Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger

[RE]

For those of you not familiar with my last encounter with the FINGER OF GOD on the road, let me regurgitate the story one more time.

I was driving back from the Alaska State Gymnastics Meet, the final meet of the year if you do not have high level gmynasts to qualify for Regionals or Nationals.  At the time, I only had compulsory level gymnasts, I was still building this program.  Many of those kids were State Champions at their levels.  It was March of 2013.

It had been snowing during the day, but the temps were hovering right around freezing, and while most of the road home seemed clear of snow, I hit a patch of Black Ice near around where the Walmart exit is on the Glenn.  In under 1 second, I felt the sterring wheel lose the grip of the road, and my SUV started heading for the median and into Oncoming Traffic.  I was doing maybe 55 or so, driving conservatively because even though the speed limit was 65, the conditions did not warrant driving at that speed.

When I began to skid into the oncoming traffic, I did as I was trained on the Snyder National Skid Pad in Green Bay, and I turned into the skid.  It did not however bring the vehicle under control, I just started fishtailing, going one way and the other every couple of seconds.  The options were in those moments to go one way or the other, to quit trying to control this vehicle and go off the road. I had the choice of going off road into oncoming traffic or to go off road on the embankments to my right.  Many Lampost and signs I could hit on the way off that way.    When I saw a space between obstacles and the vehicle was pointed in the right direction, I took my one and only opportunity to save myself.  I took my foot off the brake and I stopped trying to control the skid and I just let her go, BALLISTIC style.  I hit the embankment at maybe around 40 mph, and me and the SUV went AIRBORNE for probably 30-50 feet, not sure on this.  When we made Earth Contact again it was in freshly fallen snow and I was able to brake and come to a stop maybe another 100' down the embankment.  After taking about a 10 minute breather, I was able to back my SUV down from this embankment and onto the On Ramp from the Walmart exit at the Seward-Meridian highway.

No AI could have made those decisions in the way I did, as fast as I did.  I knew where I was, I knew the road.  An AI in control of that vehicle almost certainly would have ended up running into oncoming traffic, and taken out other lives in addition to my own.  My result was ZERO damage, to either myself or the SUV.

This is the God's honest truth of what occurred, and I have a witness.  By chance, another coach I know was just behind me when it occured, and he saw the whole thimg.  He pulled off the road to see what happened to me, but by the time he got back to the location, I had already backed out of it.  I did not fidn out that he had seen it until a couple of days later when I was retelling the story at the gym.

RE

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[jdwheeler42]

These are the most intelligent words on this topic I've seen in a long while.  What is being proposed here is entirely doable, and would likely succeed. But still it contributes to the perpetuation of the general thrust / trend which our familiar approach to technology has been asserting upon the world, and since that trend / thrust has a shelf life of five to ten more years at most I'd rather not invest (concern) even in such fantasies as this one. 

The near term future of transportation is not difficult to imagine. It will be intermodal. This means you can take your bicycle or electric scooter on trains and buses. It will be rail-centric, not car-centric -- which means so very much (like no need for a bazillion parking spaces covered in asphalt everywhere). Few private automobiles will exist in the near term future. They will be relics of a bygone era, like pay phones and 8-track tape players.

Actually, I'm with you on this one.... that's why I haven't been advocating for such a plan.  I would much rather see a train/bicycle system in place myself.  Although, velomobiles do have a certain place in my heart....

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[JRM]

But learning to fly a plane is a difficult motherfucker.

Actually, RE was spot on. After all, we were discussing a plane on autopilot, not in a dogfight in WWII.  Autopilot systems are based on all sorts of assumptions about conditions which can be trusted to be the case the overwhelming majority of the time. It's not entirely unlike having a car on cruise control on a perfectly straight and level highway that goes on without interruption in this straight and level way for many hours. A guy could use his knees to hold the wheel ... nod off, and drive for miles like this if he doesn't tend to roll around much in his sleep. This bears no resemblance to driving in an urban or suburban environment (though I did exaggerate ever so slightly to make my point).  There are no intersections up there, no curves, no dogs or deer or cows or kids or skateboards or bicycles or baby carriages... there are even no birds at those elevations. There is NOTHING. NOTHING. JUST air.  Sheesh.

