AuthorTopic: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!  (Read 11405 times)

Offline azozeo

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Re: Kamikaze Boris Johnson Risks Becoming Britain’s Shortest-Serving PM
« Reply #150 on: July 25, 2019, 11:21:05 AM »
Kamikaze Boris Johnson Risks Becoming Britain’s Shortest-Serving PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamikaze-boris-johnson-risks-becoming-britains-shortest-serving-prime-minister?ref=home
Johnson doubles down on an unlikely bid to take Britain out of the European Union in just 99 days. A dangerous early election could be the only way out of his aggressive gambit.

Nico Hines
London Editor
Updated 07.25.19 7:51AM ET / Published 07.25.19 3:48AM ET


Oli Scarff/Getty
LONDON—Boris Johnson’s first act as British prime minister was to launch himself on a spectacular collision course with reality.

Instead of pivoting towards conciliation as he stood on the steps of Downing Street, the new Conservative leader lashed out at the “doomsters” and “gloomsters” who have failed to extricate Britain safely from the European Union over three agonizing years of negotiation at home and abroad.

Even before the Queen formally invited him to become Britain’s next prime minister, a raft of anti-Johnson Conservative lawmakers had quit the government in protest. The new PM chose to respond with a purge of his opponents in the most savage cabinet reshuffle in decades and the appointment of one of the most controversial bomb-throwers in Westminster as his senior adviser.

Johnson, who led the Leave campaign during the Brexit referendum, claims he can solve the Brexit conundrum in just three months. It’s either a pledge of great bravery or colossal hubris. Either way it is very likely that it will lead to Johnson putting the keys to No. 10 on the line in an early general election.

Twice on Wednesday he repeated the campaign pledge made to Conservative Party members, who selected him to replace Theresa May, that he would have Brexit wrapped up by Halloween. He says he wants Britain to leave the European Union with a new deal, which means either convincing Europe to abandon the red lines it's stuck to since 2016 or forcing the House of Commons to change its mind and approve a version of May’s deal that was brutally rejected by lawmakers on three occasions.

The only other option is to take Britain out of the E.U. without a deal, which parliament also has voted against repeatedly. He could try and force a No-Deal Brexit through against the will of Parliament, but that would break with centuries of political precedent.

Johnson finds himself in an almost impossible position. It’s going to take more than optimism to secure Britain’s exit from the E.U., but he made it clear that he would take personal responsibility for doing just that. “The buck stops here,” he said, as crowds of protesters booed and shouted over his first speech as prime minister.

If Parliament won’t let him deliver what he has promised to deliver, he’s going to need a new Parliament—and that means an election.

The big strategic question facing Johnson on the first night in the apartment above his new offices at No. 10 is whether to face up to reality before he crashes headfirst into the obstinacy of EU leaders and parliamentary opponents, or wait until after the damage has been done.

If he spends the three months trying to negotiate a new deal with Europe and convince a skeptical parliament to accept it, he runs the risk of being forced into an election soon after October 31 when he has failed to deliver his trademark pledge. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is waiting in the wings and ready to crush the Conservatives just as they did in this year’s European elections.

The alternative would be Johnson calling a snap election ahead of the deadline and asking the nation to back his vision by returning a more strongly pro-Brexit set of lawmakers to rubberstamp his approach.

Either of those scenarios could leave him at risk of usurping George Canning, who was Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister—in office from April 1827 for 119 days until his premature death at the age of 57.

Johnson’s best chance of avoiding that ignominy is to convince the current parliament to back whatever deal he can eke out of Brussels. Unfortunately for him, May has handed over a tiny working majority of just two lawmakers in the House of Commons, which means Johnson will be sweating over every vote.

The parliamentary arithmetic makes Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle all the more surprising. By losing at least half of the cabinet of lawmakers he inherited from May, Johnson has created a whole host of new enemies.

He fired Jeremy Hunt, his final opponent for the leadership, as well as Hunt’s backers Liam Fox and Penny Mordaunt, even though they were arch-Brexiteers. The Remain-leaning lawmakers have also been booted out of a cabinet that May had tried to balance between the rival factions.

Johnson has disregarded that notion and appears to be rebuilding the Vote Leave organization inside No. 10.

One outgoing minister told The Daily Beast: “It’s the Brexiteers’ wet dream of a Cabinet. The test is whether securing, as they have, every office of state they can now deliver Brexit. Backs to the wall, Dunkirk spirit, underdog rhetoric won’t be enough. The clock is ticking and all hinges upon success—the prime minister, the government, the party, the country.”

Perhaps the clearest sign that Johnson is planning a scorched earth policy rather than looking to build consensus is his choice of Dominic Cummings as senior adviser. Cummings was portrayed as the genius behind the Brexit referendum win—played by Benedict Cumberbatch in a recent HBO movie—but he is also known as one of the most abrasive characters in politics.

He became one of the few people in modern times to be found in contempt of parliament earlier this year for refusing to appear at a committee hearing, and former Prime Minister David Cameron once reportedly described him as a “career psychopath.”

Cummings has been scathing not just about his Brexit opponents but many of those on the same side. He attacked the group of hardline Brexiteers whom May struggled to control, saying they should be “treated like a metastasizing tumor and excised from the U.K. body politic.”

He described the pro-Brexit lawmaker tasked with negotiating the May deal as “thick as mince and lazy as a toad.”

Cummings is also renowned as an electoral strategist, raising the prospect that he has been appointed to help oversee an impending election, or perhaps even a second referendum, if that becomes the only option left on the table.

