow and not proceed to divide the house at this time.”

May is ostensibly pushing the vote to buy more time to win support, though where that support could come from is stubbornly unclear. Her deal is deeply unpopular with just about everyone — from the hard Brexiteers who want a clean split with Europe to the pro-Remain camp who want to maintain close ties to the EU.

And there’s only so much she can delay. The Brexit deadline is March 29, 2019, and the closer the UK gets to that date without a deal, the more likely the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, where the UK leaves the bloc without any contingency plans.

Members of Parliament have proposed other solutions — holding another referendum to let the British people decide Brexit, or negotiating an even softer Brexit — but there’s no political consensus behind any one of those remedies right now.

This vote postponement means Britain will remain in Brexit limbo for just a little bit longer — with really no idea of what comes next. Or as one UK political editor put it: “Dear lord above what a fucking shambles.”
May postponed the vote. What is going on?

May’s Brexit deal was headed for defeat on December 11, but it started to become increasingly obvious that the vote would be a massive loss and prove hugely embarrassing for May. We’re talking triple digits, in a 650-member Parliament.

So just one day before the vote, May pulled the deal — though there are still some questions on whether she can do this.

Opposition has hardened against the withdrawal agreement. The hard Brexiteers — those who want a clean break from the EU — see this document as potentially trapping the UK in a dependent relationship with the bloc indefinitely. Those who are pro-Europe, or ultimately want to Remain, view the deal as weakening the UK and leaving it in a much worse position economically and politically.

At issue is part of the Brexit deal referred to as the “Irish backstop,” which is basically an insurance policy to guarantee that the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU) remains open as the UK and EU try to negotiate their future relationship.

May’s deal seeks to preserve this open border through a complicated arrangement whereby the UK remains part of the EU customs union and Northern Ireland joins in some elements of the single market, which refers to the four fundamental freedoms of the EU: free movement of people, services, capital, and goods. The UK can’t unilaterally pull out of this setup, and opponents see this as potentially hitching the UK to the EU without an end date.

The government’s own legal advice, which May’s government was forced to publish after a historic contempt vote last week, confirmed those fears by warning that the UK could end up stuck in “protracted and repeated rounds of negotiations” for years.

May, addressing Parliament on Monday, made clear that any withdrawal agreement required protections for the Irish border. She said she would take the concerns of the UK MPs to EU leaders this week, ahead of an already scheduled summit meeting in Brussels with EU leaders on Thursday and Friday. But she reiterated that any deal had to include a backstop, and was very vague on her strategy.

“I spoke to a number of EU leaders over the weekend, and in advance of the European council I will go to see my counterparts in other member states and the leadership of the council and the commission,” May told Parliament in her Monday remarks. “I will discuss with them the clear concerns that this House [of Commons] has expressed.”

It’s doubtful the EU will give concessions on the backstop. It took more than a year of tortured negotiations to reach this compromise deal. The EU has repeatedly said it’s this deal or no deal at all — whether by breaking up without an agreement or canceling Brexit altogether. On the Irish border, they’ve also been firm: A backstop must be in place in any withdrawal agreement to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Even if May can eke out a few concessions from the Europeans, they will be minor. The fundamentals of the agreement won’t change — which means the deal’s defeat has been delayed but probably not averted.
May delays vote as Brexit deadline looms

May defended her decision to postpone the vote, though she didn’t really offer a great solution for this mess. She repeated arguments she’s made before: She’s entrusted to make a Brexit deal that works for the UK, and that even though she personally wanted to Remain, it is her “duty is to honor the result of that vote.”

It’s this deal or no deal, she said, and she reiterated her stance that other options, such as a second referendum, would divide the country even further.

When MPs will vote on the Brexit deal still isn’t clear, and there are legal questions over how late a vote can be held ahead of the March 29, 2019, Brexit deadline. The latest guess is for sometime after Christmas, possibly in January, but no date has been scheduled so far.

This is important for a number of reasons. For one, the UK Parliament voted last week to give itself a meaningful say on a Brexit “plan B” if May’s deal failed. If May forces the vote into January or later, that will limit the time a (very divided) Parliament can even come up with or implement a fallback plan.

This again raises the specter of a no-deal Brexit, which would be bad for the EU but potentially catastrophic for the UK. The UK’s membership in the EU will expire, deal or no deal: 3 million EU citizens living in the UK and 1 million Britons living in other EU countries would lose all automatic rights and protections overnight. Air travel in the UK would grind to an immediate halt. British supermarkets could run out of food. And that’s just a few of the dramatic outcomes.

