AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 202653 times)

Offline Surly1

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Re: 📱 Free Huawei executive or face consequences, China warns Canada
« Reply #810 on: December 09, 2018, 04:53:20 AM »
Free Huawei executive or face consequences, China warns Canada

Meng Wanzhou faces extradition to the US where she has been charged with fraud and could be jailed for 30 years.
5 hours ago

If I were a high level US tech corporate official, I would be giving China a very wide berth right now.

Seen from a far enough away historical context, this look much like the taking and ransoming of hostages in medieval days, only in different drag.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

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🚢 China, Other Emerging Asia Sink World Trade
« Reply #811 on: April 27, 2019, 01:20:50 AM »
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/25/world-trade-falls-most-since-financial-crisis-hit-by-china-other-emerging-asia/


China, Other Emerging Asia Sink World Trade


China, Other Emerging Asia Sink World Trade

World trade volume falls most since Financial Crisis.

World trade volume, which had been growing at a strong pace last year, peaking at 5.6% year-over-year growth in October, started turning down in November, and by February — according to the Merchandise World Trade Monitor, released today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis — it was down 3.4% from the peak in October and down 1.1% from February a year earlier.

The less volatile three-month moving average sank for the fourth month in a row, and is down 2.4% from the October peak and down about 1% from a year earlier. This kind of decline in world trade just hasn’t happened since the Global Financial Crisis:

The biggest culprits: Imports and exports by China and the emerging Asian economies of Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Singapore. China is by far the largest economy in this “Emerging Asia” and by far the largest importer and exporter.

Exports by this economically vast and rapidly growing region fell 8.3% in February from a year earlier, after having zigzagged lower for months, according to the World Trade Monitor. This data is volatile with large month-to-month ups-and-downs. The three-month moving average, which smoothens out some of that volatility, dropped 5.6% from a year ago:

Imports by China and the rest of Emerging Asia fell 3.6% in February, compared to a year earlier, according to the World Trade Monitor. The three-month moving average dropped 2.8% from a year ago and was back at the level of November 2017:

“Emerging Asia” is dominated by the giant economy of China. And these falling imports add to the signs of suddenly and sharply weakening demand in China. But part of the imports are materials and components that go into goods to be exported, and the decline in exports from the region says a thing or two about demand from outside the region.

US trade growth is split. And there is nothing unusual in the charts. The index for imports by the US, after hitting a record in December, dropped in January and inched down further in February. In terms of the three-month moving average, the index for imports in February was just a tad off its all-time high in January, and up 2.3% year-over-year.

But the US index for exports had peaked in June 2018 in terms of its three-month moving average, and as of February was 2% below that peak. This decline was only about half the decline in 2015 and 2016.

Eurozone trade is stagnating. Imports have been stagnating since about November 2017, with the three-month moving average going up and down within a tight range. In February, it was up just a tad from a year ago.

Eurozone exports peaked in January 2018, then dropped and have been stagnating in a tight range, with the three-month moving average down a tad year-over-year and is 1% below its peak of January 2018.

Japan trade is in a down-trend. The index for imports by Japan has dropped four months in a row. The three-month moving average is now a tad below where it was a year ago.

The index for exports by Japan peaked in January 2018 and has trended down since then, with the three-month moving average in February down 2.6% from that peak.

Latin America imports strong, exports surge. The index for imports into the region, after setting a new record in January, dipped in February. The three-month moving average of the imports index also set a record in January and dipped in February.

Exports have been rising solidly since April 2017 but then in August 2018 started spiking. The three-month moving average, after a record January, dipped in February, still the second highest value of the index. This spike through January is extraordinary since the Financial Crisis:

So what is going on here, with Asia trade dropping steeply, as exports from Latin America are spiking? One of the possibilities is that Latin America, particularly Mexico, is starting to pick up some of the trade the US had with China.

But Latin America’s trade strength is only a smallish factor in the global scenario. And at the global level, trade is skidding, despite strength in some corners, and possible shifting of trade from one region to another.

So each country and each economic region has its own dynamics. But of the four largest economic areas, US trade is the cleanest dirty shirt, so to speak with a mixed performance, while Eurozone trade is stagnating, Japan’s trade is in a down trend, and Emerging Asia’s trade is declining at a worrisome pace.

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Offline RE

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🚅 How is China's New Silk Road transforming Vietnam and Laos?
« Reply #812 on: April 27, 2019, 03:46:27 AM »
Must...keep...building...Must...keep...growing...MOAR Malls!

Meanwhile, international trade is collapsing.  Sense a problem here?

