AuthorTopic: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!  (Read 22957 times)

Offline RE

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2017, 12:18:18 AM »
When I read things like this I realise how pathetic all my efforts to try and change the world have been.  How is it possible to fight a hydra-headed monster like this?

Unless you are a Billionaire or part of the Political Elite, trying to change the world is an exercise in futility.  All you can do is observe it and be bemused.

RE
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Offline RE

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Everything you need to know about whether the House of Lords will block Brexit
« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2017, 08:17:33 AM »
http://www.businessinsider.com/house-of-lords-block-brexit-article-50-eu-theresa-may-2017-2?r=UK&IR=T

Everything you need to know about whether the House of Lords will block Brexit


    Adam Bienkov

House of Lords debate whether to block Brexit Daniel Leal-Olivas PA Wire/PA Images

    House of Lords begin two-week debate on whether to pass or amend the Brexit bill
    If passed Theresa May will have power to trigger Article 50
    Peers have submitted more than a dozen amendments
    Lords want to force 'meaningful vote' on Brexit deal
    EU citizens could be guaranteed rights

LONDON – The House of Lords will on Monday begin a two-day debate on whether they should block Article 50 — the two-year process by which Britain will leave the EU.
Is there any chance they will vote against it?

Not really. The Lords are normally reluctant to vote down any legislation that has been passed by the House of Commons, particularly when the Commons have not even amended that legislation. Couple that with the firestorm that any vote against Brexit would cause and the chances of peers rejecting this bill look vanishingly slim to nonexistent.
So it's all done then?

Hold on a second, they're not finished yet. The Lords have submitted more than a dozen amendments to the bill, including eight from Labour's frontbench. Given that the government doesn't have a majority in the Lords there is a good chance that at least one of these amendments will pass when peers vote on them next week.
What are they?

The amendments cover similar ground to those submitted and voted down by MPs earlier this month. They include calls for the government to regularly update Parliament on the progress of negotiations, calls to retain single market membership and calls to hold a second referendum. All of these are likely to fail. However two amendments — a call for the rights of EU citizens living in the UK to be guaranteed and a call for a commitment to allow Parliament a final 'meaningful vote' on Theresa May's Brexit deal — have a much greater chance of passing.
What's a 'meaningful vote' mean?

Labour want to force the government to commit to a parliamentary vote on whatever draft Brexit deal she secures, before it is sent for ratification by the European Parliament. The government have already promised such a vote, however they have made clear that any vote against would simply lead to the UK falling out of the EU without a deal. It would be a 'deal or no deal' vote and would not force May to renegotiate a new deal. Labour aren't satisfied with this.

So what happens if any of the Lords' amendments pass?

The bill would then pass back to the House of Commons where MPs would debate and vote on the Lords' amendments. Given that the Commons have already rejected an almost identical set of amendments it is highly unlikely that they would change their mind and decide to accept these. They would therefore reject the amendments and the bill would then pass back to the Lords where potentially this game of ping pong would continue.
So peers could hold up Brexit indefinitely?

Technically yes. Practically no. The shadow leader of the House of Lords, Angela Smith has already stated that there will be no "extended ping pong" between the houses, telling the BBC that Labour did not want to "frustrate" the triggering of Article 50 - currently tabled to happen before the end of March. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a certain amount of back and forth. Labour peer Lord Mandelson told Andrew Marr on Sunday that while "the House of Commons must prevail... I hope [they] will not throw in the towel early.”
So it's all for show?

Quite probably yes. If the Lords do amend the bill then it will cause much huffing and puffing on Fleet Street, including more off-the-record Downing Street briefings about scrapping the Lords, but ultimately the Brexit bill is still highly likely to pass with enough time for Theresa May to fulfill her Article 50 timetable.
What happens then?

That's when the real fun begins. Britain will immediately begin it's negotiations with the other 27 EU countries about our future relationship together. The British government is keen to begin negotiations on trade and transitional arrangements straight away, however many other EU leaders want to leave those until after the thorny issue of Britain's divorce bill of up to €60 billion is settled.