May, in her address to Parliament, said she was stepping up no-deal contingency planning, according to the Guardian, even as she warned that such a scenario would be very, very bad.

“If you want to leave without a deal, be upfront that in the short term, this would cause significant economic damage to parts of our country who can least afford to bear the burden,” she said.
What happens next? Honest answer: No one knows.

In November, after May and the EU agreed to the Brexit deal, Anand Menon, director of an independent Brexit research institute called UK in a Changing Europe, told me that British politics “faced a number of very implausible outcomes.”

“We might have an election. We might have a referendum. We might have no deal. The prime minister’s deal might be accepted,” he said. “They’re all massively implausible, okay? But what we know is that one of them is going to happen.”

A Brexit-deal vote delay wasn’t on his list then, but his thesis still stands: Anything can happen, and no one really knows what that might be.

Here is what we do know: Parliament likely won’t be voting on the Brexit deal Tuesday. It seems almost impossible that the EU will reopen negotiations with the UK. As one expert told me, the EU might finesse some language, but the substance of the withdrawal agreement isn’t changing.

The UK remains seriously split over what to do next. Some are calling for a second referendum — another “people’s vote” to decide the future of Brexit. It’s still not clear what such a referendum would look like, though, or what it would ask: a vote on May’s Brexit deal? A Leave or Remain do-over vote?

Proponents of a second referendum believe that enough voters will have witnessed the Brexit mess and will opt to Remain on a second try. Their case has been bolstered by a Monday decision by the European Court of Justice that said the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50 — the mechanism of the EU treaty that the UK used to withdraw from the bloc — and basically cancel Brexit altogether, without the approval of the other 27 EU member states and as long as it remained consistent with UK laws.

Other MPs are arguing to just go back and argue for a softer Brexit — what you’ll hear referred to as the Norway-style deal — which means the UK would remain a member of the single market. This, however, won’t fly with the hard Brexiteers, as they’d have to follow all the EU rules, including accepting the free movement of people.

Then there’s May’s future as prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, has said May’s government is in “disarray” and she should step aside and call general elections. That could put Labour in power, though it’s not clear the party has a real solution to Brexit that the EU would accept.

Other opposition parties, including the Scottish National Party (SNP), are pushing Corbyn to move on a no-confidence vote in Parliament, which could remove May from power and potentially trigger general elections. For a no-confidence vote in Parliament to succeed, Conservatives or members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the 10 members of the Northern Ireland party that prop up May’s minority government, would have to join the opposition.

A number of Conservatives and the DUP may not support May’s deal, but they probably hate the possibility of a Corbyn prime ministership even more.

May could also resign, though her decision to postpone the vote seems to be a signal that she’s not quite ready to give up power.

As Parliament is tearing itself apart, the public is marching in the streets both for and against Brexit and the British pound is plummeting. Britain is no closer to figuring out Brexit, with just 109 days to go.
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🌍 Brexit bust-up, things get heated in the studio - BBC Newsnight
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2018, 02:14:36 AM »
Another good on-camera fight from across the pond!

RE

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🌍 Theresa May Faces No-Confidence Vote Wednesday Over Brexit Anger
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2018, 08:55:47 AM »
If she loses this vote, all hell will break loose in the markets.

RE

Europe
Theresa May Faces No-Confidence Vote Wednesday Over Brexit Anger
3:53

    Download

December 12, 20186:59 AM ET
Bill Chappell


Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May faces a vote on her leadership Wednesday, as debate rages over how the U.K. should exit the European Union. She spoke about the vote to the media outside No. 10 Downing St. in London.
Toby Melville/Reuters

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting to keep her job as members of her Conservative Party seek to oust her in a no-confidence vote Wednesday. May has been unable to shore up support for the Brexit deal she negotiated with the European Union.

"I will contest that vote with everything I've got," May said outside of No. 10 Downing St. The vote on her leadership that will take place from 6 to 8 p.m. local time (1 to 3 p.m. ET).

"If she wins, she can serve for another year without another challenge from her party," NPR's Frank Langfitt reports from London. "If she loses, this triggers a leadership contest within the Conservative Party. The winner of that contest would not immediately become prime minister, and there could be heavy pressure to call a general election."