RE

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/D2mUa8VavDc" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/D2mUa8VavDc</a>
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 03:48:32 AM by RE »
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🛢️ China’s Oil Industry Braces For Worst-Case Trade War Scenario
« Reply #813 on: June 03, 2019, 12:09:31 AM »
How will they keep those factories running?  ???  :icon_scratch:

RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Industry-Braces-For-Worst-Case-Trade-War-Scenario.html

China’s Oil Industry Braces For Worst-Case Trade War Scenario
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 02, 2019, 2:00 PM CDT


As the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate, Beijing and its energy giants appear to be bracing for a worst-case scenario where the spat would drag on for years and possibly result in Chinese foreign oil supply stifled.   

The idea that the world’s top oil importer could see some of its overseas crude supply blocked has always been an unthinkable notion, but now some analysts and Chinese industry executives suggest that China should prepare for the very worst of the worst, such as its oil supply impacted by a lengthy trade dispute.

“China is now looking at its oil supply situation from the worst-case scenario, like what the U.S. has done to Iran,” Laban Yu, an analyst with Jefferies Group LLC in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg.

“Obviously, China believes now more than ever that similar U.S. sanctions against a whole country could happen to China,” Yu added.

Chinese oil industry executives said this past week that China’s oil industry must have a contingency plan in case the trade war takes another turn for the worse. 

According to Bloomberg, Wang Yilin, chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), told employees to prepare for a “protracted” trade conflict, while Fu Chengyu, former chairman at Sinopec, said that China should be ready for the extreme and far-fetched case that its oil supply could be blocked in the short term. 

Industry executives also stressed the need that China should work to achieve ‘energy self-sufficiency’, which, according to Fu, has become an “urgent reality.”

China’s oil import dependence is at 70 percent currently, so it can’t achieve this self-sufficiency in a decade or two, even if it were to start steadily reversing its declining oil production and tap more shale oil and gas resources.
Related: How Clean Is “Freedom Gas”?

Over the past year, China’s biggest energy producers have started to tap more tight oil and gas wells, aiming to increase domestic oil and natural gas production at the world’s largest crude oil importer.
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A PetroChina test oil well at a shale field in western China could finally mean a strong commercial potential for shale oil for the first time in the world’s top crude importer, Morgan Stanley said earlier this year. The shale boom in China, however, would be just a fraction of the U.S. shale revolution—Morgan Stanley expects Chinese shale oil production could reach between 100,000 bpd and 200,000 bpd by 2025, which is nothing compared to the millions of barrels of oil pumped in the United States every day.

According to analysts at S&P Global Platts Analytics and Wood Mackenzie, China is set to miss its 2020 shale gas production targets, due to complex geology, low well productivity, marginal economics, and infrastructure constraints.

‘Energy independence’ is still a far-fetched idea in China’s case.

Equally far-fetched is the idea that the fallout from the trade war could result in stifling Chinese oil imports, according to Neil Beveridge, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co in Hong Kong.
Related: Why Oil Majors Are Going All-In On U.S. Shale

“It only happens when both countries are going into war. Cutting off oil supplies to China to some extent is equal to a declaration of war,” Beveridge told Bloomberg.

China, however, appears to be filling in its strategic petroleum reserves in recent months, as it has been boosting oil imports by 10 percent while refining output has been growing at 5 percent, according to the analyst.

Due to the trade spat, over the past few months China has also only sporadically bought crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States—a sharp reversal from the booming Chinese imports of American energy at this time last year. There were even some months where China purchased no U.S. crude oil at all, according to EIA data. It has also drastically reduced LNG imports from the U.S. as China has a 10-percent import tariff on American LNG—a tariff set to rise to 25 percent on June 1. Even those Chinese buyers that have continued to purchase U.S. LNG are now looking to swap American cargoes for cargoes from nations not subject to tariffs, traders with knowledge of the plans told Bloomberg earlier in May.

With the trade war heating up, China appears to be rallying all means and resources available to reduce the role of the U.S. in its economy and economic growth, as Beijing has lost trust in the United States both as a supplier and an export market, Jefferies Group’s Yu told Bloomberg.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Offline RE

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😠 Violence breaks out in Hong Kong over extradition bill debate
« Reply #814 on: June 12, 2019, 07:09:03 AM »
...and you thought the Gilet Jaunes street action in France was rough?  The Chinese are SERIOUS on the street.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/vuijkImP9eM" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/vuijkImP9eM</a>

RE
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😠 Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
« Reply #815 on: June 13, 2019, 12:38:59 AM »
Shutting down Da Goobermint for a few days is a pretty successful result for a street action!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/hong-kong-extradition-bill-a-new-day-of-anti-government-protests.html

Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
Published Wed, Jun 12 2019 8:19 PM EDTUpdated 2 hours ago
Kelly Olsen

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/EE1f_W9yaKs" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/EE1f_W9yaKs</a>
   
   
Key Points

    Government offices in the financial district were closed for the rest of the week due to the protests.
    Police and demonstrators clashed for hours on Wednesday as citizens protested against Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s proposed legal amendments that would allow people in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China.
    Nearly 80 people were hospitalized during Wednesday’s protests, with two described as in serious condition, the government said.

