AuthorTopic: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger  (Read 9800 times)

Offline Surly1

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #60 on: July 06, 2016, 02:24:47 AM »

Perspective is an amazing thing. Too bad Zero hedge doesn't have it.  ;)

Have noticed that lately. Time was that ZH was predictably libertarian in bent, but lately they have gone full FNC/Breitbart/Daily caller. Perhaps they have purged their more progressive Tylers.
It's like reading The Burning Hedge.
And never more so than in reading the comments...

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline g

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #61 on: July 06, 2016, 03:14:59 AM »

Perspective is an amazing thing. Too bad Zero hedge doesn't have it.  ;)

Have noticed that lately. Time was that ZH was predictably libertarian in bent, but lately they have gone full FNC/Breitbart/Daily caller. Perhaps they have purged their more progressive Tylers.
It's like reading The Burning Hedge.
And never more so than in reading the comments...

Took it off my daily list about a month ago.

Noticed a worrisome change, website redesign, and everytime I went there computer jam or virus warning.

ZH, I'm afraid, is all about the Benjamins now, and their headlines to articles or often sensational and misleading. Can make do without them. Articles of interest there are usually posted by others at other blogs anyway.

Why does everything seem to change for the worse, hardly never for the better. :icon_scratch: :-\ :-\


Offline RE

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #62 on: July 06, 2016, 04:01:54 AM »
Why does everything seem to change for the worse, hardly never for the better.

That is the nature of Collapse.

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #63 on: July 06, 2016, 09:47:42 AM »
Why does everything seem to change for the worse, hardly never for the better.

That is the nature of Collapse.

RE

True, but I think that the burdens-- and clarity -- of age have something to do with it as well. The scales drop from your eyes. And we know with growing certainty the fact that the more things change, the more they remains the same.

This week making a good example-- look at the rah-rah boo-yah associated with all things Fourth of July. When we learned about the military growing up, we were played recordings of MacArthur's "Duty, Honor, country..." and never heard a word about Smedley Butler.

Likewise, the newspapers print excerpts from the declaration, but never anything from Frederick Douglass' speech in 1852.

http://www.historyisaweapon.com/defcon1/douglassjuly4.html

An excerpt:

Quote
I am not included within the pale of this glorious anniversary! Your high independence only reveals the immeasurable distance between us. The blessings in which you, this day, rejoice, are not enjoyed in common.-The rich inheritance of justice, liberty, prosperity and independence, bequeathed by your fa thers, is shared by you, not by me. The sunlight that brought light and healing to you, has brought stripes and death to me. This Fourth July is yours, not mine. You may rejoice, I must mourn. To drag a man in fetters into the grand illuminated temple of liberty, and call upon him to join you in joyous anthems, were inhuman mockery and sacrilegious irony. Do you mean, citizens, to mock me, by asking me to speak to-day? If so, there is a parallel to your conduct. And let me warn you that it is dangerous to copy the example of a nation whose crimes, towering up to heaven, were thrown down by the breath of the Almighty, burying that nation in irrevocable ruin! I can to-day take up the plaintive lament of a peeled and woe-smitten people!

"By the rivers of Babylon, there we sat down. Yea! we wept when we remembered Zion. We hanged our harps upon the willows in the midst thereof. For there, they that carried us away captive, required of us a song; and they who wasted us required of us mirth, saying, Sing us one of the songs of Zion. How can we sing the Lord's song in a strange land? If I forget thee, O Jerusalem, let my right hand forget her cunning. If I do not remember thee, let my tongue cleave to the roof of my mouth."

Fellow-citizens, above your national, tumultuous joy, I hear the mournful wail of millions! whose chains, heavy and grievous yesterday, are, to-day, rendered more intolerable by the jubilee shouts that reach them. If I do forget, if I do not faithfully remember those bleeding children of sorrow this day, "may my right hand forget her cunning, and may my tongue cleave to the roof of my mouth!" To forget them, to pass lightly over their wrongs, and to chime in with the popular theme, would be treason most scandalous and shocking, and would make me a reproach before God and the world. My subject, then, fellow-citizens, is American slavery. I shall see this day and its popular characteristics from the slave's point of view. Standing there identified with the American bondman, making his wrongs mine, I do not hesitate to declare, with all my soul, that the character and conduct of this nation never looked blacker to me than on this 4th of July!