Whatever happens, the UK will only have 18 months or so before the deal will have to go for ratification. And that's if they even have one. If no deal is secured, Britain would automatically fall out of the EU on WTO terms. After that point Britain would either embark on a glorious journey to the sunlit uplands of a bright new prosperous post-EU future, or begin its descent into becoming a post-industrial tax haven vassal state of Donald Trump. It all depends on your point of view.
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2017, 02:44:24 PM »
Quote
They would therefore reject the amendments and the bill would then pass back to the Lords where potentially this game of ping pong would continue.
So peers could hold up Brexit indefinitely?

Technically yes.

Complete bullshit.  Bills only get 3 readings, the Lords can't override the third.

Where do they find journalists willing to write about Parliamentary process when they don't understand how it works?
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Offline RE

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Theresa May faces likely defeat in Lords over rights of EU citizens
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2017, 01:43:39 AM »
More Ping-Pong on Brexit.  ::)

RE

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/28/theresa-may-faces-defeat-in-lords-over-rights-of-eu-citizens

 Theresa May faces likely defeat in Lords over rights of EU citizens

Peers support Labour amendment to Brexit bill to protect European residents in UK after article 50 is triggered
Houses of parliament with EU flag held by protester


The home secretary, Amber Rudd, wrote to peers on Tuesday to persuade them not to vote against the government. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Anushka Asthana, Heather Stewart and Peter Walker

Wednesday 1 March 2017 04.15 EST
First published on Tuesday 28 February 2017 17.00 EST

The Conservative government is likely to be defeated in the House of Lords over the issue of securing the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, despite a last minute plea from the home secretary, Amber Rudd.

Peers are lining up to support a Labour party amendment – which now has the formal backing of a Conservative, a Liberal Democrat and a crossbencher – calling on ministers to bring forward proposals to protect Europeans resident in Britain within three months of article 50 being triggered.
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Losing a vote during the committee stage in the House of Lords means the Brexit bill will have to enter a so-called ping pong between the Houses of Commons and Lords, delaying its passage into law by at least one week.

Rudd sent a letter to peers on Tuesday in an effort to persuade peers not to vote against the government, insisting that there was no question of treating European citizens with “anything other than the utmost respect”.

She said that their status would be the top priority once negotiations were underway but argued that the government could not act unilaterally over the issue because it would risk the status of British people living across the continent.

“They could end up facing two years of uncertainty if any urgency to resolve their status were removed by the UK making a one-sided guarantee,” she said. Rudd argued that the hold-up was because a few EU countries, including Germany, had insisted that they would not negotiate anything linked to Brexit until article 50 had been triggered.
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Her letter suggests that the government is not prepared to strike a compromise with peers by setting out a formal promise to bring forward plans within three months, with sources saying they are keen for the Brexit bill to be passed without any amendments.

She also made clear that there would be a separate opportunity to debate and vote on the future immigration system put forward by the government when legislation is laid down in the future.

Labour’s leader in the Lords, Lady Smith, called Rudd’s message “deeply disappointing” and said it had paved the way for a government defeat over the issue.
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“To continue to use people as bargaining chips in this way is not only shameful but could have a dire impact on the UK’s economy and essential services,” she said.

“Confirming the rights of those EU citizens living in the UK can only be of benefit to our citizens worried about their future in EU countries but the government’s approach seems to be to sit back and wait for others to blink first.”

The Labour amendment calls for EU citizens and family members legally resident in Britain by the time the Brexit bill is passed – in mid March – to be treated in the same way after Brexit as they are now.

A Labour Lords source said it was highly unusual for peers to force a vote on legislation at this stage, as usually they would hope to keep pressing the government for further concessions.

“A committee stage vote in the Lords is as rare as a white rhino,” he said, but added that it was inevitable “because it is clear that we have exhausted the deliberation and dialogue with the government and we would be wasting our time to have the debate again at report stage. This needs to go back to the Commons to be debated”.

Other issues to be discussed on Wednesday – including the question of a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal – are likely to only come to a vote next week.

The Brexit bill’s first stumbling block comes as David Davis told cabinet ministers they must be prepared for the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without a trade agreement in place. The prime minister’s spokesman said the Brexit secretary had made clear to colleagues that they must “prepare not just for a negotiated settlement but the unlikely scenario where no mutually satisfactory agreement can be reached”.