VIDEO03:20
Enforcement authorities will not tolerate violence: Hong Kong leader

Hong Kong braced for the possibility of more anti-government protests on Thursday after scenes of violence and chaos rocked the normally peaceful global trade and finance center a day earlier.

Riot police were visible on the street near the local legislature — the epicenter of Wednesday’s turmoil — but their presence was lighter, as rain poured down on the city before skies later cleared. There were few signs of protesters in the area.

Still, government offices in the financial district were closed for the rest of the week due to the protests and the main subway station servicing the area near the Legislative Council — the assembly’s official name — remained shut.

Police and demonstrators clashed for hours on Wednesday as citizens protested Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s proposed legal amendments that would allow people in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China.

Protesters gathered at the legislature because lawmakers were scheduled to debate the plan, but they ultimately could not because of the disruption caused by the protest.

And on Thursday, Legco — as the Legislative Council is informally known — announced in a statement that there would be no meeting that day either.
GS: Hong Kong Protester Tear Gas 190613
A protester throw a teargas canister to police on a bridge during a demonstration on June 12, 2019 in Hong Kong.
Anthony Kwan | Getty Images

Wednesday’s violence broke out outside the legislature after it was surrounded by demonstrators. Police wielding batons and riot shields fired tear gas and rubber bullets at the crowds, and protesters used open umbrellas in defense, with some throwing objects at police.

The government said a total of 79 people had been injured and hospitalized as of 11 a.m. local time Thursday, with two described as in serious condition.

Lam, who has refused to withdraw or delay the extradition plan, held her ground and condemned the protests as “intolerable” in a Wednesday evening video address.

“Clearly, this is no longer a peaceful assembly but a blatant, organised riot, and in no way an act of loving Hong Kong,” she said.
One country, two systems

The protests, which kicked off over the weekend with a massive rally, underscore worries about what is seen as a broader erosion of Hong Kong’s rights and freedoms in relation to China.

Hong Kong citizens, who enjoy a British-based legal system independent from the rest of China, fear the plan could threaten those judicial protections and their broader autonomy as well.

“The general perception is that the law is ... designed to create some kind of deterrence effect against the pro-democracy movement and the dissidents in Hong Kong,” Joseph Cheng, a pro-democracy advocate and retired professor of political science, said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
GP: Hong Kong extradition law protsts 190613
Protesters occupy a main road and walkways during a rally against a proposed extradition law in Hong Kong, China, on June 12, 2019.
Paul Yeung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The territory of 7.4 million people, formerly part of the British Empire, has been a specially administered region of China since July 1, 1997.

It has its own government, currency, police force and civil service. Under a unique “one country, two systems” framework, China handles foreign affairs and defense and the the People’s Liberation Army maintains a small garrison but keeps a low profile.

Lam, who says the legal changes are necessary, categorically denied Monday the idea that they were proposed by the central government in Beijing. Still, the Chinese government is on record as backing the bill, though Beijing has denied trying to water down Hong Kong’s autonomy.

“Hong Kong people’s rights and freedoms have been fully guaranteed,” Geng Shuang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said at a regular briefing Wednesday in Beijing.
‘Tyranny opens fire’

The violence appeared to shock Hong Kong.

Local newspapers carried photos of the clashes on their front pages. “Tyranny opens fire on us,” the liberal Apple Daily wrote in Chinese on its front page over a photo of riot police squaring off with demonstrators.

“I’m hurt. It’s sad,” a local government worker, who requested anonymity, told CNBC on Thursday morning. “It’s dangerous,” he said of the violence that rocked the city.

Police said that 240,000 people participated at the peak of Sunday’s protest that saw throngs march down a main street shouting slogans and carrying signs denouncing the legislation and demanding Lam resign.

Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million. The last time Hong Kong saw a protest of such scale was in 2003 when an estimated 500,000 people rallied against a proposed security law that also raised fears of closer links to China.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken a hit, closing 1.73% lower on Wednesday after slumping as much as 2% in the afternoon session, amid the street clashes. It continued its slide Thursday, initially falling about 1% before recovering about half of the losses.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: 😠 Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
« Reply #816 on: June 13, 2019, 02:53:15 AM »
Shutting down Da Goobermint for a few days is a pretty successful result for a street action!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/hong-kong-extradition-bill-a-new-day-of-anti-government-protests.html

Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices

Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million. The last time Hong Kong saw a protest of such scale was in 2003 when an estimated 500,000 people rallied against a proposed security law that also raised fears of closer links to China.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken a hit, closing 1.73% lower on Wednesday after slumping as much as 2% in the afternoon session, amid the street clashes. It continued its slide Thursday, initially falling about 1% before recovering about half of the losses.

Especially when you consider that street protests are always ineffective and never change anything, per some here.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: 😠 Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
« Reply #817 on: June 13, 2019, 03:03:14 AM »
Shutting down Da Goobermint for a few days is a pretty successful result for a street action!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/hong-kong-extradition-bill-a-new-day-of-anti-government-protests.html

Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices

Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million. The last time Hong Kong saw a protest of such scale was in 2003 when an estimated 500,000 people rallied against a proposed security law that also raised fears of closer links to China.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken a hit, closing 1.73% lower on Wednesday after slumping as much as 2% in the afternoon session, amid the street clashes. It continued its slide Thursday, initially falling about 1% before recovering about half of the losses.

Especially when you consider that street protests are always ineffective and never change anything, per some here.

They don't, at least the peaceful ones don't.  They also need to escalate to full blown civil war to effect real change.

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: 😠 Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
« Reply #818 on: June 13, 2019, 03:20:24 AM »
Shutting down Da Goobermint for a few days is a pretty successful result for a street action!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/hong-kong-extradition-bill-a-new-day-of-anti-government-protests.html

Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices

Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million. The last time Hong Kong saw a protest of such scale was in 2003 when an estimated 500,000 people rallied against a proposed security law that also raised fears of closer links to China.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken a hit, closing 1.73% lower on Wednesday after slumping as much as 2% in the afternoon session, amid the street clashes. It continued its slide Thursday, initially falling about 1% before recovering about half of the losses.

Especially when you consider that street protests are always ineffective and never change anything, per some here.

They don't, at least the peaceful ones don't.  They also need to escalate to full blown civil war to effect real change.

RE

So which is it: "pretty successful" per your first statement, clear to all to read above, or futile per your last? Pick a side of your mouth to talk out of.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

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Re: 😠 Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices
« Reply #819 on: June 13, 2019, 06:13:59 AM »
Shutting down Da Goobermint for a few days is a pretty successful result for a street action!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/hong-kong-extradition-bill-a-new-day-of-anti-government-protests.html

Hong Kong braces for protests as government shuts offices

Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million. The last time Hong Kong saw a protest of such scale was in 2003 when an estimated 500,000 people rallied against a proposed security law that also raised fears of closer links to China.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken a hit, closing 1.73% lower on Wednesday after slumping as much as 2% in the afternoon session, amid the street clashes. It continued its slide Thursday, initially falling about 1% before recovering about half of the losses.

Especially when you consider that street protests are always ineffective and never change anything, per some here.

They don't, at least the peaceful ones don't.  They also need to escalate to full blown civil war to effect real change.

RE

So which is it: "pretty successful" per your first statement, clear to all to read above, or futile per your last? Pick a side of your mouth to talk out of.

Oh Good Grief.  Is all you want to do is pick a fight with me?

I have always been a big supporter of demonstrations.  I have published more about Gilet Jaunes than anyone else here.  Similarly with demonstrations in Italy, Spain etc.  I was a big supporter of Occupy, and in fact encouraged you to write about your experiences with Norfolk Occupy when we first began the Diner.  Most recently, I came out on video in support of the Extinction Rebellion movement's demonstrations.  They are very creative. Peaceful though so far, so they won't effect any change until they start tossing the Molotovs.

Your memory and interpretation comes from the days when you were a Peacenik and advocated for PEACEFUL demonstrations.  You have changed of course, now you even periodically agree with me that the Guillotine isn't such a bad idea for guys like Dick Cheney, Michael Bolton and a sprinkling of other lizards running the show here.

Take a chill pill already, I'm not interested in fighting with you every time I check in on the forum.

RE
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😠 How will Hong Kong deal with growing public discontent? (3 Vids)
« Reply #820 on: June 17, 2019, 12:29:31 AM »
The Boys in Black Pajamas are bringing out some big numbers.  2M Homo Saps reported on the street.  However, Beijing is unlikely to back down here.  This will be ongoing until they roll in the tanks.  Street action alone can't change things.  It takes a full blown REVOLUTION.

