AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 227629 times)

Offline MKing

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #240 on: June 01, 2015, 09:00:03 PM »
They need 375 million a day to fill their cars, every day. They must sure like to cruise the local burger joints!! So they need 375 million X 365 = 136 billion barrels of crude per year.  Current reserves stand at maybe 1.5 trillion, so those Chinese folks would use up all reserves in about a decade.


A fine way to piss away the last of the earth's most valuable resource, too, don't you think?

Nope. EVs are better. The need for crude at those kinds of levels for the Chinese is a competitive disadvantage in this century. The sooner they learn that oil is obsolete the better. The advantage that America has in this century is that it is learning this now, and the Chinese will be distracted for at least a generation with recreating something that is obsolete. Let them, and good riddance.

Quote from: Eddie
Chinese middle class, headed for Burger King.

They get the obesity and diabetes and "middle class clap" soon enough. Will be fun to watch.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #241 on: June 02, 2015, 05:35:12 AM »
What exactly does Ashton Carter think the Chinese are going to buy from us?
Great question, Eddie! And there is no clear answer.  Insurance? Financial services?  Oh, wait, maybe iPads. Whatever. We do make some odds and ends that might interest them, but not much that they cannot reverse engineer and produce cheaper within a couple years.

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Because last time I checked, there wasn't enough petroleum left on earth to fill up the tanks of 525 million Chinese middle-class drivers.
There does not need to be enough oil for a billion new asian drivers. Instead, they will be driving EVs. I report this sadly, because I think our auto culture is rather psychotic and NOT worthy of replicating (there, or anywhere). But it appears that the personal auto is an aspiration for zillions of people, and there's nothing I can say that will change that. In any case, they will drive EVs. Renewable energy is now cheap enough, battery problems are being solved, and it is just a matter of time for the buildout/conversion. 20 years.

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So who are Obummer and Carter really interested in helping?
You answered this yourself, prior in your post:
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"Us" being a relative term anyway, meaning multi-national corporations that still have American names.
Ding ding ding!

To the extent that they can. But most of the MNCs have long since migrated elsewhere, anyway.

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #242 on: June 02, 2015, 05:56:35 AM »
Happy motoring will go on forever, we're all idiots, etc., etc.
Yes, you're all idiots, same as I was an idiot, and probably still am. I bought-in to the whole peak-oil-doom/civilizational-collapse-etc. story, heavy, circa 1998-2005 (with an interim period of awakening and questioning, 2006-2009). What can I say? It was a phase that I went through, like puberty.

I think now that it is impossible to avoid being an idiot. It is only possible to progressively, incrementally develop toward more refined and advanced forms of idiocy.

I'm sad to report that motoring (probably of a not-so-happy sort) will indeed go on forever, or for a long time. I was hoping -- I mean truly HOPING, and expecting, that the oil crunch would cause our infernal auto-culture to collapse and be permanently vanquished. I hate cars. But, sadly, I must admit that developments over the past 10 years and foreseeable over the next 20 -- EVs, batteries, cheap electricity --  will make it possible to extend the god damned car culture for many decades, if not forever. Gak! Oh, well. I had my hopes.

So yeah, we might look like this after all...



Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #243 on: June 02, 2015, 05:58:16 AM »
But how many cars in your own good sized family? Aren't they "middle class" by your own description? How much precious resource is being "pissed" away right there? HUH?  Whadja say?                                                Karpatok

Plenty. I have, however, embarked on a path that I hope will change that. I suppose no one in your family ever drove cars? I didn't make this world, I was born into it.

I was merely pointing out that providing all the up-and-comers in Asia with fossil fuel to run autos is not just a bad idea, it's mathematically impossible.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #244 on: June 02, 2015, 06:19:29 AM »
Nope. EVs are better.

I'm sad to report that motoring (probably of a not-so-happy sort) will indeed go on forever, or for a long time. I was hoping -- I mean truly HOPING, and expecting, that the oil crunch would cause our infernal auto-culture to collapse and be permanently vanquished. I hate cars. But, sadly, I must admit that developments over the past 10 years and foreseeable over the next 20 -- EVs, batteries, cheap electricity --  will make it possible to extend the god damned car culture for many decades, if not forever. Gak! Oh, well. I had my hopes.

 I expect I know about as much about eV's and renewable energy in general than almost any lay person you might run into.

I bought my first hybrid vehicle 6 years ago now, and I have a second plug-in hybrid, and fully intend to go to an all electric vehicle in the near future.

I've learned to build wind generators from scratch, learned to actually make solar panels (not the individual wafers, of course). I've built a completely portable PV system that works, far superior to anything you can buy from Goal Zero.

Right now I'm in the big middle of building a 4.5kW/800Ah system. Personally.

So, when I say that it is HIGHLY unlikely that eV's will evolve and take over Happy Motoring as the two of you describe, it's not the ignorant rant of some bullshit artist.