The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, also spoke at the event claiming he was fed up with people “droning and moaning” about the risks of Brexit.

The foreign secretary did not name Sir John Major, but made clear that the former prime minister was among those who had been warning that “the sky was about to fall in”.

“And I feel like saying: ‘Come off it, sunshine.’ Every generation hears its prognostications of gloom. And look at us today. We are living longer than ever before. We are healthier than ever before,” he said.

Earlier, former chancellor George Osborne issued a stark warning to May about the risks of leaving the European Union without a trade deal,. He said: “Let’s make sure that we go on doing trade with our biggest export market, otherwise withdrawing from the single market will be the biggest act of protectionism in British history.”
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Offline RE

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Ministers 'will seek to overturn Brexit bill defeat'
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2017, 12:40:56 AM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39136739

Ministers 'will seek to overturn Brexit bill defeat'


    33 minutes ago
    From the section UK Politics

The government will seek to overturn the defeat inflicted on its Brexit bill by the House of Lords, sources say.

Peers defied ministers when they voted by 358 to 256 to guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK after Brexit.

The government said it was "disappointed" at the first defeat for its draft legislation.

MPs will have the chance to remove the Lords' amendment when the bill returns to the House of Commons.

    Kuenssberg: What next?
    Brexit: All you need to know
    Reality Check: How many EU nationals in the UK?
    UK has 'moral' duty to Gibraltar on Brexit

Before then, next Tuesday, the Lords will consider backing other possible amendments to the bill, which authorises Theresa May to trigger Brexit.

Government sources said the bill should simply be about invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, beginning formal negotiations.

The vote came after a heated debate in the Lords where the government was accused of treating EU citizens like "bargaining chips".

Ministers attempted to stave off defeat, saying the issue was a priority for the government but should be tackled as part of a deal that also protected UK expats overseas.

The amendment backed by the Lords requires the government to introduce proposals within three months of Article 50 to ensure EU citizens in the UK have the same residence rights after Brexit.




The Department for Exiting the EU said: "We are disappointed the Lords have chosen to amend a bill that the Commons passed without amendment.

"The bill has a straightforward purpose - to enact the referendum result and allow the government to get on with the negotiations."

The government said its position had "repeatedly been made clear", saying it wanted to guarantee the rights of EU citizens and British nationals "as early as we can".
Now what?

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg

Government sources tonight sound relaxed.

They knew this vote was likely to go against them. And it's an issue that the government believes it has a clear defence on.

Indeed, even during Theresa May's leadership campaign before she moved into Number 10, she articulated the same position. In her view, it would be unwise to guarantee the rights of the three million or so EU citizens in this country, before other EU countries are ready to do the same for British citizens abroad.

For her opponents that's distasteful, immoral even, because many people who have made their lives in the UK could be used, so the phrase goes, as "bargaining chips" in a negotiation.

There is little sign however of the government giving way despite the defeat.

Read the rest of Laura's blog

Former Lords leader Lord Strathclyde said the vote represented "wrong-headed and muddled thinking".

He said it was difficult to see where a compromise between the government's position and that taken by the Lords could be found.
Media captionLord Strathclyde: "We've turned British citizens living in the EU into bargaining chips"

Crossbencher Lord Kerslake, a former head of the civil service, said the vote showed that the Lords overwhelmingly felt the rights of EU citizens in the UK was an issue that should be sorted out now.

He told BBC One's Breakfast that while the government had given assurances that it wanted to resolve the matter as soon as possible, there was a risk it could take two years if the EU decided it wants all issues included in a single deal.

Labour's shadow Lords leader Baroness Smith said there was a "moral", a "legal" and a "pragmatic" case in favour of guaranteeing EU nationals' rights.
Media captionBaroness Smith: "People are not bargaining chips"

Seven Conservative peers voted in favour of the amendment, which was proposed by Labour with the support of the Liberal Democrats.

Shortly after the Lords vote, MEPs in the European Parliament debated the status of EU migrants in the UK.