Johnson has sidelined the party’s big beasts and surrounded himself with a cadre of political outsiders like Cummings and his new Home Secretary (interior minister) Priti Patel, who was forced out of May’s cabinet when it emerged that she had been holding secret meetings with the Israeli government behind the prime minister’s back.

Johnson likes to ham up comparisons between himself and Winston Churchill, but after writing a biography of the leader who prevailed against Hitler in World War II he should know that Churchill’s over-ambitious and under-prepared early forays did not always end in success.

In World War I, Churchill drew up a bold plan to open a second front by attacking the Ottoman Empire, but he was not granted the number of troops he requested. In a fit of blind optimism over reality, Churchill ordered an amphibious attack on what is now Turkey to go ahead anyway. The result was the notorious bloodbath at the Battle of Gallipoli.

No worries Surly, The cats related to Moses  :icon_sunny:

https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/134041/new-uk-prime-minister-descended-from-rabbi-feels-jewish/?mc_cid=c8a56ad332&mc_eid=cbbf700077
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💩 Johnson tells EU: ditch the backstop or there will be no-deal Brexit
« Reply #151 on: July 27, 2019, 06:24:58 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/johnson-tells-eu-ditch-the-backstop-or-there-will-be-no-deal-brexit-idUSKCN1UM0AO

July 27, 2019 / 3:17 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
Johnson tells EU: ditch the backstop or there will be no-deal Brexit
William James


MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned the European Union on Saturday that the Irish backstop, which he said was undemocratic, needed to be ditched if they were to strike a Brexit divorce deal.
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson reacts as he meets engineering graduates on the site of an under-construction tramline in Stretford, near Manchester, Britain July 27, 2019. Ben Stansall/Pool via REUTERS

Johnson, since taking office on Wednesday, has repeatedly warned that if the EU continues to refuse to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement agreed by his predecessor, Theresa May, then he will take Britain out on Oct. 31 without a deal.

His biggest demand is that the most hotly contested element of the Brexit divorce agreement - the Irish border backstop - be struck out of the Withdrawal Agreement, a demand that has angered Ireland and perturbed other EU capitals.
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“If we get rid of the backstop, whole and entire, then we are making a lot of progress,” Johnson said, when asked if it is was only the Irish border backstop that he wanted changed.

Speaking before a Stephenson’s Rocket, a 19th century steam locomotive, in the northern England city of Manchester, Johnson dedicated most of his speech to improving public services, transport and the internet and driving up economic growth.

European leaders are prepared to talk with Britain’s new leader over Brexit but have so far insisted they will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. Many EU diplomats think the United Kingdom will hold a snap election soon.

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Johnson said he did not want a no-deal Brexit, which investors fear will send shock waves through global markets and hurt the world’s economy, but that the United Kingdom had to prepare for a no-deal.

Ireland is crucial to any Brexit solution, or any Brexit meltdown.

The backstop is an insurance policy designed to prevent the return of border controls along the 500 km (300 mile) land border between Ireland and Britain’s province of Northern Ireland that were ended by the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the question of the unification of Ireland and Northern Ireland will inevitably arise if Britain leaves the EU without a divorce deal on Oct. 31.

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“The approach of the UK government is not going to be disengaged or aloof or waiting for them to come to us: we are going to try to solve this problem and we are going to do it in a spirit of friendship and cooperation,” Johnson said.

“But we can’t do it as long as that anti-democratic backstop, that backstop that seeks to divide our country, divide the UK, remains in place,” he said. “We need to get it out and then we can make progress, I think.”

The Withdrawal Agreement that May struck in November with the EU says the United Kingdom will remain in a customs union “unless and until” alternative arrangements are found to avoid a hard border.

Many British lawmakers oppose the prospect of being bound to EU rules and customs duties that would prevent Britain doing its own trade deals and leave it overseen by EU judges.

Reporting by William James, editing by Guy Faulconbridge
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💩 Jeremy vs Boris in the Battle for all the Brit Marbles?
« Reply #152 on: July 28, 2019, 08:38:10 AM »
Another Circus Clown Show to look forward to!

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💩 Brexit and Boris Johnson Send the British Pound on a Slide
« Reply #153 on: August 01, 2019, 12:30:08 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/business/boris-johnson-british-pound.html

Brexit and Boris Johnson Send the British Pound on a Slide

Brexit supporters in London last year. Since Boris Johnson, another supporter, became prime minister last week, the British pound has lost nearly 3 percent of its value against the dollar and the euro.  Credit Andrew Testa for The New York Times

By Peter S. Goodman

    July 31, 2019

LONDON — The British pound has long possessed a mystique that transcends its marginal role in the global economy, conjuring memories of its dominance in the imperial age. But lately the currency has devolved into a sign of Britain’s diminishing fortunes in a present dominated by Brexit.

As the country slides toward the European Union’s exits, the latest pressure on its currency comes in the form of the new prime minister, Boris Johnson. Mr. Johnson has insisted he is prepared to accept the expensive chaos of leaving the European Union without a deal governing future relations.

Investors have taken his ascension last week as the impetus to evacuate their money ahead of a potential disaster. They have sold the pound. The currency has lost nearly 3 percent of its value against both the American dollar and the euro since Mr. Johnson took over.

The slide is expected to continue, perhaps right up until Oct. 31, the day that Britain is scheduled to depart the European bloc.