RE

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/ag7pyYZP1eI" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/ag7pyYZP1eI</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/cipJApobJko" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/cipJApobJko</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/fcJ2xI7hYcY" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/fcJ2xI7hYcY</a>
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 12:49:31 AM by RE »
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https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/06/taiwan-hong-kong-protests-china-extradition-independence.html

The Hong Kong Protests Could Be a Prelude to a Big Showdown Over Taiwan

By Joshua Keating
June 17, 20196:02 PM

Protesters display placards during a demonstration in Taipei on Sunday in support of the continuing protests taking place in Hong Kong.
Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images

More on Asia

    Can You Really Stop Tear Gas With a Water Bottle Like the Hong Kong Protesters?
    Ocean Vuong’s Debut Novel Is a Cascading Meditation on Generational Trauma
    Hong Kong’s Massive Protests May Be Chinese Democracy’s Last Stand
    What It Will Take to Stop the Destruction of India’s Democracy

Advocates of democracy in Hong Kong notched an impressive victory in their long-running fight with the People’s Republic of China last weekend when the city’s pro-Beijing chief executive, Carrie Lam, indefinitely shelved a controversial extradition law in response to mass protests that saw as many as a million people in the streets at their height. It’s a devastating setback for Lam, but less so for China and its leader, Xi Jinping. Thanks to China’s tight information controls, there’s little risk of unrest spreading to the mainland. And while Chinese leaders would like to accelerate Hong Kong’s integration into the Chinese political system, the territory is becoming more economically (and physically) integrated every day, and its special semiautonomous status is due to end in 2047. China has been waiting since the 19th century to take full control of Hong Kong, and it can afford to be patient for a little longer.

Chinese leaders may feel more concern over the implications the events in Hong Kong hold for what the country considers another of its wayward provinces: Taiwan.

Taiwan has been involved in this latest round of Hong Kong tensions from the beginning. The extradition law was proposed in response to a gruesome case in which a 19-year-old Hong Kong man, Chan Tong-kai, admitted to strangling his pregnant girlfriend Poon Hiu-wing and stuffing her body in a suitcase while the two were on vacation in Taiwan. Chan returned to Hong Kong before he was arrested, and because the city has no extradition treaty with Taiwan, he couldn’t be sent there to face murder charges. He was instead tried for money laundering for using Poon’s credit cards.

But rather than pursue a narrowly tailored law that would apply to this case, Lam pushed a broader bill that would allow selective extradition to a number of countries including China. The bill was widely seen as a Trojan horse that would undermine the city’s political independence.

Notably, the law was not supported by the government of Taiwan, the country it was originally supposed to apply to. Mass rallies in solidarity with Hong Kong were held in Taipei over the weekend, and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen decried the “evil law,” saying Taiwan would not join any extradition treaty that implies it is part of China. She has strongly supported the protesters:

Politically, the timing of the crisis works quite well for the nationalist Tsai, who just fended off a primary challenge from the even more nationalist former Prime Minister William Tai and is facing a tough reelection fight this January.

Taiwan has maintained de facto independence since Chinese nationalist forces relocated there in 1949 after their rout by Mao Zedong’s communists, but Beijing still considers it part of its own territory and has sought to bring it back into the fold. Lately, China has been pressuring the few countries that still have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan to cut them off and has stepped up military exercises in the region. Hard-liners in China’s military are reportedly frustrated with what they see as an overly cautious approach to Taiwan’s continued defiance.

Taiwanese leaders have been wary about declaring full independence for fear of provoking Chinese retaliation, but Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party strongly opposes closer unification with China. The party that founded modern Taiwan, the Kuomintang, now ironically promotes closer ties with Beijing. While most Taiwanese oppose reunification, most also now see it as inevitable, given China’s military and economic strength.

On Jan. 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a major speech on Taiwan policy, which included both carrots and sticks. Xi called reunification inevitable and did not rule out the use of force to achieve it, but he also suggested Taiwan could maintain its autonomy under a “one country, two systems” arrangement like the one in place in Hong Kong since 1997.

The speech backfired, leading to an immediate surge in support for Tsai after her party had suffered a setback in recent local elections. “That was a message to her and her team that beating up on China can be very helpful in boosting her support,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. After the past week, suffice to say, “one country, two systems” looks even less appealing—and resistance to Chinese rule looks just a tiny bit less futile.

Glaser says that from Tsai’s point of view, the images coming out of Hong Kong are “even better” than Xi’s controversial remarks. “This isn’t just a speech. It’s reality.”