Do take the time to read the original.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline RE

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Consumer Reports calls on Tesla to deactivate Autopilot
« Reply #64 on: July 14, 2016, 06:56:53 PM »
EM will be bummed.  :(


RE

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/07/14/consumer-reports-tesla-motors-autopilot/87075956/

Consumer Reports calls on Tesla to deactivate Autopilot
Nathan Bomey, USA TODAY 8:39 p.m. EDT July 14, 2016
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Consumer Reports urged Tesla to disable automatic steering

WASHINGTON U.S. magazine Consumer Reports on Thursday urged Tesla Motors Inc to disable its automatic steering function in its Autopilot driving-assist system that's under investigation by U.S. officials. Wochit
presskit-auotpilot-large_large.jpg

(Photo: Tesla Motors)

Consumer Reports called on Tesla Motors to deactivate its partial self-driving system, which it dubs Autopilot, after a deadly accident.

The magazine said Thursday that electric-vehicle maker Tesla should block its Autopilot steering technology, overhaul it and rebrand it.  What's more, Consumer Reports said the name Autopilot is "misleading and potentially dangerous," thus dealing another blow to the automaker's self-driving car momentum.

The automatic steering portion of Autopilot — which steers, accelerates and brakes Tesla vehicles automatically on lane-marked highways — should be deactivated "until it can be reprogrammed to require drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel," Consumer Reports said.

The assessment comes after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and National Transportation Safety Board launched investigations into the crash of 40-year-old Ohio resident Joshua Brown, who was killed when his Tesla Model S with Autopilot activated slammed into a truck that was crossing his path laterally.

USA TODAY

NTSB opens Tesla Autopilot crash probe

Laura MacCleery, vice president of consumer policy and mobilization for Consumer Reports, said in a statement that self-driving systems "could make our roads safer" eventually, "but today, we're deeply concerned that consumers are being sold a pile of promises about unproven technology."

The watchdog magazine, which concluded in an October review that Tesla's Autopilot system "worked quite well." But it noted that it is not a true self-driving system and raised some questions about safety.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has refused to disable the system, which could be done through an over-the-air software update, and has instead repeatedly defended it and said it's safer than human driving.

"Tesla is constantly introducing enhancements proven over millions of miles of internal testing to ensure that drivers supported by Autopilot remain safer than those operating without assistance," the automaker said Thursday in a statement.

USA TODAY

Tesla's 'Autopilot' feature probed after fatal crash

"We will continue to develop, validate, and release those enhancements as the technology grows. While we appreciate well-meaning advice from any individual or group, we make our decisions on the basis of real-world data, not speculation by media."

The Palo Alto, Calif.-based company also gave no indication that it plans to rename the system, which comes with a warning that drivers should still keep their hands on the wheel at all times.

"Tesla Autopilot functions like the systems that airplane pilots use when conditions are clear," Tesla said. "The driver is still responsible for, and ultimately in control of, the car. This is enforced with onboard monitoring and alerts. To further ensure drivers remain aware of what the car does and does not see, Tesla Autopilot also provides intuitive access to the information the car is using to inform its actions.
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Offline RE

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Tesla's entire future depends on the Gigafactory
« Reply #65 on: July 28, 2016, 12:45:22 PM »
EPIC FAIL in the Making!

RE

http://www.theverge.com/2016/7/28/12299202/tesla-model-3-gigafactory-tour-elon-musk-photos-nevada

 Tesla's entire future depends on the Gigafactory

    By Jordan Golson on July 28, 2016 10:13 am Email @jlgolson


When you find yourself in the middle of the Nevada desert, on a 100-degree day, you wonder: who in the world would build something here?

Elon Musk, of course.

And so I’m here in the city of Sparks, outside of Reno, because of Musk’s dream — his "Master Plan" for Tesla, to be specific. He’s staked his entire company (and much of his net worth) on a single, enormous building here: the Gigafactory.