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[azozeo]

For those of you not familiar with my last encounter with the FINGER OF GOD on the road, let me regurgitate the story one more time.

I was driving back from the Alaska State Gymnastics Meet, the final meet of the year if you do not have high level gmynasts to qualify for Regionals or Nationals.  At the time, I only had compulsory level gymnasts, I was still building this program.  Many of those kids were State Champions at their levels.  It was March of 2013.

It had been snowing during the day, but the temps were hovering right around freezing, and while most of the road home seemed clear of snow, I hit a patch of Black Ice near around where the Walmart exit is on the Glenn.  In under 1 second, I felt the sterring wheel lose the grip of the road, and my SUV started heading for the median and into Oncoming Traffic.  I was doing maybe 55 or so, driving conservatively because even though the speed limit was 65, the conditions did not warrant driving at that speed.

When I began to skid into the oncoming traffic, I did as I was trained on the Snyder National Skid Pad in Green Bay, and I turned into the skid.  It did not however bring the vehicle under control, I just started fishtailing, going one way and the other every couple of seconds.  The options were in those moments to go one way or the other, to quit trying to control this vehicle and go off the road. I had the choice of going off road into oncoming traffic or to go off road on the embankments to my right.  Many Lampost and signs I could hit on the way off that way.    When I saw a space between obstacles and the vehicle was pointed in the right direction, I took my one and only opportunity to save myself.  I took my foot off the brake and I stopped trying to control the skid and I just let her go, BALLISTIC style.  I hit the embankment at maybe around 40 mph, and me and the SUV went AIRBORNE for probably 30-50 feet, not sure on this.  When we made Earth Contact again it was in freshly fallen snow and I was able to brake and come to a stop maybe another 100' down the embankment.  After taking about a 10 minute breather, I was able to back my SUV down from this embankment and onto the On Ramp from the Walmart exit at the Seward-Meridian highway.

No AI could have made those decisions in the way I did, as fast as I did.  I knew where I was, I knew the road.  An AI in control of that vehicle almost certainly would have ended up running into oncoming traffic, and taken out other lives in addition to my own.  My result was ZERO damage, to either myself or the SUV.

This is the God's honest truth of what occurred, and I have a witness.  By chance, another coach I know was just behind me when it occured, and he saw the whole thimg.  He pulled off the road to see what happened to me, but by the time he got back to the location, I had already backed out of it.  I did not fidn out that he had seen it until a couple of days later when I was retelling the story at the gym.

RE

Definitely, divine intervention 

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[JRM]

For those of you not familiar with my last encounter with the FINGER OF GOD on the road, let me regurgitate the story one more time.

I was driving back from the Alaska State Gymnastics Meet, the final meet of the year if you do not have high level gmynasts to qualify for Regionals or Nationals.  At the time, I only had compulsory level gymnasts, I was still building this program.  Many of those kids were State Champions at their levels.  It was March of 2013.

It had been snowing during the day, but the temps were hovering right around freezing, and while most of the road home seemed clear of snow, I hit a patch of Black Ice near around where the Walmart exit is on the Glenn.  In under 1 second, I felt the sterring wheel lose the grip of the road, and my SUV started heading for the median and into Oncoming Traffic.  I was doing maybe 55 or so, driving conservatively because even though the speed limit was 65, the conditions did not warrant driving at that speed.