There are a variety of resource issues that have no reasonable work-arounds at this time that would prevent it.

It's a pipe dream.



What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #245 on: June 02, 2015, 06:33:47 AM »
But how many cars in your own good sized family? Aren't they "middle class" by your own description? How much precious resource is being "pissed" away right there? HUH?  Whadja say?                                                Karpatok

Plenty. I have, however, embarked on a path that I hope will change that. I suppose no one in your family ever drove cars? I didn't make this world, I was born into it.

I was merely pointing out that providing all the up-and-comers in Asia with fossil fuel to run autos is not just a bad idea, it's mathematically impossible.

Those of us born into this place at a particular point in time "lucked out".  We got to live the high energy consumptive lifestyle.

Most of us did not even realize this had its limits when we were younger.  What was sold to us was that it would not just continue onward, but get bigger and better all the time.  There would be Flying cars.  There would be Starships and Food Replicators.  The Universe was our Oyster and Infinite Growth was not just possible, but DESTINY!

I believed this shit myself well into my 30s I think, but anyone who believes it NOW has their head firmly planted up their own asshole.  It's so obviously a false premise only really delusionary people can buy this idea anymore.

The Chinese are trying to walk down the SAME road, but they got to the PAHHTY a Day Late and a Yuan short.  The Keg is just about out of Beer now.

It is quite clear there is no means whatsoever for 1B Chinese to do Happy Motoring, even in EVs.  They will not complete building Thorium Nuke Plants, nor is it too likely they will complete building a high speed rail line from Beiing to Moscow either.  The deluded people who believe this sort of shit simply ignore evidence and spin another false narrative.  If you buy it, you are as deluded as they are.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #246 on: June 02, 2015, 06:59:14 AM »
  Your rationales are so clearly delusional there is no need to rebut them.  Anyone who could read through that nonsense and believe what you write themself is a hopeless case.
Fine. Just letting you know that, whenever you have anything specific by way of reply, my door is always open. That's because I've left the office and am out having a beer.  ;)

Remember that i'll be stopping back once or twice per year, to check up on things. We'll see how it all turns out. The internet makes for a PERMANENT public record, which should give you pause. The clock is ticking on  your doomerism. You have to deliver the goods, sooner or later.  Yes, you can always say "next month" or "next year" or "soon", but credibility is not unlimited. It runs out, after a while. That's part of the reason for various peaker meltdowns, e.g. matt savinar. That's why places like TAE -- calling market tops every few months,  all through one of the greatest bull markets in history -- have become stagnant little backwaters.  (Same thing has caught steve from va, I believe.)

tick tock tick tock

................................

for history buffs:
https://web.archive.org/web/20150106123802/http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/
« Last Edit: June 02, 2015, 12:01:36 PM by alan2102 »

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #247 on: June 02, 2015, 07:14:18 AM »
They need 375 million a day to fill their cars, every day. They must sure like to cruise the local burger joints!! So they need 375 million X 365 = 136 billion barrels of crude per year.  Current reserves stand at maybe 1.5 trillion, so those Chinese folks would use up all reserves in about a decade.


A fine way to piss away the last of the earth's most valuable resource, too, don't you think?

Don't forget Alan's claim that there will be MULTIPLES of that 525 million middle class Chinese, very soon now.

Just for the record: it was not MY claim, but that of Sec'y of Defense Carter, who could be expected to have good sources of intelligence. Quoth he:  ”There are already more than 525 million middle class consumers in Asia, and we expect there to be 3.2 billion in the region by 2030"., i.e. 2.5 doublings in 15 years!  Phenomenally fast growth of the middle class.


Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #248 on: June 02, 2015, 07:18:42 AM »
But how many cars in your own good sized family? Aren't they "middle class" by your own description? How much precious resource is being "pissed" away right there? HUH?  Whadja say?                                                Karpatok

Karpatok, your family, and my family, and Eddie's family, don't count. It is only those gooks  PEOPLE OVER THERE who must tighten their belts and stop burning all that coal, to save the environment.

Offline steve from virginia

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #249 on: June 02, 2015, 07:19:30 AM »
Yes, China has had "excess capacity" for years. And has had "ghost cities" for years. And yet, the "excess capacity" strangely, magically gets soaked-up, and the factories do NOT close down, the ships do NOT get docked, the airports do NOT close down, etc., etc. They keep on using the things that you say they are not using. And the "ghost cities" FILL UP. In other words, they chug along. The deflationary meltdown does NOT happen.

Your original statement, to which I was responding, was this: "Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now)." That's wrong. That's WILDLY wrong.


How so? You are saying that Wall Street Journal, Financial Times etc. are not telling the truth; your alternative to their observations is 'magic'. None of establishment business publishers are 'anti-China' or 'doomers'. You have the obligation to put up or shut up. Where is your evidence that anything you have to say is true?