If May loses her leadership post, it could trigger a "no-deal" exit when the U.K. leaves the EU on March 29, meaning the country would have few formal trading mechanisms in place to interact with the bloc it has belonged to for decades.
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With all eyes now on the U.K. Parliament, there is speculation over what the outcome might bring. You can watch the proceedings in the House of Commons online.

"Traditionally, winning a no-confidence vote by a small margin might force a Conservative leader to step down anyway," Langfitt reports, "but the United Kingdom is facing its biggest political crisis in decades, and past traditions seem to no longer apply."

To survive as prime minister, May must get the votes of 158 members of Parliament. According to the BBC, 174 lawmakers from her party "have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against."

If May loses, the Conservatives would then hold a leadership election to select her replacement. Calling that an extra burden during a time of national crisis, Conservative Member of Parliament Ken Clarke asked May in the House of Commons on Wednesday, "Can my right honorable friend think of anything more unhelpful, irrelevant and irresponsible than for the Conservative Party to embark on weeks of a Conservative leadership election?"

May replied that a new election would likely extend well into January, meaning that "the new leader — were a new leader to come in — that one of the first things they would have to do would be to either extend Article 50 or rescind Article 50, and that would mean either delaying or stopping Brexit."

Article 50 is the exit clause in the EU's constitutional rules; it's the law May invoked in March 2017, setting up this March's Brexit deadline.

The call for a vote on May's political fate comes two days after she delayed a crucial vote on the Brexit deal she negotiated with the EU, acknowledging that the draft agreement had no chance of being approved in Parliament.
Buffeted By Brexit Woes, Theresa May Embarks On Whirlwind European Tour
Europe
Buffeted By Brexit Woes, Theresa May Embarks On Whirlwind European Tour

May left Britain on Tuesday to meet with European leaders, hoping to get help in changing the deal enough to win over the doubters back home. But she returned home empty-handed — and she was briefly trapped in her own car as German Chancellor Angela Merkel awaited her. With the U.K.'s leader unable to get out of a German sedan with an apparently sticky door, the moment was called both awkward and symbolic of her struggles in office.

The process of reaching a final Brexit deal has foundered, in large part, on the complicated and essential question of how the U.K. and EU will treat Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.) and the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) short of enforcing a hard border.

To trigger Wednesday's vote, Conservatives who are unhappy with the way May has managed Brexit submitted 48 no-confidence letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, a group that represents the Conservatives' rank-and-file membership.

Still, George Parker, political editor for the Financial Times, recently told NPR that the prime minister seems to be more popular than her Brexit deal:

"She's dogged. She's determined. She's got a real sense of duty. And it's interesting that although the Brexit deal she's negotiated seems to upset just about everyone, she herself has actually gone up in the public estimation over the last few weeks. I think people see her standing there hour after hour in the bear pit at the House of Commons being attacked by people on her own side — mainly men, it has to be said. And I think it — her sort of doggedness actually resonates with people.

"So although she's often seen as rather an unimaginative politician and just really blundering her way through this Brexit morass, in the end, people quite respect the fact that she's still there and she's still standing."

Both May and her political opponents have had an eye on the clock as the March 29 deadline approaches, with each side seeking to put pressure on the other to make concessions. And in the background, there has been a recognition that the Brexit process will not be a tidy and painless process, no matter who's in charge.

When asked Tuesday about a possible no-confidence vote, Parker said, "it will solve nothing. It will be an act of huge and damaging self-indulgence, I think."
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Re: 🌍 Brexit bust-up, things get heated in the studio - BBC Newsnight
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2018, 09:18:55 AM »
Another good on-camera fight from across the pond!

RE
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/RhUOnkb230w" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/RhUOnkb230w</a>

"Alistair, will you shut the fuck up and let me finish a sentence?"

Or words to that effect from Jenni.

Not so much of a "good on camera fight" as yet another example of a boorish man talking over a woman trying to make a point, just like we see here all the time. Just garden variety rudeness. And like Orange Jesus tried to do yesterday with his "Surprise! Televise!" meeting yesterday at the WH.