When I began to skid into the oncoming traffic, I did as I was trained on the Snyder National Skid Pad in Green Bay, and I turned into the skid.  It did not however bring the vehicle under control, I just started fishtailing, going one way and the other every couple of seconds.  The options were in those moments to go one way or the other, to quit trying to control this vehicle and go off the road. I had the choice of going off road into oncoming traffic or to go off road on the embankments to my right.  Many Lampost and signs I could hit on the way off that way.    When I saw a space between obstacles and the vehicle was pointed in the right direction, I took my one and only opportunity to save myself.  I took my foot off the brake and I stopped trying to control the skid and I just let her go, BALLISTIC style.  I hit the embankment at maybe around 40 mph, and me and the SUV went AIRBORNE for probably 30-50 feet, not sure on this.  When we made Earth Contact again it was in freshly fallen snow and I was able to brake and come to a stop maybe another 100' down the embankment.  After taking about a 10 minute breather, I was able to back my SUV down from this embankment and onto the On Ramp from the Walmart exit at the Seward-Meridian highway.

No AI could have made those decisions in the way I did, as fast as I did.  I knew where I was, I knew the road.  An AI in control of that vehicle almost certainly would have ended up running into oncoming traffic, and taken out other lives in addition to my own.  My result was ZERO damage, to either myself or the SUV.

This is the God's honest truth of what occurred, and I have a witness.  By chance, another coach I know was just behind me when it occured, and he saw the whole thimg.  He pulled off the road to see what happened to me, but by the time he got back to the location, I had already backed out of it.  I did not fidn out that he had seen it until a couple of days later when I was retelling the story at the gym.

RE

Amazing story!

I've had a couple of not entirely dissimilar experiences in my now long life.  I hope not to have any others! 

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[RE]

Amazing story!

I've had a couple of not entirely dissimilar experiences in my now long life.  I hope not to have any others! 

Because I was a Professional Driver of Big Rigs and also did my share of Motorcycling, I have several such stories of Finger of God survival when I really should have been dead, or at least seriously injured.  However, because this one happened so relatively recently to me, it seems the most amazing to me now.

When I went down on the motorcycle on Central Park South in NYC during Rush Hour probably was more incredible, but it was so long ago now that I don't remember it quite as vividly.

RE

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[JRM]

My most terrifying experience was as a passenger.  A very brief moment of distraction, an overcorrection upon waking up (so to speak) and noticing what we were about to collide with... followed by total loss of control of the vehicle at about 70 mph ... which rolled (not on its wheels, but rolling from wheels in the air to wheels on the ground to wheels in the air again....) and rolled through a lane of heavy highway traffic with semi trucks everywhere. It was a miracle we were not crushed under one of the big trucks.  The car came down on one of its sides and we climbed out like the side door was the hatch of a tank -- astonished we hand not been broken to bits or killed.

I remember thinking, "So, this is what it is like to die as a young man." ... just before the dust settled and I found myself amazed to still be here in one piece.

Got to have my first ambulance ride.  I remember being scared when the ambulance fellas were checking me out with their little penlights "follow my light" they said.... I was sure the'd be telling me in the next moment that part of my brain was hanging out of my head or that my intestines and lungs had traded places.  I was in total shock.  But it was mostly psychological. Thanks to the seatbelt and shoulder harness ... and the good luck of not having been crushed under a giant truck.

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[RE]

My most terrifying experience was as a passenger.  A very brief moment of distraction, an overcorrection upon waking up (so to speak) and noticing what we were about to collide with... followed by total loss of control of the vehicle at about 70 mph ... which rolled (not on its wheels, but rolling from wheels in the air to wheels on the ground to wheels in the air again....) and rolled through a lane of heavy highway traffic with semi trucks everywhere. It was a miracle we were not crushed under one of the big trucks.  The car came down on one of its sides and we climbed out like the side door was the hatch of a tank -- astonished we hand not been broken to bits or killed.

I remember thinking, "So, this is what it is like to die as a young man." ... just before the dust settled and I found myself amazed to still be here in one piece.