“The markets see turbulence for the economy,” said Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets, an investment bank in Oslo. “They see the potential for the economy to contract abruptly.”

The decline in the pound is at once a reflection of the market’s recognition that Britain has been economically weakened by Brexit, and a cause for distress.

The drop effectively raises prices for a vast range of British imports, from fruit and vegetables shipped in from Spain to chemicals and industrial parts made in Germany. It increases the costs of international travel, just as Britons flock to the beaches of the Mediterranean for summer holidays.
ImageA truck carrying Dutch flowers onto a ferry bound for Britain. The pound’s decline effectively raises prices for British imports.
A truck carrying Dutch flowers onto a ferry bound for Britain. The pound’s decline effectively raises prices for British imports.CreditAndrew Urwin for The New York Times


In theory, the weaker pound should bolster British exports by making them relatively cheaper than those produced by competitors in Europe, North America and Asia.

But given that Britain imports more than it exports, the net effect is negative. Whatever advantages exporters might gain would almost surely be canceled out by barriers to trade across the English Channel if Britain really leaves Europe without a deal.

Most broadly, the decline in the pound signals that investors see less need for British currency in the future, because Brexit is already reducing the appeal of doing business in Britain.

Economists have produced a dizzying array of estimates on the ultimate costs of Brexit, and especially the disruption to trade if confusing new customs checks are established on both sides of the English Channel. A no-deal Brexit would leave the British economy 2 percent smaller than otherwise by the end of 2021, according to a recent report from Oxford Economics, a research institution in London. The hit would be twice as bad by the calculations of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster.

From the auto industry to aerospace, major international companies have over decades set up plants in Britain, exploiting its proximity to the single European marketplace. The more likely a rupture across the English Channel, the less valuable Britain becomes as a base of operations.

None of this is new. Mr. Johnson has merely intensified pressures that have been at play since June 2016, when Britain shocked the globe with its referendum vote in favor of abandoning Europe. The pound plunged more than 10 percent against the dollar the next day. Ever since, the currency’s value has served as a gauge of Britain’s overall economic prospects amid the bewildering wrangling over Brexit.

Inflation resulting from a weaker pound prompted households to limit spending, yielding slower economic growth. Businesses have held back on expansions. Major international companies — Nissan and Honda among them — have shifted production beyond Britain.

Image
A factory in Northern Ireland, whose border with Ireland is a point of contention between Mr. Johnson and the European Union.CreditPaulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York Times

But if this has become a familiar trajectory, Mr. Johnson has injected a substantial element of unpredictability.

His predecessor, the highly scripted Theresa May, abhorred drama even as it consumed her tenure. Mrs. May initially claimed willingness to accept the turmoil of a no-deal Brexit if the alternative was an unsatisfactory arrangement. She then spent most of three years trying to walk back that formulation through negotiation, capitulation and the finessing of previous positions.

Eventually, Mrs. May forged a compromise with Europe that was almost universally panned. Those opposed to Brexit denounced Britain’s departure from the European single market, which allows trade to proceed from Greece to Ireland as if the European bloc were one enormous country. Those favoring Brexit blasted Mrs. May’s deal as a form of vassalage that would prevent Britain from striking its own trade deals with the rest of the world.

In a series of votes, Mrs. May’s deal went down to defeat. Then, she departed, handing the tangled knot that is Brexit to Mr. Johnson, a former journalist whose factually deficient reports from Brussels decades ago helped turn the British public against the European Union.

The new prime minister has a penchant for finding the center of controversy and an eagerness for headline-capturing political fisticuffs. He took office vowing to end what he has portrayed as British deference in the face of vindictive European inflexibility.

He would demand a reopening of negotiations and especially the scrapping of an element of Mrs. May’s deal known as the Irish backstop, a complex bit of maneuvering designed to prevent the reimposition of a border between Northern Ireland — part of the United Kingdom — and the independent Republic of Ireland. The net effect was to keep Britain inside the European customs union indefinitely and retain free-flowing trade until the two sides work out a permanent arrangement that ensures no hard border.

European officials have been resolute that negotiations cannot be reopened, while the backstop must endure. That leaves Mr. Johnson headed toward a collision with Europe, or on the verge of a politically perilous flip-flop.

Image
Mr. Johnson campaigning for Brexit in 2016. The new prime minister was touring Britain again this week.CreditChristopher Furlong/Getty Images

Mr. Johnson has alternately dismissed the risks of a no-deal Brexit and insisted that he was willing to crash out of the bloc at the end of October if need be. During a tour of the United Kingdom this week, he has toggled between pugnacity and reassurance.

On Monday in Scotland, Mr. Johnson was booed. He declared that there was “every chance we can get a deal” with Europe, but he also pronounced the Irish backstop “dead” — an apparent contradiction. The same day, Michael Gove, a member of Mr. Johnson’s cabinet who is overseeing preparations for a no-deal Brexit, said the government was “operating on the assumption” that this would be the outcome.

On Tuesday, sheep farmers in Wales excoriated the new prime minister for imperiling their livelihoods by jeopardizing exports to Europe. A no-deal Brexit threatens steep tariffs on lamb exports, they said, raising the prospect of the mass slaughter of soon-to-be-unsellable animals.

Experts are divided on what is really going on. Mr. Johnson may be bluffing, seeking to force Europe to reopen talks by convincing officials that he is unafraid to crash out of the European bloc. Or perhaps he is merely seeking to position himself and his Conservative Party as the victims of European intransigence ahead of national elections that are likely to follow if Europe does not budge.