Justice Commissioner Vera Jourova told MEPs that EU citizens in the UK and British citizens elsewhere in the EU "deserve to know what their rights will be" after Brexit.

She said the matter should be addressed "as soon as possible" but that negotiations could only begin after the UK has triggered Article 50.
The stages the Brexit bill needs to go through to become law:

(It is currently at committee stage in the House of Lords)

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Offline RE

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Brexit: UK 'not obliged' to pay divorce bill say peers
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2017, 12:42:08 AM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39154218

Brexit: UK 'not obliged' to pay divorce bill say peers


Talks on the UK's exit are expected to start in the Spring. Photo AP

The UK could exit the EU without paying anything if there is no post-Brexit deal, a group of peers has claimed.

The government would be in a "strong" legal position if the two-year Article 50 talks ended with no deal, the Lords EU Financial Affairs Committee said.

But it warned failure to reach any kind of financial terms would undermine PM Theresa May's aim of securing continued favourable access to EU markets.

It has been reported the EU may demand a "divorce bill" of up to £52bn.

    Reality Check: EU budget and transitional deal
    Brexit: All you need to know

Mrs May has warned the EU against punishing the UK for voting to leave in last year's referendum but several EU leaders have said the UK cannot enjoy better arrangements outside the EU than it currently has.

The question of what, if anything, the UK remains financially liable for after Brexit is likely to be one of the flashpoints in negotiations when they begin in earnest.

Potential sticking points are likely to include:

    Whether already-agreed contributions to the EU budget should be honoured and up to what point
    What the UK should pay to continue to participate in EU programmes such as Erasmus
    Whether the UK chooses to pay to retain access to the single market on a transitional basis

Image copyright Reuters
Image caption The UK contributes to structural funds designed to reduce inequality across Europe

The cross-party committee said talk of billions in pounds in liabilities was "hugely speculative" and there was a case that there may be no upfront cost to leaving.

"Although there are competing interpretations, we conclude that if agreement is not reached, all EU law - including provisions concerning ongoing financial contributions and machinery for adjudication - will cease to apply, and the UK would be subject to no enforceable obligation to make any financial contribution at all," it said.

"This would be undesirable for the remaining member states, who would have to decide how to plug the hole in the budget created by the UK's exit without any kind of transition.

"It would also damage the prospects of reaching friendly agreement on other issues.

"Nonetheless, the ultimate possibility of the UK walking away from negotiations without incurring financial commitments provides an important context."
'Concrete'

The peers, led by the LibDem peer Baroness Falkner of Margravine, said some member states could take legal action against the UK for any outstanding liabilities but it was "questionable" whether any international court could have jurisdiction.

"Even though we consider that the UK will not be legally obliged to pay into the EU budget after Brexit, the issue will be a prominent factor in withdrawal negotiations.

"The government will have to set the financial and political costs of making such payments against potential gains from other elements of the negotiations."

During their inquiry, the committee was told the UK had signed up to "concrete" commitments under the terms of the Multi-Annual Financial Framework, which sets a ceiling for EU spending up to 2020.

Professor Takis Tridimas, from Kings College London, said he believed these were legally binding under existing EU treaties.

But he said they could be amended in "unforeseeable circumstances", if all member states agreed, and that the Brexit vote would constitute such a circumstance.
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Offline RE

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MPs slam Theresa May over lack of a plan if Brexit talks collapse
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2017, 04:37:47 AM »
I just can't wait to see what the markets do if/when they actually DO trigger Article 50.  :o

RE

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/11/brexit-trigger-article-50-theresa

MPs slam Theresa May over lack of a plan if Brexit talks collapse
PM plans to trigger article 50 ‘within days’ but all-party parliamentary committee says she is putting national interest at risk


Theresa May preparing to address a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels last Thursday. Photograph: Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP

Toby Helm and Tracy McVeigh

Saturday 11 March 2017 17.30 EST
Last modified on Saturday 11 March 2017 19.53 EST

Theresa May has been accused by a powerful parliamentary committee of putting the national interest at risk by failing to prepare for the “real prospect” that two years of Brexit negotiations could end with no deal.