Pelosi handed him his orange ass, and Trumpi gave Nancy and Chuck an early Xmas gift by claiming and owning the pending government shutdown.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

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🌍 Theresa May, Facing the End, Makes a Last-Ditch Appeal for Moderation
« Reply #58 on: December 12, 2018, 10:28:17 AM »
A "No Deal" Brexit would be VERY entertaining!  :icon_mrgreen:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/hmZFHjQfx-o" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/hmZFHjQfx-o</a>

RE

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/europe/theresa-may-no-confidence-brexit.html

Theresa May, Facing the End, Makes a Last-Ditch Appeal for Moderation
Video

Lawmakers Challenge Theresa May Ahead Of No Confidence Vote
By Reuters
Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain is fighting for her political life after a right-wing faction in her party triggered a no confidence vote. She then faced tough questions and criticisms from other lawmakers in Parliament.Published OnDec. 12, 2018CreditCreditBen Stansall/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Ellen Barry

    Dec. 12, 2018

LONDON — It was almost a relief, on Wednesday, to see Theresa May start yelling.

The British prime minister’s voice was hoarse and her face was pale, and who could blame her? That morning, a right-wing faction in her own party had triggered a no-confidence vote that would take place in the evening, so Mrs. May was possibly hours away from the end of her premiership. Her two years of negotiations on exiting the European Union were a hair’s breadth from ending in a meltdown.

At the weekly Question Time in Parliament, she leaned over the podium toward opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn and spat out her disdain for him. She was seething.

“All he wants to do is create chaos in our economy, division in our society and damage to our economy,” she said, hollering to be heard over the cheers from her backbenchers. And Mr. Corbyn raged right back, accusing Mrs. May of leading her fractured country into a deepening, increasingly risky political crisis.

“Many people in this country find planning ahead impossible,” he yelled, “because all they see is chaos at the heart of this government!”

For many months, Mrs. May had maintained a robotic calm about the unraveling of her Brexit negotiation, pretending not to see that it was speeding toward a brick wall.

That pretense came to an end this week, when she abruptly canceled a Parliamentary vote on her European Union withdrawal agreement rather than suffer a humiliating defeat. Now, not only was she facing a no-confidence vote, but enemies in her own party were so confident that they had set up a headquarters they called “The Kill Zone.”

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In the few hours that remained to save her job, Mrs. May had one argument to put forward in her own defense: Changing leaders so close to the March 29 deadline for withdrawal from the European Union, she argued, could open the door to something worse, a Labour government or a reversal of Brexit. Further infighting between Conservatives, will “only create more division, just as we should be standing together to serve our country,” she argued.

“The British people want us to get on with it,” she said, not for the first time. “The Conservatives must not be a single-issue party. We are a party of the whole nation. Moderate, pragmatic, mainstream.”

Moderation has been Mrs. May’s selling point the whole time. In the chaotic wake of the 2016 referendum, she offered herself to the country as a pair of “safe hands,” the epitome of old-fashioned, small-c conservatism in a time of turmoil. She had devoted much of her life to the Conservative Party, stuffing envelopes for party events as a teenager and meeting her husband at a dance for Tory undergraduates.
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But upon taking power, she seemed perhaps a bit too old-fashioned for her country. The Conservative Party was no longer moderate, embracing an anti-European agenda that had been dismissed for 20 years as too radical. Mrs. May was reflexively secretive about the progress of negotiations. She tried hard to win over Conservative hard-liners, but made little effort to win allies among Remainers and centrists.

On Wednesday, facing her possible removal, Mrs. May did not even try to invoke loyalty, instead casting herself as the least-bad option.

“Delivering the Brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone,” she said. “I have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since I became prime minister. And I stand ready to finish the job.”

The debate with Mr. Corbyn, just hours before her party members were scheduled to vote on her future, revealed a flash of something not seen from Mrs. May in a long time.

“She has some fight left in her,” said Katie Perrior, who served briefly as Mrs. May’s director of communications when she became prime minister. “She didn’t looked scared or worried, she looked in control. Whenever her back’s against the wall politically, she comes out fighting.”

Then it was only a matter of numbers. Mrs. May needs the support of 158 of her party members to survive the evening no-confidence vote, and dozens of Tories took to Twitter to declare themselves on one side or the other.
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    I am backing @theresa_may tonight. Being PM most difficult job imaginable right now and the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long leadership contest. Brexit was never going to be easy but she is the best person to make sure we actually leave the EU on March 29
    — Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt) December 12, 2018

Others, like Henry Smith, promised to vote against her.

    Being very busy doesn’t necessarily mean an individual is being productive. I admire Theresa May’s stamina but as Conservative Leader and Prime Minister she’s seen Brexit as a problem to be mitigated not a global opportunity. Therefore, regrettably, I have lost confidence in her.
    — Henry Smith MP 🇬🇧 (@HenrySmithUK) December 12, 2018

Arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg declared himself in Latin, remarking, “Hail and farewell,” a phrase used by the Latin poet Catullus in a eulogy for his brother.