Or maybe he is intent on securing his legacy as a hero among hard-core Brexiteers, the man who finally liberates Britain from killjoy European bureaucrats. But if he pursues a no-deal exit to the end, Mr. Johnson risks a mutiny within the Conservative ranks. A few members of Parliament could join the opposition to bring down the government, and an election would follow. If Mr. Johnson pursues an unexpected compromise — perhaps extending the Brexit deadline or agreeing to version of an Irish backstop — he risks a revolt from the other side of his party.

No one knows what will happen, a phrase that has gotten a vigorous workout since the Brexit referendum. Meanwhile, the markets are absorbing the variables and coming away with a less-than-robust appetite for pounds.

The moves in the currency markets are now gradual, reflecting a continued downgrading of sentiment rather than a meaningful change to the economy. But as Oct. 31 draws closer, bringing the cliff edge into sharp relief, the pound could plunge. Britain could well descend into recession.

“The currency markets are making their own judgment that it will be bad for the economy,” said Peter Dixon, a global financial economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “The more the rhetoric gets cranked up, the more likely that sterling comes under pressure.”
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💩 Could a No Deal Brexit be the beginning of the end for the UK?
« Reply #154 on: August 03, 2019, 12:22:02 AM »
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💩 What’s More Unpopular: No-Deal Brexit or Prime Minister Corbyn?
« Reply #155 on: August 17, 2019, 06:02:57 AM »
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/08/brexit-corbyn-prime-minister-bolton.html

What’s More Unpopular: No-Deal Brexit or Prime Minister Corbyn?

By Joshua Keating
Aug 16, 201911:55 AM


Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
Animation by Lisa Larson-Walker. Photos by Jon Super/AFP/Getty Images, Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images.

There was a lot less talk about the U.K. and the EU reaching a new withdrawal agreement this week. The two sides can’t even agree on conditions for starting new negotiations. The consensus view seems to be that the U.K. is headed for a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31, unless Parliament can stop it.
More on Brexit

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This week in Labour: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn unveiled his plan this week to stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from pulling Britain out of the EU without an agreement on the future relationship between the two. When Parliament returns from recess in September, Corbyn will call a no-confidence vote in Johnson’s government. There’s reason to think this might succeed: Johnson’s coalition has only a one-seat majority, and a significant number of Conservative MPs oppose a no-deal Brexit. If it does, Corbyn will ask Parliament’s smaller parties and the rebel Conservatives to support him as prime minister, for a “strictly time-limited” government which would ask the EU for a Brexit extension past the current Oct. 31 deadline, and then call a new general election. In that election, Labour would campaign on a pledge to hold a new referendum on Brexit, with an option for remaining in the EU. (This represents a bit of a shift: Labour was previously vague on whether it supports a new referendum.)

The main hitch in the plan is Corbyn himself. Because of his leftist views, allegations of anti-Semitism in the party under his leadership, and his vague stance on Brexit, the Labour leader is a controversial figure whom many moderate Remainers will be reluctant to have as prime minister. The Scottish National Party—the third-largest in Parliament—signaled it was on board with the Corbyn plan. The Greens and the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru are somewhat on board but would prefer to have a referendum before a general election. But Jo Swinson, newly elected leader of the Liberal Democrats—the fourth-largest party—opposed the plan, calling Corbyn “divisive” and saying he couldn’t command Parliament’s support. She proposed two other moderate MPs as consensus figures to lead a caretaker government.

This week in America: U.S. national security adviser John Bolton paid a visit to London this week, where he met with Johnson, reiterated the Trump administration’s support for Brexit, and promised that Britain would be “front of the trade queue” for a new deal with the United States once it leaves Europe. There have been worries in Britain that a trade deal with the U.S.
could lead to U.S. firms bidding for contracts within the National Health Service and concessions on food safety. (“Chlorinated” has been a big point of concern.) Bolton promised that agreements could be reached sector by sector rather than all at once, which could ease a few concerns. But back in Washington, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that no U.S.-U.K. trade deal would get through Congress if a no-deal Brexit led to the imposition of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland—which many fear would endanger the region’s peace process.

This week in the economy: The British economy shrank by 0.2 percent between April and June—the first contraction in a quarter since 2012—amid growing global fears of a new recession. Sajid Javid, chancellor of the exchequer, dismissed fears of a recession saying “the fundamentals of the British economy are strong,” but opposition leaders blamed the uncertainty caused by Brexit and Conservative leadership. The Bank of England expects the British economy to grow 1.3 percent this year, revised down from a previous projection of 1.5 percent.

Days until next deadline: 77 days
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/uk-faces-food-fuel-and-drugs-shortages-in-no-deal-brexit-times-citing-official-documents-idUSKCN1V70M6

August 17, 2019 / 2:59 PM / Updated 9 hours ago
UK faces food, fuel and drugs shortages in no-deal Brexit: Times, citing official documents
Kate Holton


LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, jamming ports and requiring a hard border in Ireland, official government documents leaked to the Sunday Times show.
FILE PHOTO: An anti-Brexit protester is seen outside the Cabinet Office in London, Britain July 29, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

The Times said the forecasts compiled by the Cabinet Office set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios.

They said up to 85% of trucks using the main channel crossings “may not be ready” for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improves.

The government also believes a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic will be likely as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, the Times said.

“Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation’s infrastructure,” the Times reported.