Tesla's Gigafactory is perhaps the best example of the literal scale of Elon Musk's ambitions. When the factory is complete, it will be the largest building in the world by footprint and, if all goes according to plan, will eventually churn out enough batteries to supply 150 gigawatt hours of batteries per year. That's enough for 1.5 million Model 3s. Tesla hopes to build 35GWh of batteries per year by 2018, equivalent to 500,000 Model 3s.
Tesla Gigafactory
Jordan Golson

Pull up "large" in your thesaurus and you can easily apply any synonym to the plant: great, huge, sizable, substantial, immense, enormous, colossal, massive, mammoth, vast, prodigious, tremendous, ginormous — all of them apply. And maybe that doesn't even capture it.

The building, which Musk finds "quite romantic," is aligned north to south. It will be large enough to cover 107 NFL football fields with two to four floors of factory floor and workspace layered on top. There are 10,000 wild horses in the area, with some taking advantage of Tesla's construction efforts to drink from the water storage pools used during the building process.

"It's great," said Musk in a press conference with reporters at the Gigafactory yesterday. "It's like the Wild West."
""It's great. It's like the Wild West.""

But, according to Tesla, it's so much more than a battery factory. Forget the Model 3: the success of the Gigafactory is the most critical part of Tesla's future and the execution of Musk's overriding quest to save the world from the effects of climate change. Without the Gigafactory, there is no Model 3 because there will be no batteries.

"We consider [the factory] to be a product. The factory itself is the machine that builds the machine," said Musk. "It actually deserves more attention from creative problem solving engineers than the product that it makes."

Musk argues that applying engineering effort to refining the production process is a better use of man-hours than trying to wring the last little bits of efficiency out of his cars. An engineer working on improving the factory line is five to 10 times more productive than that same effort put on the product that's actually being built.

"It takes a massive amount of effort to improve the inverter efficiency by a few tenths of a percentage point," said Musk. "You have to really wrack your brain and try super hard and take a lot of risks to improve efficiency by a few tenths of a percentage point." But apply that same engineering effort to the process of building the inverter and it can deliver 10 times the efficiency improvement. Musk cited one example where his engineers were able to reduce a production station's time from 200 seconds to a single second.

I'll admit that I thought the idea of the Gigafactory was absurd when it was first proposed three years ago. I wasn't the only one. Panasonic is investing huge sums of money to build battery production lines right inside the Gigafactory — it's a sort of tenant / landlord situation where Panasonic owns its production lines and delivers battery cells right to the front end of Tesla's production line.
Tesla Gigafactory
Jordan Golson

Standing inside the building, staring agape at the sheer audacity of the project, it's easy to say, "Oh, yeah, this all makes sense." But Panasonic executive Yoshi Yamada said he wasn't always on board.

Three years ago, when the Gigafactory was first proposed, "I thought it was crazy," said Yamada. "At that time, production capacity of this Gigafactory would exceed total production of the industry. Not Panasonic. Not Japanese companies. All Japanese, Korean, and Chinese companies combined. I thought it was a crazy idea.

"But I was crazy. And I was wrong. After seeing extraordinary success of the announcing of Model 3, there is a strong demand for this battery. So, three years ago I thought this was a crazy idea. But I was crazy at the time."

This is as significant a project for Panasonic as it is for Tesla. The vast majority of these types of batteries are built in Asia, and this plant is a first for Panasonic. Given Donald Trump's relentless focus on international trade deficits and the decline of US manufacturing, the rollout of this factory is perhaps perfectly timed.
""I thought it was a crazy idea.""

"We really wanted to contribute to the sustainable world, that’s number one," said Yamada. "The second thing is that I think we really change business relationship between two companies: from the buyer-supplier relationship to one team."
Tesla Gigafactory
Jordan Golson

Walking around the factory, there are massive, two-story-high battery production lines owned by Panasonic. There are taped lines on the floor showing where the Tesla production floor ends and Panasonic's begins. Raw materials will go in one end, run through the line, and then spit out a battery cell, ready to be installed in Tesla battery packs on the next line.

"Gigafactory is the most exciting factory in the world," said Musk. "If you want to work on a factory, you want to work on this factory. What would be option two?"
""If you want to work on a factory, you want to work on this factory.""