The criticism – and warnings of dire consequences – is levelled at May by the all-party foreign affairs select committee only days before she is expected to trigger article 50 – the formal process that will end the UK’s 44-year membership of the European Union.
Brexiters and Remainers both fail to grasp the challenges facing Britain
Tom Kibasi
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After a detailed inquiry into what would happen if Brexit negotiations failed, the Tory chairman of the committee, Crispin Blunt, a supporter of leaving the EU, said: “The possibility of ‘no deal’ is real enough to require the government to plan how to deal with it.

“But there is no evidence to indicate that this is receiving the consideration it deserves or that serious contingency planning is under way. The government has repeatedly said that it will walk away from a ‘bad’ final deal. That makes preparing for ‘no deal’ all the more essential.

“Last year, the committee described the government’s failure to plan for a leave vote as an act of gross negligence. This government must not make a comparable mistake.”

His committee’s report says Brexit talks could break down for several reasons, including a deal being torpedoed at the 11th hour by the European parliament. The UK would be cast adrift and have to trade on World Trade Organisation rules, an outcome that would risk serious economic damage.

“It is clear from our evidence that a complete breakdown in negotiations represents a very destructive outcome, leading to mutually assured damage to the EU and the UK. Both sides would suffer economic losses and harm to their international reputations. Individuals and businesses in both the UK and EU could be subject to considerable uncertainty and legal confusion. It is a key national and European Union interest that such a situation is avoided.”

The conclusions are likely to embolden MPs – including a number of Tory rebels – who will insist on Monday that the government guarantee them a vote before any decision is made to leave the EU without a deal.

While amendments passed in the House of Lords are likely to be defeated, Tory MPs are determined to extract pledges from the government, even if they are not written into the Brexit bill.
The House of Lords amendments will probably be defeated.
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The House of Lords amendments will probably be defeated. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Government whips are confident that the bill will gain royal assent by the middle of the week, allowing the prime minister to write to European Council president Donald Tusk to tell him that the UK is ready to begin formal divorce talks.

On Saturday night, in a sign that the government is keen to push ahead as soon as it can, the Brexit secretary, David Davis, issued a statement saying it was time to act on the will of the British people and leave the EU.

“However they voted in the referendum, the majority of people now want the prime minister to be able to get on with the job. By a majority of four to one, MPs passed straightforward legislation allowing the government to move ahead with no strings attached. I will be asking MPs to send the legislation back to the House of Lords in its original form so that we can start building a global Britain and a strong new partnership with the EU. Our new position in the world means we can restore national self-determination, build new trading links and become even more global in spirit and action.”
Labour MPs demand Corbyn backs fight to stay in single market
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Labour’s Brexit spokesman, Keir Starmer, said he believed there was a high probability that May would trigger article 50 in the middle of this week. Referring to the select committee report he said: “It is a reminder of the stark choices we face over Brexit and the huge risks of the PM failing to get a good deal. Labour is clear that no deal is the worst possible deal and would not be in the national interest. The PM should be fighting for a close, collaborative future relationship with the EU and rule out the danger of reverting to WTO terms, as this would be disastrous for British jobs and businesses.”

But the debate continued to cause divisions in Labour as a group of around 30 Labour MPs, including a serving whip and a member of the shadow front bench, wrote an open letter criticising the leadership for failing to support a policy of staying in the EU single market.

The statement, drawn up by former shadow cabinet member Chuka Umunna and published on the Guardian website, says: “It is the basic responsibility of the Labour party to mount the strongest possible opposition to Theresa May’s government and fight for a Brexit deal that respects the will of the British people but ensures that they will not be made substantially worse off. As the party that has always stood up for working people, we must fight tooth and nail for a future that does not destroy their jobs and livelihoods. Single Market membership outside the EU is the way to achieve this and is what Labour should be arguing for.” The Labour leadership has argued for maximum access to the single market rather than full membership.
Arguments against single market membership illustrate a lack of ambition
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The select committee report states that in the event of “no deal”, British people living in European countries could be left with no rights to healthcare, work, or benefits. “The worst-case scenario for UK migrants in the EU would be that they would be treated differently in different EU countries, at any rate where they had resided in a country for fewer than five years.”