Got to have my first ambulance ride.  I remember being scared when the ambulance fellas were checking me out with their little penlights "follow my light" they said.... I was sure the'd be telling me in the next moment that part of my brain was hanging out of my head or that my intestines and lungs had traded places.  I was in total shock.  But it was mostly psychological. Thanks to the seatbelt and shoulder harness ... and the good luck of not having been crushed under a giant truck.

Maybe we need a thread "Motor Vehicle Accidents I have been in".

RE

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[Eddie]

While you are quite correct about the complexity of driving a car, RE, I think you underestimate the complexity of flying a plane.  I think Eddie is correct that flying is more complex than driving, at the same traffic density.  However, the fact that there are many fewer planes in the air makes it much simpler.  But, the bigger point that Eddie misses is NOT ONE DAMN PLANE FLIES ITSELF, at least in the US.  Maybe over the open ocean.  One that did is likely to get itself shot down.  What really keeps planes safe in the air are the AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS.  They assign the corridors for the planes to follow.  They're the ones making sure the planes don't come close enough to each other to risk collisions.


All I know is what I read. I'm not a pilot. I guess The Atlantic was just making this up?

The latest airliner models are controlled largely through computers with automatically updated flight-management systems, commonly referred to as fly-by-wire systems. All this automation has eliminated many of the routine pilot functions of the past: setting courses, switching navigation radio frequencies, tending to miscellaneous other details that kept past pilots involved over the course of the flight.

These newer, more efficient models have much lower operating costs, but the downside is that pilots, increasingly removed from the mechanics of flying, no longer need to be as attentive. On a 2.5 hour domestic flight, autopilots and flight-management systems typically do about 95 percent of the work. For maximum efficiency, autopilots are typically engaged after takeoff, at about one or two thousand feet, and pilots don’t take over again until the plane is lined up on final approach, a few thousand feet above the airport. 




http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/03/has-the-self-flying-plane-arrived/472005/

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[Eddie]

Actually, that's very, very, very far from the case.  You're so very, very, very far from understanding here that if you were as bad a dentist as you are a complexity scientist / philosopher you'd be filling teeth with wads of cotton and sawdust.

Do I really need to explain why? Sheesh. Maybe somebody else here will type it for me. 

Eddy, you're a very, very bright man. But you don't know a think about this tech talk we're having. Not a thing.


Hmmm. Well, driverless cars get pretty good press on the safety issue. I could post articles all night.


http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/googles-self-driving-car-is-ridiculously-safe

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/181508-googles-self-driving-car-passes-700000-accident-free-miles-can-now-avoid-cyclists-stop-for-trains

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/67253/20150728/driverless-cars-safe.htm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10411238/Googles-driverless-cars-are-safer-than-human-drivers.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/09/self-driving-cars-could-save-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/

James, that was almost an ad hom attack. You are entitled to your opinion, but try not to make it personal, okay?

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[JRM]

Eddie, it's not personal.

I don't know EVERYTHING about "autopilot" on jet planes.  My impression is that a pilot and co-pilot could conceivably each get up and go to the john and pour coffee and the whole thing will fly itself for a while without a mishap.  I may have that all wrong.  But what I'm pretty sure I have one thing right, and that's the fact that driving in a suburb or a city presents automated, computerized systems with a great many challenges which jet planes at "cruising altitude" don't have to contend with. 

I apologize for driving my point home so strongly. It's true that there is much I do not know about either of these systems -- in cars or in planes.  I just thought it was obvious (perhaps it is not?) that an automated car has got a lot more to contend with in the way of potential problems than a jet plane at cruising altitude.

I tend also to be suspicious of the "data" on driverless cars.  But I do admit I may be wrong about all of it. I'm not an expert by any means  -- in either example. 

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[RE]

Hmmm. Well, driverless cars get pretty good press on the safety issue. I could post articles all night.

On the conspiracy end, this is where I am suspicious.