“The file, marked “official-sensitive” — requiring security clearance on a “need to know” basis — is remarkable because it gives the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s readiness for a no-deal Brexit.”

The United Kingdom is heading towards a constitutional crisis at home and a showdown with the EU as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly vowed to leave the bloc on Oct. 31 without a deal unless it agrees to renegotiate the Brexit divorce.

After more than three years of Brexit dominating EU affairs, the bloc has repeatedly refused to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement which includes an Irish border insurance policy that Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, agreed in November.

Johnson will this week tell French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Westminster parliament cannot stop Brexit and a new deal must be agreed if Britain is to avoid leaving the EU without one.

The prime minister is coming under pressure from politicians across the political spectrum to prevent a disorderly departure, with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn vowing this week to bring down Johnson’s government in early September to delay Brexit.

It is, however, unclear if lawmakers have the unity or power to use the British parliament to prevent a no-deal departure - likely to be the United Kingdom’s most significant move since World War Two.

Opponents of no deal say it would be a disaster for what was once one of the West’s most stable democracies. A disorderly divorce, they say, would hurt global growth, send shockwaves through financial markets and weaken London’s claim to be the world’s preeminent financial center.

Brexit supporters say there may be short-term disruption from a no-deal exit but that the economy will thrive if cut free from what they cast as a doomed experiment in integration that has led to Europe falling behind China and the United States.

Editing by Guy Faulconbridge
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💩 Boris Johnson to find Irish border solution in 30 days
« Reply #157 on: August 22, 2019, 12:21:04 AM »
hahahahahahahahahahaha! 🤣

NOT...GONNA...HAPPEN.

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'Absolute chaos for months': Shoppers here 'facing empty shelves
« Reply #158 on: August 31, 2019, 09:16:52 AM »
'Absolute chaos for months': Shoppers here 'facing empty shelves within days of no-deal Brexit'


Strategic importance: The port of Dublin along with the likes of Rosslare and Cork have become vitally important with a hard Brexit looming. Stock picture

Ireland's supermarket shelves could start to run bare within two days of a hard Brexit, the head of the Freight Transport Association of Ireland warned yesterday.

General manager Aidan Flynn appealed for haulage firms to take immediate steps to improve supply chains as the UK hurtles towards crashing out of the EU with no deal.

“Ireland’s retail shops have no space to stockpile anything,” he told the Irish Independent.

“They must be fed by distribution centres every day – and the UK is the major distribution hub for Ireland.
   
“Stores here have no space to stockpile anything, not even two days of products. They are seriously constrained.

“Everything will take days longer. And in the event of a no deal, there’s going to be absolute chaos for months.”

Mr Flynn said retailers currently order goods from UK warehouses and expect the products to arrive by Irish Sea ferry and truck within 24 hours. But a no-deal Brexit would make such speed legally and logistically impossible.

Mr Flynn said the era of seamless next-day imports under EU rules had allowed stores over the past decade to convert underused storage space to new retail facilities such as bakery counters.

A hard Brexit, he said, would raise the question of how Ireland could bake bread at all.

"We don't mill most of our flour in Ireland. It just shows how reliant we are on the UK for our food," he said. While the answer in part would be stockpiling, Mr Flynn said warehousing was scarce.

"Cold storage and chilled warehousing is in particularly short supply," he said. "There certainly isn't enough available to stockpile levels we would need to cope."

Rental costs for storage had climbed at least 15pc in the past year. "The price of existing warehouse space will rocket up and that ultimately will pass to the consumer.

"The industry now is reliant on too few distribution centres," he said, suggesting supermarket giants with huge hubs remain vulnerable to disjointed planning among their thousands of subcontractors.

Several supermarkets declined to comment. But German retailer Lidl told the Irish Independent it is holding regular Brexit workshops with suppliers, beefing up its local supply contracts to minimise dependence on UK producers and building a 54,000 sq m distribution centre in Newbridge, Co Kildare, due to open in November.

Lidl spokeswoman Claire Moran said Irish-made goods already represented more than half of Lidl's offering. "While some of our produce would currently come through the UK land bridge, we have put alternative logistical arrangements in place to maintain the supply of these goods. We therefore do not anticipate any shortages," she said.

Fourth-fifths of Ireland's truckers - around 150,000 drivers - use the UK as a "land bridge", cutting by half the time it takes by ferry.

Mr Flynn said Ireland needed to work with EU colleagues to forge new direct services linking Dublin, Cork and Rosslare with the French ports of Le Havre and Calais, Zeebrugge in Belgium and Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

Journeys by ferry from Rotterdam or Zeebrugge would take 40 hours. "You cannot send a driver on a ferry of that duration," he said. "It's only an option for unaccompanied containers. You'd be lengthening the supply chain and challenging hauliers' jobs."

FTA Ireland estimates Brexit preparation has helped to drive up haulage firms' costs by 6.5pc in the past year.

"Time is money," Mr Flynn said. "The reality of Brexit, with all these new processes and requirements, is it is going to take massive time to get people up to speed and become efficient again."

Irish Independent
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💩 Brexit Showdown Looms As MPs Prepare To Return To Parliament
« Reply #159 on: September 03, 2019, 12:12:22 AM »
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/02/756763493/brexit-showdown-looms-as-mps-prepare-to-return-to-parliament

Brexit Showdown Looms As MPs Prepare To Return To Parliament

September 2, 20194:48 PM ET
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Monday that he doesn't want an election amid the Brexit crisis and issued a rallying cry to lawmakers to back him in securing a Brexit deal.
Matt Dunham/AP

It's a make-or-break week in the U.K. right now, as the country barrels toward a deadline to withdraw from the European Union without yet securing a deal on the terms of the divorce.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pleading with lawmakers to support him amid a brewing rebellion in Parliament – even from members of his own party — to try to block the U.K. from leaving the bloc without securing a deal.