BTW: China's ghost cities' are still there, China still has excess manufacturing capacity,, that excess is increasing, (factory work is moving out of Chine due to wage pressures), as in the West, China has the (borrowed) funds to build but not to maintain.

Because China cannot gain a return from its so-called 'assets' it must either abandon them (they're stranded) or pay to keep them in readiness; to meet that cost requires additional rounds of loans. Sorry, an enterprise either shows a return or it doesn't. This is not a strictly Chinese issue but is endemic to the process. No industry anywhere offers a return, it simply doesn't. What pays is loans: we have financialization and what it is able to pay for, what creditors are willing to lend toward. Right now the lenders support China but there is no inherent interest that requires them to do so. They can lend to Brazil next or not lend at all and the entire enterprise falls apart ...

There are no loans to Greece and there are all kinds of problems. China is as dependent upon outside lending as Greece it just pretends otherwise.

Because China cannot generate its own credit it must borrow dollars (yen, euros, sterling); that is, it must sell overpriced, cheaply made crap to Americans and others so that the customers borrow and send the hard-currency proceeds to China.

As Americans (and Europeans and the rest) go broke there are fewer borrowed dollars, less money to support stranded Chinese assets. This is evidenced by the Chinese government attempting to shift its economy from export driven sales to increased domestic consumption (where it can use its own 'money'). Whether this succeeds or not depends upon the Chinese themselves ... who are taking whatever hard currency they can out of the country. In other words, the Chinese vote with their own wallets to hold dollars outside of China rather than holding Chinese RMB along with whatever it is a proxy for.

This is how the Chinese funding cycle actually works:

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2014/02/15/debtonomics-currency-crisis-3/

If you don't understand this- or that part of the explanation, ask.

You can also read any number of Chinese economists -- you know, people who actually spend time examining various countries' economies -- and find this out for yourself.

« Last Edit: June 02, 2015, 07:45:52 AM by steve from virginia »

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #250 on: June 02, 2015, 07:27:35 AM »
I expect I know about as much about eV's and renewable energy in general than almost any lay person you might run into.

I bought my first hybrid vehicle 6 years ago now, and I have a second plug-in hybrid, and fully intend to go to an all electric vehicle in the near future.

I've learned to build wind generators from scratch, learned to actually make solar panels (not the individual wafers, of course). I've built a completely portable PV system that works, far superior to anything you can buy from Goal Zero.

Right now I'm in the big middle of building a 4.5kW/800Ah system. Personally.

So, when I say that it is HIGHLY unlikely that eV's will evolve and take over Happy Motoring as the two of you describe, it's not the ignorant rant of some bullshit artist.

There are a variety of resource issues that have no reasonable work-arounds at this time that would prevent it.

It's a pipe dream.

With all due respect, Eddie, (and I DO respect you for having courage of conviction, and being a hard worker to bring about - physically - the things that you talk about; seriously), I don't think that your personal experience building PV systems and whatnot has much, if anything, to do with the knowledge and ability required to assess the feasibility of mass EV use. YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT that it is a "pipe dream", having "issues with no work-arounds", but the personal experiences you mention do not qualify you to say those things with authority.

You might wish to mention the specific issues that have no work-arounds, in your view. I will listen politely. Seriously. I am interested in your take on this.

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #251 on: June 02, 2015, 07:56:10 AM »
(Same thing has caught steve from va, I believe.)
You mean, the guy who predicted in 2012 that the price of oil would crash in late 2014?
The guy who predicted again in 2013 that the price of oil would crash in late 2014?
The guy who predicted again in early 2014 that the price of oil would crash in late 2014?
The guy who said in late 2014 that a crash in oil prices was happening?

Methinks the record is kind to him.  He needs a break from being right.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline knarf

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This is the way it is being experienced by actual people.......May 12, 2015

After writing my post this morning about China's economic future, I got an email response from an American who lived there for nearly two decades and had a different perspective on what China's biggest problem might be going forward. Obviously this is just one person's opinion, and I can't independently vouch for it, but I thought it was interesting enough to share. Here it is:

I read with interest your musings on the future of China. As it happens, I lived for 17 years in Beijing, married, and started a family there.

I believe the macro-level statistics and phenomena you discuss are all trailing indicators. I left China with my family almost five years ago as a large number of interrelated quality-of-life issues became increasingly unbearable. Those factors have continued to worsen since then at an accelerating rate, to the point where the economy is now largely driven by people trying to earn or steal enough money to leave.

The once-thriving expat community in Beijing has shriveled to nearly nothing. The cost of living is approaching world-capital (NY, London, Tokyo, etc.) levels for a miserable existence. The local culture has become increasingly desperate and cutthroat. And Beijing is one of the more attractive places in China to live, work, and raise a family.