Deals for EU citizens living here could also become “chaotic”, said the committee. An unplanned Brexit would lead to “high levels of anxiety” for British people living elsewhere in the EU, and EU migrants in the UK.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 04:39:29 AM by RE »
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2017, 07:36:21 AM »
How can they say "no deal" would be bad for both EU and UK, and then say that could be the outcome?  Why wouldn't both sides end up negotiating something better?

This is UK party political point-scoring by the people not in charge, and the media printing anything outrageous without thinking about it.
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Offline RE

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2017, 07:46:19 AM »
How can they say "no deal" would be bad for both EU and UK, and then say that could be the outcome?  Why wouldn't both sides end up negotiating something better?

This is UK party political point-scoring by the people not in charge, and the media printing anything outrageous without thinking about it.

Often, even though SOME kind of deal would be better than NO DEAL, the negotiating points are so intractable a solution cannot be found. See Greece for this. It's a PREDICAMENT.

RE
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 08:02:36 AM by RE »
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BREXIT! Scotty wants ANOTHER REFERENDUM!
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2017, 07:01:02 AM »
Can we hold a referendum on holding referendums?

I'm still waiting to see ANYTHING besides a lot of bullshit emerge from these referendums.  Even IF the Brits finally trigger Article 50, it's still 2 more years of bullshit negotiations, which in all likelihood will end in a stalemate.

You don't vote yourself out of the Hotel California.  You can check out, but you can never leave.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Gf7_9vkpX84" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Gf7_9vkpX84</a>

RE

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/13/europe/brexit-article-50-parliament/

Brexit: Scottish leader seeks UK split as EU divorce looms


By James Masters, CNN

Updated 9:23 AM ET, Mon March 13, 2017
How much will Brexit cost the UK?

 
How much will Brexit cost the UK? 01:06
Story highlights

    Theresa May set to trigger Article 50
    Landmark move could be made Tuesday
    Nicola Sturgeon announces new independence referendum plan

London (CNN)The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has said she will seek approval for a new independence referendum next week as the British government prepared to press ahead with the formal process of leaving the European Union.
Sturgeon said it was clear that the UK was heading for a "bad deal" on Brexit, and that Scottish voters deserved the option of remaining in the European Union as part of an independent nation.
Her decision to call for a new referendum came as Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, was getting ready to invoke Article 50, which would set the UK on the road to splitting from the EU.