The Taiwan-China showdown has significant implications for the U.S., too. While America has not formally recognized Taiwan since normalizing relations with the People’s Republic in 1979, the U.S. has maintained unofficial relations with the island and provided it with significant support in the form of arms sales.
After the past week, “one country, two systems” looks even less appealing—and resistance to Chinese rule looks just a tiny bit less futile.

This support has increased under the Trump administration, amid the overall deterioration in U.S.-China relations. Trump broke protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai during his transition period. He recently signed legislation, which passed with significant congressional support, encouraging U.S. officials to make high-level visits to Taiwan. The Navy has stepped up frequency of the passage of ships through the Taiwan Strait. And the administration is proposing a new $2 billion arms sale to the country. These visible displays of support, over Beijing’s furious objections, have emboldened Taiwan’s nationalists. (In a sign of just how confusing U.S. foreign policy can be in the Trump era, the president recently held an unusual White House meeting with Terry Gou, the billionaire Foxconn chairman who is running for president of Taiwan on a pro-China platform.)

All of this bears watching, if only because an invasion of Taiwan may be the scenario most likely to lead to direct military conflict between the U.S. and China. Despite Xi’s warnings, that still seems unlikely for the moment. But what the past week’s events in Hong Kong and Taiwan’s show of solidarity have demonstrated is that the People’s Republic has a major soft-power problem. Given China’s stunning economic success and rapid rise to global power, it shouldn’t be this hard for its leaders to make the case for unification to places like Hong Kong and Taiwan, given their shared history and culture. One wonders when China’s leaders will run out of patience and resort to more extreme measures.
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Dry Toast.

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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/g9A3HXqZxc4" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/g9A3HXqZxc4</a>
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😠 What is next for Hong Kong's protest movement?
« Reply #823 on: June 23, 2019, 12:49:50 AM »
Either they revolt or Beijing will crush them.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/hong-kong-protest-movement-190622133918494.html

What is next for Hong Kong's protest movement?

The pro-democracy movement has scored another political victory, but can it continue resisting China's encroachment?
by Yuen Chan
4 hours ago


People protest outside police headquarters, demanding Hong Kong’s leaders to step down and withdraw an extradition bill, in Hong Kong on June 21, 2019 [Reuters/Tyrone Siu]

Standing in Harcourt Road - a thoroughfare dividing a high-end shopping and office district on one side from Hong Kong's administrative centre on the other - on the morning of September 29, 2014, I was struck by the sense that something had changed in Hong Kong. I told myself the city would never be quite the same again.

There were people sleeping on the ground, the words "Democracy Now" spray-painted onto a road divider and discarded face-masks on the floor. The night before, police had fired 87 rounds of tear gas at unarmed protesters demanding free and fair elections for Hong Kong's Chief Executive by universal suffrage and the release of students who had been arrested.

It was the heaviest use of force by police on protesters since Britain transferred sovereignty over Hong Kong to China in 1997. But instead of dispersing, the crowds kept coming back. Thus began a 79-day occupation movement that surprised the world no less than Hongkongers themselves. They learned they were prepared to brave tear gas and police batons to fight for democracy.

But the occupation - known as the Umbrella Movement - ended with police clearing the three occupied sites and without winning any concessions on political reform.

This fuelled growing fissures and recriminations between moderates who favoured non-violent protest and leaned towards traditional pro-democratic parties and groupings, and those advocating a more muscular approach, meeting force with force. Politically, the latter were aligned with emerging "localist" groups which promoted a distinct Hong Kong identity entirely separate from China. Increasingly, they supported Hong Kong independence.

The fragmentation of the opposition weakened civil society's response to increased repression from Beijing and the Hong Kong government after the Umbrella Movement. Six pro-democracy legislators were disqualified and kicked out of office; electoral candidates were barred for political reasons; activists were arrested and jailed; the government pushed through a scheme to cede Hong Kong territory to mainland jurisdiction at a new rail terminus; it banned a Hong Kong independence party and expelled a British journalist who hosted a luncheon speech given by that party's leader.

Of course, there were protests but the numbers dwindled and fewer young people took part. The nascent localist and independence movements suffered a heavy blow from hefty prison sentences meted out to those who took part in clashes in the district of Mong Kok in 2016.

Thus until early June, Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement had appeared in retreat.

A sense of fatigue and powerlessness had set in, which some observers mistook for people no longer caring. It was still there when I visited Hong Kong at the end of April. A month earlier a protest to oppose the extradition bill - which would allow the transfer of suspects and fugitives from Hong Kong to mainland China - only managed to draw 12,000 participants, according to the organisers. This despite the fact that pro-democracy groups, members of the business community, lawyers, journalists, foreign diplomats and chambers of commerce had all opposed it.