A meeting on Monday between Johnson and key government ministers triggered speculation that he was preparing for early elections. But in his remarks, he denied that he wanted to seek a vote: "I don't want an election, you don't want an election – let's get on with the people's agenda."

Parliament is set to return to session Tuesday, after Johnson controversially moved to suspend the body for a crucial upcoming several weeks. That move, which limits the amount of time Parliament will be in session prior to the Oct. 31 withdrawal deadline, was slammed by many of Johnson's critics as undemocratic.
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Brexit Watch: Why The Move To Suspend U.K. Parliament Matters
World
Brexit Watch: Why The Move To Suspend U.K. Parliament Matters

On Monday, the shouts of protesters could be heard in the background as Johnson encouraged lawmakers to vote against a bill aimed at stopping him from crashing out of the EU without a deal. A no-deal Brexit is predicted to damage the economies of both the U.K. and the EU.

He slammed the bill, which MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit will try to bring to the floor tomorrow, as "yet another pointless delay" that undercuts the U.K.'s negotiating position.

"If they do, they will plainly chop the legs out from under the U.K. position and make any further negotiation absolutely impossible," he said. "Let's let our negotiators get on with their work without that sword of Damocles over their necks."

As NPR's Frank Langfitt reports, Johnson's opponents are expected to succeed at taking control of parliament's agenda – typically set by the Prime Minister. If they do that and pass their bill, Langfitt adds, "we actually think that Boris Johnson is going to do what he just said he wouldn't do and doesn't want to do – he'll almost have no choice but to call an election and take this back to the people."

That would be risky for both Johnson and his chief opponent, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn spoke in favor of an early election on Monday, though he is lagging in the polls. Johnson has a tiny majority in Parliament at the moment and would try to widen it to push through a Brexit deal, as Langfitt reported.
Many Britons React With Anger Over Suspension Of Parliament
Europe
Many Britons React With Anger Over Suspension Of Parliament

Johnson said on Monday that the chances of a deal with the EU are rising — though most analysts are skeptical and the U.K. has not publicly presented any new proposals to break the deadlock with Brussels.

"They can see that we want a deal," Johnson insisted, referring to the EU. "They can see that we have a clear vision for our future relationship with the EU — something that has not always perhaps been the case — and they can see that we are utterly determined to strengthen our position by getting ready to come out, regardless, come what may," he said.

The text of the opposition bill was tweeted out by Labour MP Hilary Benn shortly before Johnson spoke. It stipulates that the U.K. would not leave the EU on Oct. 31 without a deal, unless Parliament agrees.

The bill, which is supported by MPs from across the political spectrum, also would force the Prime Minister to ask the EU in October for a three-month delay if the government hasn't reached a deal with the EU or if Parliament hasn't agreed to a no-deal Brexit.

That's a suggestion Johnson flatly rejects. "I want everybody to know that there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on the 31st of October, no ifs or buts."

Benn said in a tweet that the bill is supported by MPs who "believe that the consequences of No Deal for the economy would be highly damaging. No Deal is not in the national interest."

The EU has thus far not been willing to budge on changing the terms of a deal reached after extensive negotiations with Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May. That deal was struck down three times by parliament.
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💩 Sterling falls below $1.20, hitting its lowest level since October 2016 flash
« Reply #160 on: September 03, 2019, 09:14:16 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/sterling-falls-below-1point20-ahead-of-brexit-showdown-in-uk-parliament.html

Sterling falls below $1.20, hitting its lowest level since October 2016 flash crash
Published Tue, Sep 3 2019 2:43 AM EDTUpdated 5 hours ago
Elliot Smith  @ElliotSmithCNBC
   
Key Points

    At around 8:00 a.m. London time on Tuesday, sterling was trading as low as $1.1968, its lowest since a flash crash in October 2016.
    U.K. lawmakers return from summer recess on Tuesday afternoon, with a cross-party group of lawmakers expected to begin the first of a range of measures intended to block the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on October 31.


British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers a speech at 10 Downing Street on September 2, 2019 in London, England.
Chris J Ratcliffe | Getty Images

Sterling fell below $1.20 on Tuesday morning, reaching levels not seen since October 2016 as Britain’s constitutional crisis over Brexit threatens to come to a head.

At around 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday, sterling was trading as low as $1.1968, its lowest since a “flash crash” in October 2016. The brief crash saw the pound fall 6% in a matter of minutes during Asian trading hours to $1.1491, confounding market participants.

While no single factor caused the sudden nosedive in late 2016, an official report from the Bank for International Settlements concluded that it was caused by a combination of headline-sensitive algorithmic trading, inexperienced traders and a lack of active market participants given the time of day.
Brexit showdown

U.K. lawmakers return from summer recess on Tuesday afternoon, with a cross-party group of lawmakers expected to apply for an emergency debate and seize control of the agenda of the House of Commons, in a first effort to stop a no-deal Brexit.
VIDEO03:17
No-deal Brexit is becoming more likely, expert says

This would be subject to a vote, which if passed, would tie Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s hands ahead of the suspension of parliament from September 9 until October 14.