May could begin the process as early as Tuesday if legislation passes its final hurdles in the UK parliament later Monday. But Sturgeon's announcement on Monday and the looming Dutch elections on Wednesday could push the timetable back.
Scotland to split?
Speaking in Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she would ask the Scottish parliament next week to grant her the authority to call a new independence referendum.
Sturgeon said May had failed to engage with her call for Scotland to remain in the European single market after Brexit, and that Scotland risked being taken out of the EU against its will.
Scotland&#39;s First MInister Nicola Sturgeon.
Scotland's First MInister Nicola Sturgeon.
In the Brexit referendum, Scotland bucked the UK trend and voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU. Sturgeon said it was for Scots to decide whether they followed the rest of the UK or forged their own path.
"I am ensuring that Scotland's future ... will be decided by the people of Scotland," she told reporters at Bute House, the official residence of the Scottish first minister.
"It will be Scotland's choice and I trust the people of Scotland to make that choice."
Sturgeon said the referendum would take place between late 2018 and early 2019.
The UK government must agree to a new Scottish vote. Downing Street on Monday said Sturgeon's announcement was "divisive" and that May would seek a Brexit deal in the interests of the whole UK.
But the statement stopped short of saying the UK would block a new independence referendum. In the last one, in 2014, Scotland voted 55% to 45% to remain in the UK. Downing Street said there was no appetite in Scotland for a re-run.
Brexit bill
Sturgeon's announcement complicates the UK government's plan to begin the formal process of leaving the EU, which
Later on Monday, both houses of the UK parliament vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill which, gives May permission to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which governs the relationships between EU member states.
Brexit: UK government warned over &#39;serious dereliction of duty&#39;
Brexit: UK government warned over 'serious dereliction of duty'
That would give the UK a two-year window in which to hammer out a divorce deal with the other 27 EU governments. The negotiations are expected to be tough, and there is no guarantee that a deal could be reached in the time available.
Government ministers have urged the House of Lords not to stand in the way of the bill if, as expected, MPs vote to remove amendments on Monday afternoon.
Any delay in the parliamentary process could mean the process would be pushed later in the month, as the UK government wants to avoid a clash with the Dutch elections, which are held on Wednesday.
Ministers may also want the dust to settle on Sturgeon's referendum call.
Pressure on May
May has come under increasing pressure from Parliament in recent weeks as the start of negotiations move closer.
On Sunday, lawmakers published a report which warned that the government's failure to prepare for a scenario in which no deal is reached with the European Union over Brexit would be a "serious dereliction of duty."
The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee said that the UK should be prepared for the "real prospect" that the two-year negotiation cycle may end in deadlock.
"The possibility of 'no deal' is real enough to require the government to plan how to deal with it," head of the committee Crispin Blunt said in the report.
"But there is no evidence to indicate that this is receiving the consideration it deserves or that serious contingency planning is under way. The government has repeatedly said that it will walk away from a 'bad' final deal. That makes preparing for 'no deal' all the more essential," he added.
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2017, 08:15:16 AM »
The problem with UK referenda is that they are not legitimised in the Constitution, because the UK doesn't have a Constitution.  If it was written in the Constitution that referenda results had to be acted upon, then they might be worth something, but as it is, Parliament is sovereign, recently reaffirmed by the courts, so referenda are merely consultative.  And usually only called when they are thought will back the Government's opinion.

Sturgeon is only calling for an independence referendum because she thinks she can win it.  She will then face exactly the same problem with the sovereign UK Parliament.
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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2017, 08:30:47 AM »
The problem with UK referenda is that they are not legitimised in the Constitution, because the UK doesn't have a Constitution.  If it was written in the Constitution that referenda results had to be acted upon, then they might be worth something, but as it is, Parliament is sovereign, recently reaffirmed by the courts, so referenda are merely consultative.  And usually only called when they are thought will back the Government's opinion.

Sturgeon is only calling for an independence referendum because she thinks she can win it.  She will then face exactly the same problem with the sovereign UK Parliament.

IOW, referenda are a Waste of Fucking Time! (WOFT)

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #27 on: March 13, 2017, 03:57:19 PM »
Quote
referenda are a Waste of Fucking Time!

UK ones are.  In principle though, they are good, but need to be enshrined in proper legislation that doesn't set the bar for change too high. 

With the advent of the internet, we could have referenda every weekend, and do away with Parliament's sovereign authority altogether - the people telling the public servants what to do, and political parties only devising the wording of their proposals.

Then Scotland could really break away from the "United" Kingdom.
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T-9 Days and counting to BREXIT?
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2017, 02:18:38 PM »
So, supposedly they will "pull the trigger" on March 29th?

What are the Diner opinions?  Will they actually DO IT?  ???  :icon_scratch:

If they DO "do it", what will the market reaction be? ???  :icon_scratch:  Is it "priced in"? ???  :icon_scratch:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/20/article-50-a-guide-to-britains-untested-plan-to-leave-the-e-u/?utm_term=.728a5c2a4eef


WorldViews Analysis
Article 50: A guide to Britain’s untested plan for Brexit
By Adam Taylor March 20 at 11:54 AM


London is seen through a hole in a stand that used to house a telescope for tourists. (Matt Dunham/AP)

After a lot of speculation, a big date in Britain's path to Brexit has been set: On March 29, Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger Article 50.

Britons have been waiting with bated breath for this moment, which effectively starts the formal process of their country leaving the European Union. But many outsiders may be left scratching their head, so here's a WorldViews guide to Article 50 for those catching up.

What is Article 50?

Article 50 is the European Union legislation that sets out how a member state can leave the organization. It's part of the Treaty of Lisbon, which was signed in 2007 and went into force in 2009.

What does it actually say?