Several days before another march scheduled for April 28, I asked Joshua Wong, one of the student leaders of the 2014 Umbrella Movement, how many he expected to turn up. "Around 30,000," he replied.

Instead, organisers estimated some 130,000 people marched. It was a turning point. Opposition to the bill gathered steam and a flurry of online petitions initiated by a broad spectrum of groups and organisations, such as school alumni associations, religious groups, professional associations, homemakers, people with disabilities, mainland new immigrants and even manga creators appeared in quick succession.

As it turned out, over the past few years, it wasn't so much that Hong Kong people didn't care about their rights and freedoms any more as the fact that there hadn't been an issue that could pull them out of their political lethargy. 

Many saw the legislation as an existential threat to Hong Kong's survival as a special place with its own system and set of values, different from mainland China's. The extradition bill would remove a firewall between two vastly different legal systems. Unlike the Umbrella Movement, this wasn't about wanting something more but opposing having something taken away.

While society was highly polarised in 2014, it was now united. By June 9, it was no longer surprising that so many marched. Nor was it surprising that an even bigger crowd - estimated at just under two million - went forward with a June 16 march, although the Chief Executive Carrie Lam had announced her decision to suspend the bill the day before. 

Hong Kong's democratic protest movement is back - bigger, stronger and in many ways smarter, having learned lessons from past failures. Gone are the tensions between protest leaders and participants because there were no leaders. Protesters are mobilised to take part in various acts of civil disobedience through encrypted messaging systems and online discussion boards.

Another striking feature of this wave of protest is that participants have so far largely managed to set aside the infighting and recriminations that plagued earlier protests. A much-shared post on the popular internet forum LIHKG stressed the government climb-down was only possible because of the complementary impact of the massive turnout of peaceful protesters and the more militant actions of a small group of protesters who were prepared to charge police barricades.

Many challenges still lie ahead, not least how to sustain momentum without losing public support. The longer civil disobedience actions continue, the harder it is to maintain the informal truce between moderates and radicals, to keep the broad church together. While before there was one single demand - withdraw of the extradition bill - protesters now also demand Lam's resignation, the release of all those arrested in the protests, the removal of the "riot" label attached to the protests on the night of June 9 and on June 12 and an independent inquiry into police brutality - officers fired 150 rounds of tear gas, around 20 beanbags and an unspecified number of rubber bullets injuring 81 people, including many peaceful protesters and journalists.

As Professor Francis Lee, my former colleague and author of the book Media and Protest Logics in the Digital Age said in a post on social media, the movement has shifted from being a defensive one, protecting Hong Kong from the extradition bill, to an offensive one pursuing a list of demands. According to Lee, where it goes from here will be the real test of how far a decentralised, leaderless social movement can go and how much it can achieve.

We are in uncharted waters, pitting the collective wisdom of the crowds against an intransigent, out-of-touch Hong Kong leadership that ultimately takes its instructions from Beijing. President Xi Jinping is not one to give in to dissent.

But in 2019, the world is much warier of the global reach and ambitions of the Chinese party-state. Washington and Beijing are embroiled in a trade war and there is growing international awareness of China's internment of more than a million Muslims, mostly Uighurs in Xinjiang, and its attempts to interfere in Taiwan's thriving democracy.

The Hong Kong protesters are aware of this, too, urging supporters to keep up their actions at least until the G20 summit takes place in Japan later this month. They should try to ensure Hong Kong is viewed as a barometer through which the international community judges how China conducts itself, without becoming a pawn to be sacrificed in the Sino-American spat.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Yuen Chan

Yuen Chan is Senior Lecturer at the Department of Journalism at City, University of London.
@ xinwenxiaojie
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🏘️ The trade war is weighing on Chinese home buying in the US
« Reply #824 on: Today at 06:59:50 AM »
I wonder if this will have any effect on the LA, SF & Seattle RE markets?

RE

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/the-trade-war-is-weighing-on-chinese-home-buying-in-the-us.html

The trade war is weighing on Chinese home buying in the US
Published Tue, Jun 25 2019 7:27 PM EDTUpdated 24 min ago
Grace Shao
@Gracemzshao


The downtown skyline of Los Angeles, California.
Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images
   
Key Points

    U.S. property sales to Chinese buyers saw a 4% drop from 2017 to 2018, according to Chinese foreign property sales site Juwai.com.
    In fact, Chinese buyer enquiries on U.S. property were down 27.5% in the first quarter of 2019 from the comparable year-ago period, says Juwai.com CEO Carrie Law.
    Beyond the trade war, China’s tightening grip on capital outflows has cast a shadow over outbound investment.