Johnson has vowed to leave the European Union on October 31 with or without a deal in place, and reiterated this pledge in a speech Monday evening. He also insisted that the chances of striking a new withdrawal agreement have increased.

However, government officials have said that if parliament votes in favor of the opposition’s amendment to the terms of emergency debate in order to allow it to go ahead, the prime minister will call a snap general election for October 14.

In order for the vote to pass, a number of rebel lawmakers from within Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party must flout his orders and join forces with the opposition, with several indicating already that they plan to do so. The prime minister has this week threatened to expel Conservative lawmakers who vote against him.

A “no-deal” Brexit is widely seen as a “cliff-edge” scenario to be avoided at all costs, resulting in Britain leaving the bloc with no transition period for legal and trading arrangements. Such an event is expected to cause food and medicine shortages along with significant border and travel disruption, according to the government’s own contingency plans.
A ‘lose-lose’ scenario

Stephen Gallo, European head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC via email Tuesday that the British currency is “cornered on the downside.”

“On the one hand you have the global and euro zone growth backdrops, which are both acting as a drag on the currency. On the other hand, it seems highly likely that we will land on some sort of permutation involving a WTO Brexit, early elections or both,” Gallo said.
VIDEO03:41
Rebel lawmakers launch bid to stop a no-deal Brexit

BMO strategists have outlined two possible scenarios for Brexit. In the first, the anti no-deal faction pushes legislation through forcing the government to request an extension of Article 50, the legal mechanism which triggered the U.K.’s departure process.

The government then refuses to request an extension, instead engineering a no-confidence motion in itself or leading the opposition parties to launch one. The government loses the no-confidence vote, announces new elections between mid-October and mid-November, and in the meantime, the U.K. exits the EU on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms without a withdrawal agreement on October 31.

The second scenario follows the same sequence of events but the government wins the confidence of the House of Commons, or the House refuses to vote in favor of early elections but the government still resigns.

“In that case, the opposition would probably seek to form a government and craft a new legislative agenda (i.e. new Queens Speech),” Gallo projected.

“This would need to be voted on by the Commons over the coming weeks, and it would probably fail to pass the House. In that case, it would probably be quite likely for the sovereign to formally dissolve parliament and implement an election date by statute.”

He concluded that this bind means GBP faces a “lose-lose scenario” until after Brexit is resolved, or the result of the election is known.

Correction: This story has been updated to show that sterling was trading as low as $1.1968 at around 8:00 a.m. London time on Tuesday.
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💩 Boris Johnson loses parliamentary majority as Brexit crisis bites
« Reply #161 on: September 03, 2019, 11:14:38 AM »
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/boris-johnson-loses-parliamentary-majority-brexit-crisis-bites-190903145928459.html

Boris Johnson loses parliamentary majority as Brexit crisis bites

Phillip Lee has abandoned the Conservative Party, citing 'bullying and lies'.
an hour ago


Boris Johnson now has no majority to govern in parliament after a Conservative Party defection [Simon Dawson/Reuters]

more on Brexit

    Brexit: All the latest updates
    today
    Boris Johnson loses parliamentary majority as Brexit crisis bites
    today
    All eyes on parliament as UK faces pivotal day on Brexit
    today
    Who is John Bercow? The speaker in the eye of the Brexit storm
    today

Conservative Party MP Dr Phillip Lee, a former justice minister, has quit the party to join the Liberal Democrats, suddenly leaving Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government without a parliamentary majority.

In a moment of high-drama in the House of Commons, Lee crossed the floor while Johnson was delivering a statement on the recent G7 summit.

Even with an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party - which cost former prime minister Theresa May as much as one billion pounds ($1.2bn) in extra funding for Northern Ireland - Johnson's parliamentary majority was just one.

Lee's departure means the government has now lost its working majority in the legislature, and Johnson will likely find it impossible to continue governing without an election to shake up the parliamentary arithmetic.
'Manipulation, bullying and lies'

"Over 27 years ago I joined the Conservative and Unionist Party led by Sir John Major," said Lee - a former medical practitioner - in a statement.
Alliance of rebel, opposition MPs seek to prevent 'no-deal' Brexit

"Since 2010 I have had the privilege of representing the Bracknell constituency. The party I joined in 1992 is not the party I am leaving today.

"This Conservative government is aggressively pursuing a damaging Brexit in unprincipled ways. It is putting lives and livelihoods at risk unnecessarily and it is wantonly endangering the integrity of the United Kingdom.

"More widely, it is undermining our country's economy, democracy and role in the world. It is using political manipulation, bullying and lies. And it is doing these things in a deliberate and considered way."

Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson welcomed Lee to the party, posting on Twitter: "Welcome @DrPhillipLeeMP - you have joined us at the most crucial time. I look forward to working with you to prevent a disastrous Brexit, and to fight for a fairer, more equal society."

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn took the chance to poke Johnson with a pointed barb after attacking the prime minister for trying to run a "cabal" from Downing Street in order to take Britain out of the European Union without a deal despite the costs.

"This is a government with no mandate, no morals, and, as of today, no majority," Corbyn said in the Commons.
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Re: 💩 Boris Johnson loses parliamentary majority as Brexit crisis bites
« Reply #162 on: September 03, 2019, 06:13:58 PM »
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/boris-johnson-loses-parliamentary-majority-brexit-crisis-bites-190903145928459.html

Boris Johnson loses parliamentary majority as Brexit crisis bites

Phillip Lee has abandoned the Conservative Party, citing 'bullying and lies'.
//
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn took the chance to poke Johnson with a pointed barb after attacking the prime minister for trying to run a "cabal" from Downing Street in order to take Britain out of the European Union without a deal despite the costs.