People, generally, and Chinese especially, will tolerate all sorts of deprivation in service of a better future for their children. And that is largely what has driven the rapid pace of Chinese development since the end of the Cultural Revolution and the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's opening and reform policies. My feeling is that biggest challenge ahead for China is when the population at large concludes that a better future for their children is no longer in the cards.

When it happens, it will happen gradually, then suddenly. And what happens after that, no one can say, but a continuation of the policies driving hyper-accelerated GDP growth over all else probably isn't it.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/05/chinas-future-take-2
« Last Edit: June 02, 2015, 08:42:42 AM by knarf »
Mark Twain — 'There are many humorous things in the world; among them, the white man's notion that he is less savage than the other savages.'

Offline Surly1

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #253 on: June 02, 2015, 09:17:52 AM »
Thanks for playing, alan.
You're welcome.

Hey, Surly, you're welcome to chime in with something substantive, any time you like. Call me onto the carpet, point out specific straw men, whatever. Demolish my arguments!  Go for it!

I won't hold my breath.
  Well Alan, here is what is really done when they have no substantive answer. They just erase your comment altogether. Then they can get back to their delusions about other people's denial. Smooth, No?  Defensive? Not a bit. Just good old Nazi Fascist behavior like the Ukraine. Next step, just MURDER the opposition, that will shut them up for good, won't it. Won't it?                            Karpatok

Or we can just let them execute themselves by their own words, as they wrap their tongues around their own throats.

The only posters here who face moderation are those who have demonstrated a desire to disrupt or harm the board. Your comments alleging coprophagia, necrophilia, or pederasty will continue to be removed, as they serve no useful point other than to underline your own unhappiness and misery.

I disagree with Alan on many points. Yet he makes cogent arguments, provides a degree of evidence, and does not resort to ad hom as a first resort. You might do well to learn from his example.

Ukrainian Nazi indeed. Ironies abound, as it is I who actually bothers to moderate and approve your posts.
"...reprehensible lying communist..."

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #254 on: June 02, 2015, 09:19:19 AM »
I don't think that your personal experience building PV systems and whatnot has much, if anything, to do with the knowledge and ability required to assess the feasibility of mass EV use. YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT that it is a "pipe dream", having "issues with no work-arounds", but the personal experiences you mention do not qualify you to say those things with authority.

Fair enough. I only meant to point out that I'm not as ignorant about the engineering aspects as the typical layman. I understand how renewables, as they now exist, work. What the components are, how they're manufactured, and how extremely fussy and fragile they are compared to internal combustion technology. Compared to coal fired electric utilities.

To what I said before, I would add that I've read a variety of futurists, and they pretty much all say the same things. (With the exceptions of a few, like Ray Kurzweil, who think computers can solve any problem.)

All currently viable renewables are HEAVILY dependent on resources that require huge fossil fuel inputs to recover. Some of them are also fairly rare, like silver and neodymium. Others, like the specific kind of silicon used for PV cells, are not terribly rare, but still require very high energy inputs to obtain.

I've read that there isn't enough silver on earth to make enough PV's to transition to the kind of cheap energy paradigm the modern world is predicated upon. I know that there are other possibilities, but, as of now, silver is still "it" for soldering panels.

Chip manufacturing is also an energy sucking, environmentally unfriendly process.

So there's the problem set:

Not enough raw materials to build what we need, based on the current state of the art.

Declining EROEI numbers for renewables, based on the premise that cost is always a factor, and costs look to be going up, due to the nature of extractive mining, where the most easily recoverable resources are always recovered first.

Current pricing for PV's and even wind generators is not honest, given that both are being heavily subsidized. Even at the current artificially low prices, the cost of building arrays is still around $2 a watt. It takes more than panels to build out a system, btw.

An uncertain future exists for availability of cheap fossil fuels to make the extractive mining industries and manufacturing economically viable.

Yes, you're all idiots, same as I was an idiot, and probably still am. I bought-in to the whole peak-oil-doom/civilizational-collapse-etc. story, heavy, circa 1998-2005 (with an interim period of awakening and questioning, 2006-2009). What can I say? It was a phase that I went through, like puberty.

I think now that it is impossible to avoid being an idiot. It is only possible to progressively, incrementally develop toward more refined and advanced forms of idiocy.


Nobody knows how long BAU can persist. It will persist until it doesn't. But it's easy to see that we have to hit a wall sometime. Those who claim that this is not so are the idiots. The handwriting on the wall is very clear.

To that, I'd add that our extremely difficult predicament is made worse by those who deny that there's a problem. Our leaders in the world are making matters far worse by kicking the can down the road for as long as they can.

If..we need to transition to renewables, as you yourself admit, how will we do that on any kind of reasonable timeline, when no leadership exists to promote that, absent the motive of obscene corporate profit? Here or China.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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