To hear Musk tell it, the Gigafactory is as important to electric cars as Henry Ford's production line was to the automobile a century ago. It's the electric car version of Dell's revolutionary just-in-time PC factory: put supplier production and final assembly under one roof, saving on transportation costs and allowing for reduced inventory.

Raw materials go in the south end and assembled battery packs come out the north, all shepherded by close to 10,000 Tesla employees and a litany of Fanuc autonomous robots. All the steel is fabricated in the US, and the company says none of the raw materials for the steel came from China.

Tesla is acting as its own general contractor, preferring to learn and improve processes itself rather than paying some other company to do it. That's in anticipation for future Gigafactories, which will be built around the world as demand grows. Facilities in Europe, China, and India are all on the drawing board according to Musk, with the institutional knowledge gained from this building used to improve the next version. Future Gigafactories will likely include vehicle assembly lines too, making the whole process even more efficient.

But why here, in an empty expanse of Nevada, for the first facility? The state has been generous with tax breaks in recent years, for one. Tesla is working with the University of Nevada to create battery-related engineering classes to create a pipeline of talent, while the state is building a new road to connect the industrial park where the Gigafactory is located to US 50 to the South. The theory goes that it'll benefit both Tesla and its neighbor companies in this business-friendly part of the country.
Tesla Gigafactory
Jordan Golson

The end goal for the Gigafactory is to drive down the cost-per-kilowatt hour of batteries, making Tesla's cars and energy storage products (giant batteries used for power reserves in residences, commercial and industrial buildings, and even by energy utilities) much more affordable. Without it, the growth that Tesla plans simply wouldn't be possible.
"The Gigafactory is the final piece of the Tesla rocket"

At the moment, Tesla's electric cars get all the attention, but Musk says its storage products could end up just as big. Stationary storage is "something I think will probably be as big as the car business long term," Musk said. "And will actually have a growth rate probably several times that of what the car business is per year. The growth in stationary storage is really under appreciated. That’s a super-exponential growth rate." Tesla’s Powerwall and Powerpack are being assembled at the Gigafactory today.

To make an analogy to SpaceX, another Musk venture, Tesla has spent the last decade getting itself to the launchpad. The Gigafactory is the final piece of the Tesla rocket, the last check before takeoff. Now we get to see if the launch is nominal or blows up before it can get off the ground.

But unlike at SpaceX, where a single exploded rocket is a mere setback, the failure of the Gigafactory would be a $5 billion mistake. It would have real potential to kill off Tesla. The entire company — indeed, Musk’s entire electrified dream — is at stake.

It's hard to judge Musk's even-more-ambitious plan to put a man on Mars. It's so far away, literally and figuratively, that it's easy to laugh off any predictions of success or failure. But the Gigafactory is here today. I stood inside it. Colonizing another planet is certainly cooler than a giant building full of batteries, but pulling this off would be a moonshot in its own right.
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Tesla's Master Plan, Part 2
« Reply #66 on: July 28, 2016, 07:15:27 PM »
Tesla's Master Plan, Part 2

Originally posted by Big Gav at http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2016/07/teslas-master-plan-part-2.html

Elon Musk has a great blog post up outlining Tesla's updated plan for the future - Master Plan, Part Deux.

From the point of view of this blog, Musk is the most important person on the planet as he's been the most successful at accelerating development of 3 of the 4 pillars of the clean energy economy - electric vehicles, energy storage and (to a lesser extent) solar power.

Quote
The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

* Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
* Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
* Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
And...
* Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.

The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.

Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.

However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.

By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:

* Integrate Energy Generation and Storage ...
* Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport ...
* Autonomy ...
* Sharing ...

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

* Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
* Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
* Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
* Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
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Offline JRM

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #67 on: July 28, 2016, 07:32:29 PM »
If Musk really wants to be of help to us all, let him help us rebuild our nation's rail system.
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Tesla Is A Zero - Karl Denninger
« Reply #68 on: July 29, 2016, 10:29:47 PM »
If Musk really wants to be of help to us all, let him help us rebuild our nation's rail system.
LOL... Well, he's working on that... sort of....

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