"This is a government with no mandate, no morals, and, as of today, no majority," Corbyn said in the Commons.

I have been traveling all day and was reading my phone while in the car.

Just want to points out that the diner Forum had this story 60-90 minutes before it moved as a headline on AP, NPR, and WaPo. I read it here and told my wife before it was pushed out on the others.

Well done, RE.
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💩 Johnson To Call For Snap Election After Conservatives Suffer Key Parliamentar
« Reply #163 on: September 04, 2019, 02:14:15 AM »
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/03/757084924/boris-johnsons-brexit-plans-hit-turbulence-after-conservative-defection

Johnson To Call For Snap Election After Conservatives Suffer Key Parliamentary Defeat

September 3, 20194:28 PM ET
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Colin Dwyer
Frank Langfitt


British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, seen hosting health service workers Tuesday at No. 10 Downing St. in London. The same day in the House of Commons, Johnson was dealt a political blow when the defection of a fellow Conservative left him without a working majority in Parliament.
WPA Pool/Getty Images

Updated at 6 p.m. ET

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he is ready to call a snap election after lawmakers cleared the way for a vote on Wednesday to prevent the U.K. from leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement at the end of October.

The announcement was the culmination of a dramatic day that saw a defection rob Johnson and his ruling Conservative Party of their single-seat majority in Parliament.

"I don't want an election, but if MPs vote tomorrow to stop negotiations and to compel another pointless delay to Brexit potentially for years then that will be the only way to resolve this," Johnson said after the 328 to 301 vote to seize control of parliamentary time on Wednesday.

A general election, which Johnson's aides say he wants for Oct. 14, would be the third in just four years for Britons.

On Tuesday, less than two months from the date he set for the U.K.'s divorce from the European Union — with or without a deal on the terms of the breakup — Johnson suffered another significant blow to his fraying support in Parliament: Phillip Lee, a fellow Tory, defected from Johnson's Conservative Party in a dramatic scene in the House of Commons.
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As Johnson addressed the chamber, Lee silently crossed the room and took a seat with the opposition Liberal Democrats under a heavy rain of jeers and cheers from his fellow members of Parliament. The seemingly outsize reaction was warranted: The loss of Lee's vote erases the tenuous working majority enjoyed by the prime minister's coalition, just as a possible vote looms on a bill that would bar Johnson from leaving the European bloc without a deal.

"Sadly, the Brexit process has helped to transform this once great Party in to something more akin to a narrow faction, where an individual's 'conservativism' is measured by how recklessly one wishes to leave the European Union," Lee said in a statement released on Twitter. "Perhaps most disappointingly, it has increasingly become infected with the twin diseases of populism and English nationalism."

Lee's defection comes on perhaps the most consequential day so far for Johnson's young premiership. Parliament returned to session for the first time since the prime minister moved to suspend the lawmaking body, beginning around Sept. 9 and leaving it in recess until Oct. 14 — or for more than half the weeks remaining before Johnson's deadline.

That decision elicited fierce resistance, not just from opposition lawmakers but from members within his own party, as well. Commons Speaker John Bercow, for one, said last week that the suspension of Parliament "represents a constitutional outrage," and more than a dozen of Johnson's own Tories have threatened to back the bill blocking a no-deal Brexit.

Meanwhile, protests have erupted outside the Houses of Parliament, as well.

Johnson, for his part, has sought to quell the mutiny within the Conservative Party with threats of deselection and expulsion.
Brexit Watch: Why The Move To Suspend U.K. Parliament Matters
World
Why The Move To Suspend U.K. Parliament Matters
Europe
Another Brexit Showdown Kicks Off In Britain's Parliament

"To these rebels in his own party, he said, effectively, 'I'm going to kick you out if you defy me.' And this would effectively end their careers," NPR's Frank Langfitt explained on Morning Edition Tuesday before the day's tumult in the House of Commons. "Some people find this quite ruthless, but the rebels' view is that 'we're going to choose what we see as the future of the country and the best interests of the country over party.' "

Johnson could also seek a snap general election next month if he does not get his way — which would be the U.K.'s third general vote in three years. On NPR's Here and Now, Langfitt explained that Johnson may choose to run a campaign critical of Parliament and essentially say that lawmakers are "trying to rob the people of the Brexit vote" — and that he just needs an electoral majority to push it through.

"One thing is critical: If we are to succeed in these negotiations [with EU officials], we need to get behind the prime minister," Conservative MP Michael Gove told lawmakers Tuesday in the House of Commons.

"And if it is the case that the motion before the House is passed tonight and the legislation which it gives effect to is passed tomorrow," he continued, "then we will allow the European Union to dictate the length of any extension and to put any conditions they wish to on that extension. That would totally undermine the government's capacity to negotiate in the national interest."

Jo Swinson, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, the party to whom Lee defected, didn't buy arguments such as Gove's

"The prime minister has lost his majority with the honorable member from Bracknell joining the Liberal Democrats," she said on the chamber floor, adding: "When will the prime minister stop playing with people's lives and stop Brexit?"
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💩 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson loses majority after Brexit vote
« Reply #164 on: September 04, 2019, 04:16:16 AM »
Gotta love Brit Politics. lol.  ;D

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