    Ave atque vale. https://t.co/NiiCLlxztH
    — Jacob Rees-Mogg (@Jacob_Rees_Mogg) December 12, 2018

At Question Time, noisy applause followed a remark by Kenneth Clarke, a Conservative who had argued passionately to remain in the European Union.

“At a time of grave national crisis on an issue which we all agree has huge importance to future generations, can my right honorable friend think of anything more unhelpful, irrelevant and irresponsible than for the Conservative Party to embark on weeks of a conservative leadership election?” he asked Mrs. May.

Mrs. May, with apparent relief, agreed.
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🌍 Brexit latest: I'm confused... what just happened?
« Reply #59 on: December 15, 2018, 06:39:41 AM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46551986

Brexit latest: I'm confused... what just happened?
By Rob Watson UK political correspondent, BBC World Affairs Unit


    15 December 2018

    Brexit

Media captionBrexit battles: How May lived to fight another day

It's been an eventful week in UK politics, to put it mildly.

Prime Minister Theresa May began the week hoping to push through her vision for Brexit. Days later, she survived a coup from within her own Conservative party.

But how did this happen? What does it mean? And what comes next?

Politics is all about numbers and dates.

This week, 650 members of the UK parliament were supposed to vote on the deal Theresa May struck with EU members on how exactly the UK should leave the EU.

Instead, 317 Conservatives had a vote of no confidence in her leadership. She won, but by only 200 votes to 117, leaving her weakened and her party more divided than ever.

What's next?

The government must hold a vote on Mrs May's deal by 21 January or come up with another plan. But with little chance of her winning such a vote and no sign of a Plan B, this looks like a profound political crisis.
How significant was this week?

With little more than 100 days to go there's still no certainty as to how, or even if, the UK will leave the European Union.

This week, Theresa May delayed a parliamentary vote on her deal with the EU, knowing she would lose. She narrowly survived a vote of no confidence in her leadership and then failed to win major concessions from fellow European leaders after a desperate plea for help.

All this leaves the UK in a profound political crisis with no end to it in sight.
How did this come about?

As British politics appeared to descend into chaos this week, one senior Conservative MP remarked that Brexit had sparked nothing short of a revolution that had engulfed both the country's major parties.

Whether that's precisely the right word or not, it's clear this "revolution" or current crisis was indeed sparked on 23 June 2016 when the majority of voters voted for something - in Brexit - many elected British politicians then and now think is a catastrophic mistake.

    Brexit: A really simple guide
    Runners and riders: Who could replace Theresa May?

Two and half years on, as Mrs May is finding to her cost, there's still no consensus among those politicians as to what to do about the result of that referendum. It's as simple but as seismic as that.
What was all that nonsense with the mace?

This chaotic and revolutionary-seeming period in British politics was symbolised best, perhaps, by an MP from the opposition Labour Party dramatically grabbing and making off with the ceremonial mace in the House of Commons after Mrs May called off the much-expected vote on her Brexit deal.
Media captionHow the mace drama unfolded

The mace represents the Queen in Parliament and debate cannot continue if it is removed.

In any normal week, such a violation of parliamentary decorum would have stolen all the headlines, but these are not normal times. Instead, this week is likely to be remembered as the one where the divisions within the governing Conservative Party over Europe became more vicious than ever.

They certainly became more public, with the ultimately failed political coup against the prime minister from the hardest of hard Brexiteers in her party who want the hardest of hard breaks from Europe.
What happens next?

At this point only two things, or should I say dates, are certain.

By law, Theresa May is obliged to put her deal to a vote by 21 January 2019, or go to Parliament with a Plan B.

    How long can Theresa May survive as PM?

The other date of course is Brexit day: 29 March 2019. Mrs May's strategy appears to be to delay putting her unloved plan to a vote until the very last minute, hoping the ticking Brexit clock will be enough to frighten MPs into finally backing it.

If that fails, she'll be facing a terrible dilemma.

On the one hand she could somehow cancel, delay, soften or hold another referendum on Brexit and risk alienating the 17.4 million people who voted Leave.

But on the other hand, she could go for a so-called Hard Brexit (where few of the existing ties between the UK and the EU are retained) and risk causing untold damage to the UK's economy and standing in the world for years to come.
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