US-HOUSING-ECONOMY

Chinese home buyers last year ponied up much less cash in the U.S. as the trade war continues to escalate between the world’s two largest economies.

As President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping prepare to meet this week, there are worries that decline in spending could extend further.

U.S. property sales to Chinese buyers saw a 4% drop from 2017 to 2018, according to numbers provided by Juwai.com, China’s largest foreign property sales site.

“The worsening trade relationship between China and the US may cause Chinese investors to shift their presence into other key markets,” property consultancy Knight Frank said in a report. It suggested that investment can instead go to major cities in Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom, according to the firm’s 2019 Wealth Report.
VIDEO04:29
How China could use its massive US debt holdings as a trade war weapon

American properties have been struggling with international investors overall: All foreign spending on U.S. homes fell by 25% in 2018, according Juwai.com.

U.S. homes have long been a favorite among Chinese foreign property buyers. But that’s increasingly less of a sure thing amid the escalating trade tensions and China’s tighter controls on money leaving the country.
Trade war and travel warnings

As the trade war between Washington and Beijing has been dragging on for just over a year, “Chinese buyer enquiries for US property were down in four out of the five last quarters,” said Juwai.com CEO Carrie Law.

“In the first quarter (of 2019), Chinese buyer enquiries on U.S. property were down 27.5% from a year earlier,” she said. “Meanwhile, they were up in Canada, the UK, Australia, and Japan, all of which are often considered alternative destinations to the United States.”

But the trade war isn’t the only factor driving the decline. Official warnings about U.S.-China travel are likely also pressuring spending.

“Travel warnings are part of an overall environment of negativity between the two countries that is discouraging Chinese property buyers from investing in the U.S.” Law said.
The U.S. flag flies at a welcoming ceremony between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in 2017.
Getty Images News | Getty Images

In January 2019, the U.S. Department of State issued a travel warning on China, suggesting citizens visiting China to “exercise increased caution in China due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws as well as special restrictions on dual U.S.-Chinese nationals.” China then respond by issuing a safety warning in June for Chinese citizens and companies in the U.S. to “raise awareness, strengthen preventative measures and respond properly” when traveling and doing business in the United States.

It’s all part of a pattern that’s making the United States less of an appealing destination for Chinese investment.

“We call it the Trump Effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clamp-down on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Law said.

“The Trump Effect is under-cutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for US property” and hurting “the country’s reputation as a safe investment,” she added.
Capital controls

Some experts said the decline in Chinese property purchases in the U.S. can also be attributed to internal pressure in China.

Neil Brookes, Asia Pacific head of capital partners at Knight Frank told CNBC last week that Chinese outbound capital fell 83% in 12 months, “largely due to trade wars and the government trying to stop money leaving the country.”

In the past two years China has been tightening its grip on capital outflows, which “has cast a shadow over outbound investment,” according to a report by Knight Frank.

The introduction of stricter controls has been partly driven by Beijing’s concern about falling foreign exchange reserves, which the Chinese government uses to maintain the value of the yuan. The government has said its crackdown on capital crossing its borders is also part of an attempt to stem graft.
StudioEAST | Getty Images

Foreign home ownership has since then been “classified as a sensitive sector,” according to the Knight Frank 2019 Wealth Report. In other words, investments into “overseas property markets require stringent official approval,” and may attract unwanted attention.
Looking ahead

Despite the declines in property expenditure, Chinese tourist spending has actually increased in the U.S.

According to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, there was a decline in visitors from China in 2018, from 3.2 million to 2.9 million. Those who did visit the country, however, spent more than ever before.

In fact, international visitors from China spent $36.4 billion in the United States in 2018, an increase of 3% when compared to the previous record set in 2017.

The health of the U.S.-China tourist trade may point to a significant cushion for Chinese investment into the United States. And, looking ahead, Law said she expects purchasing American homes will remain attractive to many Chinese.

“Chinese will always be substantial buyers of US property and even now are probably still the largest foreign buyer group in the country,” she said.

“The thing that makes buyers most nervous is uncertainty,” Law added. “If the trade war simply becomes the new normal, or if it is resolved on good terms, you will likely see an increase in Chinese buying in the US. There is still tremendous demand for the US property. It is still the most liquid and appealing market in the world.”

Investors will get their next indication of the trade war’s future when Trump and Xi meet later this week at a G-20 summit in Japan. The U.S. president has said he’ll make a determination about potential new tariffs soon thereafter.

– CNBC’s Huileng Tan contributed to this report.
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