Who verifies these "tests" and under what conditions?  How do we know this is not just hype from the companies producing these products and trying to get them to market?

RE

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[RE]

Eddie, it's not personal.

I don't know EVERYTHING about "autopilot" on jet planes.  My impression is that a pilot and co-pilot could conceivably each get up and go to the john and pour coffee and the whole thing will fly itself for a while without a mishap.  I may have that all wrong.  But what I'm pretty sure I have one thing right, and that's the fact that driving in a suburb or a city presents automated, computerized systems with a great many challenges which jet planes at "cruising altitude" don't have to contend with. 

I apologize for driving my point home so strongly. It's true that there is much I do not know about either of these systems -- in cars or in planes.  I just thought it was obvious (perhaps it is not?) that an automated car has got a lot more to contend with in the way of potential problems than a jet plane at cruising altitude.

I tend also to be suspicious of the "data" on driverless cars.  But I do admit I may be wrong about all of it. I'm not an expert by any means  -- in either example.

Too bad AG is sick, I am sure he could fill in more on this.

However, as I understand it, modern "autopilot" systems for planes can do much more than just hold the plane on "cruise control" while the pilot takes a leak.  They can do everything from take off to landing the plane.  They have collision avoidance systems connected to the on board radar.  etc.

BUT BUT BUT as I (and you) point out, Airspace is far less crowded and far more predictable than the road is.

Here is what I would like to see as a demonstration.

Somebody set up a Scale Model of NYC, and then get say 1000 joystick jockeys with model cars to drive around this model city, and put 10 or 20 autopilot cars in there also. Then periodically spray this model city with water from a hose, and freeze it too.  Show me the video of the autopilot carz negotiating the model city.

RE

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[JRM]

BUT BUT BUT as I (and you) point out, Airspace is far less crowded and far more predictable than the road is.

Here is what I would like to see as a demonstration.

Somebody set up a Scale Model of NYC, and then get say 1000 joystick jockeys with model cars to drive around this model city, and put 10 or 20 autopilot cars in there also. Then periodically spray this model city with water from a hose, and freeze it too.  Show me the video of the autopilot carz negotiating the model city.

RE

The REAL test, of course, is the real world. The real world human driver "space" would be the same as the real world carbot space. In both cases, many, many unexpected things would occasionally happen -- be it a wayward baby carriage or a dog, cat, squirrel ... skateboard, skateboarder ... butterfly, bird, deer, elk, fox, falling tree.... Imagine all things! bicycles, bicyclist...  Now, my computer glitches up all the damn time. I think this is normal for computers, and so it would be for robots....  Will the robot car always discern a butterfly from a baby carriage?  If it does, I'll be very, very surprised.  Human drivers will very rarely mistake a nearby butterfly for a baby carriage, bicyclist or B1 bomber.  The robot uses cameras and some sort of sonar / radar... to gauge distance, size, etc.  If the camera-car-bot always refuses to mistake a butterfly or a runaway skateboard with something else ... I'll be less concerned. But I need more evidence than controlled studies controlled by the makers of the technology, such as Google.

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[JRM]

A well-working car-bot would know how to swerve to miss a cow or elk -- since hitting either at high speed could kill the passenger.

It would not flinch at hitting a skateboard, if it must, to avoid hurting somebody.  Same with a squirrel.  But it would have to recognize a very small skateboarding child, somehow.  It would have to recognize a small child as -- perhaps -- ethically different from anything slightly resembling a small child -- ... a dog, a shopping cart covered in a blanket which just suddenly and unexpectedly left the directing arms of a toothless homeless woman.

Personally, when I consider all of the variables and complexities it rather boggles my mind how a computerized system with a camera eye could know how to navigate such complexity.  Does it just slam on the brakes whenever it is confused about what to do? If it does, does anyone then crash into the back of it?  If a bird suddenly flies in front of the camera will it always know this fleeting shadow is but a bird? ... a dragonfly, a butterfly?

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