Here is the full text:

    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

    4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

    5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

What does that actually mean?


The law is vague on the specifics, perhaps intentionally — no country has ever invoked Article 50 in the past, and the E.U. long viewed the possibility of a country leaving as an unlikely and unwanted possibility.

The basics are covered, however. There is no set way for a country to decide it wants to leave the E.U. The member state seeking to leave can decide that itself. Then it will have to give an official statement to the European Council explaining that it plans to leave. This is what May will do on March 29.

The country that wants to leave would not negotiate directly with other member states to reach a deal on how it would leave. Instead, the 27 other member states would meet as the European Council and agree on a framework. Britain would then negotiate the technical details with the European Commission. The European parliament also will have a say, giving consent to the deal.

The article also clearly states that a country will have two years to reach an agreement on the exit, during which time the country would still be governed by E.U. treaties and laws, although it will not be allowed in the decision-making process. However, if all E.U. member states agree, that deadline could be extended.

Finally, if the country later decides it wants to rejoin the E.U., it has to apply for membership just like any other nation would.

Why trigger Article 50 now?

Originally, former British prime minister David Cameron had suggested he would trigger Article 50 immediately after Britain's June 23, 2016, vote to leave the E.U. However, that move was swiftly delayed by a number of factors, including Cameron's own resignation and the subsequent leadership battle to replace him.

May, Cameron's eventual successor, said in October that she wanted to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. There were further complications, however. A legal challenge meant that she was unable to use “royal prerogative” to force Britain to trigger Article 50 and instead was required to get parliament's approval. While the bill went through the lower House of Commons, the upper House of Lords tried to force amendments before backing down.

Logically, it makes sense for May to try to get the ball rolling on Article 50. Britain's economy is already at risk because of uncertainty over the country's future, so prolonging that uncertainty is a problem. But there is also a logic in not immediately triggering Article 50 — the negotiations are going to be tough for Britain, so it makes sense to take some time to work out the British position before formal talks have begun.

What will these negotiations involve?

The European Council will draw up guidelines for the negotiations. Both Britain and the E.U. will have large teams to negotiate. Britain has the newly formed Department for Exiting the European Union which is led by MP David Davis, with Trade Secretary Liam Fox and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also likely to take large roles, while the European Commission has created a task force headed by French politician Michel Barnier.

The negotiations themselves will be wide-ranging, with unspent E.U. funding, the future of E.U. nationals living in Britain, and security arrangements all likely to be involved. It is currently unclear if the negotiations will include a future trade deal between Britain and the E.U. or whether that will be handled separately.

Any end deal will have to be approved by a “super” qualified majority (more than 72 percent) in the European Council and it would also need the approval of the European Parliament. May has also suggested that Britain's parliament will have a say on the final deal.

What else will Britain have to do?

A lot. It will have to work out not only its new relationship with the E.U. but also new trade relationships with many countries around the world. Experts suggest these separate negotiations could take years.

The British government will also have to repeal the legislation that took it into the E.U. and convert E.U. law into British law. There are reports that a “Great Repeal Bill” that would include both of these elements may be revealed on the same day as Article 50 is triggered. However, it is the subject of some controversy as it may rely on little used power known as the “Henry VIII clauses.”

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There may be other events for May to watch out for — including but not limited to another potential Scottish independence referendum and perhaps an early British election.

So will Britain be out of the E.U. by March 2019?

That's the plan. Whether it happens that way or not is harder to say. Many experts suspect that as the Article 50 process has never been implemented before, it may take a long time to go through all the details. If no deal is reached within two years, it is possible that Britain would be forced into what has been dubbed a “dirty Brexit.” Even if it does take less than two years, it may result in only a transition deal, with the hard work of reimagining Britain's relationship with the E.U. still to come.

It is possible to extend the negotiating period further, but only if all 27 member states agree. And yes, most experts seem to think that it will be possible to reverse Brexit if Britain can convince the E.U. it has changed its mind.

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Offline Palloy2

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Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2017, 09:43:26 PM »
WaPo = Fake News

Of course they will do it, as Government stated they would long ago.  It has been non-news since.  Market reaction has been priced in since.
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